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On May 03 2013 23:25 WaveofShadow wrote:
I don't think Artanis is mafia, though what happened to the big push on BC?
As for whether to lynch Ace or no, each side makes halfway decent points.
I don't necessarily agree with 'freeing up our JK' since out of like 10-11 townies you have to choose the right one? We're going to lose someone tonight either way so I'm not sure what the strength of that point is. I also disagree with Sharant's 'second vigi' theory which I've already explained but I'm still not voting Ace.
This day is going absolutely nowhere and the longer it takes the more I'm likely to do something fucking stupid and change my vote to someting I don't truly want just for a flip. Ugh.
Also Palmar, regarding the last page or so. I'm not an idiot; you're being deliberately lazy and unhelpful by not assisting us with our current dilemmas. I'm not saying your read isn't useful for when you flip but there is a time and place, and rather than help us decide our lynch for the day, you post a read on BM that no one needs right now. Why not post a read like that at night if you're so afraid you're going to die? Don't you dare try to bully me or others into agreeing with you.
I already said what I want to do now.
Lynch BC (because he's scummy) or Ace (because RBs and KPs almost confirm him 3p).
And I don't really care when you think it's fit for me to do x or y, I'm not trying to bully anyone into anything, you're the one trying that.
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By the way Artanis looks pretty town based on how he backtracked on the Ace thing.
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On May 03 2013 23:27 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 23:23 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 23:20 TheRavensName wrote:
Also, you really think we have a jailer, a medic, 2 masons , and 3 cops? Thats crazy. No, our one protection role is wasted chillling on ace which means Mafia knows that they can kill whoever they want. Quite frankly, no, I'm not convinced WE have 2 masons. I'm convinced there ARE 2 masons. Nor am I convinced we have 3 cops, but that's discussion for tomorrow. Wait a minute. So according to this you think there's still a scum mason and vigi, and Palmar is lying therefore he must be one of those or 3p? AND you think Hopeless is mafia? Where does Ace fit into this? Your final 3 must be hopeless/palmar/ace then? I don't think this is discussion for tomorrow because clearly today isn't decided yet.
I don't understand your line of thought. Because I am not convinced of something, I must assume everything is false? No, I'm working through the most likely outcomes.
Yes, Palmar is a discussion for another day and I will not speak more of it.
I've never disagreed with Ace being third party, I've said often that I think it's the most likely, but is otherwise solvable without his death. To consider it confirmed, you are either making a stupid assumption, or you have information that only the mafia has.
I am not convinced of TRN's alignment, he could be town or scum mason. It is possible that scum have a vigi. It is possible Palmar is lying, a paranoid cop being one of the safest claims possible.
I do not have a final 3. There are a few people who have done a decent job of making themselves look townie, but beyond them everyone is suspect. That's what feels so frustrating at this point. Artanis could be defending either BC or Hopeless with his actions, but I'd rather lynch Hopeless today because of BC's connection to Palmar, and I want more time before I tackle that mess.
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You guys are complete idiots if you still think I can be scum.
I want to lynch Ace today to free up the JK. Ace is confirmed 3P by virtue of the actions AND the fact that he's given up since people have discussed him as 3P. If he was town would he just let everyone accuse him of being 3P and sit back? No, he wouldn't.
I want to lynch BC after Ace dies, I just want the town JK free to protect people that are town and you're an idiot if you think Ace isn't 3P.
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On May 03 2013 23:37 Sharrant wrote:
Artanis could be defending BC
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Q4Z0Zua.jpg)
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On May 03 2013 23:07 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 22:36 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Guys. Seriously, there isn't a second scum vigi because I seriously doubt scum would have the balls to save their vigi for D5, and they've already had 3 strong power roles flip including a vigi. The setup would be pretty rediculously scum favoured if there was another scum vigi when town gets none.
Ace is confirmed 3rd party. Lynching him frees up our JK, which means he can protect townies rather than stop Ace from firing which means we get potentially more days and forces scum to guess who won't get protected so they can't shoot who they want to without risk.
Lynch Ace
I'm just going to afk now until Ace is lynched, unless someone actually brings up something I've missed which I highly doubt. How can you be so bad at reading? How many times have I explained it now. If scum have a second vigi they fired it on night 2. It would look exactly like Ace was the serial poisoner. HOW MANY TIMES HAS THIS BEEN SAID? Honestly, it's so frustrating. Lynching Ace right now gives the mafia an extra kill that we only have a chance to block, this isn't including things like a jail keeper may jail a doctor if we have one which means we potentially waste a lynch AND gain nothing for it.I want to lynch Hopeless, and then if he flips red, you hang next. That should be all the mafia, then Ace can die. If Hopeless isn't mafia, I'll look into everyone else again, but you're defending him by pushing the lynch off of him, giving mafia an extra night's worth of kills. That's why I ninja voted Hopeless. If you're not mafia, Hopeless, I'm sorry. But Artanis is doing a good job of making you look like you are.
I can't blame you entirely because I believed it was better to hold off on Ace at first, but it is the most beneficial to town to kill him off ASAP. Get your shit together.
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On May 03 2013 23:37 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 23:27 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 03 2013 23:23 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 23:20 TheRavensName wrote:
Also, you really think we have a jailer, a medic, 2 masons , and 3 cops? Thats crazy. No, our one protection role is wasted chillling on ace which means Mafia knows that they can kill whoever they want. Quite frankly, no, I'm not convinced WE have 2 masons. I'm convinced there ARE 2 masons. Nor am I convinced we have 3 cops, but that's discussion for tomorrow. Wait a minute. So according to this you think there's still a scum mason and vigi, and Palmar is lying therefore he must be one of those or 3p? AND you think Hopeless is mafia? Where does Ace fit into this? Your final 3 must be hopeless/palmar/ace then? I don't think this is discussion for tomorrow because clearly today isn't decided yet. I don't understand your line of thought. Because I am not convinced of something, I must assume everything is false? No, I'm working through the most likely outcomes. Yes, Palmar is a discussion for another day and I will not speak more of it. I've never disagreed with Ace being third party, I've said often that I think it's the most likely, but is otherwise solvable without his death. To consider it confirmed, you are either making a stupid assumption, or you have information that only the mafia has. I am not convinced of TRN's alignment, he could be town or scum mason. It is possible that scum have a vigi. It is possible Palmar is lying, a paranoid cop being one of the safest claims possible. I do not have a final 3. There are a few people who have done a decent job of making themselves look townie, but beyond them everyone is suspect. That's what feels so frustrating at this point. Artanis could be defending either BC or Hopeless with his actions, but I'd rather lynch Hopeless today because of BC's connection to Palmar, and I want more time before I tackle that mess.
It's also 'possible' that there are 2 mafia left and 3 3rd party roles, but at what point do you actually make a point in shifting your views to what is 'most likely' rather than considering every option all of the time to no end?
Completely off-topic thought: GiygaS where the fuck are you? I had actually begun to seriously consider you town but now I see you were just responding to the pressure I had put on you at the time and you've fucked off again.
You scum?
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We could end this right now if the people voting for outliers just made up their minds; clearly yamato is not going down today, and I doubt BC is either.
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Looking at it objectively. We're 5 lynches from LYLO and in those 5 lynches we must hit at least 1 scum (assuming ace is sp). If at any point the jk gets nk'd we must instantly lynch ace to keep LYLO timing on our side. Planning worst case it seems much better to get ace out of the way since he will tie up a lynch regardless but unless the jk makes 2 successful saves it doesn't affect our lynch count anyway. I'm surprised this push on ace happened without really mapping it out.
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On May 03 2013 23:58 Stutters695 wrote:
Looking at it objectively. We're 5 lynches from LYLO and in those 5 lynches we must hit at least 1 scum (assuming ace is sp). If at any point the jk gets nk'd we must instantly lynch ace to keep LYLO timing on our side. Planning worst case it seems much better to get ace out of the way since he will tie up a lynch regardless but unless the jk makes 2 successful saves it doesn't affect our lynch count anyway. I'm surprised this push on ace happened without really mapping it out.
If you kill Ace now, the JK has the potential to protect townies 100% the rest of the game. Leaving Ace alive GUARANTEES town deaths (2nd doc/jk notwithstanding)
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And that's a completely unrealistic expectation. The odds are incredibly against that happening. 1 save does nothing except put us at mylo with 4. It isn't some huge advantage.
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Can't quote on phone
@wos
Three third party only possible with at least 2 survivors. Don't care about survivors for the most part. Only late game.
Okay, let's play this game. lynching ace is sub optimal play because:
Jailer cannot protect himself and you've already stated doctor is unlikely. Mafia has 1/townie chance to randomly kill the jailer. That's without taking into account that yamato claims to know who it is.if he is right (not sure who he suspects or if he's mafia) then jailer dies tonight. If they don't hit jailer, jailer has 1/player base-1 to stop the shot not with standing his ability to determine who the mafia is or guess their might kill.
Likely scenario: ace is , Lynched, jailer is shot. Day completely wasted, in same spot you are now, but with one less blue, still a potential but less likely 1 less green, and just as many mafia, but less lynches.
The worst case scenario of letting ace live is your plans most likely scenario.
This was addressed to everyone saying lynch ace.
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Okay... so if Jailer dies tonight, why do you want to leave the SP alive Sharrant? if theres even a chace the jailer can die, we need to lynch ace because if we don't were stuck with an extra night kill we could have avoided. Its a fucking huge risk to leave alive because the jailer dieing actually cost us 2 instead of one, plus then we haveto lynch ace anyways.
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On May 04 2013 00:13 Stutters695 wrote:
And that's a completely unrealistic expectation. The odds are incredibly against that happening. 1 save does nothing except put us at mylo with 4. It isn't some huge advantage.
That's just false. One extra confirmed townie to guide town is worth a lot, even if it doesn't help you with a mislynch. It also forces scum to go for targets they don't actually want to go after or risk that their shot is blocked.
Okay, let's play this game. lynching ace is sub optimal play because:
Jailer cannot protect himself and you've already stated doctor is unlikely. Mafia has 1/townie chance to randomly kill the jailer. That's without taking into account that yamato claims to know who it is.if he is right (not sure who he suspects or if he's mafia) then jailer dies tonight. If they don't hit jailer, jailer has 1/player base-1 to stop the shot not with standing his ability to determine who the mafia is or guess their might kill.
Likely scenario: ace is , Lynched, jailer is shot. Day completely wasted, in same spot you are now, but with one less blue, still a potential but less likely 1 less green, and just as many mafia, but less lynches.
The worst case scenario of letting ace live is your plans most likely scenario.
This was addressed to everyone saying lynch ace.
No, because you're assuming scum will hit a random townie. Scum doesn't want to hit a random townie, they want to hit confirmed townies or strong townies. Having a jailer alive to potentially block these targets hurts scum a lot, especially if the jailer doesn't have the greatest town presence/isn't considered that townie. Also, if you're right and the jailer gets shot, we need to lynch Ace anyway so we mind as well do it now.
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Tell me sharrant, what makes it so probable ace is town to you and not 3p to you? When do you propose we deal with ace?
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Role block should go through regardless of jailers death, unless set up is modified in a way I don't know. If jailer dies, lynch ace. No deaths will occur from ace unless jk spends a night not rbing him, or we leave him alive for a night after jk dies.
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I would actually say letting Ace live helps the Mafia more then the town, if nothing else because hes an easy lynch to push just for being him, and the fact that the jailer can't move to block while stuck on him as well as if ace manages to get a shot off, there is a much higher chance of hitting a townie then scum. All in all, leaving ace alive hurts us more then helps.
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On May 04 2013 00:30 Sharrant wrote:
Role block should go through regardless of jailers death, unless set up is modified in a way I don't know. If jailer dies, lynch ace. No deaths will occur from ace unless jk spends a night not rbing him, or we leave him alive for a night after jk dies.
But if you want to lynch him as soon as the jailer is dead anyways, why not just do it now and let the jailer try to block? Thers no reason to leave him alive to kill him later if were just going to literally kill him later.
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Stutters, its in every damn thing I've said. I'm fairly sure he's third party. Read any quote. But possible he's town, and you can leave the lynch until jailer death, 2 mafia deaths, or a day
or two before lylo
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Don't lynch Ace:
Town JK has to block Ace until he dies. We might lynch scum today, we might not. There will be continued talk about whether we should lynch Ace or not which will interrupt discussion. Once the JK dies, we have to kill Ace anyway. If it happens early, killing Ace today would've been better since we would've had one night in which the JK can protect us. If it happens late, then the JK wasted many days blocking Ace that he could've used to protect townies.
Lynch Ace
Town JK is freed and can protect townies. Scum don't know who they can hit. If they know who the JK is, they'll kill him. If they don't, then they need to take into account that players that are near confirmed town will be likely to be protected, so they might have to evade to shadier targets or take the risk. Town discussion is fully about scumhunting again, which scum would not want. JK is used to its fullest potential.
Clearly lynching ace is superior.
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EPT
