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Posting this really quick in the hopes that MMToss will be able to read it before he leaves. I always think over my posts too long before posting, and this shit happens.
@Mementoss:
What would you have said if ghost didn't say anything today except "I've got stuff to do so I won't be here today. I vote snb for <insert reasons here>."? I understand that these are two extremes, but ghost mentioned before that he was going to be afk most of Saturday, and as I see it what he's done is the best way for him to contribute if he can only be here shortly. He's given us what insight he can from the first day or so, and at the very least this gives us a lot of information to hold him to when he returns. If he decides to launch an attack on marv because of a potential SnB mislynch, he'll have to explain how he went from a slight town read to a scum read.
I feel like I know more about him than I know about you. Your first case against Shady was dropped, apparently, simply because he agreed with you about ghost. What are your current thoughts on Shady? You seemed pretty sure about his scumminess before, but a similar shared read on a third party was able to sway your view that much?
Shady is looking scummier to me. He seems particularly adamant about looking at bandwagoners, but said nothing about those who bandwagoned onto Palmar. That was the most suspicious case, as there was very little reasoning behind it and the target has actually flipped town. Who has he accused? The MMToss bandwagon: ghost, Palmar(town), BMB (town), mkfuba(town, but don't take my word for it), and HiroPro. He went so far as to say that the three of us who are still alive are a scumteam based on this unflipped bandwagon. He was so sure of our guilt when our target hasn't flipped yet, but shows no suspicion towards those on the Palmar bandwagon, a far more suspicious case. He then skips right over that bandwagon and accuses those who are voting for SnB despite there being an extremely viable reason for voting for him. It's true that both HiroPro and ghost_403 have voted for SnB, and they appear to have been his greatest suspicions D1. However, he completely ignores the ridiculous bandwagon on Palmar, who we actually know was a mislynch. There were reasons to vote for MMToss. There are reasons to vote for SnB. There were practically no reasons to vote for Palmar, and this is the bandwagon he ignores in his hunting.
##Vote Shady Sands
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It's true, when I woke I was still set on going through MMToss's filter, and Shady's repeat of his bandwagon suspicions made me suspicious in turn. I would have included my thoughts on SnB in the previous post, but as I hastily explained, I took too long thinking about MMToss and Shady and wanted to try to let MMToss respond before leaving.
Regarding SnB, I don't believe there's two different kinds of millers. I'm more inclined to believe he is a traitor of some sort (from what I understand of traitors). SnB showed evidence of having different insight into the workings of how his supposed miller role worked than one would gain from the role PM that we saw from Palmar the Suspicious Detective.
I think he's scum.
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For those of you who want to see a current vote count (and correct me if I'm wrong).
Votes for SnB (7) - HiroPro, marvellosity, Node, MrZentor, ghost_403, Risen, Hopelessr1der
Votes for ghost_403 (3) - Mementoss, strongandbig, Shady Sands
Votes for Shady Sands (1) - mkfuba07
@Shady:
You mean like this?
On September 01 2012 09:04 ghost_403 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2012 01:21 Mementoss wrote:
I'm not too fond of the way ghost has been defending mamba at every chance he gets. It's fine to defend a player if you don't think they're town but leave it at that. Cause when he comes back to the thread he can just mirror the things that ghost said to defend him, or otherwise there is at least a lot less pressure on him to give an adquete response about his case and such. That being said, most of ghosts talk so far has been on this, so I would like to ask him if he had to make a vote now, who would it be and why?
My opinion on this BMB fiasco is that he seems a bit scummy to me. His posts just rub me the wrong way and his case was bad. I'm not going to go much farther into this as it's already been fleshed out by many but I'll be interested in seeing a response from him. The way he talks about his personal scum preferences is odd, and the question to the hosts could just be a scam to make himself look town, when he actually knew the answer because he received this fake role. I think the case was bad and forced from a scum perspective because if you look through his early filter he realized he was talking a lot, but it was purely filler, and was scared of getting called out on it soon, so he decided to make a case up so no one would call him out for "contributing without actually saying much".
I agree that Risen's play is not his normal town play, of guns blazing and doing crazy shit to get reactions out.
If we are going to set the tone here that lurking is unacceptable as town we might as well start day one, and try to set ourselves up for a winning situation later in the game. Also based on his less than stellar game history... So for now..
##Vote: Mr.Zentor
Also I think that people should be giving their gut thoughts and put in a vote at the start of each day, so we can discuss our way through the best person for the lynch throughout the day. People don't seem to realize how short a 24 hour cycle is, so getting a vote in ASAP is important for discussion and consolidation on voting out a scum. Obviously this is impossible to do on day 1, but I think it should be done for further days.
This is the post done by Mementoss that makes me think that he's scum. Take a close look at what he's saying in this post. - Ghost is defending BMB
- BMB is scum
- Risen is a bit off
- Hey, let's lynch a lurker
To the first point, he points out that I've been defending BMB, which is not true. I've been trying to force a discussion about BMB with the people who have been voting BMB. I specifically point that out in this post and this post. Look at what he said real carefully. It's not that he disagrees with what I did. I think he's misrepresenting what I've done in the game up until this point in order to undermine my position in the town. Reading his position on BMB, you realize that he's all over the place in his read. "bit scummy", "make himself look town", "the case was bad and forced from a scum perspective"... All of this would make you think that given a bullet, he'd shoot BMB dead. So why isn't he voting BMB, or at the very least pressuring on him hard? If I was that convinced someone was scum, I'm going to do everything I can to make him sweat bullets and get him lynched. MMToss just kind of admits it, and leaves it hanging. Next, Risen is a bit off. Everyone said that. Next! Finally, he votes Zentor. His vote on Zentor isn't based around the fact that he think's he is scum, he's simply voting for him because he feels compelled to vote. I don't see him putting a lot of thought into his vote, which is exactly what a mediocre scum player does. TL;DR - I think MMToss is scum because of this post. I'm going to be rather upset if the town lets him off the hook.
Do you not see this as reasoning behind his vote? Or do you not see it as being "independent" enough? Or did you not read his filter before saying that he didn't support his vote?
As for this quote:
He also tells town to pressure Risen over the Palmar lynch, which looks to me like scum trying to set town up for a second mislynch after stumbling on D1. Why not blame yourself, Ghost, for offering no independent analysis on why you voted MMToss?
He provided his own reasoning for voting for MMToss, and actually voted for someone other than Palmar. How can you try to place the blame for the mislynch on him in any way? Maybe he should have been here spamming "Vote for my candidate guys! He's scum!" a few hours before the deadline. Maybe that would have stopped that mislynch that he didn't promote.
@All:
I'm actually not understanding how ghost's post is so scummy. Is that the general feeling when posts like this are seen?
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Why is it that every time we attack one of HiroPro/Ghost/Mkfuba, they all end up pushing other candidates/defending each other immediately thereafter?
For me, it could be because I tend to disagree with most of what you say. Furthermore, if by "defending" HiroPro, you mean when I didn't vote for him when there were two lynch candidates with more votes and I wanted to make my vote count instead of wasting it on a third party with little chance of being lynched, then yes I defended him. As for ghost, I wasn't trying to defend him, though I somehow expected you to say that. I simply think your case is bad. Possibly bad.
All Ghost did there was repeat what others already said on an 18 hour old post. MMToss had moved far beyond that post already by the time it was posted.
It was under 8 hours old. Anyway...
I keep trying to respond to this, but too much of it relies on ghost's reasoning. Instead, I'll just say that I agree that ghost could have commented more on MMToss by the time of the vote, but I don't see his vote as scummy. Not being able to reference a post because it's old seems silly to me, and not using an argument simply because another person said it first is equally silly.
I see that SnB has flipped. I would have changed my vote from Shady to SnB to ensure a lynch on him, but it appears I don't have to.
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I'm going to point out this post where I suspect him of being a traitor. I came to that conclusion and I think scum would be able to come to it too.
Also take note that SnB's kill had to happen at least 4 hours after the PM. It could be relevant to look at when the previous two townies died and see what they were saying four hours before that. I know it wouldn't be solid evidence, but it could be pertinent.
I'm getting dinner, be back later 
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EBWOP: That wasn't to either prove my innocence nor my guilt. It was simply showing that it is possible that someone considered him to be a [b]traitor[/b/.
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EBWOP2: That wasn't to either prove my innocence nor my guilt. It was simply showing that it is possible that someone considered him to be a traitor.
Sorry, formatting errors drive me crazy.
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I believed I had a case on Shady. It was incorrect, but I'm pretty sure I made it clear how I felt about how I would vote between Shady and ghost. I voted for Shady because I didn't want scumhunting to come to a halt simply because we had caught SnB. As I said in a later post (which was unfortunately after the lynch (but would have come before the deadline)) I would have gladly switched my vote to SnB if more switched to ghost. I wanted to see who would try to save him.
Unfortunately, since he was a traitor on D2, I'm not sure what we can actually draw from the lynch. Whether or not SnB would have found Kira in two checks is impossible to tell, and whether or not Kira actually picked up on what SnB was up to is difficult to tell. I see any analysis beyond that to be incredibly WIFOM-y and it makes my head hurt.
Analysis of the kills: It's likely that both of today's deaths were the work of scum. Unless we get a message from L (through marv) that one of them was a tow vigi shot of some sort, I'm going to assume that Kira wanted them both dead for some reason. The fact that both Shady and MMToss voted for ghost doesn't escape me, so I'm going to give a lot of thought to that. I also find it strange that this was done instead of killing Hiro when he claimed cop. If Hiro was telling the truth, then either Kira didn't believe him, or killing both of these players was simply more important to him.
I'm going to start search through SnB's filter and see who he doesn't mention. I feel like he would have refrained from accusing people he suspected to be Kira. I'm also going to go through the filters of people who have flipped town and were killed by scum, but I want to check SnB's contributions first.
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On September 03 2012 02:35 MrZentor wrote:
I'm pretty confident Shady's death was a vigilante kill....
Why?
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I think that L has ways of knowing if one of his "servants" killed someone, so I'm going to stick to his messages. I'll also trust that he had some way to confirm marv before making him his right hand. I think most of the power for each side is concentrated primarily in the L and Kira roles.
Based on that thought it's occurred to me that Kira may still be effectively working alone, if all of those following him have to find him first. It's pretty speculative, but this may affect what I previously said about both deaths being carried out for a single purpose. Unless I hear from L, I'll still believe that both were the work of scum, but I might not believe that the Shady + Mementoss kills were collectively more important than a Hiro kill.
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I got nothing from reading SnB's filter other than his vote for ghost. I want to hear what marv says about him, and I would also like to see him return to the thread. His absence after that previous post is raising my suspicions. He can't be held to what he said if he never comes back...
Pre-edit: ninja'd
Fluff: I hate Zentor. I still don't know what to think of him, I just dislike his play.
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Not sure whether to be glad or nervous that I was completely ignored on Zentor's list...
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I didn't feel particularly inclined to vote for ghost D2. I had a relatively null read on him, though marv's post revealed some things that I hadn't properly considered before.
Two things that seemed strange after reading marv's post:
1) This is regarding #2. Ghost says that he didn't see the need to rehash his suspicions because they were the same as Hiro's. I accept this. However, the fact that he wasn't satisfied when Hiro was and provided no alternate reasoning against which MMToss could defend himself makes me suspicious. I see this as scummy. At the same time, I provided less room for MMToss to defend himself, though I didn't really claim to have had solid reasons for voting for him.
2) Regarding #4: Ghost's explanation resonates with me. I had such feelings about MMToss D1 and voted based on it. His D2 vote was more legitimate than my D1 vote. I only find it strange that he would say that his suspicions were confirmed without having stated those suspicions beforehand. Personally, I only reiterate that I had a certain read if I mentioned having that read beforehand. It may just be a playstyle difference. I'm not sure if I'd consider it a scumtell.
It feels hypocritical to vote for ghost based on reasoning that could apply to me as well, but there are some subtle differences. At the moment I would be willing to vote for him, but I want to take a look at a few other people - Mr.Z, Risen, Hopeless, and Node for the sake of transparency - before placing my vote. My last two scumreads flipped town today, so I need to broaden my search.
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Alright, after my perusal of the four filters I mentioned earlier, I've decided to:
##Vote MrZentor
He votes almost arbitrarily for any of the potential lynch candidates with little reasoning and just about no support when his vote is questioned. I was going between MrZentor, ghost, and Node. My suspicion of Node stemed from his absence D1, his infrequent posting, and one of his comments that I had misunderstood. I do believe he could be contributing more, so some suspicion remains, but what he's said while here sounds reasonable.
The fact that the 2 people in the game that I currently have a pretty good town read on are voting him too certainly helps.
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On September 03 2012 08:42 ghost_403 wrote:
Sigh.
I really wish I could come back here with some amazing analysis that shows why we should be voting Zentor today.
##vote MrZentor
I feel the same way. I just don't see better options and his play hasn't been very townie...
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##Vote Risen
At the moment I have no reasons to doubt HiroPro, and fewer reasons to doubt L telling us to listen to him.
The international has me in a dota-y mood, so I'm going to play a bit. I'll be online for about 5 hours before the lynch in case anything new arises.
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I want to hear Risen's response to what Hiro said about marv's post.
@Risen:
Why did you trust Hiro's cop claim? Is this semi-mason power your only ability as L?
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He made a cop claim and lived this long because I believed that L had some reason to fully believe his claim. I see your claim being as valid as his, so I'm probably going to unvote shortly.
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Anyone have an L counterclaim? Until then:
##Unvote
I have a question about voting. does this:
Scum wins when their number is equal or more than town's number. override this:
5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first is lynched.
I ask because if we mislynch D3 it will result in the teams being 3 town/2 scum (if I've done my math right, it's currently 5-2, with a mislynch and today's scumkill = 3-2). If the three town vote for someone before the two scum vote for someone, will the town vote have priority over the scum vote since it was the person with the most votes first? Or is it instant scum win when it's 2-2?
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On September 03 2012 15:40 mkfuba07 wrote:
##Vote Risen
At the moment I have no reasons to doubt HiroPro, and fewer reasons to doubt L telling us to listen to him.
The international has me in a dota-y mood, so I'm going to play a bit. I'll be online for about 5 hours before the lynch in case anything new arises.
The bold portion sums up my recent confusion. My faith in Hiro was based on a belief that L had some way to confirm people's alignment (as that makes perfect sense, him being the Head Investigator and all). Risen's L claim was the only thing that would make me doubt Hiro's cop claim in the slightest. The fact that he claimed to have only the mason-like ability made me suspicious, though.
I suspected Hiro to be L since he claimed cop, but it wasn't a sure thing. L's confirmation of it earlier made me believe him. And Hiro's recent claim fits perfectly into what I believed was likely going on. The fact that there is no "L's servant" further confirms it for me, since no one has come forward to claim having killed hapa. If you were L, Risen, how did you know that hapa's death was a town vigi kill if you didn't do it, and you didn't have any additional powers allowing you to know who did?
Finally, Risen's newfound shock that we haven't been suspecting Hiro of lying about his claim this entire time, when he is only just now mentioning it, reeks of scum desperation. Especially because it was supposedly his own words that made us believe Hiro.
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EPT
