Alright. After a thorough examination of thrawn's filter (and yes it took fucking forever) I am making my case.
Early Game Thrawn:
+ Show Spoiler + thrawn2112 United States. September 18 2012 11:44. Posts 1285 PM Profile Blog Quote #
filter
On September 18 2012 11:18 kushm4sta wrote:
Show nested quote +
Terrible idea? Since we prob have liek 3 different time zones.
Biggest lurker gets lynched is a better plan but still not that great.
A lot of noobs are pretty lost about what to do day 1.
Here are my suggestions for discussion topics:
1 discuss lurker policy. I know you are bored with it or whatever, thrawn, but for peopel to say how they feel about lurkers and if they want to lynch them or let them lurk (both are viable strategies imo) gives us a baseline for FOSing people that go back on their lurker policy.
Like what if a scum says lynch all lurkers, then one of the scumbuddies turns out to be the biggest lurker. That puts him in a bad position that he could avoid without lurker policy discussion.
Eh, lurker policy is a pretty obvious thing to talk about and shouldn't last longer than maybe a single statement (if that) from each player. However like you implied having something to talk about is better than having nothing but in my past games town went on and on about lurkers for like 12 hours which is obviously bad.
On September 18 2012 11:18 kushm4sta wrote:2 I think we should discuss a plan for how to spend time.
Here is my proposed plan: Freely making cases against anyone you think is scum in the first 24 hours of the day, then focusing on a couple of the biggest bandwagons in the second 24 hours.
Do you like this plan or do you have a better one? I would a more systematic scumhunt this game though.
Lets not get too carried away with deciding on exactly how we'll proceed... that makes it very easy for mafia to hide. Remember the list stuff in our last game? Wasn't it sonic who proposed that idea and he ended up being scum and was able to hide his reads behind it because other people were also making lists?
This post made me scratch my head a little bit after going back through Thrawn's filter. Thrawn says let’s not get carried away with a town plan since it will hide the mafia. However, kush’s plan wasn’t really any kind of focused, elaborate plan. It was plain and simple and offered us some order. I don’t think we would have gotten “carried away” with such a simple plan. Not anything huge, but it's there.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 02:46 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2012 02:37 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I don't really agree with your approach. I wanted to pressure you on the off chance it was serious. Pressuring you gave me the explanation that it was "scum bait", which still doesn't make sense to me. Pressuring someone can give you more information that might be more useful than the original one. And I still want you to explained your rationale behind your post being "scum bait". Ok. Every newbie game I've played in has started with tons and tons of talk about lurker policy, the term I used earlier for it was a "lurker policy circle-jerk." I didn't want this game to go down that path, so I needed to say something that would give people something to argue about instead of everyone just agreeing with each other about lurkers for the first half of D1. So I said something completely ridiculous that I thought should have been obvious to everyone that it wasn't a real suggestion...... obvious to everyone except scum, who are over eager to jump on anything in order to push a mislynch. Hence, "scum-bait." So yes, it was a serious question that I was hoping to get responses to, but it wasn't my personal choice for D1 lynch. A few posts after that I outlined my real D1 lynch ideas.
Early on, I saw the rationale behind this. However, we have to think of the situation. We ended up at the end of D1 with confusion. There was a big rush on who to vote for. We would have most likely avoided the confusion had we talked about lurkers early and gotten it out of the way. Thrawn was pretty adamant on the “lurker policy circle-jerk”. We never really focused on lurkers until after the Sharrant claim. It's a little far fetched but it's there and it combines with evidence to come.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 03:42 thrawn2112 wrote:sonic: The point is not to see who disagrees with a obviously ridiculous statement, the point is to see who is eager to build a case against me because of it. Other people casually mentioned that it was a flat out awful idea but you presented the false dichotomy that either I posted it as town which you see as most unlikey, or that I posted it as scum. About debears: I'll read his filter and point out what I think about it, but for now the thing that struck me as odd was the line: Show nested quote +On September 18 2012 22:42 debears wrote:I think thrawn is town. Anyone with evidence pointing otherwise, please present. I don't see why he is making it such a huge goal for town to establish if I am 100% town or not. Seems a little too off topic from the whole scumhunting thing.
Here is where the inconsistencies begin. Thrawn exaggerates my post, claiming it was a “huge goal” of mine to establish him as town. It was a single post giving a town read. Nothing saying "Thrawn is 100% town". Also, he says that it was off topic from scumhunting.
Yet...
Show nested quote +On September 19 2012 05:09 thrawn2112 wrote:On September 19 2012 04:54 rethos wrote:Debears post seems suspicious for reasons already mentioned. The real interesting part (for me) comes after this post: On September 19 2012 04:20 thrawn2112 wrote:
OK so kush do you think I'm scum? Do you have reasons for that or is it just a shitty halfway into D1 association case?
I went through debear's filter and here's what I've got:
People are jumping on him for defending me, under the reasoning that either A) he's mafia trying to make safe posts or B) he and I are both mafia and he's trying to defend me. B is the vibe I'm getting from kush and sonic. But what about option C) that he's town and talking about something that everyone else is talking about? Obviously I say B is dumb excpet from the perspective of sonic who had been accusing me most of the game, but I don't see any indicator that option A or option C is more likely. To me it looks like the people who are accusing him are doing so because they already thought I looked scummy, or because they are scum themselves pushing a mislynch.
The thing in debear's filter I disagreed with was his agreement that kush is sk. I can see how it would be possible but I don't see any reason to think it's likely, especially since we don't even yet know if there's a sk or not. Debears what are your thoughts on kush beyond what you already said?
In summary: His defense of me doesn't look more town-motivated or mafia-motivated, so I'm going with a null read on the whole "defending thrawn" situation.
Pre Edit: just saw that he posted some stuff about rethos, so my current read on him is that he's done nothing that I see as scummy and he has participated in discussion and brought some original ideas into the mix. So overall I'm saying he's looking town. His defense of me was a little to lengthy and aggressive to be normal but I don't know why he'd do that as town or mafia.
Until now thrawn2112 strikes me as a player that is willing to go after suspicious stuff (because of the whole SDM discussion). It seems to me though that debears's post does not seem suspicious to him. He seems actually biased imo which makes me think that there is some sort of alliance there. Also interesting is to point out stuff like On September 19 2012 04:20 thrawn2112 wrote:
The thing in debear's filter I disagreed with was his agreement that kush is sk. I can see how it would be possible but I don't see any reason to think it's likely, especially since we don't even yet know if there's a sk or not. Debears what are your thoughts on kush beyond what you already said?
On September 19 2012 04:20 thrawn2112 wrote:
About debears: I'll read his filter and point out what I think about it, but for now the thing that struck me as odd was the line:
On September 18 2012 22:42 debears wrote:I think thrawn is town. Anyone with evidence pointing otherwise, please present.
I don't see why he is making it such a huge goal for town to establish if I am 100% town or not. Seems a little too off topic from the whole scumhunting thing.
He is pointing out minor stuff that he does not agree with to make it look like he is not biased. Little nitpicky stuff. He is also not expanding on the second point in his post. That seems to be his primary concern when he started looking into it. Why doesn't he explain what has come of that concern, did it get solved? How? If not why didn't he mention it in his second post as well to give a clear and full reading. Right now it seems that he is doing his best to defend him while still being able to back out if something goes wrong. @thrawn2112 what conclusion have you achieved regarding the last quote?##FOS Debears ##FOS thrawn2112 It's odd but not odd enough to influence my read on him in either direction. Basically it this point it tells me nothing other than that it tells me nothing. Still going with town. You say I'm a player who is willing to go after suspicious stuff... well yeah, that's the point of the game. But then when I give a town read, all the sudden that automatically makes myself and that player a team? That's your prerogative but it's an extremely weak case. Is there anything other than that about me which you find suspicious? Because if not then that's a very weak FOS.
Now, I read town to you in such a short amount of time? Ok. Let's look at thrawn's reasoning..
+ Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 04:20 thrawn2112 wrote:
OK so kush do you think I'm scum? Do you have reasons for that or is it just a shitty halfway into D1 association case?
I went through debear's filter and here's what I've got:
People are jumping on him for defending me, under the reasoning that either A) he's mafia trying to make safe posts or B) he and I are both mafia and he's trying to defend me. B is the vibe I'm getting from kush and sonic. But what about option C) that he's town and talking about something that everyone else is talking about? Obviously I say B is dumb excpet from the perspective of sonic who had been accusing me most of the game, but I don't see any indicator that option A or option C is more likely. To me it looks like the people who are accusing him are doing so because they already thought I looked scummy, or because they are scum themselves pushing a mislynch.
The thing in debear's filter I disagreed with was his agreement that kush is sk. I can see how it would be possible but I don't see any reason to think it's likely, especially since we don't even yet know if there's a sk or not. Debears what are your thoughts on kush beyond what you already said?
In summary: His defense of me doesn't look more town-motivated or mafia-motivated, so I'm going with a null read on the whole "defending thrawn" situation.
Pre Edit: just saw that he posted some stuff about rethos, so my current read on him is that he's done nothing that I see as scummy and he has participated in discussion and brought some original ideas into the mix. So overall I'm saying he's looking town. His defense of me was a little to lengthy and aggressive to be normal but I don't know why he'd do that as town or mafia.
Based off one other post about rethos, thrawn suddenly has a town feel on me? That's odd.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 05:47 thrawn2112 wrote:
I already answered you but I'll go more in depth.
He says that he thinks I am town and asks if anyone has evidence otherwise. So my interpretation of it is that he's aggressively trying to convince people that I'm town. So what would the motivations be behind that? There's the one that he's town trying to convince people he's right, and there's the possibility that he's scum and is "dickriding" like kush said. But I don't see either being more likely than the other. That's why it doesn't factor into my overall read on him. So in summary, it's weird, but gives me nothing to make a read off of.
Thrawn says my defense post "doesn't factor" into his read on me. The main post I had made at the time, and you have no read? Most people see it pretty scumlike, yet thrawn still calls me town overall. If Thrawn was town, he wouldn't have so recklessly accepted a town read that he thought was trying to prove that he was "100% town". If thrawn was mafia, he wouldn't want to agree with the defense since it would put him at risk for lynch. But, he wouldn't want to dismiss it either.
Also, I find it hard to believe thrawn didn't have a read on it. He pretty easily FOS'd KillingTime early on for a post about the weight of FOS. Why didn't he FOS me if he was town?
+ Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 01:16 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2012 00:35 KillingTime wrote:
I don't understand the point of FoS'ing on day 1 ##Fos KillingTimeNice contribution to the thread. Do you really think that's something worth talking about when there are already lots of other discussions going on?
+ Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 06:39 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2012 06:26 rethos wrote:On September 19 2012 05:47 thrawn2112 wrote:
There's the one that he's town trying to convince people he's right Here is were I do not understand your "meh" attitude. Why, if he is town, is he trying to convince people he is right? What does that do? How does that help? Is it just bad town play? Also why is he so convinced that you are town? Everything in his post tries to scream "omg this thrawn2112 guy is sooooo townie"? Why is he not suspicious of you? Confirming a townie is actually not that useful for anyone. How does that help us get scum? If he was trying to convince people that he's right about a scum, that makes sense. Town should push scum. Trying to convince people that he's right about his town read, when that said townie is not in any real danger seems extremely odd. Here's why him defending me doesn't have to be only a scummy move. At that time a huge amount of discussion was between sonic and I and we were going at each other pretty hard. You say I wasn't in any real danger which is true but the argument between sonic and I was the most talked about thing at the time. So debears goes into the thread and gives his read on the most popular topic at the moment, and his read happens to be that I'm town. It seems like a lot of people in here are of the mindset that if player a assigns player b a town read, then by golly player a must be scum. It is not bad at all to talk about town reads, it's only bad if that's the only thing you're doing which isn't what debears has done. And confirming a townie is extremely useful... it gives you one less target to be suspicious of at least for the time being. You keep going back to that quote from debears I brought up. It does strike me as overzealous but nothing beyond that, especially since he hasn't slacked on scumhunting. In regards to why would he make such a strong statement if he is town, well I do not know. Hence my null read on that particular statement.
So, first my defense post was weird and lacked value for scumhunting, but now its "extremely useful"? Oh and btw guys, I hadn't slacked on scumhunting.
Killing/Drazak:
Alright. Moving on to the cases with killing and drazak with thrawn.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2012 04:51 thrawn2112 wrote:
{b]stutters: so your point about cubu is that no matter what he flips he is so anti-town he needs to be lynched? I can see that logic... especially since he hasn't even voted. (same for drazak- no vote yet). However I stand by my lurker policy of lynching the lurker with the largest amount of scummy content which is killing.
I still say that sharrant is scummy enough to override lurker policy
Here is his second post about killing. Note that he says that killing has the “largest amount of scummy content” out of the lurkers. And here he says he'd rather look the lurker with most scummy content rather than an anti-town cubu. On September 20 2012 04:12 thrawn2112 wrote:
If a lurker lynch is the only possible outcome then I prefer killing over cubu. For those of you that played in XXVI it's for the same reasons I wanted to lynch stutters instead of cubu. Yes I know they both ending up flipping green but I'd rather vote for the scummy looking lurker instead of the null read lurker. Killing's post count is a little higher than cubu's of course... but the fact that his post count is a little higher AND that he comes across as scummy makes him a better lurker lynch. If you wanna see cases against killing just go through my filter and ctrl+f "killing"
Cubu why did you sign up for this game when you can only make like 3 posts every 48 hours? Or.... are you mafia?
@Remedy:
The thing about kush's motives is that in the 2 games I played with him, his town meta in both games was to look scummy. Not intentionally of course but IMO he posts a lot of stuff without thinking about it. So while I do think there's been some scummy things he's said this game, because of his meta I'm going to overlook them until a little later (D2) into the game when I can actually look at the direct consequences of his actions.
I still think sharrant has said blatantly scummy things, and I've thought through possible "plans" he could've had and I don't see any that make sense so I think he's lying about that. Here, thrawn had said that he didn't want to lynch a guy with no read (aka Cubu). Contradicting himself? Yes. On September 20 2012 06:57 thrawn2112 wrote:
So, I don't know if I should trust this mason claim or not, but what does everyone think about this plan:
So maybe we should lynch cubu, and if cubu flips mason well then at least we have a confirmed town player (sharrant) and we haven't lost a useful poster. If Cubu doesn't flip mason then we atuo lynch sharrant D2.
In the outcome that cubu is mason, then like others have said about him earlier we aren't losing a player who is willing to scumhunt or contribute or say anything at all. And yeah mafia will have a good target for their nightkills (sharrant) but if there's a medic or a jailkeeper, and I think it's likely that there will be at least one of those, then they can save sharrant from nk's at their own discretion.
All that being said I still don't know if I believe the mason claim or not..... like how the hell am I supposed to get any kind of mason-with-sharrant read on cubu's filter? My instincts tell me that he's lying because of my past suspicions of him and the wtf-ness of the last few pages. So now thrawn is willing to lynch cubu based on the mason claim. He, for some reason, thinks mafia would be stupid enough to claim masons and possibly oust 2 of their members.
+ Show Spoiler + drazak United States. September 20 2012 05:39. Posts 140
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Super busy today, read most the posts, willing to ##VOTE Sherrant I'll try to post more tonighnt That's the vote that starts the swing. Here's thrawn's immediate reaction + Show Spoiler +On September 20 2012 05:43 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2012 05:39 drazak wrote:
Super busy today, read most the posts, willing to ##VOTE Sherrant I'll try to post more tonighnt You had time to read most of the posts but not enough time to write even a single word about your vote choice? After Sharrant jumps on drazak, here is drazak's response. drazak United States. September 20 2012 05:54. Posts 140
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It's scummy to reply on my phone and have a busy day? it takes me forever to write a post. sorry I have a life, some days are like that. Drazak gets defensive, and he repeats that he is busy. He has not said anything blatantly scummy. His “scummy” action was placing a vote on someone who had a lot of evidence piled up against him. Yet, thrawn jumped on him quite quickly although he would rather vote for the “scummy looking lurker”, and thrawn keeps on him. On September 20 2012 07:30 thrawn2112 wrote:
I would go with drazak. Previously my lurker lynch back up was killing but drazak made that retarted vote. I've also had earlier supicions of him maily because of his first post, where he goes out of his way to defend accusations against him that haven't even happend yet.
So killing/drazak but I say drazak.
vote count?
This was weird. Didn't killing make an equally retarded vote on me when he posted no reasoning? + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2012 01:56 KillingTime wrote:
Thrawn - I don't think it is a major point, it is a short post - if someone thinks that FOS's are valuable day one, then please tell me why. I thought the discussions about Sonic's "survey" and Thrawns " lynch question" were dumb, which were the main things in the thread at that time.
I think the other things that are on this page are more worth discussing though:
I agree that Kush's statements about not wanting to die were dumb and anti-town. I haven't voted him yet though because a) I think the serial killer case, while I can follow the logic, is a huge overreach when we don't even know whether we have a serial killer. It would be equally plausible to argue that kush was trying to attract attention to himself with that kind of remark. b) Kush made a significant number of dumb comments at the start of XXVI and turned out to be town. That doesn't excuse these comments, but they are not enough on their own to make me think he is scum.
I like sonic's last post on Debears though - For now my feeling is that Debears is mafia trying to blend into the thread. Debears who do you think is scum?
For now:
##Vote:debears Another argument came out when drazak admitted to bandwagoning. The funny thing is that Killing bandwagoned also on me earlier. On September 20 2012 01:26 mkfuba07 wrote:
Fuba's Fantastic Vote Count!!
kushm4sta (1) - Sharrant, RemedySC
debears (3) - KillingTime, Sharrant, kushm4sta, rethos
Sharrant (4) - Sonic Death Monkey, thrawn2112, debears, JacobStrangelove, JacobStrangelove
Stutters695 (1) - JacobStrangelove, Sharrant
Currently Sharrant is set to be lynched with 4 votes! 7 hours, 40 minutes remain in Day 1!
drazak, Stutters695, Atreides, and Cubu have yet to vote! A little inconsistency there. On September 20 2012 07:59 thrawn2112 wrote:
One thing that seems very very strange is how nobody has voted for killing this entire game, yet lots of people have said he's very scummy and he was even a proposed lynch candidate a few times. . There could possibly be some derailment going on everytime a killing lynch is mentioned.
If you've got insight into the drazak/killing/cubu/sharrant choice now is the time to speak up.
Did thrawn know something we didn't here? Or did he just ignore what he thought was mafia intervention and the person who had been his biggest scumread earlier? Drazak did things similar to killing. However, thrawn's main problem with drazak was his very first post and his vote. That's it. He ignored Killing's bandwagon vote and Killing's later vote for the easy target of cubu.
Remember, its not always the person who is the first to vote who starts the bandwagon. In this case, thrawn was the first to point a target on drazak's head for one post. Then, the used the one post and drazak's vote as his reasoning when Killing's case had similar, if not more scumreads.
Alright I'm tired as shit but still goin!
The Day 2 Boy who cried wolf: (mind that with the titles i am tired and this research is gettin so old so I'm having some fun)
Thrawn's first target on d2 is Atreides
+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2012 22:31 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2012 09:16 Atreides- wrote:I wasn't around after my last post, and I mixed up the voting deadline by an hour (thought it would be an hour from now, my bad). Show nested quote +On September 20 2012 15:10 Atreides- wrote:
I didn't actually know about the no-lynch until the mod posted about it. Atreides, I'm not satisfied about the context of your 1-minute-after-deadline post. In that post you said a no-lynch would have been the best choice, and later when asked about the no-lynch thing you said you didn't know about it until a mod confirmed it as real in the thread. Which means that before you made that after-deadline post, you had been following the thread closely enough to see when marv confirmed no-lynch. Marv's post happened at this time. However 14 minutes after marv's post Keirathi posted a vote count and specified the exact lynch time in big bold blue text. People had also been talking about lynch time because there was some confusion about it. So to me it looks like you really weren't reading the thread. You have also said that "weren't around after my last post" which reads as you saying you weren't reading the thread. Clarify the context of all that please. This was his first post against Atreides. He made a couple of others. He had good reasoning in his claims. However, he seems to drop the Atreides discussion quickly after the other posts.
Next, in Thrawns sights...well me!
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2012 02:15 thrawn2112 wrote:
sweet jumping jesus on a pogo stick
Debears: First off I like your posts about atreides. But on to a momre striking observation, I think the only single thing that you have said different from me were 1) the rethos stuff and 2) when you voted for killing where I voted for drazak. (but even that's something I said I would have done) Now that the pattern has continued for so long I'm really starting to see how strange your posting looks. You seem to like coming into the thread after I've given a read and giving the same exact read. I'd been dismissing it so far because I can't really blame someone for having the same read I do especially just during D1, but now that you come in all over atreides after I have just done the same thing really points to you not wanting to come up with original ideas so FOS debears. Whatever you want to call this, thrawn really make a huge "error" here in accusing me with the long awaited FOS. I had posted before him about Atreides, yet he somehow missed my posts and jumped on the chance to attack me now of all times.
Now, his next target: Remedy
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2012 04:15 thrawn2112 wrote:Remedy why was your vote so uselessly parked on kush? You were another one of the poeple who jumped in after the mislynch expressing how horrible it was, yet you weren't around during the final clusterfuck. At the beginning of the game you said you have the lynch day off work and you'll be around a lot during that, what happened to that? Going through your filter right now and this looks spretty scummy: Show nested quote +On September 19 2012 11:51 RemedySC wrote:Kush, this post stood out to me also. On September 19 2012 07:21 debears wrote: Why are you trying so hard to associate drazak, thrawn, and me. Understandly, my earlier posts would link me and thrawn. However, drazak does not come anywhere into play. Look at my filter there is one post about drazak. Debears posts do seem to link him and Thrawn, and if drazak is a part of this trio, than this post could just be another defense for his said teammate. No offense to kush but kush's scumteam theory was completely awful. What I see is you coming in and sheeping onto an insubstantial case in order to get a mislynch on me, drazak and (maybe) debears. That scumteam idea is such a weak argument I find it hard to believe a town player would honestly use it. Which leads me to wonder why kush brough it up in the first place, but I'm still unsure of kush because I have a hard time serparating crazy scum things he could have said with crazy town things he always said in previous games. On September 21 2012 06:15 thrawn2112 wrote:
People that aren't around during a very confusing and hotly debated mislynch and come in immediately after the mislynch talking about how dissappointed they are look scummy. That's the main reason I looked at his filter to begin with. On September 21 2012 17:16 thrawn2112 wrote:
Lol jacob I'm here if you're feeling lonely.
Like debears said we've got the same set of people going back and forth and kinda just making the same arguments over and over because lots of people aren't giving fresh input... so there's not tooo much to talk about atm until we get more reads from everyone else. I'm pretty confident in my remedy read but I don't wanna let that give people an excuse to keep lurking. Unfortunately there's not a good way to get lurkers to post because by their nature they for whatever reason don't like posting or are unable to post. So all you lurkers: just remember that you guys are who we're gonna look at if our reads fall flat so you need to change that by getting in here and saying what you're thinking.
Alright! so thrawn had a solid read. Good reasons. He'll sit still. Keep in mind the reasons that I highlighted when it comes to his next target., Rethos.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2012 18:36 thrawn2112 wrote:In your final post you say that you lied about having a lurking plan and that you quit because you were bored. I already made a post about your D1 posts and how I don't see boredom in those, so now here's what I think about this one. I'm going to bold all the things that look like you aren't bored and have an interest in continuing the game. Show nested quote +On September 21 2012 17:24 rethos wrote:
Believe it or not I was actually making a test to see how much leniancy lurkers get in this game. It seems to me that it's a lot. I mean how much did people take to realize that I was not posting ANYTHING?
My opinions are as follows:
1) The hit on SDM is surprising. If I were mafia I would definetly try and get that confirmed townies out instead. That really irks me a lot. It means that SDM was more of a threat that having a confirmed town. I do not think that they actually got a read on him a blue. He was way to active and open, him flipping blue must have been a surprise for them as well as for us.
2) Lynching an active player seems bad if we don't have a good reason. Right now the feeling I get is that mafia is laughing from the sidelines as some townies fight each other. Again back to the lurker idea. That means putting pressure on people to post.
3) Obviously the mason claim seems very fool proof. It all fits back way to good. The only way it's not true is if Sharrant was planning it all along when there was no pressure and tricked us all into accusing him. (very unlikely - if so... well played sir well played). Obviously also it's a bad risk/reward thing since now if something happens, we have two confirmed mafia.
My biggest problem right now is number 2. I am guilty of it as well but I was actually doing it on purpose. What are the other guys's reasons? Everybody that is not posting, can you tell us why are you not? (I have given my reason, if you need me to go into more detail about it please ask). First why make such a long post if you were bored? The first 2 bolded statements show emotion which suggests interest in the game. The third one (as well as the whole post) shows that you have an interest in pressuring lurkers which suggests an interest in future game developments. Am I reading too much into this? There might be some confirmation bias going on but after looking at his entire filter I do not get the impression that he was bored from any of his posts. Here, thrawn starts to bash rethos, until eventually rethos is replaced. Thrawn continues to point out about rethos' lies about the boredom claim and such...honestly just go through his filter i'm tired of posting his posts by now. So now thrawn is settled on someone.
I want to point out one of the similar arguments between thrawns accusations of remedy and rethos. There were a few more if I'm not mistaken:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 22 2012 06:06 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2012 05:45 Dandel Ion wrote:
Both of you are just repeating the same thing over and over now.
This isn't constructive. Talk about something else pls.
Like my Remedy case.
I like my Remedy case.
Who else likes my Remedy case?
Who doesn't like my Remedy case?
Pls include reasons.
Also, Sharky lurking even harder than Cubu (#1 replacement (I'm only #2 cuz I wasn't insta"confirmed" town, so I'm automatically worse)), Stutters not posting and Kush & Thrawn repeating the same arguments over and over.
This all and more in this episode of "Bitches in the Brothel" I've said pretty much all I have to say about remedy during N1. I started looking into his filter because of this post. Go and look at the craziness that went down in the last few hours of D1. Rethos wasn't around for the most crucial part but then he comes in 6 minutes after the lynch saying the the mislynch didn't go well. He later said he did that because he was lurking in the thread 30-40 minutes before the deadline but he didn't feel like he had anything useful to say. Then he made some (imo and apparently yours too) weak and poorly thought out accusations against me and this was right after kush had made a massive FOS on me. (btw kush that statement is not a suspicion of you it's a suspicion of remedy) Before the rethos thing happened he was my top scumread. Another weird thing happened with him since all that was is he came into the thread and made this post: Show nested quote +On September 22 2012 03:15 RemedySC wrote:
Also this was rethos's first game ever.
Before playing mafia, he would be excited to try it out. Maybe he couldn't get into though. That's all he has to say about a topic that has caused votes for a player this early on in D1?
And now for the blend of the r's:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 22 2012 11:05 thrawn2112 wrote:
My vote is staying on rethos because I just don't see how I can trust someone who lies several times and then admits to the lies and then says something just about equally unbelievable for his final excuse.
I could switch to remedy. I've been thinking over the fact that my #1 scumread (rethos) is most suspicious of my #2 (remedy) scumread but I don't really know what to make of it, at least until 1 of them flips.
And kush I don't think stutters would be a bad choice (lurker policy in effect here) but don't see myself voting for him unless the vote count ends up being super spread out among lots of candidates or something similarly controversial. My stutters vote would be because of the post timing I pointed out and because of lurker policy. However you yourself said your case against him was weak, I'm assuming at some point you're going to try and make a vote based on a stronger case? Lurker policy has its place but I don't see why it should be put into effect with so much time left before deadline.
Btw thrawn, one of them has flipped, what's your current thought? Your accusations that I saw were focused on Atreides. and there's a little stutters mixed in On September 22 2012 13:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
I've been looking at the final vote count. I think it's very very safe to assume that at least 1 mafia voted for drazak. The people who voted for drazak are: Sharrant, Sonic Death Monkey, kushm4sta, thrawn2112, Stutters695. So then I removed sharrant, sonic, and myself, which leaves kush and stutters. Out of those two I think it's more likely stutters is scum. And when I look at their votes, kush made that retarded "ok looks like drazzak is the bandwagon then" vote. Originally it looked suspicious but consider this... why the fuck would a mafia player bandwagon onto a townie lynch and then use such a terrible phrase? Especially to even include the word bandwagon? That imo, is a colossal error that I don't think anyone would be capable of. (well maybe yourharry would find some way to rationalize it) So, that leaves stutters who already looks suspicious, both for lurking, and because of how he stops lurking to pop in the thread once someone calls him out.
So if all the follwoing is true, Stutters has to be scum
1: At least 1 mafia voted for drazak
2: There are no holes we've overlooked in sharrant's mason claim
3: My reasoning about kush's vote is extremely likely to be correct
(4: and an additional one for people other than myself would be that thrawn is town)
For me of course 4 is 100 true. 2 is so close to 100 percent true it may as well be 100 percent. Then I think 3 is the next most likely and 1 is probably the part of the theory I have the most hesitations about. However I think 1 and 3 are solid enough.
So in other words I think stutters is a pretty damn good lynch option. Not only for all the reasons just mentioned but also because he's a huge lurker. On September 22 2012 12:37 thrawn2112 wrote:
Atreides the timezone explanation is not the one I was looking for that would set aside my doubts about your coming into the thread right as the deadline happened but it's believable. Also, the fact that marv posted about the no-lynch idea right after you posted your last post before deadline makes me accept that your no-lynch comment probably wasn't some sort of lie that you made up on the spot and had no prior knowledge of. The one thing that I'm stuck on is why you would think a no lynch would be better than lynching killing who you had previously said was an acceptable lynch. But anyways those were the main points of my N1 case against you. Apart from those points you've said some questionable things but quality =/= indication of alignment especially in a newbie game so you're down to a null-read. Wanna see you post more as that improves the quality of the read I can make on you.
I don't think atreides should be a lynch candidate. The stuff I just posted is enough for me to not have a scumread on him anymore. He has been lurking but if we have to go for a lurker stutters is a much better choice.
and now thrawn retracts his argument on Atreides On September 23 2012 03:09 thrawn2112 wrote:
For the people who think dandel's posting is scummy, consider this:
A lot of the stuff he has said looks scummy, but it only looks scummy if you already think rethos is scum. He's being accused of trying to deflect attention onto remedy, but lets look at the motivations behind that. Yes, he could do it if he is scum, but would he be so obvious about it? Also if he was trying to deflect onto remedy then wouldn't the other mafia try to pitch in and help deflect? Now if he is town, then of course he will be super aggressive about trying to get other people to comment on his reads. That's pretty much a townie's primary objective if they think that they are gonna be mislynched. If they know they will die then the most helpful thing they could possibly to is to try and get people discussion their reads so that when they flip green then town will have a lot to look at.
Like I said I've thought dandel's posting was scummy but that scum read is only based off of me thinking that rethos was scum. And one thing I haven't considered about rethos is that if he was lying about being bored he could still be town. Also it is somewhat accepted that you are supposed to give replacements a decent amount of time to play before you lynch them. So for all of those reasons I don't like the idea of lynching dandel today. I think more time is needed to get a read on him.
Therefore, ##Unvote
So now I want to lynch either remedy or stutters. I think both are very good options. I've talked a lot about remedy but basically nobody outside of the people who share reads on everything have shared their reads on him. First, thrawn did not see my arguments with Dandel. Dandel lied in his arguments. Oh, and he neglected to post a counterclaim when I kept on him. Then he disappeared around lynch. Then, Dandel went on about how it looked like there were 6 mafia in the game. Same reasoning you used for remedy. What do you have to say about Dandel now thrawn?Second, thrawn unvoted and neglected the stuff that rethos did, saying it doesn't make the replacement scum. However, he then voted remedy for the same stuff that rethos did, and actually less if you factor in rethos' lieing. That, combined with Dandel's posts, should have led thrawn decisively to lynch Dandel. But it didn't.
As a summary, Thrawn goes from Atreides to me, remedy, rethos, stutters, and back to remedy in d2 (the boy who cried mafia in this case). He threw out accusations and let go of them. He caused confusion in the town. Also, he had been a major player, if not the main player, in both mislynches while contradicting himself and his reads.
D3, no siree
+ Show Spoiler +On September 24 2012 06:23 thrawn2112 wrote:Here's a lurker nobody talks about much: I'm reading atreides filter and I want to reopen the case against him During day 1 he makes posts saying how he would be ok with lynching killing, but he never goes in depth into his killing read. He just says how killing is a possible lynch candidate. Then he makes a post after the vote deadline, but before the night post. So at this point if he's town he should not know the alignment of drazak. He says he would have preferred a no-lynch over drazak... does he already know that drazak will flip green? And why a no-lynch over killing, who he had mentioned several times as a lynch candidate? He just doesn't want to lynch lurkers? Atreides why do you think lurker lynching is bad? It allows lurkers to stay in the thread and gives mafia a free nightkill and no risk of any of them being lynched for lurking. He also said that "it's obvious now that the mafia had a strong hand" in the drazak vote. That is a very bold claim to make. Not only is it extremely confident in its own accuracy, but it also suggests that there are potentially a good amount of mafia voting for drazak. Well kush would be the only possibility from my perspective (and kush I would be the only possibility from your perspective if you're town) so I do not see how he could be so sure of that claim if he is town. He does make a case against me. His first accusation is that I hopped on the sharrant bandwagon. I've tunneled sharrant the hardest out of anyone and atreides even admits that I was suspicious of sharrant before I "hopped on" sonic's bandwagon. Another part of his case is that my posting has been "ineffectual" compared to my posting from previous games. I've had huge filters in all my previous games but I can't really remember a previous game where I was extremely accurate with my reads... I don't know where this claim comes from. Atreided how were my votes/reads in previous games so much better than in this game that you think I'm scum? In D2 his comments on the main lynch candidates (stutters remedy dandel) are: Show nested quote +On September 23 2012 07:40 Atreides- wrote:
ugghhh
Stutters is a bad vote, right now I don't feel comfortable lynching him without him posting more. I think that his lurking is him genuinely being busy rather than intentional (due to his lurking last game. he once went 2-3 days without a post).
After my last post I would have felt strong about voting thrawn, I think I made a good case against him but it was pretty much swept under the rug. Seems like I'm alone here, and there's no chance of him getting votes. However at the very least I suggest looking into my post and his filter...being active doesn't make you town.
Dandel doesn't come off as scummy to me yet, and I posted earlier why I didn't buy the case against rethos. He's open to lynching debears, stutters, remedy, and possibly another lurker. Meaning if he's mafia it's less likely for these others to be mafia as well.
Remedy...I think he's a last resort lynch at best. I can't make any reads off him. His activity is in line with what he said his work schedule would be. His posts are too short, he votes without explanation, and his arguments don't make much sense...but I have trouble differentiating this between mafia and confused town. From what I can see his reads are pretty much null on the three main candidates. Read sonic's filter during N1. He spends a huge amount of time going after atreides. I think it's most likely that it was the mafia who nk'd sonic (at least 2 roleblocks are already accounted for so I doubt the specific mafia who did the nk was roleblocked) So what I'm seeing is the person who mafia decided it was important to kil was someone who was strongly going after atreides. FOS Atreides- So, thrawn had 2 main scumreads for the lynch: remedy and rethos. thrawn had retracted his argument on Atreides. Now, after the lynch, thrawn makes a case on Atreides. Also, thrawn has failed to address dandel's case after the flip, which he seemed to strongly indicate before the lynch that one of them was likely scum. And actually the statement highlighted in there did seem true. Now, however, I'm bringing the case to light.
Thrawn, your d3 posts have fallen in quality and substance compared to those of your first two days. I'm not sure why. I do have thoughts though.
The Mason Murderer:
Since the mason claim, I'd say that thrawn has been pretty obnoxious with his uncertainty of the masons, despite the fact that he confirmed them himself. During the night, we lost our good mason, sharrant. But something looked weird in thrawns interaction with him.
On September 24 2012 07:26 thrawn2112 wrote:
Hey sharrant are you reading the thread right now this very moment?
On September 24 2012 07:33 thrawn2112 wrote:
Ok I got a question for you that I want you to respond to as soon as you can... confirm you're looking at the thread again?
On September 24 2012 07:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can you post the mason qt again? I don't doubt you're mason but at this point I want to consider every possibility. So please post it as soon as you humanly can.
On September 24 2012 07:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
gogogo
On September 24 2012 07:49 thrawn2112 wrote:
Ok. I don't think there's any way you could have made all that up just now, time stamps and everything. Just had to make sure though because if you had somehow fooled us earlier then we'd be completely fucked.
Alright I'll stop there. Why is thrawn in such a rush to get another qt to confirm his confirmation. WHY DID HE DO IT AT NIGHT???. If thrawn is town, the Sharrant mason confirmation would not be required at night. It just doens't make sense from a town perspective with his concentration on the mason claim.
Coincidentally, sharrant is killed soon after.
Thrawn, I took the look at your filter, and all this evidence is substantial.
My mancrush is over. It hurts, but I'll find a new one eventually.
##Vote: Thrawn
btw guys. Going to bed now. I have classes til 3, practice from 3 to probably 6 my time, and then I'm supposed to have weights. If I can be here for lynch I will. However, it is extremely unlikely I can contribute another analysis. I await Jacob's posts (anyone else making one?). I will read what I can throughout the day.
p.s. please read as much as you can bear. It's long as shit but this lynch HAS to be right. That's why I put this much time into this.
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