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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 82

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:02 GMT
#1621
Unless of course the scum team both Framed and Tracked Hurricane.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:03 GMT
#1622
EBWOP, I already said that

Is it good play to both Track and Frame the same person in that situation?
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 00:05 GMT
#1623
On June 30 2013 08:40 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 18:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out!

A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons
A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.)

Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story.


If Onegu was a Framer, then Onegu would not know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam. The only way that Onegu could of known is if Onegu Framed Hurricane at the same time as another scum Tracked Hurricane. How likely is that?

The only other way for Onegu to know is if Hurricane is scum. Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim by saying that he did indeed visit Alakaslam. But he did it in a non-committal way which could be seen as an attempt to leave himself an out.

It's very unlikely that mafia have that many blues. If they do, we should expect to have a blue hiding within our ranks as well. At this point, if Hurricane is mafia, we have already lost. Luckily, I think the chance of that is extremely slim.

I think the non-committal way that Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim tells us exactly what Hurricane really is. I won't spell it out for you because it is irrelevant to what we need to focus on at this juncture.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:07 GMT
#1624
I think I recall Aqua saying that Mafia usually get two blues in these newbie games.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:16 GMT
#1625
Oh I have the best conspiracy theory lined up Just 45 minutes to wait.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 30 2013 00:30 GMT
#1626
I'm glad you're vetting me, and I hope it becomes relevant (because that would mean I wasn't dead tonight).

Don't invest TOO much time into this train of thought yet, though. I'll claim if I need to, but all the evidence has been spilled out in my filter.

@hz specifically
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:31 GMT
#1627
You don't need to claim anything. I am the one who needs to claim something. But not just yet.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 30 2013 00:33 GMT
#1628
Also, Onegu doesn't have to be a Mafia Power Role. One of his scumbuddies (the real mafia tracker) could have just told Onegu what he knew to help him save himself when he felt under pressure.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:36 GMT
#1629
Yep, I am aware of that.

BTW Hurricane, we can just say it because everyone knows you claim NN. It is no secret. The thing is we cannot confirm it (no Tracker or Watcher).
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 30 2013 00:37 GMT
#1630
On June 30 2013 09:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Also, Onegu doesn't have to be a Mafia Power Role. One of his scumbuddies (the real mafia tracker) could have just told Onegu what he knew to help him save himself when he felt under pressure.

Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 30 2013 00:38 GMT
#1631
Awww... I was pretty proud of my breadcrumb.

On June 26 2013 04:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@hzflank

I just went through your filter. You're the only vote on Aqua that I can't explain. You mention yourself in the case you make on him that it's pretty weak, and you were more posting it for his benefit to refute it than as a serious post.

To be clear:
No one suspects you. Now, everyone is getting his bandwagon ready.

I'm wondering if you are still experiencing the lack of conviction on your pick, or if having people jump on board has convinced you? What is your play here?

hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:39 GMT
#1632
On June 30 2013 09:37 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 09:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Also, Onegu doesn't have to be a Mafia Power Role. One of his scumbuddies (the real mafia tracker) could have just told Onegu what he knew to help him save himself when he felt under pressure.

Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR.


Yep. Tracker or Framer.

Unless Hurricane was roleblocked. If Hurricane was roleblocked, then it might be time to claim that, but I need a minute to confirm.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 30 2013 00:39 GMT
#1633
On June 30 2013 09:37 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 09:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Also, Onegu doesn't have to be a Mafia Power Role. One of his scumbuddies (the real mafia tracker) could have just told Onegu what he knew to help him save himself when he felt under pressure.

Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR.


Oh right. You're right. In my head, visiting someone doesn't equal Power Role (but in reality, this only applies to myself).
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:43 GMT
#1634
@Hurricane: We dont even need to know if you were roleblocked. We will know when Onegu flips.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:43 GMT
#1635
Although, there is no harm in it either. SO if you want you can claim.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:44 GMT
#1636
It really does not matter
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 00:44 GMT
#1637
Hurricane, did you assemble a post of your thoughts on Spicy and Aquanim?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 30 2013 00:48 GMT
#1638
Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 30 2013 00:51 GMT
#1639
My thoughts are null on Spicy, and that Aqua is probably scum, but that's not how I want to use my (potential) final hour.

If I die, you can always dive my filter. Nothing has really changed for me except that I don't think StiM is super duper scum. But my main message is for Town to trust their reads. I think everyone here has great reasons for their reads and needs to follow them. Compromise when you think it is appropriate, but I have faith that the current townie skill level exceeds that of the mafia team.

If I die, vet your feelings for Aqua carefully. If you come to the conclusion that he is town, move on to the next guy. I think there's a very odd link between Aqua and LoneMeow that deserves looking into. You guys have done your homework on Spicy, so you probably don't need my thoughts on him, but explore relationships there too.

Go back and read my posts on Xzavier and fyfy (post-mortem). Read Chromatically's last thoughts. The dead are keys to Town victory.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 00:52 GMT
#1640
On June 30 2013 09:48 hzflank wrote:
Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though

I am too!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
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