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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I've made arguments for a 2-2 scum team, and the arguments against it are basically "gonzaw seems like he knows the setup!". ghost tried to do that...but well you could see it didn't make much sense. At least he tried to do it and utterly failed, which is better than just saying "there are 4 scum remaining!" and not doing anything (yes even if ghost is scum). | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
On October 09 2012 02:44 gonzaw wrote: Saying there are 10 scum remaining is easy if you don't make arguments for it. I've made arguments for a 2-2 scum team, and the arguments against it are basically "gonzaw seems like he knows the setup!". ghost tried to do that...but well you could see it didn't make much sense. At least he tried to do it and utterly failed, which is better than just saying "there are 4 scum remaining!" and not doing anything (yes even if ghost is scum). Actually, there's the best argument at all, which you keep completely ignoring. The OP tells us how scum factional KP is calculated, in a way that suggested at least a 3 person red team. Not Caller game, so, Scum KP = #/2 rounded up suggests 3 red minimum. Wording of Crossfire's post suggested 2 black minimum. I've said this before, I believe twice. That means we should be looking for, most likely, 5-7 scum. It's a reasonable deduction that Red only had 3 people, since we have yet to see multiple KPs or, as far as can be spotted, unclaimed saves/vets. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Anyways, I think that we should be lynching austin tomorrow. He hasn't had a single "unique" read or push. Every single thing that he's done this game has been piggybacking off of someone else's arguments and adding fuel to them. Just look through his filter. Not a single time has he been a leading factor in a push, just comes in after-the-fact with more evidence to push it along. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 09 2012 02:51 Keirathi wrote: Also, I just want to note that trying to figure out entire scumteams is an exercise in futility. One scum at a time please. Anyways, I think that we should be lynching austin tomorrow. He hasn't had a single "unique" read or push. Every single thing that he's done this game has been piggybacking off of someone else's arguments and adding fuel to them. Just look through his filter. Not a single time has he been a leading factor in a push, just comes in after-the-fact with more evidence to push it along. EBWOP: And the only major bandwagon that he didn't try to jump on or push more evidence for was....*GASP* iamperfection. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On October 09 2012 02:51 JingleHell wrote: Actually, there's the best argument at all, which you keep completely ignoring. The OP tells us how scum factional KP is calculated, in a way that suggested at least a 3 person red team. Not Caller game, so, Scum KP = #/2 rounded up suggests 3 red minimum. Wording of Crossfire's post suggested 2 black minimum. I've said this before, I believe twice. That means we should be looking for, most likely, 5-7 scum. It's a reasonable deduction that Red only had 3 people, since we have yet to see multiple KPs or, as far as can be spotted, unclaimed saves/vets. If that's true then we basically lost unless the scum teams go against each other. You are suggesting it's either 4-2-2 or 4-2-1 right now. If both S&B and Kei are town, then maybe they can make 1 or 2 saves tonight, but S&B will die (and thus we can't make more saves), and then scum KP will start rolling in. If it's 4-2-2 town has the same number of players as scum so town lose the power of the lynch basically (again, unless the scum teams go against each other). Again, this is if there are no kills tonight. A 2-2-2 or 3-2-2 D4 is impossible for town to win basically. I could do all the calculations (like I did in the Liar Game) but I'm not in the mood If S&B and Kei are scum and lied about their power....lol we can lose tonight. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
JH made that post on mattchew. He hasn't unmade that post. Therefore, I'm still convinced he's town At the moment, I don't subscribe to keirathi and snb being different alignments. I also find it more likely that snb would claim as he did and connect himself to p-body if he were town (instead of connecting 2 scum, and if red, probably the only 2 remaining red scum). The tunneling drazerk all game doesn't make me lean townie, but ... right now just based on the way their claims happened I think they're both town. (I still think your D1 was scummy Keirathi, but you didn't feel that way during this last cycle). After those reads, things break down but here's what I've got: HiroPro town or black scum. He hasn't been spectacularly active. He's kind of hiding in the shadows. But when he's posted it seems like legit thoughts that don't...don't have an agenda behind them? If HiroPro were red scum, not only did he bus iamperfection but he hasn't really DONE anything after that. If he was bussing for town cred, I'd expect him to try and use that to exert some control over the game. However, I could see him playing this way as black scum, not wanting to be particularly visible, and getting a free pass to do so because of the iamperfection vote. Mattchew is the one person that could kind of be anything. Scum matt apprently busses. I know scum matt has been disinterested in games I've played in. Aperture matt has both those qualities. + Show Spoiler + Little extra thoughts on possible scum matt: Why would he bus godfather/roleblocker/JOAT on D1? Seems like he would bus someone else UNLESS iamperfection said he didn't have time or something. iamperfection was scum in GSL Open 2, so...perhaps didn't want to play in multiple games as scum at the same time, and so he was the bus choice? Also, at the end of the day. Asks Drazerk if he's around, says thinking about swapping from iamperfection to keirathi. Why Drazerk? Why not whole thread? If he's considering swapping his vote, doesn't he ask the full thread, get others to switch over? ghost is black scum for me. I still like all the filter stuff between him and crossfire. I still can't understand why he wouldn't claim it if he was actually black scum, which is one reason I'm not sure of the setup. Depending on whether black scum has 2 or 3 players, and the roles they have, claiming might or might not make sense. Falling off the face of the earth could indicate that he's given up, and maybe they only have two players? Or it could indicate that he's red and he thinks he's home free because getting fingered as black means town won't kill him. It's just...all speculative here, but my gut says that connection stuff is a good find and he's black. gonzaw. I'll be more explicit if you want me to later on, and give the full thought process of why my read on you has changed. But right now I get this out in case I'm not back by deadline, so here are just two big things that I've been looking at: (1) the bit about you being sure of the setup (2) Your progression of reads/votes on Drazerk yesterday. You went from: voting him to "What if he's town?" to unvoting him because he didn't quite feel right But then...Drazerk claimed. And snb came in and claimed to have taken damage. Just damage, from a shot that was claimed to go through veteran abilities. After that claim, which directly conflicts with Drazerk's claim (at least in my mind, I know we had discussion about how bodyguard and medics could interact) vote no-lynch. On October 08 2012 05:11 gonzaw wrote: snb just refuted Drazerk's claim. You were scummy on Drazerk, then uncertain. In response to snb's post, you ask snb why he's ignoring the thread to get Drazerk lynched...##Vote: No Lynch Just for now, I'm going to make some errands and be back in 1 hour or 2. On October 08 2012 05:07 gonzaw wrote: S&B, before I listen to you on who to lynch, please post your thoughts on everything else that went on in this D3 thread. Like...stuff about me, stuff about Jingle, stuff about ghost and austin, etc. There's plenty of info lying around, why are you ignoring it just to get Draz lynched? and vote no-lynch. snb just refuted Drazerk's claim. snb knows that he took damage, from a guy who claims that his shot goes through extra lives. snb isn't "ignoring thread to get Drazerk lynched." snb KNOWS that Drazerk is lying (it just turns out he was lying as town  ). Town JUST FOUND SCUM. Drazerk is lying about his claim, barring some third claim of something weird that could explain the redirected shot AND a source for the phantom KP on snb. We have neither of those. Drazerk lying, Drazerk scum is way way way more likely.But you don't seem to notice that. You want snb's thoughts on the day, want to know why he's ignoring the day in order to get Drazerk lynched. When snb has just found scum. It's like...you don't understand the implications of what just happened. Like D3 was going to be your big time to shine, to unvote Drazerk, find him townie, have a thread presence, and get Drazerk off the hook maybe. Then Drazerk gets CAUGHT and you're still trying to salvage that - what are your thoughts on the day, stop looking at the scum you found, what about all this other stuff? Unless you knew of a reason why Drazerk's shot wouldn't have connected, and chose not to explain it (which also seems un-townie), then how is that your reaction? So: JH, snb, Keirathi, moi HiroPro Mattchew Ghost Gonzaw By process of elimination, I have to think Gonzaw is red? The reaction to Drazerk/snb and pushing 2-man scum teams aren't indicative of color, but nobody else looks ... redder? more red? The only other person I see as possible red, assuming snb and keirathi are town, is Mattchew, and mattchew feels like he could be ANYTHING. It's one reason I'm considering a 2 red 3 black setup as an option. That would explain why people look so townie, we'd have one red scum left and then 2 blacks, which could have been people on the iamperfection lynch. Something like gonzaw red, ghost and either hiro or mattchew black feels like it fits the game. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
However, I don't want to make one huge post right at deadline, because those aren't usually super effective, they try peoples' patience, tldr, etc. Keirathi: - I have a hearty respect for Keirathi as a scum player. I haven't played with him yet but the one scum game of his I did read closely was simply masterful. He really looked town. The curse of this is that it makes it hard to trust a town read on him. - Everyone is treating it like he and I are confirmed to be the same alignment. It's important not to do this: there is no official confirmation of that in either of our role pm's, as far as I can tell. At least, there isn't in mine and while Keirathi says his hints that I'm town, I don't think he's said that it explicitly comes out and confirms it. - That said, I do have a strong town read on Keirathi. I'm just hesitant about it because he did a very good job of faking being town in that other game I read. But I think he's town for a few reasons. One is that from a mechanics and balance sense, it seems unreasonable for a scum faction to control a town faction's bodyguard power. Another is the things he posted. His filter feels townie to me. He's participating a lot (11 page filter), he's trying to move discussion along (his early game mattchew gambit was not well thought out imo but I can more easily attribute it to town motives than to scum motives), and he's put in at least some effort towards positively organizing town (specifically, I'm referring to the posts he made early on talking about how even though it's plurality lynch, having the votes completely spread out over a whole bunch of candidates is still anti town). - However, if he survives too long it will eventually be time to start being suspicious of him. [b]JingleHell[b]: Is retardedly abrasive for no reason, to such an extent that it makes it hard to give him credibility and makes him seem like he's doing emotional tunneling. However, he does this as town as well as as scum - it's not scummily being disruptive on purpose to derail the thread. Or at least, it's not necessarily that. However, it makes it hard to get a read on him. I have a weak town read on him, overall, but if it really came down to maybe lynching him it would take me quite a bit of effort to read through his whole filter. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On October 09 2012 03:12 austinmcc wrote: gonzaw. I'll be more explicit if you want me to later on, and give the full thought process of why my read on you has changed. But right now I get this out in case I'm not back by deadline, so here are just two big things that I've been looking at: (1) the bit about you being sure of the setup (2) Your progression of reads/votes on Drazerk yesterday. You went from: voting him to "What if he's town?" to unvoting him because he didn't quite feel right But then...Drazerk claimed. And snb came in and claimed to have taken damage. Just damage, from a shot that was claimed to go through veteran abilities. After that claim, which directly conflicts with Drazerk's claim (at least in my mind, I know we had discussion about how bodyguard and medics could interact) vote no-lynch.snb just refuted Drazerk's claim. You were scummy on Drazerk, then uncertain. In response to snb's post, you ask snb why he's ignoring the thread to get Drazerk lynched... and vote no-lynch. snb just refuted Drazerk's claim. snb knows that he took damage, from a guy who claims that his shot goes through extra lives. snb isn't "ignoring thread to get Drazerk lynched." snb KNOWS that Drazerk is lying (it just turns out he was lying as town ). Town JUST FOUND SCUM. Drazerk is lying about his claim, barring some third claim of something weird that could explain the redirected shot AND a source for the phantom KP on snb. We have neither of those. Drazerk lying, Drazerk scum is way way way more likely.But you don't seem to notice that. You want snb's thoughts on the day, want to know why he's ignoring the day in order to get Drazerk lynched. When snb has just found scum. It's like...you don't understand the implications of what just happened. Like D3 was going to be your big time to shine, to unvote Drazerk, find him townie, have a thread presence, and get Drazerk off the hook maybe. Then Drazerk gets CAUGHT and you're still trying to salvage that - what are your thoughts on the day, stop looking at the scum you found, what about all this other stuff? Unless you knew of a reason why Drazerk's shot wouldn't have connected, and chose not to explain it (which also seems un-townie), then how is that your reaction? On October 08 2012 04:42 gonzaw wrote: Something weird happened on N1, and I can vouch for that (again, regarding my role). If I told you guys what happened to me you would say "I don't see a scenario that explains what gonzaw is saying, therefore he's lying" as well. Maybe I'm inclined to believe Draz because of that. Dammit austin read the thread. I knew S&B didn't lie about the shot, he did get shot. S&b coming to the thread didn't do anything to change my mind or anything. My gut feeling that he was town, coupled with all the things he did that didn't make sense from a scum perspective are enough to make me assume something weird happened on N1 where a town Drazerk's shot didn't kill S&B for some reason. Town JUST FOUND SCUM. It didn't seem like it. Go back and read your posts about Drazerk after S&B claimed, starting with this one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=60#1195 You aren't going on about "TOWN JUST FOUND SCUM!!", so why are you expecting ME to do so? Is that really enough for you to think I'm scum? The "sure about the setup" and "Drazerk" thing is just soweak. JH made that post on mattchew. He hasn't unmade that post. Therefore, I'm still convinced he's town How about the rest of his play? 1 post doesn't exonerate him as scum or town if his play the rest of the game shows otherwise. Man austin, I don't like that post of yours. It's just lots of fluff. You basically say that Hiro could be anything, that ghost is sure BS because of the Xfire connection and you explain stuff about Matt that's been said 100 times before (would Matt bus his GF/JOAT on D1? Maybe he's black? etc). | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On October 09 2012 03:33 Mattchew wrote: is it night? Can we kill you Mattchew? | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
if you want to kill townies. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On October 08 2012 04:02 Drazerk wrote: Bullet is immune to veteran abilities, bus driver effects and role blocks. Not medics/lightning rods though. But the part where he goes from kinda defending gonzaw to wanting his lynch is way before that: On October 08 2012 01:49 austinmcc wrote: The foreknowledge point is a good pickup. The fishing is there. The momentum stuff on D1 is there. But why do I want the lynch "securely off Draz"? Like...I just watched him get very few votes in a game where he was scum. I fooking chatted with him late while he was active and scum when nobody was around. Aperture 1 he gets caught playing Drazerk-y on D1. PTP3 he gets caught playing Drazerk-y on D1, but snb dies and nobody reads, so he survives. This game, he DOESN'T play Drazerk-y on D1. Why? He says time. Maybe. But he also keeps getting caught D1, and so maybe he suppresses that for a day here and then can't contain it D2? I dunno about that. He also just claims to mess with his meta, so maybe even if he hadn't been getting caught he'd go from Drazerk-y to not? Gah. Nor does stuff like this make me want to unvote: Don't kill me, I'm one of the most active players. Instead, kill Gonzaw, who's been one of the most active players. He's right on mattchew; we're ignoring him. But he's complaining about activity and then calling out a guy who's been very active recently, albeit Gonzaw's activity is sometimes just gratuitous posts that don't help. On October 08 2012 02:26 austinmcc wrote: Those are reasons to want the lynch ON Gonzaw. They're not reasons to want the lynch OFF Drazerk, except that Gonzaw flipping scum could indicate Drazerk is town. Hold on. I just wrote up little hypotheticals about what happens if Drazerk/Gonzaw flip and are town/scum, how it makes the other look. But the "Gonzaw scum = Drazerk town" thing doesn't work. Multiple factions. Gonzaw scum = Drazerk not scum WITH Gonzaw. scumGonzaw can't know that Drazerk is town, just that he's not on Gonzaw's faction. Right? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I wanted to claim right before deadline in case I die, but I guess I can't. Hopefully either you guys are smart enough to see what happened after I flip, or scum don't shoot me. If I flip, I take it you guys can figure out what happened on N1 without any help. Also, I said I didn't breadcrumb and now I kind of feel bad for not doing so (in case I die). There is a post of mine that's sort of a breadcrumb. If you read it it doesn't seem like it taking into account the context, but the context just happened to be the correct one for my crumb to work. If you guys find that "crumb", I give you one word: ghost (bolded doesn't mean anything, i.e not BS or stuff, it's just emphasis). Man, I hope I don't die or this works. See ya. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Of you are town, literally the best thing you could do right now is make yourself a juicy enough target that you get nk'd. Basically everyone is suspicious of you, and if you are town, then your mislynch probably loses the game for town. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Thought I had this afternoon - we don't know if our position swapper or bus driver in this game is town or not, but I'm hoping that's a town role. IF you've been RBed recently and haven't claimed, you probably should. We've had no RB claims, so mementoss's rat nest seems to have disappeared with him or gone on a spot where someone got lynched and didn't claim RB? But IF we have anyone who knows where the rat's nest is, you ought to claim the location, so that the bus driver can swap people into that slot and play jailkeeper. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On October 08 2012 07:56 gonzaw wrote: Oh fuck if you flip scum I'll feel so retarded this makes me think gonzaw is scum. | ||
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