Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 76

Aquanim

Australia2849 Posts

June 29 2013 02:18 GMT

#1501

On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu.

If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective.

When StiM voted Onegu, he was still two voteswitches away from being lynched, which at that time looked pretty unlikely.

It's a point in StiM's favour but not a conclusive one.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

June 29 2013 02:19 GMT

#1502

On June 29 2013 11:17 hzflank wrote:

Show nested quote +

Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town.

I think that is extremely presumptuous. Read my previous post.

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:19 GMT

#1503

If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...)

The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

June 29 2013 02:20 GMT

#1504

On June 29 2013 11:18 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

When StiM voted Onegu, he was still two voteswitches away from being lynched, which at that time looked pretty unlikely.

It's a point in StiM's favour but not a conclusive one.

This is the correct takeaway from StiM's behavior.

Aquanim

Australia2849 Posts

June 29 2013 02:20 GMT

#1505

On June 29 2013 11:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...)

The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win.

If the remaining townies can't tell that I'm town we're going to lose.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 29 2013 02:21 GMT

#1506

On June 29 2013 11:20 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

If the remaining townies can't tell that I'm town we're going to lose.

Then why did you push so hard to lynch Alakaslam? You must of played out endgame scenarios.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

June 29 2013 02:22 GMT

#1507

You need to explain to me why you think Aqua is more likely to be scum than Spicy. Spicy has been the most obvious scumbuddy of Onegu all game long. They have not butted heads once and even formed a case against me together.

I am as certain Spicy is scum as I was that Onegu was mafia an hour ago.

StiMaDDict

Korea (South)313 Posts

June 29 2013 02:22 GMT

#1508

On June 29 2013 11:16 FirmTofu wrote:

Show nested quote +

No. You don't get to be lazy. You are going to help us find out who the mafia is. If you are town, you need to stop playing terribly.

:|

Dang.. Yes sir, as you wish.

My reads?
Onegu = Scum Tracker
FirmTofu = non PM town
Aqua = null
LoneMeow = no comment + Show Spoiler +

my last game..

Hurricane = Town (NN probably)
Spicy = don't know, he was great town last game. Not getting the same feel.
hzflank = null

uhh who else is there?

Me = lazy fucking bastard that doesn't do shit..

Aquanim

Australia2849 Posts

June 29 2013 02:25 GMT

#1509

On June 29 2013 11:21 hzflank wrote:

Show nested quote +

Then why did you push so hard to lynch Alakaslam? You must of played out endgame scenarios.

Because I thought he was scum and that if we lynched Onegu we would essentially be in the position we're in now.

Look back at my arguments that Alakaslam (and Xzavier, for that matter) was scum and decide for yourself if a townie or a scum made those arguments, aped the spotlight and pushed them hard. I sincerely believed that both of them would flip scum, and hoping that you can see that is the only defence I can make for my play.

If you have any questions as to my motivations and my reasons - ask them. I have nothing to hide.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 29 2013 02:26 GMT

#1510

Aqua, why did you make your public service announcement when you did? The one asking people to claim if they had been roleblocked.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 29 2013 02:27 GMT

#1511

if someone had been roleblocked they would ask a coach and claim it. You really wanted to know whether or not someone was roleblocked, why?

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:28 GMT

#1512

Every time mafia need a whipping boy, they pull out StiM. Onegu did it early, Aqua did it late.

It doesn't matter, I'm never going to win a tunnel battle with you, Tofu. You are the tunnel king and I'm ready to just start throwing haymakers. I feel like I've said everything there is to say, the game is solved, and I'm probably going to die tonight anyway, so I don't have a vote left in this game.

The scum team is Onegu, Aqua and LoneMeow (or Spicy, I haven't looked that far ahead yet).

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:29 GMT

#1513

On June 27 2013 22:35 Aquanim wrote:

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

If you have been roleblocked (you will have been notified by a PM from the host), claim in the thread in your next post that you have been roleblocked.

This is NOT a claim that you have a role to be blocked. A player with no powers may also be blocked.

This information is far more valuable to the town than it is to mafia when revealed. If you doubt this, check any recent normal game with roleblock/jailkeeper roles.

(It just occured to me that no-one has said this yet, and perhaps there's someone who doesn't know.)

We all let this slip by. Mafia want to know if they're contending with a JK.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 29 2013 02:31 GMT

#1514

You want to know why I thought the hammer might go down on Onegu?...

Because less than an hour ago I was quizzing Stim because he mentioned roleblock claims. The next post was a 'public service announcement' from Hurricane. I thought that if Hurricane was town he realized why I asked and was leaving a breadcrumb for me. I thought that if Aqua was town he would noticed the connection.

I was waiting to see which of them switched their vote.

Aquanim

Australia2849 Posts

June 29 2013 02:31 GMT

#1515

On June 29 2013 11:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

Show nested quote +

We all let this slip by. Mafia want to know if they're contending with a JK.

<facepalm>

Claiming roleblocks is standard play in every TL mafia game. Check with your coach.

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:32 GMT

#1516

On June 24 2013 18:14 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 24 2013 17:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:

On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe.

Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on:
1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it.
2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody.
Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these.

The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot.

Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him.

I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.

On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.

The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though.

My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.

I'll drop the whole NN thing if people feel like we're getting off-track with it, but it seems like we're in a holding pattern while we wait for inactives to defend themselves.

Regarding the NN Claim: This is a part of the game I clearly don't understand the far-reaching implications of. Addressing point #2, specifically: "Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes (this)."

Is the value of preventing a mafia NN claim later in the game more than the benefit of having a real NN around to counter-claim it in the moment, catching the scum in the act? (This assumes the remaining townies have pegged the real NN as more town than the first claimant). Do not get discouraged- I would like to hear your thoughts on this subject, and it's important to emphasize that people make up their own minds on this matter as there is likely at least 1 scum trying to steer public opinion in the 'wrong' direction on this issue. You seem to have already convinced FirmTofu, and this is the kind of matter we can get Town Consensus on now in the early game.

The trouble with relying on a Nosy Neighbour counter-claiming later on is that we have no guarantee that there is even a Nosy Neighbour in the game. If there isn't, and scum fake-claims it, they get away scot-free. Sure, we could lynch an uncounterclaimed Nosy Neighbour, but enforcing a claim of it day 1 avoids considerations of "did he only claim it to avoid a lynch?". If there is an actual NN, and scum fake-claims it, then they get counter-claimed and lynched, which is OK.

Also, if there is a Nosy Neighbour and they are forced to claim at LYLO, then scum can counter-claim and leave us with a 50-50 chance (which might be a lot better than what they faced before).

Since scum would probably only claim NN if it was a choice between a fakeclaim and being lynched, if the NN claim is not available to them they're just as dead (if not more) than if they were counter-claimed anyway. Thus there is no advantage to leaving a NN claim till later in the hopes of counterclaiming a fakeclaim.

Already plotting fake-claims, and wants NN to claim early so he knows if that's an option for his team.

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:32 GMT

#1517

On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

Show nested quote +

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Makes a case on confirmed townie #1

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:33 GMT

#1518

On June 25 2013 12:54 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

I have to admit I've been having trouble understanding what Alakaslam has said so far... but I'm having difficulty seeing his thing about "spamming up the thread with bad bbcode -> scum" (link) coming from a scum player. It just feels too... enthusiastic. I get the overall impression that he is trying.

I'd love to see more from him but I'd prefer to lynch Xzavier or Onegu at this point.

(A quick note: LoneMeow did say pregame that he would be on vacation until the 27th, so I'm inclined not to lynch him today.)

Defends LoneMeow lurking awkwardly

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 29 2013 02:34 GMT

#1519

On June 29 2013 11:31 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

<facepalm>

Claiming roleblocks is standard play in every TL mafia game. Check with your coach.

Bad answer. If someone was roleblocked they would of contacted a coach if they needed to. You needed to know whether someone was roleblocked. Why?

Hurricane Sponge

868 Posts

June 29 2013 02:36 GMT

#1520

On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

- LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter
- StiMaDDict is a coinflip
- I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu.

Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote.

Bolded

Prev 1 74 75 76 77 78 99 Next

Please or register to reply.

Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 76

Completed

Ongoing

Upcoming