EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIX
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
There's no way they're both mafia together. It's possible both are town, but if we gain information that one of them is mafia, it would clear the other as town I'd say. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 14 2013 17:19 E00e wrote: Hello everyone, my first post! I think the discussion about a semi random lynch or an afk lynch was somewhat pointless because the day is still early and we might find something else to lynch on. In the rare (?) case that we dont get any information we can argue about that again. On that topic I dont think it is reasonable to immediately vote for SagaZ (who suggested afk lynch first) like istandwithmitt did. I like that GGTeMpLaR started giving thoughts about the players in this game, because ultimately we need to do that to find our lynch target. Something else we could and maybe should discuss is when the Cop should come out. Should they come out after checking X Mafia or Y Town or when they are about to be lynched, etc... We dont need to do that on the first day and I dont want to sidetrack the discussion but it is something to keep in mind for the next day or if we run out of things to talk about. I'd like to think this is a pro-town post because I agree with your point about the afk-lynch discussion when we've still got like 36 hours left to decide. I don't know what to make of you siding with istandwithmitt against SagaZ yet as it could mean a lot of different things based on what assumptions I go with. For example: -If SagaZ is mafia and istandwithmitt is town, you could be bussing your mafia under the table OR you could just be getting a good mafia read like another townie. -If SagaZ is town and istandwithmitt is mafia, you could be working with your mafia to go for a relatively easy and suspicious first lynch OR you could just be drawing an incorrect mafia read as a well-meaning townie. And I'm not sure what to make of your last paragraph regarding the cop. According to you, it's too early to discuss lynching afks because we have a lot of time left on Day 1 (which I agree with), but youre willing to go even further and discuss on what circumstances in future days the cop should come out? I'd say it's too early to discuss that as well here, or possibly not even relevant as maybe it's something you should ask your coach. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 14 2013 19:33 nyxnyxnyx wrote: the way i see it: 1. this mafia game is a bronze/wood level game equivalent in LoL so most if not everyone should be a baddie 2. mafia tends to have the upper hand when townies are disorganized / randomly spouting shit 3. townies don't stand a chance without some kind of organization for those reasons, i'm going with whatever Odin suggests since the alternative is to be disorganized and lose anyway. See a lot of what OdinOfPergo is saying has made him my most town read for today but I'm still a bit reserved to go with him as 100% town and just follow him blindly. I'm actually even less comfortable in doing it now that you've said you're okay with doing it. I'm not saying you are mafia with him, because the sheer quantity of information he's been putting out there makes me read him as townie, but it's just a little suspicious in my eyes what you did. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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GGTeMpLaR
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or a and so it's all broken and difficult to read who was quoted saying what without going back to previous pages. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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GGTeMpLaR
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Balla24 - No read, needs more info. Vonthin - Tentative, needs to post more for a better read. OdinOfPergo - Strong town read at this point. I think his logic regarding the afk/lurkers is pro-town and he appears to be genuinely leading town in a good direction. His questioning of points in my posts and asking me for elaboration further leads me to believe he has a pro-town agenda. It's possible he could be mafia at this point but I doubt it. The only suspicion I have on him is resulting from nyxnyxnyx's statement to just follow him. Seuss - Confirmed town. SagaZ - Tentative, needs to post more. His first post could just as much be a misguided town as it could be a mafia. onlywonderboy - Tentative, needs to post more for better read. July617 - Tentative, light mafia read. He hasn't contributed much in regards to reads and mostly just tried to direct town to being more talkative (which I'll grant is a pro town direction), but he didn't actually personally contribute his actions towards this direction (which is the suspicious part). nyxnyxnyx - Moderate mafia read. I don't think blindly following an unconfirmed town, no matter how rational they appear, is something a town should ever want to do. That being said, the fact that his only contribution is pointing us in that direction makes it even more suspicious. I could be misreading a town here but at this point he's the most suspicious person to me outside the SagaZ/istandwithmitt duo. E00e - Tentative, light town read. His one big post could go either way. I like how he defended his thoughts when attacked, but he needs to post more for me to get a better read. istandwithmitt - Suspicious, light mafia read. Not sure what to make of his early aggression against SagaZ. It would definitely help if he posted more. Bereft - No read, needs more info. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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Even if you're completely uncertain on your own reads, it still has the added benefit of giving everyone else a read on you. You've given us nothing. I might have been a little quick to name you my number one mafia though because that is a believable town mistake to make. I'm going to retract my "most susupicious" tag on nyxnyxnyx for now and say that it's between nyxnyxnyx/July617/SagaZ/istandwithmitt at this point. If I had to vote right now though, it would almost 100% be between one of those four. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
##vote: istandwithmitt | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
What do you do? You do the same exact thing on another person. Unless you give something to me to convince me otherwise or someone else fucks up even more (which I think you've raised the bar pretty hard here so that will be difficult), I'm not changing my vote at this point. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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the irony... | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 15 2013 04:42 istandwithmitt wrote: Yeah sorry for posting about who I think is scum. That's not the issue. The issue is your reasons are lackluster and you've only made two posts in this entire thread. Early on people have pinged you as suspicious and why they think that and you didn't respond to any of them. I encourage you, nay I challenge you to actually put some thought into this game and convince me you're town, or at the very least that someone else is a better lynch at this point. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 15 2013 04:47 istandwithmitt wrote: I just posted who I think is scum. I'm not going to try & convince people I'm town (hint: it's because it's impossible). If you think I'm scum, you should have a reason for it & not "LOL wtf." Hope this helps! I and many others have given reasons for being suspicious of you. If you're town this game, you're just not trying. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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I'm sorry if my vote post on you was disrespectful I just thought it came from nowhere. I expected the next post you would make would address at least one of the people who pinged you as suspicious. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 15 2013 11:27 Bereft wrote: ok i'm back. reading thru the thread, i'd like to caution people against jumping on the mitt vote. i think what we need to decide on is whether we want to (a) vote a useless townie who might be scum or (b) vote an active townie who we have a strong scum read on. the reason why i'd caution town to vote mitt is because before the game even started, i was doing some joke votes and istandwithmitt goes: if we had gotten our pm's at this point, i would have thought this was some miserable scum play. but role pm's hadn't even been sent out at that point! so in conclusion, just keep in mind his in-game posting seems much in line with his pre-game posting. i think worst case if by the end of d1 we don't see a strong scum case against anyone in particular, mitt is an easy candidate. however given that we have another 24 hours at this point, let's not get pigeon-holed on mitt as there may be stronger candidates out there. i for one would perhaps put Vonthin and GGTemplar in that list, depending on what kind of posts they make in the next 24 hours. not necessarily saying i think they're scum at the moment, but i would like to hear more from them. the reason i'm singling these 2 out atm is because GGTemplar randomly hones into a pretty mild exchange between Sagaz and mitt and starts postulating about in what scenarios Sagaz is mafia or mitt is mafia, but them both being mafia are mutually exclusive. this seems like either an attempt to appear helpful while not being helpful at all, or a misguided attempt to be helpful, as their exchange seemed pretty minor / un-noteworthy and he's not providing any real analysis but more like game theory. as for Vonthin, all he does is jump upon the RNG proposal with a massive amount of risk aversion. in this kind of situation, i'm inclined to find mafia to be more risk averse than a townie. as mafia, you'd like to avoid being in the hot seat at any cost possible, whereas as town, my general feeling is that i'm less afraid of being scrutinized because i have nothing to hide. Vonthin also seems to completely miss the fact that Odin isn't actually proposing an RNG, but implicitly proposing RNG as a means to an end -- as a tool to force people to do their best to wriggle out of the hot seat. I really liked this post, in particular your criticism of me, as about as pro town as it gets. Looking back on my analysis of SagaZ/istandwithmitt, it actually does appear like I'm grasping for something to contribute and so I fully understand your judgment of it as either being mafia or misguided town. I would obviously say it was the latter of these two possibilities, but I'm surprised that you're the first person to actually point this out (playerboy345 sort of prodded me for my reasons a little bit, but didn't fully flesh out his thoughts like you). Although I dislike your quick followup post throwing July617 into the batch of your highest scum reads with Vonthin and myself (mainly because it seemed like a pretty weak read after your explanation of why you think Vonthin and I are mafia), I am honestly reading you more town than OdinOfPergo because the information, reads, and reasoning behind your reads are much more clearly presented and concise. July617's post that led to your judgment was somewhat off as well, so I am not going to judge you too harshly regarding that, but you're the closest thing to confirmed town to me without actually being confirmed town at this point. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 15 2013 17:25 Seuss wrote: We don't actually need every last poster giving a full list of reads. In fact, it's a fairly decent way for mafia members to look productive without actually contributing anything useful. The thread is also drawing very quiet, which is good news for the mafia, so I'm going to incite some discussion. At this point I believe istandwithmitt is just an absolutely terrible player/communicator. He's confrontational, dogmatic, egotistical, and generally a pain in the butt, but he's drawn way, way more negative attention to himself than makes sense for mafia. Bereft is right that we should be focusing on finding other targets right now. To that end, I believe the two most likely mafia players are SagaZ and July617. I'll present each case in turn. + Show Spoiler [SagaZ] + While he was the first player to post following the start of the game, he's been a sparse participant since. His first post immediately drew suspicion for a number of reasons. 1. Despite its word count it's actually very light on content. 2. The actual suggestions contained within are highly questionable. Observe: On October 14 2013 11:26 SagaZ wrote: As a disclaimer early, I think we should all agree on something. We are all newbies here, so if you fuck up or say something dumb, don't play the "oh sorry, I am new I didn't know". [/color] [color=green]Seuss is our confirmed town, we should try to organize around him. For a day 1 lynch, I think lynching some1 innactive is the best way to go.[/color] Having innactive players around just give mafia the opportunity to sit back and do nothing while town runs around screaming at each other. So give information about yourself if you can, so that others will be able to read you easy. My stance this early is easy: I will vote for people that post nothing worthy or nothing at all, unless some1 slips. I am also more likely to vote for people that say suspicious stuff and then say "sorry I didn't know I am new" SagaZ spends both the first and last paragraphs primarily rambling about how people shouldn't play the newbie card. If all he really wanted to do was encourage newbies to post, as he later claimed, he could easily have done so with a far more positive tone. He doesn't sound like he's encouraging newbies as much as discouraging them. While he does make two seemingly reasonable suggestions, they are obvious and ultimately counter-productive. As the sole confirmed townie in the game, my lifespan is likely to be short. Rallying around me exclusively would simply set the town up for trouble upon my inevitable death. Similarly, lynching players who'll simply be modkilled does nothing for the town either. So SagaZ' first post discouraged activity and made no useful suggestions. That's enough to arouse suspicion, but not to conclude he is mafia. That brings us to his second post: On October 14 2013 20:11 SagaZ wrote: Of course I meant lurker lynch, afkers will get modkilled after all. If one guy is not saying anything in the thread or very little, but still turn out to vote for people without giving reasoning... that would be very scum telling to me. I guess it is fairly obvious to everyone, but pointing it out will make them talk whether they want it or not, and that gives information. I took the opportunity of the first post to basically say "game started, don't hide behind your inexperience and post". For town to win we need 2 thing: - Get everyone active - Organize around our confirmed towny Seuss @nyxnyxnyx: Care to explain why you trust Odin? Him being so hyper posty makes me nervous but he actually present points for us to discuss on, which creates discussion and is therefore good for town. It is weird to me at least that you come in, decide to side with odin even thought we have a confirmed townie. In this post he claims he meant "lurker" when he said "inactive". However, in his first post he clearly stated that his potential vote targets included those who posted "nothing at all". SagaZ is backpedaling here, and making it seem reasonable by repeating the reasoning that undermined his previous position. He also very carefully drops his excuse for the weird newbie-discouraging rambling at the end of an unrelated paragraph, burying it. "Getting everyone active" is an important step for towns looking to win, but SagaZ doesn't actually have any suggestions on how to do that, and doesn't participate enough himself. He again says everyone should organize around me, also without suggesting how or acknowledging the obvious flaw in the strategy (e.g. I'm a dead man walking). Finally, he ends the post promoting discord. While nyxnyxnyx' decision to trust Odin could have used some additional vetting, at that point Odin was at the nexus of a fairly chaotic argument, and rallying behind his "let's randomly pick someone and put them in the hotseat to get information flowing" idea would have killed a lot of the useless chatter while promoting helpful discussion. Questioning nyxnyxnyx at this point only served to perpetuate the pointless debate, and promote distrust. SagaZ third post was entirely inconsequential, and above analysis. His fourth post at least pretended to have substance: On October 15 2013 05:02 SagaZ wrote: First impressions: going into this I was feeling most uncomfortable with nyxnyxnyx, blindly following some1 sounds like a pretty bad idea for a town, and especially stating it in the thread sounds more to me like he was trying to get onto OdinOfPergo's good side. And the I read istandwithmitt's post and I'm like wtf. He voted for me at the beginning and I thought it was alright, aggressive play-style pointing fingers early to get some heat and get the discussion going, but then instead of making use of it he just go silent. And now this switcharoo vote with no explanation and abrasive behavior? There are a lot of words in this post, but it essentially says nothing. The entire latter half is a rehash of what everyone else had already said about istandwithmitt. The former half mostly repeats his previous misgivings about nyxnyxnyx' decision, adding an extra touch of distrust of both nyx and Odin. No progress towards anything happens over the course of these paragraphs. Finally, there's SagaZ latest post: On October 15 2013 05:20 SagaZ wrote: I'd like to hear what playerboy345 has to say to Istandwithmitt's accusations; just complete the weird triangle between them 2 and E00e. At this point debating with istandwithmitt was utterly pointless, whoever was doing it. I had said as much earlier. Promoting a useless discussion is never helpful to the town. It is for these reasons that I believe SagaZ has a very high probability of being mafia, and is worthy of a lynching. + Show Spoiler [July617] + July has posted 6 times since the game began (I'm excluding his edit explanation and apology), and he's made a solid point once. Look for yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766&user=July617 The only useful contribution he's made was his response to Odin's confusing RNG plan. At the time Odin's confusing manner of communicating made it seem like the plan was to randomly select someone, lynch them, and call it a day. That ultimately wasn't what Odin was aiming for, but at the time it seemed that way and if July hadn't responded as he did someone else would have. Which brings us to his other 5 posts. They all say essentially the same thing, "I don't want to lynch anyone yet, let's wait and talk more." If everyone was jumping to conclusions in the first four hours istandwithmitt style that might have been fine, but with practically half our time spent he's still waiting for a sign from God (or is it the Godfather?). The only player who has contributed less is Balla24, who hasn't posted at all. Keeping his head this low, and trying to keep people deferring the lynching decision as long as possible, makes it a high probability that July617 is mafia. Until such time as either or both of these individuals has a convincing defense established, it's my preference that we lynch one of them over istandwithmitt, much as it pains me. While I respect and relate to your judgment of istandwithmitt, I think if there's ever a day where we can afford to lynch the weakest town instead of a mafia, it's day 1. If he's mafia at this point, then all is well. If he's town, then I think it's better we get rid of him now rather than let him end up in the final 3 and remain a target of suspicion - in addition to the possibility that his seemingly arbitrary reads could end up being the final deciding vote on who is mafia or not. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 15 2013 21:12 playerboy345 wrote: Okay so you think he is pro-town because a first post and because he agrees on something with you? I'm sorry, I don't agree with your read here. So instead of analysing this post word for word (I barely slept today and I don't want to delay this post too much as I want to put some content out there) I'll just ask you why you are so sure that either SagaZ OR istwithandmitt are scum (and why they can't be scum mates) Short answer, I'm not anymore. It was a poor attempt to contribute some analysis on my part. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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I still think istandwithmitt is the better lynch for today though as he is just going to be dead-weight unless he drastically changes his play. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 16 2013 00:43 nyxnyxnyx wrote: Because Odin probably knows how to play this game better than I do and he's voting for him right now. If you're town, please stop this line of reasoning. Think for yourself and give your own reasons for voting or reading the way you do. "X did it too" isn't justifiable town play. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 16 2013 06:10 playerboy345 wrote: Okay, so there is a chance he is not a cop, but it still annoys the crap out of me, why would you EVER discuss anything related to cops on the beginning of day 1? It just doesn't make sense to me, if you need information about such stuff you should ask your coach. Perfectly reasonable, not at the start of day 1 though. And yes I jumped on him because I read it as soft-claiming cop, which is as you will most likely agree, retarded to do at day 1. Also even though it may not matter all that much in this game, you played mafia with me last game and should sort of know my playstyle, I wouldn't try to gain town cred by jumping on someone but I'd use other methods. Why do you feel the need to point this out? It might be just me but I feel like you are trying too hard to look towny. (It looks like a similair mistake I made in my first game where I was mafia.) I don't necessarily agree, yes mitt's way of playing is extremely ballsy/annoying/not pro-town but playing that way as a SK would be risky and I feel like a non-risky pretending to be pro-town way of playing is the way to go. I might be wrong ofcourse but I think he is more of an annoying troll then a SK. I truly have the feeling he will flip town, there is just way too many people bandwagoning on him because he is such an easy target. Just leave him be for today, maybe he'll get modkilled or killed by a vigi. is it possible to vote for a modkill? onlywonderboy, you better start posting if you don't want this ending for you the same way it did in your first game. You are low on content, again and it really doesn't help your case. -I honestly think he was just making a newb mistake and that he should have asked a coach or mod. You completely overreacted to nothing. -I don't see how you think he was soft-claiming cop at all. You soft-claim cop by going really hard on your mafia check or defending your town check really hard. Being that there was no Night0, cop would have no checks at this point and so there would be no reason to soft claim Day1. -I think it's pretty obvious why he's pointing it out here. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 16 2013 18:57 SagaZ wrote: I guess there is some mafia in this vote participant, so the people here should be under some scrutiny. Aside from Seuss from this group, my strongest town read is Bereft. Even though Vonthin was a miss lynch, his reasoning looked strong and prevented the mitt super band wagon. My strongest scum reads: nyx and onlywonderboy. I have said it and will repeat it, they give us absolutely nothing to work with and jump on the easy lynch train. Still looks mafia but less than the 2 above: playerboy345, less than the others for the sole reason that he gave a bit more to work with. Again, what I really really hate about his posts is how hard he goes on E00e for what E00e said (which looked like an honest newby mistake to me). He says talking about blues is a big nono this early in the game (which is perfectly resonable) but then he proceed so damn hard on it that at this point he's been the one talking about it more than the rest. I also don't like the timing of his post, after Seuss brough some order to the town discussion by asking to focus on me and july, player comes in and repeat his grief on E00e. Looks a bit like he was trying to sidetrack the discussion to me. He still reads less scummy than the 2 above to me, honestly what I say about the timing might be absolutly nothing and just how his timezone works. My post looks dedicated to him because I think I already made my view on wonderboy and nyx in my earlier post but not really on him. I think there is a good chance to be like 1 or 2 scums in the people that voted Vorthin. So from my perspective, I'd really like to hear nyxnyxnyx, onlywonderboy and player345. Because right now I'd feel comfortable going for either of those. Bereft's toughs would be good too, especially cause so far he has been helping the town I think. And to end on a side note, how does everyone stands on mitt now? Cause I am now very fking confused... ~I'm a lot less certain of Bereft as town after Vonthin flipped town. Based on all his posts, he seems like an intelligent player which makes me skeptical of why he was willing to risk a miss-lynch on a potentially useful town versus a probably useless town. His reasons made sense, I just feel like my reasons for istandwithmitt were a much safer play that made more sense. You pointing out that he prevented the "istandwithmitt" bandwagon is a little ironic considering that the vote just became a "Vonthin" bandwagon that everyone jumped on instead. ~I actually agree with you that there are likely one, maybe even two mafia in the vote. However, unlike you, the only person I'm willing to write off at this point is the confirmed town Seuss. onlywonderboy still hasn't contributed enough for me to get any sort of read on him. I find your criticism of playerboy345 for tunneling E00e somewhat inconsistent. Yes, playerboy345 completely overreacted, but I think you're looking too much into it given your willingness to tunnel on nyxnyxnyx for his blind following of OdinOfPergo. I was the first person to point suspicion onto nyxnyxnyx for his lap dog play towards OdinOfPergo and it made me highly suspicious of both of them despite what I believe to be OdinOfPergo's pro-town play this game. However, it isn't enough to commit to nyxnyxnyx being mafia as quickly as you seem willing to. This point, combined with your continued faith in Bereft makes me actually suspicious of a Bereft-SagaZ connection just as much as I am of a nyxnyxnyx-OdinOfPergo connection, if not more-so. I want to note it could be possible in either of these connections that there is just one mafia buddying-up to a town and it isn't necessary that if one of the partners in the pair is mafia, that the other need be either. However, these connections are definitely worth noting and looking into. Regarding playerboy345 and E00e, I would like more information to go off of, but I am definitely more comfortable lite-reading E00e as town at this point and I'm unsure on whether playerboy345 is the possible 3rd mafia in one of the two pairs I just listed. Another possibility for the 3rd mafia could be July617, however, I'm more comfortable with him as town at this point. If anyone else besides the confirmed town had said this first, I would be almost certain that July617 was mafia with the person who said it: On October 16 2013 07:46 Seuss wrote: If Vonthin flips Mafia we can read a lot into people's votes. If he flips town we can be pretty certain July isn't mafia, which will cease the abusing relationship between his head and his desk I am at fault for. -I'm not confused about istandwithmitt, but I don't really know what to do with him now. Lynching a weak, non-contributing town seems like a perfectly safe Day 1 lynch, but after that you really need to raise the bar to targeting actual mafia rather than trimming the fat on town. | ||
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On October 16 2013 22:11 Balla24 wrote: I also have a town read on E00, and that's probably my best town read. This guy has been solid in his reasoning and I like his plays in reaction to playerboy's call out. Very nice, IMO. I do want to revisit the Playerboy -> E00 situation. Playerboy, how do you read that as a soft-claim? He was genuinely trying to start a discussion on when cop should come out because that's an easy way for scum to slip and for scum to give a town-like opinion on something (which is better than not saying anything at all). It's a common way to start some conversation on day1. The fact that you were so angry at the fact that he did that really makes me think you're trying to gain town cred for flipping out over some small mistake. Also I'd like to hear about why you think E00 saying "i'm not going to confirm or deny i'm cop" is bad as well. If he's a good townie he has to debunk your "soft-claiming talk" whether he is cop or he is not. As far as nyx. ATM he is my highest scum read and I will push for him today as long as nothing changes during this nightphase/nightactions. Nyx, why did you think Vonthin was mafia? What specifically did you not like about his small defense (things he didn't mention etc etc)? Why was switching his vote to you the last nail in the coffin for you for him being scum? ~While I like your town read on E00e, my reasons are completely different as I mostly read his posts as naive (but genuine) town. What I am noting however is that you in general seem to have the same reads as SagaZ and seem to be giving the same reasons SagaZ gave, which makes you a likely 3rd mafia in my hypothetical SagaZ-Bereft connection. Those reads being: -you like E00e and dislike playerboy345 for his pressure on E00e. -you scum read hard on nyxnyxnyx You didn't really say you town-read on Bereft, which would seal the deal for me, but saying nothing on them is mildly suspicious as well. What are your thoughts on Bereft and why? I'd also like to hear Bereft's thoughts on SagaZ and Balla24 at this point. | ||
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On October 17 2013 01:00 istandwithmitt wrote: Hey this is a really scummy post. Can you guys tell me why? Why don't you explain it because I thought it was the most pro-town post in the thread so far, which I continue to think after reading this latest post of yours being followed by a vote on me without any reasons whatsoever besides "I think it's scummy". | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 17 2013 02:42 istandwithmitt wrote: Pls you dont need to curse. I just want you guys to try & look at things that are scummy rather than getting in big rants about how people don't post enough. ggtemplar is talking about how its a good thing to lynch someone you think is town (hint: it never is) & this is from someone who has been convinced I'm scummy all game. He then justifies that "if I am town" (hint: he has been saying that he thinks I'm scum all game) that I'm still a good lynch. Basically, he's pushing a lynch on someone a lot of people think is town & then preparing for when I flip town but justifying it as a good lynch. Basically, he's going to get a townie lynched but no worries, it was a good thing for a town! I think ggtemplar knows I'm town & is trying to hedge his position for when I flip town. Well, see ya. When did I ever say I thought you were scum all game? I was initially suspicious of both you and SagaZ based on your one initial post and then several pages of silence. When you made your reappearance, I was pretty convinced whether you were town or mafia, you were the safest lynch for the town because you were making poor contributions without any reasons behind them. I'd disagree that it's never safe play to lynch a weak town and I gave my reasons for why lynching a horrendously weak town is safe play on Day 1. | ||
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On October 17 2013 03:40 istandwithmitt wrote: Maybe. There's no point in conjecturing a bunch of "what ifs." I think his line of thinking is really scummy & it's independent of July or SagaZ possible alignments. If he flips scum, it would be worth looking at but considering neither is in serious of danger of being lynched atm, I think it's just as likely that he might have just been deflecting off town onto a townie he's been pushing for a while. This was actually a pro-town post with proper reasoning for your thoughts. More of this and I think town isn't in nearly as crappy of a position as I thought we would be in if you end up in the final 3. | ||
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On October 17 2013 05:34 Seuss wrote: Also, GGTeMpLaR do us a favor and read all the posts, then respond. Watching you post like this is like watching someone reacting to the bombinb of Pearl Harbor as if it happened today. I'll do that in the future. | ||
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On October 17 2013 06:04 SagaZ wrote: So GGTemplar, you posted that you think I'm in some kind of scum pair with Bereft and you put that higher than the nyx-odin pair? That makes no sense, I gave my reason why I think Bereft is town. People that voted for the miss lynch are suspicious, there should be at least one mafia, possibly two. If I take myself and seuss from that group (I am explaining my toughs, so this is of course from my perspective) among those people we have Bereft, Nyxnyxnyx, Onlywonderboy and Player345. Are you honestly trying to say that you think that Bereft is more suspicious than Nyx at this point? Or more than Onlywonderboy? the 2 guys that haven't really said anything. More suspicious than player345? maybe you have a different point of view than mine and maybe you see things differently, but I highly doubt that there are 3 or more mafias in this vote group, so therefore, from my perspective Bereft looks town. Of course I am not going to sheep on him like nyx did with Odin... Just that I might be more inclined to roll with plans if they come from him. And before you twist my words, of course Seuss takes priority planning wise. I'd say that If Seuss is 100% town, for me Bereft looks like a 75% On October 17 2013 06:04 SagaZ wrote: So GGTemplar, you posted that you think I'm in some kind of scum pair with Bereft and you put that higher than the nyx-odin pair? That makes no sense, I gave my reason why I think Bereft is town. People that voted for the miss lynch are suspicious, there should be at least one mafia, possibly two. If I take myself and seuss from that group (I am explaining my toughs, so this is of course from my perspective) among those people we have Bereft, Nyxnyxnyx, Onlywonderboy and Player345. Are you honestly trying to say that you think that Bereft is more suspicious than Nyx at this point? Or more than Onlywonderboy? the 2 guys that haven't really said anything. More suspicious than player345? maybe you have a different point of view than mine and maybe you see things differently, but I highly doubt that there are 3 or more mafias in this vote group, so therefore, from my perspective Bereft looks town. Of course I am not going to sheep on him like nyx did with Odin... Just that I might be more inclined to roll with plans if they come from him. And before you twist my words, of course Seuss takes priority planning wise. I'd say that If Seuss is 100% town, for me Bereft looks like a 75% You know, I hadn't fully caught up to the thread when I made that post, in particular I hadn't read this yet: On October 17 2013 03:42 Bereft wrote: I actually don't think nyx has a lot of explaining to do, as some of you have put it. it's not a strong read, but I peg him as town right now. all he's done is shown a lack of confidence + some major sheeping, but his voting patterns actually are what make me skeptical that he'd be mafia. I'll reread when I get home tonight, but off the top of my head, he (a) showed an easy willingness to hammer someone who ultimately turned out to be town (mafia would've known vonthin would flip green and that hammering him the way nyx did would put them in a very bad light) and (b) encouraged us not to switch votes at the last minute (reinforces point a). just some food for thought... Which is a moderate defense of nyxnyxnyx. I'm currently trying to draw connections between players and this connection between Bereft defending nyxnyxnyx, nyxnyxnyx who is buddying up to OdinOfPergo, and OdinOfPergo who is suspicious of nyxnyxnyx is going to force me to rethink the lines I've drawn. | ||
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I think it will be best if I just wait for tonight's kill before I get lost in theorycrafting again as it will provide a lot of useful information about what lines should be drawn where. | ||
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On October 17 2013 06:46 istandwithmitt wrote: Yeah, this is exactly what I'm talking about. If you look at his post history, almost all of his stuff is about how I'm scum until he started convincing whoever that I was a good lynch even if I was town. In this post he seems to disagree with his stance & says he doesn't care what alignment I am but that I should be lynched either way & then makes a justification for if I flip town. Basically, this dude is distancing himself more & more from his reads & setting up if/when I flip town. The fact that he keeps steering closer & closer to how it's good to lynch me if I'm town rather than why we should because I'm scum, makes it pretty evident that he knows what I'm going to flip & that it's town. For real, this guy should be lynched tomorrow. ggtemplar if you'd be so kind I'd like to know what your thoughts on playerboy345 is. Thanks in advance! I didn't convince anyone you were a good lynch even as town. You convinced everyone you were a good lynch when your 2nd-5th? posts were garbage. Fortunately for you, Bereft came in and redirected town onto someone else. I like that you're adding more content to your post but you seriously need to go back and reread these posts because your information is wrong. This was your second post after 4-5 pages of silence. On October 15 2013 04:35 istandwithmitt wrote: ##vote: playerboy345 This guy is posting nothingness. Trying to get people to make calls while actually providing nothing wrt scumminess of players. You all can bandwagon this vote, no worries. Well, see ya Please reread pages 13 and 14 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766¤tpage=13 You buried yourself with your lack of quality posts and non-existing reasons for your seemingly arbitrary reads. It's another 4 pages after you haven't posted anything since your tirade besides voting for yourself and giving up that I posted this: On October 16 2013 08:48 GGTeMpLaR wrote: While I respect and relate to your judgment of istandwithmitt, I think if there's ever a day where we can afford to lynch the weakest town instead of a mafia, it's day 1. If he's mafia at this point, then all is well. If he's town, then I think it's better we get rid of him now rather than let him end up in the final 3 and remain a target of suspicion - in addition to the possibility that his seemingly arbitrary reads could end up being the final deciding vote on who is mafia or not. | ||
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But as the pages went on, many people seemed to get stuck on his play here and wouldn't move past it (and actually bandwagon restated my initial thoughts on the matter, constantly bringing up his reasons for thinking the soft-claim was weak), which I found suspicious because while playerboy345's actions towards E00e were suspicious, I didn't find them damning him as a mafia, and found the continued restating of what I had already said to be fluff. Right now I have a light read on playerboy345 as mafia, but he would be my 3rd mafia pick at the moment behind other stronger connections I have already noted as possibilities. Depending on who dies tonight though, he actually might be the safest kill if I can see him being the 3rd mafia in multiple hypothetical scenarios. | ||
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Who do you think is the 3rd mafia with us and why? | ||
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On October 17 2013 13:17 Seuss wrote: All that said, nyxnyxnyx might have made a next level play. Who'd suspect the guy who blindly followed Odin to murder him! I want to think that this isn't the case because it just seems like it's too risky a play to make, but I'm not certain. In light of the night's kills of confirmed town, my thoughts of OdinOfPergo being in mafia connections with nyxnyxnyx make little sense, however I still think it's possible that nyxnyxnyx was trying to buddy up to him. However, when OdinOfPergo made it clear he wasn't going to be easily pocketed and targeted suspicion on nyxnyxnyx, he could have become more of a liability than an asset. At this point, I think there is a lot of suspicion on nyxnyxnyx, and rightly so. However, I wouldn't immediately write him off as a SK without looking at his connections and reads, especially in the early game. Early on in the first 6 pages, nyxnyxnyx was the target of suspicion from SagaZ. He was defended by Seuss, our confirmed town. Further, nyxnyxnyx jumped onto the train to vote istandwithmitt, even though he noted he didn't think istandwithmitt was mafia. When Bereft questioned his vote here, he buddy'd up to OdinOfPergo, which resulted in a quick vote on nyxnyxnyx from Vonthin. nyxnyxnyx immediately responded by swapping his vote onto Vonthin. E00e responded by voting on nyxnyxnyx and placed secondary scum reads on onlywonderboy as well. (I think it wouldn't be too far out there if when a mafia pinged two people like this early on, the hard ping would go on a town and the soft ping on a mafia, noting a possible E00e-onlywonderboy connection). A page later SagaZ chimes in that he thinks both nyxnyxnyx and Vonthin both appear scummy, in addition to elaborating on a detailed "serial killer theory" targeted at istandwithmitt. (which actually makes me want to think SagaZ a likely candidate for Serial Killer, although analyzing his connections would be important before we go down that road similar to what I am trying to do with nyxnyxnyx right now). On page 18, we see activity from Balla24 rejecting a vote on July617/Vonthin and targeting nyxnyxnyx instead - and Seuss pinged this action for lacking in detail (given that we know Vonthin is town now, this could indicate a Balla24/July617 connection). nyxnyxnyx posts again on page 19 after a long silence: On October 16 2013 10:32 nyxnyxnyx wrote: Keep vote on Vonthin, we're voting againt each other. If he flips mafia you can work with that info, if he's town I'll have to make a new case for myself OdinOfPergo pings him as suspicious (noting that it's possible this is where he believed OdinOfPergo was becoming a liability who couldn't be pocketed or buddy'd up to). And page 20, we get this gem of either extremely poor town play, or suspicious behavior: On October 16 2013 23:06 nyxnyxnyx wrote: 1. i wanted to go with whatever odin was going for. i have explained why in previous post. that was istandwithmitt 2. i put up the vote since i was gona sleep in a bit (vote would close at ~10am next morning, might not wake up before then) 3. people complained about my blind voting because i expressed that i personally did not think istandwithmitt was mafia (and i still think so). vonthin changed his vote to me on that feeling, and i thought well fuck you im voting you bitch 4. that is all Further pings against nyxnyxnyx are made by SagaZ/OdinOfPero/Balla24/Seuss on page 20. And with that, I'm going to summarize my thoughts so far because I think unless you think nyxnyxnyx is mafia with myself (who pinged him early on, then backed off and grew more suspicious of everyone else going so hard on him), he probably isn't mafia. It's possible one of the people going hard on him in this look-back is his mafia partner bus-ing him, but I think it's much more likely at this point that either he's acting alone as a Serial Killer or a misguided/unlucky town. These are my comprehensive thoughts on nyxnyxnyx. More coming soon. | ||
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On October 18 2013 02:08 Seuss wrote:
I think the only individual on this list I'm fully sold on at this point is Bereft. Even though I was growing suspicious of him at the end of Day 1 and it's possible he is scum who just faked getting Roleblock'd, the odds are not worth considering at this point when there's much better lynches and it's much more likely that he's a town at this point. I'm not fully sold on istandwithmitt as town. I think it's likely if he was mafia, given how poorly he was playing, his mafia would have been more than willing to throw him under the bus at that point. There's a slight possibility of him as a Serial Killer at this point, but I'd say nyxnyxnyx is a much more likely choice. That being said, I've liked July617 and onlywonderboy as probable town the entire game - granted the lack of quantity of their posting and reads makes me skeptical to consider them hard town reads. Regarding onlywonderboy, I noted in my previous post a possible weak connection between onlywonderboy and E00e. Now, Balla24's most recent post throws himself and onlywonderboy together in a town circle with you, which creates a Balla24-onlywonderboy connection: On October 18 2013 02:42 Balla24 wrote: I would put onlywonderboy in a circle with me you bereft. I get a good feeling from him. He's playing very similarly to last game where he got lynched for it. Bereft might not be willing to let him slide for it again but I am. I think he would change a bit if he was scum. At this point, it's worth going back to the early game and looking for any Balla24-onlywonderboy interactions or lack-there-of. They don't interact at all until page 20 where Balla24 calls onlywonderboy quiet and they don't give any reads on each other. Balla24 then directly asks onlywonderboy of his thoughts on E00e/playerboy345 and onlywonderboy responds by placing heavy suspicion on playerboy345: On October 17 2013 02:56 onlywonderboy wrote: playerboy definitely seemed to overreact to that whole situation. Much like you I didn't read e00s post as a soft claim. I want to hear playerboy's reasoning as to why he read it as a soft claim. Simply bringing up a role doesn't mean you're soft claiming it. playerboy also seems to be lurking more than he did last game. Last game despite being mafia he was one of the first people to speak up and was active making a lot of people believe he was town (much like Odin this game). Something to explore but a little early to be making scum claims Also, speaking of odin, I want to be careful we don't fall into the same trap we did last game. I was suspicious of playerboy early last game but sat on it because I didn't want to make enemies. I don't want to make the same mistake again. He's pushing july and nyx hard, which look goods on paper, but if either of them end up turning town if we lynch them, I think that looks bad for odin. I think if there is a E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24 mafia circle at this point, this post says a lot. He would clearly know July617 and nyxnyxnyx are town at this point and that if one of them flips town, him having said this could be used as an argument against playerboy345 in the next round. If nyxnyxnyx actually is the serial killer, he would still read him as town this game and nyxnyxnyx killing playerboy345 could have unintentionally thwarted his next-day preparations for suspicion on playerboy345. For the rest of Day 1, onlywonderboy and Balla24 don't touch each other. At this point, going back and looking for more connections between E00e-onlywonderboy and E00e-Balla24 could provide useful information that could either affirm or deny my suspicions of this trio as a likely mafia circle. Granted, I still need to analyze SagaZ and July617 as well at this point. To be continued. | ||
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On October 18 2013 02:29 Balla24 wrote: On E00e. I was the first one to call him out on the "cop claim debacle" after playerboy's death. If you think he's scum then I'm not scum with him and vice versa. If it wasn't for him, playerboy might not have gotten shot last night (I do have some part to play in this, but by the time i got back I think the damage was already done) and we might have a check. | ||
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idk why I said strike. | ||
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On October 18 2013 07:29 E00e wrote: @GGTemplar Thats not fair to me. I explicitly say that I dont want to discuss the cop thing again and i question Balla for saying that only one of us two could be mafia. I'm not condemning you as mafia right now. You're just in one of the mafia circles I've come up with as a possibility. Once I get around to including analysis of July617's and SagaZ's early game play, I'll likely have two or three mafia circles to work with with hopefully a possible overlap as being the most safe lynch for the day. In all fairness though, you questioning Balla24 for saying that doesn't exactly clear you both from being mafia together. | ||
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These are obviously not going to be infallible circles and I could be wrong, but they're the best I have to go with. | ||
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pg 8 istandwithmitt instantly jumped on Sagaz after his post. Given istandwithmitt's wildcard play this game, what he did here could mean anything. July617 jumped onto istandwithmitt for his play. Maybe be defending SagaZ here, maybe not. Then a series of RNG arguments I still have trouble understanding due to formatting so I will move past them. pg 10 E00e says it isn't reasonable to immediately vote for Sagaz (which is actually a fair point), then proceeds to say he likes my giving thoughts (which I find a little off because my initial thoughts were pretty stupid as player345 and Bereft eventually pointed out). July617 has a brief exchange with E00e On October 14 2013 17:29 July617 wrote: I dont think anyone is sidetracked, I just think we need to talk more so we can get idea's of the active players and a direction in which to go towards . Preferably a sane one. Doesn't really mean much, it's just fluff. player345 explodes on E00e. July617 interjects to calm player345/E00e exchange down. SagaZ elaborates more on his initial post with some possible extrapolation. pg 13 istandwithmitt switches off SagaZ onto playerboy345 without reason. Unsure what to make of this wildcard play still. onlywonderboy comments on his bad play but notes it could be bad town or bad mafia. Can't make anything of this. Next page istandwithmitt elaborates he thinks playerboy345 is scummier than SagaZ without reason. SagaZ makes a vague post questioning istandwithmitt's play that almost feels suspiciously forced On October 15 2013 05:02 SagaZ wrote: First impressions: going into this I was feeling most uncomfortable with nyxnyxnyx, blindly following some1 sounds like a pretty bad idea for a town, and especially stating it in the thread sounds more to me like he was trying to get onto OdinOfPergo's good side. And the I read istandwithmitt's post and I'm like wtf. He voted for me at the beginning and I thought it was alright, aggressive play-style pointing fingers early to get some heat and get the discussion going, but then instead of making use of it he just go silent. And now this switcharoo vote with no explanation and abrasive behavior? SagaZ further hypothesizes a "weird triangle" between playerboy345/istandwithmitt/E00e. (?) July617 town reads OdinOfPergo, says this as well ? On October 15 2013 07:39 July617 wrote: like i said again in a previous post we should be talking more but like E00e said we'll have a hard time finding mafia without actual evidence to back it up . So i've really got nothing so far. I'm just trying to read everyone safely and calmly. Next page, July617 takes an indecisive stance on SagaZ On October 15 2013 18:11 July617 wrote: @seuss I'll give you that , my past five posts over and over again have been the pretty much the same thing, only because I really don't have an idea of who I should focus my attention to. Yes istandwithmitt is an easy lynch because of how he's acting but I believe there are better lynches out there. As to who ? I'm not so sure, I wish i could say SagaZ but he could just be playing bad town . And Whether it is bad town play or he's secretly mafia, I can't lean to either side without an explanation from him . SagaZ very suspicious of nyxnyxnyx. When Seuss pings July617, he wants you to include Vonthin along with July617. Agrees with istandwithmitt on playerboy345 as #1 mafia, deflects off of E00e. #2 mafia read at this point is onlywonderboy. onlywonderboy leans towards July617 as mafia, doesn't want to lynch istandwithmitt (thinks he is just a poor town - common opinion). SagaZ pings istandwithmitt as a Serial Killer or 70% mafia. Says Vonthin is at least defending himself unlike July617 who still hasn't said shit. July617 joins on the istandwithmitt bandwagon. SagaZ elaborates his disapproval of playerboy345's stance on E00e. SagaZ then switches his vote from istandwithmitt to July617 and defends Vonthin. July617 offers a somewhat fluffy emotional defense: On October 16 2013 07:14 July617 wrote: Seus, I have nothing left to give you, Im bashing my head on the desk trying to figure out what I can do to make you see that I am town . I explained my vote on mitt and yet you still seem to believe i'm mafia, even going as far as saying you'd bet your "virtual life" on it . I don't know what to say, I've tried explaining myself but you just continue to call it useless and meaningless, if that's how you see it then so be it . I have nothing else to say to you because It seems like your stuck on this tirade of me being mafia, you asked me for my opinion and i gave it to you . Yeah I jumped on the bandwagon, because at this point mitt is no use to us as a town player, he continues to write even less then myself and he doesn't seem to care anymore, why are we keeping him around then? You're saying he's contributed more than me ? I'm doing what you asked me to do in your previous post, I gave my opinion and now i'm getting attacked again by you for the one thing you wanted me to do . pg 18 Balla24 directs off of Vonthin/July617 onto nyxnyxnyx. However, he then goes on to question Seuss why July617/Vonthin can't be mafia together. SagaZ switches his vote to Vonthin without much reasoning at all. Very suspicious of SagaZ/July617 connection at this point, most solid lead so far to suggest they are together. And with that, Day 1 ends. | ||
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The more likely scenario from this information is a July617-SagaZ connection. There are a lot of "weak" points that cumulatively add up to support this possibility. First, July617's entry into the thread is defending SagaZ from istandwithmitt. Later, the quoted July617 post on SagaZ is a 100% tentative read on SagaZ. Next, when Seuss pings July617 as a likely mafia candidate, SagaZ suggests that he should include Vonthin as well for acting no different than July617. Now this is where it gets tricky - SagaZ likes how Vonthin is trying to defend himself and dislikes how July617 isn't even trying to defend himself, so SagaZ switches his vote from istandwithmitt to July617. When July617 makes his large post which is mostly an appeal to emotion with little to no substance what-so-ever, SagaZ switches his vote from July617 to Vonthin with little to no reason why. This is the biggest reason I think that SagaZ/July617 might be mafia together. That being said, who could the 3rd mafia in this relationship be? Well, it's really weak from Day 1 data, but I think E00e is the most likely third party. Note that I haven't gone into great detail comparing these patterns from Day 1 with information from Day 2 like I did with my first mafia circle. That being said, I am much less confident in my mafia circle of SagaZ/July617/E00e than I am of my mafia circle of E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24. I think it's time for some other people to contribute and give some thoughts on my ideas so I can get a better idea of where I ultimately stand for the upcoming vote. | ||
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On October 19 2013 00:36 Balla24 wrote: and wtf man... get off my back... this is the second time you've voted directly after me directly like me with very little other information. I only wanted to use my vote as a pressure vote and you trying to start a train like this makes it hard. This looks so forced as a bus. I am more and more sure of the E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24 circle every day. I am trying to take a step back to make sure I'm not tunnel visioning on this theory so I can be right, but I can't help noticing these connections. Hopefully they are not inspired by my confirmation bias. On October 19 2013 00:39 onlywonderboy wrote: I'm pretty suspicious of SagaZ at this point. He very well have been busy, but coming back to make one impassioned post doesn't clear him in my eyes. I'm interested to see if he's able to participate in any of the conversations going on around lynching time. That's generally where a lot of useful information comes out. Although it seems we are going pretty much all in on nyx at this point. Which, I don't have an issue voting for nyx (I think he's kind of scummy), but I don't want to start the bandwagon too early when new information may come to light. And of course I disagree with SagaZ's analysis of me. I find it so weird he can say all my posts have been useless when Seuss is claiming they are pretty good, just not a lot of them. I find it interesting they can have such different opinions on my posts. More intra-circle busing going around? Maybe, maybe not. Just note these interactions between onlywonderboy-E00e-Balla24. On October 19 2013 00:42 Bereft wrote: what do you guys think of the fact that mafia decided to risk not blocking E00e when there's a decent chance he could be cop vs myself who has given any indication of a blue role? Well given my reads, I think it fits pretty well with the fact that he is likely mafia. On October 19 2013 00:48 istandwithmitt wrote: @Balla: there's no reason to blindly believe a roleblock claim. It's weird that he would claim in the first place (do vanillas get roleblocked??). I think his slipping wrt claim is the scummiest thing to happen in the game so far & I don't get it if you guys don't agree. ##unvote ##vote: Bereft I just have to laugh at this at this point because we're somewhat stuck with you now that we failed to lynch you Day 1. You're not 100% wrong that Bereft could be faking, but the way he's playing compared to others, there's just better lynches for mafia at this point and if we end up flipping a scum, we can go back and look at Bereft's interaction with them when it's more appropriate. I'm still not going to write you off as being scum/SK entirely, but there's better candidates for today for both roles so you've got a pass from me for today. Also, I really do want to re-emphasize that just because you're giving me lulz, I still disapprove of how random you're playing because it isn't really pro-town at all. On October 19 2013 01:16 onlywonderboy wrote: This post actually makes me believe SagaZ is town. He's right, I've been been way too quiet and have been coasting for most of this game. I've been quick to follow Seuss because he's town and I know he's an incredibly analytic thinker, but that's way too passive play and doesn't really do much to help the town. I tried to get some discussion going with differentiating the mafia/SK kill, but that broke down quick and it turned out I was likely wrong. Honestly I'm as surprised as him I'm flown under the radar and really that's just bad play on my part. I'm still working on rereading the pages to try and get more scum tells, but I can at least put forth I think SagaZ is town based off this post. This is weird for me, not weird as in mafia but weird as in I don't know what to make of it in light of my current read on you and E00e/Balla24. On October 19 2013 01:27 nyxnyxnyx wrote: #Vote: E00e I'm even more convinced you're a lone agent serial killer now than before. On October 19 2013 02:20 onlywonderboy wrote: I think a possible mafia combination is July/nyx/x. It seems unlikely to have two mafia players lurking so much, but they could easily be relying on the third mafia player to be the active face of their team. Nyx came under a lot of suspicion based on the way his voting went down (switching to Vonith for little reason and then him turning town). Plus him and July were getting pressured heavily by Odin. July actually goes out of his way to defend nyx's vote because it would be a bad play for the mafia. I mean, in a vacuum it makes him look suspicious, but the bandwagon on that vote was pretty strong maybe they thought it wouldn't be too hard to hide among the other townie voters. Also there is the possibility nyx could act as a martyr for the an active mafia player to gain tons of credibility in the town. I mean clearly it's not the cleanest play on the mafia's part, but having two players come under suspicion by Odin early could definitely make them panic. It's certainly a different theory than most people have brought up, but even if I'm wrong the conversation that spawns around it can certainly be valuable. You're doing a good job of ruining my confidence in my theory that you are mafia with Balla24-E00e so I dislike this post for that reason =(. I don't think you're my lynch for today though because of it. Another post coming shortly. | ||
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On October 19 2013 05:40 Bereft wrote: I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. I've given my thoughts onto why nyxnyxnyx is our most likely candidate for a SK. I think if he isn't a SK, he is more likely town than scum due to what seems to be a lack of strong connections with others. The benefit of lynching nyxnyxnyx if he is the SK right now could be a reduction in KP that would hit a town. However, it can go both ways as it's also a possibility that if nyxnyxnyx is the SK and we keep him alive, he could hit a mafia (which is somewhat less likely from a numerical perspective than hitting town, but still possible and would help town immensely). For this reason, I think nyxnyxnyx is definitely a safe lynch for today, but is he the safest lynch in light of this fact that he could also hit a mafia for us? Maybe he is. Who do I suggest are viable alternatives to nyxnyxnyx? Not our confirmed town Seuss (obviously). Not our wildcard istandwithmitt for reasons I gave in the previous post. Not Bereft, who appears to be the most confirmed town based on his play, in addition to reasons I gave in the previous post. July617 is a possible candidate due to his suspicious behavior and lack of activity, but there are more suspicious players I think with a similar lack of activity. I wouldn't lynch July617 just yet because he's a less likely scum in my eyes. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. SagaZ has been under a lot of suspicion since the start of the game, and rightly so. I disapprove of his appeal to emotion at the beginning of the large post he made here: On October 18 2013 15:25 SagaZ wrote: I want to give a big and heartfelt apologize to the town, this day has been dramatically bad and busy. it is almost 3.30 am and i have to wake up at 6 tomorrow. I'm in no condition to make super detailed analysis but I'll give my toughs on what's going on so far. Fortunately I'll be home earlier tomorow. I find the "preemptive excuse" very suspicious, and further, the connections I drew between SagaZ and July617 lead me to think he is a likely mafia candidate. However, like July617, he isn't at the top of my scum list. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. onlywonderboy would probably have been in my top 3 lynch candidates for today, however for reasons I gave in the previous post, I think he is off the chopping block for the upcoming lynch. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. That leaves Balla24 and E00e as the last two possibilities for alternative lynches to nyxnyxnyx. Balla24/E00e were both in a mafia circle alongside onlywonderboy, however onlywonderboy has made what I believe to be pro-town contributions today that I noted in my previous post. Both Balla24/E00e have given me no such vibe. In fact, the only distinguishing factor between Balla24/E00e for me at this point is the quantity at which they post and give their thoughts. For this reason, I would suggest that if we don't lynch nyxnyxnyx today, E00e would be the next choice over Balla24. Balla24 is at least posting a decent quantity of posts so we have a lot of information to work with on Day 3 regarding him and his reads, and we will likely continue to gather more information from him on Day 3 if his activity into Day 3 remains consistent. However, E00e is much less revealing as to his reads and reasons for them. For this reason, while I have strong scum reads on both of them at the moment, I think from a pure information-gathering perspective, Balla24 would be more useful to keep alive than E00e at this point. Further, it has been noted that there is a minor possibility that E00e could be an alternative Serial Killer to nyxnyxnyx (while I don't subscribe to this as being very likely, it shouldn't be discounted as a possibility). That being said, I think I'm willing to take a risk tonight and keep the likely Serial Killer alive in favor of lynching scum. #vote E00e I think nyxnyxnyx is the Serial Killer, and at this point it's likely mafia will want him gone just as much as town will, if not more. In keeping the SK alive for one more night, the Mafia have a target for a potential KP/RB that will be used on SK instead of mafia. This goes both ways, as the SK at this point is probably going to be extremely weary of the fact that no mafia have been killed, and will likely be aiming his KP tonight at those who he thinks to be most likely as mafia. Tonight is a fairly crucial night for both of these factions to move against each other, and for that reason, it is in our best interest to go for a mafia lynch rather than eliminate the lone enemy of our enemy, who may yet, by mutual interests in reducing mafia numbers, prove useful to us. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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##Vote E00e | ||
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On October 19 2013 06:50 Balla24 wrote: Ugh... how the fuck is onlywonderboy being called more useful than me (no offense onlywonderboy)? All he has done is post either agreement with Seuss. Or random very unlikely scum possibilities. Now again, I'm not going to call out scum. I defend myself when asked AND i am questioning other people. The other candidates barely provide reasoning for their actions and their defenses are barely there. GGTemplar: What pro town contributions do you think he's made? His posts on pg 28/29 read town to me. | ||
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On October 19 2013 06:57 Bereft wrote: I don't think E00e is scum (anymore). I'd be more confident in a Balla or July vote for our mafia candidates, or nyx if we choose to go the SK route. I don't like July617 for today. I would rather Balla24 or nyxnyxnyx over July617. I've given my reasons. | ||
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On October 19 2013 07:02 E00e wrote: @GGTemplar You're line of reasoning has me as the most probable mafia read along side Balla. You call me a strong mafia read by the process of elimination but is it really so strong? Even if i am the most probable mafia the actual probability could be low. You even had me as a light town read on day 1. So this is solely based on day 2. Contrary to that you are very very convinced of nyx making nyx a more secure kill. What is the information you would get out of my death? What will change for you if come out as town or mafia? I dislike that my defense so far is more about other people than me, maybe I can think of more. Strong or not, it's the best I have. The information from your death would be contingent on the night kills so it's hard to say. You're actually probably right that nyxnyxnyx is a more confirmed kill at this point, I'll grant you that. On October 19 2013 07:28 E00e wrote: And why am I even in a circle with onlywonderboy? Do we have any kind of suspicious interaction? The reasons for this are in the large post series I made regarding the likely mafia circles. That being said, I like that you're actually fighting back and being inquisitive. I might come to regret this, but I'm willing to go for the safer lynch today. ##Unvote Perhaps I am being greedy in hoping that if we leave nyxnyxnyx alive tonight the mafia-SK will target each other, but I would have liked to think it would be a worth-the-risk town victory. However, you're right to point out the risks should we not kill nyxnyxnyx and we end up losing another 2 town tonight. If we don't kill nyxnyxnyx today, it's true we could win big, but we could also lose big. I think it's best for me to be risk-averse here rather than go all-in for the jackpot. ##Vote: nyxnyxnyx | ||
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On October 19 2013 11:33 nyxnyxnyx wrote: pro reads guys not as pro as your town play | ||
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On October 14 2013 16:50 GGTeMpLaR wrote: I think between SagaZ and istandwithmitt, at most one of them is mafia. SagaZ's first post is somewhat suspicious but istandwithmitt instantly going so hard on him is just as suspicious because it seems like such an easy target at that point. There's no way they're both mafia together. It's possible both are town, but if we gain information that one of them is mafia, it would clear the other as town I'd say. I was afraid the entire game this post early on would come back to bite me lol SK why did you shoot me btw? | ||
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On October 24 2013 04:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: istandwithmitt: I suggest you join normal games instead. You played probably the best D1 from all the people. On October 24 2013 04:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: He nailed 2/3 mafia on D1. In fucking 5 posts. Just because he does not make long fluff posts does not make him bad or scum. There was no case on him, except for people "not liking him". How is he supposed to defend himself? Everyone failed to read what he actually said because they didn't like him... I can't tell if you're serious or not. | ||
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