Persona 4 Mini Mafia
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FirmTofu
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I don't want you guys to have to rebalance the setup for us anyway. That's no fun. /in for now. | ||
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On August 15 2013 14:19 Sylencia wrote: Has there been a game where a hydra has given town a clear advantage? I have limited experiences with them myself, but I never saw them as being overpowered. Hydras have a net benefit to town, even when you factor in the probability of the hydra being scum. In your 15 player setup, I would expect around 3-4 scum. The probability of the hydra being scum is around 25%. Conversely, the probability of the hydra being town is 75%. Even assuming that the hydra gives an equal benefit to either team, the disproportionate amount of probability attributed to rolling town already gives town an unfair advantage. Add to this that many people think a town hydra is a greater benefit to town than a scum hydra is to scum and the scales tip massively in town's favor. | ||
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On August 16 2013 11:03 DarthPunk wrote: Because if you aren't around people like to lynch you cause it is easy. Of the three times I have been lynched. Two were solely because I wasn't around at deadline. The other was in my first newbie. Both of the only times I have been lynched on this site were due to this. Both times I flipped town. | ||
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FirmTofu is here And is scumhunting too! First things first. This deadline is less than ideal for me. It is 4 AM in my timezone so I will likely be asleep during that time period. If anyone wishes to vote for me in the 4 hour town frame before the deadline, they better have a fucking good reason to do so. Any votes placed on me during that timeframe should be considered be VERY scummy and all guilty persons should be pursued with fervor the following day. I'll be catching up and posting my thoughts in a few hours. Don't be a bunch of bitches like y'all were in GOT and vote me for no reason for not being around. | ||
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WoS and geript seem to have some sort of mutual camaraderie based on past games and the friendship they have formed through their hydra. Therefore, you can expect them to play irrationally when speaking of one another. I think we should make note of this. WoS is a real funnybunny. I don't like any of his opinions on how to handle N0. On this topic, rayn wins the argument handily. Remaining quiet on N0 is definitely mafia-favored play. There is no reason to silence ourselves when discussion is the greatest asset we have. However, I don't think this is as damning as rayn says it is. WoS looks scummy, sure, but his play is equally likely to be bad town as it is to be scum. Geript's meta indicates that geript may be scum this game. Town geript usually attacks and pushes like a monster. Geript this game has been relatively subdued. Vayne is not posting much and is not looking particularly scummy. Knowing Vayne, this is quite odd. Town Vayne usually likes to look scummy so that he won't get NK'd until endgame. Vayne in this game looks nothing like town Vayne. Koshi is looking scummy and stupid. Whenever Koshi looks scummy and stupid, he flips town. See: Titanic and all of his other town games. Whenever he is spot on with his reads and looks like he knows what he is doing, he flips scum. At best, he's a good vigi shot right now. Lynching him is not a good course of action. Kush is basically Koshi divided by 2. He just posts less, but his playstyle is very similar. Thus, he is also probably not the best lynch right now. After GoT, I'm not sure how to read rayn anymore. I thought I had him figured out after Titanic and his scum play in I Swear 2, but he played a solid scum game in GoT and threw me off. For the time being, he remains a volatile player that is more likely to hurt town than help it. I would not mind a vig shot on him, but I am finding it hard to read him right now. Saving for later. That's all I want to talk about for now. If anything else comes up, I'll be sure to let you know. | ||
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On August 21 2013 10:17 WaveofShadow wrote: I'll get to what Rayn wanted from me yamato. As for the rest of your reads: Vayne is mega lynchbait. Mega super ultra lynchbait. Flying under the radar for now is definitely something to note though. We'll see what D1 brings. I HAVE mentioned I would be fine to shoot/policy lynch kush btw. He's lynchbait when he's actively trying to look scummy though. In this game, I'm seeing a different Vayne than usual. I don't really agree with yamato's thought process, but do think Vayne would be a decent lynch. | ||
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On August 21 2013 06:04 Sn0_Man wrote: Not that I haven't flung my share of shit at a decent variety of players this game, but if we take a look at rayns filter he has called the following people scum: Me, Geript, WoS, Rainbows, Oats, and DP In other words, every person who has posted anything worth mentioning except Koshi. Pressuring a variety of people is fine but rayn has already demonstrated an incredible level of certainty regarding the scumminess of at least WoS/Me/Rainbows and the others were pretty strong language for a while as well. I just currently don't see rayn being helpful to town. I see him bidding for dominance in the thread in a way that doesn't seem conducive to success in an N0 start if he believed what he was saying as well. And I see him doing a lot of "Oh yeah X is totally scum" without justifying it at all (the only time he ever justified an opinion was on WoS). It doesn't fit to me, right now. Still waiting on more people to seriously contribute to thread. I just caught this post. Sno, could you explain how rayn being accusatory and aggressive makes him scum? It looks like you are simply trying to discredit him here.You don't seem to be pushing for his lynch, but you want everyone to ignore him. Why would a townie want this when he isn't in rayn's crosshairs? What town motivation do you have to discredit rayn when he isn't even attacking you? | ||
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Is this post serving a greater purpose to aid town in its conquest of mafia? Is this post going to consist of less than 5 words? Is this post going to derail the thread into discussing something of absolutely no value? I trust you know the correct answers. Regulate yourself. | ||
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On August 21 2013 11:08 WaveofShadow wrote: Haha this brings me back to Ego mafia. It's the only other time I've seen Rayn act so unbelievably retarded. I trust you haven't read Titanic? Bless your soul. | ||
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On August 21 2013 11:27 WaveofShadow wrote: FT he did this in Titanic as well? What was the outcome/what was he trying to accomplish? He was a claimed cop. He drunk posted to push mislynches. I still don't know why. It filled up the thread fast. I think Titanic had around the same amount of pages as GoT when there were only 14 players. | ||
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On August 21 2013 11:35 WaveofShadow wrote: Alright yeah it seems to fit his drunkposting fiasco in Ego---no particular rhyme or reason behind it. Aaaaanyway, now that I have you here FT, who is scum? I don't like sno at all. Geript and Vayne could be scum due to meta. Yamato seems to be faking aggression, so that's odd. Still unsure on rayn. Usually, rayn pursues me in every game. This time, he's accused everyone but me. I'd prefer to ignore him because he's utterly useless as is. Who do you think is scum? | ||
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On August 21 2013 11:43 WaveofShadow wrote: I don't want to talk about Rayn at all anymore. This may be exactly what he wants at this point but I honestly don't care. I could lynch Onegu atm. I should probably read into some of the players I haven't looked at yet like Rainbows (who I know is a competent player). FT who is your PRIMARY scumread? That is, who do you want to lynch tomorrow? And what meta tells you that Geript and Vayne are scum? I don't see how either of them have really posted enough tot ell you anything. I don't really have a definitive scum read yet so I don't want to lead town astray with weak reads. My "strongest scum read" is probably sno based on a couple of posts I didn't like. I've already explained why geript and Vayne may be scum due to meta. You can have a look at some of my earlier posts to get an idea of why. Ill have a dive through Onegu's filter and see if I can pick up on something I missed on my first read through. | ||
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On August 21 2013 22:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: Koshi you need to work also on knowing who is left in the game and who is not. Other than that your post is spot on. WoS: What were you trying to accomplish with your"gambit"? You very well know this is the only possible outcome in case you do not answer me in the first place. What's the point of wasting 24 hours of my time? What's the point of looking like scum and then call out people who think you are scum scum? You are really not this stupid as town. You were just trying to mimic your meta from CCM and it can clearly be seen from your answers to me. When i call you out for your post you immediately response "Tell me how i am playing different from CCM?", while that is not even what i am asking from you!!! You are defending yourself with an meta argument when i am not even accusing you of anything yet. You are scum. FirmTofu: Why are you trying to throw dirt on me from Titanic? I did not push mislynches. I pushed one fucking mislynch in the whole fucking game and you very well know that because you were mafia and i tried really hard to get you lynched from the very beginning of the game! So, why are you lying? To make me look worse? You pushed mislynches. Namely XRZ and Koshi. You also only dropped your push on Paperscraps at the last minute when his lynch was inevitable. Clearly, I did not lie about anything. I wasn't trying to throw "dirt" on you, I was just answering WoS's question. Regardless, I really don't want to get into a shitfest argument with you right now. We agree on sn0, so let's focus on convincing the others that he's a good lynch. | ||
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On August 22 2013 04:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: Actually i did not push Paperscraps lynch, never. But fair enough. Can you make a case on Snoman then? I still do not see a better case than mine on WoS in thread and i am not making another one. WoS was supposed to read some players yesterday and he has yet to follow that up in any way. I don't mind making a case on sn0, but I'll reread yours first. I'm still a bit wavering on WoS. His defense so far has been sub-par to say the least. | ||
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Why did they kill DarthPunk? DarthPunk must've been on the right track. I'm inclined to believe that at least one of Rainbows and sn0 is scum, if not both. Lynching into one of DP's strongest scum reads is a safer bet than WoS. | ||
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On August 22 2013 04:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: How can you know WoS' defense is sub-par if you have not even read the case? I have read the case. I said I'll reread it... | ||
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On August 22 2013 04:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is certainly not the only possible solution and WIFOM. DP was definitely the strongest player in this game. No reason to not kill him whether or not he was right. He would be, at least at some point. I am unfamiliar with his reputation. Is he considered one of the best players on the site or something? | ||
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I would say the WIFOM still favors sn0 being scum over town. There are two possible scenarios: 1) If the scum team has a veteran leader, then DP may have been killed for his reputation. 2) If the scum team has no veterans, DP has to have been killed for his reads. I don't think you can say DP was looking extremely pro-town on N0. I really don't see players who are unfamiliar with his reputation killing him unless he was doing something right and they wanted to silence him. Veterans(People who are familiar with DP's repuatation): rayn Oats? geript? Vayne? yamato77? WaveofShadow? Is there anyone else? Therefore, if you believe one or more of these people are scum, then DP may have been killed for his reputation instead of his reads. Personally, geript and WoS are the scummiest on that list for me. geript due to meta and WoS for a weak defense/general apathy. I still find sn0 independently more scummy than the combined scumminess of geript and WoS. Based on your initial beliefs, you should be able to run through this logic and find out who exactly you should be voting. If you are hesitant to lynch any of the veterans, sn0 is your best bet. | ||
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On August 22 2013 05:10 Koshi wrote: ^ you haven't said why you find the Snowman scummy. + That veteran list is silly. Everytime I make a case, everyone just skims over it and nothing comes of it. I'm trying a new approach this time. asses your current base beliefs and then reach a logical conclusion while incorporating the NK. Let me know if you have trouble following the logic or if there are any holes in it. | ||
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On August 22 2013 05:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think geript is scum for two reasons. I did not like his push on Crazometer at all. The reasons were not good and it seemed like he was trying to swing the discussion off WoS (he did not comment on WoS stuff at all at first). When i said later on i think geript is scum he instantly started yelling me "i know i am lurky as scum, but now i have been busy". Over-defensive, i never even said why i think he is scum. I would like to remind you that association cases don't amount to much. Try not to base your case on him on the fact that he is associated to WoS. Remember how that logic turned out in Titanic? | ||
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On August 22 2013 05:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Nonono. It's not an association case. It does not matter what alignment WoS is. geript as town does not know WoS' alignment. He does not look / comment on the case on WoS in any way. Instead he points out another suspect with reasons i find to be weak. The correct way to play as town is to tell what do you think of the case, point out if something is wrong in it, so that townies do not look at the wrong places. Or agree with it if you do. Add something if you have something to add. geript does none of it, he just let's the case go unnoticed. Fair enough, I can see that. | ||
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Umm...no he didn't. I've read his filter and there is no retraction of the scum read on rayn anywhere between these two posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=425521¤tpage=35#687 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=425521¤tpage=42#832 | ||
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On August 23 2013 00:27 Sn0_Man wrote: Did I miss something or was *nobody* roleblocked N0? That seems important... This is what Sn0 has to says right after afking for nearly 2 irl days. He wants to draw attention to the fact that no one has claimed roleblocked. Why would anyone want to draw attention to something so inconsequential? Possible Explanation: Sn0 is scum and he deliberately didn't roleblock N0 in order to get town to think that there is no roleblocker. Possible Motivation: Sn0 wants to roleblock someone N1 so that that person looks bad Day 2 when they claim that they were roleblocked. Town will ask said claimer how it is possible that he was roleblocked when there was no one roleblocked on N0. Because no one has brought it up throughout Day 1, he wins free town cred by pointing it out and simultaneously leading town into a pointless conversation. Yes, I admit a large part of this is speculation. However, if Sn0 is actually scum, I think this is exactly what they were planning. On August 23 2013 02:43 Sn0_Man wrote: How is it remotely acceptable or town motivated to say "I'm untouchable anybody who attacks me is scum"? Thats easily a scum-favoured atmosphere to create. There was no ad-hominem, I'm commenting on the terribleness of your play. Scum-hunting, in fact. Something you MAY wish to attempt (you haven't started yet I notice). K maybe now there is ad-hom. Isn't that exactly what you are doing? You're attacking Vayne and me because we are attacking you. You haven't been actually scumhunting at all this game. You just attacked a few random people in the beginning of the game to provide the illusion of scumhunting, then you afked to allow the thread to fester. Once a few people caught on to your bullshit, you de-lurk and attack the people who attacked you. ##vote: Sn0_man | ||
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On August 23 2013 04:31 kushm4sta wrote: I think we should lynch FT today actually. Anyone want to with me? ##unvote ##vote FT You wanna provide some reasoning? Do you disagree with what I said? | ||
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On August 23 2013 04:34 kushm4sta wrote: you think scum didn't roleblock someone on purpose just so sno could say "no roleblockers lol?' why would scum do that I explained that. Scum didn't roleblock N0 so that they could roleblock N1. If they roleblock N1, the person who is roleblocked will appear scummy because no one was roleblocked N0. Scum was playing at driving discussion on Day 2 about roleblocks to divert attention away from them. Regardless, how does this "conspiracy theory" make me scummy? Care to explain? | ||
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On August 23 2013 04:34 Oatsmaster wrote: I would totally lynch FT You've been saying this for a while now. I don't really understand why you've never made the move to actually vote me. If you find me scummy, why aren't you pushing your reads? Why aren't you pressuring me? | ||
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On August 23 2013 04:43 Oatsmaster wrote: Why would scum fake a rb claim when there wasnt 1 day 1 FT? Your explanation tries really hard to paint Snodude as scummy. But its bridge too far. My intention was not really to paint Sno_man as scummy. I was literally posting stuff that I was thinking. As town, I like to be as transparent as possible. If I'm thinking something, I usually post it. I understand you think my theory is unlikely, but can you explain how: FirmTofu posts an unlikely theory=> FirmTofu is scum ? | ||
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On August 23 2013 04:52 Oatsmaster wrote: FT posts an unlikely theory that happens to paint his top scumread as scum. Sadly that theory is bullshit. Scum post bullshit. Somemore bullshit is the reason you voted for Snodude. like what the fuck is this shit? Its all speculation. You are providing shitty reasons that snodude is scum for his gameplay. scum cant find good reasons because they know they are attacking town. Your reasons are shit. Shit reasons+speculation that is totally wrong+not attacking someone who fits your apparent view of scummy play to a tee. isnt this what vayne is doing? I'm not sure how any of that is speculation. That is exactly what Sn0_man has been doing all game. Read his filter. Sn0, can you respond to my earlier post that you conveniently ignored the entire game? | ||
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On August 21 2013 10:39 FirmTofu wrote: I just caught this post. Sno, could you explain how rayn being accusatory and aggressive makes him scum? It looks like you are simply trying to discredit him here.You don't seem to be pushing for his lynch, but you want everyone to ignore him. Why would a townie want this when he isn't in rayn's crosshairs? What town motivation do you have to discredit rayn when he isn't even attacking you? | ||
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On August 23 2013 05:00 Koshi wrote: Why are people outraged by FT his insane theory while the insane theory of the Snowman was ignored? (that rayn and I are scum because we failed a play in the thread because I didn't read the scum QT) Because I'm town and scum are piling up on me. | ||
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They are the only people who are capable of figuring this game out. I unfortunately have to go to work. I'll be back in 5-6 hours. I sincerely hope you all will come to your senses by then. | ||
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On August 23 2013 07:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: You will be able to play GMM III at work? Isn't that game starting in a day or 2? | ||
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On August 23 2013 08:04 Koshi wrote: FT in GoT was terrible. Lol. You're kidding right? My top scumread was scum->Acrofales. The only thing I did wrong Day 1 was call rayn town and afk for too long. One of those two things I couldn't even control. | ||
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Do you have any reads you want to bounce off of me? | ||
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On August 23 2013 08:23 Sn0_Man wrote: You are 2/2 on repeating your mistakes I think. Scum rayn doesn't drunkpost. Scum rayn would never defend me. There is absolutely no way rayn is scum right now. | ||
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Koshi, what are your thoughts on Oats? | ||
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On August 23 2013 08:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: I'll discuss Oats with you guys on N1. We are not lynching him this phase whatever he is. I know how to catch him but his D1 play is so similar nowadays as town/mafia it's impossible to tell which one he is. What do you make of Rainbows/mkfuba interaction earlier on in the phase? Agreed on Oats. The Rainbows/mkfuba interaction was a funny one. Rainbow's case wasn't bad, but it wasn't particularly good either. It reminds me of Clarity's Day 1 case on me in Titanic. Nothing was damning and most of it was to elicit some kind of response. mkfuba's defense looks especially constructed and careful. There's some instances when he draws attention to how "unsure" he is. See: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=425521¤tpage=47#933 Sentences like, "I could be overthinking it entirely" are not what I expect from town. I think mkfuba looks scummier than rainbows. | ||
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Not saying he can't be scum, but I don't think that post makes him scum, if you catch my drift. | ||
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On August 23 2013 12:34 Rainbows wrote: Anyone have a reason to NOT lynch Fuba or Onegu? Those are both good lynches, imo. I think Sn0 is a better lynch. I somewhat disagree with rayn on WoS, but he could be scum too. | ||
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On August 23 2013 08:43 FirmTofu wrote: Agreed on Oats. The Rainbows/mkfuba interaction was a funny one. Rainbow's case wasn't bad, but it wasn't particularly good either. It reminds me of Clarity's Day 1 case on me in Titanic. Nothing was damning and most of it was to elicit some kind of response. mkfuba's defense looks especially constructed and careful. There's some instances when he draws attention to how "unsure" he is. See: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=425521¤tpage=47#933 Sentences like, "I could be overthinking it entirely" are not what I expect from town. I think mkfuba looks scummier than rainbows. Here it is for reference. | ||
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On August 23 2013 12:43 johnnywup wrote: wait, why are people voting onegu? I haven't seen any case on him where I'm at. Come to think of it, I haven't seen much of him at all where I'm at >_> or at least he's not very memorable. has there been a case against him? If so, could someone link me to it? I'm still catching up but I think geript may have been right in voting crazo. he seem pretty scummy where I'm at (his case against kush...) Onegu hasn't done much. I'm seeing a lot of apathy and general scumminess. Yeah, his lynch doesn't tell us much, but it eliminates a rather useless player and makes our endgame a little more palatable. That being said, I think there are some better lynch candidates out there that we should prioritize over Onegu. | ||
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On August 23 2013 12:46 Rainbows wrote: I'm thoroughly disappointed that nobody wants to lynch anybody when I'm around and have to sleep soon so what the fuck. The question is: do we lynch a useless scummy guy, or an active scummy guy? Because lynching into rayn/WoS if they are both town would put us in a terrible position. I think we need to realize who everyone is most content with lynching but nobody is really pushing that hard. Scum would soft-bus all day and put buddies in the 'meh, yeah i could lynch him' zone, and can't really say they WON'T lynch the guy. Scum obviously won't push their buddy that hard unless they are ##YOLO mafia. We need some fucking closure on this lynch and fast. Do what WoS says and actually take a stance on some of these people. Definitely the active scummy guy. Active players constitute the core of all scum teams. Without a leader, a scum team cannot function effectively. Active player lynches also tell us a lot more about various players. By analyzing their votes and their reads, we can ascertain plenty of information about numerous others. | ||
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On August 23 2013 12:47 Rainbows wrote: FirmTofu, just because you think Fuba is scummier than me doesn't mean you're town considering I don't know the alignment of Fuba. Point taken. | ||
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On August 23 2013 13:02 kushm4sta wrote: The reason why I don't really want to lynch sno man is that weird conspiracy theory involving rayne, koshi, and the scum qt. Do you know what I'm talking about? It just doesn't seem likely that scum would come up with that kind of thing. I'll take a look and give my thoughts. I agree that conspiracy theories are usually done by townies. Give me a few minutes. | ||
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On August 23 2013 13:41 Onegu wrote: Ok Im here just been feeling really shitty, anyways I will consolidate my case for you kush I still want answers. ##UNVOTE Going over everything now Our two lynches for today are Sno_man and WoS. Ideally, we should consolidate on one so that we can prevent scum from vote-switching to save their ally right before the deadline. Two questions for you: Which one do you think is more scummy? Why? | ||
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On August 23 2013 13:48 Rainbows wrote: The problem I have here is that you are omitting Fuba. WHY? Everyone is omitting the Fuba. He has like one vote on him, bro. That vote is you. We don't want to give scum too many options this late into day. | ||
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Oh this post. I just glazed over it initially. I don't think it's really alignment indicative. snodude looks like he's just pushing his targets, trying to throw as much shit as he can find onto them. Both town and scum are guilty of this type of play. | ||
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It would just take 2 scum to wander into the thread and save their scumbuddy. Consolidate means CONSOLIDATE people. Let's get our shit together. | ||
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On August 23 2013 15:54 WaveofShadow wrote: Night guys. Koshi and Rayn are same. You're probably getting lynched today. Why don't you post your reads before you die? Actualo something constructive if you're actually town. | ||
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Actualo=post I have no idea how that happened. | ||
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##vote: waveofshadow | ||
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On August 23 2013 16:27 Sn0_Man wrote: PS scum r happy to "consolidate" on either me or wos since we r both mislynches but they can't wholesale swap cuz it would give away the game hence tofu's shit u just caught. How could you possibly know if WoS is town or scum? You sound like you know hes town and you know this is a mislynch. Congratulations, you just won back my vote. ##vote: sno_man | ||
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What we know: 1) Rayn and Koshi returned SAME from a confirmed parity cop. 2) Koshi claims self-aware miller. Scenario 1: Rayn is town. Koshi is SAM. Rayn is framed. Scenario 2: Rayn is miller. Koshi is SAM. Scenario 3: Rayn is town. Koshi is scum. Rayn is framed. Scenario 4: Rayn is scum. Koshi is SAM. What we need to be doing now is evaluating the probability of each of these respective outcomes and deciding whether a lynch into one of these two players will yield scum. | ||
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On August 24 2013 03:16 Sn0_Man wrote: EBWOP I was talking to oats still @FT: they could both just be scum no framing involved. Yeah that too. I'll add that in. | ||
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What we know: 1) Rayn and Koshi returned SAME from a confirmed parity cop. 2) Koshi claims self-aware miller. Scenario 1: Rayn is town. Koshi is SAM. Rayn is framed. Scenario 2: Rayn is non-SAM miller. Koshi is SAM. Scenario 3: Rayn is town. Koshi is scum. Rayn is framed. Scenario 4: Rayn is scum. Koshi is SAM. Scenario 5: Rayn is town. Koshi is SAM. Koshi is framed. Scenario 6: Rayn is scum. Koshi is scum. Did I miss anything? | ||
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On August 24 2013 03:18 Sn0_Man wrote: PPS rayn godfather is also possible lets not leave those out. oh shit, I forgot about that role. >< | ||
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What we know: 1) Rayn and Koshi returned SAME from a confirmed parity cop. 2) Koshi claims self-aware miller. Scenario 1: Rayn is town. Koshi is SAM. Rayn is framed. Scenario 2: Rayn is non-SAM miller. Koshi is SAM. Scenario 3: Rayn is town. Koshi is scum. Rayn is framed. Scenario 4: Rayn is scum. Koshi is SAM. Scenario 5: Rayn is town. Koshi is SAM. Koshi is framed. Scenario 6: Rayn is scum. Koshi is scum. Scenario 7: Rayn is non-SAM miller. Koshi is scum. Scenario 8: Rayn is GF. Koshi is SAM. Koshi is framed. Did I miss anything? | ||
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On August 24 2013 03:27 Sn0_Man wrote: well TL.net trims out extra spaces apparently. Isn't it obvious that at least rayn is scum out of this? Er, actually rayn could be a town miller not self aware and Koshi could be scum didn't think of that. Seems unlikely. No, I don't think this makes rayn scum. If anything, it proves that the parity check was essentially useless because there are so many possibilities with immeasurable probabilities. | ||
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On August 24 2013 03:36 mkfuba07 wrote: Oh hey, the conclusion that I pretty much came to when this started! Well, I just got here bro. I'm still processing the flip. | ||
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Yamato, Onegu, and Rainbows are all trying to fake interest. Their apathy shines through their posts as clear as day. Sn0_man is playing illogically and is pushing rayn for no reason. He's been scummy throughout the game. I wouldn't mind lynching any of these folks. | ||
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On August 24 2013 14:57 Onegu wrote: So Im in the hospital now so this will be brief, I should be out tomorrow but not sure. So the two biggest things that stuck out to me. Im not really up for a yamato lynch. Have to go over his filter again but why wouldnt we lynch the other scummy person in sn0? Second we need to take a closer look at firmtofu there are a few reasons for this. This post is a big reason, why would you ever ignore a red check? If we just ignore it there will always talk about it, or it will come back, makeing a even bigger waste of time. He should be vig shot or lynched otherwise town atmosphre will be completely destroyed. My scum games I am very active vayne made a post about its so much easier to play when you know everything. Firm knows this. I like this post alot makes me feel better about crazy. Anyway my pain meds are kicking in. So Im out for now. This is the scummiest post I've ever read. | ||
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Furthermore, what exactly in that post made "you feel better about Crazy"? Please explain, because there is nothing redeeming about Crazy's post. | ||
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On August 24 2013 15:13 Onegu wrote: Right so you think town would claim SAM? So unless you think town would claim SAM its the exact same as a red check. And crazy post I liked because it called your post out, gave his thoughts which I thought townie, and while I want him to scum hunt and follow up on that post it made me feel townie from him. Of course, town could claim SAM. You think scum is more likely to claim SAM than town? Why? | ||
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1) Koshi is SAM and claims SAM OR 2) Koshi is scum and claims SAM BOTH are unlikely. There is no realize reason to claim in both scenarios, so it is clear that Koshi made a bad play. However, I do not think the play was alignment indicative. Bad town play is synonymous with bad scum play in that neither alignment want to be doing it. If you can explain to me why scum Koshi would claim SAM, I may consider your theory. | ||
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On August 24 2013 15:27 Onegu wrote: To give him protection against red checks. 3 scum GF goon framer, framer claims SAM and frames goon every night you habe complete protection from red checks on every scum player. I can see that happening, but I still don't think it's as likely as Koshi being idiot town. We can look into a Koshi lynch if rayn doesn't get shot tonight. I'm not totally against lynching him. | ||
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On August 24 2013 15:31 mkfuba07 wrote: @FT: Why is situation 1 unlikely? @Onegu: Don't you find it incredibly dangerous to fakeclaim a named role, which is typically claimed immediately if it exists, before everyone in the game has even posted? Any of the remaining people could have been the actual SAM. And if he was going to fakeclaim in that situation, then why wait to claim instead of doing it earlier? Koshi claiming SAM as an SAM is clearly stupid. Why claim when there is absolutely no net gain to town with your claim? You draw attention to yourself. You risk being counter-claimed. People like Onegu will accuse you of scum because this is a potential scum play. etc.. | ||
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Do you think Koshi is a better lynch than Yamato? | ||
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I don't like the fact that you're content watching everyone argue while you ask a few questions here and there from the sidelines. The apathy is strong with you. Care to jump into the action? What are your thoughts on the Rayn/Koshi situation? Who do you think is our best lynch for Day 2? | ||
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On August 24 2013 15:47 Onegu wrote: I dont want to lynch him, if you think it is most likely he is town why would you be okmwith his lynch. While I believe rayne is town also, how koshi made his check makes me believe he is SAM, so it is much more important to shoot rayne because he has nothing to say he isnt scum while koshi does and we cant just leave a red check. I was null on koshi, not most likely town. I agree that rayn should be shot, but in the event that he isn't shot, who is your top lynch target? | ||
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On August 24 2013 15:48 mkfuba07 wrote: @FT: First of all, if you're SAM and someone counter-claims you, then they're scum. You've just gotten a 1-for-1 trade (at worst). Pretty good deal. Second, if you are town and know that you will show red to cop checks, you should tell town that. It avoids the really shitty situation where someone checks you, you come up red, and THEN claim SAM. I've actually never been in a game where someone has said it doesn't make sense to claim when you're SAM, so I'm really confused as to why that idea seems so prevalent this game. So you're saying Koshi is probably town? I'm only saying that Koshi is equally likely to be scum or town. I don't think people understand where I stand on the issue. | ||
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I really don't see that interaction as particularly condemning of Yamato. I see Yamato as scum more due to his general scummy attitude and the parallels I can draw between his play today and his play in his previous scum games. The similarity is striking enough to justify a lynch for sure. That being said, I think sn0 man is being unfairly ignored by town during this day. This kid hasn't posted anything of value for a while and was the counter-wagon to the WoS mislynch. Think back to Sicilian if you can. Sno man is the new sloosh. Ill be back tomorrow but I'm voting snoman for now. Pressure him. Force him to provide reads. Then lynch his scummy ass. ##vote: sn0_man | ||
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I retract all previous accusations of Onegu. Onegu is playing far too differently than his scum games to be scum. Scum Onegu is aggressive and hot-headed. Most of his cases are OMGUS. This game he voluntarily pursued me. He initiate confrontation and pursued it to such an extent that it made him a viable alternative lynch to Yamato. Scum Onegu never plays like this. Scum Onegu doesn't take these kinds of risks. Sn0_man is totes scum. I cannot believe how much he has gotten away with since he survived the lynch. Scum clearly shifted the tide of WoS/Sn0 wagons. The fact that the wagons were so close is a testament to this fact. Sn0 has been tunneled on a handful of people the entire game. He hasn't bothered to provide reads on anyone else and has been content watching the game from the sidelines making baseless accusation towards rayn and koshi(probably a bus) the whole game. The , his only post today was a wasted vote towards rayn who is next to impossible to lynch right now. He hasn't done JACK SHIT the entire game and we are gonna lose because no one is fucking realizing this fact. | ||
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Rayn, get your demoralized ass out of the fucking gutter and start playing the game. I don't want deadweight dragging us down. | ||
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On August 26 2013 16:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: Onegu and FT, vote for Rainbows. I'm voting my strongest scum read and that is snoman. Either you convince me otherwise or you vote for snoman yourself. | ||
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On August 26 2013 17:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: Can we actually lynch him? Yes. I think there only 4 votes on Onegu. | ||
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On August 26 2013 17:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: If we all vote for Sno, we need at least 2 of yamato/kush/johnny to vote for him. If sno comes back he will switch to Onegu, then we need 3 of hose guys... I don't think that's gonna be possible. Do we need less for a rainbows lynch? | ||
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I want to lynch sno... | ||
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Also, rainbows has been looking rather diffident since fuba became confirmedish town vig. Looks like he's shooting in the dark, not really doing anything of value to town. I can lynch him. He's definitely a better lynch than Onegu. ##vote: Rainbows | ||
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Stupid autocorrect | ||
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Rayn flipped suspicious citizen. Rayn is SAME with Koshi, so Koshi is either scum or SAM. The NK narrows down a ton of possibilities. So this begs the question, why was rayn killed? Plenty of people were suspicious of rayn; namely Vayne, sn0, and Koshi. Rayn's death revealed a ton of information that town can use to figure out this game. Rayn kill does NOT make sense based on the information we have at hand. The only remaining possibility is if rayn was pushing a lynch on scum. Enter Sn0. Towards the end of the previous day, Sn0 was being heavily pressured by Rayn. Rayn vowed to push a lynch on Sn0, and lo and behold, he dies at night. Sn0 has been obvious scum the entire game and no one is pressuring him like they should be except Rayn and I. If we can't consolidate our votes on Sn0, we lose. ##vote: Sn0_man | ||
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1) I killed my strongest townread. 2) I killed the one guy pursuing my strongest scumread. 3) I would kill someone that has defended me throughout the game. 4) I would kill someone whose death would reveal a ton of information to town. Rayn's death was a terrible NK. I would never kill town rayn as scum because he is always too aggressive and makes stupid plays. | ||
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On August 28 2013 02:58 Sn0_Man wrote: I was wondering when scum was gonna show up to present that theory. Its the only reason I can think of that they killed rayn actually: to paint me as scum. You're defending yourself with WIFOM? | ||
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Give me your thoughts on Sn0_man. Scumteam is: Sn0_man/Koshi and one of Rainbows/Yamato/johnnywup. Vayne is possible scum but significantly less likely. Koshi is scum who fakeclaimed SAM so that he would never be checked. I've already explained Sn0_man. | ||
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On August 28 2013 03:05 Rainbows wrote: So we're lynching FT or Sn0 today? That sounds fun. Double bus? Or one mafia and one town? Because both are not town. Rainbows, if you are town, can you explain why you think Sn0_man is town? I've seen Koshi's explanation. I've seen Sn0_man's explanation. I haven't seen yours. | ||
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On August 28 2013 03:08 kushm4sta wrote: um rayne is the same as koshi?? when did that happen? The WoS check was rayn SAME with Koshi. Did you not catch that? lol. | ||
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On August 28 2013 03:14 Sn0_Man wrote: Tofu what happened to this? You never came close to retracting that, but rainbows is barely under suspicion from you ATM. What did he do to change that? Nothing changed. Even then, I wanted to lynch Sn0 over Rainbows. I only switched to rainbows because that was the only alternative lynch to Onegu, who I thought was town. | ||
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Please, please, please, please read if you are planning on voting me today. See how many times I refused to kill rayn. If you have time, read rayn's filter in that game. It is almost identical. | ||
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On August 28 2013 03:21 Sn0_Man wrote: You were driving the onegu lynch as hard as you could until it became apparent that he would be lynched. Then you ran for the hills lol. As I mentioned earlier, a clear case of distancing from the mislynch. Rainbows wasn't much of an alternative it doesn't look like. In fact, I'd say yamato would have been a far more logical option to divert the lynch off of onegu, and he is at the same level of "suspicion" in your last post. What gives? I would have voted for Yamato, but rayn had his vote on Rainbows and wanted me to vote him. Since I knew rayn would be awake for that time period and I knew I could trust him to push his lynch, I left my vote on Rainbows. I had to go to sleep and I didn't want to stay awake arguing about how Yamato might have been a better lynch than Rainbows when all I wanted was for Onegu not to be lynched. I flipped on Onegu because I saw how he reacted to his inevitable death. In all of his other games as scum, he is always fighting till the end. In this game, he completely gave up. It was only after I saw his reaction that I knew he had to be town. | ||
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On August 28 2013 03:23 Rainbows wrote: I don't think anybody has ever defended Tofu ever this game except Kush. Rayn too. | ||
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On August 28 2013 03:29 Sn0_Man wrote: Tofu you'd look a lot better if you were posting before you were a/the clear lynch candidate Thanks for pointing out the obvious. I would have looked at the thread beforehand had I known town would go full retard. | ||
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##unvote ##Vote:Koshi | ||
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About johnny. I think he is a disillusioned townie that has no idea what he's doing. Early in the day, he was confused as to why everyone was voting Onegu and later, Onegu was one of his strongest scum reads. Scum don't really want to be associated with inevitable lynches. If anything, they would want to push the Onegu lynch early and then change off it later so they wouldn't be associated with it. | ||
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We know WoS got a SAME check on Koshi and rayn. Rayn flipped suspicious citizen, so we know he would read RED. Koshi is the same as Rayn, so we know he reads RED as well. Therefore, it is implicit in this logic that Koshi is 50/50 scum/SAM. Those are better odds than we can justify for anyone in this thread and they are derived independently of his scummy behavior. | ||
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On August 28 2013 13:54 VayneAuthority wrote: im here, and neither me or mkfuba is scum so I disagree with your theory. Fair enough. mkfuba is definitely town. I'm glad you are here. What do you think of johnnywup? | ||
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On August 28 2013 13:56 Sn0_Man wrote: I'm here, and I don't see any new information coming to light. If you want to make a case on Koshi based on his actions I'm game, but if you really want to get out of being lynched your best bets are rainbows and vayne. And Fuba is quite clearly not scum. Sn0, if you are town, you need to stop tunneling me so we can lynch scum. I'm willing to consider the possibility, but you have to be willing to read my arguments. I'm not as interested in not being lynched as I am in finding scum. Koshi has to have a 50/50 possibility of being scum. He either lied or didn't lie about his SAM claim. He could fall on either side of that coin. Now, can you tell me why he falls on the town side as opposed to the scum side? | ||
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You think Sn0 and I have been bussing each other for the entire game? How can you justify that stance based on the flips? If we were mafia together, rayn was a crucial asset to both of us. | ||
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On August 28 2013 14:22 VayneAuthority wrote: For me koshi is actually SAM because he made the claim when only like half the game had posted so far. It seems too risky for a scum to do that when they are in no real danger at the chance of being CC'ed. If he somehow got lucky then I can live with that...I don't mind being beaten by luck. This was actually my initial reasoning. Then, Onegu suggested that Koshi made a deliberate play to stay one step ahead of town. At first, it sounded ridiculous, but I'm starting to warm up to this theory. Koshi probably claimed to ensure that no one would ever check him and/or to ensure that a red check on him would be doubted immediately. If he were the framer, this would make even more sense. I don't think the framer can frame himself, so the only foolproof way to avoid being checked is to claim SAM. Now that I think about it, it's all starting to make sense... I feel like scum are playing us right now. Koshi is being extremely manipulative and intelligent. This reeks of his scum play. | ||
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On August 28 2013 14:30 VayneAuthority wrote: no, it's not. It's a semi-closed setup if you read =/ All power roles are individual people, so you can't have two of them. There only only be more than 1 of vanilla town and vanilla scum. I don't think that is correct, Vayne. Setup: Semi-closed. You will know the roles, but not how many of each there will be. It clearly states we do not know how many of ANY roles there will be. | ||
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On August 28 2013 14:46 Sn0_Man wrote: You see, I was totally on board with the "Koshi BS'd his SAM claim for town cred" argument 3 days ago. Now... Well lets just say Tofu is proving himself willing to say literally anything that will avoid his lynch. Like seriously, he reeks of desperation and is willing to say *anything* to throw suspicion on anybody else. If tofu wasn't so obviously scum he might have a point but reading Koshi's whole filter smells too much town. I'm trying to figure out the game. You are tunneling me to oblivion. I'm the desperate one here? I gave you chance and you didn't take it. I will be ignoring you from now on. | ||
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Order of Scummy from Greatest to Least: Koshi Sn0 Yamato johnny Rainbows Vayne Everyone else is totes town. | ||
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On August 29 2013 10:30 johnnywup wrote: who should i vote for fuba? I don't want to die ----------- why are you tunneling me so hard? and yes vayne i'm busy school started so i'm not here throughout the day. If you want to clear your name, you should vote sn0_man. Both fuba and I are convinced sn0 is scum. You would probably look better in fuba's eyes if you voted for one of his strongest scumreads. | ||
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On August 29 2013 10:43 mkfuba07 wrote: FT: Sorry if I missed it, but why is koshi your top priority? (router issues took away my last few hours of filter time XD) I'll give you a quick summary. 1) Koshi is pushing a case against me that is based on posts I made a lifetime ago. There is no reason why he should suddenly push my lynch when there is nothing he can point to about my recent behavior that is scummy. Take a look at his case against me and how old the posts that he's quoting are. 2) Koshi is matching his scum meta perfectly. When he is scum, he plays confidently and his reads always sound assertive and indignant. When he is town, he sounds weak and flimsy. This game, he started off with his town meta, then suddenly shifted into his scum meta in recent cycles. He has the audacity to say that I have played with him in enough games to know his meta and then uses that to justify his scum meta actually being his town meta. It's completely absurd. 3) He has provided next to 0 analysis beyond his accusations of me. He is using tunneling as a device to avoid providing reads on other people. Sn0 at least has given his thoughts about numerous lynch candidates. Koshi seems to have eyes only for me. 4) Koshi's SAM claim and WoS' check mean that Koshi has a 50/50 chance of flipping scum regardless of his scummy behavior. Even if you don't consider him scummy, you cannot deny this fact. 50/50 odds are better than I can say for most people in this game. | ||
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On August 29 2013 10:52 johnnywup wrote: wtf ft he can speak for himself. wouldn't you want me to vote for one of YOUR biggest scumreads rather than HIS biggest scumreads? You asked me who fuba would want you to vote for and I answered. Chill out yo. Also, we share the same scumreads pretty much. | ||
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On August 29 2013 10:59 kushm4sta wrote: your 50/50 thing literally makes no sense. i think the scumteam is johnny/sn0/yamato atm Okay kush. I'm going to explain this to you as clearly as possible. WoS was parity cop. WoS got SAME on rayn(suspicious citizen) and Koshi(SAM claim) rayn is RED, thus Koshi must be RED. Koshi is red: the only two possibilities are Koshi is scum or Koshi is SAM. Koshi is either scum lying about being SAM or he is really SAM. 2 options. There is no other option. Koshi is either lying or he isn't. 50/50. Do you get it now? | ||
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On August 29 2013 11:28 VayneAuthority wrote: just lynch em both, no way sn0 and FT are both town. one percent chance of that occurring I'm okay with this. Lynch me if sn0 flips town. ##vote: Sn0_man | ||
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Because he's the hero this town deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So we'll hunt him. Because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. A dark knight. Anyone still wanna lynch sn0? | ||
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On August 29 2013 16:32 Koshi wrote: Why do you keep repeating this? Your cases this game are so incredible weak and illogical. Actually, my case is the very definition of logical. No one likes to listen to reason in this town, so we will lose. | ||
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On August 29 2013 23:15 Sn0_Man wrote: 4 Hours before deadline. Lets lynch this guy I think. Meanwhile long periods of AFK waiting for NK. lol. this guy. roflcopter. | ||
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You'll hit mafia, so it'll give us a lot of room to work with. Then, you are going to have to reevaluate your reads of Koshi because he is scum. GL HF town. I really don't see us losing this even if you lynch me. | ||
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