Ego Mini Mafia - Page 17

On April 12 2013 01:02 DarthPunk wrote:


Paranoia.

On April 12 2013 01:09 WaveofShadow wrote:

I've only been lynched once, and it was right at the end of LX. Does that mean I'm a good player too?

On April 12 2013 01:29 wherebugsgo wrote:
I disagree still.

There is nothing that indicates a scumteam of sciberbia/DP/whoever would necessarily have been better than what we had.

You know why? Cause people like Axle, who play very differently dependent on alignment, are unlikely to get lynched as town.

It's all just conjecture, saying that you would have been able to balance the game better on that basis without considering those 3 vets. The argument is based on seeing the results, but there is no empirical evidence that it actually holds in practice (also there's no evidence that the reason the scumteam lost was because of player imbalance either!)

And to top it all off there's no measure of skill that says the scumteam you proposed is better than the one that was in this game, or that the change would have kept town level the same.

E: this was @ DP and whomever else was talking about the teams

On April 12 2013 01:58 syllogism wrote:
While you are doing arbitrary math, can you factor in the advantage town gets from knowing that teams aren't RNGed

On April 12 2013 02:04 WaveofShadow wrote:

Yes but the point I'm making is, there is no REAL mathematical way of estimating skill like this. Any numbers you come up with or what a win or loss does to this arbitrary number is still just that, arbitrary.

As a player plays more and more games in a team setting, elo becomes more accurate supposedly, but with a sample size like TL Mafia, there is absolutely no way a skill rating like elo would come close to being an accurate representation. There are WAY too many mitigating factors such as the hosts, style of game (mini/normal/themed/whatever), roles available, who is playing in said game, etc. Theoretically this would matter less if people could play hundreds of games but that doesn't happen here.

On April 12 2013 02:55 wherebugsgo wrote:
talking about Elo like this is more evidence that your entire mentality is results-based.

winrate is not everything in a game like this, because there are so many factors that go into a game. You can't compare a win in one game to a win in another; it's the same reason people fuck up meta all the time. Games are not strictly comparable one to one.

There are plenty of worse players who get carried and plenty of better players who get brought down. Yes, winrates may correlate with skill, but not nearly as strongly in other team games, because the sample sizes are so small. Average games played is probably less than 10. Good luck getting anything statistically significant out of samples that small.

(for the record; I have 7 mafia games. You think you're gonna get anything useful out of those from an objective standpoint?)