|
On November 28 2012 04:00 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 03:58 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 03:52 Hapahauli wrote:On November 28 2012 03:42 Keirathi wrote:On November 28 2012 02:38 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 02:26 risk.nuke wrote:On November 28 2012 01:50 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 01:46 risk.nuke wrote:On November 28 2012 01:43 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 01:39 risk.nuke wrote:
If you're third party and you're good for town why don't you want to say what you want to do, you're asking us to trust you leaving you alive is in towns best interest. What third party have 1-shot cop. I can't say what I need to do, because anybody with Chrono Trigger lore knowledge will probably be able to figure out who I am. As there's probably mechanisms to prevent that from being a good idea, you'll just have to trust me. Have I given you any reason not to trust me? Lets put it this way, If you were third party who's objective would hurt town. Would you claim that or something in the lines of what you just did? I would lie my ass off. However, I would probably not be leaking 3rd party on all sides. I am a better player than that and you should know it. I played the way I did precisely because I am helping town. If you have any specific accusations, go ahead and make them. You were suspected as scum even with the play you've played. Playing worse might had gotten you lynched already. You're asking us to trust you but you should understand there is no way that's going to happen. Really? I was in danger of being lynched? I want some of what you're smoking. Votes on Acro D2: 0. People who wanted to take me to the prom D3: 2 claimed before I put an end to it. The next lynch is pretty much locked in on Toad, so I didn't have to fear that either. When exactly was I in ANY danger of being lynched?! I was clearly suspected of being scum. Only person who even voiced that was Syllo and he said it without having read my filter. Stop throwing suspicion around unwarranted. Anyway, who said that I would have played WORSE? I would probably have played a lot SAFER. Like, I would not have looked so ridiculously townie that people wanted to take me along for the ride on D3, forcing me to claim I didn't want to. So. Why are you misrepresenting what happened just to be suspicious of me? In fact, what have you DONE this game? Are you the guy who has to kill me? Hey, you forgot about me!  In all seriousness, I'm not really sure what to do about you. I mentioned the things I found off about your play this game to Hapa. And third party could definitely explain them. My problem, of course, is that so could scum. In a game with a limited amount of lynches, as it seems, third party survivor makes a ton of sense for scum to fake-claim. Anyways, does your role PM specifically mention someone "hunting" you, so to speak? If so, why the hell did you claim at all? If not, why is your default assumption that there is someone looking for you? I think Toad fits a 3rd party read to a T. The guy is incredibly active, and largely pro-town, with some slightly "off" things in his filter. That's a really classic example of a third party. But since we all think that Toad is 99.9% scum, consider this: Acro was the first person to build a significant case and push Toad's lynch. On top of this, he did this on D2, when Sandroba was the consensus lynch. There is no conceivable way that Scum would turn down an easy bussing opportunity to bus another of their teammates. Makes no damn sense from a mafia perspective. Herpaderp. PARITY CHECK. SAME as Sandroba. The 0.1% chance is in the event that he got double-framed or something. Super super unlikely yes, but just acknowledging the remote possibility. You seem to be arguing semantics though, since I wouldn't dream of lynching/killing anyone else before him.
I assume you meant Acro in that first sentence, not Toad, right?
|
@ Acro
I"m curious, do you think risk is scum? I'm generally worried about going after "lynch-bait" type players, but his play does seem genuinely scummy, especially weighing his crazier//less-consistent town games.
|
On November 28 2012 04:04 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 04:00 Hapahauli wrote:On November 28 2012 03:58 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 03:52 Hapahauli wrote:On November 28 2012 03:42 Keirathi wrote:On November 28 2012 02:38 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 02:26 risk.nuke wrote:On November 28 2012 01:50 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 01:46 risk.nuke wrote:On November 28 2012 01:43 Acrofales wrote:
[quote]
I can't say what I need to do, because anybody with Chrono Trigger lore knowledge will probably be able to figure out who I am. As there's probably mechanisms to prevent that from being a good idea, you'll just have to trust me.
Have I given you any reason not to trust me? Lets put it this way, If you were third party who's objective would hurt town. Would you claim that or something in the lines of what you just did? I would lie my ass off. However, I would probably not be leaking 3rd party on all sides. I am a better player than that and you should know it. I played the way I did precisely because I am helping town. If you have any specific accusations, go ahead and make them. You were suspected as scum even with the play you've played. Playing worse might had gotten you lynched already. You're asking us to trust you but you should understand there is no way that's going to happen. Really? I was in danger of being lynched? I want some of what you're smoking. Votes on Acro D2: 0. People who wanted to take me to the prom D3: 2 claimed before I put an end to it. The next lynch is pretty much locked in on Toad, so I didn't have to fear that either. When exactly was I in ANY danger of being lynched?! I was clearly suspected of being scum. Only person who even voiced that was Syllo and he said it without having read my filter. Stop throwing suspicion around unwarranted. Anyway, who said that I would have played WORSE? I would probably have played a lot SAFER. Like, I would not have looked so ridiculously townie that people wanted to take me along for the ride on D3, forcing me to claim I didn't want to. So. Why are you misrepresenting what happened just to be suspicious of me? In fact, what have you DONE this game? Are you the guy who has to kill me? Hey, you forgot about me! In all seriousness, I'm not really sure what to do about you. I mentioned the things I found off about your play this game to Hapa. And third party could definitely explain them. My problem, of course, is that so could scum. In a game with a limited amount of lynches, as it seems, third party survivor makes a ton of sense for scum to fake-claim. Anyways, does your role PM specifically mention someone "hunting" you, so to speak? If so, why the hell did you claim at all? If not, why is your default assumption that there is someone looking for you? I think Toad fits a 3rd party read to a T. The guy is incredibly active, and largely pro-town, with some slightly "off" things in his filter. That's a really classic example of a third party. But since we all think that Toad is 99.9% scum, consider this: Acro was the first person to build a significant case and push Toad's lynch. On top of this, he did this on D2, when Sandroba was the consensus lynch. There is no conceivable way that Scum would turn down an easy bussing opportunity to bus another of their teammates. Makes no damn sense from a mafia perspective. Herpaderp. PARITY CHECK. SAME as Sandroba. The 0.1% chance is in the event that he got double-framed or something. Super super unlikely yes, but just acknowledging the remote possibility. You seem to be arguing semantics though, since I wouldn't dream of lynching/killing anyone else before him. I assume you meant Acro in that first sentence, not Toad, right?
Oh fuck yes Acro. Acroacroacro.
|
Spain18399 Posts
On November 28 2012 04:04 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Acro
I"m curious, do you think risk is scum? I'm generally worried about going after "lynch-bait" type players, but his play does seem genuinely scummy, especially weighing his crazier//less-consistent town games.
I will have to read his filter with more care before I make any definite statement about him. I have had reservations about him for a while, but he was in the "null" list until he reacted really weirdly to my claim. His reaction seems really weird for town.
Honestly, I don't feel like adding more suspects to the table right now. It's getting to the point where it's counterproductive, because there is no way of verifying for a long time, which increases paranoia and speculation.
I definitely wouldn't trust risk at the moment.
|
Strongandbig reads not-mafia to me, unless he is playing for really long term. He didn't push to get sandro or toad elected (voted kita, but assuming kita isn't mafia for now), didn't oppose sandro lynch and seems rather carefree despite being inactive. He hasn't asked to be included in the party. From what I could tell, his day 1 reasoning looked genuine.
The thing is, unless mafia is just rolling over someone like Hapa has to be mafia. It doesn't matter if these lurking mafia get away with it if they never get a chance to be in a party. I suppose things may get trickier in a few cycles, but still it's such weak play.
|
|
|
Spain18399 Posts
Keirathi: I just reread your posts. What in my interactions with Hapa has been weird. In fact, I can't even remember having any significant interactions with Hapa at all.
I have to admit that I have payed little attention to Hapa this game. I was on high alert D1 when he suddenly went nuts and wanted to run for leader at the last moment. I then reread him to see if I wanted to lynch him and decided I didn't. I dismissed him as someone to be figured out later. That later has not yet happened.
|
On November 28 2012 04:15 Acrofales wrote:
Keirathi: I just reread your posts. What in my interactions with Hapa has been weird. In fact, I can't even remember having any significant interactions with Hapa at all.
I have to admit that I have payed little attention to Hapa this game. I was on high alert D1 when he suddenly went nuts and wanted to run for leader at the last moment. I then reread him to see if I wanted to lynch him and decided I didn't. I dismissed him as someone to be figured out later. That later has not yet happened.
Nono, I meant I pointed out to Hapa last night the reasons that I thought that between you and Hopeless, I wasn't positive that you were the one that was town. But you either didn't read it, or didn't consider it to have credible points, because you commented on sandro having a scum read on you but didn't mention me.
|
Btw Kei, do you agree with me on Acro or not (regarding mafia motivation for his case on Toad)?
|
@Acro: For reference (read the entire conversation in the quotes):
On November 27 2012 13:49 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 13:37 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2012 13:34 Keirathi wrote:On November 27 2012 13:31 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2012 13:27 Keirathi wrote:On November 27 2012 13:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2012 13:22 Keirathi wrote:
TC has a parity check on Acro and Hopeless. They are different alignments. Ohhhh. So Hopeless is scum then. Well guess my last thing on him was quite wrong then. I'm pretty on the fence about which one of the two are scum. I mean, a case can definitely be made for Hopeless being scum. Hell, they HAVE been made. But I could make a case that Acro is scum too :o Not to mention the fact that TC checked Acro vs Hopeless is weird as fuck to begin with. Well the check makes sense given Hopeless's rather strange attitude toward Acro (and Z-Bo). Given the two, I'd take Acro as the townie in a heartbeat. There is of course the outside chance that there's a mafia-framer type ability somewhere, but thankfully all this is after we lynch Toad ofc. Yes, checking Hopeless makes sense. Checking him against someone who's still an "unknown" rather than against one of the near-confirmed town people is what doesn't make sense. Why not check him against, say, Dieno? And there are just too many weird things about Acro for me to ignore. Do tell. To me he seems pretty engaged with things. I don't know what he's capable of as scum, but his filter looks pretty townie at first glance. First, the whole One-Shot Role Cop with a red check on Toad, but doesn't claim it until AFTER TC comes in claiming a parity check with Toad being scum. One-Shot Cop with a red check is an insanely easy way to claim towncred, especially if your teammate has already been outed and likely to be lynched. I will admit that he could have just been thinking "oh, there's no lynch today, so no real reason to claim right now" if he was town and then only claimed he also had a red check on Toad because TC had already claimed. It's hard to determine which one is more likely though, so its a minor point, but I'm paranoid  Then, he refused to be put into the party yesterday. And refuses to explain why. I'm not the only one who thought that was fishy. Again, a minor point, but it makes me second guess my earlier town read, because I don't see much motivation for a person who knows that he is town to flat out refuse to be in the party, without giving some kind of explanation. And then, of course, the parity check. Like I said, none of the things in and of themselves are super strong points, but how many little "weird, logically improbable" things does it take before that person becomes scum?
|
On November 28 2012 04:20 Hapahauli wrote:
Btw Kei, do you agree with me on Acro or not (regarding mafia motivation for his case on Toad)?
Occam's Razor says yes, you are right.
I could make other assessments, but I don't feel like they are particularly super likely, nor constructive.
But his claim with the assumption that someone is "hunting" him just doesn't make sense.
|
Spain18399 Posts
Yeah, I remember that post. I figured they were all fairly honest points. I have explained my reasoning for both the check claim: what was the point without a lynch? I also don't think it would have been any more convincing. I was already well on the case against Toad. Claiming a 1-shot DT check confirming him as scum would only have made the him vs. me dichotomy worse... and allowing Toad to capitalize on hypnotoad ability to completely shit up a thread.
You should, however, see that my behaviour towards TC flipped 180 degrees after that claim. During D2 I was pressuring him pretty hard about his inconsistent behaviour. At the end of D2 I concluded this about his behaviour:
On November 25 2012 03:37 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 03:23 TheChronicler wrote:On November 25 2012 03:12 Acrofales wrote:On November 25 2012 02:20 TheChronicler wrote:On November 24 2012 19:53 Acrofales wrote:
TheChronicler
I am glad your thought process is finally becoming clear and I am starting to see why you think there is no contradiction there. Let me go through it with you and see if I understand you this time round. If any point is wrong, please correct it, or if the whole thing is wrong, please say so. We will get to questions and considerations afterwards.
1. You have no confidence in your own D1 scum or town reads.
2a. You extrapolate from that that nobody else can be right in their D1 reads either.
2b. Or you have seen so many D1 mislynches that you conclude town sucks at picking scum and therefore also sucks at picking town.
3. Therefore the best town can do when facing the problem of picking not one, but four town reads on D1 is to choose pretty much at random and pray that we're right.
4. Your plan would probably fail the event (but that is unimportant, because we would probably fail the event anyway, see point 3), but would give us insight into who picked whom and based on what reasoning. We could then use this to scumhunt in the rest of the game.
Further considerations are that you would pick your scumreads to give their preferred party member and not town reads.
Is this assessment correct? Please also indicate whether you feel 2a or 2b is most accurate, or both are considerations you had in mind? Both 2a and 2b. Someone pointed out earlier that there are cases like crazy claims that almost have to be town, so there is that, but picking someone like Keir to be on the team seems absurd to me. Why not pick someone like Marv (who didn't even run iirc)? I think 4 is worded unfairly, but yes. Okay, moving on. I cannot fathom why you voted Syllo. Please explain it again. From my point of view: you think chance of success at the event is very small. You don't think Syllo can actually read townies, so it's like flipping a coin whether we succeed or not. All you hope to obtain from the event is information and Syllo offers you the least of it. Why vote Syllo, with as reason that CJ is opposed to Syllo. Rather than Hapa, Kita, Toad or Sandroba, who were all giving information about why they were picking their team, which insofar as I understand you, equates to more information. How did the others give more information? Every candidate's thing was "we pick town reads". Who cares if someone's reads are invisible until after event. That has no impact on the information we end up with. Cj's nonsense pushed me to a sylo vote, and that's pretty much it. I give up. You keep contradicting yourself. I don't know what to make of it. I see it as scum, but apparently I am the only one (or one of the few). Trying to figure out how your brain works is about as useful as trying to figure out Kush. The only way to make sense of you is through meta and you are deliberately withholding that. I am done talking to you. Marv, Syllo, Toad, Kita, Sand: you guys really don't get scum vibes from this guy? He has not held his story straight once. Now I know inconsistency is not a scum trait, but it makes it impossible to determine the motivation behind the actions, and the only reason I can think of wanting to do that is for scum.
D3 the first time I mention him is:
On November 25 2012 11:05 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 10:34 Oatsmaster wrote:
Chronicler.
Hmm is there a scum reason for doing this?
YES THERE IS. Toad was under pressure last cycle, chronicler was also under pressure. So fake a 'dt' check and BAM TOAD IS SCUM There is no doubt in my mind that the man is telling the truth. Lay off him.
I don't think I could have made it any clearer that I had some information that corroborated his claim. People are just so fucking terrible at taking hints in this game, though. People continued to doubt the claim. Toad counterclaimed. I tried the "I'm certain you're lying approach", but he wouldn't shut up. I felt the only way of putting the argument to rest was to provide the full information. I wanted the coffin nailed tightly shut, you will notice that he was contesting the claim at first. Since the second check he vanished from the thread completely. Pretty much the effect I wanted to get from Toad. Imagine LI, but with an unknown, but > 48 hours before we would be able to kill Toad. Shit dude, that's scary.
Regarding my not wanting to be in the party: I believe I have explained that adequately?
|
On November 28 2012 02:26 TheChronicler wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 01:31 Acrofales wrote:
Shit. You people, can't you keep your conclusions about survivors to yourselves?
Seeing as the cat's pretty much out of the bag, I confirm I'm 3rd party. My wincon is to survive and do some stuff that I am not telling anybody about. I promise that the extra stuff is in town's best interest. Not saying anything more, because I suspect there are other people out there who have to kill me. Otherwise Drazerk's solution to playing a survivor will always work: claim D1 and go AFK (or in this case, claim D1 and help town to figure out how to fulfill the other part of my wincon, THEN go AFK).
This is also immediately the reason I don't want to be on a party. I asked Greymist whether my influence counts with town or scum, or whether I could choose. He told me that I cannot choose and that he's not saying what my influence counts as. I have no way of knowing my hidden influence factor. So.. no. There is no contradiction between my not wanting to be on the party and being really surprised at Keirathi's claim.
Think about it, though: scum was probably not feeling too comfortable on D3. D1 went town's way, D2 went further town's way. Why would they NOT want to take any opportunity to get on the party? Claiming not wanting to be on the party would be a ridiculously stupid move, unless you think scum is so afraid of being caught out through the party mechanic that they are going to hide all game while town figures them out and kills them one by one on the few lynch days we get?
Oh, I can claim some other stuff: I have a load of one-shot abilities, but don't know what they do. Part of my suspicions of Drazerk are founded on this: he claims to be able to figure out what his abilities do before using them. I am unable and have to use them and pray. I can make an educated guess using common sense and some help from the chronopedia to figure out what is likely, but I cannot know for certain. Not giving ability names either, as they are 100% linked to my character name.
On D1 I used an ability that I thought would mason me with 3 other people. Instead it did 75 damage to each of them. I hit Sandroba, Dienosore and BioSC with it. I wanted to chat with Sandroba and BioSC to figure out if they were scum or not. I wanted to chat with Dienosore about setup-related stuff that largely got resolved in the thread.
I already said what I did D2.
D3 I cannot reveal, as it says too much about me. This is the only one I breadcrumbed, though, so if I ever feel safe in claiming my name in full, you will be able to check it.
@Hopeless1derp: I have called you an idiot too many times this game, already, but here goes again. On the offchance you are really town (which I really don't think): you're an idiot. OF COURSE you want Lavos to appear when scum is dead. Fairly certain killing Lavos with scum alive is going to be harder than killing him with scum dead. It doesn't look like there's much opportunity to kill scum, so wasting whatever abilities you have to kill scum on me is beyond ridiculous. I also have rather a lot of HP and things that I really really suspect are heals.
There is 0 point to killing me and I am helping town as best I can. I have done more scumhunting than pretty much anybody except Marv. I was wrong on Sandroba, so /shrug. However, I DID find Toad. If you prefer I shut up and go afk for the rest of the game, say so. I am happy to leave you derps derping it up. This time I don't give a shit if the endgame has Kushes Fubas and Proms in it: I just need to not get killed once I have completed my other condition, which I am fairly confident I can do without your help. *cough* *cough* I'm broke. I have no more checks, I can't protect anyone else. There's a reason I didn't check hopeless against Toad. There's a reason I didn't check YOU against Toad. Clarity between the two of us that means Marv took something greater than or equal to 550 damage if I'm adding correctly?
Ehm, if this was used on marv:
On November 27 2012 10:55 TheChronicler wrote:
I'm going to claim my last night action since it's relevant and why I feel I shouldn't be party leader, but should be on the team.
100 gold Funnel cake You target a player. Places a 100 damage shield on target player (stays on them). You take 100 damage.
Night Results
You used Funnel cake!
You took 150 damage!
And isn't a lie, then yes. Marv took 550 damage last cycle.
|
We have to consider the possibility that scum can withhold kp, or they had a 1-shot instakill (which would be weird to hold for so long only to use it on marv anyway)
|
I have had time to read up on TC and I agree with Dieno that he would probably be the best 4th pick right now, despite some terrible plays this game.
This makes my party identical to that of Dieno's, unfortunately, so the only thing I have to run on is the fact that iamp more than likely healed me up to full, so any item given to me will be better than having it on Dieno.
If anyone disagrees with this I would love an explanation, but until such time I expect your votes.
|
Spain18399 Posts
On November 28 2012 04:24 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 04:20 Hapahauli wrote:
Btw Kei, do you agree with me on Acro or not (regarding mafia motivation for his case on Toad)? Occam's Razor says yes, you are right. I could make other assessments, but I don't feel like they are particularly super likely, nor constructive. But his claim with the assumption that someone is "hunting" him just doesn't make sense.
The assumption is based on setup speculation. Survivors are not fun unless there is a risk of NOT surviving. That risk cannot come purely from scum or town, because then there is the possibility of simply claiming D1 and going afk. That risk could come from an SK, who has to kill everybody before some other faction wins. In that case my claim made no difference. I also think SK in this setup is probably an unwinnable role, so I dismissed that. That leaves the threat of someone who has to kill me. Whether that person actually exists or not? I dunno. But the possibility is enough to make me not want to claim my name.
I don't think I increased the risk by claiming 3P, because I was already pretty much outed. If you have the wincon to kill someone you expect is 3P, you are extra-hyper-alert to that kinda thing. Therefore when Djodref blatantly throws it out there and people agree with him, you can bet your ass whoever may or may not be after me was already gunning for me.
The fact that I took no damage last night is actually an indicator that nobody is after me. I thought it was already fairly obvious by my behaviour towards Keirathi that I was 3P. I'm still not gonna risk it, though.
|
|
|
Spain18399 Posts
On November 28 2012 04:50 Clarity_nl wrote:
I have had time to read up on TC and I agree with Dieno that he would probably be the best 4th pick right now, despite some terrible plays this game.
This makes my party identical to that of Dieno's, unfortunately, so the only thing I have to run on is the fact that iamp more than likely healed me up to full, so any item given to me will be better than having it on Dieno.
If anyone disagrees with this I would love an explanation, but until such time I expect your votes.
My vote is fine where it is. I don't care which one of you, Dieno or Keirathi leads the party. I also don't think there's a significant difference between giving you, Dieno or Keirathi the item. Therefore my vote is fine where it is.
|
Except for the fact that we know Dieno took a boatload of damage already.
|
On November 28 2012 04:54 TheChronicler wrote:
I'm an idiot.
?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
