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I was not roleblocked and took no hits.
Bugs flipping town is obviously a shock, but the good news is that we weren't left with nothing overnight.
Remember when Adam claimed Vigilante?
On December 12 2012 09:47 Adam4167 wrote:
Alright I was hoping that I could talk my way out of this lynch without having to claim, but apparently that does not seem to be possible.
I am a Vigilante.
Give me a chance to prove i'm town tonight.
Pssssttt....there's emphasis in there.
"...tonight."
Adam's claim heavily implies the existence of a Scum Vigilante.
That being said.
On December 13 2012 13:33 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2012 13:25 jaybrundage wrote:
Also Clarity why aren't you still going for me as your main scum read.
What changed your mind. Do you still think im scum?
So for spamming thread btw guys : / You might be. I'm more convinced on a scum BL though, bugs having a townread on you also makes me hesitate. Don't be ridiculous btw, I'm not scum and there's like a 1000 reasons why. I shot the guy who was probably going to get lynched tomorrow and who I agreed with looked like scum.
This post is extremely suspicious to me for a couple of reasons.
1) That's possibly the most atrocious justification for shooting someone ever. If he was probably going to be lynched tomorrow, then WHY IN THE FUCK WOULD YOU SHOOT HIM? It doesn't make any sense, because if most everyone can agree that he looks scummy then we can lynch him. It just doesn't make sense from a townie perspective. From a scum perspective however, it removes Bugs' ability to defend himself and possibly avoid getting lynched.
2) The second part of the statement reads like scum trying to fit in. "...and who I agreed with looked like scum". If you're town, the assumption is that if you shoot someone, it's because you think they look like scum. It feels like over-justifying his shot.
##Vote: Clarity_nl
The fact that there has been no counterclaim holds no relevance - if we have a town vig who didn't shoot, there'd be no incentive to claim because it's not a guaranteed trade as there could also be more than one town vig - and the implication of Adam's claim coupled with Clarity's A) shitty target and B) suspicious justification is more than enough to lynch Clarity today. I think he's scum.
I wish Bugs had told us who he jailed. Any crumb-hunters out there wanna take a stroll through his filter?
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VE you're a goddamn idiot if you actually think that's a fakeclaim.
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I think it's a real claim. I think Clarity is a Scum Vigilante.
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Dear christ. I posted on it earlier:
On December 13 2012 10:23 Hapahauli wrote:
Clarity's vigi claim makes no sense from a scum perspective.
1) If he's the mafia vigi, he risks a counter-claim from a possible town vigi
2) Why would mafia vigi bugs, when they could waste a lynch on him today?
Pretty sure Clarity's town.
If Clarity made a last-minute claim to save his skin, MAAAAAYBE I could get behind you. But the fact is, he claimed in a situation where he had everything to lose and nothing to gain.
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On December 13 2012 17:52 Hapahauli wrote:Also Djo, can you explain your thought process behind this? Show nested quote +On December 12 2012 08:06 Djodref wrote:
Anyone up for a counter bandwagon on jay ?
##Unvote
##Vote Jay Show nested quote +On December 12 2012 08:43 Djodref wrote:
I'll switch back my vote to Tunkeg if you guys change your mind last minute for the time I'm taking a shower !
##Unvote
##Vote Tunkeg Show nested quote +On December 12 2012 09:23 Djodref wrote:
And, seriously guys, you still prefer to lynch Adam to jay after Adam's latest post ?
Counter wagon ! GO GO GO !
##Unvote
##Vote jay
@ Hapa
At first, I would like to say that I believed that the deadline was at 9am KST. I didn't feel sure about Adam being scum and I liked better (far better) a Jay's lynch (or a Tunkeg lynch). So I've tried to start a counter bandwagon without any success.
I didn't work and I had to go to take a shower before going to work. The majority was reached but I was still hoping for a jay or a Tunkeg lynch. Tunkeg could have happened so I put back my vote on Tunkeg.
After my shower, I've realized that the deadline was at 10am KST.
On December 12 2012 09:06 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2012 08:57 debears wrote:On December 12 2012 08:43 Djodref wrote:
I'll switch back my vote to Tunkeg if you guys change your mind last minute for the time I'm taking a shower !
##Unvote
##Vote Tunkeg Djo you really don't want to lynch Adam huh? It's not that, I just really don't think he is our best lynch today. I thought the deadline was at 9am Korea also. I've got to go to work now. I hope you guys are right about Adam...
So I thought I was still having some time to start a counter bandwagon on jay. After that, I really had to go to work. I was checking the thread from my phone while driving and I've seen Adam's claim and Munk-E coming back. You can see an attempt to vote Munk-E in the voting thread 
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On December 13 2012 18:05 VisceraEyes wrote:
I think it's a real claim. I think Clarity is a Scum Vigilante.
@ VE
What do you think about Clarity antecedents ?
For me, his filter looks town, regardless of this claim. Plus the mafia do no shoot potential mislynches.
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I missed that in the hullabaloo.
1) That means nothing because this is a semi-closed setup. There could be more than one town vigi, so the counterclaim thing is not relevant. There's little risk in a scum Vigi claiming a shot he ACTUALLY took because we have no way of knowing if they're scum or town.
2) Why would Mafia vigi one of the stronger town players? So he can't defend himself and avoid the lynch? Maybe turn it around on one of them? Scum removing a vet from the game in a NON LYNCH situation is actually extremely strong.
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On December 13 2012 18:13 VisceraEyes wrote:
I missed that in the hullabaloo.
1) That means nothing because this is a semi-closed setup. There could be more than one town vigi, so the counterclaim thing is not relevant. There's little risk in a scum Vigi claiming a shot he ACTUALLY took because we have no way of knowing if they're scum or town.
2) Why would Mafia vigi one of the stronger town players? So he can't defend himself and avoid the lynch? Maybe turn it around on one of them? Scum removing a vet from the game in a NON LYNCH situation is actually extremely strong.
1) If you think there are likely two vigi's, good for you. However I really doubt that's the case, and gambling on there possibly being 2 vigis in the setup is not something mafia want to do, much less when Clarity did so.
2) So what exactly makes the alternative not likely - that a town Clarity shot the top scumread of virtually everyone in the thread. Shooting WBG was a fine play given the suspicions of the thread.
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On December 13 2012 12:43 Hapahauli wrote:
Also, I'm really not getting any scummy vibes from Jay. Other than Adam's vote on him, there's some stuff like deliberately antagonizing Palmar (YOUR vs. YOU'RE), which seems fairly townie in context. Palmar didn't like Jay's posting, and Jay turns around and starts poking Palmar with a stick. I think scum would have more of an inclination to hide and appear diplomatic rather than antagonizing your accuser.
When did this happen?
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On December 13 2012 18:19 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2012 12:43 Hapahauli wrote:
Also, I'm really not getting any scummy vibes from Jay. Other than Adam's vote on him, there's some stuff like deliberately antagonizing Palmar (YOUR vs. YOU'RE), which seems fairly townie in context. Palmar didn't like Jay's posting, and Jay turns around and starts poking Palmar with a stick. I think scum would have more of an inclination to hide and appear diplomatic rather than antagonizing your accuser. When did this happen?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=25#489
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On December 13 2012 18:13 VisceraEyes wrote:
I missed that in the hullabaloo.
1) That means nothing because this is a semi-closed setup. There could be more than one town vigi, so the counterclaim thing is not relevant. There's little risk in a scum Vigi claiming a shot he ACTUALLY took because we have no way of knowing if they're scum or town.
2) Why would Mafia vigi one of the stronger town players? So he can't defend himself and avoid the lynch? Maybe turn it around on one of them? Scum removing a vet from the game in a NON LYNCH situation is actually extremely strong.
@ VE
Your vote on Clarity is going to be acceptable for me only is you present a super strong case against him, independently of him claiming. If you can show me than Clarity was scum before that, maybe I'm going to believe that you are not faking being stupid.
I'll fight against a Clarity lynch today.
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1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming.
2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears?
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On December 13 2012 18:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming.
2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears?
@ VE
Stop speculating, show us that Clarity is scum outside this claim.
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On December 13 2012 18:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming.
2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears?
1) Why would it be bad play for a vig to counterclaim here? Closed setup or not, I really doubt there's more than 1 in a 16 man setup.
2) It doesn't matter who the guy is - the top scumread of the thread got shot on N1. How is that not completely normal? Plus Clarity's a new guy - it's not like he knows who Bugs is. Hell even I've never played in a game with Bugs.
As for the debears thing, I've given it some thought. The way I see it, there are two possibilities:
a) scum only shot at debears. I find this unlikely, given the risk of leaving a hypothetically town marv+Palmar alive
b) scum vigi'd debears and shot at marv. This is what I'm thinking happened.
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On December 13 2012 18:26 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2012 18:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming.
2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears? @ VEStop speculating, show us that Clarity is scum outside this claim.
Dude that's a response to Hapa don't tell me what to do. I'll tell you what I think of Clarity's play when I look at his filter. Right now I'm combing through ~Daypost stuff to see what else I missed, then I'll go look at his filter.
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Lemme point out some stuff in the game:
Clarity has been pushing me by asking people for their opinion on his supposedly good case. Then, he only gives additional information when asked (Look at Bluelightz meta). Then events on the night correspond with the best chances for me getting lynched, debears the person that opposed my lynch the most is supposedly shot. Lastly, has he actually responded to my response? does he give a fuck about me than just "Oh he's scum, ignore everything. My case has to be right"
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On December 13 2012 18:29 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2012 18:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming.
2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears? 1) Why would it be bad play for a vig to counterclaim here? Closed setup or not, I really doubt there's more than 1 in a 16 man setup. 2) It doesn't matter who the guy is - the top scumread of the thread got shot on N1. How is that not completely normal? Plus Clarity's a new guy - it's not like he knows who Bugs is. Hell even I've never played in a game with Bugs. As for the debears thing, I've given it some thought. The way I see it, there are two possibilities: a) scum only shot at debears. I find this unlikely, given the risk of leaving a hypothetically town marv+Palmar alive b) scum vigi'd debears and shot at marv. This is what I'm thinking happened.
As for your chance B, who would be that scum vigi?
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On December 13 2012 18:32 Bluelightz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2012 18:29 Hapahauli wrote:On December 13 2012 18:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming.
2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears? 1) Why would it be bad play for a vig to counterclaim here? Closed setup or not, I really doubt there's more than 1 in a 16 man setup. 2) It doesn't matter who the guy is - the top scumread of the thread got shot on N1. How is that not completely normal? Plus Clarity's a new guy - it's not like he knows who Bugs is. Hell even I've never played in a game with Bugs. As for the debears thing, I've given it some thought. The way I see it, there are two possibilities: a) scum only shot at debears. I find this unlikely, given the risk of leaving a hypothetically town marv+Palmar alive b) scum vigi'd debears and shot at marv. This is what I'm thinking happened. As for your chance B, who would be that scum vigi?
How the hell should I know? That's just the best way I can make sense of the night actions.
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Day 2 Vote Count
Bluelightz (3): Hapahauli, Clarity_nl, grush57
Clarity_nl (2): jaybrundage, VisceraEyes
Tunkeg (1): Djodref
7 votes needed to lynch. No one currently set to be lynched. Deadline in 39.5 hours at 01:00 GMT (+00:00).
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So WBG was a jk this game. So my entire scum or stupid analysis on him was wrong. He turened out to be just stupid.
Also anyone doubting clarity's claim is stupid. There is no reason at all for a scum clarity to claim such a hit. He had alot of towncred allready, a missed hit like this would only put him back on the radar.
Scum don't have a vig, as they would have taken out Palmar with it, doublestacking. Or perhaps some other vet they view as dangerous. With no vig they went for the best safe option, taking out someone who by pushing Adam early was looking very townie, and who wasn't likely to be protected.
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EPT
