EPTdo you have an explanation?
Paranoia Mafia - Page 22
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
do you have an explanation? | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On November 30 2012 08:47 Xatalos wrote: The beginning of this game is quite... different... from newbie games  Trolling seems to be the norm. Somehow I just don't like making yourself artificially harder to read. It's kind of like a selfish metagame plan to confuse other players - not to help your team. What's the point in establishing yourself as a null read? Except denying meaningful information from scumhunting?to a troll post in the space of 16 minutes? Simply because MrZ told you to loosen up because being too uptight looks suspicious? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On December 01 2012 07:27 marvellosity wrote: the insane number of qualifiers you use that i saw some times in that scum filter and not at all in your town filter that i found. Haha. I guess you mean Game of Thrones, where I was extremely indecisive and just followed behind others. But if you look at my later games as Mafia, I was very careful to appear consistent and decisive. I also never was in danger of being lynched (unless you count the end of XXVI where I was catched by a process of elimination). But I was under constant pressure in VII (as VT) and eventually lynched. Kind of like the situation is right now... For some reason I play a better townie as Mafia than as a real townie :/ | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On December 01 2012 07:43 Xatalos wrote: Haha. I guess you mean Game of Thrones, where I was extremely indecisive and just followed behind others. But if you look at my later games as Mafia, I was very careful to appear consistent and decisive. I also never was in danger of being lynched (unless you count the end of XXVI where I was catched by a process of elimination). But I was under constant pressure in VII (as VT) and eventually lynched. Kind of like the situation is right now... For some reason I play a better townie as Mafia than as a real townie :/ No, I mean the filter that DYH linked. + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 11:26 Xatalos wrote: Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point. The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia: At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier. So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good. Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything. s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later. Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia. I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post. On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote: Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia). As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. see the stuff on bold. I also went through 3 pages of your town filter and did not see a single instance of you giving out any sort of town read. It was bang bang bang this guy is scummy, this guy is scummy, this guy is scummy. Not a single townread, not one. Even in the spoiler you're giving out townreads as mafia. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On December 01 2012 07:42 DoYouHas wrote: So Xata, you went from this post (probably the post I like best from you): to a troll post in the space of 16 minutes? Simply because MrZ told you to loosen up because being too uptight looks suspicious? What's your point really? I made one meaningless post that might have as well not existed at all. I guess the overall atmosphere of the thread (trollfest) had some effect on me and I just typed something without thinking much about it. After that I've focused solely on figuring out players though. What more can I say about that? | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On December 01 2012 07:51 marvellosity wrote: No, I mean the filter that DYH linked. see the stuff on bold. I also went through 3 pages of your town filter and did not see a single instance of you giving out any sort of town read. It was bang bang bang this guy is scummy, this guy is scummy, this guy is scummy. Not a single townread, not one. Even in the spoiler you're giving out townreads as mafia. Aha... Well, it's impossible for me to be 100% certain about anything. Especially early Day 1 - if you didn't notice, I've usually arrived to the thread about 10 hours after the game started, but now I was online right at the start. It's much harder to make any good reads based on the first posts (and they were all just trolling this time around). With that said, let's look at VII... On April 13 2012 00:31 Xatalos wrote: I have a hard time figuring out the 3 Mafia from this back-and-forth action, but if we manage to find even one today, it should make it easy to figure out the rest tomorrow. ArcticFox, I want you to post more. Right now the majority seem to be in favor of your lynch, and unless you share your opinions and prove us your innocence, I'm pretty sure you will be lynched at this rate. If you are town, you have nothing to lose by being more active and useful. If you are Mafia, you of course have the right to be silent, but it will probably lead to your lynch. Also Acrofales and yomi, I want to hear why you disregard my case against ArcticFox and actually even have a town read on him! I can understand not being very suspicious of him, but if you're not suspicious AT ALL, I don't know what to say... I'm also calling it now: likely either yomi or Dittert is Mafia. Why? It just seems way too convenient that they lurked all game and SUDDENLY appeared to post RIGHT after I called them out. My suspicion? Could very well be Mafia lurking the thread and only posting when required... I wouldn't call my posting all that decisive. I'm going back and forth a lot with my opinions and questioning myself (see above). I also definitely did share town reads. For example: On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote: Okay, I'm not as good with formatting (or logic, I guess..) as KharadBanar and Acrofales, but I'll try doing a similar overview analysis based on my own thoughts. First of all, we have two confirmed townies: ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE. I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. I also know I am town myself. I'm not sure if I should take it into account in my probabilities, but since KharadBanar did so, I'm going to do the same. I would also say that Acrofales, KharadBanar and vonKlaust have been overall so informative, logical and pro-town in their posting, that their chances of being Mafia are pretty close to zero (in my mind). Considering I'm completely unwilling to lynch any of them right now, I'm going to make their chances of being Mafia 0% to make this a bit simpler. What do we have left now? Only 6 players, of which 3 are certainly Mafia. So, even if there would be a random lynch among these 6 players, it would mean a 50% chance of hitting a Mafia. After hitting one Mafia, it would become infinitely easier to find out the remaining Mafia. The real problem is: among these 6 players, everyone is at least somewhat suspicious. I would say there is a reasonable chance for any of these players being Mafia, although some do rise above the others. The average chance (without any other modifiers) to hit a Mafia in this group is 50%, which isn't too bad already. 1/6 is 17%, so I'm going to take that as the starting point and decrease or increase this percentage based on my own thoughts: - Willz: 10% (has made some suspicious moves, but has almost always defended himself in a very pro-town manner by tackling the issues straight at their core and not resorting to WIFOM, distraction, OMGUS or further suspicious moves - he has also contributed to the thread in an informative and logical fashion) - imallinson: 15% (has been mostly flying under the radar, not bringing himself to the forefront unless forced to, and not contributing more than absolutely necessary to continue flying under the radar) - Funcmode: 17% (it's very hard to say anything about him, since he has an empty filter so far - definitely anti-town play, but not necessarily Mafia play) - HiroPro: 18% (has been somewhat lurking and flying under the radar for the whole game, posting very cautiously and warily when he posts at all - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) - yomi: 20% (started off the game with heavy lurking, finally started to post at the conclusion of Day 1 as he was in danger of being lynched, continued to post in Night 1 as he was in danger of being Vigi shot, never really contributed unless forced to, although I find his latest post about Dittert & HiroPro as a Mafia team as interesting and a bit redeeming for him - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) - Dittert: 20% (was useless/anti-town during the whole Day 1, went lurking for the conclusion of the Day 1 lynch, came back after it to accuse everyone who voted for BroodKingEXE - and claimed town credibility for not voting for BroodKingEXE himself, then stopped his already non-existent contribution and martyred himself without even trying to get himself cleared of the lynch - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) All in all, I think it's essential to lynch either Dittert, yomi or HiroPro for today. Earlier I thought Dittert's town flip would be the ultimate bad situation, but actually even that would provide some information. I'll also look a bit at the connections between Dittert, yomi and HiroPro: - Dittert flips Mafia: makes yomi less suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious - Dittert flips town: makes yomi more suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious - yomi flips Mafia: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious - yomi flips town: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious - HiroPro flips Mafia: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes yomi less suspicious - HiroPro flips town: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes yomi more suspicious So, all of these players have a high chance of being Mafia, and lynching any of them would be at least somehow useful even in the case of a town flip. Since the vote is almost tied between me and Dittert at the moment, I'm definitely going to keep my vote on Dittert for the time being. In case he flips Mafia, I'm willing to vote for HiroPro instead of yomi next. In case he flips town, I think I'm going to vote for yomi again. I feel quite stupid for misunderstanding yomi's post so completely, but I'll try to be more observant, calm and logical in the future. If that moment of my stupidity leads to my lynch and thus an easy path to victory for Mafia, I'll be kicking myself in the head on the observer chat along with BroodKingEXE... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On December 01 2012 08:12 DoYouHas wrote: My point is that I think it is strange that you went from anti-trolling to trolling in the space of 16 minutes. I don't think that those couple responses were as meaningless as you would like me to believe. You have explained yourself clearly, I just don't believe you. Sigh, it feels like talking to a wall. I also trolled in the pre-game discussion, so it's not like I can't do it. I just didn't like how everyone was trolling in the beginning of the game and nothing useful was happening. But then I thought "what the heck" and went with it for a moment. After that I returned to seriousness and started reading filters. And what's your explanation for my "suspicious" switch of attitude in that space of 16 minutes? How is it scummy or "meaningful"? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Well DYH I'm going to reconsider you after that case. Seems pretty well thought out to me | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
You should know yourself they don't compare. Anyways, outside input welcomed. (code for: a bunch of people in this game need to do some shit) | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Since Xata's stance on me has gone from "nothing decisive" to decisive enough to vote, I suppose I should respond to the accusations. + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2012 03:51 Xatalos wrote: One player I find suspicious is VisceraEyes. He hasn't been merely trolling or lurking, but rather posting pseudo-productive posts that make him look somewhat active - without actually accomplishing anything. This playstyle in between useless and useful is the one I'm always suspicious of. This post does actually have a point about debears... But VisceraEyes doesn't pursue it anyhow, just points it out (like some other players did) and never speaks of it again. The rest is pretty much safe-to-say meaningless fluff. A quite unnecessary and forgettable post. Actually an "original" topic, but yet again safe to say and not really that productive. Feels like something Mafia might say to look like they're doing something, while actually not doing anything. I also dislike how none of his posts are connected... It's like he's posting the minimum required amount and avoiding commitment to anything. Overall, nothing decisive, but all of this leaves an uneasy feeling about VE for me. His major problem with my play is that he thinks that I'm being productive but not really? That's pretty meaningless coming from a guy who's only act is to vote for someone based on outdated (I ninja'd him, not really his fault) information and defending himself. Considering the fact that this is D1, and considering the amount of content that is (not) in the thread, I think I've done a fair amount of scumhunting. He cites my questioning Ace as "something Mafia might say to appear helpful without really accomplishing anything." Except, it's only that way because Ace hasn't responded to my inquiry, so that's really out of my control. Further, it discounts the (true) motivation of "Maybe he's just curious about a suspicious vote with no reasoning and wants clarification" Also, I'd like to hear what's "bandwagon-y" about my vote on debears. First of all, I'm like...the second vote on the guy? Third? I'd argue that marv's no-reason vote is more "bandwagon-y", but whatever. I define "bandwagon-y" in a different way I guess. Bandwagon-y wouldn't include reasoning. Bandwagon-y would be like "Welp, everyone else is voting this guy, guess I better hop on the bandwagon." You know....as the made-up word implies? But it wasn't. I gave reasoning for my vote. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
 Sowwy. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
What do you make of Xata's case on me? How did he go from "nothing decisive" to a vote after his statement about me not following up on debears was proven patently false the moment he hit submit on the first post? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On December 01 2012 09:38 VisceraEyes wrote: Interestingly, they're referring to the same guy so I shouldn't have. I didn't filter the guy, I just found the posts I was looking for and quoted them. What do you make of Xata's case on me? How did he go from "nothing decisive" to a vote after his statement about me not following up on debears was proven patently false the moment he hit submit on the first post? Unless I'm missing something drastic, he didn't make a case on you, he kinda voted for you and talked to DYH a lot? Isn't that what happened? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
i'm warring at the moment because from everything i've looked at at his previous games, how he comes across with his votes and townreads in this game lines up more with his mafia play. Then the more sensible side of my brain tells me to stop being stupid because the only anchor i have for his townie play was a newbie 5 months ago :/ | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Here's my analysis of MrZ's town play: In DMM after his admittedly initial troll post (link) he's questioning aggressive (even towards Palmar (link)) and does NOT back down due to Palmar's responses (link). He doesn't waste posts on fluff or really anything except pushing his Palmar read. Town MrZ also has strong opinions about how to read trolling-- he thinks it's not null, but can in fact be scum motivated (link) which is in contradiction to his attitude this game (link). In EMM he begins again without making a case, focusing on the VE claim that game (link), but within 24 hours has voted for ghost (link) and is bull-headed about his read, trying to pull other people onto his wagon (link), and interacting with his town-reads in an attempt to find a better wagon (link) What do we know about MrZ? Well, he's utterly unafraid of calling out players for being scummy, or for trolling. His only use for other people is to bully them to get onto his wagons, unless he develops a strong townread on one. He's aggressive, but focused, and although he's not super convincing he has conviction and as soon as he really shows up in the thread (beyond an opening post) he comes out with strong reads and a case. He will call people out, defend strong town reads (occasionally) and he really only listens to others when he has a strong town read on them. MrZ is not a player who trolls, takes the game lightly, or really does anything other than push his scum reads. He looks down on trolling and says it can be scummy. MrZ is scum This is nothing like the MrZ we've seen this game, who has in fact been in the thread for at least an hour and a half (over a day ago) and has failed to produce typical MrZ results. Now, I know MrZ likes to fool around a bit before his initial case, but he rarely bases his initial case on more than a couple posts from his target. He doesn't afraid of anyone, not even Vets. So where has he been this game? Why is MrZ acting so unlike himself? It'd be one thing if MrZ wasn't in the thread-- he's notable for being absent from the thread for decent amounts of time. But when MrZ does show up, he makes cases, and he backs the shit up out of them. He defends his cases, even when they're brief-- and his cases always EXIST. Even in EMM, his pre-case posts are focused on the town discussion and are attempting to give a read. His posts in this game show none of his aggressive stands against trolling, and the amount of time he spent in this thread would be spent by a town MrZ to make a case, or at least contribute to the discussion, even in its infancy. Contrast his stance on trolling in DMM: On September 01 2012 08:27 MrZentor wrote: No. If somebody acts like mafia, they get lynched. I'm not going to delay the lynching of a mafia, just because you're afraid of lynching a veteran. To his stance here: On November 30 2012 08:54 MrZentor wrote: People assume that if you're too uptight, you're mafia, so the first few pages are always just spam created by people trying to out-relax each other. So have some fun!!  Something is different-- and that something is MrZ. He rolled scum this game. It's not in the lurking, for MrZ is if nothing else is a lurker. It is in how he has spent his time in-thread. This is unlike any MrZ I've ever known. ##unvote ##vote MrZentor come at me bro | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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