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On November 25 2012 09:30 Hassybaby wrote:
Final Day 2 Lynch Count!
Sandroba (14): Clarity_nl, Oatsmaster, Adam4167, goodkarma, risk.nuke, strongandbig, syllogism, TheChronicler, Hapahauli, Promethelax, Toadesstern, Viscera Eyes, kitaman27, iamperfection, marvellosity, Keirathi, phagga
BioSC (0): Djodref
CaveJohnson (0): Djodref, phagga
TheChronicler (1): Djodref, Acrofales, Hopeless1der
Promethelax (0): Hapahauli
kitaman27 (0): Djodref, marvellosity
goodkarma (1): Dienosore
Toadesstern (7): Acrofales, Hapahauli, Clarity_nl, Djodref, Z-BosoN, CaveJohnson, goodkarma
It is now Night 3 blah blah I'm technically not co-host
This seems right/
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They're both assumptions. Plus we already failed a mission, although it wasn't because of scum, obviously.
But by the time cycle 3 happened, how could scum try to inject themselves into running when the three people actually being voted on were Dieno, Oats and yourself. Scum wants to appear rather townie and I don't think hapa has done a good job of that, which shows by the fact that no one has considered taking him on a party. The closest he has gotten has been the day 1 election, but ever since he has not tried hard.
I think my main point for hapa being town was the way he responded when he got told his case seemed "like he felt forced to contribute", he basically admitted that he did, which seems very townie to me.
Anyway, I don't mean to be soft defending hapa, he is definitely not close to confirmed town or anything like that, but I think arriving at him due to process of elimination is the wrong way to go about it due to the themed setup requiring us to make assumptions.
On December 01 2012 05:58 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 05:48 Clarity_nl wrote:On December 01 2012 05:44 Hopeless1der wrote:On December 01 2012 05:39 Clarity_nl wrote:On December 01 2012 05:38 Hopeless1der wrote:On December 01 2012 05:36 Clarity_nl wrote:On December 01 2012 05:35 Hopeless1der wrote:On December 01 2012 05:32 Clarity_nl wrote:On December 01 2012 05:30 Hopeless1der wrote:On December 01 2012 05:29 Clarity_nl wrote:
[quote]
Not really. My vote on him is rather sheepish. If I couldn't lynch toad and I had to pick it would be phagga.
After going over hapa and phagga I find it likely that hapa is town (despite the healing issue) and his case on phagga is strong in my eyes. His defense especially strikes me as very scum-like. I'd say the same thing about GK..in fact I pretty much do. Yeah but I find you to be a kind of mystery so your word doesn't mean much to me right now. I've also focused on townreads much more this cycle for obvious reasons. From my (not extensive) reading, I find phagga more scummy than GK atm. I also think that if phagga flips red that makes gk much more likely to be town. oh...kay. You don't understand, or you don't care to convince me? You evidently don't care, its a completely secondary thought of 'oh shit scum might pardon toad what do we do now' and have just sheeped a scumread. I am willing to listen to an argument, but I'm not hearing one. Like I said I've been focusing more on townreads. I think of all people, you should be one of the last to accuse me of not caring. Promethelax and VE have extensive cases and GK has responded to both. Have you read and considered them? I'm not asking you to listen to my argument, I'm asking why you want to do what you're doing. If you lack the conviction to stand behind your read, why bother swapping off Toad? Wait, I lack conviction now? I've read all the cases, I read both their filters, I came to the conclusion that phagga is scummier than gk right now. Could I be wrong? Sure. But he's my strongest read after Toad. That's why I'm voting for him. I don't really see what you're getting at. At best, Hapa is the reason you've swapped a long-standing town read on phagga and you've offered little to no reasoning for it. I don't care that it's hypocritical of me, if people didn't think you were semi-confirmed town, you would never be able to pull this off.
Regardless of alignment, everyone changes their reads. I don't care what I should or shouldn't "get away with" and I find this line of thinking really weird from you. The only time I really said I felt phagga was town was cycle 1, when I wanted him instead of GK on hapa's party.
Phagga is currently my top scumread (after toad) because I was convinced by the cases made against him, which made me go and read his filter. You find that weird?
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Given the new and fixed votecount, doublevoters either don't show up in the votecount, meaning the numbers would be pointless in any case, or they are activated abilities. In either case, I don't think there's much risk, unless scum has a lynchmaster or a pardoner. In either of these cases, the hidden mechanic of this election still seems irrelevant.
TLDR: unless I am completely missing something the "hidden lynch" mechanic seems pointless and we should play as if it doesn't exist.
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I'm not arriving at him just due to process of elimination, not that there is anything wrong with process of elimination, and stating that "they are both assumptions" is a meaningless statement as one of these "assumptions" is much more likely than the other. Greymist says he feels the setup is "very balanced" and the only reasonable interpretation of that means that mafia has to contest elections to have a decent chance at winning. These elections are the part of the game where we are actually playing the game of mafia rather than just night action roulette.
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I understand what you were saying when it came to the assumption, I just wanted to clarify.
The way you said it seemed liked "No, my thing isn't an assumption, yours is! Because mine is more likely"
In your line of thinking, the first two cycles are pretty damning for hapa (due to process of elimination, there has to be a scum "out there") but how do you feel about his play for the last week? He's not even suggesting he should be on the party.
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On December 01 2012 06:22 Clarity_nl wrote:
I understand what you were saying when it came to the assumption, I just wanted to clarify.
The way you said it seemed liked "No, my thing isn't an assumption, yours is! Because mine is more likely"
In your line of thinking, the first two cycles are pretty damning for hapa (due to process of elimination, there has to be a scum "out there") but how do you feel about his play for the last week? He's not even suggesting he should be on the party.
He wanted to be party leader just LAST CYCLE.
On November 27 2012 10:06 Hapahauli wrote:
I would like to run for party leader
My party will be Dienosaur, Kei, and either Chronicler or Acro
If you for whatever reason do not feel safe with Chronicler/Acro, I can add Oatsmaster in that slot.
Why you can trust me
I think the parties I proposed above are as near confirmed town as we can get in this situation. Given this player pool, you can trust me. Why? Because if we failed the mission, I would be holding a neon-sign saying "LYNCH ME." This is suicidal for me to do as scum.
Remember?
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I actually did not remember that. Dunno how I read over that twice.
How do you feel about his "if we fail it's obviously me and I'd never do this as scum"?
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I agree with Syllo here. Scum HAS to try to get into the party to try to win the game, unless town is derping it up (and as long as we leave Dieno out of it, town is not derping it up). They have either already infiltrated our town circle of Dieno, Clarity, Syllo, Oats and Keirathi and are biding their time, OR they are trying desperately to change something in the way our town works. Shooting Marv was a start, but in addition to shooting members, they need to somehow get themselves into the party.
I'd say TheChronicler is nearest to being in the town circle without actually being in yet... and it's entirely possible he's been bamboozling us all, but I honestly doubt it. We also have Djodref, who has been giving me town vibes all game and his save of Dieno seems pretty townie too. Given this situation it seems to me that scum really has to get something done. That brings us to everybody else who is trying to get in on a party. Of these Hapa and Kita seem the most adamant about how they should/deserve to be included.
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Hopeless, I really hate repeating myself. But let me quickly address your concerns detailed here.
On December 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 01:41 Dienosore wrote:On December 01 2012 00:44 goodkarma wrote:
Stop and think for a second: As scum: Do you seriously think that I would make a detailed list post highlighting all my reads in this game? This would give you an abundance of information if I were to flip scum, and that just isn't my scumgame... Further, that's way more effort than I put into my scum game...
Seriously. Get your head out of your ass and spend a few seconds to consider the merits of my writeup. Except you fail to mention that you put that exact same list in the mason qt before you posted it here. Now, I'm not sure why you felt the need to throw all that info to the public? Giving cases on scum is fine, but copy/pasting your notepad list of reads on half of the people of the game just doesn't make sense to me... Maybe you were scared Syllo was going to expose it, and so you decided to post here in the forums before he did as a bit of damage control? I really dislike the fact that GK is arguing that his own meta doesn't match. If he's aware of his meta, he can abuse it and anything he says is now WIFOM. Reading his response to Promethelax's case, he spends way too much time being upset and pulling the 'y u no read filter' card. He also calls the case bad a number of times instead of addressing it properly. The prime example is: Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 13:34 goodkarma wrote:
I can understand the excuses that Sandroba has provided, but I find the complete lack of followup on who he would consider a prime scum suspect to be disturbing. It's as though he is holding back, maybe... because he's scum, and as scum making up even a half-baked scumread is hard for him. I would really like to see him take some initiative and actually help town out. He continues to fail to deliver in this department, which would leave me to believe that his complete apathy and lack of involvement in this game is indeed scum-driven.
I will keep my vote on Sandroba for the time being. Syllo has all but proven himself to be town at this point, and I will change my vote from Sandroba only if he somehow believes he isn't scum after his latest post. This only because I don't feel my scumread on Sandroba is strong enough without the reaffirmation. And yes, sheeping makes me a hypotwit...
I am going to now focus my attention on TheChronicler and Kitaman He allows himself a way to vote away from Sand which is just a sheep vote. A pre-excused sheep vote. That is totally a thing townies + Show Spoiler + do. Really? Townies never sheep? This is an absolutely ridiculous statement I will just leave it at that… And I clearly explained there were other aspects that led me to suspect Sand was scum. Townies don't create preconceived reasons to sheep, which was what Promethelax was saying. Claiming your vote on Sand was pressure gives you a way to jump off of him, while looking the part of concerned townie. It is the very thing that scum would do to ensure they can go with the flow. But instead of addressing the scum motive and explaining why he wasn't doing that, he calls the accusation ridiculous and pushes ahead. I personally consider self-voting a scumtell in most situations. There is no townie reasoning more powerful than LYNCH SCUM. Intentionally playing against your win-con creates an emotional argument instead of a rational one, and emotional arguments lead to raging, yelling, and chaos. If you are town, you should never have to vote for yourself. We should have access to his night actions via the players he's masoned with. I'm trusting them to reveal if things don't look right until we have a chance to properly lynch him. I have a marginal scumread on GK.
Reading Phagga's responses next
Let me address these issues one by one:
Regarding "Meta":
If you really believe my scum game could change so wildly from my meta over such a short time I suppose that's up to you...
Regarding "Sheeping":
It wasn't a full-on sheep. There was other reasoning behind it. In the quote below I discuss why I chose Sandroba over Toad. It wasn't merely a sheep vote, it was also based on his behavior.:
On November 25 2012 05:49 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 05:43 Clarity_nl wrote:
@ goodkarma
If you think they're both equal but you voted for Sandro first and that's why you stay, consider that Toad has actually stayed active but produced just as much content as Toad. This is a good point, but it's not like Sandro has been perma-afk or anything. He has been incredibly inactive, but when he has been here he has had nothing to contribute except in defense of himself. This has been brought up before, but it is the same kind of scumtell as you're using for the case against Toad. I won't be upset if Toad is lynched. However, that syllo is on Sandro, and I know that syllo is town, is enough to tip the scales in favor of lynching sandro for me.
Regarding the "Pressure Vote":
I already explained this in the Prox. case:
On November 29 2012 22:14 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 11:01 Promethelax wrote:-snip- in cycle two the first thing GK does is On November 23 2012 18:47 goodkarma wrote:
I am entirely opposed to troll(CaveJohnson) hunting at present. I am not as confident as some seem to be that, based off his current anti-town dialogue, he has demonstrated he in fact is mafia.
On the other hand, if Sandroba's meta (as stated by others here) is to be believed, he is a clear choice as a lynching candidate for today. He has gone into hardcore lurker mode, which normally is something I wouldn't consider a tell. However, as a player of his reputation that plays so well as town to disappear as he has, I deem voting to lynch him appropriate. I would like to hear what he has to say to explain his current complete lack of caring since very early this game. And until he does:
##Vote: Sandroba based on unconfirmed meta. Remember that town read? Yeah, neither does GK. You know what he says though? On November 24 2012 00:47 goodkarma wrote:On November 23 2012 21:51 sandroba wrote:
Oh my it seems I'm the only person in the game that doesn't get to have a real life every so often. I spent the night at a girl's house ytd and only got home now. I thought I would give the thread a quick read before heading to bed (yes my sleep schedule is severely fucked up) and I see that suddenly I became the main wagon. Nice. Weekend is ahead and it will be extremelly busy and now I have to fight syllo induced mislynch just to prob face the same problem again the next day. Thx. I'll be here briefily if anyone want to interact, but I'm heading to bed.
I took 125 dmg and got roleblocked.
By all means irl things happen. But that doesn't mean that your absence isn't scum-motivated... For what it's worth, though, lurker is not equal to scum, and my vote on you was more of a pressure vote. I can excuse you had irl things going on, but would certainly hope that you are more active for the remainder of the game. I would like to see these amazing scumhunting abilities that other players strongly believe you to be capable of. a pressure vote. Pressure! He called some one "a clear choice as a lynching candidate for today." and referred to his vote o that player as a pressure vote. Okay. So who is GK lying to? Himself or town? This was to encourage him to become more active in thread. The thing you conveniently neglect to mention is my vote never went off of Sandroba (until I thought he was going to be modkilled). As such, I don’t see any inconsistencies here. Again, though, spell out for me the scum motivation. You seem to be obsessed with looking for inconsistencies that both: 1) don’t exist, and 2) say nothing about how I as scum would gain anything from acting as I did…
"Regarding Self-voting":
On December 01 2012 00:56 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 00:48 Oatsmaster wrote:
why did you vote yourself in the first place? As I just said, I was frustrated with this game. I was thinking that after I flip town, people would finally get their acts together. As in, consider what I've just presented: what is (at least in my humble opinion) a rather definitive writeup showing exactly why phagga and strong are scum (by process of elimination: their actions are scummy, and nearly everyone else can be pegged as 3rd party or town). If people won't let me contribute by actually considering what I tell them, then death is my greatest contribution... At least that was my line of thought at the time.
I have previously addressed all the issues that have led you to a scum read on me. So don't say I haven't...
Going to briefly discuss VE's case next...
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No one really is by this point. I'm not disputing the fact that mafia realizes that they can not do anything right now. No one is making any attempts, because it's not possible. I'm not convinced that he is mafia, I just think it is likely. Doesn't matter much though until we get our next lynch. I will say that I would rather include some of these lurking players in the party than him.
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On December 01 2012 06:30 Clarity_nl wrote:
I actually did not remember that. Dunno how I read over that twice.
How do you feel about his "if we fail it's obviously me and I'd never do this as scum"?
It's a bullshit argument because we have no idea how many lynches we will get before the end of the game, and we already had two red checks at the time that had to be taken care of (ofc, that was before Acro claimed 3p).
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On December 01 2012 06:31 syllogism wrote:
No one really is by this point. I'm not disputing the fact that mafia realizes that they can not do anything right now. No one is making any attempts, because it's not possible. I'm not convinced that he is mafia, I just think it is likely. Doesn't matter much though until we get our next lynch. I will say that I would rather include some of these lurking players in the party than him.
Just a quick question, but could you humor me and tell me a scum motivation for Hapa to lie about taking damage (or healing for that matter)? I can't think of any reason he'd feel motivated to lie about this, as town or scum...
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On December 01 2012 06:35 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 06:31 syllogism wrote:
No one really is by this point. I'm not disputing the fact that mafia realizes that they can not do anything right now. No one is making any attempts, because it's not possible. I'm not convinced that he is mafia, I just think it is likely. Doesn't matter much though until we get our next lynch. I will say that I would rather include some of these lurking players in the party than him. Just a quick question, but could you humor me and tell me a scum motivation for Hapa to lie about taking damage (or healing for that matter)? I can't think of any reason he'd feel motivated to lie about this, as town or scum...
If you are looking townie, then people will interpret the source of damage to be scum. Therefore claiming damage makes you look townier (in fact, it makes you look like valuable town, because scum is trying to off you).
Toad claiming the shot "confirms" that this damage came from a scum source.
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On that note, does anybody feel like claiming they shot Hapa for 50 damage on N3?
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Actually, Toad claiming the damage is a pretty big thing that I didn't notice.
Too many things not adding up with Hapa. I think it's pretty likely that he is scum at this point.
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I'm getting turned around on it too, and if that is the case then phagga likely isn't. Ahhhh 
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His anger makes much more sense if he is scum who "got caught" by mechanics, that might be why it felt genuine.
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One thing that has been bothering me, though: why the fuck isn't syllo dead yet? Or even taking any damage?
I can't imagine a scumteam, after having lost the day 1 election and then lost sandro day 2, to allow a town syllo with a ton of town cred to still be alive.
I'm not really sure what to make of it, though. Maybe they just haven't thought he was a threat because he hasn't been very active? I can't convince myself that he's scum, because of the day 1 party, but it doesn't make much sense.
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Perhaps they shot me day 2 and your protection stopped the damage or they just assumed that I would be protected every cycle. Either way I agree that mafia KP usage has been terrible based on what we know.
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On December 01 2012 06:52 syllogism wrote:
Perhaps they shot me day 2 and your protection stopped the damage or they just assumed that I would be protected every cycle. Either way I agree that mafia KP usage has been terrible based on what we know.
Does not seem likely unless you think scum blew through a bunch of 1-shot abilities cycle 3 to kill marv.
More likely is they "saved" their cycle 2 kp and used it cycle 3.
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EPT
