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On June 30 2013 10:11 hzflank wrote:Conspiracy theory time. Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 09:03 hzflank wrote:
Is it good play to both Track and Frame the same person in that situation? Why yes, yes I think that it is. It makes for a great set play. If there is an NN then the scum team can potentially convince the town to mislynch their Tracker/Watcher in exchange for the Mafia Framer. Then, when he (Onegu) flips Framer, the scum team will claim that Hurricane must be scum. It is in fact likely that a Framer and Tracker both targeted Hurricane. If you had to pick a target for this play then Hurricane would have been perfect, as his very early post was about NN policy. It would be better for the scum if they knew exactly who the NN was when making this play. Remind me who it was that made a case on day 1 that the NN should claim?Once the scum team got the results of their night actions, they knew that Hurricane was was either NN, JK or tracker. Their next play would depends on whether Hurricane was NN or a good role, so they wanted to uncover this. Remind me who it was that was so eager to know if anyone was roleblocked (inc Jailed)?Onegu claim's but does not name Hurricane. They are still fishing for Hurricane's role. Alakaslam claims Tracker. Hurricane passively claims NN. I wont go into detail, but it's obvious what their next move is if Hurricane was JK. Not relevant though. Since Hurricane is NN, the scum try to secure their day 2 mis-lynch, and they succeed. The town should all be thinking that they will night kill Hurricane Night 2, because he is confirmed town. But they will not nightkill Hurricane, they will try to nightkill me. Town lynches Onegu on day 3. Onegu flips Framer. The scum make a case against Hurricane based on the fact that Onegu flipped Framer. Afterall, what are the chances that on Night one both the Framer and the tracker targetted Hurricane? If they get the day 4 mislynch on Hurricane then they win.
If mafia is sophisticated, this is a great play.
I'm guessing they're not this good at the game and that I am not long for this world. But even if I'm the shot instead of someone else, I like this theory. Along these lines (of me not thinking the mafia are this good), I think it may be a crap shoot on who takes the shot tonight, not necessarily hz. If neither me nor hz take the shot tonight, this theory still holds some water. Their plan may just not be as elaborate as hz gives them credit.
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Forgive me, late Chromatically, I have lied once again as town.
I never intended to vote StiMaDDict even though I told Spicy that I would. I actually have StiM on my town list. Not confirmed town, but town nonetheless. I told Spicy I trust him in order to manipulate the NK. If Spicy is scum, he would push for killing me in his mafia QT. By saying I trust him, he may decide not to kill me and because I am the most confirmed town thus far, this would be beneficial to us. Unfortunately, I think Spicy is still traveling so my play didn't amount to much.
My scum team list is as follows:
Onegu
SpicyDinosaur
LoneMeow
I have very little doubt that Aquanim is town. The only possibility, in my eyes, is that StiM may flip mafia instead of LoneMeow. I don't think this is particularly likely. LoneMeow is significantly more scummy than StiM at this point.
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Stim is at least 75% town.
Go through the pairings. Stim and Aqua cannot both be scum. Stim and Spicy are unlikely. That only leaves Stim and Lone.
Apart from that Stim also voted for Onegu.
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But Firm dismissed my theory so easily  Firm and I are like polar opposites.
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Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN?
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Remember that currently we have:
Aquanim accusing Spicy
Aquanim accusing LoneMeow
Spicy accusing Stim
This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely.
It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything.
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If the Nightkill goes through then it is 4-3 LYLO. They knew that we probably have a Vet or a Vig. They would not risk targeting a Vet without good reason.
Give the scum some credit. They have been schooling us all game.
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On June 30 2013 10:27 hzflank wrote:But Firm dismissed my theory so easily Firm and I are like polar opposites.
I didn't dismiss your theory at all. I just don't think you should see a conspiracy theory as the most likely course of action for the scum team and act according to the assumption that it occurred. Occam's razor!
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On June 30 2013 10:29 FirmTofu wrote:
Remember that currently we have:
Aquanim accusing Spicy
Aquanim accusing LoneMeow
Spicy accusing Stim
This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely.
It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything.
That is not relevant. Ignore who Aqua is accusing. If he were scum then he would also be accusing them.
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On June 30 2013 10:30 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 10:27 hzflank wrote:But Firm dismissed my theory so easily Firm and I are like polar opposites. I didn't dismiss your theory at all. I just don't think you should see a conspiracy theory as the most likely course of action for the scum team and act according to the assumption that it occurred. Occam's razor!
Then Hurricane should be in 30 minutes.
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Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night.
hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu.
Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie.
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On June 30 2013 10:30 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 10:29 FirmTofu wrote:
Remember that currently we have:
Aquanim accusing Spicy
Aquanim accusing LoneMeow
Spicy accusing Stim
This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely.
It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything. That is not relevant. Ignore who Aqua is accusing. If he were scum then he would also be accusing them.
I disagree. The issue of self-preservation is only relevant if you give credit to WIFOM. If you give credence to WIFOM, then you must admit that it is impossible to predict anything off of accusations. I disagree.
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Regarding Stim:
He should of been a policy lynch on day 1, but that's hindsight for you.
We, as town, are now losing horribly. We may need to take risks. I do not have a confirmed read on Stim, but if it comes to it I think that it is worth risking a town read on him.
Stim and Aqua cannot both be scum (I have said that before). It is possible that they are both town, though.
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On June 30 2013 10:29 hzflank wrote:
Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN?
Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't.
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Do the days get shorter as the amount of players in the game decreases?
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On June 30 2013 10:38 Aquanim wrote:
Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night.
hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu.
Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie.
Good point. But it would still be much better for scum to kill the NN now while they have that information. If there is a Vig shot tonight (on Onegu) then they do not have to worry about hitting a Vet (too many power roles?). Why risk wasting a night kill when they dont have to?
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As a final disclaimer:
We should take the reads of whoever dies tonight into special consideration. The mafia actively chose to kill someone because they knew that that person would probably push for a lynch against one of their teammates.
For example, if I die, you need to strongly consider lynching Spicy.
If Hurricane dies, we should revisit Aquanim's case and consider lynching him.
etc.
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On June 30 2013 10:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 10:29 hzflank wrote:
Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN? Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't.
Give them more credit. They managed to hit the cop day 1. They are thinking about their shots.
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On June 30 2013 10:46 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 10:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 30 2013 10:29 hzflank wrote:
Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN? Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't. Give them more credit. They managed to hit the cop day 1. They are thinking about their shots.
Chromatically was the obvious choice. I'm pretty sure anyone in the same situation would have picked him or me.
Consider all the scum slips that Onegu had. IT's not like mafia had a flawless game or anything. I don't think it's even justifiable to assume that a veteran is more likely to be in the game anyway.
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EPT
