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hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 16:34 GMT
#1601
@Stim

You recently claimed to have a null read on Aqua. Is that still the case?

Please give us as much info as you can regarding your read on Aqua.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 16:35 GMT
#1602
On June 30 2013 01:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet.


Think about this again, very carefully.

Do you still stand by that statement?
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
June 29 2013 16:52 GMT
#1603
Remember to send the ALL of the hosts your night actions before the deadline!
Night action deadline is in
Day 3 Starts in
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 17:03 GMT
#1604
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.


This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 17:03 GMT
#1605
On June 29 2013 20:54 Spicydinosaur wrote:

I didnt find his call for people to claim roleblock scummy though as its standard mafia game practice to claim (learned this lesson the hard way).


Context is important. Not all games have Jailkeepers. Not all games lose two greens on day 1 and a blue on night one.

We know that either Hurricane was tracked or Hurricane is Framer. We did not know that at the time, but the scum team knew it.

When Aqua wanted the roleblocked claim we did not know whether or not we had a Jailkeeper, and the scum team did not know this either.

Assuming that Hurricane is town: which team had the most to gain from knowing whether someone was roleblocked?

The information allowed the scum team to pin down Hurricane's role (they already tracked him). They already killed a blue on night one and a JK kill on night 2 would have been the best scenario for them. Also, the scum team knew that Onegu might claim today. He could be counter claimed by a Watcher or Tracker. If a Tracker counter claimed then the scum got a 100% read on Hurricane's role.

On the other hand, the information allowed the town to know that there is no roleblocker or JK in the game. What benefit did the town gain from knowing that?

I swear, the second I read Aqua's Public Service Announcement I face-palmed. I did not think that Aqua was scum as he was in my town list, but I did think that he was making a mistake.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 17:04 GMT
#1606
On June 30 2013 02:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.


This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely.


Gah I did not want this posted yet :p

A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 17:07 GMT
#1607
On June 30 2013 02:04 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 02:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.


This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely.


Gah I did not want this posted yet :p

A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero.


Apologies. But at least this reinforces my Town read on you, for whatever that's worth.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 17:10 GMT
#1608
On June 30 2013 02:03 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 20:54 Spicydinosaur wrote:

I didnt find his call for people to claim roleblock scummy though as its standard mafia game practice to claim (learned this lesson the hard way).


Context is important. Not all games have Jailkeepers. Not all games lose two greens on day 1 and a blue on night one.

We know that either Hurricane was tracked or Hurricane is Framer. We did not know that at the time, but the scum team knew it.

When Aqua wanted the roleblocked claim we did not know whether or not we had a Jailkeeper, and the scum team did not know this either.

Assuming that Hurricane is town: which team had the most to gain from knowing whether someone was roleblocked?

The information allowed the scum team to pin down Hurricane's role (they already tracked him). They already killed a blue on night one and a JK kill on night 2 would have been the best scenario for them. Also, the scum team knew that Onegu might claim today. He could be counter claimed by a Watcher or Tracker. If a Tracker counter claimed then the scum got a 100% read on Hurricane's role.

On the other hand, the information allowed the town to know that there is no roleblocker or JK in the game. What benefit did the town gain from knowing that?

I swear, the second I read Aqua's Public Service Announcement I face-palmed. I did not think that Aqua was scum as he was in my town list, but I did think that he was making a mistake.


Ditto for Aqua's policy post that tried to defer the Vig Shot on Onegu.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 17:12 GMT
#1609
On June 30 2013 02:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 02:04 hzflank wrote:
On June 30 2013 02:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.


This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely.


Gah I did not want this posted yet :p

A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero.


Apologies. But at least this reinforces my Town read on you, for whatever that's worth.


I have been thinking a lot about Mafia as this is my first game. One of the reasons we are losing if because the town players are playing Mafia very badly. We are letting the scum pretend to be bad town. We are defending scum so that they do not have to defend themselves.

I am as guilty of this as anyone. However, we need to start actually playing the game if we want to win.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 17:15 GMT
#1610
EBWOP

In addition that that: if you have a strong town read on someone then play with them. We can set people up as a team. I tried to do it yesterday with Aqua, twice.

The first time it worked and we put pressure on Onegu. The second time it failed (I expected either Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote at the last second).
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 17:19 GMT
#1611
On June 30 2013 02:12 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 02:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 02:04 hzflank wrote:
On June 30 2013 02:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.


This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely.


Gah I did not want this posted yet :p

A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero.


Apologies. But at least this reinforces my Town read on you, for whatever that's worth.


I have been thinking a lot about Mafia as this is my first game. One of the reasons we are losing if because the town players are playing Mafia very badly. We are letting the scum pretend to be bad town. We are defending scum so that they do not have to defend themselves.

I am as guilty of this as anyone. However, we need to start actually playing the game if we want to win.


To be fair, there was a lot of Town playing as actual Bad Town this game as well...

I'm hesitant to publicly team up in a 3-Man Townie squad, because that basically tells the mafia exactly how to direct their NK's.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 17:22 GMT
#1612
On June 30 2013 02:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 02:12 hzflank wrote:
On June 30 2013 02:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 02:04 hzflank wrote:
On June 30 2013 02:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.


This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely.


Gah I did not want this posted yet :p

A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero.


Apologies. But at least this reinforces my Town read on you, for whatever that's worth.


I have been thinking a lot about Mafia as this is my first game. One of the reasons we are losing if because the town players are playing Mafia very badly. We are letting the scum pretend to be bad town. We are defending scum so that they do not have to defend themselves.

I am as guilty of this as anyone. However, we need to start actually playing the game if we want to win.


To be fair, there was a lot of Town playing as actual Bad Town this game as well...

I'm hesitant to publicly team up in a 3-Man Townie squad, because that basically tells the mafia exactly how to direct their NK's.


They already know how to plan their NKs. Once the night actions are closed I will tell you who is NKed tonight.

Lets continue this after night actions are in. I will explain how I think certain people should play as a team on day 3 (if they are town).
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 17:25 GMT
#1613
@Hurricane
Please do not analyze the respective players who have posted their cases yet. We have still yet to hear from StiM and Meow; I would like to give them some time to respond.

In the meantime, look through Spicy's and Aqua's posts and give me your thoughts about them like you said you would.

It would also be very useful to consider Onegu's behaviors. Try to deduce who he is protecting and who is protecting him.

When you are finished compiling the posts about Aqua and Spicy respectively, tell me but do not post. We need to time everything perfectly. So far, I think we are doing well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 17:28 GMT
#1614
On June 30 2013 02:25 FirmTofu wrote:
@Hurricane
Please do not analyze the respective players who have posted their cases yet. We have still yet to hear from StiM and Meow; I would like to give them some time to respond.

In the meantime, look through Spicy's and Aqua's posts and give me your thoughts about them like you said you would.

It would also be very useful to consider Onegu's behaviors. Try to deduce who he is protecting and who is protecting him.

When you are finished compiling the posts about Aqua and Spicy respectively, tell me but do not post. We need to time everything perfectly. So far, I think we are doing well.

EBWOP:
To clarify, I want you to analyze them but not post it publically as soon as you are finished.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 21:32 GMT
#1615
I am changing a lot of my opinions while reading the thread thoroughly. I currently believe that StiM will be the most optimal lynch after we lynch Onegu. I will provide my reasoning for why after scum submit their night actions. Please be patient.

@StiM and LoneMeow
Please post your case ASAP or we will be forced to lynch you. If you are running short on time, you can post an abbreviated version.

@Spicy
I am warming up to you a little bit. If you had to pick a mafia between LoneMeow and Aquanim, which one would be more likely to you?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 23:10 GMT
#1616
On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote:
Simplified:

Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane has a power role


Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane


Can someone look at this again for me. I think that I made a mistake but I cannot figure out where. Why can Hurricane not be Mafia Framer at this point?
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 23:14 GMT
#1617
Alakaslam tracked Onegu. Onegu visited Hurricane.

Onegu could be Framer. Hurricane could be scum and lying about visiting Alakaslam.

Possible? (ignore reads, just look at actions).
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 23:15 GMT
#1618
If Onegu flips Framer then Hurricane is scum? Any other explanations?
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
June 29 2013 23:28 GMT
#1619
Night action deadline is in
Day 3 Starts in

twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 23:40 GMT
#1620
On June 28 2013 18:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out!

A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons
A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.)

Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story.


If Onegu was a Framer, then Onegu would not know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam. The only way that Onegu could of known is if Onegu Framed Hurricane at the same time as another scum Tracked Hurricane. How likely is that?

The only other way for Onegu to know is if Hurricane is scum. Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim by saying that he did indeed visit Alakaslam. But he did it in a non-committal way which could be seen as an attempt to leave himself an out.
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