Titanic Mini Mafia! - Page 97

On July 31 2013 01:37 IMCaptainJackSparrow wrote:

It took Stutters a day and a half to get those reads...

His D1 effort was divided in two: one half dedicated to playing the game, the other dedicated to taking cheap shots at me and calling me scum without saying why...

On July 31 2013 01:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:

I didn´t dodge the question. If you had read the thread you would know i have answered it. I can do it again.

I did not want to no-lynch, and in case i am wrong, because you know - i can be wrong too, i voted for Paper. He already had a majority on him so all my vote did was to ensure scum vote shenanigans in case Paper was in fact scum.

Why are you not reading and why are YOU dodging my questions?

On July 31 2013 01:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:

vayne no there isn´t. and i don´t buddy you as scum. if i have done so there is some other reason than that the person is you.

On July 31 2013 01:42 hzflank wrote:
And so we end up at:

If we mislynch today then we need to cop check Rayn.

Which is where I started

On July 31 2013 01:17 VayneAuthority wrote:


yea I think it's really weird that he is just lurking now and all pressure from him disappeared after this shit storm. Would be really surprised if he isn't scum considering all the logical fallacies he has made today

On July 31 2013 01:55 IMCaptainJackSparrow wrote:
Ok I'll buy the 180 flips from FT. He changed his mind on XRZ like three times in the first page of his filter. I'm still reluctant to think he is scummier than the other three people I have mentioned before though. Those posts could just be coming from a paranoid or bad townie. It shows that he is trying to solve the game, however, which I can appreciate. I'm not entirely sure scum would be that obvious about flip-flopping. It seems like they would try to tunnel someone to death just to have a scumread (Stutters).

On July 31 2013 02:20 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm sorry, how is changing your reads upon a flip considered scummy. If you would like, I'll quote all the games where I've done that as town.

It's called ADAPTING TO NEW INFORMATION.

On July 19 2013 07:30 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm going to post my scumreads. I'll decide later if I want to post my null reads. I probably won't post my town reads.

Proposed Scum:
slOosh
kholly
layabout
Malongo


I'm going to start with slOosh because he is the person that holds this proposed scumteam together. Most of my analysis will focus on the concrete information obtained from the last few hours of Day 1 regarding votes.

slOosh: slOosh never bothered to defend himself when he was faced with an imminent lynch. Many people came to his defense(me included), with little reasoning to justify his survival. slOosh is a borderline lurker and all he has ever done this game is defend himself. There is absolutely no scumhunting in his filter, just see for yourself.

kholly: I think kholly was a significant part of the reason why VE got lynched. By unvoting and voting repeatedly, he confused everyone who was trying to figure out the vote count. He was the only person to waffle between a MZ lynch and VE lynch, indicating that he was apathetic between them.

To top it all off, kholly also happens to have a terrible list of proposed scum in:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884&currentpage=14#267

He never pushes his reads either. If he truly believed these people were scum, as his filter indicates, why didn't he ever try to get them lynched?

layabout:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884&currentpage=14#266
Doesn't think we should share who we pm. Sounds like he is in favor of withholding information.
Wants to kill Vayne because he doesn't use pms. Terrible reasoning. As I mentioned before, Vayne is stating an opinion that he expressed during pre-game. Why should that be alignment-indicative at all?

Defends Malongo, attacks VE
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884&currentpage=19#364

Says he wants to lynch Vivax, but never follows up
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884&currentpage=19#379

Overall goal seems to be to keep slOosh alive. I think that if slOosh flips mafia, this guy should be our #1 target.

Malongo: Malongo is inexorably linked to each one of these guys. I have a feeling that because VE tried to attack Malongo, scum decided VE needed to die. All of the above players ganged up on VE in order to push attention away from Malongo.

When push came to shove and VE claimed, these guys decided they should hop on another town wagon to keep slOosh alive. They see Mr. Wiggles voting Mz and decide that he would be an easy target to justify a lynch on.

---

Note that NONE of these players ever gave a good reason why they thought slOosh was innocent. They barely even talked about slOosh. Why did they vote MZ instead of slOosh if they could never provide a legitimate reason why slOosh wasn't mafia? Consider that voting slOosh would guarantee VE's survival, whereas a vote on MZ was not likely to go through. They would have to be very certain of slOosh's alignment in order to adequately justify voting for MZ, considering the situation.

If they actually wanted to save VE, they would have voted slOosh. Why didn't they?

If slOosh is in fact mafia, this indicates that they are avoiding interacting with their teammates to prevent links being formed between each other.

I think the most critical person to lynch in Day 2 is slOosh. With his alignment, we get a plethora of information about numerous people and the chances of him flipping scum are quite high.

On July 10 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote:
FirmTofu's Suspicion Meter™

FirmTofu's patented suspicion meter is guaranteed to find scum or your money back! Just read carefully and vote accordingly and you will never be disappointed!

Target: jampidampi


Here we have jampidampi's first post. Let's first establish some context. jampidampi's first post is on page 21. A townie at this point should be looking for people who are actively scummy. He should be actively scumhunting. Instead, we see jampidampi trying to quickly establish town cred by accusing a player(me) who hasn't really contributed to the thread. Sure, it isn't scummy to draw attention to me, but it is scummy to believe that I am the best target to lynch. This play falls more in line with the presumption that jampidampi is scum. Scum jampidampi should be trying to "pretend" he's scumhunting by popping in and accusing lurkers while actually barely contributing at all.
Suspicion: +10

jampidampi's filter continues along this same line of thought for quite some time. He continues to avoid causing waves by questioning lurkers who are unlikely to respond to his accusations.



Suspicion: +20

He does redeem himself however, by saying that Meapak(confirmed town) should be saved.

We have to remember that this does not exonerate jampidampi by any means. A scum jampidampi would already know Meapak is town and because Meapak is set to be nuked, he would want to let everyone know that he thinks Meapak is town to establish some town cred. It is tough to say one way or the other, so I consider this quote to be a null read.
Suspicion: +0

The Damning Evidence:

We all know that rayn didn't launch the nuke. How could he? He was VT. jampidampi seems to know this. All of his statements indicate that he already knows that rayn didn't launch the nuke and is trying to discredit rayn.

If jampidampi knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke, he must have known who DID.
Therefore, jampidampi could either be the townie that launched the nuke OR he could be on the scumteam that launched the nuke.

Scenario 1: jampidampi=town
If jampidampi was town and he truly believed that rayn lied about launching the nuke, why didn't he pursue rayn as a lynch target? All he did was try and discredit him!

Scenario 2: jampidampi=town
This seems to be the most logical conclusion, assuming that jampidampi already knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke.

Therefore, if you believe that jampidampi knew rayn didn't launch the nuke, the most logical approach would be to assume that jampidampi is scum.
Suspicion: +50

Suspicion Meter Report: 80
Suggested Course of Action: Lynch Target
I believe that jampidampi targeted Meapak with the nuke secretly. Once rayn claimed he had launched the nuke, scum jampidampi decided he could discredit him to get free town cred After all, he knew MZ was town and he knew rayn was lying. He knew that, eventually, rayn would cave in to his pressure and be caught lying, placing rayn in a difficult position.

On July 12 2013 07:54 FirmTofu wrote:
Voting Analysis:
OriginalName (11): austinmcc, Chezinu, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion, Xatalos, FirmTofu,
Alakaslam, geript, ghost_403, Chezinu, geript, TanGeng, gumshoe, johnnywup, Onegu

Dandel Ion (8): johnnywup, WaveofShadow, OriginalName, Ace, VayneAuthority,
strongandbig, Meapak_Ziphh, Alakaslam, Stutters695, Nirvana.Gabo

jampidampi (12): FirmTofu, Chezinu, austinmcc, Xatalos, FirmTofu, geript, johnnywup, Z-Boson, VayneAuthority, geript, Koshi, Onegu, Stutters695, Ace, Alakaslam

MajuGarzett (3): VayneAuthority, Xatalos, [UoN]Sentinel, jampidampi, WaveofShadow, geript, Ace, Alakaslam, Koshi, johnnywup, Alakaslam, geript

Day 1:
OriginalName vs Dandel Ion

We know the alignments of both people. We can infer that scum would probably not want to be bussing on day 1, when it is not absolutely necessary. Therefore, the people on the Dandel wagon are extremely likely to be town and the people on the ON wagon are probably around an even split between town and scum.

The scummiest people on the ON wagon are those who pushed it to save Dandel from death. That includes me, but because I know I am town, I will exclude myself from this analysis.

Remember, the deciding votes are especially important.

In my opinion, these are are people coming off as scummy from the ON lynch (from most scummy to least):
ghost_403/Koshi
Alakaslam
gumshoe
Onegu
geript
Chezinu
austinmcc

Alakaslam is a funny one. He initially hopped on the Dandel lynch when he thought it was inevitable. Then, when it looked like ON was picking up steam, he hopped on that lynch. Finally, when the lynch was imminent, he jumped over to Vayne to appear like he had nothing to do with the mislynch. It feels like he knew what the flip would be beforehand.

Day 2:
This day is a bit harder to analyze. We know that Maju is somewhat more likely to be scum because of the flip but we can't be certain.

People coming off as scummy from the jampi lynch (from most scummy to least):
Onegu
Alakaslam
ghost_403/Koshi
geript
(gumshoe for not voting)

These are basically the people that couldn't decide one way or another until the lynch was already decided. They just jumped onto the wagon with the most votes and hoped that no one would care. This signifies apathy and is somewhat suggestive that these players are trying to more concerned about staying in the town's "good books" as long as possible instead of scumhunting.

I no longer think Vayne or Ace are scum.

On July 31 2013 02:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:

You are already giving yourself an out before the flip so you can call who the fuck you want scum before, as it doesn´t mean shit after the flip.

If you are already thinking about the reads after flip, you are not trying to lynch scum, because you already know the guy is going to flip town. Why do you think about how your reads change if you lynch town? You should be lynching scum.

On July 31 2013 02:36 FirmTofu wrote:
rayn either has not read my posts or is deliberately misrepresenting me. This is awful play, rayn. You aren't this bad.

On July 31 2013 02:37 exarezee wrote:
@Tofu

Here is the problem with your argument. You can't say I change my reads all the time as town in games a,b,c -> I am changing my reads all the time this game, thus I am town. I don't know if you change your reads all the time as scum or not. I assume players will want to emulate town as scum. Thus, you should be changing your reads all the time as scum too. Thus your argument just cannot be made.

On July 31 2013 02:33 FirmTofu wrote:

Read again. My reads only changed after the flip.

The timeline is as follows:
1) I posted a list of reads because I thought I was going to be lynched. These reads were based on the assumption that PS would flip mafia.
2) PS flipped town
3) THEN, I changed my reads to reflect the new information.

On July 31 2013 02:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:

No, it´s the attitude you had at the lynch. Someone asked you "what if PS flips town". You reply "that makes this and that different". You have clearly thought about the "what if"-scenario before the flip. Why did you not just say "your question is stupid because Paper is gonna flip red" as he is your scumread. Your reads after the flip are nothing like you quoted in NWM and Sicilian. They are wishy washy, like "this is how he plays as town, i don´t know what to make of it, so null - leaning scum". Wtf?

Also your read on Koshi goes from top 1 scumread to town in 2 hours without no reasoning at all. That´s also fishy and you have still not explained that.