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Let's play a game... |
k I've been reading and rereading eccs filter and I think he's town.
his early game record looks really scummy (shown by msmiths analysis.). In fact it looks so bad that scum would probably be more careful about how they were treating DrT, since all the powertowns were on drts wagon and it was pretty obvious he was going to be lynched. this is a tooscummytobescum argument but that doesn't mean its wrong.
secondly there is this quote:
On June 06 2013 15:12 Eccleston wrote:
and then you also start thinking 'well we can afford to mislynch once... maybe its better town lynches me now instead of at lylo" and thats the kind of thought spiral you get into and it makes you not want to read the thread... because you feel demotivated.
I really can't imagine writing this as scum. And I don't mean the thought is particularly pro town. It's just that scum doesn't have thoughts like this.
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You asked me to switch my vote to H3, I had to leave, I switched my vote to H3 as you asked and now you have a problem with that?
My god.
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+ Show Spoiler [data] +
Day 1 Lynch - DrT
DrTennant (8): SMcCoy, Baker1986, MSmith1, HartnellWil, A McGann, Eccleston, Hurndall3, TomB4
SMcCoy (0): Hurndall3.
TheDavison (0): Hurndall3.
Hurndall3 (1): PTroughton2, TheDavison
PTroughton2 (2): TomB4, JPertwee, DrTennant, Hurndall3
TomB4 (1): TheDavison
Day 2 Lynch - JPertwee
jpertwee (7): baker1986, smccoy, msmith1, tomb4, a mcgann, thedavison, PTroughton2, thedavison
thedavison (1): a mcgann, hartnellwill, jpertwee, hurndall3
eccleston (2): hartnellwill, jpertwee
hartnellwill (0): PTroughton2
tomb4 (1): thedavison
Day 3 Lynch - TomB4
TomB4 (5): TheDavison, Eccleston, otherH, McCoy, Trought
Eccleston (2): HartnellW, Baker
HartnellW (1): TomB4
OtherH (1): AdamMcGann
Working through this piecemeal.
Day 1:
Voting for DrT: McCoy, Baker, MSmith, HW, McGann, Eccleston, H3, Tom
Not voting for DrT: PT2, JP, DrT, Davison
Original voting bloc: McCoy McGann MSmith Baker Tom
Day 2:
Voting for JP: Baker, McCoy, MSmith, Tom, McGann, PT2, Davison
Not voting for JP: JP, HW, H3, [Eccleston with no vote]
Original voting bloc: McCoy McGann MSmith Baker Tom
Day 3:
Voting for Tom: Davison, Eccleston, H3, McCoy, PT2
Not voting for Tom: HW, Baker, Tom, McGann
Remains of the original voting bloc: McCoy
Some notes about the reasons for not joining the Tom lynch would be useful here. What I think is most important is that when you look at how the voting bloc is broken down by day three (the original, that is) the only person left from that group is McCoy. The point of this is not to put blame on McCoy but to look at who it was that voted in their place.
The new voting bloc emerging from the data seems to point to Davison, McCoy, PT2. Look again at the voters for Tom (this is a critical lynch because it met such high resistance). Without Davison, McCoy and PT2 on the Tom vote, we are left with Eccleston and H3. I believe it's very probable that at least one scum is on the Tom wagon for day three with the amount of resistance that went into the lynch. I believe one major priority should be to determine which of [Davison, Eccleston, H3, McCoy, PT2] is the likeliest to be mafia.
The second category, or those who did not vote for Tom, not including those who formed the original voting bloc would leave us with HW and McGann.
Again, this is quantitative analysis only, not having looked at the vote reasons or timings, but this here is my conclusion. I have narrowed my own list down to four possible suspects: Eccleston, H3, HW, McGann. Of the four, I feel most strongly about H3 and not strongly at all McGann. I have written some about H3 and HW, and it's probably time to for me to review my thoughts on Eccleston.
I have not taken into consideration here that two mafia could be on the Tom wagon, or that none at all could be on the wagon, because I find each scenario very unlikely. I also do not believe that I am necessarily correct in my assumption that one lies within the Tom wagon and one without. I only use this to create a smaller suspect pool and it is, of course, necessary to use more than vote count analysis to base my vote. Please let me know if you disagree with anything here or chime in with your own thoughts on the voting trends from the quantitative standpoint.
The only counter-argument I can perceive to the idea that a new bloc is emerging is that it's a solitary data point of the Tom lynch that is the crux of the issue. We need more data to truly see any quantitative trends.
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pt what a useless chunk of words
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EBWOP: McGann should not appear in the list actually, as he was part of the original voting bloc. That narrows it down to three to look at, then.
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On June 08 2013 08:38 Hurndall3 wrote:
pt what a useless chunk of words
Thank you. Your constructive analysis has been noted.
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On June 08 2013 08:24 SMcCoy wrote:
Look at Davis, he tried to find scum lately. Troughton bounced thoughts off and summarized the points I brought against Tom and tried to better understand my thought process. These two guys have shown a constructive approach to solving the game, something that you have not been displaying.
And speaking of that, Baker's fanboyism didn't help at all either, and he quit contributing when the game was critical stage. But he jumped so early on the DrT wagon and questioned him so much that I have to townread him lest I become mad for all the possibilities.
yeah sorry buddy. either your town read will be confirmed tonight with my death tonight, or I will be able to get back in the game.
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Actually I like what pt2000 did h3.
That you throw mud at him so quickly only makes me think between hw and h3 it is you that is scum.
Your vote on Dr.t was still over compensated. Especially now to confirmed town tom.
All u keep promising is you will prove you are town, and then nothing happens.
I like a h3/mcgann team.
Both seriously delayed voting Dr.t.
Mcgann is seriously uninvolved, and then constantly threatens to boycott the game if challenged.
H3 is just broken promises.
At least eccleston demotivated post felt genuine at the to,me, I just wish henwqas more present.
Same with hw, he has a bluntness u think is hard to fake. And in my opinion has a different motive to h3.
Hartnell is blunt in a transparent way.
H3 is blunt in a passive aggressive way.
I will do a filter dive on everyone after the night kill, but so far I like h3 / mcgann.
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how do you like what he did... its longwinded and utterly useless. there are no opinions and no concrete conclusions.
I know I have unfulfilled promises but I am finally getting into this game so believe me I will start doong shit
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Maybe we should also think through what Tom said, he could have had a point.
I have been more influential throughout the game than Smith, but I never truly wanted to see Eccleston dead, Smith did. So scum didn't see me as threat for two cycles.
That means that for two cycles, I have been focusing on the wrong targets for lynch, hence, it's important to go back and see what Tom did/suspected that I did not, and Eccleston is one of those suspects.
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On June 08 2013 09:02 Hurndall3 wrote:
how do you like what he did... its longwinded and utterly useless. there are no opinions and no concrete conclusions.
I know I have unfulfilled promises but I am finally getting into this game so believe me I will start doong shit
If you have been paying attention, it lines up precisely with the people who I have been accusing of being mafia, but instead you sit there with your hands on your ears playing fantabulous internet troll in a game where really, none of that shit should have been tolerated from the start. You don't even take to the heart of the matter, the part where you could potentially chime in and point out how the VCA at this stage is potentially useless due to not having enough data, or that the coincidence of the people I have been pushing towards lynch are the same set of people who got filtered out through the qualitative approach. Instead, you disregard it entirely, with your insufferable "TL;DR" attitude and I'm so absolutely tired of it and the negative atmosphere that it's creating that I believe you must be doing this to intentionally anger me and see no town motivation for that whatsoever. ZERO.
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It's important that we read through Smith's analysis during
D1:
On May 30 2013 09:03 MSmith1 wrote:
I agree with the entirety of smcc's anaysis and I think DrT could very well be scum. I actually can't find anything to add to the case; smcc covered everything in DrT's filter that I find troubling.
My other top suspicion is Eccleston. As I already said, he seemed unnecessarily hostile towards me at the start of the game. Most people are in a joyous mood after reading a town role PM so that leads me to think he is not town.
I also dislike how he refused to give any opinion of my alignment. Like, it shouldn't be too hard to read 5 posts of another player and at least hazard a guess at their alignment, but he avoided the issue. Combined with the fact that I had just called him scum, it seems like he was just afraid of me and trying to avoid me.
They're about equally suspicious in my eyes and I see no reason to derail the current wagon, so
##Vote: DrTennant
Suspicious of Eccleston
On June 02 2013 11:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Day 2
Lynch is in 48 hours.
Good Luck.
D2
On June 04 2013 11:23 MSmith1 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 11:08 SMcCoy wrote:
What do you guys think of Davison's vote switch? Would he believe that we could manage to switch in this short time as town, or did he gamble on the lynch going through anyway and looking good post-flip? I don't make anything of it. I don't think that he suddenly "looks good" post-flip nor would I think he expected to. And I don't see any harm in it as we had 6 votes on JP2 anyway. I feel like Eccleston is probably scum. I need to look more into PT2000 and TD2's contributions since their entrance. Also HW could definitely be scum, especially if Trout is as well. If he's town it's pretty irritating that he's choosing to be useless when with a bit of effort he could let us get a better read on him. I'm out for a while. Hopefully Eccleston bleeds red during the night.
On June 03 2013 06:42 MSmith1 wrote:Voting Analysis of D1Let's take a closer look at the race between DrT and Trout. Start of DrT wagon - smcc started the wagon with the original case here.
- Baker sheeps here
- MS1 (me) sheeps here
I feel pretty strongly all three of us are town. Nothing to see here. The score is 3-0 in favor of DrT. Now the wagon stalls for a bit. - AMG likes the case but wants to hold onto his vote here
- Trout votes for H3.
- H3 dismisses the case
- Eccleston thinks there is a decent chance DrT is scum here but does not cast his vote
- Davis votes H3.
Score is still 3-0. But now starts the wagon on Trout - TB4 starts it off as essentially a policy lynch here
- JP states a 70% scumread on DrT and a 100% scumread on Trout, and subsequently votes Trout.
- DrT sheeps
- H3 sheeps
Trout is now leading with 4 votes to 3. If Trout is town (likely IMO), then scum must have been thinking at this point that they could get a mislynch. Let's see at what a few critical players do over the next few hours. Ecc makes one post where he expresses hesitancy towards joining the Trout wagon, but then starts to change his mind. He then goes MIA for a few hours while other people decide the fate of the lynch. H3 unvotes after actually reading Trout's filter. He was really under no obligation at all to do this, and further supports my idea that H3 is town. With the score at 3 to 3, HW makes his first actual post of the thread and chooses to join the DrT wagon. link. He states that he would not be surprised if Trout were also scum. This would be a pretty baffling move if HW were scum with DrT, and gives me good reason to suspect that HW is town despite his lack of contributions. Think about it this way. HW could have written essentially the exact same post but voted for Trout instead of DrT, and nobody would have thought anything of it. But he didn't. He chose to vote for the scum. When the score was 3 to 3. The score is now 4 to 3. Eccleston expresses his displeasure at H3's recent play, but he has still not made up his mind about which wagon he will join. 40 minutes later, smcc demands that Eccleston make up his mind. AMG joins the DrT wagon, which obviously reflects well on him. 5 to 3. A couple hours later, Eccleston finally votes for DrT. H3 votes DrT, making the score 7-3-2, and at this point everybody has voted, and it looks clear that DrT will be the lynch. Davis votes for TB4, but I think it was pretty clear that TB4 was never going to be a serious wagon or get lynched.
conclusions/summary
smcc, Baker, MS1, H3, and AMG all look pretty towny for both votes and general posting, and are probably all town. HW has a townie-looking vote (if Trout is town). Eccleston looks pretty bad IMO. He starts off by agreeing with the DrT case, but gives himself the option to vote Trout. He never finishes his analysis but instead disappears from the thread. He pops back in to scold H3 for his unvote of Trout. Only after being prompted by smcc and after the votecount is 5 to 3 does he finally put his vote down on DrT. The extended pause in between him agreeing with the case on DrT, and actually putting his vote down, looks quite suspicious to me. It looks like he was weighing his options, hoping to be able to bury Trout, and only bussed DrT when he had to. The natural thing for a townie to do would have been finish his analysis and put down a vote, instead of disappear from the thread with everything up in the air. Davis's vote on TB4 doesn't look scum-motivated to me. I don't think Davis could have had any expectation of actually lynching TB4 yesterday, after the votecount was 7-0. It would be a pretty fucking ballsy play as scum to try to start a lynch on a townie knowing that in all likeliness your scumbuddy is about to get lynched, flip red, and make you look bad. Between the two explanations, I think it's more plausible that he actually believes in that "two wagons are better than one" theory (and therefore was genuinely trying to help town) than that he is an exceptionally ballsy scum player. JP was the second member of the Trout bandwaggon, and really helped to make it a contender. He took TB4's policy lynch idea and started throwing in scum points as well. And for someone who thought DrT was 70% scum he never consolidated onto DrT. Looks bad.
On June 03 2013 07:02 MSmith1 wrote:I'm seriously suspicious of Ecclestion. As a reminder, here are a few things I found suspicious at the start of the game: + Show Spoiler [MS1] +On May 30 2013 09:03 MSmith1 wrote:
As I already said, he seemed unnecessarily hostile towards me at the start of the game. Most people are in a joyous mood after reading a town role PM so that leads me to think he is not town.
I also dislike how he refused to give any opinion of my alignment. Like, it shouldn't be too hard to read 5 posts of another player and at least hazard a guess at their alignment, but he avoided the issue. Combined with the fact that I had just called him scum, it seems like he was just afraid of me and trying to avoid me.
I also just detailed why I think his voting behavior looks more like a scum trying to avoid bussing than a townie trying to solve the game and get scum lynched: + Show Spoiler [MS1] +On June 03 2013 06:42 MSmith1 wrote:
Eccleston looks pretty bad IMO. He starts off by agreeing with the DrT case, but gives himself the option to vote Trout. He never finishes his analysis but instead disappears from the thread. He pops back in to scold H3 for his unvote of Trout. Only after being prompted by smcc and after the votecount is 5 to 3 does he finally put his vote down on DrT.
The extended pause in between him agreeing with the case on DrT, and actually putting his vote down, looks quite suspicious to me. It looks like he was weighing his options, hoping to be able to bury Trout, and only bussed DrT when he had to. The natural thing for a townie to do would have been finish his analysis and put down a vote, instead of disappear from the thread with everything up in the air.
One final thing that I find suspicious about Eccleston is his attitude towards H3 towards the end of the day. As I detailed above, Trout was leading DrT in votes by a score of 4 to 3 when H3 decided he wasn't a fan of the Trout case. Show nested quote +On May 31 2013 04:54 Hurndall3 wrote:
ew wait trout only has 1 post?!
it kind of looks like he was trying to rp and got bored.
##unvote
Show nested quote +On May 31 2013 05:06 Eccleston wrote:
What the fuck Hurndall, are you psychotic or just very confused? Eccleston definitely seems to be put in a bad mood by H3 unvoting Trout. Eccleston asks if H3 is "psychotic or confused", which would both imply "bad" townie. Then a couple hours late Eccleston posts this which I suspect was him giving up for the day and resigning to bus DrT: Show nested quote +On May 31 2013 07:31 Eccleston wrote:On May 31 2013 05:55 SMcCoy wrote:
@ Eccleston
I need to know who you want to lynch, will you join the DrT wagon? Is there any specific conclusion you draw from your musings about PT2's motivations to write that post? Yes, I agree with the case on DrT and I am on board with lynching him. ##Vote: DrTennantI have my doubts about Hurndall too. I think there's a good chance of him flipping scum. I think the conclusion you can draw from it is that his play is anti-town (which was already pretty apparent). Looking back, my second post on PT2 was pretty useless. I just started thinking about what his motivations might be and wrote the post, thinking I was onto something. I just overanalyzed it, and my first post on him was more sound than the second one. I will post more in the morning. He finally commits to voting DrT, but states a suspicion on H3, looking forward to the next day. It seems slightly inconsistent to me that he went from calling H3 psychotic/confused to calling him malicious scum. Oh yea. Also he hasn't posted in like forever or been very active generally + Show Spoiler +I know I'm not really one to talk which are a couple of other small pieces of evidence against him.
Out to dinner. Be back in a bit. Will probably vote JP because JP lynch seems to have more support than Eccleston lynch. The more I think about it, the more I don't like a Davison lynch -- will explain more later.
Smith has been constantly targeted, and constantly had Eccleston as scumread since D1. He posted barely nothing during N1 that could have warranted his death over me..Except that I suspected JP and Tom, and he suspected Eccleston.
Just by NK analysis we should lynch Eccleston, as Tom pointed out during D3.
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Yeah it's probably the best approach when one is in the dark like this. Try to understand what scum wanted to achieve with their kills. The only guy who wanted to use NK's to justify the Eccleston lynch has been Tom, and he flipped town, so we can discard scum trying to frame Eccleston with their NKs. They had a genuine interest in getting rid of Smith.
And who has been defending Eccleston ? McGann. Who stopped posting after being so active in early game, when DrT was in the crossfire? Eccleston and McGann.
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On June 08 2013 08:30 PTroughton2 wrote:
I have not taken into consideration here that two mafia could be on the Tom wagon, or that none at all could be on the wagon, because I find each scenario very unlikely. I also do not believe that I am necessarily correct in my assumption that one lies within the Tom wagon and one without. I only use this to create a smaller suspect pool and it is, of course, necessary to use more than vote count analysis to base my vote.
If both scenarios that aren't "one scum on Tom and one off Tom" are very unlikely and you don't believe completely in your read, what else is there to believe? It's a weird way of wording your confidence.
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Ironclad case you have there. I'm scum because I went to sleep for 14 hours.
I volunteer to be lynched first because I'm sick of reading this game.
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On June 08 2013 09:20 SMcCoy wrote:It's important that we read through Smith's analysis during
D1:Show nested quote +On May 30 2013 09:03 MSmith1 wrote:
I agree with the entirety of smcc's anaysis and I think DrT could very well be scum. I actually can't find anything to add to the case; smcc covered everything in DrT's filter that I find troubling.
My other top suspicion is Eccleston. As I already said, he seemed unnecessarily hostile towards me at the start of the game. Most people are in a joyous mood after reading a town role PM so that leads me to think he is not town.
I also dislike how he refused to give any opinion of my alignment. Like, it shouldn't be too hard to read 5 posts of another player and at least hazard a guess at their alignment, but he avoided the issue. Combined with the fact that I had just called him scum, it seems like he was just afraid of me and trying to avoid me.
They're about equally suspicious in my eyes and I see no reason to derail the current wagon, so
##Vote: DrTennant Suspicious of Eccleston Show nested quote +On June 02 2013 11:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Day 2
Lynch is in 48 hours.
Good Luck.
D2Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 11:23 MSmith1 wrote:On June 04 2013 11:08 SMcCoy wrote:
What do you guys think of Davison's vote switch? Would he believe that we could manage to switch in this short time as town, or did he gamble on the lynch going through anyway and looking good post-flip? I don't make anything of it. I don't think that he suddenly "looks good" post-flip nor would I think he expected to. And I don't see any harm in it as we had 6 votes on JP2 anyway. I feel like Eccleston is probably scum. I need to look more into PT2000 and TD2's contributions since their entrance. Also HW could definitely be scum, especially if Trout is as well. If he's town it's pretty irritating that he's choosing to be useless when with a bit of effort he could let us get a better read on him. I'm out for a while. Hopefully Eccleston bleeds red during the night. Show nested quote +On June 03 2013 06:42 MSmith1 wrote:Voting Analysis of D1Let's take a closer look at the race between DrT and Trout. Start of DrT wagon - smcc started the wagon with the original case here.
- Baker sheeps here
- MS1 (me) sheeps here
I feel pretty strongly all three of us are town. Nothing to see here. The score is 3-0 in favor of DrT. Now the wagon stalls for a bit. - AMG likes the case but wants to hold onto his vote here
- Trout votes for H3.
- H3 dismisses the case
- Eccleston thinks there is a decent chance DrT is scum here but does not cast his vote
- Davis votes H3.
Score is still 3-0. But now starts the wagon on Trout - TB4 starts it off as essentially a policy lynch here
- JP states a 70% scumread on DrT and a 100% scumread on Trout, and subsequently votes Trout.
- DrT sheeps
- H3 sheeps
Trout is now leading with 4 votes to 3. If Trout is town (likely IMO), then scum must have been thinking at this point that they could get a mislynch. Let's see at what a few critical players do over the next few hours. Ecc makes one post where he expresses hesitancy towards joining the Trout wagon, but then starts to change his mind. He then goes MIA for a few hours while other people decide the fate of the lynch. H3 unvotes after actually reading Trout's filter. He was really under no obligation at all to do this, and further supports my idea that H3 is town. With the score at 3 to 3, HW makes his first actual post of the thread and chooses to join the DrT wagon. link. He states that he would not be surprised if Trout were also scum. This would be a pretty baffling move if HW were scum with DrT, and gives me good reason to suspect that HW is town despite his lack of contributions. Think about it this way. HW could have written essentially the exact same post but voted for Trout instead of DrT, and nobody would have thought anything of it. But he didn't. He chose to vote for the scum. When the score was 3 to 3. The score is now 4 to 3. Eccleston expresses his displeasure at H3's recent play, but he has still not made up his mind about which wagon he will join. 40 minutes later, smcc demands that Eccleston make up his mind. AMG joins the DrT wagon, which obviously reflects well on him. 5 to 3. A couple hours later, Eccleston finally votes for DrT. H3 votes DrT, making the score 7-3-2, and at this point everybody has voted, and it looks clear that DrT will be the lynch. Davis votes for TB4, but I think it was pretty clear that TB4 was never going to be a serious wagon or get lynched.
conclusions/summary
smcc, Baker, MS1, H3, and AMG all look pretty towny for both votes and general posting, and are probably all town. HW has a townie-looking vote (if Trout is town). Eccleston looks pretty bad IMO. He starts off by agreeing with the DrT case, but gives himself the option to vote Trout. He never finishes his analysis but instead disappears from the thread. He pops back in to scold H3 for his unvote of Trout. Only after being prompted by smcc and after the votecount is 5 to 3 does he finally put his vote down on DrT. The extended pause in between him agreeing with the case on DrT, and actually putting his vote down, looks quite suspicious to me. It looks like he was weighing his options, hoping to be able to bury Trout, and only bussed DrT when he had to. The natural thing for a townie to do would have been finish his analysis and put down a vote, instead of disappear from the thread with everything up in the air. Davis's vote on TB4 doesn't look scum-motivated to me. I don't think Davis could have had any expectation of actually lynching TB4 yesterday, after the votecount was 7-0. It would be a pretty fucking ballsy play as scum to try to start a lynch on a townie knowing that in all likeliness your scumbuddy is about to get lynched, flip red, and make you look bad. Between the two explanations, I think it's more plausible that he actually believes in that "two wagons are better than one" theory (and therefore was genuinely trying to help town) than that he is an exceptionally ballsy scum player. JP was the second member of the Trout bandwaggon, and really helped to make it a contender. He took TB4's policy lynch idea and started throwing in scum points as well. And for someone who thought DrT was 70% scum he never consolidated onto DrT. Looks bad. Show nested quote +On June 03 2013 07:02 MSmith1 wrote:I'm seriously suspicious of Ecclestion. As a reminder, here are a few things I found suspicious at the start of the game: + Show Spoiler [MS1] +On May 30 2013 09:03 MSmith1 wrote:
As I already said, he seemed unnecessarily hostile towards me at the start of the game. Most people are in a joyous mood after reading a town role PM so that leads me to think he is not town.
I also dislike how he refused to give any opinion of my alignment. Like, it shouldn't be too hard to read 5 posts of another player and at least hazard a guess at their alignment, but he avoided the issue. Combined with the fact that I had just called him scum, it seems like he was just afraid of me and trying to avoid me.
I also just detailed why I think his voting behavior looks more like a scum trying to avoid bussing than a townie trying to solve the game and get scum lynched: + Show Spoiler [MS1] +On June 03 2013 06:42 MSmith1 wrote:
Eccleston looks pretty bad IMO. He starts off by agreeing with the DrT case, but gives himself the option to vote Trout. He never finishes his analysis but instead disappears from the thread. He pops back in to scold H3 for his unvote of Trout. Only after being prompted by smcc and after the votecount is 5 to 3 does he finally put his vote down on DrT.
The extended pause in between him agreeing with the case on DrT, and actually putting his vote down, looks quite suspicious to me. It looks like he was weighing his options, hoping to be able to bury Trout, and only bussed DrT when he had to. The natural thing for a townie to do would have been finish his analysis and put down a vote, instead of disappear from the thread with everything up in the air.
One final thing that I find suspicious about Eccleston is his attitude towards H3 towards the end of the day. As I detailed above, Trout was leading DrT in votes by a score of 4 to 3 when H3 decided he wasn't a fan of the Trout case. On May 31 2013 04:54 Hurndall3 wrote:
ew wait trout only has 1 post?!
it kind of looks like he was trying to rp and got bored.
##unvote
On May 31 2013 05:06 Eccleston wrote:
What the fuck Hurndall, are you psychotic or just very confused? Eccleston definitely seems to be put in a bad mood by H3 unvoting Trout. Eccleston asks if H3 is "psychotic or confused", which would both imply "bad" townie. Then a couple hours late Eccleston posts this which I suspect was him giving up for the day and resigning to bus DrT: On May 31 2013 07:31 Eccleston wrote:On May 31 2013 05:55 SMcCoy wrote:
@ Eccleston
I need to know who you want to lynch, will you join the DrT wagon? Is there any specific conclusion you draw from your musings about PT2's motivations to write that post? Yes, I agree with the case on DrT and I am on board with lynching him. ##Vote: DrTennantI have my doubts about Hurndall too. I think there's a good chance of him flipping scum. I think the conclusion you can draw from it is that his play is anti-town (which was already pretty apparent). Looking back, my second post on PT2 was pretty useless. I just started thinking about what his motivations might be and wrote the post, thinking I was onto something. I just overanalyzed it, and my first post on him was more sound than the second one. I will post more in the morning. He finally commits to voting DrT, but states a suspicion on H3, looking forward to the next day. It seems slightly inconsistent to me that he went from calling H3 psychotic/confused to calling him malicious scum. Oh yea. Also he hasn't posted in like forever or been very active generally + Show Spoiler +I know I'm not really one to talk which are a couple of other small pieces of evidence against him.
Out to dinner. Be back in a bit. Will probably vote JP because JP lynch seems to have more support than Eccleston lynch. The more I think about it, the more I don't like a Davison lynch -- will explain more later. Smith has been constantly targeted, and constantly had Eccleston as scumread since D1. He posted barely nothing during N1 that could have warranted his death over me..Except that I suspected JP and Tom, and he suspected Eccleston. Just by NK analysis we should lynch Eccleston, as Tom pointed out during D3.
Hey yeah we could do this! Let's lynch Eccleston once and for all
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On June 08 2013 09:30 HartnellWill wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 08:30 PTroughton2 wrote:
I have not taken into consideration here that two mafia could be on the Tom wagon, or that none at all could be on the wagon, because I find each scenario very unlikely. I also do not believe that I am necessarily correct in my assumption that one lies within the Tom wagon and one without. I only use this to create a smaller suspect pool and it is, of course, necessary to use more than vote count analysis to base my vote. If both scenarios that aren't "one scum on Tom and one off Tom" are very unlikely and you don't believe completely in your read, what else is there to believe? It's a weird way of wording your confidence.
I presented a manner of looking at the game which you are welcomed to provide the counter-point to [i.e. that you believe two scum voted for]. Furthermore, with so few data points, casting a wider net by looking at both sides of the wagon is increasing the potential size of the pool of suspects from which to reduce.
The purpose was twofold: to establish what I thought to be the the "town voting bloc" based on the early wagons and to remove those from the list of suspects to focus on for now. Using this information I distilled who I believe the mafia could be on the scum wagon. I'm not fully confident that no mafia were on Tom's wagon, but I have admitted that is it most likely, given the resistance to the lynch, that one or more scum were on that wagon. My conclusion potentially supports both mafia voting for Tom, but not both being off. There are two candidates from Tom's wagon based on this approach. I will be frank and say that if no mafia voted for Tom we'd be in really bad shape for solving the game.
Do you agree that mafia were more likely on the Tom wagon than not?
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@smcc
look at my most recent post on ecc
There are things he says that look VERY town, even if his play isn't very pro-town.
MSmith's vote analysis makes Ecc look very bad, but there's one problem with MSmith's argument:
It assumes that PT is town. If PT is scum along with DrT, then suddenly his entire analysis is irrelevant.
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On June 08 2013 09:43 PTroughton2 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 09:30 HartnellWill wrote:On June 08 2013 08:30 PTroughton2 wrote:
I have not taken into consideration here that two mafia could be on the Tom wagon, or that none at all could be on the wagon, because I find each scenario very unlikely. I also do not believe that I am necessarily correct in my assumption that one lies within the Tom wagon and one without. I only use this to create a smaller suspect pool and it is, of course, necessary to use more than vote count analysis to base my vote. If both scenarios that aren't "one scum on Tom and one off Tom" are very unlikely and you don't believe completely in your read, what else is there to believe? It's a weird way of wording your confidence. I presented a manner of looking at the game which you are welcomed to provide the counter-point to [i.e. that you believe two scum voted for]. Furthermore, with so few data points, casting a wider net by looking at both sides of the wagon is increasing the potential size of the pool of suspects from which to reduce. The purpose was twofold: to establish what I thought to be the the "town voting bloc" based on the early wagons and to remove those from the list of suspects to focus on for now. Using this information I distilled who I believe the mafia could be on the scum wagon. I'm not fully confident that no mafia were on Tom's wagon, but I have admitted that is it most likely, given the resistance to the lynch, that one or more scum were on that wagon. My conclusion potentially supports both mafia voting for Tom, but not both being off. There are two candidates from Tom's wagon based on this approach. I will be frank and say that if no mafia voted for Tom we'd be in really bad shape for solving the game. Do you agree that mafia were more likely on the Tom wagon than not?
EBWOP: Using this information I distilled who I believe the mafia could be on the *Tom wagon.
Eccleston is implicated by both the overall vote analysis and the night kill analysis provided by McCoy, and thus should definitely be discussed as a lynch candidate today.
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On June 08 2013 09:43 PTroughton2 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 09:30 HartnellWill wrote:On June 08 2013 08:30 PTroughton2 wrote:
I have not taken into consideration here that two mafia could be on the Tom wagon, or that none at all could be on the wagon, because I find each scenario very unlikely. I also do not believe that I am necessarily correct in my assumption that one lies within the Tom wagon and one without. I only use this to create a smaller suspect pool and it is, of course, necessary to use more than vote count analysis to base my vote. If both scenarios that aren't "one scum on Tom and one off Tom" are very unlikely and you don't believe completely in your read, what else is there to believe? It's a weird way of wording your confidence. I presented a manner of looking at the game which you are welcomed to provide the counter-point to [i.e. that you believe two scum voted for]. Furthermore, with so few data points, casting a wider net by looking at both sides of the wagon is increasing the potential size of the pool of suspects from which to reduce. The purpose was twofold: to establish what I thought to be the the "town voting bloc" based on the early wagons and to remove those from the list of suspects to focus on for now. Using this information I distilled who I believe the mafia could be on the scum wagon. I'm not fully confident that no mafia were on Tom's wagon, but I have admitted that is it most likely, given the resistance to the lynch, that one or more scum were on that wagon. My conclusion potentially supports both mafia voting for Tom, but not both being off. There are two candidates from Tom's wagon based on this approach. I will be frank and say that if no mafia voted for Tom we'd be in really bad shape for solving the game. Do you agree that mafia were more likely on the Tom wagon than not?
I do agree with that last point. There are certainly some suspicious people who I won't claim to find them scum just yet, but certainly deserve scrutiny. Also Eccleston is on there so yes there has to be one mafia on TomB4. Him.
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EPT
