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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
The TARDIS refunded BC's bullet instead of wasting it. Hosts fucked up, or it was a hidden nerf/whatever. That's the simplest explanation, explains everything, and incidentally doesn't matter at all to our discussion Any other alternative makes absolutely zero sense, either austin being RBer or kita being RBer (hint: more people would have claimed RBed by now) | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
geript saying "yes and yes" doesn't tell me shit. Maybe he was answering something you posted before as well or something. Maybe he read bad and thought kita said something about it. Maybe he just deduced kita would have done it in his head but did so wrong, the hell would I know you guys are confirmed scum. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=390080#2 It contains thousands and thousands of roles. The simple fact is that an anti-town third party player that can only win with mafia has never existed. It does not exist. It will never exist. The role would be broken. A game is balanced around the assumption that every player has an equal chance of winning. A non-mafia survivor and a survivor mafia have far different win percentages. That is the simple fact. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I think we're both a little at fault here for not knowing exactly what happened. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Why?: 1)Why the hell would we care kita RBed BC on D1? We already know that if we lynch austin and kita doesn't win with town we lose, if he does win with town we win. Why would we care about him having a hidden RB or some shit? 2)Wouldn't he think geript would tell his scumbuddy about it? If kita tells geript in his convo he RBed BC, it would be stupid not to assume geript wouldn't post it in the scum QT. Therefore he would KNOW you would catch him in a lie Based on (1) and (2) it makes no sense for kita to actually have RBed BC, tell geript about it, but fake the log and call you a liar when it makes absolutely no difference at all. Oh...yeah this is assuming he's anti-town 3P. Maybe he's such an idiot he would lie about all this shit as neutral 3P as well. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On July 03 2013 04:59 kitaman27 wrote: gonzaw, give me a percentage of likelihood that you think I've a survivor vs the chances that I'm a third party survivor that can only win with mafia and has to obtain the TARDIS all at once. 85% vs 15% I'd say Or it could vary between 70% and 90% (I'm not good with percentages lol). But well, Xfire says we can 80% win if we lynch you. If that "sure you are neutral 3P" percentage falls below 80% then I would want you lynched intead. If that percentage is above 80% then I would to lynch austin instead, and if the percentage is around 80% I wouldn't give a flying fuck. I'm not really sure where that percentage is. I think it's above 80%, at least as I keep trying to convince myself you are neutral. Maybe it falls to 60% if Xfire convinces me about it, I dunno. I also don't really know wtf Xfire is saying or if he's bluffing lol. But well. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On June 26 2013 02:24 kitaman27 wrote: Anyways, I'm a Survivor. Breadcrumbed it with my first post from everyone's favorite 80's hit single: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Can't_Hold_Back My win condition is to obtain the TARDIS and survive until endgame. I managed to meet the first condition on night one so now I'm just along for the ride. I also baited the medic role that I created to protect me last night because I didn't want to claim until after the TARDIS was passed to me and getting picked off n1 would have been lame. I don't even have to hold the TARDIS at endgame, so I'll pass it off tonight as a sign of good faith. I can win with either faction (so don't shoot me plz mafia), but based on how mafia likely started that ugly bandwagon on me to save austin, I'll offer town my services free of charge  I'm open to any investigative checks if you feel like wasting your night action, but it will return third party. For the conspiracy theorists that think I planned this from the start, go away. Please note, that if I post in text that is red or green, the message is intended only for the corresponding faction. If you are not part of this faction, I trust you to ignore it. For example, You guys should totally shoot BC instead of myself tonight. Or I think mafia is going to shoot BC. Just a hunch. Good Luck! On June 26 2013 05:58 kitaman27 wrote: That's not the correct trigger phrase, but are you seriously using your day-vig on the claimed survivor? Not only is that suboptimal play, its just cruel to me, making it essentially the only way I can't win the game now that I have the TARDIS. Oh really? I shouldn't have to worry about night kills even if I'm only half active? That's exactly when the mafia team goes after you when there are no medics. lol I was breadcrumbing survivor all day. "victory is at hand" --> in reference to receiving the tardis "Victory only applies to town, or does it, I'll have to get back to you?" --> in reference to being able to win with both factions It's not like I can ask for the TARDIS with my super plan and hope the thread forgets about it for 5 cycles. I was obviously planning to claim. Show me a respected player that disagrees with my assessment that scummy players should be vig shot. Cmon now, you're just terrible. Just because I'm 3P doesn't mean that I'm completely useless. I'm not Palmar after all. I still share town's best interest at heart. So I breadcrumbed survivor in my first post, came up with an elaborate story about needing the TARDIS to obtain the 1 night medic protection, and then claimed for giggles? BC made it completely clear that he thought I was siding with thread sentiment on day one. That completely matches the actions of a survivor. You on the other hand are scum. On June 26 2013 22:45 kitaman27 wrote: I just checked and apparently the TARDIS may be used during the day. It wasn't quite clear based on the description. I can confirm what Sk8r said is true about the fact that mafia cannot activate the device twice in one cycle without the passing being randomized. I'll name the player that I will be passing the device to before the deadline, to prove that both Sk8r and myself are not scum buddies. If he flips scum like I predict, maybe we can finally end the survivor witch hunt. In other fantastic news, Sk8r's clarification has probably saved my life as I can now activate the self-protect from the TARDIS to save myself from geript's kp. I probably shouldn't be telling town this as it opens me up to a risk lynch, but hopefully you guys will take the fact that I'm not holding onto the TARDIS myself as a sign of good faith, considering how powerful it's confirmation abilities are. For the people that are saying that I need to be lynched before LYLO, I don't really understand why. You mentioned that you want to avoid a kingmaker scenario, but if you're going to lynch me, it essentially brings you one cycle closer to LYLO since it means that you can't use it on a scum lynch, the mafia team get an extra cycle of night hits, and mafia vote ratio improves. Even if we reach kingmaker, I'll still vote with town. Looking back through TL's history of survivors, nearly all of them side with town. What is the point of playing this game if there is no scum hunting objectives. It's not like I've even played anti-town this game. I've shared my suspicion of Meapak 3 different times. I've shared my suspicion of Sk8r at least five times. I still plan to share my reads on the remaining half of the players when I have time, but it seems silly that people are expecting the survivor to do all the work, while the rest of town sits around and does nothing. Why exactly is a pro-town third party role leading the lynch anyways? You guys do realize that the mafia kp is likely on the line this cycle? People are saying that this could be some elaborate plan to survive to endgame as scum, but is that really the scenario that is most likely? Am I really the player most likely to flip scum remaining in this game? That's nonsense. I mean this last quote is directly before you decide to kill dandel with the bus. You assured us that you would only play for town to prove your worth, but then you do the complete opposite all game. Why the complete shift? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 03 2013 05:04 gonzaw wrote: ...I thought we'd lost this game a long time ago, and it's been dragging on towards a barely even possible win since like...D2.I think the fact I don't want this game to go for 72 more hours may have a slight (slight mind you) influence in me wanting to lynch austin I've got some family stuff that requires traveling and me being gone for part of this evening, but I'm more than happy to shorten cycles and get my choice in quickly. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Some things of note: 1)If he is indeed survivor I think it makes sense him pushing sk8 instead of austin. If he thought sk8 was scum then he could really prove he was not scum by telling the thread who he was going to pass the TARDIS to. Once sk8 flips scum it'd be confirmed he chose who to give it to and it wasn't randomly distributed (well, there's a very very higher chance of that happening at least), so he would be confirmed not scum. 2)He said he would be using the SELF-PROTECT ability of the TARDIS, yet instead used the bus one to kill Dandel... ...yeah this doesn't sit right with me | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On July 03 2013 05:04 gonzaw wrote: I think the fact I don't want this game to go for 72 more hours may have a slight (slight mind you) influence in me wanting to lynch austin I mean if you really want to lynch austin. Sure. I honestly don't understand the way kita has been playing at all if he was just a survivor. But if you seem convinced that he is just a regular old survivor, we can lynch austin. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
There is a 100% chance that I win with chance. gonzaw thinks there is an 85% chance that I'm survivor. Let's assume there are 5,000 roles in existence (I'm taking a guess but it is in the thousands.) That means 1/5000 roles are this weird anti-town mafia winning only survivor third party role which comes out to 0.0002 percent. You never address my point that the role you are suggesting that I am has a different win percentage than other roles by definition. That is not a balanced role and doesn't make sense. In response to your most recent post, yes I said I wouldn't play anti-town, but of course I want town to see me in good light. It's not like I'm going to open up the game telling town that I'm going to push mislynch after mislynch. In the end, I was doing what I thought was best for myself by eliminating dandel. I have a history with dandel. Check themed game, the game, bastard mafia. He joins games to get me lynched and I join games to roll mafia or third party -_- | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 03 2013 05:11 kitaman27 wrote: There is a 100% chance that austin in scum. There is a 100% chance that I win with town. gonzaw thinks there is an 85% chance that I'm survivor. Let's assume there are 5,000 roles in existence (I'm taking a guess but it is in the thousands.) That means 1/5000 roles are this weird anti-town mafia winning only survivor third party role which comes out to 0.0002 percent. You never address my point that the role you are suggesting that I am has a different win percentage than other roles by definition. That is not a balanced role and doesn't make sense. In response to your most recent post, yes I said I wouldn't play anti-town, but of course I want town to see me in good light. It's not like I'm going to open up the game telling town that I'm going to push mislynch after mislynch. In the end, I was doing what I thought was best for myself by eliminating dandel. I have a history with dandel. Check themed game, the game, bastard mafia. He joins games to get me lynched and I join games to roll mafia or third party -_- EBWOP | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Do I have the knowledge about your role or items, etc to know why we'll win 80% tonight if we lynch austin? Or is it something only you know? At least I want to try and know why. If I know why I may feel better lynching kita instead if it's the safest option | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On July 03 2013 05:12 gonzaw wrote: Hmm, first something else Xfire: Do I have the knowledge about your role or items, etc to know why we'll win 80% tonight if we lynch austin? Or is it something only you know? At least I want to try and know why. If I know why I may feel better lynching kita instead if it's the safest option You know everything I do. It isn't obvious, though and requires some thought. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On July 03 2013 05:13 kitaman27 wrote: Keep in mind that coming up with a night action win percentage is impossible because you don't actually know austin's role. That's why it is 80% and not 100% lol. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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