EPTChrono Trigger Mafia
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
As far as who I would vote for potential party leaders, I'm extremely biased towards people I've actually played with, because I just innately trust them more. Of course, I mean no offense to sandro/syllo/kita/Toad/whoever, but unless I get scummy vibes from marv, I'll be voting him for party leader, purely because I *know* how intelligent and capable he is, while the others are just hearsay. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 11:30 kushm4sta wrote: IMO: Put the scummiest people on the team. The event will probably involve losing hp. We want scum to lose hp. Also it will give us more play to analyze. But we have to succeed in the events to progress the game forward (or at least thats what I expect), which would mean that scum is inherently trying to make us NOT succeed. Setup speculation, but I don't like your idea. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 11:32 Promethelax wrote: I also forgot that Kier was in this game, he would probably be on my team because <3, first guy to ever catch me as scum. Teehee <3 Also, remember, we aren't necessarily voting for the TEAM, just the leader. Then the leader chooses the team to go with him. Of course, whoever we elect for party leader has to be accountable for his choices, but just throwing out 3-4 names for a team isn't really a "read". | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 11:33 marvellosity wrote: Unless I missed something setup-wise, I'm not getting your linking who gets shot and who is in the party together. If for instance syllogism is town, what difference does it make whether he is in a party or not? Doesn't he just get shot anyway? How does people being in a party, mission successful or otherwise, 'confirm' anything? I think what sandro is trying to say is that scum may try shooting people in the party to sabotage town's chances of succeeding in it, rather than necessarily just shooting the vets. Who knows if that is actually how any of this works, but if you think about it like that (the scum trying to do whatever possible to sabotage the missions), then his idea does make some modicum of sense. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 11:49 Hapahauli wrote: The more I think about this, the more I like Sandro's line of thinking. Our ideal party leader in this scenario is a skilled player with a very distinguishable town/scum meta. From what I've heard about Sandro's play in the thread so far, it fits the bill rather well. That was a quick flip-flop read.... | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 11:50 Hapahauli wrote: Your point is? It's not like I'm making a read - we're still almost entirely in setup speculation no? It's just a super weird change of opinion from "You're suspicious for even suggesting that." to "Okay, I actually like that idea, let's do it" | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 11:55 Hapahauli wrote: Ok, but again, your point is? Do you disagree with me or something? If so, speak up. Otherwise, these random passive accusations are pointless and stupid. Why are you getting defensive? There was a very simple reasoning for your change of opinion, which was already obvious; you thought events required some interaction from the players. Once you realized they didn't, you happily changed your mind. Of course I knew that, but I called you out anyways to see how you would react, and that wasn't the correct way. My goal is to be narrowing down who I plan to vote as party leader. Yes, I already said I will most likely vote marv, but there are definitely other options. You being one of them. But this exchange pushes you down my list a ways. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 12:09 Hapahauli wrote: Damnit you hurt my feelings - you will not be getting my vote either so THERE! But why do you want to vote marv? Did you miss the entire discussion over the last few pages? Ideally we want to vote a veteran who is easy to read and we can be clear on his/her motives. Marv is certainly a veteran, but not someone I can read convincingly enough after 1 day of play to be sure of his motives. I said I would vote marv, barring a scummy vibe from him. And, yes, I feel I have a decent grasp of when marv is acting scummy. The key is, though, that I thoroughly trust marv's ability to make town reads. In the event that he is scum, though, even a scum marv can't afford to pick other scum without some damn good reasoning that they are town, which I believe could be seen through. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 12:16 Promethelax wrote: Keir: how many scum does it take to sabotage a mission? My guess is that even a single one will fuck us so a scum Marv would not need to pick any scummers. How the hell am I supposed to know? I doubt one scum would sabotage a mission, unless they were the scum with the highest hidden modifier in a team full of low modifiers, and even then I kind of doubt it. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 12:23 marvellosity wrote: I would quite like to know what people were "expecting" from a town hapa as well. I already said what I was expecting. The answer you gave, rather than getting defensive. There really was a very, very simple answer, but instead he decided to call my aggression pointless. Doesn't have anything to do with his town meta or whatever, just on my willingness to trust him. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 12:38 Hapahauli wrote: @ Kier No, nonononononnono. No. First of all, marv is really aware of this part of his game and already compensated for it (i.e. "town read" on iamperfection in GSL III). Second of all, don't trust a hypothetical scum marv to include town people on the team. Hell for all we know electing a scum member as the party leader could be an auto-mission fail. We need to vote someone as party leader who we are sure is town. Not rationalize picking a vet because he makes accurate "town reads" as either alignment. That's fucking stupid. You have a point here. We don't actually know what would happen if scum is elected party leader for an event. However, if the consensus is to elect a "vet" as party leader, I trust my ability to read marv correctly more than I trust my ability to read any of syllo/sandro/Toad/whoever correctly. In the event that I feel like marv is giving off scummy vibes, I would be super hesitant to vote to elect any of the other "vets", and would then vote for someone else that I am comfortable reading. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 12:54 Hapahauli wrote: @ Kei I'd like to think I know marv's meta as much as anyone here, but I'm still nowhere near as comfortable as you are reading him on Day 1. He's capable of doing some crazy shenanigans as scum early on. Lastly, I'm a bit surprised you're willing to dismiss voting all those other potential vets without having looked into them. For all we know they could have really transparent metas. You're right, he is capable of pulling off big plays as scum, even day 1. But it's not like I'm giving him a town read already, nor do I plan to vote him until I do. I'm paranoid as fuck when it comes to him, but again, I'm much more confident in my ability to read him than I am any of the other vets, purely because I am extremely familiar with how marv thinks and acts. As far as dismissing the other vets, its mostly because, besides being boring as fuck, I don't think reading through old games (or even obs'ing current games, to an extent) is a particularly good tool for picking up on a person's meta. I believe you really need to actually play a game with someone before you can start to get a grasp on their meta, and how you expect them to act. You need the emotional investment in the game to pick up things thats you quite possibly miss in the emotionally distanced reading of an old thread. I'm not saying its impossible to get town reads on someone you've never played with, but I would never ever make a meta read on someone I haven't actually played with. And I would be much, much, much more confident making a town read on someone like iamperfection than I ever would making a town read on someone I haven't ever played with before. Mostly because my town reads have, in the past, generally not been very good. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 13:17 Hapahauli wrote: @ Kei Err... but you said... Do explain good sir. What is there to explain? Both of those things you bolded say the exact same thing :o | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 13:25 Hapahauli wrote: 1) "I'm not going to vote marv unless I have a town read on him." 2) "I'm going to vote someone unless he's giving me a 'scummy vibe.'" Those two statements mean very different things. The first expresses reservation - that you're not going to vote someone UNLESS you have a town read on them. The second expresses no hesitancy - that you're vote is determined unless marv shows you otherwise. Okay, I guess I see what you're getting at. Just poor wording on my part, I guess. But really, there is no "neutral" ground for me when it comes to marv. Either I believe that he is town, or he is giving off scummy vibes that give me pause. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 13:31 Keirathi wrote: Okay, I guess I see what you're getting at. Just poor wording on my part, I guess. But really, there is no "neutral" ground for me when it comes to marv. Either I believe that he is town, or he is giving off scummy vibes that give me pause. EBWOP: No, you know what. It wasn't poor wording. It's just you trying to poke holes where there aren't any. If marv isn't giving me scummy vibes, then I'm going to have a town read on him. If I have a town read on him, I will vote him today 100%. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 13:41 Z-BosoN wrote: @Hapahauli Yes, it's definitely two different things. In one instance he has his vote on marv until he gets scummy vibes, and in the other, his vote is not on marv until he finds him town. Obviously it's not intentional, but it 100% is not the same thing. I was about to dismiss it as just poor wording when he explained it later, but he just said: Trying to make out this flip-flop. Wth? He's not even referring to his vote in this latest post, just on whatever he thinks of marv. Kei, is your vote on marv or not ffs. Wat..? The whole thing was about who I *PLAN* on voting. I'm not voting anyone right now, nor will I probably vote anyone in the next 24 hours. However, my current plan is to vote for marv, but if I decide that I don't trust him to be most likely town, I will instead vote for someone that I do think is town. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 13:49 iamperfection wrote: as much as i would love stay up with you fine chaps it is past my bed time For those who have played with me before comment on me. you know i have an easy town meta to read so say what you already know to be true iamperfection should be on the team Quit asking for people to read you and play naturally. You did that shit in GSL 3, where you specifically asked me to give a read of you since I am very good at picking up when you are town or not. Just don't. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 13:53 iamperfection wrote: so it should be a null tell keir. Not thinking critically are we keir? It is a null tell. I wasn't calling you scum for asking my opinion on you, I was saying that you asking for my opinion of you doesn't reinforce my opinion of you. When you've kept up the carefree townie meta for a while, I'll gladly give you a public town read. But you are certainly very aware of WHY I would give you a town read, and you've shown to be able to play up to that meta to a certain extent. So asking me to read you just makes how you've been acting up to this point a null tell, rather than what would have been a fairly townie attitude from you. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 13:51 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't understand this. This implies that you would never be unsure about your read on marv - on D1 of all days. Part of me has a really hard time believing that this is the same Kei as in GSL III - the one who was uber reluctant and helpless on D1 to make a read on anyone in the game. It doesn't imply that I would never be unsure of my read on marv at all. I'm much more likely to be paranoid towards marv when he says something fishy (aka 'scummy vibes') than I am for someone like kush, because I know town kush can say really stupid things (no offense kush <3). And, if you remember, day 1 in GSL 3 was a nightmare for me IRL. I had a ton of family shit going on, and I was playing 90% of the game from my phone, which meant I wasn't able to go filter diving, or even devote very much time to the game. I'm not averse to making comfortable day 1 reads, but I generally make them really conservatively. Conservative reads + no time to play meant I was useless. | ||
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Keirathi
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote: Your opinions are still important  .Incompetent reads are far better than no reads at all. What's your current read on sandroba? Slightly town. His plan made a lot of sense if you assume that scum would be trying to influence the outcome of the event even after the party is selected by choosing who to kill, and it was a direct contradiction to the other proposed plan at the time, which shows he wasn't afraid to stick his neck out to propose something that could potentially be worse for scum. That said, his plan relied on the scum mechanics that we have no idea about, so he could be influencing town in the wrong direction. For instance, its possible scum is NOT able to shoot anyone in the party, so keeping all of the vets out of the party could make them "free" kills when otherwise they might not be. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote: Keir brings up a couple good points. Perhaps our host could explain?: Are chosen party members kill-immune? If not, what happens if scum kill a party member? We don't even know anything about HOW the scum kills, other than it doesn't follow the traditional "1 KP = 1 dead". We have an HP value, and have no idea how much HP damage the scum can do in a single cycle, how they will do it, or who they can do it to. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 16:35 goodkarma wrote: The reason we're not doing traditional scumhunting is because we don't have the power to lynch scum. Our time is best used determining who is most likely town, as we're (hopefully) voting for townies as party leader. I've touched on this a few times. Hopefully this is the last time clarification is needed. This game isn't about scumhunting. Rather, it revolves around townhunting. Hope that helps. I see a couple people have questions for me. I'll make a followup post for them within the hour and then I'm calling it a night. Damnit, I was in bed and checked the thread once more from my phone and had to get up to come back and reply to this because of how vehemently I disagree. First: On November 19 2012 09:43 GreYMisT wrote: This game employs a Party Election system. Most of the time (in place of the lynch) players will be voting on a “Party Leader”. The party leader will be elected each day the town is faced with an “event” (this will be notified in the daypost). Notice that it says MOST OF THE TIME there won't be a lynch, implying that there will be a traditional lynch at some point (presumably on non-event days). Also: On November 19 2012 09:43 GreYMisT wrote: Factions and win conditions At some point in the game Lavos will be summoned. The powers and nature of Lavos are hidden until 1999 AD. Win conditions are based around Lavos. Lavos will spawn at a predetermined time in the game. If all mafia die, Lavos will be summoned immediately. Notice the "If all mafia die." How exactly are mafia ever going to die in this game if all we do is townhunt the whole game? I'm going to guess they aren't going to get punished for being selected into the party (and actually, probably rewarded), so they won't be dying from that. So, that only really leaves 1) lynch whenever that's what we do for the day 2) town vigs shooting the scum and 3) third party having some sort of KP Both 1 and 2 require scumhunting. Also, scumhunting narrows down possible town reads. Basically I 100% disagree with you that the only thing we should be doing is townhunting. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 21 2012 15:21 Keirathi wrote: Slightly town. His plan made a lot of sense if you assume that scum would be trying to influence the outcome of the event even after the party is selected by choosing who to kill, and it was a direct contradiction to the other proposed plan at the time, which shows he wasn't afraid to stick his neck out to propose something that could potentially be worse for scum. That said, his plan relied on the scum mechanics that we have no idea about, so he could be influencing town in the wrong direction. For instance, its possible scum is NOT able to shoot anyone in the party, so keeping all of the vets out of the party could make them "free" kills when otherwise they might not be. You might be asking why I think this is even a possibility, when all the speculation this game has been roughly the opposite of that. It makes some modicum of sense to me that being townie enough to get selected to the party could grant you some kind of KP protection. I'm certainly not SURE that it does, but it wouldn't be that far-fetched for me to believe that getting selected to the party has some boon for the people selected. Which would mean that leaving vets out of the party just because they're vets and it makes scum have a "tougher" choice is fallacious, and actually be beneficial to scum. Again, the other way might be "more" likely, but I don't want to dismiss any possibilities at this point until we see more mechanics. I think the best solution day 1 is to just get the 4 people most likely to be town as possible, and see what happens. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 17:09 Toadesstern wrote: This Keirathi guy is mafia. Not because of what he's saying but because of what he's failing to provide: Reasoning as to why he'd post what he did so far. There's simply no reason to get out here and tell people he's planning to heavily focus on reading one guy. Best case scenario is him being pointless, worst case scenario is him trying to look good by providing "something" while actually being pointless. I'd say we've got someone who's trying to get a cheap backdoor exit early on. Really? I'm scum because the people I would be most willing to vote as leader are the people I'm most familiar with? Don't be ridiculous. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 17:19 Toadesstern wrote: no you're scum for pointing that out. That's a important difference. No, you're being dumb. I've played lots of games with marv, iamperfection, S&B, risk.nuke, Z-BosoN, etc. I 100% trust my ability to read them better than I trust my ability to read you or syllo or sandro, whom I've never played with. When it comes down to time for me to vote, I'm going to think "Ok, sandro might be town, and he's getting a lot of votes. But, I'm much more sure that marv is town because I'm way more familiar with how he plays. It makes sense for me to vote him." Plain and simple. If that makes me scum, then tough titties. | ||
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Keirathi
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: And yet you still haven't understood what I'm saying. I'm not saying your reasoning is stupid. If you feel that way fine although I'd hope that you have more than just one guy you feel comfortable to read... I mean you just mentioned a bunch of people, yet you only mentioned Marv earlier, didn't you? The issue is that you get in here telling us about that. You're right, I guess I don't understand. How is explaining how I plan to use my vote scummy? As far as mostly talking about reading marv (at one point, I did mention that there were other people I was comfortable reading if I don't feel like marv should be elected party leader), its because even though I feel like I have a grasp on how to read them, I don't think they'll be likely party leader candidates. No matter how strong of a town read I have on, say, iamperfection, its just pretty damn unlikely that he gets elected as party leader day 1 when there are vets "running" for the position that most of the game is willing to sheep. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 17:51 Toadesstern wrote: The thing is that it gives us (read: everyone who's not you) nothing at all. Fine we got it but why are you telling us that you're planning to favor Marv? Are we supposed to talk about it? I highly doubt it. Then why did you tell us preemptively about it? It really looks like a cheap excuse to justify yourself and I'm having troubles figuring why you'd want to do that? That's why I said at best it's pointless, at worst it's a guy trying to contribute something while actually being pointless. Your early explanation sounds like a set-up for the next couple of hours of this cycle. Ah, okay I guess I understand what you're saying now, at least. People were discussing which vet they were going to vote for, so I said I would likely be voting for marv. Then someone asked "Why marv, isn't he going to be super-hard to read day 1?" Then I started going into the long reasons why. I didn't just come out and say it all; it was an answer to specific questions. Unless you just wanted me to ignore them, then :o Also: You gave two possibilities for my explanations: either useless, or trying to contribute while being useless. Notice neither one of those possibilities are "he's scum". | ||
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Keirathi
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You guys have ignored us, but what do you think of Toads reasoning for me being scum? Do you think I'm scum? What about Deinos 2 scum reads and 2 town reads? Agree or disagree with any of them? | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 21 2012 21:01 Acrofales wrote: If Marv is a 3P, will you get "scummy vibes" from him? In fact, I doubt your ability to pick up scummy vibes from Marv at all on D1, regardless of Marv's alignment. I agree with Toad that this feels like a very cheap justification for parking your vote with no real justification at all. So explain to us all: Why do you think Marv is town unless he gives off scummy vibes? Am I town unless I give off scummy vibes? How about CaveJohnson (add other random unknown smurf here if you prefer)? What exactly constitutes a scummy vibe? I know Marv is rather notorious for hiding his scummy vibes really well. What makes you so confident that your long experience of playing with him let you find these scummy vibes? Hmm, I didn't really think about third party. Just because you doubt my ability to pick up scummy vibes from him, doesn't mean that I can't. Just because you aren't comfortable reading him doesn't mean that I am. Maybe you should ask marv if he thinks I have a decent grasp of his game play? I've talked to him extensively about every game he's played since I started here. Also, you should notice that I haven't parked my vote anywhere, not do I plan to vote marv anymore. In fact, marv doesn't even want to be leader at this point, which is actually a point against him. I would expect a town marv to want to be leader anyways, and not defer to "more capable" vets. He has, however, in the past told me basically the same things about his respect for sandro and syllo, so I don't think it necessarily makes him scummy, just less townie than I would expect from his posting. And no, you or anyone else not giving off scummy vibes doesn't make you town. It makes marv town because I am familiar with his play, and believe I am capable of reading him correctly. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 03:01 Toadesstern wrote: I already adressed this. This kind of post is something that is supposed to look nice while not being nice at all. We want to elect someone who's comfortable to make a decision himself and willing to take responsibility. We don't want to vote someone who's dodging responsibility and opting to go with some kind of majority decreed team. Now the bolded part is interessting. Why do you want to be the first leader? I take it it's not to improve our chances because frankly speaking you don't even feel comfortable to judge someone yourself, do you? So if it's not to improve our chances, what's your reasoning behind running for this position? Do you really have to ask that question? There's a pretty obvious explanation (to me), and if you're not able to see it then it makes me doubt that you are town. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 03:09 Hopeless1der wrote: You'll notice keir didn't say what the 'obvious' was. Keir are you just upset that Toad charged into the thread with a scumread on you? If you can't see a town reason for questioning someone's motives.... I didn't say what the 'obvious' reason was because it feels like he's fishing for information. In fact, you've already explained the 'obvious' reason yourself. And no, I don't care that he charged into the thread with a bullshit reason for me being scum. I actively encourage people to read my filter and meta and give their opinions of me. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 03:24 CaveJohnson wrote: I'll take the wishes of the actual player over an interpretation of play from someone who is being supported by the player in question. Syllo has chosen himself to be taken out of the running and we should respect that. On November 21 2012 22:45 syllogism wrote: Right now it is likely that I will support sandroba if I do not gain the necessary votes, even if I'm not "fairly sure" that he is town. The problem is that just electing someone who is very likely to be town isn't enough as the person has to also be able to identify 3 townies at a high enough probability on day 1. Anyway, currently it would definitely optimal from my point of view that I would be elected over him due to my uncertainty. I'm not likely to put effort into convincing sandroba voters to switch to me, if that's what you mean by running, but I'm definitely "running" in the sense that I wouldn't mind people voting for me. | ||
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Keirathi
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As to your second point: SSB mafia with pikachu (or a kirby who eats a pikachu). | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 05:36 phagga wrote: why is that townie? I would expect a townie to want to be part of every mission if possible, as it will make sure that at least that spot is not occupied by scum (from that specific townies point of view). If a townie has a low "success modifier". I could see him not wanting to be picked especially in the early game where its much more likely that a scum (or two) are picked for the team inadvertently and it could cause mission loss. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 05:42 Acrofales wrote: How the hell do you have any idea what your HIDDEN success modifier is? What CaveJohnson's post made me think of was 3rd party. I thought syllo was referring to the fact that a 3rd party didn't want to come along on the mission was "townie", because he at least cares enough about the town to warn them off. So why do you think I said that, then? | ||
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Not specifically, but yes. | ||
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Keirathi
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I don't know "My 'success modifier' is 3." But I do know that I have a low success modifier. | ||
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On November 22 2012 05:47 Acrofales wrote: Don't ask me. I think you're scum. You have been completely useless all game and if other people's assessments of your meta are any good, then your town meta is to be constructive rather than yell at the top of your lungs that you're town. My only experience with you was in Caller's failed game, where you were a veteran vampire cult, so I won't go on my own experience playing with you. His town meta has nothing to do with being a strong townie, and everything to do with his attitude towards the game. As town he is carefree and says whatever the fuck he feels like. As scum, he's careful, reserved, and can get defensive/apologize when people call something he says or does bad. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 05:51 iamperfection wrote: so obviously we shouldn't put you on the team then. How do you know its low? How do you think I know? Dur, don't ask stupid questions. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 06:01 Acrofales wrote: Nobody has called stuff he says or does bad yet. Lets start! Oh wait, I just did. Well, again, the reason people can read him so easily doesn't have anything to do with how constructive he is. I am a bit perplexed by him spending so much time trying to make sure people have a town read on him though. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 06:07 iamperfection wrote: i want to be on the team obviosuly Wanting to be in the team doesn't make you town. Scum definitely want to get into the party to increase town's chances of failing the event. You're trying really hard to make sure people think that you are town when you really don't need to. People who are familiar with you are quite capable of reading you without you asking, and the fact that you are asking makes me less likely to trust my instincts. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 07:45 Clarity_nl wrote: Because in my sheeping I reasoned that even sheeping a scum marv on that issue would be fine. It says it right there, after the part you bolded. It's fine if marv is one of your town reads, but I don't like/understand your reasoning. The only thing you mention is that he has the same view on how to handle party creation as you, but I don't think there are many people who disagree with that... so why marv? I agree with Clarity here. Having a town read on marv isn't a bad thing, but your reasoning to justify that town read were extremely weak, and something scum marv is certainly capable of (and definitely WOULD be) doing. ANd it feels like your just picked out the vets, and came up with some kind of justification of why they could be town, rather than you actually believing that they are town. And its weird to me that you endorsed sandro as leader, when his plan was for him to be leader and then select 3 "newbies" of whom he was certain they were town, rather than vets, in an attempt to save the vets. But, in your ideal party, you would be taking all vets. Also, marv, why are you being so cavalier about a town read on yourself for some arguably terrible reasoning? Maybe I'm biased because I'm suspicious as fuck of anyone calling me town for reasons that I don't believe are strong enough to actually make that assessment, but your reaction toward it was...lacking, imo. | ||
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Keirathi
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On November 22 2012 08:09 Hapahauli wrote: Oh uh CaveJohnson is the topic du jour? I'll get to that. In other news, I'm pretty sure Kei is town at this point. He seems to care about the thread, though he can do that as either alignment. However, what convinces me he's town is a post he made towards iamperfection: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=23#458 At this point in the game, he was under fire from myself and Z-Boson for a "contradiction" in his attitude on marv. In this position, it's not a natural impulse for scum to go and antagonize another player. Scum here want to buddy people instead of picking other fights. Not only does it go against a general mentality of mafia, but it goes against the more "cooperative" mafia-meta that Kei has. Maybe your meta read is right after me playing one game as scum ever, but on the off chance that it's not, wouldn't it make sense for me as scum to be less willing to give out town reads, especially on someone I generally find pretty easy to read correctly as the game goes on? If I was scum and he was town, it would be in my best interest to keep him on the table as a potential scum candidate as long as possible, no? | ||
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On November 22 2012 10:47 Hapahauli wrote: Well it has nothing to do with your stance on iamperfection - it's your willingness to pick a fight with him when you were in a vulnerable position. That, to me, isn't a scum instinct. The argument certainly could be made that you're trying to deflect attention, or that it was "forced," or whatever, but I don't see it in that post. Very well. Carry on. | ||
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I don't know "My 'success modifier' is 3." But I do know that I have a low success modifier.[/QUOTE] While reading through the filters, I came across this post. What struck me as strange was that Keirathi insists he has a low success modifier. On what basis is he making this assumption? From my point of view, I would have no idea whether 3 was a low value or the highest value in the game. Only if I had the ability to compare my modifier with other players could I come to this conclusion. [/QUOTE] I think you misunderstood what I was saying. iamperfection asked me if I knew my specific success modifier, and I said "well, I don't know that my success modifier is 3, but I do know that its low". It was worded poorly, but I was trying to say that I don't know specifically what my success modifier number is, only that its low. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On November 22 2012 11:31 kitaman27 wrote: While reading through the filters, I came across this post. What struck me as strange was that Keirathi insists he has a low success modifier. On what basis is he making this assumption? From my point of view, I would have no idea whether 3 was a low value or the highest value in the game. Only if I had the ability to compare my modifier with other players could I come to this conclusion. I think you misunderstood what I was saying. iamperfection asked me if I knew my specific success modifier, and I said "well, I don't know that my success modifier is 3, but I do know that its low". It was worded poorly, but I was trying to say that I don't know specifically what my success modifier number is, only that its low. | ||
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That said, I don't currently plan on voting him for party leader because I don't necessarily trust his judgement (I don't particularly think his "town reads" post was very strong, particularly since I'm not convinced Acro is town), and his "the public choose my party members if I'm elected" idea was just bad. I do believe he would be a good person to pick for the party, just not as the leader. I actually really like GK's recent post. I could see maybe backing him for leader over a "vet". I'll think about it some more and read a few more filters. | ||
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On November 22 2012 15:13 Promethelax wrote: *snip* My vote will be on Kita, the candidate I trust. The reasons I trust him 1) I am in his party and know that I am town. That leaves only three others in the party and I have a town read on all three. 2) I am very unhappy with how into Syllo/Sand this thread is. The lack of a real campaign away from theirs worries the shit out of me. Mafia would want to be leader or in the party and the only way that is confirmed is if one of them is mafia. Ergo ## vote: kitaman This kind of linking yourself to a player running for candidacy makes me suspicious as hell, and I'm sure you can understand why. I mean, I can certainly see you as a townie seeing someone talking about adding you to their party if they get elected and thinking "Oh, I should elect that guy!". But if you're scum, you're going to want to do the exact same thing, and if you're scum together you would want to do it even more. It feels like you're trying awfully hard to discredit the other candidates while pushing your own which has a personal benefit to you. As an aside, I just realized that this is kind of a side effect of asking potential candidates to lay out their list of players that they want to bring in their party. If any of those people are scum, scum are going to do whatever they can to try to make sure that person gets elected party leader over other ones. | ||
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On November 22 2012 16:17 Oatsmaster wrote: @Syllo I think that it is a better idea to talk about your party members and give reasoning rather than keeping it quiet, at least for the first cycle. This way it gives us more info about the players and your reads on them which will help us when the flips start happening. What do you think about my point that party leader candidates expressing who they plan to choose as their party giving mafia extra influence as to who they want to vote to elect in the event that one of the candidates has a scum member in their proposed parties while the others might not? | ||
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Yea, I feel better about syllo than any of the other candidates. I said I wouldn't like to vote for a vet, but it appears I don't really have a choice. Sandro hasn't really DONE anything, imo, and kita's campaign is filled with useless "joke" lines (vegetarian, wouldn't run a newbie wah wah, etc) that seem overly flippant for someone trying to get elected as party leader. Plus, I really don't like the way Prom jumped in endoring Kita just because Kita picked him as his party; that felt scummy as hell to me. Also, I honestly believe syllo's system of keeping his candidates hidden is actually the best approach for right now. Prom's endorsement of kita made me realize it, but if a candidate is openly claiming to want to bring some scum along in his party, then scum is going to do whatever possible to get that person elected. I feel that keeping it hidden will make scum stick out more by being hesitant to vote that person into the position. | ||
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On November 23 2012 03:01 CaveJohnson wrote: I've seen 3s flying around I can't remember who actually said them but there have been claims You're talking about me. I never said my modifier was 3, in fact the complete opposite. I said I didn't know what my actual "modifier number" was, ie, I didn't know if it was 3, or 100, or 10000, or whatever, just that it was "low". | ||
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On November 23 2012 02:39 TheChronicler wrote: How would you have taken any damage anyways? That post by Kira seems nonsensical. Sorry, I just wanted to comment on why Kita's sentence made some sense. When kush shot, he said that "If marv has more HP than I do, then I will die and he will live." After kush died, if scum glanced at his role PM without reading it carefully, they would have seen that kush had 600 HP and possibly have not noticed that the ability was based on % hp rather than a flat amount. So, if marv was townie, the impression to a scum not reading kush's role PM carefully but seeing kush's claim when he shot could potentially think "Oh, damn, marv has more than 600 HP. " which could make them more careful about choosing when to shoot him. Town marv would benefit much, much more from letting the misconception ride. (Caveat: if he actually has MORE than 600 hp, then shutting down the misconception could make sense, as it makes him appear "weaker".) | ||
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On November 23 2012 03:06 Hopeless1der wrote: Keir, I won't demand an answer here, but do you know anything about your modifier itself or just that you'll inadvertently sabotage events? I won't sabotage events or anything (I presume). My PM just says that events that I'm in have a lower chance of success. | ||
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On November 23 2012 03:12 marvellosity wrote: hey Kei baby, how are those scum vibes going? Ringing pretty steadily. Maybe third party rather than scum though. | ||
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On November 23 2012 06:06 marvellosity wrote: What apologetic bullshit? What are you talking about? It's certainly possible sandroba could be mafia, but I doubt syllogism is. But why does one of them 'have to be'? Also I take a somewhat perverse pleasure that people like you and Kei don't know how to read me accurately still. Although it'd be easier if you simply found me town, of course. If you think you're being "obviously town" this game, then you're being ridiculous. Maybe you are town, I'm not really sure yet because your play isn't how I would expect you to play as scum. But you've been nearly entirely useless this game, which is pretty strange for you. | ||
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On November 23 2012 06:10 marvellosity wrote: I never said I was being obviously town. Depends how you describe utility. Mine being "get my preferred candidate elected". There aren't that many who can claim to have succeeded in that. You haven't really done anything to push people towards voting syllo though. You just dropped a vote on him early, and then argued with people about other less important things. Yea, you argued pretty heavily against kita, but he never really had much support. I feel like if you were really trying to "get your preferred candidate" elected, you would have been talking to people voting for sandro and asking them why and trying to convince them that syllo was a better choice. | ||
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Yes, the votecount is stacked now. It hasn't been for the full day though. Sandro was winning for the first part of the day, then it was tied for a long time, and syllo just started pulling ahead in the last ~12 hours or so. | ||
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On November 23 2012 06:18 Acrofales wrote: But I like him more than the other candidates, particularly Hapa, who is yet another from the gang of people who seem to be doing a great job of calling each other town for no reason I can see (Hapa, GK, Clarity, Keirathi, iamperfection). Ermm what? I haven't given a town read to a single person in that list :o | ||
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On November 23 2012 06:23 Acrofales wrote: Why do you think that? Why do you feel it was necessary? Syllo was managing that quite well by himself. I agree that Marv had little part to play in the wagon on Syllo, but accusing him of NOT doing things that were patently unnecessary is just weird. I think that because marv said his utility this game was "getting his preferred candidate elected." His words, not mine. He seems to think that he is the reason syllo is likely to be selected as party member, when I don't think that that's the case at all. | ||
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I called him useless. I would expect town marv to come up with some witty retort or maybe get "angry" (something along the lines of "I'm not the one being useless, babe. You are."). Not to explain why he has, in fact, not been useless. | ||
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On November 23 2012 06:37 marvellosity wrote: Christ that's awful. You do me a disservice. Sorry I'm not well versed in insult-ology. | ||
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On November 23 2012 06:55 Z-BosoN wrote: Strong town read on marv? Really? If marv hadn't told be beforehand he wasn't gonna take this game seriously, I would have gone with scum read on marv. He spends a ton of time arguing with cave fellow for no reason at all, the guy is and has been a lost cause since he began posting. He's not nearly as active and as involved as his other games. He's not willing to run for party. I've reread his filter and there is nooooo way you can get a town read on marv that fast, with that kind of bad reasoning. Someone else had a town fast, with zero reasoning. Especially SNB, who's played with him a ton of times. SnB's filter though seems pretty much like his town filter from last game, in terms of low activity and post coutn, but I haven't played with him much. Marv, do you have any meta read on him? S&B quoted this with a silly response, but it really doesn't make a lot of sense. You spent a lot of words to say you don't have a town read on marv, then in the same breath ask marv for his meta read of S&B. If marv is, in fact, not town while S&B is, don't you think he would theoretically try to strengthen your scum read on S&B via answering your question? | ||
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On November 23 2012 07:15 Z-BosoN wrote: On this game I can tell SnB's filter looks more like the last game we played with and he was town (which I got right, thanks) than in his scum games, and marv wouldn't have been crazy enough to give SnB a scum read here, from either faction. Not sure I understand your issue, do you not interact with people you are suspicious of? What do you think of snb? Do you agree that adam looks like new scum trying to blend in? I'm not sure what to think about S&B. He's mostly been trolling again. His huge town read on marv is pretty silly, imo, which you agree with. Other than that, he hasn't really said much of substance. Mostly null. Adam I'm a little biased towards I think. He came in with a meta-based town read on me, which while not necessarily a strong reason for me being one alignment or the other (since I'm pretty self-aware of my own meta), it seems weird for a scum Adam to pick me of all people to give that kind of town read to. I'm not exactly a stellar player, nor likely to influence much of day 1. Seems like scum Adam, knowing what vets were town, would have been better off backing them rather than me. Slightly green shaded null, I guess. | ||
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On November 23 2012 07:30 strongandbig wrote: keir do you honestly think i'm "trolling" this game? like, am i being anything comparable to last game? Cause I don't want last game to go down again Maybe trolling is the wrong word. Not-caring is more appropriate, but yes. | ||
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On November 23 2012 07:32 Hapahauli wrote: Well you are "sheeping" him. You're putting what seems to me like blind faith in him, and this is something I'd associate more with your "lazy" scum-play than your town play. I also have no idea how people (including you) are reading Syllo so strongly as town. I wouldn't say that I have a super strong town read on syllo, but I feel he is much more likely to be town than any of the other candidates. I can make a case as to why each of them COULD be scum, but I have to grasp at straws more for syllo than anyone else. And I still like the idea of not publicly announcing your party early, no matter how much you disagree with me. If syllo does end up flipping town eventually like I suspect, then the fact that you're gaining so much momentum at this point in the day just reinforces my belief that scum were being "forced" to vote for a candidate that they didn't necessarily want to get elected (because it would give town a better chance of succeeding the event) just because hanging on to a weak vote on sandro or kita or whoever would have looked bad. Then you come in with your big campaign, and they see a chance to knock syllo out of the election. Granted that's all just future speculation, but that's how I see things playing out right now. | ||
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On November 23 2012 07:42 Z-BosoN wrote: Oh, so you know him? Is he a new player? Since I've never heard of him I thought he was new, and his play generally seemed like new player trying to blend in. Hmmm. Is he always this lurky? He's definitely not new. He's been around for a long time I believe. I played with him in Whose Line and he seemed to have some history from way back with BlazingHand, because they kept a running commentary against each other for some wrongs each one did to the other at some point in the past. And yes, he was pretty lurky in that game too. | ||
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On November 23 2012 07:53 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Unvote: Syllogism ##Vote: Hopeless1der Things and such. I, uh, what? | ||
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On November 23 2012 09:12 Toadesstern wrote: You're the one who openly said you don't want to be on missions because that'll make failures more likely because you know you've got a low hidden value, aren't you? Yes. And that's why i'm surprised I was picked. Marv's only comment about me this game has been "I don't think Keir is pushing a scum agenda", though. | ||
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There were some talk of portals and things in the day post, but I didn't see anything to suggest we changed positions in time. Just want to make certain though. | ||
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On November 23 2012 10:53 Toadesstern wrote: thx, said the guy who wasn't able to make an educated guess about wether Keirathi outright claimed mafia in the thread or wether he was really concerned about leading the mission to failure with his (supposed to be) low hidden value. Did YOU give an opinion on if I was claiming scum in the thread or not? I don't remember you doing so. | ||
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On November 23 2012 11:04 Toadesstern wrote: well I would have if I had considered it to be a mafiaclaim. I don't talk about townreads... So, you had a scum read on me, then i claimed something weird in the thread and that moved me to a town read? | ||
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Yes, it was an inadvertent slip, talking about something a "VT" wouldn't have knowledge of. Just weird that no one even really questioned me about it. | ||
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On November 23 2012 11:35 Toadesstern wrote: Pretty sure people asked you o.O Pretty sure either you or someone else said it's probably because of the name of your role as you kept saying you don't know the exact number. People asked me how I knew what my modifier was, and if I knew it specifically. I guess this is pretty off-topic and pointless though, but it kind of bugs me that no one was interested in really engaging me in conversation, trying to figure out if I was concerned town or dumb mafia, and asking me why I claimed low success modifier to begin with. On November 23 2012 11:35 Dienosore wrote: Why did you claim you have a low success modifier? And why did you use the word 'had'? Does your success modifier change? No, my modifier didn't change. Probably just wrong verb tense? I was talking in the past "No one [then] asked me why I had a low success modifier". Had seems like the correct conjugation, but maybe 'have' is? | ||
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On November 23 2012 11:40 Djodref wrote: I took a 20HP damage tonight Could anyone not voting for syllo yesterday and not in the party could tell us if he took similar amount of damage ? I'm guessing that mafia had activated a power to target all syllo voters. I might be wrong... What about applying the Lynch a Lurker policy for today ? On a side note, I don't think that he is scum so far and I don't want a wagon to form until he comes back to the thread and provides some explanations and reads and all... He did disappear like this during our Looney game and he was town. ##Vote: BioSC All syllo voters EXCEPT those in the party? That doesn't make a ton of sense. I voted syllo and was in the party. I took 0 damage. | ||
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On November 23 2012 12:26 Djodref wrote: @Toad That's a good point. But would you say that syllo is now confirmed town ? My point was made to show Clarity that we shouldn't consider syllo as totally confirmed yet. Of course, he is more likely to be town than anything else but not 100% confirmed imho. I didn't totally think at all the implications of my point. No, he's not "confirmed" town. I don't expect we'll have anyone confirmed town in this whole game. But there's a damn good probability that syllo is town at this point, imo. | ||
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On November 23 2012 13:04 Dienosore wrote: Damn wish I could edit you in. Another thing I forgot to add. Since this game seems like it's going to be pretty dynamic, I'm also considering the possibility that the queen we just saved can be utilized in some way. Maybe someone's PM said something like "if the group saves you, you get so-and-so power" or maybe she's just an NPC that will make our next mission easier, IDK -_- Probably some bonus when we have to fight Lavos, imo. | ||
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TheChronicler The points against him are really strong (particularly the "giving town reads is anti-town" opinion, when his day 1 plan relied exactly on that). Waiting on him to explain more, but I'm liking him for the vote today right now. sandroba Nothing in his filter jumps out to me as anti-town mindset. Really, the only point against him is that he's been lurky, when I observed Looney and he was pretty lurky there too as town. Not enough for me to vote him right now. Promethelax He's someone else I think we should be talking about today as a lynch candidate. Let's take a look at his first two posts: On November 21 2012 10:54 Promethelax wrote: *snip* So, it seems to me that we need to vote for the towniest player possible for the challenge. I think anyone who wants to be elected as party leader should announce who they will pick to work with them so that they have something which they have to stand by. I don't want mafia to be able to choose an all mafia team (or 3rd party or whatever the hell else GreY put in this game). or, if they do I'd like them to have to at least put their stances in the thread on which players seem most townie and most scummy. On November 21 2012 11:01 Promethelax wrote: I see Acro has sniped me in terms of the idea of any potential leader posting their core group. Has anyone played in a similar set-up before? Or does anyone have the link to Resistance? I haven't read it. Based on the fact that Acro had the same though as me and from our last game together I would currently, put him in my team, along with Acro I would add Marv (come on, wouldn't you?) and as third player I would chose Hapa. Hapa is a guy who over many games I have come to like and respect though I once hated him. He is a great town player and a kinda crappy scum player, seems like the right guy to have along for the ride. TL:DR My team: Acro, Marv, Hapa I'm curious if putting one player who seems like a liability (one of the guys known for trolling or one of the smurfs) onto the team so that we can get a read on them from their actions makes sense? It seems like we won't have lynches but knowing who scum is/is not will help town players direct any and all actions which they have and i assume making sure that non-town players not being on the quest team will be a good thing for us as the OP specifies that they can make it more difficult to achieve our objectives. So, he's already thinking about voting the towniest person into the group as a leader, because he didn't want an all scum party. He even goes so far as to suggest putting a "liability" into the group to test if they are townie or not. But, he doesn't pick people for his group because they are TOWN. He just picks them because he respects them as good players. They are two very different lines of thinking within just those two posts. Then: On November 21 2012 12:08 Promethelax wrote: Kier: would you really vote for Marv? Do you think you have the ability to meta read him well enough to know that he is town? I don't think I could and, unless someone can convince me that he is town or the person he is running against is super scummy I will NOT vote Marv. And: On November 21 2012 12:16 Promethelax wrote: Keir: how many scum does it take to sabotage a mission? My guess is that even a single one will fuck us so a scum Marv would not need to pick any scummers. But, marv was one of his proposed team, and, he was proposing to put a 'liability' player into the group to test if they were scum. However, those earlier thoughts don't line up with his thinking that a single scum could cause the event to fail. Now, I'll grant him a little benefit of the doubt here. His first two posts were still during the period of the game when people were guessing that the events were more of a "challenge" rather than a "plug townies in and you win" thing, so the change of opinions could make some sense. But he was still worried about having a part without scum in it earlier, but his picks didn't show that at all. And now, what really got me thinking about Prom more: On November 22 2012 02:22 Promethelax wrote: You know catching up with this thread is a million times worse than I was hoping, remember how I said that I was toning down the amount which I am posting? Could you all do me a favour and consolidate too. Thanks. After reading the last ~20 pages I have come to a conclusion as to who I want to vote. It isn't Sylo and it isn't Sand. Their abilities are, no doubt, incredible but I don't like the way Sand took over the thread early and no one challenged him. I feel that a mafia player would in fact have tried to take over. (Remember Matt's reed of Decundo in PP) as such I'll be voting away from the two of them and towards someone who I read as town right now and who is known for having good reads. ## Vote: Acro Come on boys, lets do this right and make Sand have to fight for his nomination. I'll be out again for a few hours. See ya'll soon. On November 22 2012 15:13 Promethelax wrote: I'm catching up, but writing as I read. I have never played with either of you before, I have trouble reading you and while it is true that you gained much support on a good idea. One which you got from reading the OP more acuretly than anyone else (we all thought that we needed strong players on the team, you realized that all we needed was townie players) you are a smart guy and, from what I have read of you, I would bet that you would have made this same play as town or scum. The fact that there was not an obvious counter wagon after you makes me lean scummy on you just as an unopposed lynch on day 1 would give me a townie read on the player who was up for lynch. I did not address Syllo because he did not seem to be a credible candidate to me at that point. I'm not going to vote Acro as he did not try to generate momentum from my vote on him and I will be voting somewhere else instead. nah brah, it is how I play. I don't vote for a scum read until I think they are scum even if the thread as a whole disagrees (look at my d1 town vibes on muso in ACME). I was about to support Kush as a townie. He talked to me pre game about his fear of the size of this game and the themey-ness of this game. He was truly concerned and did want a just Vanilla game. I would expect more posts from scum kush because he would want to match his meta. My vote will be on Kita, the candidate I trust. The reasons I trust him 1) I am in his party and know that I am town. That leaves only three others in the party and I have a town read on all three. 2) I am very unhappy with how into Syllo/Sand this thread is. The lack of a real campaign away from theirs worries the shit out of me. Mafia would want to be leader or in the party and the only way that is confirmed is if one of them is mafia. Ergo ## vote: kitaman I'm keeping up with the thread but doing my best to spam less as I have less to say. Trying to keep my posting short and sweet, this thread is hard enough to read without my help. I'll be around for a bit. Any questions: shoot. In the first post, he addresses Syllo as a serious candidate, then in the second he says "I didn't address syllo because he wasn't a serious candidate at that point". 1) I do think he was a serious candidate and 2) Prom did actually address syllo. Which makes me wonder why the hell he even said that. His whole argument about there not being a counterwagon to syllo/sand only makes sense if BOTH of them are scum. If one of them is scum, then the other IS the counterwagon. But what really bugs me is how he jumps off of the Acro vote because "Acro didn't try to gain any momentum with my vote" and onto kita, SOMEONE HE HAD NEVER EVEN MENTIONED. First off, that argument for jumping off of Acro doesn't make any sense. Does not trying to gain momentum make Acro scum? Certainly not. Scum would 100% want to garner support to get elected as party member if he already had some modicum of support behind him. Of course, he still has a town read on Acro because Acro is in kita's proposed party. But, it really feels like he's just looking for justification to hop off of Acro and onto the candidate who has him as a party member (and I actually find kita's justification for putting him in the party pretty weak anyways. I'm not positive if that makes me think kita is scum yet, though). Now, like I said earlier, I can see a townie doing that if at least one of the following two condition are met: 1) he, knowing he is town, believes that all 4 people of the proposed party are, in fact, town (which was what he said) 2) has a scum read on all the other available candidates. But there are a TON of benefits for a scum to do this. Especially a scum who ostensibly believes that 1 scum could cause a mission to fail. Bah, I'm kind of rambling a bit. TL;DR - Ran smear campaign on every other potential candidate in an effort to get the one candidate that had him in the party elected. | ||
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On November 24 2012 06:17 TheChronicler wrote: I still like a Sandro lynch. My problem eith him is that I think he knows too much. He's also got the most people consolidated on him. How the fuck does that make him scum? | ||
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On November 24 2012 06:21 TheChronicler wrote: It doesn't? Why read into it like that? You were giving reasons for why you wanted to lynch him. Our goal is to lynch scum. Therefore the bolded part of your post is completely, 100% irrelevant. So why did you even say it? | ||
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On November 24 2012 06:39 syllogism wrote: But I'm not going to waste time on hypotheticals and I don't see why you are wasting time interrogating me when I'm about as confirmed town as one can be. So, I was thinking about this more earlier. The reasons you gave for picking me for the party were pretty good if you are town. But if you're scum, you would have almost HAD to pick me. Dieno claimed that he was Frog, a 600AD character who increased the party's chance of success. Therefore, you basically HAD to pick him just because of that, even if you're scum (besides the fact that he has been playing very obviously with a townie mindset). So, if he had a high success modifier, and you were scum, then me claiming that I had a low success modifier would make me almost a guaranteed pick if you wanted any chance of actually making the event fail. Now, granted, the more likely option is that you were town and just picking town reads. But I can't dismiss you as a scum possibility just yet after picking me. | ||
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On November 24 2012 06:51 Clarity_nl wrote: Why would he have to pick you as town? I was rather confused that you were picked to be completely honest. I didn't say he had to pick me if he was town. If he is scum, though, he basically HAD to pick me. | ||
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Completely neglecting the possibility of third party KP? | ||
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On November 24 2012 12:31 kitaman27 wrote: Third party players usually go for mafia sniping early on or target threats. Yes, its a possibility though. Yea, my problem with your speculation is that it relies on too many unknowns to amount to anything. What if there were a bunch of protective roles on Dieno, and he really took 800 damage? What if sandro actually is mafia, and third party were shooting him to mafia snipe, like you say? Too many possibilities with virtually 0 information to draw any kind of conclusions, imo. | ||
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I agree with Hapa here. He's bordering on the edge of my scumdar, because he's fallen out of his characteristic posting style. However, it was Thanksgiving and he said he was going to be away. I'll give him a bit of time to step it up before I seriously consider voting for him. | ||
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But, prom had never mentioned kita even once. Then bam, he's in kita's party, and suddenly has a town read on him enough to back him for a vote. But, he never really gave kita a huge town read (despite saying that the leader should be the towniest person of the day), he mostly just said "yea, I kinda think kita is town but its not a really strong read, I just like his party," while simultaneously smearing syllo/sand for some dubious reasoning. | ||
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On November 24 2012 15:08 TheChronicler wrote: 2) You're right, I didn't. Why should I influence other people's choices? The best information is given by people making choices that haven't been influenced. The "reads" you quoted there at the end is referring to any reads by a single person. We're supposed to trust the reads of a single person who could very well be scum? Sylo isn't even confirmed town and we have Keir in thread saying he's near confirmed scum. What? No, all we know is that he picked a successful team. I think there's equal motivation for scum to succeed as there is to fail it, maybe more to succeed. I don't even know what happens if we fail the event, but it didn't look like anything happened when we won it. Maybe scum knows the results of a win/loss, maybe having a near confirmed leader was more valuable than risking another of their members to force a loss since that narrows the fault to the four people on the team, while success has now given them the chance to put the entire thread under suspicion. I guarantee if we failed the scrutiny would have fallen on the four and we would be lynching one of the four. How is that good for scum? Why am I the only one thinking of this? Huh? Are you saying that I'm nearly confirmed as scum, or that I've said that syllo is nearly confirmed scum? Because neither are true. I said syllo was most likely town, but that him choosing me for the party leaves some room for doubt. | ||
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On November 25 2012 05:49 goodkarma wrote: This is a good point, but it's not like Sandro has been perma-afk or anything. He has been incredibly inactive, but when he has been here he has had nothing to contribute except in defense of himself. This has been brought up before, but it is the same kind of scumtell as you're using for the case against Toad. I won't be upset if Toad is lynched. However, that syllo is on Sandro, and I know that syllo is town, is enough to tip the scales in favor of lynching sandro for me. How the hell do you KNOW that syllo is town? He's not confirmed town by any means. | ||
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On November 25 2012 07:13 goodkarma wrote: I am under the working assumption that he is town based off mission success. In other words... what iamp said. Unless you plan on making a last-minute wagon on me due to this one instance of poor word choice, though, perhaps weighing in on the two main candidates would be a better use of your time? My mind is blown that with an hour left to go people nitpick over things like this when really the only question you should be asking is: Sandroba or Toad? I'm working on a post about Sandro and Toad. It takes time to write up something like that, and I keep refreshing the end of the thread to see if there's any kind of new evidence or opinions that I should take into account. But that comment was more than just a "poor" choice of words. I've had a few posts this game that were misconstrued because of a poor choice of words, but what you said was borderline scumslip. If it wasn't so late in the day, I would put more research into you, but I just don't have time. | ||
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sandro I'm of two minds when I think about this lynch. On one hand, I think syllo is most likely town (but there is still a fair probability that he isn't, which I've given reasons for thinking), and he proclaims to have a good handle on reading sandro. Besides that, sandro have been entirely uncooperative. The only thing he's done today in his meager amount of posts is try to defend himself to syllo. Not scumhunting, not pushing an earlier read, just purely defending himself. And I find it a bit hard to believe that someone that is as respected as a town player as sandro is would have garnered that kind of respect if that was his response to a wagon on him in other town games. But, on the other hand, this wagon has been almost entirely too easy. There was a little kita push at one point, and now some pressure onto Toad here at the end of the day, but otherwise there hasn't been any kind of counterwagon. Is scum so willing to give up one of the arguably best players in the game? Now, maybe they thought the sandro lynch today was such a foregone conclusion that they were forced to bus, but I have a hard time believing that. And I can just picture any potential scum team chomping at the bits of getting one of the "best" town players on TL lynched rather than having to shoot him. Honestly, I'm torn on his lynch as to which side is more likely. I think I would lean slightly more to the "sandro is scum" side, though, since I believe syllo is town at this point. Honestly, if there was another major candidate besides Toad, I probably wouldn't vote sandro though. Pre-Post edit: I actually forgot about the Prom/Sandro claim shenanigans. I've never seen any game where a tracker gets results on a person that is roleblocked. Sounds pretty far fetched, and I think that actually pushes me over the edge into voting sandro. Toad Yes, Toad has been noncommittal, hasn't scumhunted, etc etc. But I keep getting hung up on his claim right before he disappeared. If he is scum, its such an odd role. He has to have someone vote him on each lynch day to avoid taking damage? I mean, it's an odd town role too, but it seems counterproductive to a scum team to have to play scummy enough to receive a vote every day. | ||
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On November 25 2012 07:53 CaveJohnson wrote: lol I'm not trying to be heroic or brave also this is a town meta for me if you want to use behavioral analysis so much. You did none of that in Aperture 2. | ||
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On November 25 2012 07:56 goodkarma wrote: Sandroba is likely going to be modkilled. I'm changing my vote. ##Unvote ##Vote: Toad The problem is that he likely wouldn't be modkilled, just replaced. Grey said he would replace people during the first 4 days of the game. | ||
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Prom, I am also a 600AD character and I wasn't advertising to get into the party :o My role says nothing about getting a bonus to the modifier if I'm in the party when I'm in my correct time period, although I do get other bonuses ofc. | ||
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##Vote: syllogism | ||
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1) Dieno - as close to confirmed town as it gets. 2) marv - despite getting niggles day 1 from his reluctance to running for party leader AND he generally less aggressive attitude, I feel like his day 2 play is exactly what I expect from a town marv Not really sure about the last spot though. My gut says Acrofales is pretty obvious town because of the way he's been actively trying to solve the game, having discussions to clarify opinions with everyone he wants to talk about, etc etc. But, I'm not really very familiar with his town play much (mostly just reading ACME), nor his scum play at all. | ||
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On November 25 2012 10:43 goodkarma wrote: I also read Marv as town, but I don't know how I feel about him being put in a party. From what I've heard, he has a crazy good scum game, so perhaps choosing another person would be best... Also: Could you clarify once and for all what your early game comment about having a low success modifier was about? Can you clarify what you're asking? | ||
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Yes, but what question are you wanting me to answer? My role pm specifically says something to the effect that any party I'm in has a lower chance of success. | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:06 Dienosore wrote: Are you kidding? You can't possibly think of any reason why we might want Robo as party leader during his era? Well, I don't know anything about Chrono Trigger, so I can't imagine a reason why we would necessarily want him as party LEADER. I could definitely understand why we want him in the party though, since this is his era and he likely gets bonuses from it. | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:12 Oatsmaster wrote: Do you(everybody) agree with my proposed party? Why would you not take Dieno? | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:24 Acrofales wrote: To be fair, I don't know that I will screw up our chances of winning the event, but I'd rather not risk it. Are you saying you know that you have a low success modifier as well? | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:26 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont want to take Dieno because there is a high chance that he dies the next cycle so I want to make sure all my party members are ALIVE and kicking at the end. About marv, yeah his day 1 play worried me too but his 'excuse' was that he was not the most vet and that he wasnt comfortable in themed games, which is totally understandable. I am reading him mostly based on his day 2 play because I had a null read on day 1. Acro, you are being awfully opaque about why you do not want to be in the party, mind explaining? Also I think that I might want to take Syllo as that only leaves 2 contentious decisions. The host already confirmed that the event happens BEFORE night actions resolve, so even if ap arty member dies, it doesn't effect the outcome of the event. | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:27 Acrofales wrote: Lets just leave it at what I've said. I don't think there's any reason other that curiosity why anybody needs more information than I have given. Because your claim doesn't make sense. Remember this? On November 22 2012 05:42 Acrofales wrote: How the hell do you have any idea what your HIDDEN success modifier is? What CaveJohnson's post made me think of was 3rd party. I thought syllo was referring to the fact that a 3rd party didn't want to come along on the mission was "townie", because he at least cares enough about the town to warn them off. Now you're trying to portray that you being in a party could cause us to lose the event somehow. | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:35 Acrofales wrote: I didn't say you didn't WANT any more information, just that you don't NEED any more information. My goal right now is to get this mission over successfully. It is safer if you don't take me. I don't really WANT the information, nor do I NEED it. I don't really care one way or the other if you have a low success modifier or not. The way I look at it, though, you're insinuating that you have a low success modifier. Which doesn't make any fucking sense because of what I quoted you as saying earlier. That wouldn't have been your reaction had you known that you had a low modifier yourself. So, what's the deal? | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:53 Oatsmaster wrote: About choosing Marv as a party member. 15 page filter. Lotta 1 liners. This sounds extremely genuine and not at all what scum would do. He was the first to vote syllo. I think that the damage he took also shows that he isnt scum, Marv wasnt on anyone scumdar so therefore scum attacked him. About Chronicler, I also have no reason to doubt his claim on checking Toad and sandro. So. My Team is. Dieno Marv Chronicler AT THIS POINT This post is why I don't trust you as leader to pick a party. Marv was definitely on people's scumdar day 1. But marv is the kind of player that is likely to get shot anyways if he's town, even if 5-6 people think that he's scum. And there's still the possibility of third party KP that hit marv. You're just making a bad assumption as a reason to fit him into your team. And where did Chronicler come from? | ||
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On November 25 2012 11:59 Oatsmaster wrote: Explain why 3rd party would hit marv then.. Also what read do you have on Marv? Also anyone want to claim hitting marv? Chronicler came from his claim that Toad and Sandro are the same alignment Why WOULDN'T third party hit marv? There are tons of reasons why they could/would. 1) they thought marv was suspicious of them 2) they think marv has the ability to read them well enough to know that they aren't playing to their typical town game 3) they thought marv was scum. I'm sure there are plenty more plausible reasons. | ||
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On November 25 2012 12:04 Oatsmaster wrote: 3rd party wont hit marv because there are there are better people to hit. ok bad question but WHAT read do you have on Marv right now? I already said what read I have on marv. I believe that he is town, and I included him in my proposed party. Again, I'm not disagreeing with your read. I'm disagreeing with your reasoning. Your ability to read people is of utmost importance if you want to be leader, and if you're choosing people for such awful reasons that I can't really get behind you as a leader. | ||
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On November 25 2012 13:20 Z-BosoN wrote: Wow, so it seems sand was scum after all. well done, syllo. Right now I'm sticking with Keir. He's semi-confirmed town and knows what's up. I've had the same feeling about marv, he began the game playing uncompromisingly, but now his play has been much better. ##Vote Keirathi Also, is anyone not bothered by the fact that hopeless1der has not scumhunted at all this game? Unless you believe that Oats is lying about being Robo, I think that Oats and Dieno should be the two party members from last round that are in this party as well, rather than me or syllo. Oats because he's a Future era character and likely gets bonuses, and Dieno because he is very nearly 'confirmed' town, whereas neither myself nor syllo are. However, I'm not really sure which one should be voted as leader. I wasn't overly confident in either of their picks/reasonings behind them. | ||
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On November 25 2012 13:31 Acrofales wrote: Additionally, that's quite the epic frame, if it changes rolename as well. Liquid City. Never forget. | ||
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No. But in Liquid City, framer framed kush when role cop checked him. He returned Mafia Coroner, when he was just a VT. Basically, in a game with role cops, I think its quite common (or at least plausible) for framer to change the role name and faction, because without it then it is kind of worthless. So, I'm just saying your assertion doesn't hold weight, but the evidence is still overwhelming. | ||
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On November 25 2012 16:13 Djodref wrote: Most reasonable Party for this Cycle
Why in the world would we do that? Our primary goal this game is to kill Lavos. Winning events probably helps us do that in some way or another. Therefore we want to win every event possible, not leave townies out of them just to be "ballsy". | ||
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I'm not a medic, nor have I claimed to be one at all :o | ||
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On November 25 2012 17:10 Djodref wrote: I agree with you but we would be in a better position imo if all the mafia members are dead when Lavos is summoned. I'm confident enough in my reads to find two others town players and propose a team which could garantee the success of the event. If I can get town credit and two other guys get town credit at the same time, it really narrows the possibility for.mafia to hide for the next lynch event. For example, what do you think of the following Djodref as party leader Oats are Robo the almost confirmed town Clarity the new town player sticking to its obvious town meta and early supporter of a sandro lynch Insert player looking town here : I would have taken Acro but he doesn't want to be part of the team so I guess Marv should deserve this spot. Not fixed on the third player yet. I think winning the event is more imperative that having some more town reads. And, no offense, but I wouldn't vote for you for party leader anyways. | ||
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No. Never, ever. We have to win the events. We still have our wits to lynch scum, we don't need to risk event success for some "ballsy" play. | ||
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On November 25 2012 18:08 Djodref wrote: No offense taken. Also I respect your position. I'm favorable for a higher risk/higher reward play and I think that my idea deserves at least to be promoted. What do you think about avoiding to concentrate our assets on the newbies ? "Concentrating" them? Syllo has our only 'gift' so far. And we have no idea what it is, or what it does. Also, I'm not necessarily objecting having someone else be party leader other than the two of them. But I am 100% objecting to a party that doesn't contain both of them. | ||
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On November 25 2012 18:13 Djodref wrote: 1. I'm sure a vet would make a better use of the item than the newbie. But I have no idea of the relation between item/character. 2. Me neither but I assume that it is safer to trust the vets to take better decisions than the newbies to fight Lavos, regardless of their roles and abilities. You're making a lot of assumptions that don't make logical sense. It's quite possible that whatever the 'gift' is ONLY works on Lavos, in which case it doesn't matter WHO has it. Also, we don't even know that its something you can 'use' anyways. Maybe its just a buff to all abilities used against Lavos. Or maybe its a debuff on Lavos that does something else. You're assuming too much when you know absolutely nothing. | ||
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On November 25 2012 18:22 Clarity_nl wrote: I think if you list all the possibilities of what this "gift" might be, and then answer the question "if the gift is X, does it matter if it's on a vet or not?" odds are the answer will be yes most of the time, and even if it wasn't most of the time it would still have no downsides. The only BIG downside right now is that our two close-to-confirmed town are Oats and Dieno. Who are not vets. But the argument "you don't know enough to make that call" is a bit misplaced. I disagree with you almost completely. The only time I think it could really make any difference on vets vs newbies is if its something like "You get a free vig shot" or something that requires the newbie to make a read, where the might not be as experienced making those kinds of decisions. My opinion is that the gifts likely aren't anything like that. But again, we don't fucking know. This is all pointless setup speculation. | ||
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On November 25 2012 18:21 Djodref wrote: @Keir lets say that Oats gets the part leader today. Then we have Oats = confirmed town + important character + gift I don't want to lose all this if mafia ot Lavos kills him and I dont trust him to use the gift properly... For the record, I would gladly vote for a party with both Oats and Dieno as members but not as party leaders. Please also consider the fact that we cannot pick them again for the next event. The 'fact'? The stipulation today was that we could only use half of the members from the last party. Now, I will grant you that it's a possibility that there will be some new stipulation next event day, but again you're making the statement that its a fact, when it most certainly isn't. | ||
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On November 25 2012 18:29 Clarity_nl wrote: You disagree very strongly yet you name something that would be better on a vet than a non-vet..... Can you name something that would be better on a non-vet than a vet? Yes, I said I mostly disagreed and then listed the ONLY possibility that would make more sense on a vet than a non-vet. And yes, I can imagine gifts that are stronger for some roles than others. Perhaps something that would be more useful, on say, Frog than it would be on Joe Blow vet, in which case the gift would be better on a non-vet than a vet. Again, we have NO FUCKING CLUE what the gifts even do. THIS DISCUSSION IS POINTLESS. And AGAIN, I'm not against voting for someone other than Dieno/Oats as party leader. I am against a party that doesn't include both of them. Them being leader is just the most logical because their townieness isn't in question, while the other two people in the party are still wild cards. | ||
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On November 25 2012 18:38 Clarity_nl wrote: I disagree with that argument Djo because our medic roles also have an easier time deciding who to protect. This. | ||
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On November 26 2012 02:18 Djodref wrote: @marv When I look as my table with the different damage claims for today, I could say that the mafia went for a Dieno kill. Could you help me to assess iamp alignment ? iamp isn't acting anything like his town meta, and I agree with you that no rational town player would have healed him. But its possible there are other explanations, so it doesn't damn him to being scum. | ||
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On November 26 2012 02:31 risk.nuke wrote: Yes but generally people assume I have extra knowledge and this is how they tend to react (pickyourpoison) And CJ has the right of it. If acro is 1-shot he should had claimed immediately. And he did not push toad very hard. While I would normally agree with this, since today isn't a lynch day and we can do nothing about Toad today, I don't think its unreasonable to think he would have waited until tomorrow. In fact, I would have expected both of them to wait until tomorrow. THAT'S what I find weird. | ||
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On November 26 2012 02:36 Hopeless1der wrote: That doesn't sound like your super convinced toad is scum =\ What you quoted was in response to a question from Djo. It made sense in context, but if you're just looking through risk's filter, I guess you could take it as that. He said this a bit before though: On November 26 2012 00:04 risk.nuke wrote: Toad is definitely scum. Two players claiming copchecks. And sandroba had the framebus and he was roleblocked (unless he lied). As to your question, there is no failsafe way to kill him except dayvigs/lynch. | ||
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On November 26 2012 02:49 Clarity_nl wrote: He picked those two because one of them was going to flip. Thereby immediately confirming the other person's alignment (assuming no tampering) He picked them night 1. Before we even knew we were going to have a lynch day. | ||
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On November 26 2012 02:52 Clarity_nl wrote: My mistake. So many claimed night actions I should go make a list before I open my mouth again. I still don't think they're bad choices even for N1 though. Sandro was under scrutiny near the end of that cycle. Yea, but that's my point. He checked Sandro against TOAD? Why? What purpose did that serve? Why not against Dieno, the claimed Frog? Or against syllo, the person calling sandro scum and the direct counterwagon to sandro's leadership? | ||
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On November 26 2012 03:01 Clarity_nl wrote: Let me be devils advocate for a minute. Is it possible he just had a feeling about Toad and since it looked like Sandro would be lynched the following day it would be an easy way to check out Toad? Yes, it's possible. But, imagine for a minute that you are a Parity Cop. You check two people, and your result tells you that they are the same alignment. Even for mildly suspicious people, its a stretch to believe that you investigated two scum. The most likely (probability wise) explanation is that you checked two townies. | ||
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On November 26 2012 03:21 syllogism wrote: I think those may potentially affect mission success, but in the end best and most likely design is based primarily on mafia being included in the team. I do not think a mission can fail if there is no mafia included; that kind of hidden mechanics are simply not fun. The only possible, and still unfun, exception I can see would be some kind of one-shot mafia ability, but I think they would have used that on n1. In fact, I think the speculation revolving around whether we should include claimed characters or players with matching time period flavor is also misguided (dienosore and oats should be included because they were on a successful day 1 mission, although the roles do not hurt). So, in short, ignore hp/roles, unless the claims themselves make someone more likely to be town. I'm not sure I totally agree with that part. I am a 600 AD character, and therefore me being in the party night 1 granted me some useful bonuses. Dieno said he had a bonus night 1 that increased party chance of success (I believe?). The bonuses are generally pretty useful, I think. I'm not necessarily saying that we should always have someone claim the time period so that we can put them intot he group, but I see no reason to not put someone that we have a town read on AND its their time period into the group, just for the bonuses. | ||
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On November 26 2012 03:27 risk.nuke wrote: You made no argument, you simply rephrased what I said as an evil plot to exclude you from the party. We have no ideas how easy/hard it is to win a mission. Right now the general assumption is just that if one party member is mafia the party fails. But that doesn't make sense because then HMS would be useless. No it's not useless. For instance, I think the probable scenario is something like this: Normal Townies: 100 HMS High HMS Townies: 250 HMS Low HMS Townies: 40 HMS Normal Mafia: -300 HMS When the mission starts, if the total HMS value of the group is > 0, the event is successful. (These are obviously just made up numbers. Just an example for context.) | ||
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On November 26 2012 03:31 Dienosore wrote: I thought the general assumption was that my hidden modifier was boosted due to matching my role with the correct time period, enough so that I could potentially carry even if scum was on the team. Does your role PM say anything about it being boosted if you're in the party during your era? Mine doesn't, although I do get other bonuses when I'm in the party during my era. | ||
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On November 26 2012 03:55 TheChronicler wrote: I don't. Was kind of hoping someone had the ability to give ne gold or it was an event reward. Another reason I want on the team. So your ability costs gold. But you haven't gained any gold, nor do you know how to, but you got to use it? :o I'm confused. | ||
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On November 26 2012 06:49 Promethelax wrote: there is town kp flying around. Why not make people aware of scum in our midst? I don't get this at all Keir. While we don't have a lynch we do have other abilities which we can use to eliminate scum players. I guess you have a point. I wasn't really thinking about town abilities like kush had that can just flat-out kill someone. I can't really imagine there are a ton of those floating around though. But, things like Robo's 50 damage per night, or a town ability that does 200 damage, or whatever would be pointless to use on someone like Toad. I mean, I only have 3 reference points (mine, kush's, and sandro's), but those kind of abilities aren't likely to result in a kill. Therefore when we lynch scum, all the damage we did to him before he gets lynched is just wasted abilities. | ||
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##Vote: Oatsmaster | ||
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On November 26 2012 07:31 phagga wrote: Why? Scum would benefit in this situation when the thread derails/new candidates are brought forths, so I don't see the scum motivation in doing what GK did. Yes, I believe he is saying "how is doing that a null read, rather than a town read?" | ||
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On November 26 2012 07:47 Hassybaby wrote: No seriously, when's the voting supposed to end? ~24 hours. | ||
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On November 26 2012 07:52 Promethelax wrote: @8:00 kst tomorrow, almost exactly 24 hours So, so slow. I kid, I kid  | ||
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On November 26 2012 09:06 marvellosity wrote: That's a reasonable doubt imo, given the OP states the number is hidden, and my role PM says nothing about my hidden success number. Overall I think town makes the most sense but I really want to know why he's so eager not to be brought on the mission. The issue isn't whether it's reasonable to doubt my claim. You'll notice that I didn't jump on him for questioning me about it when he first asked the question. The issue is that TODAY, he's been saying it wouldn't be a good idea to take him to the party. The insinuation is that he, himself, has some kind of modifier to party success today. Which makes him questioning me about it on day 1 fishy as fuck. | ||
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On November 26 2012 09:31 marvellosity wrote: I'm assuming 3rd party because of the OP. 5 man mafia team would make the most sense numbers-wise (if this were a normal i'd absolutely expect 5), but because of the setup it could be skewed one way or another, it's pretty hard to tell. Really? I would have expected 6, if this were a normal game. I thought 3:1 ratio was the norm. | ||
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On November 26 2012 09:41 Hapahauli wrote: @ Prom Your recent defenses seem reasonable, so I'll drop things for now. Toad and Kita are far higher on the radar for me at the moment. Also I'm not too sold on the idea that Prom's "powerful" role makes him scummy. He didn't have to disclose his powers, and could have easily lied about them to make 'em seem more reasonable. Instead, he seems pretty forthcoming about things, and that doesn't seem scummy. Regarding the Party Is there a consensus on the party atm? Are we consolidating votes on Oats? Oats/Dieno/Clarity/Marv seems to be the consensus. | ||
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On November 26 2012 10:15 Hopeless1der wrote: I did not mention taking damage, because no one has targeted, to my knowledge (yet) Then why did you want healing, when there are people like Dieno who has taken 400+ damage and could actually USE the heal? | ||
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So you took...self inflicted damage? | ||
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On November 26 2012 10:20 Hopeless1der wrote: Keir, if you want me to comment on something specifically, point it out please. Hapa hasn't really requested my input on his read of me, and it's not like its for my benefit anyways. I specifically wanted to comment on the "mafia motivation" part. Maybe you could explain your thought process there, before I give what was my take on it. | ||
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On November 26 2012 16:28 Promethelax wrote: Man Syllo you sure managed to reply to my concerns in the last 45 minutes I've been gone. Glad to see you living up to your reputation as a good player. keir: hey mang! Do you feel that Acro's refusal to give his reasoning on being included in the party is a scum or a town tell? I don't particularly think it's a scum tell. Notice, I said I didn't particularly want to be included in the party during day 1. But combined with the rather weird circumstances around his role claim, things just don't make any sense without more information that he is unwilling to give. There's no way I would lynch him over Toad, so not in a super big hurry to make up my mind. Maybe things will be clearer by the next time we get to a lynch cycle. | ||
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On November 26 2012 16:45 syllogism wrote: Prom: for future reference, it's not a good strategy to berate me in every post, especially given what happened on day 1 and 2. That and telling fewer unnecessary lies should help in your future endeavours. You going to answer my question? Because I honestly have no idea what the fuck you're talking about. | ||
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On November 27 2012 03:00 Acrofales wrote: I agree that someone needs to make an argument for Clarity's towniness. I myself have a number of people I would prefer to have included ahead of Clarity. Particularly Djodref has been throwing me town vibes in spades, and TC's parity cop check feels 100% townie to me, even if I had my reservations before. I am back to TC being town. Besides having a generally townie attitude: | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:10 Hopeless1der wrote: We can vote syllo if I'm not mistaken. Also, I took 75 damage (not self-inflicted) I actually subscribe to Djo's line of thinking: we don't want to put all of our eggs into one basket, so to speak. AKA, I don't think its worth the risk to put TWO gifts on syllo. | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:22 Promethelax wrote: the party leader gets the reward (from what Syllo said). Do you think that taking Kier makes sense? We've, presumably, had bonuses every day because of Frog/Robo but would not have those in the end of time. Where does everyone get this assumption that we had a bonus to our success chances with an era-specific character in the party? There are OTHER bonuses (notice marv's), that you get for being in a party during your home era, but I see nothing to suggest your chances of success go up. | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:26 goodkarma wrote: Lol I'm guessing this has something to do with how we assume gifts work, which is completely unconfirmed at this point... You're right. If there are in fact gifts each cycle maybe syllo isn't the best choice. But neither is a deino who is confirmed to be wittled down a sizable chunk of HP. ##Unvote ##Vote: Clarity Not me? | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:31 goodkarma wrote: Since we have absolutely no idea how success rate is determined, why take any unnecessary risks? Until such a time where the actual mechanics for determining success are revealed, I prefer to take what Keir has told us at face value... You do realize I was in the night 1 party, right? | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:34 Promethelax wrote: are your abilities worth your low modifier? Objectively and not "oh man look at this cool thing I can do" Some are. If I was worried about the party selection, it would probably be best to leave me out of the party. But we have 5 people who have been in successful parties, including a party that I was in specifically. We could take the exact 4 people today as we had day 1, if we really wanted to. I don't see any reason to believe that that party wouldn't be successful today, when it was on day 1. So, I don't see much reason not to include me. | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:38 goodkarma wrote: But we don't know if our chance of success was lowered by your presence that night. If your low success modifier as described in your PM is to be trusted, then bringing you this time around might not be the best idea. Wat...? It says ANY party that I'm in has a lower chance of success. That's pretty straight forward wording, and I (not should anyone else) have any reason to believe that it didn't apply day 1 for some unknown reason. | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:47 goodkarma wrote: So let's say (hypothetically) bringing you night one took us from 100% to 70% success rate, but you succeeded. But it could have been something like from 100% success rate to 10% to but you succeeded. Same outcome, but very different likelihoods of success... We can continue to speculate on this, but it just doesn't make sense to me why we should bring you today since we don't know that we'll have the same outcome this time around as last time with you in the party. I'm pretty sure that the chance of party success isn't some % value roll of the dice. From OP: Town players will assist completion of an event and mafia players will count against. There are other hidden factors that contribute to this as well. Again, I think its much more likely that we're using some kind of zero-sum system for sucess values. Some people are high, some people are low, most people are in the middle, and mafia are negative. Then everyone in the party's value is added up, and if the sum is >0, then the party is successful. Some random roll of the dice would be insanely dumb, and I don't think GreyMisT is dumb. | ||
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Oats just can't be party leader. | ||
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On November 27 2012 10:06 Hapahauli wrote: I would like to run for party leader My party will be Dienosaur, Kei, and either Chronicler or Acro If you for whatever reason do not feel safe with Chronicler/Acro, I can add Oatsmaster in that slot. Why you can trust me I think the parties I proposed above are as near confirmed town as we can get in this situation. Given this player pool, you can trust me. Why? Because if we failed the mission, I would be holding a neon-sign saying "LYNCH ME." This is suicidal for me to do as scum. I see no reason to put 2 non successful party members in the party today (You, and Chronicler/Acro). And, you couldn't replace Acro/Chronicler with Oats. The only possible way you could replace them would be with syllo. | ||
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On November 27 2012 10:23 Hapahauli wrote: Well it will hurt him when town focus-fires him down next cycle. I think the point is that after we lynch Toad during the next lynch cycle, that we may never even HAVE another lynch cycle. Meaning that even if you outed yourself as scum, we wouldn't necessarily have a way to do anything about it. | ||
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On November 27 2012 10:31 Hapahauli wrote: I can't imagine that town collectively doesn't have enough abilities to dispatch of Toad in a cycle if we focus him down. I'd like to think that the game is balanced well enough that being 99.9% confirmed scum is pretty darn bad. Oh well. I'll be sitting here lonely and sad since I'm not going to be included on the mission. =( | ||
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EBWOP: Somehow what I said got mixed into the quote rather than being at the end. I'm not saying I'm particularly opposed to you as a party member. We have to include 1 "new" person. Just saying that you "running" for party member doesn't confirm you as town on the merit of "why would scum out himself like that". | ||
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For now: ##Vote: Keirathi | ||
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On November 27 2012 11:01 Dienosore wrote: Here is my relationship history and reading of marv. Consider it a sort of tribute. D1: Under heavy fire from Phagga/Acro. Suspected Kitaman/Phagga/Goodkarma/CaveJohnson of being scum D2: Still taking heavy fire from Promethelax. Was also suspected by Keir/Toad. Suspected CaveJohnson/Kita/Toad of being scum. D3: No longer accused as mafia by anyone. Was extra friendly towards Hapa/Syllo/Adam/Djod. Flat out calls CaveJohnson a scumlord, strongly suspects Hopeless and Acro, and calls out Kitaman as 3rd party. What can we tell from this? Well, we can safely say that Marv was convinced CaveJohnson is scum. He also was convinced Kita is 3rd party. His only real public enemy was Prome. Going to start my D4 map. I think with this much info to cross-reference, I'll finally be able to put together a pretty solid post discussing some reads. Wat? I seem to remember marv arguing pretty vehemently with Kita, who wanted to lynch CaveJohnson, because he didn't think CJ was showing clear scum mentality rather than just playing like drazerk. I'll reread, but I don't remember him changing his opining on CJ after that. | ||
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On November 27 2012 11:15 Djodref wrote: By the way, I've decided that I'm not going to run for party leader for a change today But I'm proposing myself as a possible party member. Please keep in mind that marv and syllo have town read on me. Anyway, an ideal party for today should be -> 3 players among Dieno, Syllo, Keir, and Oats. I would recommend Dieno as a party leader because he hasn't received a gift yet and I would put Keir aside because of his "low success modifier" confession. Shall we organize a vote to decide of the fourth party member ? We only have to find this fourth guy today so we may as well do it this way. Dieno and Oats can't both be in the party. We can use 3 "already been to the party" people, and 2 of them have to be me and syllo. The third can be anyone between Dieno/Clarity/Oats, but Oats can't be leader. | ||
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On November 27 2012 11:34 Djodref wrote: Yeah, you're right. Sorry I didn't put time to really think it through. I have no strong opposition as you as a party leader, Keir. I would prefer to have Dieno as a party leader today but I'm not going to vote for him if he keeps TC in his party. I don't think that TC is scum anymore but I'm not comfortable with the idea of having him in a party. Do you have any objections to have Dieno as a party leader ? Could you give us a pool of players in which you would select the fourth new member, if you were to be elected ? No, I don't have objections to Dieno as party leader. He said earlier that he doesn't particularly care either way, because he doesn't get any bonus for being party leader (other than the gift). And I'm working on narrowing down my short-list. It will be posted as soon as I'm comfortable with it. | ||
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On November 27 2012 11:50 Acrofales wrote: And third party? People not thinking this through and drawing premature conclusions are making me sad. Care to share why you refused to be in the party yesterday? And @TheChronicler: Why did you check Acro vs Hopeless? Again, you check 2 people that don't really make much sense. With your current check, either Acro OR Hopeless could be scum. It would have made much more sense to check one or the other against someone like Dieno or Oats who are nearly confirmed town. | ||
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On November 27 2012 12:06 Hapahauli wrote: And damnit someone comment on the Prom stuff I've been posting. Surely I'm not the only one who's finding him scummy as shit right now. There was no lynch. I don't particularly see a problem with your whole "He wasn't pushing his scum read" thing when he had no avenue for getting you killed. There are a lot of people that aren't pushing scum reads and you're just singling him out because he said he didn't want you in the party. FWIW, I have a very slight town read on Prom. Not enough to bet on it or anything, but that's the way I'm leaning right now. And I still wouldn't ever lynch him over toad, and someone out of the whole TC/Acro/Hopeless debacle. | ||
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I find it strange that rather than asking me to expand on my town read on Prom, you decided it would be a better idea to repeat to me your reasonings that he is scum. Like I wasn't able to read them 15 posts ago. | ||
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For one, the day 2 "gambit" that secured sandroba's lynch (at least for me). Town Prom loves pulling silly gambits that have the potential to backfire horrendously (just look at his two gambits in ACME; they were terrible and got townies lynched [no offense prom]). The whole "sandroba: why did you target syllo" is definitely something town Prom would do. And the reason I don't think scum Prom would have done it is because of his scum play in newbie XIX. He played all-or-nothing for the entire game, and by the end was entirely linked with both of his partners. I'm sure he's a better player now than he was then, and sandro could have said "Hey Prom, bus me!" in scum QT, but my gut is still that that isn't the way he would have done it. All-in-all, minor town read. I think your points mostly are a factor of being in a game that hasn't had much in the way of lynching rather than a necessarily scum mindset. There are tons of people who haven't made cases or pushed anyone. You're just confirmation bias'ing again him, imo. | ||
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On November 27 2012 12:49 Hopeless1der wrote: I think we've decided that our Party leader is going to be one of our previous party members. Oats cannot lead. That leaves:
Only one of Dienosore and Oatsmaster can be on the party due to setup restrictions. Oatsmaster and Syllogism have already led a party before and have items to show for it. I believe the leaders receive an item upon a successful mission completion. Either we try to pool resources to one player (i.e. syllo today) or we divvy up the spoils among as many players as possible while maintaining a successful party. I don't like the idea of powering up one player for a number of reasons: Scum might be able to steal items Items may be lost upon death The player may in fact be scum I'd prefer syllo and oats not be in the party at all because they currently hold items, but if we can't identify a 4th for the team, I'd pick dieno over oats and have syllo step in to fill the last spot. My choice for party leader is one of Keir, Dieno and Clarity. As I've already stated, I'd like to be included in the party. If any of them are inclined to give me the 4th spot, I'd be delighted and they will receive my vote. In the meantime, I'm fine sheeping the current votelead on Keir. ##Vote: Keirathi Also, I hereby state that I won't put a last-minute voteswitch onto Toad today, in case anyone suspects shenanigans. Care to explain the bolded? | ||
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On November 27 2012 12:51 Hapahauli wrote: I'm not getting what you're saying here. Prom did vote Sandro, but very late and only after a bunch of players lead the charge on Sandro. I'm saying that if Prom is scum, I don't think he would have used that kind of claim to bus sandro. He would have just made a case and bussed, or maybe even just voted. But his first instinct is to protect his teamates, not out them to the thread. | ||
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On November 27 2012 13:05 Hapahauli wrote: Wait do you mean "bussing" or do you mean "opposing" the Sandro campaign? Because I really don't understand what you're saying unless you're talking about this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=40#795 I just stumbled across it and it does give me pause. I'm not sure what motivation Prom would have about tearing down Sandro's campaign at this stage of the game. Sandro's campaign wasn't doing all that bad at this point. On a side note, I really need to go back and look over the votes from D1. That's something that's been pretty absent from our analysis thusfar. I'm talking about day 2. Sandro claimed that he was roleblocked, and Prom said "Sandro, why did you target syllogism?" Then Sandro answered that he used Shadow on syllogism. That was a major factor in me voting for Sandro, because at the time, I thought Prom was implying that he was some kind of watcher/tracker, and that Sandro had targetted Syllo even though he claimed to be roleblocked and was therefor lying. Then, of course, Prom explained his ability the next day, and it was nothing like that, just a gambit/hunch that sandro had targetted syllo. Now, does that seem like a normal way to bus, if your scum team is telling you to bus in the QT? I don't. It would have been much more natural to either just sheep onto the wagon or make up a case. | ||
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On November 27 2012 13:25 Hapahauli wrote: Ohhhh. So Hopeless is scum then. Well guess my last thing on him was quite wrong then. I'm pretty on the fence about which one of the two are scum. I mean, a case can definitely be made for Hopeless being scum. Hell, they HAVE been made. But I could make a case that Acro is scum too :o Not to mention the fact that TC checked Acro vs Hopeless is weird as fuck to begin with. | ||
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On November 27 2012 13:31 Hapahauli wrote: Well the check makes sense given Hopeless's rather strange attitude toward Acro (and Z-Bo). Given the two, I'd take Acro as the townie in a heartbeat. There is of course the outside chance that there's a mafia-framer type ability somewhere, but thankfully all this is after we lynch Toad ofc. Yes, checking Hopeless makes sense. Checking him against someone who's still an "unknown" rather than against one of the near-confirmed town people is what doesn't make sense. Why not check him against, say, Dieno? And there are just too many weird things about Acro for me to ignore. | ||
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On November 27 2012 13:37 Hapahauli wrote: Do tell. To me he seems pretty engaged with things. I don't know what he's capable of as scum, but his filter looks pretty townie at first glance. First, the whole One-Shot Role Cop with a red check on Toad, but doesn't claim it until AFTER TC comes in claiming a parity check with Toad being scum. One-Shot Cop with a red check is an insanely easy way to claim towncred, especially if your teammate has already been outed and likely to be lynched. I will admit that he could have just been thinking "oh, there's no lynch today, so no real reason to claim right now" if he was town and then only claimed he also had a red check on Toad because TC had already claimed. It's hard to determine which one is more likely though, so its a minor point, but I'm paranoid Then, he refused to be put into the party yesterday. And refuses to explain why. I'm not the only one who thought that was fishy. Again, a minor point, but it makes me second guess my earlier town read, because I don't see much motivation for a person who knows that he is town to flat out refuse to be in the party, without giving some kind of explanation. And then, of course, the parity check. Like I said, none of the things in and of themselves are super strong points, but how many little "weird, logically improbable" things does it take before that person becomes scum? | ||
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On November 27 2012 14:06 iamperfection wrote: You get a message saying you were healed if you are healed What if you were healed and take damage in the same night though? Like, for instance, if you take a 100 damage shot, and are healed for 50, does your message say "You were hit for 100. You were healed for 50. You lose 50 hp" or does it just say "You lose 50 hp"? | ||
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On November 27 2012 14:29 iamperfection wrote: You get message saying you were healed it never says by how much My question didn't rely on knowing how much you get healed for. The question is, if you get healed and take damage in the same night, are you notified of both, or only of the net effect? | ||
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Me, syllo, Oats, Djodref | ||
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On November 27 2012 14:56 syllogism wrote: Prom any idea why you took only 25 damage when I tried to hit you for 75? Since you didn't answer me last night, can you do a rundown on your "Prom is scum" case? | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:01 syllogism wrote: Why is everyone so focused on Prom's second claim, when his first claim explains quite clearly how he knew Marvel visited me? Did anyone besides Prom get roleblocked today? What was his first claim? Where? | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:02 goodkarma wrote: This is a party I find completely acceptable. Apparently no one else is too worried about your low success modifier... I'll cross my fingers and hope that the success determination mechanic is similar to what you've said + Show Spoiler + (I find it consoling that the more I think about it the more unlikely it feels that it's anything like what I proposed...) ##Unvote ##Vote: Keirathi Final answer. And in case you're wondering, the largest reason is satisfaction with your party selection. Confirming Djo as town is a good move. My powers aren't THAT good. But based on th OP, I see no reason not to take me if we are reasonably sure the last person is town. Plus, we're kind of forced into taking me now since only one person from yesterday can go, unless you want to take 2 unknowns instead of me and one unknown. | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:09 Dienosore wrote: How would you feel about me as leader, and we boot out Djodref? I wouldn't mind backing you up normally, but I really think I can repair my sword if I win a challenge as the leader. Can't boot out Djo. You would have to replace Oats, because you can't both be in the party. Doesn't matter a ton to me either way, but I think it's more likely that you would repair your sword in the correct era than in the End of Time, but that's just speculation and who really knows. | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:10 syllogism wrote: Okay, fine. I've an ability that roleblocks+tracks at the same time. Prom initially claimed tracking sandro to me even though sandro was roleblocked. Marvel was roleblocked n1 and Prom definitely knew that he targeted me. The much more likely explanation for him knowing is that he simply has the same ability I do. If you are more willing to instead believe that his other claimed abiltiy, which roleblocks everyone who attempts to target his target and in addition makes some kind of damage shield, I guess there's that. His actions and justifications for them make no sense whatsoever for town. My problem is: where did he claim he was tracker? That's the part I'm missing and can't find. | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:17 syllogism wrote: He said he 'knew which way Sand was pointing when he was Rb'd'. His claim has evolved multiple times since then. Why would you even assume on n1 that the only roleblocked people just happened to visit me? Put yourself in his shoes. You have an ability that roleblocks anyone who targets your target, and you use it night one on a generally accepted strong town player who just won a mayoral election. Then the next day, two people, also known as strong players, claimed to be roleblocked. I don't think its a super unreasonable gambit to guess that they were both targeting you. | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:25 syllogism wrote: Whatever, just read Hapa's case on him and his reactions to my suspicions. There is no way he is town. I can't believe how difficult it is to convince you people that someone who claimed something might be mafia. I'm not saying that it's impossible that he's mafia. Hapa's case definitely has merit. Yours doesn't, though. Also, like I already said, we have 2 red checks to deal with first, and who knows if we'll even have 3 more lynches. | ||
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On November 27 2012 15:28 syllogism wrote: Wait, Prom now says his ability only roleblocks the first person who targets the player he targets and it doesn't block mafia KP? Now that you mention it, I'm not sure about the KP thing. I remember him saying he asked the GreyMisT if his roleblocks would prevent faction KP and Grey said it didn't, but I asked GreyMisT the same question as soon as Prom first claimed his ability and I never got an answer. | ||
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You're right, that last statement doesn't jive with the rest of what he had been saying, so maybe I'm wrong. I'm still not sure we'll actually get 3 more lynches though, and I'm much more convinced that Toad and one of Acro/Hopeless are scum. | ||
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On November 27 2012 16:45 syllogism wrote: Djodref why are you answering for him? Actually you know what, I'm done for a few days. There are no active town aligned players left in the game who make even a modicum amount of sense. It's not like we can lynch these people anytime soon and the game is going to take forever given that we are still only in 2300 AD. Why did you have to be mafia sandro For the love of god I hope you are wrong just so that I can rub this quote in your face post-game. Your elitist attitude is bullshit. You haven't proven that Prom is mafia, and you're not even going to fight for it? Honestly I'm glad you're checking out if that's the best you can do. | ||
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On November 27 2012 17:40 Promethelax wrote: Oats: if Syllo had not been on the mission d1 yes, I would have a huge scum read on him for his play. As it is I know that the razor of truth suggests town but there are some contradictions in his play (saying that people who go on successful quests should not be considered confirmed town/calling himself confirmed town for being on a successful quest)and the general tunnelness of his attacks on me. Syllo: why did you not RB/damage someone d1? You claim to have a RB/Track ability and a damaging ability and that you used them in the same night (something I believe) so why didn't you use them n1? (as evidenced by only my roleblocks going through). OH! That's probably what syllo's problem is. He rb'd sandroba night 1. It all makes sense now. | ||
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On November 27 2012 17:49 Clarity_nl wrote: I am running for party leader Why not Dieno or Oats? The answer is simple, I am still full hp! Meaning any item or ability or whatever we might get after a mission will go to the right person! Why not Syllo? He already has an item of sorts (or so he's claimed) so it's probably best to not put him up there again. We don't know what kind of protective roles we have but so far there have only been heals and damage preventions, but not 100% damage preventions. Meaning if scum REALLY want someone dead, they can make it happen in a cycle or two. Putting both our "items" on Syllo would be irresponsible. What is my suggested party? I (Clarity) will be your brave leader. Please not that I cannot take Oats and Dieno with me, since marv died only 1 person out of the original 4 from last party can be taken, and that would be me. Syllo, Party leader Cycle one, which was successful. That in combination with his mentality he has displayed all game I am willing to say I am certain he is town. Keirathi, he was also present in the cycle one party, despite him claiming he had a "low succes modifier". This time around he's claiming he is extra useful this mission and I have no real reason to disbelieve him. Phagga/Hapa/Djodref, one of these would be my final pick for my party. Which one? I am currently undecided. I will figure out who I would pick and then take the town's temperature on it and see where we stand. I am confident that we can make the right choice! I'm not claiming I'm extra useful this mission :o I get my mission bonuses in 600AD. But none of my powers can be used unless I'm in the party. And it would be beyond dumb not to include me today anyways :p | ||
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On November 27 2012 22:30 syllogism wrote: I apologize if I've seemed hostile or arrogant. I do not have confidence in myself, but rather I honestly think the facts speak for themselves. I did not expect having to argue against almost certain townies who also know that I'm town. I believe that some people are being obnoxiously dismissive of what I consider a reasonable argument. I'm struggling to understand why not only do people strongly disagree, but instead of letting the person in question defend himself they feel the need to make arguments for him. I may have somewhat overstated the case, but you should be asking Prom more questions instead of arguing with me. You do have a reasonable argument, although I think Hapa's is stronger. But you completely ignored my counter-argument of why I had been thinking Prom was town (granted, I said it to Hapa rather than you, but point still stands). I just don't see how the "facts" damn him to being scum. I see a possible scum explanation, and a possible town explanation, and I don't plan for this to turn into the "Shut up and sheep Syllo" show. It was like pulling teeth to even get you to explain to begin with. I'm not sure which direction I would lean on Prom right now. right now. Mostly null, I guess. But again for the millionth time, HE'S NOT A PRIORITY TARGET. WE HAVE TWO RED CHECKS TO DEAL WITH FIRST. | ||
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On November 28 2012 02:38 Acrofales wrote: Really? I was in danger of being lynched? I want some of what you're smoking. Votes on Acro D2: 0. People who wanted to take me to the prom D3: 2 claimed before I put an end to it. The next lynch is pretty much locked in on Toad, so I didn't have to fear that either. When exactly was I in ANY danger of being lynched?! I was clearly suspected of being scum. Only person who even voiced that was Syllo and he said it without having read my filter. Stop throwing suspicion around unwarranted. Anyway, who said that I would have played WORSE? I would probably have played a lot SAFER. Like, I would not have looked so ridiculously townie that people wanted to take me along for the ride on D3, forcing me to claim I didn't want to. So. Why are you misrepresenting what happened just to be suspicious of me? In fact, what have you DONE this game? Are you the guy who has to kill me? Hey, you forgot about me! In all seriousness, I'm not really sure what to do about you. I mentioned the things I found off about your play this game to Hapa. And third party could definitely explain them. My problem, of course, is that so could scum. In a game with a limited amount of lynches, as it seems, third party survivor makes a ton of sense for scum to fake-claim. Anyways, does your role PM specifically mention someone "hunting" you, so to speak? If so, why the hell did you claim at all? If not, why is your default assumption that there is someone looking for you? | ||
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On November 28 2012 03:48 Acrofales wrote: The cat WAS out of the bag. Speculation or not, there were at least 3 people thinking I was 3P. Scumteam probably already had it figured even earlier. Djodref basically phrased his question oddly, but he did ask me whether I was 3P. Saying no would have made things worse if I ever have to claim in the future, which was looking increasingly likely with the parity check. The parity check alone also weighed in on my decision. Better to claim 3P now and get that evidence off the table against Hopeless1der. I think he's scum. I think he should be killed. But I don't want people killing him because of your check, and I definitely don't want people going after ME if he were to flip town. Claiming 3P afterwards would have looked terrible. "Scum trying to get out of being lynched" would be the first thing that would come to my mind if I were townie having mislynched one side of a parity check. I really want that excuse out of the way. Also, go ahead and check me against Toad if you don't believe me. I would be much obliged. He's said MULTIPLE times that he's out of gold to use for checks.... | ||
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On November 28 2012 04:00 Hapahauli wrote: The 0.1% chance is in the event that he got double-framed or something. Super super unlikely yes, but just acknowledging the remote possibility. You seem to be arguing semantics though, since I wouldn't dream of lynching/killing anyone else before him. I assume you meant Acro in that first sentence, not Toad, right? | ||
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On November 28 2012 04:15 Acrofales wrote: Keirathi: I just reread your posts. What in my interactions with Hapa has been weird. In fact, I can't even remember having any significant interactions with Hapa at all. I have to admit that I have payed little attention to Hapa this game. I was on high alert D1 when he suddenly went nuts and wanted to run for leader at the last moment. I then reread him to see if I wanted to lynch him and decided I didn't. I dismissed him as someone to be figured out later. That later has not yet happened. Nono, I meant I pointed out to Hapa last night the reasons that I thought that between you and Hopeless, I wasn't positive that you were the one that was town. But you either didn't read it, or didn't consider it to have credible points, because you commented on sandro having a scum read on you but didn't mention me. | ||
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On November 27 2012 13:49 Keirathi wrote: First, the whole One-Shot Role Cop with a red check on Toad, but doesn't claim it until AFTER TC comes in claiming a parity check with Toad being scum. One-Shot Cop with a red check is an insanely easy way to claim towncred, especially if your teammate has already been outed and likely to be lynched. I will admit that he could have just been thinking "oh, there's no lynch today, so no real reason to claim right now" if he was town and then only claimed he also had a red check on Toad because TC had already claimed. It's hard to determine which one is more likely though, so its a minor point, but I'm paranoid Then, he refused to be put into the party yesterday. And refuses to explain why. I'm not the only one who thought that was fishy. Again, a minor point, but it makes me second guess my earlier town read, because I don't see much motivation for a person who knows that he is town to flat out refuse to be in the party, without giving some kind of explanation. And then, of course, the parity check. Like I said, none of the things in and of themselves are super strong points, but how many little "weird, logically improbable" things does it take before that person becomes scum? | ||
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On November 28 2012 04:20 Hapahauli wrote: Btw Kei, do you agree with me on Acro or not (regarding mafia motivation for his case on Toad)? Occam's Razor says yes, you are right. I could make other assessments, but I don't feel like they are particularly super likely, nor constructive. But his claim with the assumption that someone is "hunting" him just doesn't make sense. | ||
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On November 28 2012 04:54 TheChronicler wrote: I'm an idiot. ? | ||
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On November 28 2012 05:00 Clarity_nl wrote: I realize and I would prefer that over Dieno, although obviously not over myself. I think the votes on Dieno are misguided. Like people don't want to think about it anymore, laziness Dieno has also claimed that he has been healed significantly enough to where he doesn't feel he's in much danger of dying, and he was under the impression that the gift item was lore related, and would therefor give him his Masamune. | ||
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On November 28 2012 05:04 Clarity_nl wrote: Oats also claimed his item had nothing to do with lore... Right. But not before people had already started voting Dieno. And I don't think Dieno has been back yet? I'm not sure, and too lazy to go back and look because it really doesn't matter that much who is the party leader other than Oats/Syllo. | ||
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On November 28 2012 06:03 Dienosore wrote: I definitely don't feel like I can just sit around, regardless of whether or not the game will fix it for me. Simply, I'm afraid I wont last that long since we seem to be creeping through the story line. My only other lead so far are these ultra mysterious items. On the other hand, I'm aware I could be completely wrong about it and the item is just a potion or something dumb like that. Either way, I promise to expose what the item is and everyone gets some knowledge. So... win/win? No. No no no. You explaining what the item is doesn't help town at all, and only gives mafia information about how much to prioritize killing the people who have them. You should never, ever say what the item is/does. | ||
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On November 28 2012 06:07 Dienosore wrote: I agree with you, Keir should be on the mission. My current proposed group is Oats/Keir/Syllo How many times do we have to tell you: YOU CAN'T TAKE OATS. You and Oats cannot both be in the party today. | ||
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On November 28 2012 06:53 Toadesstern wrote: I voted for myself. I think I should be party leader. Also I have to make sure to post once in a while! Hello guyses. Teehee. | ||
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On November 28 2012 09:19 VisceraEyes wrote: @Hapahauli Your observation about Prom's opinion of you is compelling. How convinced are you of this Acro connection you're seeing re: the Toad case? Let's assume Toad flips third party as you suspect: who would you rather lynch? Prom or Acro? It really doesn't do us any good if your one post per day is going to be so blatantly misconstrued. We get it, you're not reading the thread. | ||
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On November 28 2012 09:38 Acrofales wrote: Agreed. I made that case already. I do admit that it came in the middle of my drunk spamming spree, so I don't blame anybody for missing it: You were drunk when you posted that? No wonder your reading comprehension skills were so bad | ||
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On November 28 2012 09:42 Acrofales wrote: I see I kinda fubar'd it up too. My point was: the post is way too carefully phrased to be a townie who thinks he was framed or I were scum. Seeing that check as a townie, the first thing that would come to my mind is "Hopeless1der is scum". Lets yell that as loud as I can. What we CAN see from H1's post is that he does NOT consider 3p, therefore he *should* be yelling this at the top of his lungs. A simple: ok, TC, your check means Acro is scum or I was framed. The very lack of that is just extremely telling. Combine that with all the overly careful wording and we have a scum who cannot for the life of him imagine how a townie would react and posts this drivel instead. The way I read his post is "So, TC has a parity check on me and Acro. Either TC is lying about his check and is scum, or Acro is scum." That seems like a pretty reasonable attitude to me. There are tons of other things in Hopeless' filter that point to the possibility of him being scum, but I don't think that is it. | ||
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On November 28 2012 09:45 Acrofales wrote: My managing to properly express my thoughts was a bit of a failure, but fairly certain I got the reading part spot on. My point is, a big part of your post calling his response out was how you seemed to think he said "One of us is scum" when it actuality he said "One of THEM is scum", meaning you or TC. | ||
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On November 28 2012 09:49 Acrofales wrote: Ahhhh. I may have been missing that because I had a very strong town read on TC from the Toad check. I guess that makes more sense now Yea, like I said, I think that's a perfectly normal townie reaction. To not just say "Yea, I'm town so Acro is scum guyz!!1!!!1!", but to be suspicious of both the cop who claimed the check and the person you were checked against. Again, there are definitely things in his filter that make me scratch my head, but that isn't one of them. | ||
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zzzzzz | ||
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By that I mean, you can only pick one out of Dieno/Clarity/Oats. Not 2 of them. | ||
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On November 29 2012 04:03 Clarity_nl wrote: Hmmm, perhaps a fair point but the only "tracking" we've seen so far was prome's seed thing, right? But that blocks everyone targeting him including town kp though. Syllo claimed to be roleblocker+tracker. | ||
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On November 29 2012 05:12 Hapahauli wrote: [/big]big] We have to try to kill Toad tonight! Any other ideas are fucking retarded. We don't know when the next lynch cycle is, and we can't risk leaving him alive forever. Furthermore, there's a good chance we can kill him - we don't know if he's at full heath or not, and there's a decent chance that we have enough collective damage to dispatch of Toad at full health. Even if we get a lynch tomorrow (which we have no way of knowing), having toad potentially alive would be really bad. We would not get any discussion done. Good god no. Don't be fucking stupid Hapa. We already know that scum had a bus driver. H1 claimed an ability that makes him completely untargetable. We have no idea what kind of protective roles scum could have. By making that claim, you've basically guaranteed that they'll use everything at their disposal to keep him alive, and waste what...2? 3? 4-5? town abilities in the process. It may have been a good idea if you didn't scream for everyone to do it, but now its just god awful retarded. | ||
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On November 29 2012 05:51 CaveJohnson wrote: [/big]We have already gone through this its not smart play to keep toad alive. I don't disagree with the theory. It would be nice if this was a normal game and we knew that we actually had a shot to kill him. But there are too many unknowns to use so many abilities on a CALLED TARGET. It gives mafia all the information to stop it. Let's say he does end up surviving, and we use 4 abilities. Then we still waste the next lynch cycle, AND we're down 4 possibly 1 shot abilities. An even worse scenario is something like a reflection shield, so not only does he not die, but all the townies who shot him take damage too. | ||
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##Vote: Toadesstern | ||
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On November 30 2012 02:48 Promethelax wrote: It does matter, yes. It may give me a clue as to his alignment. How would it give you a clue to his alignment if he decided to smurf BEFORE he got his role? :o Also back, catching up. On my phone so hard to make big posts. | ||
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On November 30 2012 02:53 Acrofales wrote: Seems easy enough: don't take Dieno, don't take Keirathi. Syllo, Oats, Clarity and Chronicler seems like a pretty good party. Chronicler gets to use his 1-shot ability and if one of the members gets killed, that still leaves 3 townie players who have not mentioned any low HSM shenanigans. Syllo, you agree? Get your party PM ready, and don't you dare herpaderp it up like a certain extinct reptile. ##unvote ##Party Leader Syllo You went from voting me as leader to not even putting me in the party? Boggle. Also I thought we were against the whole "stack gifts on one person" thing? | ||
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That's a huge flip-flop with zero reasoning :o | ||
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Of course I do. And I'm looking at your filter right now. Between the time that you voted me, and the time that you excluded me, you didn't talk any about this HP or HSM stuff. Then bam, just changed your mind. And called the HSM stuff "shenanigans" without any reasoning whatsoever. Anyways, I find it hard to believe that an all townie team can lose an event under any situation, no matter how many people are still alive. That kind of system just doesn't make sense. But I guess it could be a possibility. | ||
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On November 30 2012 05:19 Clarity_nl wrote: Keirathi: Acro was talking about his "Funky HSM" but if I remember correctly this was only the case in 600 AD. Keir will have to correct me on this if I'm wrong. He also claimed to have abilities available if he is in the party. Incorrect. My HSM deal doesn't have anything to do with the time period. I get bonus abilities if I'm in the party during my own era (600 AD), or if I'm elected party leader. | ||
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He's scum that has been caught. It would 100% make sense for him to lie about unverifiable things. | ||
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On November 30 2012 07:41 Hapahauli wrote: No I really don't. I didn't get healed and that's a fact. The issue I'm having is that a bunch of players are sitting around and pondering it without making a decision on it. The attitude seems to be "hmmm this could possibly maybe be suspicious I think." No one's come to a conclusion, and quite frankly I'm sick of being discredited for telling the truth about my night actions. How about this for a "conclusion". The most logical explanation is that either you were lying about taking damage, or Clarity was lying about healing you. Clarity is pretty obviously town, so I don't think he's lying. That leaves you. You are probably scum. There are some possible outside explanations (an ability that makes you untargetable and the person targeting you isn't notified of that; host error) that don't seem particularly likely. You haven't really jumped out at me as super-pro townie though, which is probably partly an effect of your lesser time availability, but the combination of the two has me leaning scum on you. | ||
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On November 30 2012 08:58 iamperfection wrote: whens the deadline 2 min? 23 hours :o | ||
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My abilities rely on my being in them. Otherwise, I'm just a VT. Hell, not even a VT; WORSE than a VT because people don't want to include me to parties even though they believe that I am town. So Keir, why did you publicly claim you had a low success value?!? Well, for one, it's the truth. But, on day 1, someone asked "Why would anyone who is a townie not want to be in the party?" and I just answered honestly because I had already been thinking about it. I wasn't intending to claim, but it was obvious in hindsight that I had information about party success. At the time, I was under the impression that it would take 2 scum party members for a party to fail an event, and I wasn't sure that 2 townies + my low HSM + a scum would succeed or fail, and I didn't particularly want to test it. And if an event DID fail that I was in, it would have been hard to come in after the fact and say "Wait, I'm town! I have a low success modifier though..." Anyways screw this role. It's no fun to be a less-than-VT in a game full of neat roles. | ||
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On December 01 2012 03:48 syllogism wrote: I think sandroba roleblocked me n2 if actions and lynch are processed simultaneously. I do not believe risk was roleblocked or if he was, it was by a third party for no apparent reason. It is certainly extremely unlikely for mafia to roleblock risk over some of the claimed roles. It's possible that he was roleblocked by a town aligned roleblocker, but I've asked the person in question to claim and I think he would have. I didn't know about drazerk claiming roleblock n3 though. It's possible that there are roles that have a passive/active ability that roleblocks anyone who visits them or something, I suppose. In the interest of sharing, I'll claim the roleblock on your n2. I got to use a 150 HP jailkeep for being in the party cycle 1. | ||
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No, it just protects against 150 HP of damage. | ||
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On December 01 2012 04:49 Acrofales wrote: I tried. It doesn't seem to have the option to switch comments off. If you like I can copypaste the thing to the thread and switch it back to private. It'll just be a giant mess. Oh, I thought you already did it. When I click the "Comments" button, it says 'You do not have permission to add comments.' I'm assuming only people able to edit it have access to comments, aka only you in this situation. | ||
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On December 01 2012 06:22 Clarity_nl wrote: I understand what you were saying when it came to the assumption, I just wanted to clarify. The way you said it seemed liked "No, my thing isn't an assumption, yours is! Because mine is more likely" In your line of thinking, the first two cycles are pretty damning for hapa (due to process of elimination, there has to be a scum "out there") but how do you feel about his play for the last week? He's not even suggesting he should be on the party. He wanted to be party leader just LAST CYCLE. On November 27 2012 10:06 Hapahauli wrote: I would like to run for party leader My party will be Dienosaur, Kei, and either Chronicler or Acro If you for whatever reason do not feel safe with Chronicler/Acro, I can add Oatsmaster in that slot. Why you can trust me I think the parties I proposed above are as near confirmed town as we can get in this situation. Given this player pool, you can trust me. Why? Because if we failed the mission, I would be holding a neon-sign saying "LYNCH ME." This is suicidal for me to do as scum. Remember? | ||
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On December 01 2012 06:30 Clarity_nl wrote: I actually did not remember that. Dunno how I read over that twice. How do you feel about his "if we fail it's obviously me and I'd never do this as scum"? It's a bullshit argument because we have no idea how many lynches we will get before the end of the game, and we already had two red checks at the time that had to be taken care of (ofc, that was before Acro claimed 3p). | ||
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Too many things not adding up with Hapa. I think it's pretty likely that he is scum at this point. | ||
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I can't imagine a scumteam, after having lost the day 1 election and then lost sandro day 2, to allow a town syllo with a ton of town cred to still be alive. I'm not really sure what to make of it, though. Maybe they just haven't thought he was a threat because he hasn't been very active? I can't convince myself that he's scum, because of the day 1 party, but it doesn't make much sense. | ||
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On December 01 2012 07:33 Clarity_nl wrote: May I ask, since you've hosted games. You use an rng of some kind I presume, do you ever get a roll where you go "no that's stupid" and re-roll? Yes. But, I use an algorithm to roll c9++ games. It would be much harder for something like this where every person is some kind of power role, and you would most likely have to do it by hand. You *COULD* fully random it, but it would probably take multiple tries to get something that seemed fair for both sides. | ||
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On December 01 2012 07:39 Hapahauli wrote: Yes. Being scum is the only possible way I could be angry about this. I'm not just a really fucking frustrated townie. That's inconceivable. He worded it poorly, but he has a point. It makes exactly as much sense from scum as it does from a townie. That is, it would be genuine either way, and therefor a null tell. | ||
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On December 01 2012 09:04 Clarity_nl wrote: Further information redacted from Toad's role pm is interesting It was probably the QT link and team members. On December 01 2012 09:06 CaveJohnson wrote: Why would scum ever summon lavos early... Because scum's goal is to kill ALL townies, and it doesn't appear to matter how many scum are alive at that point. Presumably, Lavos would assist with that. | ||
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On December 01 2012 09:30 Hapahauli wrote: So no I can't get this confirmed apparently since it's an outside-the-game factor. However, I hope atleast that the 100 damage I received from Toad helps corroborate my story, given that it fits with the ability What the hell. That's literally bullshit if you were sent the wrong PM that is 100% cause for a lynch but the host won't admit it to the thread. Without host confirmation, I would still want to lynch you because what other option do you have besides lying? Did Hapa receive the wrong PM cycle 3? | ||
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Don't really have an idea for what would be best for Flea though. | ||
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He claims he was roleblocked and you're the only roleblocker that has claimed. | ||
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Say someone has 450 HP. You knock them down to 200, but their max HP is 750 now. I just don't see how that's beneficial at all, when all of the claimed heals are much MUCH less than that (even if VE is telling the truth about +25% heal, that's still less heal than your damage). | ||
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That was...day 2 I think? | ||
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On December 03 2012 02:48 Clarity_nl wrote: I think it's safe to say if oats djo and myself all live through this cycle and we fail the mission djo is to blame, but if we don't fail the mission he is confirmed town. How do you know that the failure isn't just due to Dieno dying and has no bearing on Djo's alignment? | ||
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Avoiding traps makes sense, and healing makes sense. | ||
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I don't necessarily think that he's town again (it's hard to put aside the bias I already have), but the missing heal thing doesn't condemn him to me. I'll have another look through his filter again later, though. | ||
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On December 03 2012 10:40 Promethelax wrote: Kier: you have a good meta sense of Hapa, your full read? Sorry I'm watching IPL. I don't really know Hapa's meta. This and GSL 3 are the only games I've played with him, and I haven't followed his other games very closely. | ||
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On December 03 2012 11:02 iamperfection wrote: he only has 2.5 games as scum you obs'd the last one and where in one is he that hard for you? I assume you mean "we're in one". How do you know that he's scum this game? | ||
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On December 03 2012 11:09 iamperfection wrote: wtf are you talking about. im talking about hapa he has 2.5 scum games in his history You said "he only has 2.5 games as scum. You obs'd the last one, and we're in one. Is he that hard for you?" I'm wondering where you got the "and we're in one" part from? | ||
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On December 03 2012 11:14 Promethelax wrote: K-dizzle, I think you are misreading Imp. He asked 'where in one [of those games] is [hapa] this hard for you [to read]. I think. Oh, that makes a bit more sense. Learn to fucking speak english iamp. | ||
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On December 03 2012 11:19 iamperfection wrote: Keirathi you were the one going herp derp did iamp scum slip i wonder if he is scum despite him being the person to be verified going around healing people that are likely town. dont ask stupid questions I don't give a fuck if you've been healing likely town members. Who said scum can't have a healing role? You've not played like your normal self this game, and I've been giving you a free ride because of the healing. Nothing other than that has made me think you were town this whole game. | ||
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On December 03 2012 12:01 Promethelax wrote: No, no no. You don't get it. A town VE would be direct and say lolol no idea whats going on dude over here seems scummy. It is the way he asks to be forgiven for not reading the thread and only makes easy cases on players who already have cases on them which says scum. VE just flipped scum in Paranoia and didn't do any of those things, so meh. | ||
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On December 03 2012 15:09 syllogism wrote: Hey guys S&B attempted to visit Djodref Orly? So we hang S&B today? | ||
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On December 04 2012 04:01 iamperfection wrote: s&b does have a point about a possible bus driver type role. How many bus drivers do you think scum has? And if it was a town role, why did they use it on phagga, whom s&b said he was going to target at syllo's (?) request? And if it was a townie, why haven't they claimed it? | ||
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On December 04 2012 05:23 Acrofales wrote: Dug it up for you guys. Note that the date is after this game had started: What does that have to do with anything, unless S&B is the bus driver himself? :o | ||
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On December 04 2012 05:26 Acrofales wrote: This would have left some room for error if SnB had claimed Phagga had been bussed with Djodref, but SnB claims he wasn't roleblocked. Is this where we post Samuel L Jackson pictures? Oh, nvm I see. | ||
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On December 04 2012 06:44 Acrofales wrote: I didn't want you in the party when we couldn't be sure people would survive the party and your hidden modifier screwed that up. Anyway, I thought you got bonuses for being in 600 AD period. If you think it's pointless to go to 600 AD lets not. Lets just think about the End of Time deal which is basically Drazerk's little pet project. And Drazerks pet projects are terrible ideas to get involved in. I don't think it's pointless to go to 600AD as long as I get to be in the party. If we go to 600AD and I don't, then its pointless. | ||
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On December 04 2012 09:02 CaveJohnson wrote: ![[image loading]](http://www.test-preparation.ca/study-center/wp-content/uploads/spock-300x263.jpg) Every other time zone is flooded with enemies where anything can happen. I don't want to risk anything happening this late into the game. We're only half way through the game :o Remember, we don't go to 1999 until cycle 12. Even if you're right, I doubt we can sit in EoT forever. | ||
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Keirathi
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On December 04 2012 15:03 Hapahauli wrote: Especially austin, who IMO is pretty easy to read. Off-topic and not entirely relevant, but why do you think austin is easy to read? His only scum game was Aperture 2, and I thought you didn't follow that game? | ||
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Keirathi
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On December 04 2012 15:15 Hapahauli wrote: Oh Kei, since you're around, I've been trying to get people to hash out the case on me. I've really had nothing to respond to, and apparently you think I'm scum. Why do you think so? I recently said I didn't think you were scum based on the mod PM thing, which pushed you back to null. Your point about voting Toad day 2 rather than Sandro has some townie merit, but you have some things that keep you kind of in the neutral zone for me (the Prom case, trying to force yourself into the party leader after we had successful parties...I think there was something else, but honestly its too late to go look back through your whole filter). | ||
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600AD is of course fine with me. | ||
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On December 04 2012 23:27 CaveJohnson wrote: At least get the dreamstone from prehistory if we aren't going to EoT Isn't the dreamstone for restoring Masamune? 1) Dieno is dead, and 2) he had Masamune repaired before he died :o | ||
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On December 05 2012 01:32 phagga wrote: No. But there are third parties out there. There may even be a second scum faction that we know nothing about yet (although it seems unlikely). Going to say that snb is sure scum just seems wrong in that context. We don't know what alignement snb has except that it is very unlikely town. I understand that S&B isn't 100% confirmed scum. It is very likely that he is scum, but he's not confirmed in a game like this until he flips. But I'm super confused by your "twisting my words" thing. Here's what went down: GK: "s&b is sure scum" you: "Why is s&b sure scum?" GK: "Here's my reasons. Do you think he could be town?" you: "Quit twisting my words and leave me the fuck alone" ..... I just dont understand your response. | ||
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On December 05 2012 02:09 Acrofales wrote: It is strange you bring this up with regards to SnB, yet never mentioned anything like it with Toad. Why were you sure Toad was scum, yet are now bringing up 3P and second scumteams that we have NO evidence of (note, I made the previous post prematurely and hadn't read the rest of the discussion yet). Don't be dumb Acro. Toad had a parity check that said he was the same alignment as sandro, and your role check had him listed as red. Maybe parity checks work the same across scum/3p/potential scum team, but it's unlikely. He was directly linked to sandro. | ||
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On December 05 2012 06:52 Promethelax wrote: I like Draz. When he decides to participate he often has great ideas. Gems in the rough. However, Draz, you aren't actually giving me anything to work with. I still want to know who you think is scum. In aperture 2, he thought we were playing with 4 scum teams and he was the only townie... | ||
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On December 05 2012 07:43 Promethelax wrote: Well lets help Iamp out, I like him, he likes the present. Come on guys, lets make GreY work for this day post. You don't like me? Iamp just thinks *MAYBE* he can get a bonus if he's in a party in the present. I *KNOW* I get bonuses if I'm in a party during 600 AD. Remember how I got to jail someone after cycle 1? | ||
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In every single game, no matter if they are town/town or scum/town, draz and S&B yell at each other and fight because they HATE each other. There was none of that this game? | ||
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On December 05 2012 09:27 Acrofales wrote: That's what I meant with the weird interaction between the two. Also, it's more of a love-hate relationship. Yea I didn't actually see your post before I started writing mine | ||
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I've got some ocean front property in Arizona I could sell you.... | ||
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On December 06 2012 03:18 Promethelax wrote: Magnus makes way more sense. His secondary would be to be included in a party or to outlast frog. Both of those make sense lore wise and have been accomplished. I believe he said yesterday before the S&B lynch that his secondary wincon hadn't been activated yet. Dieno was already dead by then. | ||
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On December 07 2012 07:17 Promethelax wrote: I'm pretty sure he is. This play is not in line with the tooth an nail fighting crazy bastard of a town Risk. I dunno what risk you've played with, but that's not my experience My experience is town risk about to get lynched comes in at the last minute and calls everyone fucking retards and storms off. | ||
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On December 08 2012 23:04 kitaman27 wrote: Keirathi, as you were in two parties, what was your second ability? Are these abilities one use? Its strange that his role is so nerfed compared to everyone else. He also has the failed event to take into account. I'm a JOAT of sorts. I have a track (1), jk (2), 200 hp vig (3), and an alignment check (4). The numbers inside the parentheses are how many "points" the ability costs for me to use it. I get one point for being in a party, or two points for being the party leader. If the time period is 600AD, those points are doubled (So I got 2 points for the day 1 party, letting me using a jail, etc). The second time I was in the party, I tracked Hapa. It was the same night Syllo tracked him though, and my result was that Hapa didn't target anyone. | ||
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Scum not having any kind of protection/healing role seems weird. And if they do have one, they probably can't use it on themselves. So it would have had to been used on a townie (or not used at all, but that would be dumb...need the town cred) assuming that there is only 1 scum left. And I agree with GK, that "summon Lavos early" line of thinking makes literally 0 sense. Scum wincon is still to kill all of the townies, not to summon Lavos, and it's a pretty reasonable assumption that the more townies alive when he's summoned, the more likely he is to die. Scum would want to stay alive and kill as many townies as possible before they went out. ##Vote austinmcc ##Epoch Prehistory | ||
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##Unvote austinmcc ##Vote phagga | ||
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On December 09 2012 07:17 phagga wrote: I know Oats is supposed to vote in the Voting thread, but he left his vote here. Can't you make an exception for him if he fails to vote in the voting thread in time? Ugh I just don't think scum would have made this post either. By pointing out the Oats vote, phagga is getting himself lynched... | ||
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On December 09 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote: really dude? Feels to me like a classic self vote as false town tell. Like seriously that post convinced me that switching my vote was worth my time. How often do scum self-vote themselves? I can't think of any game I've seen it besides GSL 3 when Marv hammered himself in an instant-lynch scenario. And I've seen multiple townies do it (including myself). | ||
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On December 09 2012 07:27 phagga wrote: No, it was 8/8, and austin was on 8 first, so I think it would still have been him. That is, until Prom switched his vote. Oh, you're right. When I went to check, I checked the most recent vote count in the voting thread and it said 8/6. I assumed that wasn't counting Oats, since that was the post that had said "OATS ISN'T VOTING GETTING MODKILLED", but I didn't realize it had gotten edited and Oats vote added in to make it 8/6. | ||
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On December 09 2012 08:42 Hapahauli wrote: Who did you roleblock Syllo (and kita)? Syllo's already claimed Austin and said he didn't go anywhere. | ||
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On December 09 2012 08:57 kitaman27 wrote: This game really comes down to defeating lavos. Mafia is going to lose their factional kp so they are less of a threat. One option we have is to lynch Acro. We know he doesn't contribute to the town damage output formula against Lavos. Lynching him might be the least risky option if the remaining mafia player is one of Keirathi/Adam/Prom/Hapa/Hope. With some luck, he might even turn out to be an anti-town player. I think this might be our best option. I love how you just keep randomly throwing my name in there. I answered your question about my role btw. Dunno if you read it since you didn't comment. | ||
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On December 09 2012 11:15 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, I can ask. I'm going to assume that I'll still need to predict who is going to die, which will be no one unless Lavos has some kind of damaging ability to go with his roleblocks. Of course he has some kind of damaging ability. What would be the point otherwise? :o | ||
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Why do half of the things you said make no sense :o Also why won't you full roleclaim? | ||
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On December 10 2012 11:29 Promethelax wrote: says the guy who won't tell me his name. Did you ask me for my name? I didn't see it. I am Tata. | ||
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On December 10 2012 11:33 Promethelax wrote: a combination of curiosity and the desire to have all our information out on the table because I believe that scum no longer has a way to punish name claimers. The information is completely pointless though. 100% absolutely pointless. | ||
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On December 10 2012 11:36 Promethelax wrote: Not necessarily. I'll know that when I have all the information. No, you're dumb. It's useless information. | ||
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I don't know what you expect from a town austin, but accusing him for going after the 3rd party is silly. Not that I particularly want to lynch Acro either, but "I think you're scum. Go prove that you aren't by finding scum for us because I'm too lazy and don't feel like looking at anyone except you" is silly. | ||
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On December 11 2012 05:41 Acrofales wrote: Hmmrmm, I see I forgot about Keirathi on my list. I will have to go over his filter again. I had him down as town for a number of things: 1. He was on a successful party 2. The whole "low success modifier" was too weird for a fakeclaim when the OP explicitly states that the success modifier was hidden. His reaction at me made sense. 3. He claims he gets abilities from successful parties he's on. By being on the party he was able to jail syllo. Syllo claimed roleblocked and nobody counterclaimed. Other nights he claimed no abilities. Number 3 means that either scum has a roleblocker who only roleblocked once (all other blocks are claimed), or roleblocked people like CJ. There also seems to be less KP on N2 than on N1 or N3, making it likely that scum targeted Syllo while he was jailed. The rest of my town read on Keirathi was based on him not playing like scum. Also, Tata makes absolutely perfect sense for Keirathi's earlier claims. It is a hilarious troll role by Greymist. I don't get abilities from successful parties (see the day 4? 5? party that failed, I still got my 1 point and used it to track Hapa). FWIW, the reason I apparently have a low success modifier is because I'm a child so I don't bring as much to the party. On December 11 2012 05:29 austinmcc wrote: Keirathi Claims low success modifier (avoid being put in parties, avoid town seeing keirathi-parties fail) Maintained had to be in party to get powers (could account for some missing night actions if lying) Very concerned about parity checks If I just skim through filter, this post is...tiny and forgotten, but neat: We still don't know what was missing from Toad's role PM. I heart me some speculation too, but...if you're looking for cracks in someone who seems townie, this is one of those times where it's possible someone has more information than they should. Keirathi comes out looking like the most likely candidate to me. Except that he WAS IN two parties and they succeeded. We don't know exactly how modifiers work, but people still took him and still succeeded. And this post feels genuinely frustrated: Keirathi has the most little niggling questions, but ... reads as town. Actively trying to figure out what's going on, make reads, lightly push his own reads, townKeirathi-esque. And he's got the right read on me, so there's that. About the Toad thing: Meh, it was just common sense. In every game I've ever seen where the host puts [redacted] in a scum role PM, in the post game the redacted parts were teammates+QT link. | ||
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Nothing except sending in action PMs? | ||
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On December 11 2012 09:03 TheChronicler wrote: Lol wtf am I supposed to do? You get to be useless and watch everybody do stuff for 2+ days like me! | ||
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On December 12 2012 05:53 Promethelax wrote: You are and always will be Imp. You are an impish fellow. Also Iamp looks like lamp. Why are you calling Horation 'Imp'. What is this blasphemy? | ||
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On December 12 2012 05:56 Promethelax wrote: where did that n come from? His name is Horatio. Typo. I obviously meant Horatio, you noober. | ||
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On December 12 2012 05:58 Promethelax wrote: Keir, do you have any powers? Or are you just a useless vt dealing your 25 damage by virtue of existing? Nope no powers. If anyone actually cares, I still have 375 HP. | ||
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On December 12 2012 08:19 iamperfection wrote: Wtf who is trying to kill me? I took 100 dmg again. It makes no sense im not that valuable at this point? Err you realize Lavos does damage right? | ||
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On December 13 2012 00:39 Acrofales wrote: Also not a lie? I don't even know why I'm addressing you. Scum, by definition, lies. Anything that you post is inherently untrustworthy. That part is true too! Or...is it? | ||
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GG everyone. This game kind of got dominated by town. 5 scum lynched in a row, and 6 out of 7 total. (PS: sorry to GreYMisT for being whiny towards the end of the game) | ||
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On December 13 2012 09:29 GreYMisT wrote: To reveal some secrets though: The countdown was a mafia ability. It did nothing. Event success was determined by the modifiers next to names. an event was classified by difficulty. I figured it out as I was reading. I noticed I wasn't the only person with a 2, but no one else was notified of it. Crazy, crazy GreYMisT games! | ||
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On December 13 2012 09:36 GreYMisT wrote: You were notified to make your role harder :D My role was weak anyways. Even if I had been on every single party, I would have only been able to use 1 alignment check and 1 jail? It was a fun role in theory, but in practice i was basically just a VT. | ||
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On December 13 2012 10:00 Risen wrote: Also my play day 1 was not intentionally bad. I just tried to come up with a plan that benefited scum but looked like it benefited town. You guys saw through it easily. Thank you for hosting grey and mt, I personally loved the game. It was so long ago, I don't even remember what your plan was! | ||
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On December 13 2012 10:55 Hapahauli wrote: Speaking of role design, my abilities (Lucca) seemed really underwhelming to some of the other abilities that have been revealed throughout the game... was there something I was missing about how my abilities should be used? Yours? | ||
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On December 13 2012 11:03 GreYMisT wrote: The RB track that syllo had was very powerfull, but I originally thought that he would spend most of the game on foot, haha. I thought to myself that I would have to somehow hope that he uses his other power, lol. So what do you guys think is the coolest role in the game? Give me one for Mafia and one for not mafia. Prom's seed ability, for town. Norstein Bekkler for scum | ||
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On December 13 2012 15:44 sylverfyre wrote: I had a lot of fun figuring out rolenames. Sadly I was wrong about TC (I had guessed he was the rich guy in 1000 AD who steals your sun stone, because of his gold-related claims.) I was right about Kierathi (my first guess) and then when I was confirmed right there, I embarked on a quest to figure out who was who. I pinned down Syllo and Lamp, and made a correct guess about Kita=Crono. (though it was pretty much a pure guess) But what I really want to know is... Where is Schala? Before or after my "I kid, I kid" comment? | ||
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On December 14 2012 07:03 Toadesstern wrote: factional KP wasn't unblockable, only untrackable as noone had to "deliver" the damage. He meant unblockable via roleblock, which is how Prom's ability would have been able to block it. | ||
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