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On April 09 2013 03:23 Rainbows wrote: If you can lay down your reasons why you think it's a fakeclaim, I will gladly roflstomp them into the ground.
This is incessant.
Why are you still alive?
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On April 09 2013 03:29 Obzy wrote: @Warent - assume rainbows is town. scum will specifically not kill him, because he's a lynch candidate. assume rainbows is scum. he lives because we have no other vigilante.
either way, all it means is we don't have a vig that isn't rainbows.
Why is he a Lynch candidate?
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On April 09 2013 03:42 Obzy wrote:all it means was a poor word choice - i mean to say, it basically proves that we don't have a vig that isn't rainbows, and other than that, it shouldn't be a surprise at all that he survived. you just posted again and it sort of blows my mind: Show nested quote +On April 09 2013 03:35 Warent wrote:On April 09 2013 03:29 Obzy wrote: @Warent - assume rainbows is town. scum will specifically not kill him, because he's a lynch candidate. assume rainbows is scum. he lives because we have no other vigilante.
either way, all it means is we don't have a vig that isn't rainbows. Why is he a Lynch candidate? Because people have expressed interest in lynching him!? If you meant to imply that I wanted to lynch him - incorrect, sorry for the misunderstanding. If you meant to imply "Wow, who ever would have thought of lynching him?" - are you even reading lol >.> I take it that you, then, have zero objection to thinking Rainbows is town and have zero intention of lynching him yourself, or you never would've asked that question. However, before deciding to look at the voters on Jampi, whom I believe are at least reasonably townie and I would rather vote Ravens, you had indicated Rainbows, me, and Fish as potential scum, directly after the mislynch. So now you both do not understand why Rainbows would still be alive, AND the idea of him being lynched today had apparently not crossed your mind. In end-game I'll apologize for this tone if you are town, but honestly, I don't see a way that you could have logically changed your mind on Rainbows, secretly, to a point that it makes you ask why he would be lynched. Please convince me otherwise.
Why do you find it likely that I would be able to convince people to lynch Rain today when I failed yesterday? Isn't a lynch candidate someone likely to be lynched?
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@Obzy And I'm equally perplexed at how you think it's so obvious and clear that he would be a lynch target today after all he did - claiming, surviving, and what not. And yes - I agree - the only hard fact we have is: If there is a vigi - that's Rainbow and if Rain is vigi mafia has a role blocker.
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On April 09 2013 05:23 Obzy wrote: The problem is that Moloch, Kirby, nobodywonder, Jarjar, and Fish aren't posting (or at least - not enough). Ravens and Warent are posting and I'm getting scum vibes, but they could just be _relatively_ scummy compared to Rain and Smancer. To further identify if they are actually scum, I would like to be able to continue gathering thoughts on the other five.
Would be very very good with some more activity, especially from nobodywonder and jarjar, problem with lynching lurkers now is that we can't afford more miss-lynches, and well feels like it's basically a shot in the dark when we don't have enough information.
In any case I'm sticking to my previous post were I point out that our main focus should be on the four who voted for jampi, especially curious about your reads on each others (those of you who haven't provided that yet).
Good night.
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On April 09 2013 22:02 JarJarDrinks wrote:So jkirbys defense was pretty weak just like I expected. And looking @ Ravens last few posts, I think he may also be scum and trying to distance himself from kirbs. Here's his response to my case against kirby: Show nested quote +On April 09 2013 06:14 TheRavensName wrote: Well, sense I wasn't asked for an opinion on this I will state it: Its enough to make me doubt my good read I had on JRK, but I feel if the main basis for this is Why did he vote for Jampi over You, the same lgoci can be applied to rainbows when he didn't vote for NW when he thought for sure he was scum because "He didn't feel like it.", enough that I will leave my vote on rainbows... which I should probably finalize. ##Vote: Rainbows He's trying to make it seem like he isn't defending kirby by saying I'm making him doubt his read while @ the same time saying that I don't really have a good argument against him because of my main point. And he's trying to apply that same argument to rainbows even though it's not really similiar @ all. And kirbys defense of jampi while earlier naming him a suspect is the strongest point in my case against him, it's certainly not the only one. Warent looks pretty bad to me too. On day 1 he tries to twist rainbows words and (mafia 101) makes a big deal out nothing: Show nested quote +On April 06 2013 02:15 Warent wrote:On April 06 2013 01:49 Rainbows wrote:On April 06 2013 01:24 Warent wrote:A bunch of generic pro-town things being advocated. He provides a (bad) summary of events in the thread and... that's it. I was not providing a summary of events in the thread - I was summing up your actions. Perhaps it wasn't clear enough, no worries, hopefully this will make things more clear. ##Vote RainbowAs far as policies goes, this is my opinion: we should not lynch people based on whims, misinterpretations or lies. Rainbows third, so called, case against Saraf is completely based on either an obvious misinterpretation or a lie. Saraf: even if the spammiest asshole is just some poor well-meaning fattie (who should have applied the litmus test "does this post help town?")
Rainbow: I think we should all rally around lynching Saraf, because he called me town and expressed interest in lynching someone he called probably town. Rainbow: Saraf seems to know I'm town, because he refers to me as such and tells me how I should be playing. Saraf has never called Rainbow town. Even if does NOT equal probably town! Rainbow must know this. I don't think this is a misinterpretation, I think this is Rainbow trying to create something out of nothing. Most likely reason the obvious one - he is scum. And he's not helping himself when he refuses to explain his own action but rather continue to accuse others. You were summing up the thread because I was the only one doing things. Saraf literally said: EVEN IF YOU'RE TOWN YOU SHOULD BE LYNCHED. Your defence is lawlzy, please try harder. He did. And you are trying to make Even if you are into probably are. These are two very different statements. What reasons do you have for twisting the meaning like that, unless you are trying to promote a miss-lynch? On April 06 2013 08:23 Warent wrote:On April 06 2013 08:01 Fishgle wrote: jarjar needs to stop lurking and explain his vote. i also want to see TheRavensName, jampidampi, and Moloch post more so I can get better reads on them.
However, the more i look at Warent's entrance though, the scummier it looks. He gets mad at Rainbows for questioning him and then casts an emotional vote, despite not having any evidence. I think Rainbows was just throwing out votes to create discussion. Warent however, seems dead set on lynching rainbows, and argues semantics.
Now, there's an interesting back'n'forth between rainbow and warent. The most interesting thing about it is that while rainbows is defending his vote, warent instead is defending saraf. What I think happened is that rainbows blindfired, got a lucky hit on a skinny (saraf), and then warent came in to try to defend his skinny exercise buddy. It doesn't help that Saraf is so anti-"spam". Obzy has posted just as much as rainbows, and i don't see anyone complaining that he's "spamming". Discussion is useful. What are we supposed to do, chit chat about nothing while the skinnys kill us off? True, some of rainbow's posts have been less substantial than i would have liked, but he got some discussion going. I don't think that's anything to get lynched over. I enter with a suspicion and I provided a case. As far as evidence go: I caught rainbow trying to to push towards a lynch based on a misinterpretation that has been pointed out to him several times - yet he argues that his interpretation is the correct one. Why are you ignoring what I wrote in that post? Cute theory. Need to sleep now. On April 06 2013 17:00 Warent wrote:Obzy, Before we forget about this: My initial concern was not about his first post. It was the lie (?) in this post that caught my attention: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359¤tpage=8#148 . A lie/misinterpretation you seem to be completely okey with? Even though you later point at the same post at Sarafs and say it yourself - it even wasn't about Rain + Show Spoiler +Obzy: I don't know what to think of Raven. He hasn't really posted enough - only his last two posts have content I care about; Why does he think Saraf called Rain an asshole and an idiot? "even if the spammiest asshole is just some poor well-meaning fattie" - how is that implying Rain, unless it's taken for granted that Rain is a spammy asshole? >_>;;; Also, how did Rain interpret it to be calling him out? - -; w/e. I would like to see Raven post more. Raven, are you implying that nobodywonder is town (haven't read him yet, will form an opinion momentarily) with this post? Up until know you've been careful, but now you've decided TRN is a good lynch target - why? Any other reason than Meta stuff? You think Rains case against him is good, care to elaborate some? On April 06 2013 17:02 Warent wrote: Clarification: the same post Rain was misinterpreting of Sarafs and you seem to interpret it like most others. Man is he harping on that one post that rainbows made. And what better way to try to solidify that case? Kill Saraf and have him flip green.
Back from work, was in a meeting the whole day, couldn't do much. Sadly need to leave soon again but I'll back in a few hours.
I'll just say that I'm extremely curious how you get this into me twisting Rains words when that what was I was calling Rain out for.
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On April 10 2013 00:52 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2013 00:21 Warent wrote: Back from work, was in a meeting the whole day, couldn't do much. Sadly need to leave soon again but I'll back in a few hours.
I'll just say that I'm extremely curious how you get this into me twisting Rains words when that what was I was calling Rain out for. Rainbow was right in that Saraf was basically saying that "we should lynch you whether you are scum or not". And it did seem like Saraf thought Rainbows was town even if he said the words "Even if you are" as opposed to "Probably are". That's just nitpicking words and harping on semantics.
It amazes me that you chooses to bring that bullshit up again.
For reference I put the original post in spoilers. Anyone capable of reading knows I'm right about this, shouldn't really be any need to discuss this further but you did just rose highly on my scum-read meter.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 05 2013 11:57 Saraf wrote:glhf Can we vote for a no-lynch in this game, or must votes be placed on individuals?Show nested quote +On April 05 2013 09:28 Rainbows wrote: Okay enough guys.
##Unvote
Anyone who's here right now I want to give me their opinions on a statement.
--- I don't want to talk about policy. You can policy me this or policy me that, or raise me a lynch-all-liar policy, but I don't want to hear it. Your policy is your own. Enact it when you see fit, if at all. Don't spew it in the thread incessantly to act like you're contributing or it's the 'must-do' in a mafia game.
If you want to override this and go on with it, fine with me. Whatever you feel is best. Not talking policy Day 1 is bullshit. Scum know who scum are but we don't, and the only way we catch scum is by making them fuck up. Even if the policy ends up being "there is no policy", the debate drives conversation and conversation is the only reliable way we have of rooting out scum and eliminating them. Problems arise for town when scum derails the conversation, so here's some day 1 policy to chew on: In the absence of really strong reads, lynch the spammiest asshole who shits up the thread the most. Spamming the thread is a scum tactic to distract and disrupt town; even if the spammiest asshole is just some poor well-meaning fattie (who should have applied the litmus test "does this post help town?"), at the very least in Day 2 the thread will be less shit up, and it'll be easier to find scum without him shitting up the thread.
Reading through Kirbys filter he comes out very townie to me. The only "weird" post were he provided reads on everyone - but I believe that was a response to us asking him to elaborate further on his early "mystery" read. Other than that most of his actions makes sense from my perspective.
I'll re-read the case against Moloch and take a closer look at his filter.
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On April 10 2013 03:38 nobodywonder wrote: Hi, nobodywonder here, I'll be here for about 30-45 minutes before I head to class. I'll be available from in about 3hrs then and get ready for the ultimate lynch then. So now I'll be rereading and taking questions.
First thing, Warent, how did you read jrkirby as town? What kind of townie is he then?
I read Kirby as town mostly because I disagree that his defense towards Jampi was faked - He claims to read Jampi as town at the time, and when I re-read the filters at least I agree that jarjar was a much better lynch than Jampi.
Here he makes decent argument against a lurker with two or three horrible posts here - No reason for scum to prefer to lynch lurkers vs active players unless the cases are solid. + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359¤tpage=19#370
The post below also makes sense to me.
Kirby:
It's not really the relevance of the questions. He had reasonable suspicion because there existed questions that had not been answered. It's enough excuse for him to make a case against rainbows. And just making a case against someone isn't a sure sign of scum. He made a reasonable case with poor persuasion. That's not a lynchable thing.
Anyway I don't think he is scum.
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Right now I think scum is trying to get us to misslynch each others I've got town reads on both Kirby and Moloch. I've liked Molochs reasoning from day one and there isn't really any case against him.
I know many of you have town reads on Rain now - but I do want to take a closer look at his claim and see what could have motivated it from a scum or town perspective.
Please read and consider this. Motives for the claim from a scum perspective: Rainbow was set to be Lynched at the time, had he not claimed - he would probably go. If he is scum; fake claiming at that point is one of his best moves. These are the different outcomes:
a) Claiming fails, he get lynched: No difference. b) There is a real vigi in the game who counter claims - it words against words - rain get lynched and mafia knows who the real Vigilant are. c) There is a real vigi in the game who counter claims: The counter claimer gets lynched - the real vigil is gone d) The lynched is stopped, someone else (town) gets lynched and the real vigi shots rainbow. Shot now used on someone who would have been lynched had he not faked claimed. Town loses one, scum loses one, and one power role loses its power. e) The lynched is stopped, there is no vigi in the game. Rain comes out looking like the good guy.
So why not claim for example medic? On the surface claiming vigi seems to be one of the stupidest fake claims "because he will just get shot" and is thus more likely to be believed. But when looked at more closely it is motivated.
Very good motives to fake claim vigi if you are set to be lynched. None of a-e would be worse for scum than a straight up scum lynch.
Motives for the claim from a Town perspective:
a) Claiming might stop the lynch
Obviously a better town mindset would be to try to provide solid arguments instead, and some has pointed out that this was a stupid (not very motivated) claim from a town perspective.
I've been trying to get some answers to why Rain wasn't killed by the Mafia, assuming the claim was real. The answers provided are. 1. There is also a roleblocker among the mafia so it is safe to keep him alive, and 2. Mafia would push for a mis-lynch on Rain on day two so we keep him alive.
If you believe in the town theory you must believe in both 1 and 2. The flaws in number 2 is: Why kill Saraf then? He just wrote a major case against Rainbow before he was shot - he would most likely vote for a lynch towards him and perhaps even push it. And there are plenty of other good targets to try to get a mislynch on (!) If you are mafia and someone claims Vigi and if that someone is on the right track - you shot him. And also, why take the risk that we would lynch the roleblocker? Otherwise they will just effectively "lock" their role blocker onto one player instead of trying to block the medic for example. The are no good motives for scum to keep Rainbow alive - if the claim was real - does not fit
Summing this up: - There are good motives for a mafia on the way towards a lynch to fake claim. There is nothing to lose and it's not a gamble. - There are no good motives for a Mafia to keep Rain alive if the claim was real.
##Vote Rainbows
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Kirby:
At first I thought he was stupid, so I read that as scum, but after he claimed I realized that either he was going to die or he was just the stupidest vigi there was. Now he's just a terrible vigi. Just want to point out what TRN said earlier about Rain, he was voted MVP in his two previous game - I don't think he is stupid - I think he is a decent actor.
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And per usual, when things are getting interesting I have to go to bed.
At least READ and try to understand my analysis on the different perspectives on the claim above and I'll be happy.
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On April 10 2013 06:56 Moloch wrote: Warent, I've been thinking along the same lines of you, but I still feel there's a better chance he's telling the truth than not.
Your Mafia perspective is spot on. There was basically no downside to claiming at the point he was at.
Your town perspective should include a #3 - The mafia assumed the medic would protect Rainbows, so they didn't want to waste their hit on him, and they knew they could roleblock him so he couldn't do anything anyway.
Because of this newly added possibility, your claim that there is no good reason for Mafia to keep Rainbows alive is false, which weakens your argument by a lot.
#3 Is a good point, And I've been considering it. But medic wouldn't want to save Rain from the REAL vigilant trying to kill him.
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Good night, hoping to see some red in the lynch tomorrow. Consider my case.
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Who defended jirky? Me and Moloch. Who pushed for not changing from another obvious mislynched: Obzy. Obzy if you disagree that fakeclaiming from a scumperspective was a good move you don't even have a clue what logic looks like. You keep repeating yourself "I feel scummy" but my posts "looks pro town".
Can't do any indepth analysis from work, that'll have to wait. When I come back home I'll compare this lynch with yesterdays and see if we can draw some hard fatcs about that. I'm really tired of you guys baseing reads and lynches on guts instead of looking at possible motives.
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Obzy:
As such, he KNOWS there is a doctor. Saying that there can't be three blues is absolute suicide if he fakeclaimed. He would KNOW there's another blue.
No one knows how many power roles there are, I believe they are distributed randomly. I don't know, you don't and Rainbow don't. there is no way he could have known if there is a doc or not. His "gogo another blueclaim challenge" is yet again not motivated from a town perspective. But from a scum perspective? Hell yes it is motivated.
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Hey Smancer, very glad that you've decided to look at players motives. I've just read through your filter and lately you've based many of your conclusions on Rainbows blue claim being true. Take a look at this post: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359¤tpage=34#666 a few posts later Moloch points out a flaw and I answer to that as well . And keep in mind that the number of blue roles are unknown to all players.
But perhaps it's time to focus more on likely scum-teams rather than individual scums.
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On April 11 2013 00:48 Obzy wrote:Another wonderfully active night. Outstanding. I guess Warent is posting. + Show Spoiler +I really, really hope I get shot tonight. If I don't, I might land a protect on somebody and the scumteam will require an additional mislynch to win, so they had better gift me this. Warent, entirely hypothetically, what if in my -imaginary- -luck shot- -guess- scumteam prediction you were replaced with Rainbows? And the number of blue roles, yes, is unknown to all players, but I feel it's a safe assumption that it's either 2 or 3, and we could all have safely assumed that at the beginning of the game.
Then all of a sudden your scum read would be very similar to mine.
And I like the idea of providing scum-team reads at this point in time instead of just looking at individual scums.
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I said earlier that I should come back and try to see If I could find something useful in the lynches. I was hoping I should get some more information from this than I did. I'll post it and maybe you guys see something I don't. In any case, keeping track of who voted for whom should be a given.
Day one lynch: TheRavensname (1) Rainbows Rainbows (2) Warent, TheRavensName jrkirby (2) JarJarDrinks, nobodywonder jampidampi (4) Smancer, Obzy, Fishgle, Moloch JarJarDrinks (3) Saraf, jrkirby, jampidampi
Day two lynch: TheRavensname (2) Rainbows, Moloch Rainbows (2) TheRavensName, Warent jrkirby (5) JarJarDrinks, nobodywonder, Fishgle, Obzy, Smancer JarJarDrinks (1) jrkirby
#Fact 1 TheRavensName and Warent has been voting on the same lynch twice Fishgle, Obzy and Smancer - || - JarJarDrinks and nobodywonder - || -
My assumption from day one: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359¤tpage=26#509 see this post for some reasoning At least one bad guy among: Smancer, Obzy, Fishgle, Moloch
Same assumption is most likely valid today - doesn't really change anything though.
We also know that JarJarDrinks and nobodywonder have been voting on misslynches two days in a row. Obviously voting for a misslynch doesn't necessarily tell us much except that they have been wrong twice.
Another fact that jrkirby pointed out before he was crushed: The three who voted JarJarDrinks on day one: Saraf, jrkirby, jampidampi are all gone.
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I mean, so did Smancer, Fish, and myself. Assuming your assumption is correct; Smancer obviously is my pick for the scum on jampi's wagon.
Yeah, I should probably have mentioned that, just thought it was more obvious since you three had been voting for the lynch both times.
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Ready for some insane theories?
Obzy just claimed medic, before I go to bed I want to look at motives for doing so.
We don't know the number of power roles in the game.
Claiming from a scum perspective: These are the outcomes:
a) There is no medic in the game - no one counter claim - situation has improved drastically.
b) There is a medic in the game - real medic counter claims during the night. Random townie gets killed - there will be word against word the next day. And real medic might get lynched next day. (If real medic gets lynched situation will eventually be 4 against 3 - without a medic. If the fake claimer has lots of town creds. this is the likely scenario)
c) There is a real medic in the game- real medic does not counter claim during the night. IF the real medic gets NKed - fake claimer will be lynched next day. Otherwise real medic counterclaims the next day see b.
d) There is a real medic in the game who doesn't counterclaim. See a)
e) No one dies. Fake medic claims to have saved fake vigi. Everyone believes them and we are dead.
Why e? How long can they argue that mafia has good reasons for keeping a claimed vigi alive? Obzy has hinted multiple times that he will die tonight implying he is not going to save himself, who do you think he will "save"? I think its a setup for the "save".
Holy shit, that's a good plan, I'm impressed! Or did I miss some possible outcomes? (obviously me pointing this out drastically reduces the likelihood for this to happen, yet if I had waited i could either be dead or it would sound much more like a conspiracy theory)
Claiming from the town perspective?
Most already had town reads on Obzy. He said it himself few posts later.
Rain:
You know if anyone else is blue, they can claim because 3 blues in a game is super rare. cop/doc/vig is stupid op.
if you're a doc/jk you can claim and then lynch me? never even thougt of thaat.
This is the explanation given Obzy:
If Rainbows was town, he would know that he was a proper vigilante, and there are two confirmed blues. Saying that there can't be three is flat-out-incorrect, obviously, and he wouldn't say it unless he believed it.
If Rainbows was scum, he would know by now there IS no proper vigilante, and there is no roleblocker - as there were no roleblocks claimed, or roleblockings claimed. So there is no roleblocker. As such, he KNOWS there is a doctor. Saying that there can't be three blues is absolute suicide if he fakeclaimed. He would KNOW there's another blue. So I feel like it's a fact that Rainbows is blue, and he only made that statement because he was so certain there were only two blues, as it was his past experience.
We don't know the number of power roles, I'm lost. I don't see any good motives for a doc to claim during the night. Obzys' own explanation boils down to "I don't want to play anymore". Well... I don't buy it and it might even be borderline against the rules - play to win. If the claim is true .
This claim is motivated from a scum perspective, I'm actually quit surprised myself by this conclusion. Slight gamble should they kill the real medic, but if the intention is to not kill anyone and claim a save on rainbow - shit makes sense.
Me pointing this out might change the course of action do - tomorrow we will be wiser. And perhaps I'm just very good at conspiracy theories.
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