Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI

Voting for drazak. His first and 2nd post came within 2 hours after the game started, so we know that he was here reading the thread at that time and knew that the game had started. His next post comes a little over 12 hours after his 2nd at which point there has been plenty of discussion but all drazak talks about is lynch policy. The post where he finally gives reads comes in almost a day and a half after the game started. Why would it take anyone that long to give a read? And in that post which gives the most insight into his throught process, all he does is list each player and write a couple short sentences about each. What I said earlier about lists:


In summary: He lurks throughout the entire game and only shares reads near the end of D1. Those reads are short and insubstantial and are not intended to spark further conversation. He never questions anyone or makes direct accusations. He's trying to blend in.

Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place.



(this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour)

I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.

3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.

So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.

There are a couple of posts that caught my attention.



This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Then there's this:



The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why?



This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Things like that set my Mafia alarms ringing immediately - especially since the rest of that post is just extremely wishy-washy and fluffy non-content... Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?



At first I thought kushm4sta looked suspicious, but in the end, I really doubt Mafia would go on such a rampage of careless posts - they would much rather hide and wait for good opportunities. Then there's this post that he just posted:



A very proactive post with good reasoning. kushm4sta is looking strongly town to me at the moment.

It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement.

(As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)

I find it hard to believe that kville would actually be Mafia. Most of the time Mafia are semi-lurkers with fluffy and careful posts, but kville has done literally nothing so far. It's an extreme risk for Mafia, especially since the overall atmosphere is so anti-lurker. We would lose nothing of value by lynching him, but more likely we'd just hit town and proceed to Day 2 with no new information.

I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia.

Sonic Death Monkey and Kreb looked pretty suspicious based on their first (really fluffy) posts, but their later posts have been much better. I'm willing to wait and see some more from them before I can make a judgement.

The ones I'm willing to lynch right now are Cubu, WeeTee and Stutters695. Cubu has posted only fluff, a slight suspicion of drazak and several suggestions to lynch a lurker. All very easy and careful things to say - things that Mafia would like to say in order to blend in and avoid unnecessary attention. WeeTee's first post is pure fluff and the next one is pretty wishy-washy and non-committing. The filter of Stutters695 is full of fluff and non-committing stances.

I'm in bit of a hurry already, so I'm going to vote for Cubu. I might be able to come back online a bit later, but not anymore closer to the deadline :/

##Vote Cubu

Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.

So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town.

For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town.

Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are?

I'll also post my other townread on Drazak. Maybe Im over-analyzing things, but this one little part of a sentence actually had me fairly conviced. Let me explain:

Page 14 if you wanna re-read.
What had happened before was:
Thrawn had made a case on Drazak.
Drazak had responded with a bunch on replies.
I pointed out Drazaks defense being lackluster.
The drazak pointed out this:

See what Im getting at? Probably not. The key thing to me is this:

That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us.

So, it it possible it was? To me, no. Because purposedly placing a feeling on guilt there is a pretty damn crafty move. And had drazak been a crafty mafia, he would never have put himself in that situation to begin with. He would never have replied so badly to Thrawns accusations had he been a crafty mafia.

So whats more likely?
A) He got taken by surprise by thrawns accusations, immediately tried to defend himself, but upon seeing my post kinda talk down on his defense feelt guilt and the need to excuse himself.
B) Purposedly responded badly to thrawns accusation. Then upon seeing my comment gladly noticed that "hey, now is the perfect time to apologize for my bad defense, surely someone will make a read on me thats its genuine guilt and i'll look townish".

Am I over-anazyling things? Maybe. But to me drazak is looking town at least.

quick little bugger arnt you? Yes, voted for xatalos. Because any other case would be null if it was given as there are only but a few hours left, with me and xatalos in the lead. But enough fluff.

Xatalos claimed in his 10 minute made post , that casey and I were trying to mafia corner him becuase we both attacked. That is just a weak defense and he is trying to deflect accusations against him to others. It was a poor accusation.

I attacked him because he tried to attack a player with little information. Which is what scum try to do. They feed off the weak in order to attack.

I believe he is the best choice at this moment becuase of his suspicious attacks against both me and casey. Not only attacking but already trying to make connections.

Disclaimer: phone posting. alignment of text may be off.

I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.

Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.

##Vote Kushm4sta

Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused.
We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants.
We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt.
Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us?

In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me.

I pushed the cubu vote because
1)he was a bad poster/lurker and it worked as a policy lynch if nothing else
2)how he turned revealed a lot about thrawn, who i assumed medic or jb would save because he was the obvious choice in my mind
I thought it was very fishy that thrawn tried to redirect twice, and so I got very excited with the prospect of identifying two mafia in the first day.
Also at the time I thought, as did thrawn, that kville was going to be replaced. So that's why I called him the worst townie. Now it's clear that honor belongs to kville.

Also jacob I don't get how this is a good argument? It's reasoning is only one sentence:

I think he means that then thrawn would be mafia, but right now that sentence, which is his ONLY argumentation, makes no sense.

I didn't think anyone else seemed more scumlike than he did. Although I did know that was a big chance of him not being scum. See, drazzy darling, when there are a ton of lurkers/terrible townies in the game like yourself, it makes it pretty fucking hard to win as town.

And my last defense of myself is to invoke the holy name of the late thrawn, who, on the night of his untimely death, proclaimed me as his biggest town read. Read his defense of me because I'm sure it's better than anything I could do.
REST IN PEACE THRAWN TT

Not to OMGUS, but this actually makes drazak seem quite suspicious to me. Mostly because I am the most active poster now that thrawn is gone. Maybe I'm biased about the matter but what do other people think? I will look through his filter more tomorrow.

So, you weren't actually scum hunting, why weren't you scum hunting? Couldn't figure out who to lynch and actually make a good case for because you're mafia? Just because thrawn called you town doesn't make you town.

For the record, town doesn't need a leader, a leader can hurt a town more than help, if the leader is mafia, we're all fucked. Saying that you're the most active doesn't actually make you town. We agreed that the only deciding factor is that being too lurker-ish is scummy. Active does not equate to town.

Accusing me because I'm accusing you is a very bad idea, that's like, the #1 worse scum defense. So tell me, with logical terms, good reasons, and actual evidence, who your best two scum reads are?

A girl told me she likes my glasses.. that means she wants to fuck me right?
ANYWAY
@drazak



I was scumhunting, I just didn't have a great idea of who was scum day 1, as no one did. I thought cubu looked more like mafia than anyone else.
Scumhunting doesn't' mean figuring out 100% who is mafia, that is impossible.

Thrawn calling me town doesn't make me town--this is true. But thrawn is a confirmed innocent so at least we know that all his motivations were pro town and his beliefs genuine.

Drazak I agree the town doesn't need a leader, but I think we do need to be focused. And what I mean by that is we should not all be analyzing different people. That is what mafia wants because it makes it easy for mafia to hide amidst that confusion and not to take a stance on people he doesn't want to take a stance on.


You ask me who my best scum reads are atm. I will comply. As of now it's xatalos, for reasons already posted. I still want to analyze your filter more, drazak, but I will say that accusing me out of the blue, since for many I am a strong town read, was not really a safe move, and that gives you town points...minor town points though, because you may have thought that cubu flipping green justified your suspicion.
Other people I am suspicious of is stutters, since he has been absent for quite a while now.. I really want to see what he is going to post today before I make a judgement on him.

I will post more substantially later.


PS I really don't want to lynch kville in light of his most recent post and just thinking about it more. He deserves the lynch maybe because his play was just really bad and anti town but I don't want to waste it on him.
Also I think it is mostly a waste of time to discuss him, since there is not much to talk about or analyze in his posts

Now I would also like to point out this.


After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has.

He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was


This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association.


I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town.

He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular.



While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him.

Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way.


Now I am going to transition to drazak.
His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons.





Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this.


But then his day one post was this

The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town.

Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak.
Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.”