| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 07 2012 08:51 Clarity_nl wrote: Who? Djod? Or Obzy?@ Rad Do you believe his behavior in his last couple of posts is consistent with his behavior in the rest of the game Actually I'd like Alsn to answer this too. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 07 2012 08:59 da0ud wrote: Like I stated earlier in response to sylver.I personally think that if we had confirmed all the VTs it would only have made sense for scum to kill them at night and not the blue. They want to keep uncertainty and don't want to be outnumbered by VTs. I think this is as well the reason Debears got killed cause he is the one who got the most genuine reaction to CC claim. If it was possible to 100% no doubt whatsoever confirm every VT in the game the game would be over. Unless there are more than 2 blue players, all the VTs would have to do is vote out a non-vt every day. Even if they mislynch the blue players twice in a row, they would still be 3 VT vs 2 scum at the beginning of D3. The fact remains, there's no way to confirm all the VTs because anyone(blue or scum) could just lie and say that they are VT. Stop discussing it please, it leads nowhere. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:51 Clarity_nl wrote: To be fair, I see only two possibilities right now. Either you're right and he's actually scum, or he's actually quite good at making reads, just not particularly confident about them.EBWOP Oh I'm confusing myself now, I asked you earlier if obzy contradicted himself. I mean his behavior. Suddenly he is giving me advice and acting like an analytical genius. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 07 2012 10:01 Clarity_nl wrote: No you're right, but I was just pointing out that if he's not scum I think your statement was a nice compliment. If everyone is going to base their reads off of the fact that I made an argument for or against it, we're not going to get anywhere.  | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
Clarity is most likely lying, as I do not think there would be a second Cop. The reason for that is that I'm cop. I knew that Djod was telling the truth about roleblocking me last night, but I wasn't sure how "sure" I could be about his roleclaim being correct. I know I was because I did not get a result. I investigated Obzy last night because I was worried about him having such a strong town read on both me and Rad(who I at the time thought was town). My terrible crumb for that claim can be found here: + Show Spoiler + On November 06 2012 07:03 Alsn wrote: Ok, just would like to say that I've been looking over Clarity and Djodref today. I feel like Clarity has a good chance of being town. He tried to break up the fight between debears and Rad over the percentage, he made a case against debears at a time where I thought myself that debears might be scum. I don't get the feeling that he's only trying to stay consistent. If he was worried about that I don't think he would have jumped on Cheese for the claim as hard as he did. Since a scum Clarity would have known that Cheese was town, I'd be much more suspicious of him if he chickened out and voted debears in order to stay consistent. Instead he attacked Cheese pretty hard for claiming, something which was sure to bring him a lot of attention seeing as he would have known how the Cheese lynch would end. I'm however not as sure about Djod. He's definitely acting like I would expect a town Djod to act(acting like Clarity has "lost" the game and should just reveal his partner and stuff like that definitely fits with town Djod from XXVIII. I also don't see why he would ask about scum mechanics(framer mechanics, specifically) out in the open if he was scum. Nor why he would attack Cheese(who a scum Djod would know was town) for joking. All those things considered, I find most of his accusations to be really empty, like he's looking for "excuses" to attack someone, rather than actually considering their motives. He attacks sylver for vote pressuring, something which Cheese pointed out and that I commended him for, but I dismissed it later because I was thinking "nah, that's just Djod!". His case against Clarity then accuses clarity of blending in and not following up on his reads. Yet Clarity actually gave pretty convincing answers for why he hadn't done so. He kept saying he was going to make a case in the latter half of D1, he did. He had also stated that well before Djod made his case against him. The latter half of Djod's case against Clarity is seeing ghosts where there are none. He accuses Clarity of denying making a list but the post Djod quotes says nothing of the sort. I'm suspecting maybe there's some confirmation bias shenanigans going on here, but I can see where Cheese was coming from with regards to how hard it is to read Djod. That being said, if there aren't any other scummy looking people tomorrow, Djod is looking like my vote is best placed for now. I haven't yet looked into sylver very much since the beginning half of D1, but we have two days. I'm thinking I might need to look at Obzy next, or possibly Rad as I don't have much other than that I like their posting so far. And I'd also like it if da0ud answered my question from earlier today. With that, I feel like things need to start rolling again before I know for sure who I want to lynch tomorrow. I'm off to sleep, although I can check in after I finish watching the DS9 episode I'm currently watching if anyone wants to know something. Unfortunately, I didn't really expect that I wouldn't be able to breadcrumb my result and that was the best I could come up with for my good night post. I investigated him because I thought he'd be the least likely of being framed, and because I knew if there was a possible framer, a green check was more reliable than a red check. I also read in Ace's vigi/cop guide that investigating "lynch bait" was bad form, so I went with the highest scum read I had at the time that was in no danger of being lynched. However, I have a breadcrumb for my actual role. On November 05 2012 10:17 Alsn wrote: Snut = Swedish slang for cop, snut film = cop movie. Go google translate swedish -> english and type "snut" if you'd like. Djod, thanks for the inspiration as it's outright plagiarism of your XXVIII claim.This flavour... I feel like I'm part of a snut film or some weird fanfic. But well, that truly sucks, I seriously hoped I was actually right because this is a pretty shitty situation. It would have been way better if people had been forced to actually vote for someone with reasoning other than pretty much the entire wagon sheeping. That being said, I'm confident that there's something of value among all these votes and the chaos pre-lynch. That'll have to wait for tomorrow however as I really need to be getting some sleep. I was pretty worried that Djod was on the wrong track with Clarity when I went to bed last night. Suffice to say, I'm not any longer. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
Unfortunately, I think the claim was bait to get me to claim due to scum seeing Clarity as a lost cause but things being as they were I didn't want to risk Clarity getting away. I guess I'll just have to be happy with being a glorified VT. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
I will need to leave for a couple of hours soon, but I'll only be gone for max two hours and then I'll be around until lynch. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 08 2012 00:03 sylverfyre wrote: "Plan"? What in my statement was anywhere complicated enough that it constitutes a "plan"? I don't see any scenario where trying to "catch" the last scum with the JK roleblock is anything but the optimal strategy, known or not. Trying to protect anyone from being killed when you also have a roleblock attached is silly imho. Going after someone who's scummy(and revealing the name) is by far the best option. If he hits scum, scum can't NK or frame or roleblock at all that night. If he doesn't, the entire thread gains information equal to a cop check with only one exception, if scum decides not to kill anyone. It's a win-win.Kinda wish you let djo come to his own conclusion on that. Now scum knows the Night action plan too. Though I guess if Djo doesn't like it, the scum ends up in a WIFOM situation trying to outsmart the blue powers? | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
Oh, that's unfortunate about the JK roleblock thing. Hopefully either Clarity is the roleblocker or there isn't a roleblocker(since he said he was roleblocked in order to get out of having to share a cop read, it might mean that he wanted to be able to roleblock people in order to keep his story straight if we somehow didn't lynch him). | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 08 2012 02:45 Djodref wrote: Yes, I'm pretty convinced of that. I'm just not sure if it's sylver or Rad. Rad has been doing some pretty damn fish anti-town moves all throughout this day while I find sylver's scum motives to be unlikely. That being said, it's not like sylver is some patron saint of townieness at this stage. I think the biggest thing pointing in his favour of being town is his fixation on a cheese/debears scum team late D1 in combination with cheese being lynched and then going on and NKing debears. I suppose it makes sense that the only one that had been on their side on D1(me) had abandoned the debears scum cause, so they figured they'd get rid of him since I considered him town. But yea.@Alsn I have a very good feeling when I see Obzy and daoud acknoledge each other. My town read on them is reinforced. Nice job guys ! Good grasp of the situation  Would you also conclude that the remaining scum is sylver or Rad ? Either way, once Clarity flips we will be 5 town vs 1 scum. Even assuming the worst(that you are wrong about sylver being scum or that the last scum is roleblocker and can kill Djod) we will be 4 town vs 1 scum D3, so we can afford one mislynch no matter what. | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
| ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On November 08 2012 02:45 Djodref wrote: Djod, keep in mind at this point, there's basically no gain whatsoever for scum to oppose the Clarity lynch for any reason. If scum for some reason isn't sylver or possibly Rad, that person would have everything to gain from sucking up to you and your master plan like you're the messiah or something.@Alsn I have a very good feeling when I see Obzy and daoud acknoledge each other. My town read on them is reinforced. Nice job guys ! Good grasp of the situation Would you also conclude that the remaining scum is sylver or Rad ? | ||
|
Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
So, assuming that I'm right and there's no framer, we can probably assume that if Clarity flips RB, his partner is a goon. While if he flips goon, the odds of his partner being roleblocker goes up dramatically(although framer isn't entirely out of the picture like I mentioned above). | ||
| ||
|
|
Monday Night Weeklies
GSL
OSC
PiGosaur Cup
Kung Fu Cup
Replay Cast
The PondCast
IntoTheTV X SOOP
CranKy Ducklings
Sparkling Tuna Cup
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
