EPTAnd you wonder why I keep going back to only directing my points about you to other people?
Aperture Mafia 2: Portal Edition - Page 66
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
And you wonder why I keep going back to only directing my points about you to other people? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
N2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=38#749 : "Oh look, so if we want to treat Keirathi and SNB as semi-confirmed (We can always leave them till MYLO/LYLO and nuke them if we haven't disproven that theory by then, since they've at least claimed buddies),..." D3: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=47#931 : "Possibly to include Draz, although his play smells like vengeful or village idiot. It's like he wants to get a vigi hit on him." "with Kei/S&B...I'm comfortable leaving them alive for now, if shit hit the fan, I'd say we could lynch SNB " "Hiro's so damned innocuous it's starting to make me wonder." http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=48#943 : "Crossfire and Ghost connection, I could entertain..." http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=55#1096 : "I'm more nervous about Hiro's invisibility than Mattchew's. Mattchew said he got a HotS invite right before he vanished, Hiro has just said almost nothing memorable all game. That sets off more of my "scum" alarms than anything else." Correct me if I'm wrong, but those are the only instances you've talked about your thoughts on other players since the beginning of N2. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
My gut is going for a austin-Mattchew scum for some reason. I've already posted about austin (not with specific examples though, but it's kind of hard to find specific instances of what I'm talking about). Matt's activity severly dropped since N1. On D2 the only remarkable thing he did was make a case on S&B and then instantly discard it after he claimed, and on D3 I don't remember him doing anything at all. He's just coasting on the "confirmed town" status the IAM lynch gave him. I'm wary of his "pro-town" behaviour on D1 because I've seen him be "pro-town" on D1 as scum (Can't Believe again), also the fact that he could be legitimately scumhunting for. Austin, Mattchew, ghost; those are the guys I'd want in the chopping block tomorrow. Like I said I'm less inclined to lynch ghost, because after reading previous games from him I get the gut feeling he's playing like it. Meh, on D4 I'll try to expand on this if possible. I've repeated this hundred times, and few people answered: Who's Red Scum? If we decide to make connections between Xfire or Iamp, or see certain behaviour and shit, we need to know which scum team we are looking for. In Liar Game you couldn't just say "lol he is Harimoto, or maybe Yokoya I dunno". I could have been found out by looking at my behaviour taking chaoser into mind, and ET could have been found out by looking at his behaviour taking sandro into account. My point is that it can also help focus discussion and our thoughts of this game. Maybe thinking of austin as scum is difficult, but thinking of him as RS is not. Maybe (like I did before) it's just a process of elimination: "Matt can't be RS", "Hiro can't be RS", "Player X can't be BS" etc can give you more insight on the situation. I say this because it seems I'm the only one that's trying (other than some few comments some people made in passing or in 1 post, like ghost did IIRC) | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
If you did my bad. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
The point is that I don't think it's enough, specially if we have bad reads and don't discuss them fully (i.e if everybody just assumes ghost is BS and he doesn't flip BS we have no fucking idea what to do next). For instance, do you think Matt could be BS? Or you think there's a very higher chance either me/ghost is BS that Matt shouldn't be taken into account (for instance). Same about RS. Do you think maybe the RS bussed IAM when he saw there was too much momentum against him? (i.e if Hiro could be RS). Or if RS Matt would just bus his sole teammate and give 0 fucks about it? If not, who of the remaining players is most likely RS and why? austin, me, ghost or Jingle? If any of them isn't RS, why is that? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Second: Fine, I'll make a list, since that seems to be what you want. Hiro & S&B: Town. Gonzaw: My top candidate for BS atm based on interactions with Crossfire. Point about the iamp unvote could be possible red scum motivated, but some other things fit better from a BS perspective (all the town reads, being obsessed with BS once crossfire flipped, etc) of wanting to stay hidden and keep yourself alive. austin: Could be either. The key thing that gives me a weird feeling from him is the way that he hasn't really been the leading factor in any of the lynches. He hasn't really committed to any reads or pushes until other people start pushing them (me day 1, nisani day 2, and even Drazerk/you on day3). Specifically on day3, he just kept pushing evidence for both cases without ever saying which one he thought was more likely to be scum until I specifically asked him. ghost: possibly either, with some (possibly too obvious) connections with Crossfire. Could be red because of trying to start a late bandwagon on me day 1, could be black because of the connections. Mattchew: Someone made the comment about town Mattchew would actively be scumhunting, while scum Mattchew would either bus his teamates or lurk (both of which he did in Can't Believe). However, I'm not sure I can believe that scum Matt would lead the bus on godfather/JOAT day 1. MAYBE RS. BS is another story, because he could play exactly like he's town and actively scumhunt, and lynching RS day 1 under his leadership certainly gave him room to stand back and stop contributing. Also fits with him making a case and pushing S&B on day 2. In order of his chances: BS > town > RS Jingle: I honestly have no fucking clue. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Although, even if you think Hiro is town you should analyze the possibility of him being RS or BS and see if makes sense or not. Anyways, good. So you still think I'm the most likely scum/BS then? I guess there's nothing I can do to change anybody's mind then? :/ I thought being heavily active in a totally "wasted" day and trying to find all scum would be enough, but oh oh well.. Now that we are talking about something I'd like something to add: About austin, the thing I noticed in all if not most of his Can't Believe posts is that almost all of them were much more assertive. He posted way less fluff there as well. He does post fluff every time as town (he does tend to post walls of text when responding, like when he initially responded to tali's case back in D1 in Can't Believe), but his posts seemed more focused there. ...hmm, there are stuff that seem townie though. For instance his unvote of Jingle because of Jingle's vote on Mattchew. He does post lots of explanations, for instance about his suspicions on Keirathi and stuff.....but I don't know if he could have fabricated them as scum or not. Some of his posts are just so fluffy and some seem like filler. Meh I'm not sure, I'll go to sleep and check again in the morning. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
austin, what's fucking with my head is the fact that you haven't played as scum yet, so I don't know if you posting gigantic walls of text every 2 seconds like you do right now is something you'd do as scum or if you are just the same townie as always but not that assertive and more confused/lost/less interested | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I don't think we're looking at 2 red 2 black with black having no KP. Used to 10/3 in minis, where there are maybe 3 blues. However, in this game we've got lots of blues and some strong roles. I don't think moving to 9/2/2 with one scum having no KP balances that out. Things that I'm considering are: (1) 2 red 3 black, no black KP (smaller scum faction has KP, larger doesn't); (2) 2 red 2 black WITH black KP; (3) 3 red 2 black, no black KP (2 KP for red at start, but dropping to 1 if they lose anyone). I'm concerned about anyone who is insisting that they know the setup. Drazerk's 4-4-4-1 setup seemed so far out there that it was easy to toss out. But everyone else has keyed in on a single setup and I don't know how they're doing that. Which brings me to something obvious/subtle that I'm noticing Gonzaw wants black and red reads. He is thinking 2 black 2 red setup. He's convinced that this is the case. Why? Two things. (1) I agree that Gonzaw swapping to Drazerk in the middle of D1 looked like he knew Drazerk wasn't part of his faction (again, can't say "knew he was town" with two factions unless one knows the other or Gonzaw has a DT check(s) on the other team, etc.). (2) Insistence on a single setup also points to that - how does Gonzaw KNOW that it's 2 and 2? It gives me the same feeling, that he has more information about the game than we do. He may be on a 2-man scum team and assume the other team is 2 as well. That's the more obvious part that strikes me from his conviction about 2 and 2. Here's the more subtle bit though. Gonzaw is asking for reads. Gonzaw is GIVING his reads, but only for a 2 man and 2 man setup. There's....there's a step missing when you just assume 2 man scum teams? Like, you're telling people "Solve the game, give me your reads, but only for THIS possibility." I know he's not ASKING for 2 man 2 man teams, but him being so consistent in giving a black scum and a red scum sort of hammers the point home. I want your reads, here are mine, 1 black 1 red, what are yours? Am I overreacting to this or do you guys feel this too? It's like...say he flips, and flips red scum, and is on a 3 man team. If town thinks 2 and 2, we'll start hunting black scum. We'll do red's job for it. If he flips and flips black scum, same thing...red scum goes hunting town and not black. Now, those are contradictory. If Gonzaw KNOWS there are 2-man scum teams, he's not trying to keep a third person hidden. And if Gonzaw's on a scum team with 3 people, he's not privy to extra knowledge that there are 2-man scum teams. Either way though, it's how he's so SURE that it's 2 black 2 red that I can't get over. Like...asking for reads and giving reads looks helpful, looks townie. But if you're only doing that for a single setup then you're not really giving your reads. You're giving reads for one possible setup, and not touching the others. I interpret that as either KNOWING one setup is the case, by being scum and knowing your team numbers, or just attempting to look townier than you are, because you're really not being as forthcoming and helpful as it looks like you are. (Both are scummy btw, Gonzaw, this is me saying I find this thing scummy about you) Was anyone else getting this feeling? Is anyone else SURE of a particular setup? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Because in D1 you were all "gonzaw is like confirmed town" and then last day you were like "yeah there are reasons to lynch gonzaw, maybe we can lynch gonzaw" and I don't remember you ever showing off suspicions of me at all until you somehow agreed to have me lynched..? These are the 1st posts where you have some suspicion on me http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=32#624 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=40#796 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=41#805 But you don't conclude anything and I thought you just found odd stuff and ignored it later. I don't see any "gonzaw is scum" at all or you showing any suspicion on me. Hell, one of the things you find "suspicious" (the fishing) you change your mind about it later and actually defend me for it: On October 06 2012 05:53 austinmcc wrote: Anyone who's scummy on Gonzaw's speculation, look at Can't Believe and also the full-on magic mini where he hydraed. There was speculation in both those games that I found scummy, especially magic, and he was townie in both. I think we need to keep discussing him, look at him for a possible lynch, but he can be a really scummy setup speculator even as town. There are all the posts where you mention me later: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=49#961 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=49#964 You keep defending me against Jingle and even think the connections between me-Xfire isn't that good. Then here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=55#1089 ...you acknowledge the "scummy" stuff Jingle said, but again no conclusion no thoughts nothing. Then come these posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=56#1106 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=56#1112 And suddenly I'm scum and you want to lynch me apparently? Wtf was that about? 10 or so of your posts before you were defending me against Jingle and telling people that I do scummy speculation as town, and then out of nowhere you agree with all points Jingle made and implicitly accuse me as scum or that I should get lynched or that Draz flippin town may confirm me as scum and stuff like that? You make a post posting your suspicions at me (#1112 I think)....and then you forget about me completely. What about this?: On October 06 2012 05:53 austinmcc wrote: Anyone who's scummy on Gonzaw's speculation, look at Can't Believe and also the full-on magic mini where he hydraed. There was speculation in both those games that I found scummy, especially magic, and he was townie in both. I think we need to keep discussing him, look at him for a possible lynch, but he can be a really scummy setup speculator even as town. Why are you defending me and then immediately after telling people I'm a possible lynch? Please tell me your thought process on your read of me because I don't understand it. At first you find me like "confirmed town" and shit, then you find "red flags" that I explain but you don't pay attention and ignore later. After Jingle posts his case and shit you point out other points against me....but they are more like pressure than suspicions since you don't show off any suspicion at all against me (you just ask me questions basically). After I explain myself you don't call me out or anything so I assume you forgot about them. Then you even defend myself against Jingle and others, telling Jingle that he's "putting a list of all things player x did and call them scummy" and defending my speculation as town... ...however you call me "possible lynch" at the same time, wtf? After that every time you talk to me it's like you are neutral or null about me, and then immediately after you start discussing me being scum and Draz being town and talking about reasons to lynch me, and then you post suspicions on me when you are talking to Keirathi....and then you completely forget about me after that post. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
^Damn my post has shitty formatting lol @to austin: I've already explained countless of times why I think there are 2 and 2. Even if that's not the case, 1-1 it's the minimum amount of scum left; so if I say you are RS and Mattchew is BS it can still be true, even if maybe ghost is BS as well or Jingle is RS as well or shit like that. I don't contemplate cases of more scum since it contradicts the reads I have and it contradicts the balance of the game IMO. It's a possibility, but it's fucked up (that scum can almost completely control lynches and shit and town has very little numbers). Again, remember that 3-3 imply that there are only 7 townies in the whole game. With that little influence it's almost impossible for town to lead a lynch on their own without the influence of both scum teams. Unless town gets lucky and both scum teams decide to kill each other in the lynches, town is basically fucked up and is misslynched every single day. Without town's lynch power, night saves are useless, town is useless, town loses every single time. For instance, if the 3-3 scum thing is correct, then tomorrow I'm getting misslynched 100% (the 2-2 remaining scum jump on me, and like the 3 remaining townies can't do anything since they have less numbers, not taking into account if those townies think I'm scum as well); after that town is completely fucked and can't do shit, only die at night and watch as the scum teams fight each other. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
If you guys think there are like 6 scum remaining, okay then post them. I'll give ghost some credit for doing exactly that (even though he basically didn't explain it). | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
As far as I know, Draz was the only town KP role we have, and it was 1-shot. How the hell can town win in a 7-3-3 or 8-3-2 with 2-3 scum KP like you suggest but no KP of their own? Again, if town can't influence lynches properly, and have no night KP, how do you expect them to win? I remember that PYP game that was similar, but there town had like 10 KP or something and completely killed both scum teams. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
He made a big wall of text post to basically say "Hiro and Jingle have been worthless this game therefore they are BS. Matt can't be BS because I've already filled BS up, so hes town. Therefore gonzaw and Jingle are red". That you keep referring to that as something substantial is boggling to my mind. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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