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On November 24 2012 06:49 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 06:44 Hapahauli wrote:@ nl_clarityI'm not sold on Sandro or your 2nd case on him. Your 2nd case talks a lot about "faking enthusiasm," but his change in eagerness is explainable in many other ways as well. Also, I believe that him giving up the election at the end doesn't make sense with scum objectives: Regarding Sandroba
Along similar lines as the read on GoodKarma, him completely abandoning his campaign and sheeping on Syllo doesn't make much sense from a scum perspective. Why guarentee a strong town player complete control over party selections? Makes no sense as scum. While his activity dipped down today, the day is still young, and I can't blame people for lack of activity on Thanksgiving. Whaddy'a think? I understand your argument when it comes to him giving up his campaign, but this can be explained in a couple of different ways. Some scummy some townie, most for either. My point is that his behavior this game has not made sense to me at all until I looked at it from this angle.
Well I think his campaign-actions are more likely townie than the alternatives. Also, I don't think lynching someone for losing interest on D2, especially over the holidays, is a good idea. I really want to see more from Sandroba before I'd consider lynching him.
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On November 24 2012 06:54 syllogism wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 06:44 Hapahauli wrote:@ nl_clarityI'm not sold on Sandro or your 2nd case on him. Your 2nd case talks a lot about "faking enthusiasm," but his change in eagerness is explainable in many other ways as well. Also, I believe that him giving up the election at the end doesn't make sense with scum objectives: Regarding Sandroba
Along similar lines as the read on GoodKarma, him completely abandoning his campaign and sheeping on Syllo doesn't make much sense from a scum perspective. Why guarentee a strong town player complete control over party selections? Makes no sense as scum. While his activity dipped down today, the day is still young, and I can't blame people for lack of activity on Thanksgiving. Whaddy'a think? I don't think Sandroba is in the US currently and I believe very few people celebrate thanksgiving in Brazil. Also some of you people aren't giving my ability to read sandroba nearly enough weight
Oh he's in Brazil? Well that's something to consider.
I'd rather give Sandroba more time. A lot of the meta stuff is explainable by RL things, and isn't enough for me to draw a pattern of "scumminess."
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Oh good catch. He might be worth a vote then.
Also, TheChronicler's defense seems to be townie, even if "erratic" - instantaneous replies, and he doesn't seem very concerned about suspicion on him.
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On November 24 2012 07:21 syllogism wrote:
And hapa wasn't talking about his earlier disappearance, but his current one. It's fairly suspicious that hapa attempted to defend sandroba based on it being thanksgiving as it indicates that he didn't even bother checking where sandroba is from, but perhaps it's just american to expect thanksgiving to be a more global thing.
'MURICA! Naw it's just me being stupid.
I'll have to look into Sandroba more. I'm really just not convinced, especially given that he basically handed you the election on a silver platter at the end of the game.
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On November 24 2012 09:37 CaveJohnson wrote:
Sorry VE I can't allow you to do that...
##Spicy Jerky: VisceraEyes
Can you specify what exactly this is? I though it was a joke, but this apparently is an "item" in Chrono Trigger.
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Ahhhhh lol - thinking too hard about this I suppose.
How much have ya been following the game VE? Enough to come up with a read or two?
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@ VE
Well... what about that even makes me scummy? "Recalcitrant" would better describe a townie than a scum player no? It looks like you skimmed over all my objections to Syllo's candidacy on D1 and just focused on select rhetoric I used as opposed to my actual arguments. Rather ironic that you accuse me of "misrepresenting" syllo's candidacy while misrepresenting my opposition.
If you're town, I hope we're not getting the Liquid City iteration of VE. If you're scum, please carry on.
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Yeah I'm just going to sheep on Sandroba. Adam's post convinced me - he just seems really detatched - much more so than anything I've seen in his town games.
Looking back at him "resigning" his candidacy again, he pretty much only did it when it was clear Syllo was going to win, and did it in complete silence in the voting thread.
##Vote Sandroba
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@ Sandro
Welcome back - Prom and Kita I can sympathize with... but clarity? That seems pretty far-fetched. Can you give us a rundown? I read clarity as really strongly town.
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On November 24 2012 12:01 sandroba wrote:
Pretty much his forged nonsensical cases against me, deliberately misinterpreting things to make me look scummy. I'm not quite sure yet because he could be really bad and have confirmation bias, trying to fit every single post I make in his theory.
Oh come on... you're straight up OMGUS Clarity? I mean the guy is a relatively new player and has an 11 page filter...
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On November 24 2012 12:09 Z-BosoN wrote:
Hapa, what do you think of iamp? I'm missing a lot of him. He kept up a lot of posts in day one, but now is being waaay lurkier than his townie self usually is.
It's kinda similar to his play in GSL III at the moment. He kept up with his mentality/activity well early on, but couldn't maintain his attitude in later days. It's similar on its face, however, I don't think it's damning yet. If he keeps up his inactivity, he may very well deserve a vote.
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On November 24 2012 12:27 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 12:07 Hapahauli wrote:On November 24 2012 12:01 sandroba wrote:
Pretty much his forged nonsensical cases against me, deliberately misinterpreting things to make me look scummy. I'm not quite sure yet because he could be really bad and have confirmation bias, trying to fit every single post I make in his theory. Oh come on... you're straight up OMGUS Clarity? I mean the guy is a relatively new player and has an 11 page filter... Having lots of 1-liners is a town tell how? Don't get me wrong. I have no clue about clarity's alignment right now. Last time I read his filter I was null and I have plenty of homework tomorrow. But what the fuck does the length of his filter have to do with it? You want a giant filter? Look at Drazerk in HRM. I believe he reached 25 pages of rhyme. Yes, he was scum.
It's not just the filter size - it's his level of engagement in the thread. In addition, his filter isn't simply "11 pages of one-liners" - there's some solid analysis in there.
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@ Z-Bo
I think his stances on marv are rather reasonable. Many players in the beginning did not understand how the "party" system worked and were proposing various vets as teams. I think that's the case with Prom's involvement of Marv on the team. Him "prodding" marv with suspicion is a bit strange, but again, is excusable.
What starts to get sketchy in his filter are his voting actions. His voting rationale is really questionable all around.
He votes Acro for the sake of opposing Syllo and Sand for no other reason than they were popular candidates:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=40#795
He then votes Kita for equally strange rationale:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=56#1104
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I did not address Syllo because he did not seem to be a credible candidate to me at that point. I'm not going to vote Acro as he did not try to generate momentum from my vote on him and I will be voting somewhere else instead.
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My vote will be on Kita, the candidate I trust. The reasons I trust him 1) I am in his party and know that I am town. That leaves only three others in the party and I have a town read on all three. 2) I am very unhappy with how into Syllo/Sand this thread is. The lack of a real campaign away from theirs worries the shit out of me. Mafia would want to be leader or in the party and the only way that is confirmed is if one of them is mafia. Ergo ## vote: kitaman
Firstly, his reasons for voting kita are really bad. He trusts kita only for the reasons that Prom is included in the party. That's really really weak and has no bearing on whether or not kita is town.
Secondly, he dismisses Syllo as a candidate for absolutely no reasoning. Thing is, he never talks about why Syllo is a bad candidate in his filter. He just has this unexplained "suspicion" that either one of Syllo/Sandrob is scum. In fact, his later posts make no sense with this mentality:
On November 23 2012 05:40 Promethelax wrote:
Hapa, you will not get my vote today. You come to late to change this election and I don't like that you push us away from Sand/Syllo but don't mention Kita except as a 'joke'
I agree with you that we should not be voting Sand based on his unopposed candidacy and I didn't want to vote Syllo since he seemed intent on bringing Sand with him on the mission. I still prefer Syllo over Sand and will vote him if things get tight, as it is though I am more comfortable with Kita than either of them, his town reads are still strong to me even though he is not as townine in my mind as any of the three he chose to take with him.
In my catching up I saw Kita post something asking why I was voting him if I didn't think he was the best leader. I thought I had made this clear, he was the best leader with a chance of success. If that wasn't clear my apologies, my intention was to communicate that Kita was the least of the evils which were available to me.
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Bolded part is relevant here. There is all sorts of stuff wrong with that statement. He is really convinced that one of Syllo/Sand is scum in previous posts...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=56#1113
I will bet that at least one of Syllo/Sand is scum. I think I explained well enough earlier and I'm sticking with that. If you need clarification I can give you that.
...yet he's really at peace with the idea of voting Syllo. This doesn't make sense, since he believes that Syllo would take along Sandrob on his team. If he's "convinced" that one of them is scum, he should be really objecting to them as opposed to resigning himself to voting the lesser of two evils.
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Bleh I just convinced myself that Promethelax is scum. His voting actions make absolutely no sense.
##Vote: Promethelax
1)Prom's attitude on "Consolidation"
Early in D1, he shows a desire to consolidate the campaigns:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=15#289
On November 21 2012 11:44 Promethelax wrote:
I propose that we limit the leader voting to a small pool of players (~3-5) that way they can run true campaigns for the position and all others run campaigns to be chosen as a member of their party. That is if the vote were between Me, Marv and Clarity each of us would say why you should vote us and everyone else would try to show what it is they bring to the team.
If we could limit the leader voting after 24 hours to a small pool we will be able to have a more productive d1, think of this as similar to a lynch consolidation but doing it early enough that everyone still has a chance to make a difference and no votes are left on players who have no chance of becoming leader.
However when things are "consolidated" on Syllo and Sandrob, he is really bothered by this, and starts voting other candidates basically for the sake of creating opposition. Some notables:
On November 22 2012 02:22 Promethelax wrote:
You know catching up with this thread is a million times worse than I was hoping, remember how I said that I was toning down the amount which I am posting? Could you all do me a favour and consolidate too. Thanks.
After reading the last ~20 pages I have come to a conclusion as to who I want to vote. It isn't Sylo and it isn't Sand. Their abilities are, no doubt, incredible but I don't like the way Sand took over the thread early and no one challenged him. I feel that a mafia player would in fact have tried to take over. (Remember Matt's reed of Decundo in PP) as such I'll be voting away from the two of them and towards someone who I read as town right now and who is known for having good reads.
## Vote: Acro
Come on boys, lets do this right and make Sand have to fight for his nomination.
I'll be out again for a few hours. See ya'll soon.
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My vote will be on Kita, the candidate I trust. The reasons I trust him 1) I am in his party and know that I am town. That leaves only three others in the party and I have a town read on all three. 2) I am very unhappy with how into Syllo/Sand this thread is. The lack of a real campaign away from theirs worries the shit out of me. Mafia would want to be leader or in the party and the only way that is confirmed is if one of them is mafia. Ergo ## vote: kitaman
2) Prom's Attitude on Syllo
Since Syllo is pretty much confirmed town at this point, it's worth looking at Prom's attitudes from that perspective. I mentioned in my previous post that Prom didn't view Syllo as a "credible" candidate. In addition, he has a general suspicion that one of Sandrob/Syllo is scum. But he NEVER explains this. Here are all the mentions of Syllo in his filter:
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After reading the last ~20 pages I have come to a conclusion as to who I want to vote. It isn't Sylo and it isn't Sand. Their abilities are, no doubt, incredible but I don't like the way Sand took over the thread early and no one challenged him. I feel that a mafia player would in fact have tried to take over. (Remember Matt's reed of Decundo in PP) as such I'll be voting away from the two of them and towards someone who I read as town right now and who is known for having good reads.
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I did not address Syllo because he did not seem to be a credible candidate to me at that point. I'm not going to vote Acro as he did not try to generate momentum from my vote on him and I will be voting somewhere else instead.
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My vote will be on Kita, the candidate I trust. The reasons I trust him 1) I am in his party and know that I am town. That leaves only three others in the party and I have a town read on all three. 2) I am very unhappy with how into Syllo/Sand this thread is. The lack of a real campaign away from theirs worries the shit out of me.
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Kier: I've been thinking of that as well (encryption could solve this problem ) but the hell with it. I have town reads on everyone Kita plans on picking. I know I am town. I am very worried about Sand/Syllo. I was planning on voting away from them and won't vote for them even if Kita changes his party to exclude me.
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Oats: my scum reads, or non-town reads really I'm betting on a three party system, are pretty minor (if I were Marv they'd be pink or something)
Hapa reads as non-town to me he has not been the assertive, pushy in my face townie I expect and I don't like it.
I will bet that at least one of Syllo/Sand is scum. I think I explained well enough earlier and I'm sticking with that. If you need clarification I can give you that.
GK: it seems to me that scum want to be elected leader (an assumption but ah well, I have to go with what I have) or at least be a party member, since there were only two candidates who seemed like they would take each other in thier parties I was deeply unhappy. If scum wants be leader (which I believe) than one of Sand or Syllo must be scum. Otherwise a strong candidate would have appeared to oppose them, since that had not appeared I assumed that mafia was content with what we were doing and I was not content with that.
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Kita may not be the best leader but he is better than Syllo/Sand (though I would vote Syllo over sand) and I hate the party you chose. I think that Kita has a chance to be party leader and has a better chance of being town than Sand or Syllo. His town reads also agree with mine.
Hapa, you will not get my vote today. You come to late to change this election and I don't like that you push us away from Sand/Syllo but don't mention Kita except as a 'joke'
I agree with you that we should not be voting Sand based on his unopposed candidacy and I didn't want to vote Syllo since he seemed intent on bringing Sand with him on the mission. I still prefer Syllo over Sand and will vote him if things get tight, as it is though I am more comfortable with Kita than either of them, his town reads are still strong to me even though he is not as townine in my mind as any of the three he chose to take with him.
That's all the stuff from D1. There's no significant explanations. No nothing. He appears to be trying to discredit Syllo for no significant reasoning.
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On November 25 2012 02:24 Clarity_nl wrote:
Hapa your case on Hapa focusses a lot on his opposition to syllo getting elected, from a scum perspective I don't see this making sense unless there is a scum running at that time and Prome is indirectly supporting that person.
From the way the elections went only Sand and Kita were in the running at one point or another, are you willing to say that if Prome is scum one of these two is as well, and if so whom?
I realize it is, in a way, an association case with a flip, but I'm curious what you think about this.
Well that's based (as you say) on associative tells and that's not very good reason to not suspect someone. In addition, there's plenty to suggest from previous games (such as Resistance) that only 1 scum is needed in the party for the mission to fail. Prom (as scum) has plenty of incentive to support a person (kita) who wanted to take him on his team, regardless of allignment.
The stuff on Syllo is valid because he tears him down for no reasoning. He just pushes passive suspicion on Syllo, which is really scummy, especially since we know that Syllo is town.
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@ Marv
Solid stuff on kita. Still like Promethelax more, but man I've never been so comfortable with so many lynch options. Prom, Sandro, and Kita look like they all have a pretty high chance to flip red to me o-O
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On November 25 2012 03:11 strongandbig wrote:
I don't like the case on prone from hapa
I don't see the scum motivation, the case boils down to "this guy voted weird get him"
Yes my entire case is about that, and not that he provided absolutely no reasoning for anything he was talking about.
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##Vote Toadsstern
I think Acro nailed it.
On November 25 2012 05:08 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 04:59 goodkarma wrote:
But hasn't sandra been just as worthless? I'll have to re-read your filter but it doesn't quite add up to me why toad would so much more definitely be scum than sandroba on that basis. Sandro upped and left. He is not here (or faking not being here). Sure, that is damning, because it's sandroba, but on exactly the same basis we could be lynching SnB, hopeless1der, Promethelax, VE, Adam or iamperfection. Yes, we hold Sandroba to a higher standard... and Syllo has a meta-based scumread on him. However, I am not comfortable sheeping Syllo. If he's wrong, we're screwed and have absolutely nothing useful. Toad, on the other hand has been here. He has been posting, quite actively at times. Yet, he has DONE jack shit. That is far more damning than going afk imho.
There's just nothing in Toad's filter that looks like scum-hunting. He never commits to a read, never builds a case, and just passively comments on a bunch of other people. I find it hard to believe that he's so scared of taking some HP damage to completely ignore town objectives (scumhunting) for 3-4 days.
As for the other candidates, I still wouldn't mind a Sandro or Prom lynch. However I think Toad has the highest chance of flipping here - as Acro said, he's been active and present, yet hasn't done anything.
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Sandro looks to be heading to a modkill, and for those of you voting for him, it's worth it to consider another voting option as to not waste the lynch for today. Toad perhaps.
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EPT
