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On June 29 2013 16:41 FirmTofu wrote:
Aquanim. Read carefully. I think I have figured out the best way to exonerate yourself.
Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours.
If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu.
I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through.
Okay, I can do that. If you want my best possible case, it will take some time though. I intend to post it at the start of the one-hour night action resolution phase, unless you have some objection.
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On June 29 2013 17:40 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 16:41 FirmTofu wrote:
Aquanim. Read carefully. I think I have figured out the best way to exonerate yourself.
Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours.
If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu.
I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through. Okay, I can do that. If you want my best possible case, it will take some time though. I intend to post it at the start of the one-hour night action resolution phase, unless you have some objection.
Not that late. We'll need some time to discuss it before I die tonight. I'll ask Hurricane and the others when they're available and we can set a deadline for you. You should probably get started ASAP and have it ready to post at any time 5 hours before night ends.
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Spicy, I would like to extend the same courtesy to you. Please make a strong case on your best scum read so that we may ascertain your alignment. Tell us why we should vote for him instead of you. If you do not do this, you will be the default lynch after Onegu dies.
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So just a thought you guys have me confirmed mafia, so why not wait to lynch me doesnt it give you more info to see where my vote goes
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On June 29 2013 18:09 FirmTofu wrote:
Spicy, I would like to extend the same courtesy to you. Please make a strong case on your best scum read so that we may ascertain your alignment. Tell us why we should vote for him instead of you. If you do not do this, you will be the default lynch after Onegu dies.
Cant do quotes right now because im posting from a phone.
Onegu is obviously scum at this point. Though everyone will admit that so its irrelevant.
Either lone or stim is scum or both. Im not convinced of stim as he jumped in the conversation at the last moment. What he said sounded towny, but with the way the votes were, and if he were actually mafia, he would obviously know which way alakaslam would flip so he made a nice posts to get town cred.
Lone for pretty much everyone else's reasons, 2 votes on townie, activity level is the bare minimum not to get noticed D1.
Im still not convinced tofu isnt scum. He lied to get people to vote a townie. His defense of 'slam can easily just be for town cred as his two scum buddies were already on him. Mostly everyone in the thread knows our sentiment towards each other so ill move on.
Aqua i have a null read on and will need to look into his filter a lot more. He voted to kill two townies and made a big case against 'slam that i agreed with to an extent. I didnt find his call for people to claim roleblock scummy though as its standard mafia game practice to claim (learned this lesson the hard way). His interaction with onegu is the most troubling as others have pointed out. They were butting heads D1, and onegu put a vote on him, but when it looked like there could be a real chance that aqua would get enough votes, onegu switched off. And then D2, Aqua defended onegu when there was a chance onegu would flip.
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A quick aside about me. Theres no point in convincing tofu im not scum at this point as he has his mind made up. But for everyone else look at my filter. I defended xzavier because i didnt think his play made sense from a scum perspective and for meta reasons at the end of last game. I defended Gotard in the last newbie game D1 using the same logic (minus the meta) and argued that it didnt make sense for scum gotard to play that way.
For my vote on hurricane, i stand by it at the time as his filter was complete fluff and he had posted a case on a lurker which i felt was a cop out. I had since revised my read and he is town.
For the 'slam vote, i stand by my reasoning as it seemed like there had to be too many coincidences for scum to figure out who hurricane was. The odds seemed to be in Onegu's favor due to hurricane admitted (or at least implying and everyone else assuming that he visited 'slam) vs 'slam's word. Obviously i was wrong but i never saw a case on the other side that pointed out how scum figured hurricane out, i think that was the key for me.
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On June 29 2013 18:58 Onegu wrote:
So just a thought you guys have me confirmed mafia, so why not wait to lynch me doesnt it give you more info to see where my vote goes
nope you die
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On June 29 2013 12:59 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 12:55 Aquanim wrote:
If I were scum, trying to mislynch Alakaslam (who I would, as scum, know to be a townie and soon to be confirmed) would indeed be the correct play.
As town, who did not know which of the two were scum but believed that Alakaslam was scum and that Onegu would be confirmed town in that case, trying to lynch Alakaslam (who I did not know was town) is STILL the correct play. I swear.. is it just me or does Aquanim sounds like he's CHOOSING who the lynch target would be rather than actually lynching scum. It might just be me but it was like this Day1 as well. He was like, "Who should I vote, hmm... Xzavier!"
If i recall i dont think aqua had any suspicion on xzavier before his vote and it did feel retaliatory. In aqua's post where he votes for xzavier, he just posts a defense of himself and then throws a vote down at the end. It then looks like he goes back and looks at xzaviers posts to fill in the reasons for his vote. Retaliatory votes dont show alignment in my book though.
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On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim
I want your new reads. Please explain why as well. I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at: Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1. StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good. Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.
Just wanted to comment on this. I committed to lynching slam by my vote. I already posted why i thought slam would flip red more than onegu due to the number of events that needed to occur.
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@everyone, please look at the relationships between everyone, not just the individual filters.
Quick FYI: i will be traveling for the next couple of days so i will be posting from my phone.
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It's become fairly late here and my rational faculties are starting to falter, so I think I'll just post this now. I may have more to add to this when I get up in the morning, but since I don't know how long before the lynch I will be back here I figured I'd better post this now.
First, some process of elimination.
I don't believe FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge or hzflank are scum. If any of them are, I think we have probably lost already. I can't imagine they wouldn't be in a position to last-minute switch and secure one last mislynch at some point in the next three days.
Onegu is confirmed scum, and I know I'm town.
This leaves Spicydinosaur, LoneMeow and StiMaDDict as my remaining possibilities for the two extant scum. I am most confident of my scumread on Spicydinosaur.
On Spicydinosaur
A fair bit is pretty much a repeat of my thoughts on him at the end of Night One, maybe refined a little.
Spicy is playing very defensively and reactively.
At the very start of the game Spicy reacted quite strongly to Hurricane saying he was weakly suspicious of him for posting largely fluff:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=9#178
The most notable aspect of his reaction to these comments is that he doesn't seem to want to talk about himself much. Spicy could have just said "Yeah, my filter is kinda fluffy at this point, I'll be working on that"; hell, he could have just ignored it, it's not like he was seriously being accused of being scum. Instead, he becomes agressive and points out problems with their filter while barely acknowledging the weakness in his own. This is quite different to his reaction in a similar situation as a townie in the previous newbie (see the Meta section below.)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=14#272
I've already gone over the problems with Spicy's case on Tofu in my post at the end of N1, go back and read that. The whole thing about 'voting fyfy over stim to pressure' seems awfully nitpicky, too.
I'm starting to ramble and just cherrypick posts at this point, but before I stop:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=14#273
He says says LoneMeow is 'on his radar' but spends most of the post saying that LoneMeow played like this in his last game and flipped town. Not sure what the point of this post was at all, except to bring to the thread's attention that this is LoneMeow's town meta...
I know some of you don't like meta, but if you want my read - the strongest case I can bring on Spicy - I'm going to use it here. You can ignore this if you like.
+ Show Spoiler [meta] +In Les Mafia, Spicy seemed to react with far more tolerance and understanding to people being suspicious of him. However, I know from my own experience that town meta changes a LOT once you get into a normal game (rather than a newbie) and the situation under which he was pressured was quite different. I think it's a lot more interesting to look at Spicy's play in the last newbie. In particular, I'm interested in this reaction here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757¤tpage=24#465On June 06 2013 21:38 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 20:19 Skanjab1s wrote:On June 06 2013 11:00 iVLosK! wrote:
Who is the motherfucker who recognized me from OMGUS?
I will find you, mystery motherfucker. I'm the finger down your spine when all the lights are out. I'm the name on all the men's room walls. When I pout, the whole world tries to make me smile. And everyone always wants to know, who... is... that girl? Okay guys, listen up. I can read vloski like a Dr Seuss book. And he is without a doubt town. I've like, never been wrong about him. So, ##vote: SpicydinosaurFor all his posts being about game theory (lynching lurkers, etc.) and none of them having any intention of finding scum. I just did a little theory to get the game going. Wasn't much discussion going on before I went to bed. And if you are going to vote me, at least get my theory right... I said pressure lurkers. Anyways, here are some thoughts. @ Firere345 seems to be only sheeping. He agrees with Umasi's post about iVLosK! and then asks a pointless mod question about a jester. Reading the first page of the thread tells you what roles are possible in this game and jester is NOT on it. So why ask it? A true newbie to this game would probably read that first page up and down multiple times. So far he feels pretty scummy. @ Skanjab1s You throw a vote on me for theory yet your only post is just to throw a vote with nothing else. Town read for now. @ Umasi is my most worrisome read right now. He is generating some discussion but a lot of his posts are full of fluff. Taking a wait and see on him. @Yavanna strongest town read atm. Generates discussion and asks good questions. This is quite similar to the situation in the current game: Spicy has been pressured (in this case, even voted) by someone who hasn't contributed much to the thread so far (this was Skanhab1s' first post of the game, in fact). However, in this case Spicy responds calmly and acknowledges that he hasn't posted much of value so far. In fact, Spicy obtained a tentative townread on Skanjab1s, apparently based solely on the fact that Skanjab1s correctly identified he was posting fluff. I'm not going to pretend that this is some ironclad 100% proof that Spicy is scum. Perhaps he was just in a different mood this game. Who knows? It's just an indication that his mentality this game is different, and that he is more unreasonably reactive to what other people say about him than he has been in the past as a townie.
Spicy's case day 1 does not indicate to me that he'd made a serious analysis of the thread.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=24#461
Spicy's case, and where his vote ended up Day 1, was on Hurricane Sponge. His case was essentially that Hurricane Sponge had only posted fluff and blue-related stuff, which was in fact true. However, Hurricane had only actually posted during the early part of the game when that was pretty much all that anyone had posted. I don't see how "being AFK while the thread became serious" is grounds for a scumread, and that's basically what this case boiled down to.
I don't think that this case warranted a vote on Hurricane, and I certainly don't think it warranted keeping his vote on Hurricane when the latter returned to the thread and gave his reads, etc.
Spicy's read on Hurricane changed a lot, to reading him as town, when the overall thread sentiment became that Hurricane was town. There's no good reason why a town Spicy wouldn't have his mind changed by the change in Hurricane's play during the night (which definitely happened) so this isn't really alignment indicative.
Spicy hasn't pushed his vote targets as lynch targets for the rest of the thread.
In day one Spicy didn't try to get anyone to vote for Hurricane (besides through his fairly uninspired case). His case and his play was not aggressively trying to get Hurricane lynched - Compare this to the play of, say, Chromatically, who strongly pushed other people to vote for Xzavier.
Same deal for day 2. Spicy basically summed up the arguments made by others for the two wagons, voted for Alakaslam and... returned to pressuring and arguing with FirmTofu? The Onegu/Alakaslam issue was hanging over the thread, it could have gone either way, and which one of them was lynched would likely be pivotal to the outcome of the game, and Spicy decides to go do something else rather than pushing for his read to be lynched? Spicy did argue against one or two of the points raised by FirmTofu, but I get the feeling that this had more to do with sniping at FirmTofu than any actual desire to persuade him (or anyone else) to vote for Alakaslam.
Compare this to hzflank or Hurricane (who both remained kind of undecided and were seriously considering both lynches up until the deadline) or to FirmTofu and myself (who vehemently pushed our respective reads). Either of the above is the reaction of a competent town player to the day 2 situtation. Spicy's reaction was not this.
StiMaDDict and LoneMeow haven't done this either, but they've never had the thread presence to. Spicy has had the thread presence, is more likely to have the skills, and has not done so.
Spicy isn't trying to clarify his more difficult reads.
I don't think I've seen Spicy trying to get answers/reactions/whatever out of any of his null reads - if he has it's very rare in his filter. Townies typically try to get their null reads to express themselves more, or answer questions, so they can improve their reads. Spicy just keeps harassing FirmTofu.
Spicydinosaur is one of the most experienced players in this game - like me, this game is his fourth, and my impression of him as a player is that he is pretty decent. If he were town I would expect to know it by now, in the same way that I know about FT, Hurricane and hzflank. I've felt no such indications from him.
For instance: If Spicy had seriously pushed the Hurricane (day one) or Alakaslam (day two) lynches, instead of just saying enough to justify his vote and then not pushing it any further, that would be a town indication. If Spicy's case day one had been meatier than "Hurricane hasn't posted much of substance" that would be a town indication. If I'd seen a single thought from Spicy this game and thought to myself "Scum wouldn't think to say that", that would be a town indication. I'd expect at least one of these out of a town Spicy - and I've seen none.
A lot of the above applies to StiMaDDict and LoneMeow as well... but I expect more from Spicy.
The other reason I think Spicy is scum is that I only think one of LoneMeow and StiMaDDict is scum, and thus Spicy is likely scum by process of elimination. FirmTofu only asked for my strongest scumread, but if you want to know about these I don't mind saying who and why.
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@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well.
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Spicy, I asked for something very specific. I wanted your case on ONE player. Please do this. Explain why that one player is scum. Convince me of it.
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On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote:
@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well.
EBWOP: WITH YOUR REASONS.
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On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote:
@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well.
This is what we need to see next.
@LoneMeow and StiM
You both need to make a case for ONE top scum read and convince us that he is mafia. You may give us what you think the rest of the mafia team is, but the necessary input is a good case on one read.
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On June 30 2013 00:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Spicy, I asked for something very specific. I wanted your case on ONE player. Please do this. Explain why that one player is scum. Convince me of it.
You are already convinced im scum so theres no way im convincing u. My biggest scum read is on stim. Ilk post why in a separate post since Im posting from my phone.
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On June 30 2013 00:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 00:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Spicy, I asked for something very specific. I wanted your case on ONE player. Please do this. Explain why that one player is scum. Convince me of it. You are already convinced im scum so theres no way im convincing u. My biggest scum read is on stim. Ilk post why in a separate post since Im posting from my phone.
That's not true. You can convince me of anything, trust me. I look forward to your case on StiM.
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Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.
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On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.
Okay, thanks!
Hopefully, LoneMeow and StiM can pop in and give us their top scum reads as well. This is going well.
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Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet.
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EPT
