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On September 28 2013 18:01 Chairman Ray wrote:
Oh, only 11 hours left. I definitely won't be here tomorrow for endgame, so I'm gonna stay up late tonight to try to catch up.
I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. (1)But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia.
(2)Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia.
Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG.
Just for now
##Vote: Koshi
I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG.
This post reads like, "I want to look like I'm contributing, without actually contributing" There is a lot of posturing and needless speculation.
See (1) Why does CR feel the need to create a fallback option? If the whole purpose of this post was to draw attention to Koshi, why does he feel the need to say that his "read may be off"?
See (2) This is the equivalent of an association case. Just because people are defending Koshi does not mean Koshi is scum. The rest of this paragraph relies on pure speculation and provides us nothing of value.
I think ShiaoPi is still a better lynch, but I want more people talking about CR.
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On October 01 2013 12:51 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 12:46 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:35 Grackaroni wrote:
What do you think about what I said on Palmar, he's the only active player I see right now with a good case for being scum. Maybe Rayn but he just doesn't care this game and I have no idea what that means for him. If it's not Palmar it's probably going to be one of the lurkers lynched. I don't do anything with that. At this point I don't think we can go "there's probably an active player that is scum, therefore we'll lynch the likeliest of the active players to be scum." You're making weird assumptions if you want to vote Palmar because there are PROBABLY active scum/an active scum. Especially D2, I'm not voting based on that and I don't think it's worth much. rayn's filter doesn't make me warm and fuzzy, but doesn't trip anything super major. I got paranoid that he was focused on how people can't make townreads given that there are two scum teams, but he didn't post about that as much as I remembered. No I mean what I wrote about Palmar on page 7 of my filter. Palmar being the most likely active player to be scum is just my opinion, not why I think he is scum. I'll read the tail end of Palmar's D1 more closely, but so long as he was still vocal about being down with a Yamato lynch while making some of the statements you pull out, I'm okay with him not jumping harder on other folks.
You may think he's scummy for not having a balls-out D1 where you think he's super townie and super scumhunter man, but I don't THINK I recall scum Palmar posting a wishy washy crap. From what I remember of scum Palmar, he does the same thing as normal - picks a target, tunnels target, tries to push lynch on target. So I read those posts on Hiro and FT as being actual thoughts, but not scum flags because (a) I don't think it fits what I've seen from scumPalmar and (b) scumPalmar knows better than to post wishy washy reads.
So, overall, I guess just not terribly scummy on Palmar.
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On October 01 2013 12:59 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 12:51 Grackaroni wrote:On October 01 2013 12:46 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:35 Grackaroni wrote:
What do you think about what I said on Palmar, he's the only active player I see right now with a good case for being scum. Maybe Rayn but he just doesn't care this game and I have no idea what that means for him. If it's not Palmar it's probably going to be one of the lurkers lynched. I don't do anything with that. At this point I don't think we can go "there's probably an active player that is scum, therefore we'll lynch the likeliest of the active players to be scum." You're making weird assumptions if you want to vote Palmar because there are PROBABLY active scum/an active scum. Especially D2, I'm not voting based on that and I don't think it's worth much. rayn's filter doesn't make me warm and fuzzy, but doesn't trip anything super major. I got paranoid that he was focused on how people can't make townreads given that there are two scum teams, but he didn't post about that as much as I remembered. No I mean what I wrote about Palmar on page 7 of my filter. Palmar being the most likely active player to be scum is just my opinion, not why I think he is scum. I'll read the tail end of Palmar's D1 more closely, but so long as he was still vocal about being down with a Yamato lynch while making some of the statements you pull out, I'm okay with him not jumping harder on other folks. You may think he's scummy for not having a balls-out D1 where you think he's super townie and super scumhunter man, but I don't THINK I recall scum Palmar posting a wishy washy crap. From what I remember of scum Palmar, he does the same thing as normal - picks a target, tunnels target, tries to push lynch on target. So I read those posts on Hiro and FT as being actual thoughts, but not scum flags because (a) I don't think it fits what I've seen from scumPalmar and (b) scumPalmar knows better than to post wishy washy reads. So, overall, I guess just not terribly scummy on Palmar.
He wasn't vocal about anyone at the end of day1. He popped in near the end to say that RoL/FT/Hiro were good lynches, then I said something about how if he wanted one of those people to be lynched in the last 2 hours he would have chosen one and written a case and pushed him hard and then he made another post saying that those 3 + (Yamato/koshi) the two vote leaders were all fine lynches.
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On October 01 2013 13:04 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 12:59 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:51 Grackaroni wrote:On October 01 2013 12:46 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:35 Grackaroni wrote:
What do you think about what I said on Palmar, he's the only active player I see right now with a good case for being scum. Maybe Rayn but he just doesn't care this game and I have no idea what that means for him. If it's not Palmar it's probably going to be one of the lurkers lynched. I don't do anything with that. At this point I don't think we can go "there's probably an active player that is scum, therefore we'll lynch the likeliest of the active players to be scum." You're making weird assumptions if you want to vote Palmar because there are PROBABLY active scum/an active scum. Especially D2, I'm not voting based on that and I don't think it's worth much. rayn's filter doesn't make me warm and fuzzy, but doesn't trip anything super major. I got paranoid that he was focused on how people can't make townreads given that there are two scum teams, but he didn't post about that as much as I remembered. No I mean what I wrote about Palmar on page 7 of my filter. Palmar being the most likely active player to be scum is just my opinion, not why I think he is scum. I'll read the tail end of Palmar's D1 more closely, but so long as he was still vocal about being down with a Yamato lynch while making some of the statements you pull out, I'm okay with him not jumping harder on other folks. You may think he's scummy for not having a balls-out D1 where you think he's super townie and super scumhunter man, but I don't THINK I recall scum Palmar posting a wishy washy crap. From what I remember of scum Palmar, he does the same thing as normal - picks a target, tunnels target, tries to push lynch on target. So I read those posts on Hiro and FT as being actual thoughts, but not scum flags because (a) I don't think it fits what I've seen from scumPalmar and (b) scumPalmar knows better than to post wishy washy reads. So, overall, I guess just not terribly scummy on Palmar. He wasn't vocal about anyone at the end of day1. He popped in near the end to say that RoL/FT/Hiro were good lynches, then I said something about how if he wanted one of those people to be lynched in the last 2 hours he would have chosen one and written a case and pushed him hard and then he made another post saying that those 3 + (Yamato/koshi) the two vote leaders were all fine lynches. Kk. I'll add that to looking at SP tomorrow morning, but...have you played with scum Palmar and did he play at all similarly? If not, then I don't believe him not being vocal and not pushing a particular read are as good of indicators of scum Palmar as you're making them out to be.
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SUPER WISHY WASHY STATEMENT:
The above posts in response to grack indicate that I don't think grack's reasons for finding Palmar scummy are great reasons to find Palmar scummy. They are not intended to be taken as me saying Palmar super townie, only that I don't think those particular points should be used to push Palmar as scum.
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On October 01 2013 13:08 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 13:04 Grackaroni wrote:On October 01 2013 12:59 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:51 Grackaroni wrote:On October 01 2013 12:46 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:35 Grackaroni wrote:
What do you think about what I said on Palmar, he's the only active player I see right now with a good case for being scum. Maybe Rayn but he just doesn't care this game and I have no idea what that means for him. If it's not Palmar it's probably going to be one of the lurkers lynched. I don't do anything with that. At this point I don't think we can go "there's probably an active player that is scum, therefore we'll lynch the likeliest of the active players to be scum." You're making weird assumptions if you want to vote Palmar because there are PROBABLY active scum/an active scum. Especially D2, I'm not voting based on that and I don't think it's worth much. rayn's filter doesn't make me warm and fuzzy, but doesn't trip anything super major. I got paranoid that he was focused on how people can't make townreads given that there are two scum teams, but he didn't post about that as much as I remembered. No I mean what I wrote about Palmar on page 7 of my filter. Palmar being the most likely active player to be scum is just my opinion, not why I think he is scum. I'll read the tail end of Palmar's D1 more closely, but so long as he was still vocal about being down with a Yamato lynch while making some of the statements you pull out, I'm okay with him not jumping harder on other folks. You may think he's scummy for not having a balls-out D1 where you think he's super townie and super scumhunter man, but I don't THINK I recall scum Palmar posting a wishy washy crap. From what I remember of scum Palmar, he does the same thing as normal - picks a target, tunnels target, tries to push lynch on target. So I read those posts on Hiro and FT as being actual thoughts, but not scum flags because (a) I don't think it fits what I've seen from scumPalmar and (b) scumPalmar knows better than to post wishy washy reads. So, overall, I guess just not terribly scummy on Palmar. He wasn't vocal about anyone at the end of day1. He popped in near the end to say that RoL/FT/Hiro were good lynches, then I said something about how if he wanted one of those people to be lynched in the last 2 hours he would have chosen one and written a case and pushed him hard and then he made another post saying that those 3 + (Yamato/koshi) the two vote leaders were all fine lynches. Kk. I'll add that to looking at SP tomorrow morning, but...have you played with scum Palmar and did he play at all similarly? If not, then I don't believe him not being vocal and not pushing a particular read are as good of indicators of scum Palmar as you're making them out to be.
Scum Palmar just generally cares less about the game because he most enjoys analyzing. that's about as far as I will meta him.
I played one game with him when he was scum and he called me scum from my first sentence and popped in to push me for a couple cycles.
Another game where he was smurfing scum where he made this bad constructed post and lurked and got called out as the best lynch by foolishness day1.
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On October 01 2013 12:28 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 12:07 strongandbig wrote:
Austin what do you think about my palmar case (and grack's case which is extra evidence for my case)
Also I get that you don't think ft is scum but what about shiaopi? He's currently the second realistic lynch option. SP I didn't get much from D1, I got nothing in read-through notes on him and just remembered he was one of the folks making a Koshi comment. As far as him being a lynch option today...will read through in the EST morning and respond more fully. I find myself almost never wanting to lynch ShiaoPi because his schedule is never synched with the thread's and it always feels like he's pushable as a mislynch in games he rolls town. Just...very very wary of any push to lynch ShiaoPi. Strongandbig : Drazerk :: austinmcc : ShiaoPi
oh man drazerk
okay i can feel ya
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Oh he was scum in Purgatory too. 2 scum teams, he called out my entire scum team day1 in one post but he didn't actually play. I was just super scummy and my teammates were lurkers who kept showing up with excuses and promises and never did anything. one of them being RoL
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On October 01 2013 13:12 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 13:08 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 13:04 Grackaroni wrote:On October 01 2013 12:59 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:51 Grackaroni wrote:On October 01 2013 12:46 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:35 Grackaroni wrote:
What do you think about what I said on Palmar, he's the only active player I see right now with a good case for being scum. Maybe Rayn but he just doesn't care this game and I have no idea what that means for him. If it's not Palmar it's probably going to be one of the lurkers lynched. I don't do anything with that. At this point I don't think we can go "there's probably an active player that is scum, therefore we'll lynch the likeliest of the active players to be scum." You're making weird assumptions if you want to vote Palmar because there are PROBABLY active scum/an active scum. Especially D2, I'm not voting based on that and I don't think it's worth much. rayn's filter doesn't make me warm and fuzzy, but doesn't trip anything super major. I got paranoid that he was focused on how people can't make townreads given that there are two scum teams, but he didn't post about that as much as I remembered. No I mean what I wrote about Palmar on page 7 of my filter. Palmar being the most likely active player to be scum is just my opinion, not why I think he is scum. I'll read the tail end of Palmar's D1 more closely, but so long as he was still vocal about being down with a Yamato lynch while making some of the statements you pull out, I'm okay with him not jumping harder on other folks. You may think he's scummy for not having a balls-out D1 where you think he's super townie and super scumhunter man, but I don't THINK I recall scum Palmar posting a wishy washy crap. From what I remember of scum Palmar, he does the same thing as normal - picks a target, tunnels target, tries to push lynch on target. So I read those posts on Hiro and FT as being actual thoughts, but not scum flags because (a) I don't think it fits what I've seen from scumPalmar and (b) scumPalmar knows better than to post wishy washy reads. So, overall, I guess just not terribly scummy on Palmar. He wasn't vocal about anyone at the end of day1. He popped in near the end to say that RoL/FT/Hiro were good lynches, then I said something about how if he wanted one of those people to be lynched in the last 2 hours he would have chosen one and written a case and pushed him hard and then he made another post saying that those 3 + (Yamato/koshi) the two vote leaders were all fine lynches. Kk. I'll add that to looking at SP tomorrow morning, but...have you played with scum Palmar and did he play at all similarly? If not, then I don't believe him not being vocal and not pushing a particular read are as good of indicators of scum Palmar as you're making them out to be. Scum Palmar just generally cares less about the game because he most enjoys analyzing. that's about as far as I will meta him. I played one game with him when he was scum and he called me scum from my first sentence and popped in to push me for a couple cycles. Another game where he was smurfing scum where he made this bad constructed post and lurked and got called out as the best lynch by foolishness day1. I find this post/exchange super townie. Following up, questioning me, and then actually being able to back up your thoughts.
The game or games that I remember with scumPalmar mainly just involved him calling people scum, then calling marvel scum, and then him and marvel getting into a shitfight. So maybe I've just got a different experience here.
On October 01 2013 13:15 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 12:28 austinmcc wrote:On October 01 2013 12:07 strongandbig wrote:
Austin what do you think about my palmar case (and grack's case which is extra evidence for my case)
Also I get that you don't think ft is scum but what about shiaopi? He's currently the second realistic lynch option. SP I didn't get much from D1, I got nothing in read-through notes on him and just remembered he was one of the folks making a Koshi comment. As far as him being a lynch option today...will read through in the EST morning and respond more fully. I find myself almost never wanting to lynch ShiaoPi because his schedule is never synched with the thread's and it always feels like he's pushable as a mislynch in games he rolls town. Just...very very wary of any push to lynch ShiaoPi. Strongandbig : Drazerk :: austinmcc : ShiaoPi oh man drazerk okay i can feel ya I dunno what the symbol for opposite-y is, but looks like the point got across correctly. Meant to indicate that you always want to kill Drazerk, but I never want to kill ShiaoPi.
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I don't care if you don't want to kill Palmar and I agree with what you say on ShiaoPi/FT but if you aren't comfortable lynching ShiaoPi/FT then you've got some difficulty ahead of you finding a good lynch. I haven't found one I like more yet and with this town atmosphere I don't expect much more information.
Definitely don't lynch Koshi, I thought he was scum earlier but he's a cop.
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ughhh, long day.
catching up on the thread now.
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Hey I'm back from work. I spent some time catching up on this thread, and I would like to give the few reads I have right now.
I think it's safe to say that FirmTofu and ShiaoPi are not associated. I say this because FirmTofu is strongly going on ShiaoPi. If those two were of the same mafia faction, using bussing as a strategy is pointless since we have two mafia factions. All that's gonna happen is one being lynched tonight and the other the next night. Because of this, I'm going to assume they are not associated.
Between FirmTofu and ShiaoPi, I like FirmTofu a lot more. Now that he's under a lot of pressure, instead of spending all his efforts explaining himself, he's trying to find better scum targets. He posted some good reads on ShiaoPi and myself. If FirmTofu goes after some of the really good players here, that would really show me he's town, because mafia would probably try to redirect the lynch onto the easiest targets. So I think there's still a good chance FirmTofu will flip scum, but overall, his last few pages still gave me better confidence. ##Unvote
My strongest townread right now are on Koshi and austin. I think Koshi may be town because of the way he's playing. If he were mafia, after almost getting lynched the first day, the natural response would be to compensate by looking overly town. Looking through his filter, he's actually playing similarly to D1. I don't see any longposts, or tunneling, or strong reads on people. It's as if he doesn't need to prove that he's town. This reads pretty town to me.
I think austin is town just because he's being very active right now without any obligation. Whoever the other replacement is still hasn't really been active yet, and there are a couple lurkers, so if he posts very little, he still wouldn't risk being lynched or shot. Additionally, he seems very caught up in the thread. If I were mafia, I would probably skim through pages at most, and tell people that I'm catching up, just so nobody expects me to do much.
I think another person that looks kinda scummy to me is VayneAuthority. His last few posts were just complaining about lurkers and lack of contribution, and also a couple images. I think that if a town wanted more activity and information, he would start being more active himself, and pressure people to give information. Merely complaining about people lurking, or the general lack of activity in this thread doesn't actually make things better, plus, it also demoralizes townies. It really sets an alarm off for me when he says that he's "fine just chillin' until we lose". I think he's saying these things because he's mafia, and he's trying to give us an excuse to let him be passive.
##Vote VayneAuthority
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so who was the other person you thought was scum? You start off your paragraph with "I think another person" with there is no previous scumread that you gave.
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On October 01 2013 14:13 VayneAuthority wrote:
so who was the other person you thought was scum? You start off your paragraph with "I think another person" with there is no previous scumread that you gave.
Was referring to FirmTofu and ShiaoPi. I didn't give any scumreads on them, but they're widely considered to be the most scummy right now. So I was basically saying "Besides the people who are already on our radar..."
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alright now I get to tear you to shreds. Let me show you why you're making a grave error here.
1. You say FT looks town because he is going after "good players that aren't considered to be scummy by the majority." I have been doing the same thing by going after grackaroni, palmar, and pandain yet I am somehow scum to you. Contradiction #1
2. You are complaining about my personality and my playstyle, not mentioning things that make me scummy. If it was as simple as people that care are town and people that don't care are scum nobody would play mafia since it would be pointlessly easy. Koshi is a townread because he isn't even trying to look town yet I get flak for simply bullshitting with other players that are also bullshitting? Contradiction #2
3. I'm being active without any obligation. I could easily just lurk like half of this game right now but I'm not. Seems to make austin a town read but not me...Hm. Contradiction #3
I could do more but I think that is sufficient. If you need help from your scum team on not making easy posts to debunk then ask them in the QT. if you are town then stop bothering me.
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1. I said that if FT goes after the good players, he would look town, but he obviously isn't since he's going after ShiaoPi and myself. Sorry if my original post was confusing, I would edit it for clarity if I could. The reason is because has been the #1/#2 lynch candidate today and any effort to try to get a lynch on a strong, townish player would be wasted. This does not really apply to you right now.
2. It's not just caring or not caring about the game that points me to believe you are mafia. I think everyone in this game should care about the game, otherwise why would they join it in the first place? You seemed to care on the first day, so why don't you care now? What made the difference to me wasn't whether you cared or not, but rather that you were vocal about it. This seems very mafialike to me. If Koshi were to come out and say that he doesn't care much anymore, and he's just going to chill the rest of the game, I would question him as well.
3. The reason I think austin is town is because he was a replacement. You aren't. You showed us you are here, and you are active. Austin had every excuse to continue to lurk. That's why I think he's town.
I would definitely like to hear more if you have something in mind.
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Another thing Vayne, I notice that you sound a bit defensive. I don't think I was being rude or condescending. All I did was post my read on you. That's sorta what we're supposed to do in a game of mafia, right? I don't understand why you need to "tear me to shreds", or say that my post is easy to debunk, or tell me to stop bothering you. Why would you want me to stop bothering you anyways? Is my trust not important? I think that you are not actually a big meanie. You are a very nice person who's sounding mean as a strategy. If I was in your position and I was town, I would probably want the trust of everybody, even lesser experienced players or players that post weaker reads. But if I was mafia, maybe I would construct a post to intimidate someone from giving any further reads on me.
A few other things. Why did you say you could do more, but withhold all your other information? Do you not want to give me more reasons to trust you? Personally, I think that's a part of the ploy. Think of it as one gunner telling the enemy that he has plenty more bullets, so he should back down, but his holster is actually empty. Any and all information is quite useful to the town right now. If you have more information that paints you as town, I would love to hear it so I could trust you and go after people that are more likely to be mafia.
Why was your first reply about who else I thought was mafia? Personally if someone had a scumread on me, the last thing I would worry about is whatever other people they have a read on. Seems like mismatched priorities to me. I think you were trying to get another person into the picture, or to see if I slip, so you can attack that and divert the attention off of you.
So basically, I think your conversation with me thus far has been heavily masked and constructed, and that's because you are mafia.
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nope, cant read strat anymore. need sleep, will be back in 8 hours
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Great post Ray; solidifies my read of you. Vayne was immaturely aggressive and wrote as if you were scum but then didn't accuse you. He didn't just say you had bad logic but also were contradictory.
On October 01 2013 00:46 VayneAuthority wrote:
after reading all filters those are the 3 that were most likely to dispose of BH
Also interested in this I never even talked about BH except to see if he would support me for a Yamato lynch. Not sure where this came from and it seems scummy.
I also want it explained as to how that connections works because others are more interlocked with BH.
On October 01 2013 00:52 VayneAuthority wrote:
Also, WoS reaction to yet another one of my bait posts was horrible and if FT flips town I would strongly look into him
This post shows a couple things:
1. He's assuming FT will flip. VA is however opposed to a FT lynch and this statement seems suspicious, why not push for others?
More confident in Vayne then FT at the moment.
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Great post Ray; solidifies my read of you. Vayne was immaturely aggressive and wrote as if you were scum but then didn't accuse you. He didn't just say you had bad logic but also were contradictory.
On October 01 2013 00:46 VayneAuthority wrote:
after reading all filters those are the 3 that were most likely to dispose of BH
Also interested in this I never even talked about BH except to see if he would support me for a Yamato lynch. Not sure where this came from and it seems scummy.
I also want it explained as to how that connections works because others are more interlocked with BH.
On October 01 2013 00:52 VayneAuthority wrote:
Also, WoS reaction to yet another one of my bait posts was horrible and if FT flips town I would strongly look into him
This post shows a couple things:
1. He's assuming FT will flip. VA is however opposed to a FT lynch and this statement seems suspicious, why not push for others?
More confident in Vayne then FT at the moment. We should switch and cops simply shoot one of shiao/FT to help indirectly ward conversation away from future backtracks onto them.
[b] ##Unvote
##Vote VayneAuthority[\b]
I also read Gracks case on Palmar and think he would be a good shot as well
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EPT
