EPTTL Mafia LVII
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On August 25 2012 06:15 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Me. If I am town I will be offed night 1 by mafia. If I am mafia I will be offed by town or bussed by mafia. If i am Third party I will be checked first shot day 2. I r going to lose. it's not that easy. You either die d1/d2 or you survive until the very end. Pretty much no matter of alignment lol | ||
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On August 27 2012 13:48 BroodKingEXE wrote: Play! judging by the roster its gonna be a pretty average game. I dont think there are any vets yet. [image blocked] Besides. Sandroba + Forumite + what BC said | ||
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On August 27 2012 22:14 Quatol wrote: playerlist updated, thinking about starting game this week. now everyone knows who you are. Want to trade that smurf with my WereBugs-Go smurf for maximum confusion? | ||
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On August 29 2012 23:57 Quatol wrote: No, assassins can shoot each other. That's what their one bullet is for. and here I thought that one bullet was for VE no matter what. Do you need/want a specific number of people to start or is it just starting on <insert date here> ? | ||
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On August 30 2012 07:43 goodkarma wrote: lol I'm not saying I expect that everyone playing this is going to be a mafia superstar. But getting a chance to play with some of the best players in TL mafia should be a great learning opportunity  .you're welcome :3 | ||
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And well, I get those godcomplexes people tend to hate if I got a fancy role so being VT would be nice from time to time to just screw about all the special tactics and just play a straight up town game. Though, this isn't a request or anything like that. I want my role to be randomed like every other role :p | ||
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"duuuude. I'm bodyguarded vet with with 2 nighthits per cycle and I'm confirmed town. Let's just kill everyone who isn't me" | ||
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And here I thought I'm going to get killed during d1 by some asshole dayvig or suicide bomber. | ||
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On September 03 2012 00:04 Lvdr wrote: In the short term this may be effective, but I feel like that sort of play capitalizes on relative inexperience instead of taking a long term approach (pre-game explanations) that will ultimately contribute to having a more sophisticated game and more skilled players. Once the game starts, players have built-in biases (town, mafia, blue role) that will govern how much or little information they are willing to share. Policy decisions (ie. whether to attempt a mass-claim strat) cannot be made except in-game. Discussing these things now is indeed pointless. However, once the game is started the wrong question could slip something that could have been covered before the game started. I think this is relevant because of the uniqueness of the setup. Also I redact my /out lol. Not quite sure where it came from. Discussion about how to deal with a game should be dealt with when the game starts and never before the game started. Yeah you can talk about broad stuff like "I think that role is imba and you should nerf it!" if you spot something like that but talking about how the game should play out given the set-up is pretty much always a hindrance. Probably going to help mafia more than town imo, but I'm not going to talk about this more than I already did here. Going to explain postgame if you want me to :p | ||
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On September 03 2012 17:28 Palmar wrote: The game will start Monday, Sep 03 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) that's 12:00 (aka noon) for me. According to the OP the deadline should be 24:00 for me. Is that on purpose and d1 gets to be 12 hours longer or is that a mistake because you typed in something like 12:00 instead of 24:00 when doing the [time]-tag out of a habbit? | ||
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On September 03 2012 22:45 Quatol wrote: Reads fine to me? Deadline is 22:00 GMT, or 23:00 BST. mmmh. Maybe 12:00AM is supposed to be read as 00:00 and not noon. Well thanks anyways so it's supposed to be the deadline. Edit: Oh yeah, Quoting actually shows the time you typed in, 22:00gmt so that would have solved the issues as well :p | ||
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Actually no. Got to be 26,X hours: The game will start Tuesday, Sep 04 12:00am CEST (GMT+02:00) Calling 00:00 "12am" is retarded but fine. But calling it 12:00am on Tuesday 4th when *in 2,X hours* is supposed to be the real date would be beyond retarded. 11:59 am Tuesday 4th is in 26,X hours so 12:00am got to be 1 minute afterwards and not 23:49 earlier :p Edit: Actually that makes no sense either. Totally retarded system... why can't TL just use digital times... I'm a stupid kid that grew up with digital watches. S&B saves the day. Why can't they just call it 00:00 though That's completly counterintuitive. | ||
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On September 04 2012 07:35 slOosh wrote: Alright I've been waiting for a while and gotta make use of this extra time due to Labor Day. Things to note is the change to permanent 2kp, as well as the addition of vigilante as a possible scum role. BM I'm interested on how any town circle would work with the existence of the suicide bomber. ##vote slOsh | ||
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On September 04 2012 07:42 grush57 wrote: HE MISSPELLED. THEREFORE SCUM! are you going to be useless again? I just want the heads-up | ||
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Or perhaps I don't like people pointing out useless stuff that has nothing to do with the game. I guess it has but what are we supposed to talk about the 2KP change or the vig addition he mentioned. | ||
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On September 04 2012 07:53 grush57 wrote: Well, there is nothing else to talk about then until a scumslip or something. Talking about rules and such is how you figure out people stances and opinions which leads to finding out who is playing like town and who is playing like scum. you say that and yet we're talking about why I think sloOsh deservers a vote and wether or not you agree with me. Funny, isn't it? | ||
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On September 04 2012 07:56 slOosh wrote: Hapa, what is your idea of a town circle and how does it help us find / lynch / kill scum? Toad - How is that useless stuff that has nothing to do with the game? The setup changed and maybe people haven't read the updates. I've asked you once and I'll do it again, what else do you want to talk about? I don't know what you want to talk about. I'm talking about your useless post being useless. | ||
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On September 04 2012 08:07 Hapahauli wrote: Toad, you seem pretty fixated on picking a fight with slOosh. It's only been a page, of posts, and he seems pretty townie to me. well that's probably because I'm picking a fight with him for the sake of picking a fight with SOMEONE. Grush actually explained it quite well without figureing it out. I really don't like people talk about set-ups, roles or something else early on so I'm trying to get out of that phase as fast as possible. He made a bullshit-post like at least 3 other people did and I pointed it out although it's on ridiculously thin ground for the sake of getting some discussion. Obviously you can take from that whatever you want. | ||
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On September 04 2012 08:14 slOosh wrote: Well your sentiment seems to be that you do indeed think I'm scum. Using my posts written prior to your retort (quoted above), can you show how you came to this conclusion? I think your post resembles someone trying to pretend to add something to the discussion while really only pointing out stuff that everyone else should know about. Like doing votecounts inbetween to "help" people. Yes it can actually help people but you can just help people by doing normal stuff. Obviously I'm not thinking you're mafia yet. I'm just pointing out that your post was bad without acknowledging that 50% of the posts done within the first 12hours or so are incredible bad to provoke reactions and that's what happened. Here we are, getting some decent information about how people think about each other and why they post something rather than talking about how the vig-change might influence the game, which is an incredible easy topic to cover for mafia. | ||
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On September 04 2012 08:28 Shady Sands wrote: Because if they hit a vet, they wouldn't know whether it was a medic, a vet, or whether their member got roleblocked. well you obviously insta-claim any RB and you insta-claim any hit you took. You don't have to tell what made you survive. | ||
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need an honest answer. What do you consider worse: a) People not thinking while posting / reading b) People defending other people 1 hour into the game when they have no reason to do such a thing and should be happy to see as much posts from the person in question defending himself rather than stopping the discussion defending him. | ||
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On September 04 2012 09:25 Mattchew wrote: lol... could you have asked this more rhetorically? yeah probably. Answer? | ||
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On September 04 2012 09:32 Hapahauli wrote: Ah thanks for clearing it up. I'm just a bit wary of D1 claims in general after having seen SnB's "self-aware miller" claim in DeathNote Mini Mafia, justified or not. Howabout c) People who pick fights with people who are trying to start conversation (slOosh) for the sake of picking fights? well sloOshs post has done nothing so far. My post was the reason we're having this discussion instead of talk about vigs or the 2KP change, which is, as already pointed out, an incredible easy topic for mafia to cover and blend in while people who are talking about reads, even if they're minor, have to stand their ground at least somewhat. Yes I totally see how that got to be malicious On September 04 2012 09:35 BroodKingEXE wrote: @Toad Im still confused about the vote on slOosh. You didn't agree with him for starting a useless discussion and that's grounds for keeping your vote on him? There never was a vote on him to begin with lol | ||
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On September 04 2012 09:33 Mattchew wrote: well you think its b. your wording says that, and I agree. however it completely depends on the situation. to play devils advocate, many TL towns have been blinded by stupid discussions about players that take up a lot of the thread and often lead to tunnelling and mislynches. If a simple defense post could avert this it would be better to have that post. here comes the actual question: Did you realize which post I was referring to? | ||
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Actually no but it's a good one as well. | ||
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On September 04 2012 10:08 Hapahauli wrote: So who/what are you referring to then? I thought it was my post that mattchew picked out as well. On September 04 2012 08:22 DoYouHas wrote: slOosh, my vote is neither stupid nor a throwaway. I have a friend who I consider a better player than me who has told me that getting BM out of the game quickly is always a good thing. It is meta as hell but it isn't stupid. Toad's aggression towards you is completely null. You seem to be playing into your town meta so far, but I really won't know for sure until your first/second case. I can perfectly talk about what I do myself and as Matt has pointed out, he should be happy to see both mine and sloOshs reaction to try and figure us out. Furthermore as sloOsh has already pointed out (I think?) him pointing out that someone is playing into a town meta so early got to be a joke. | ||
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On September 04 2012 10:22 Hapahauli wrote: Do they not provoke discussion? Him and Toadsstern were the center of the early-game discussion, and it seems pretty silly to be critical of someone's filter when they took it upon themselves to get things going. He sounds like a townie that's poking and prodding, looking for answers. This won't make him popular in the early game, but it does give me a town read on him. What gave you the impression that sloOsh's the one poking around and prodding while I am the evil mastermind trying to get people lynched? | ||
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On September 04 2012 10:27 Hapahauli wrote: Where did I say that? I think you're both town - that much should be inferred from my post. Oh considering this post: On September 04 2012 09:32 Hapahauli wrote: Ah thanks for clearing it up. I'm just a bit wary of D1 claims in general after having seen SnB's "self-aware miller" claim in DeathNote Mini Mafia, justified or not. Howabout c) People who pick fights with people who are trying to start conversation (slOosh) for the sake of picking fights? I figured you were referring to sloOsh being the guy in the shiny armor because you said This won't make him popular in the early game, but it does give me a town read on him. Thought him is singular and figured your read on me had not changed that quickly. | ||
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On September 04 2012 13:42 BroodKingEXE wrote: Toad: 1) He comes out of the box suspecting sloosh for posting a discussion starter. This is terrible reasoning, because firstly this is how 50% of all games start and second scum can use this as a cover, but he doesn't provide any reasoning from thinking he is for sure scum. 2) Wait a minute, you voted for him and from the way you posted to Grush you thought he was scum. You did think he was scum from that first vote. 3) This post is very passive to me, if he really was trying to obtain a response from sloosh, by now he should've had more than enough information to say town or mafia (or even come out and say null). What he has drawn from this is that he is "not thinking you're mafia yet", a stance that is pretty misleading. The last part makes something out of nothing tons of games start with some sort of non-alignment indicative conversation, does it really matter that sloosh's way was a slower way to reaching the same result? 4) The bolded part seems really out of place for a townie. It seems like a scum trying to buy cred for his actions. HIs reply to me avoids the question completely and lies about his intent before. Toad is scum. ##Vote: Toadstern 1) As mentioned. I never did. I picked him because he did a terrible post but frankly 50% of all the d1 posts are terrible. Clearly I can't say that to begin with though or I'd have to check out the 101 of pressuring again. 2) No I never thought he was scum based on that post as I already pointed out. I made it look like it to see what's going to happen. Again, it's somewhat like pressure although it's technically not the same. If I tell him "I think your post is stupid but as 50% of the d1 posts are usually stupid it's probably a null" he wouldn't have answered me at all or at least not in a fashion that would have provided any information. Neither would the rest of the thread have started talking about it. 3) More than enough information? It was 3 hours into the game and you keep treating it like I was only trying to get information on sloOsh. Yeah he was the main involved guy but the other people reacting to it (like you still not understanding what actually happened) is equally interessting. Not to mention that I obviously don't talk about my complete reads to openly unless I'm certain the guy in question is a mafia. What I pointed out is a fraction of a read. On his own not worth a damn but it's a piece worth discussing and therefore worth posting although the read isn't anywhere near "completed". If there is such a thing as a completed read. 4) The bolded part was a joke as he said the very same thing himself and I got myself a note in my sheet as well about it saying: clicky! That's kind of odd. He shouldn't say that if he's a townie. I don't need people to tell me their posts are useful. If your post is useful people are going to figure that out themselves. So it really looks like it he wants to tell everyone how helpful he is or he's honestly pissed. I guess it's a null right now, did the same in L when people finally lynched Sandro and rubbed it into their faces because I'm quite prideful myself. Could be both a prideful townie who's pissed that I'm calling his post bullshit or a mafia who wants to tell people how awesome he is to look better So as I had it down as a null I figured setting the score back to normal by doing the exact same thing with swapped names might work :p | ||
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##vote Matt | ||
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On September 04 2012 22:55 Ottoxlol wrote: Why so many people jump to vote Matt? Whatever is his alignment he fucked up. Does this makes him scum? Matt thought Noisys are aware of themselves. He has some kind of role. This is all we know. If he's blue he could have done it to protect himself from scum. If a scum would fakeclaim I think he would discuss it with his team first and do you all think every scum missed this thing? I highly doubt it. If anything Matt is a blue or assa. This just provides an easy wagon to jump onto and removes d1 discussion as a whole, no town benefit from that. Just because he did not play well it doesnt mean he's scum. a blue doctor, jailkeep, Tracker, Watcher or Vigi however has no reason to be afraid. Maybe a Mad Hatter would be hard to explain but I'd doubt someone would want to fakeclaim as miller like that as a Mad Hatter. Picture the situation you're in as a blue: We have trackers and Watchers. What happens is that at some time someone could say "Hey guys, Matt visited X at night Y". If he's a doctor, tracker or a watcher that's no problem at all because the target in question didn't die. We want to know who visited people who ended up being dead. If he's a doc there's actually a chance he ended up saving someone and that someone could even confirm that. If he is a tracker or a Watcher he is able to claim the results, something Mafia is not able to do. So a Doc, Tracker or a Watcher are all perfectly fine and there's no reason to fakeclaim like this. A Jailer can somewhat confirm himself as well as the target he visited ended up being roleblocked every single night. It's only "somewhat" because a mafia RB is possible as well but after all if he's a Jailer he's again only going to visit people who ended up surviving the night. A vig is somewhat tricky as it's an extremly easy fakeclaim for mafia to do but as long as you claim prior to the deadline everyone's going to be fine with that. A Mad Hatter is, like a vigi somewhat tricky but as everything else you visited people. That in itself is not a reason to be suspicious of someone and the Mad Hatter is most likely going to visit people who ended up surviving as well unless either the Hatter decides to go after townish looking people for whatever reason or mafia decides to go after bad looking townies for whatever reason. tl;dr: There's not a single scenario in which a fakeclaim as a blue makes sense. At least I can't think of one because you won't end up being tracked to a kill in pretty much all the cases. On top of that noone is going to be stupid enough to out someone who visited a guy who's still alive because that's basicly outing medics / tracker / watcher in most of the cases. However there are a bunch of good reasons to fakeclaim this as mafia if you forgot that millers / NN are usually not self-aware in 90% of the games and just did it because he recently played a game with self-aware millers. I think Bang-Bang mafia was one of those for example. So there's a shitton of explanations from a mafia point of view. The only possible explanation from a town point of view would probably be "reversed psychology" although you're making yourself a target doing so, which isn't what a blue wants to do either unless he's a Hatter d2 or later. | ||
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On September 05 2012 00:34 BroodKingEXE wrote: Thing is a reaction is usually only one post. He responded so Im gonna assume you got something from it. You mention others that had interesting reactions, but you haven't drawn any reads from them as well. You can understand my fustration though right? Right now I see you as a player that's asking questions but not paying attention to the answers. Scummy in my book. Just to make it clear : What have you drawn for the sloOsh exchange, have others reactions seemed scummy to you? (if nothing say nothing) yeah definitly. That's the reason I asked the not an actual quote but along the lines: "what do you consider worse: a) *stupid guy* b) *softdefending guy* Mostly I've got a bunch of people who I'd consider to be either lazy because they're not thinking while posting or they're mafia. I'm going to watch that a little more rather than pointing out every single thing I don't like because it's bound to include a mass of people who just don't have a clue what to do which is neither a mafia nor a town treat right now. Especially considering the people who said those things. | ||
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On September 05 2012 00:29 strongandbig wrote: lol. If matt was going to defend himself he would have said something by now other than "hey guys maybe I'm a VT trying to draw scum shots lol". I've played a bunch of games with Mattchew recently and based on those, I think this is him as scum. For example, if I were going to fakeclaim miller as scum, I would do it very differently. However, you have to remember a couple things about Mattchew: - he's lazy as fuck as scum, except in themed games - he's pretty aggressive as town a lot of the time. The example I was thinking about was from him in TL Mafia LV, where he and I were both town. He lied about taking a shot, and then when I suggested that it made no sense for him to take a scum shot and he might have been vigged, he attacked me like a moron for the rest of the game. Unlike that, in this game his lie doesn't have any follow-up. If it was a planned-out pro-town lie, which I imagine is what he'll pretend it is, he would have been all over the first few people to attack him. Instead he just disappeared. It seems much more likely that what he did was the same thing I did in deathnote - claimed miller without first asking the hosts whether millers are self-aware, and got caught for it. The difference is, I did it in a game with a closed setup. ##vote: mattchew yeah Matt really is someone who's really in your face both as a townie and a mafia. He's incredible aggressive and / or borderline insulting if people don't think the same way he does. As mafia he's telling people to shut up and that he doesn't need to explain his reads a bit because people are to retarded to understand it anyways when he knows he's right about something, e.g. when he's bussing a buddy, defending a townie to get towncred or geniunely meant something another way and people are misinterpreting what he said due to a type or something like that. As Town he does the same when he heavily think's he's right or when someone misunderstands him. His calm and almost not existing involvement here defenitly is not what matt does when somethings "wrong" according to him. That either means he acknowledges that he screwed up as a town or that he acknowledges that he screwed up as a mafia and doesn't think it's going to help anymore. As already mentioned I don't see a reason at all for a town to fakeclaim like this and combine that with him "giving up" and you're good to go. | ||
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If this was some random noob, fine but it's not, it's Mattchew. He most of the time knows what he's doing and certaintly doesn't need to check back with his buddies all the time. Additionally in the most recent games I played as mafia I figured that a lot of mafia teams really only rely on the QT and really seldomly use other means of communication like IRC or skype which slows down communication A LOT. So in the most recent games I played as mafia pretty much everyone just did their own thing and you would only end up discussing things like who to kill at night or wether or not it's fine if you bus each other. Again, if this was some random dude with 100 posts in his 3rd or 5th game of mafia fine, I'd agree he'd ask his buddies before doing something like this but Mattchew is not a random noob. I could maaaaaaybe see him fakeclaim as tracker on purpose IF he knew millers are not self-aware to lure out additional fakeclaims but I don't really see that giving his answers. And if that really was the case it'd be the most stupid kind of play I've ever seen. That's literally the most retarded thing you could come up with but it's at least something I could come up with while the scenarios for a mafia who just slipped make a whole lot of sense | ||
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On September 05 2012 02:01 Ottoxlol wrote: My problem with this reasoning is why blue/assa bad play is more probable then scum bad play? Even if you think Matt is not likely to discuss it with his team, he can so why is it more likely? If he's scum he misread the rules then fakeclaimed without discussing it with his mates or they fucked up too. If he's a tracker/assa, he misread the rules then fakeclaimed. in hope of some probable targets (thinking the other assassin would likely claim or maybe even scum) Why is the first scenario is more likely by 19 people? :D I just don't see it. Tell me what I miss Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. | ||
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On September 05 2012 02:15 Ottoxlol wrote: He not just fakeclaimed, he also asked everyone to do so :D I wrote down my thoughts about the scenario where he is a tracker, or an assassin, why do you ignoring it? Does it go against your easy D1 lynch plan? sloOsh and your "I'm confident so I'm town lets keep arguing about nothing so everyone can see us active" then your selective answers put you right into my fos along with Hapahauli's strange voteswitch. Yeah, he blend in perfectly with everyone voting him 1) because, as already mentioned, that kind of play is the most stupid thing you could do as townie. It's like fakeclaiming a red check on someone because you think the guy is mafia. You just don't do that. Never. Ever. 2) Yeah and clearly I'm the guy trying to stop discussion. My filter just screams "don't talk about anything and just vote guys!"... 3) I'm not answering selective. I'm answering in a way that people have to think about what I'm posting. If they don't I'll realize that and frankly you're one of the people who are reading whithout thinking for at least a second what's actually in the post and you've just proven it again. So stop whining about answers and try to show the will to understand what's going on. 4) I said the fakeclaim has a purpose as mafia while it has none as town. The purpose as mafia would be to blend in if he assumes millers are self-aware. I never said it was successful. Another example of you not even thinking about what was posted and just answering in a hury. I don't like that. 5) I answered this with those 4 (now 5) bullet points to make it a little easier to understand from your point. | ||
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On September 05 2012 02:40 Ottoxlol wrote: So you voted Matt because of BC's confidence. ?! + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 02:31 Toadesstern wrote: 1) because, as already mentioned, that kind of play is the most stupid thing you could do as townie. It's like fakeclaiming a red check on someone because you think the guy is mafia. You just don't do that. Never. Ever. 2) Yeah and clearly I'm the guy trying to stop discussion. My filter just screams "don't talk about anything and just vote guys!"... 3) I'm not answering selective. I'm answering in a way that people have to think about what I'm posting. If they don't I'll realize that and frankly you're one of the people who are reading whithout thinking for at least a second what's actually in the post and you've just proven it again. So stop whining about answers and try to show the will to understand what's going on. 4) I said the fakeclaim has a purpose as mafia while it has none as town. The purpose as mafia would be to blend in if he assumes millers are self-aware. I never said it was successful. Another example of you not even thinking about what was posted and just answering in a hury. I don't like that. 5) I answered this with those 4 (now 5) bullet points to make it a little easier to understand from your point. Sorry, but you are still ignoring my question. I will make it easy on you: Why is it more probable to make a mistake as scum when you CAN have discussion about your actions with the other ones, then it is to make a mistake alone? And I'm going to make it easy on you. I answered the question here: On September 05 2012 02:09 Toadesstern wrote: Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. and On September 05 2012 01:50 Toadesstern wrote: People who know how to play post things, including fakeclaims as mafia all the time without checking with their buddies and they slip from time to time. If this was some random noob, fine but it's not, it's Mattchew. He most of the time knows what he's doing and certaintly doesn't need to check back with his buddies all the time. Additionally in the most recent games I played as mafia I figured that a lot of mafia teams really only rely on the QT and really seldomly use other means of communication like IRC or skype which slows down communication A LOT. So in the most recent games I played as mafia pretty much everyone just did their own thing and you would only end up discussing things like who to kill at night or wether or not it's fine if you bus each other. Again, if this was some random dude with 100 posts in his 3rd or 5th game of mafia fine, I'd agree he'd ask his buddies before doing something like this but Mattchew is not a random noob. I could maaaaaaybe see him fakeclaim as tracker on purpose IF he knew millers are not self-aware to lure out additional fakeclaims but I don't really see that giving his answers. And if that really was the case it'd be the most stupid kind of play I've ever seen. That's literally the most retarded thing you could come up with but it's at least something I could come up with while the scenarios for a mafia who just slipped make a whole lot of sense | ||
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On September 05 2012 03:04 Ottoxlol wrote: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 02:45 Toadesstern wrote: And I'm going to make it easy on you. I answered the question here: and I really hope town will read this too. Since you are still ignoring my question, quiet deliberately and your early gameplay I think you are scum ##Vote: Toadesstern Yeah I really hope people read this because you asked me 3 times about it. I answered it twice and pointed the answeres to you and you're still unwilling to read them lol | ||
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On September 05 2012 03:04 Ottoxlol wrote: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 02:45 Toadesstern wrote: And I'm going to make it easy on you. I answered the question here: and I really hope town will read this too. Since you are still ignoring my question, quiet deliberately and your early gameplay I think you are scum ##Vote: Toadesstern actually LOL this is a scumslip: really hope town will read this too. Are you telling me you're not town? | ||
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On September 05 2012 03:18 Toadesstern wrote: actually LOL this is a scumslip: Are you telling me you're not town? as noone seems to mention this I assume I'm the only one reading this as a scumslip? | ||
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On September 05 2012 03:55 Ottoxlol wrote: @austinmcc I mean mistake like bad play, whatever is his alignment he shouldn't have claimed. Tell me why is it more likely that he did it as scum then blue/assa? So everyone thinks that he did not communicate with his scumbuddies. THATS speculation. I think he is not scum. Why? We have zero information other than he did a fake-claim and everyone jumped on the wagon. No one answered why did they, other than Toads very weak- close to nothing meta reasoning. + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 03:18 Toadesstern wrote: actually LOL this is a scumslip: Are you telling me you're not town? You got me :D Nice ignoring my question for the 5th time in a row. You claim to be not newbie right? So then why is your reasoning so weak? Are you making these up on the go? You broke under the smallest pressure lol yes. Clearly I'm the one breaking under pressure here. You've got to be kidding me. Again, stop ignoring what I posted and read those 2 posts: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 01:50 Toadesstern wrote: People who know how to play post things, including fakeclaims as mafia all the time without checking with their buddies and they slip from time to time. If this was some random noob, fine but it's not, it's Mattchew. He most of the time knows what he's doing and certaintly doesn't need to check back with his buddies all the time. Additionally in the most recent games I played as mafia I figured that a lot of mafia teams really only rely on the QT and really seldomly use other means of communication like IRC or skype which slows down communication A LOT. So in the most recent games I played as mafia pretty much everyone just did their own thing and you would only end up discussing things like who to kill at night or wether or not it's fine if you bus each other. Again, if this was some random dude with 100 posts in his 3rd or 5th game of mafia fine, I'd agree he'd ask his buddies before doing something like this but Mattchew is not a random noob. I could maaaaaaybe see him fakeclaim as tracker on purpose IF he knew millers are not self-aware to lure out additional fakeclaims but I don't really see that giving his answers. And if that really was the case it'd be the most stupid kind of play I've ever seen. That's literally the most retarded thing you could come up with but it's at least something I could come up with while the scenarios for a mafia who just slipped make a whole lot of sense On September 05 2012 02:09 Toadesstern wrote: Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. Just read them. Like everyone else in the thread did and you'll figure out I answered your question 4 times now, like everyone else in the thread did. | ||
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On September 05 2012 04:18 strongandbig wrote: looks like you and me in the thread, toad. You do science, right? You just sitting around taking data too? Anyway, I just reread this post. Thought it was interesting that no one had commented on it yet. I certainly agree that misrepresenting history in posts to make your cases seem stronger is a scummy trait, but I'm not sure if that by itself is enough to call him scum#2 like that. However, given that it's milton's only post, it does draw attention. I'd like to hear something from Milton: - do you still think hapa is scum? - what do you have to say about his accusation that you misrepresented the facts? - do you think he was right or wrong about darthpunk? Does that matter to your read on hapa himself? Not exactly doing science yet. Still going to university trying to get my next Analysis- and Linear Algebra-bill/-certificate/-whatever-you-call-it-in-english next semester. Taking a lot of data isn't exactly what you're doing when you're trying to get your maths degree :p Honestly speaking I saw that post as well and yeah it's a decent point but it's more of a "he's playing bad" than a "he's got to be mafia". I'm exaggerating and lying from time to time as well for multiple reasons. Don't think it's a specific trait for Hapahauli in either direction yet. Kind of the same feeling I got on sloOsh right now. | ||
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We've got like 1915851861 people voting Matt. You think a mafia would get in here and hard-defend him the way he did? It's a tricky argument because clearly mafia could do that just because of what I just said and clearly if it was someone like WBG or BC (well or myself but I'm town :p ) I'd consider it a possiblity or even likely. But other than those 2 (3) people I'd highly doubt anyone would have the balls to do that as a mafia. Maybe DrH (hasn't played in a while so don't know) or BM because he doesn't care lol. I could see Ottox being some gonzaw-like-paranoid townie, which is unlikely but possible just the same way I could see him being a mafia defending a buddy like that. So long story short: Both explantions seem unlikely but that's due to the fact that it makes little sense no matter of alignment from my point of view. I wouldn't say Ottox being mafia is the conclusion we should favor based on the fact that he's defending Matt. Not to mention that Matt hasn't flipped yet. Let's talk about what Matts flip means once we see him flip, shall we? If you want to talk about how someone is weird because of how they posted fine but talking about how someone's alignment because of a not yet seen flip is retarded. | ||
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Not sure if that was you or if I'm mistaking you for someone else. Just curious. | ||
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On September 05 2012 09:40 Ottoxlol wrote: But he thought it was. Since no one made a case other than he's lying therefore scum. I tried reasoning his claim and I got to the conclusion that he could very well be a blue or assa. He's even more likely to be one because it was a bad play whatever his alignment is, but as scum he could have discussed it with his team so there is less room for making a mistake this big. I was baffled by the fact that no town had came to this and asked why is that. 19 or something people already voted for him, I can only see it as a very easy wagon. People jump on with zero discussion, zero contribution. You realize that what you're saying in this post basicly comes down to "Mafia have teammates, therefore Mafias don't make mistakes". That's simply wrong. | ||
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On September 05 2012 09:59 Ottoxlol wrote: So we agree it was dumb. Now tell me how come everyone thinks it is a dumb scum play, not a dumb assa or blue? Don't forget he asked the other millers to claim. That can work as assassin for instance. Or baiting a scum RB to claim? IDK. All I know it gave scum a very easy D1, some ppl attacking others for defending Matt, but ignoring me. What is that about? Okay I'll try it a last time. Starting with stuff that is fast to explain and not with stuff that came first in your question: He wanted other people to claim: That's a null. That either means he's a townie and thinks claiming is the right thing to do for a NN, or he tried to lay a trap because he thinks it's the right thing to do for a NN, or he is mafia and thinks it's the right thing to do for a townie-NN. The important thing is that in ALL scenarios he thinks it's the right thing to do. All you get out of that is that Matt honestly thought it's a good move. Which isn't suprising considering that he claimed to begin with. Why not a dumb blue move: What you are suggesting is that he's a blue who is deliberately causing chaos, trying to get himself lynched and to go out with a bang with someone else, possibly a couple of cycles (at least one though) later wastomg at least 2 full cycles or if things go wrong wasting even more time while causing chaos WITHOUT actually lynching a mafia after a couple of cycles while still having ruined the discussion of multiple cycles because clearly everyone would be talking about his move only. Yeah I don't really see that happening, as already mentioned. Could he be an Assa Sure, could be, however it's pretty obvious he's EITHER Assa or mafia and never ever a townie. Lynching into "either assa or mafia" seems like a good deal to me. It gave scum an easy d1 So because he gave scum an incredible easy d1 you consider him more likely to be town? I don't see how that logic is working. Furthermore I don't think had an easy d1 no matter what Matt flips. We had an incredible good first half of d1. I've never seen a game start this quickly. | ||
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On September 05 2012 10:26 Ottoxlol wrote: You are so funny. It is bad for scum, it is bad for assa, it is bad for blue. It is bad. I did not asked that. I know it. You failed to answer my question (why is it more probable to do this as scum? it is bad for scum too.) for the xth time, I guess its better if you ignore me from now on, we clearly don't speak the same language. because it is bad for town in 100% of the cases. It never ends up being good. It can work for mafia and end up good or be bad. The question isn't wether or not it was good. The question is why he wanted to claim. He wanted to claim because he thought it's a good idea. That's the whole point you're ignoring. You keep on telling people "well herpa derpa but you see how horrible it went". Noone cares about it because that has nothing to do with the situation. | ||
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On September 05 2012 10:37 Ottoxlol wrote: Nice slip there scum. Assa could have a plan to get the other assa to claim also so he checks the claims. Well I said "maaaaaaaaybe" with a shitton of "a" in there for a reason. It's on the same level as the dude who fakeclaimed a red-check on a mod-confirmed blue in AC as a townie. It's 100% wrong. It's 100% retarded but sadly only 99% of the people realize this and there's always this one dude who thinks it's good to play against his wincon. That's the "maaaaaaybe" chance I'm giving him. | ||
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On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote: If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. | ||
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On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote: I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is.
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On September 06 2012 02:33 strongandbig wrote: I don't understand why you differentiate between what we should think of ottox between if matt flips town or third. Why does matt flipping third party make it more likely ottox is scum than if he flips town? I mean, it can't be "because ottox was right," given that his argument makes no sense. it is though. We've all seen weird shit happen like people claiming scum in the thread for no apparent reason just to flip green or even blue afterwards. For example in L Palmar played extremly stupid and everyone wanted to lynch him d1. I was pretty much the only guy who defended him because he did the very same thing the game before that as well and ended up flipping green. In the end I was about the only guy who said he won't vote palmar, palmar flipped green and WBG tunneled me into oblivion for the rest of the game for being "better than I should be". Especially after all the people I called out as mafia flipped mafia as well :p If Matt flips green it could technically be possible that Ottox saw something he isn't able to express, that's the point. That's why I said he got his 1 out of 25 chance to be town in that scenario though we probably shouldn't talk about it to much until we see Matt flipping. Should not have quoted and answered the thing to begin with... | ||
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On September 06 2012 01:47 Mattchew wrote: god you are all so scummy... except BC of course. On September 06 2012 01:47 Mattchew wrote: and BM.. I repeat, BM is def town! just screw everything I said. There's no way this dude is going to flip green lol | ||
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On September 06 2012 03:57 Ottoxlol wrote: At least I am not that retarded to attack someone on the ground of their first post that was clearly a joke. I already explained my motivation two post ago. If you need some help understanding it you can ask for it nicely Thing is: I never dodged your question and answered it 5 times. Thing is: Everyone in the thread agrees that I answered the question just fine Thing is: You say "Toad said X" (I did not answer the question) while 24 people in the thread are telling you "dude, just look at it, toad said Y" (he did) Thing is: You say "Toad is mafia because he said X. That is all I've got on him and totally makes him 100% mafia" You've got to realize that that looks weird, right? | ||
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He is saying it makes no sense for mafia to claim like that because it failed, therefore it was bad. As town it would / could have worked out according to him. That's his whole reasoning and he's not unterstanding that everyone is talking about the intention and not what ended up happening. | ||
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On September 06 2012 06:28 Ottoxlol wrote: I was not the only one joking in the first half an hour, grush, Hapa, Toad made jokes too. So about Toad, he was active a lot but failed to make a case on why is he voting Matt. You can see our conversation in our filters, This is why I ask the same question again and again to get scum answer too. You guys are blinded by scum talking bs in the thread. Wtf. How is that: On September 05 2012 00:45 Toadesstern wrote: yeah Matt really is someone who's really in your face both as a townie and a mafia. He's incredible aggressive and / or borderline insulting if people don't think the same way he does. As mafia he's telling people to shut up and that he doesn't need to explain his reads a bit because people are to retarded to understand it anyways when he knows he's right about something, e.g. when he's bussing a buddy, defending a townie to get towncred or geniunely meant something another way and people are misinterpreting what he said due to a type or something like that. As Town he does the same when he heavily think's he's right or when someone misunderstands him. His calm and almost not existing involvement here defenitly is not what matt does when somethings "wrong" according to him. That either means he acknowledges that he screwed up as a town or that he acknowledges that he screwed up as a mafia and doesn't think it's going to help anymore. As already mentioned I don't see a reason at all for a town to fakeclaim like this and combine that with him "giving up" and you're good to go. + On September 04 2012 23:21 Toadesstern wrote: a blue doctor, jailkeep, Tracker, Watcher or Vigi however has no reason to be afraid. Maybe a Mad Hatter would be hard to explain but I'd doubt someone would want to fakeclaim as miller like that as a Mad Hatter. Picture the situation you're in as a blue: We have trackers and Watchers. What happens is that at some time someone could say "Hey guys, Matt visited X at night Y". If he's a doctor, tracker or a watcher that's no problem at all because the target in question didn't die. We want to know who visited people who ended up being dead. If he's a doc there's actually a chance he ended up saving someone and that someone could even confirm that. If he is a tracker or a Watcher he is able to claim the results, something Mafia is not able to do. So a Doc, Tracker or a Watcher are all perfectly fine and there's no reason to fakeclaim like this. A Jailer can somewhat confirm himself as well as the target he visited ended up being roleblocked every single night. It's only "somewhat" because a mafia RB is possible as well but after all if he's a Jailer he's again only going to visit people who ended up surviving the night. A vig is somewhat tricky as it's an extremly easy fakeclaim for mafia to do but as long as you claim prior to the deadline everyone's going to be fine with that. A Mad Hatter is, like a vigi somewhat tricky but as everything else you visited people. That in itself is not a reason to be suspicious of someone and the Mad Hatter is most likely going to visit people who ended up surviving as well unless either the Hatter decides to go after townish looking people for whatever reason or mafia decides to go after bad looking townies for whatever reason. tl;dr: There's not a single scenario in which a fakeclaim as a blue makes sense. At least I can't think of one because you won't end up being tracked to a kill in pretty much all the cases. On top of that noone is going to be stupid enough to out someone who visited a guy who's still alive because that's basicly outing medics / tracker / watcher in most of the cases. However there are a bunch of good reasons to fakeclaim this as mafia if you forgot that millers / NN are usually not self-aware in 90% of the games and just did it because he recently played a game with self-aware millers. I think Bang-Bang mafia was one of those for example. So there's a shitton of explanations from a mafia point of view. The only possible explanation from a town point of view would probably be "reversed psychology" although you're making yourself a target doing so, which isn't what a blue wants to do either unless he's a Hatter d2 or later. + On September 05 2012 02:09 Toadesstern wrote: Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. not explaining why I'm voting Matt? Stop lying dude | ||
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On September 06 2012 06:35 Ottoxlol wrote: Toad is lying again, I explained it multiple times what I think yet he writes "He is saying it makes no sense for mafia to claim like that because it failed, therefore it was bad." No. I am saying it makes no sense for mafia to claim because it is bad. BC tried to tell me why, but when I answered he disappeared. Strange. Why do you keep talking about me when you are clearly not capable of understanding what I am writing? That's just another of your lies. Multiple people HAVE ALREADY EXPLAINED, with links to the game or at least telling you the name of the game that fakeclaiming miller/NN is a good strategy for mafia and it happened in the past, ending up wasting cycles for town because noone lynched the guy in question BECAUSE of the lynch. Just READ the game. | ||
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On September 06 2012 06:36 Ottoxlol wrote: You did not answered why is it more probable to do this as scum then as assa or blue. You are still dodging it. You write a lot of spam but contribute negative, try to stop the discussion. I'm not going to just let you get in here and completly lie about what happened and tell people trying to make it look like something happened that never happened when in fact you're still not willing to read the game lol. You're telling me that I should ignore you but you're going on about how I'm supposed to be a liar. That's the most hypocritical thing I've ever read. | ||
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On September 06 2012 06:48 Bill Murray wrote: telling scum to kill me and BC... priceless. BM could be Dr.H as well. Noone knows! | ||
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On September 06 2012 06:54 Bill Murray wrote: where this regards me (you put bc/bm/bm... what did you mean there?) I noticed this ... jeez my play as town is so bad. anyways, i have seen this as suspicious too. it is just another reason i've wanted to flip Doyouhas. I'm actually just waiting for Foru to get in here and see him rage about that part. I'd say he's top#2 or top#3 skillwise lol. | ||
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On September 06 2012 07:21 Z-BosoN wrote: @austin No he didn't... he still thinks Toad is scum and still insists that matt is not. he's saying something along the lines of: 1) Ottox thought he can defend Matt 2) Ottox realized that's not going to work 3) A buddy of his told him "dude you can't just back down like nothing happened. You've got to roll with it now" 4) That's the reason he's trolling like this. | ||
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Mafia will want to hit that. | ||
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if you're a medic you have my permission to hit me all night long | ||
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On September 06 2012 07:47 Z-BosoN wrote: Why on earth do you think mafia would want to hit you? 1) I'm a vet and like BM just said it himself: On September 06 2012 07:03 Bill Murray wrote: [...] Scum could easily just be playing the lurker game this game, but if that's the case, let 'em sit back while players like BC and Toad get confirmed. I don't agree with him calling me #2 guy in here (he doesn't but that's basicly what he's saying) but I'm quite decent imo. At the same time the other vets besides BC we've got are not that good looking at all. 2) Do you think anyone besides Ottox would possibly come up with some weird reasoning for me being mafia? I doubt it. Mafia has to shoot people like BC and me. | ||
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Having him pushed for a mislynch however is way worse than having him die because it wastes a complete cycle if he really flips green. So yeah, if you're a town-vig feel free to shoot him. I'm feeling somewhat uneasy about most of the vets. All of them have their minor issues except for BC right now. BM looks a little to opportunistic and I can't stop thinking that he's buddying me. Foru's posting a little to cautios for my taste Dr.H's posting feels just off. Can't really put my finger on it though. Like that post when he asked BC wether or not he understood why he didn't trust BC. That probably was the most odd post of the vets I've seen this game. However, those are all very minor things not worth a damn on their own and frankly I doubt that more than one of them is going to flip mafia. I guess you could call this a "don't treat them as town warning" although I don't want them to be shot. Just pay attention in case I'm dead by tomorrow. If either BC or I end up dead tonight something's wrong with our medics or we don't have medics lol. Watchers are, as already mentioned, also incredible good for us as we're unlikely to be visited by something like town trackers / vigs / mad hatters. So if someone visits us and we end up being roleblocked or shot that's Jackpot for the watcher. | ||
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EBWOP within spoiler + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2012 08:29 Toadesstern wrote: Btw I'd agree Ottox really has to die. Even if he's town he's probably the most anti-town player in here. He'll continue derailing the thread and he's either a mafia (in which case lynching / seeing him dead is a good thing, duh) or he's someone who will be pushed for a mislynch. Having him pushed for a mislynch however is way worse than having him die due to a vig because it wastes a complete cycle if he really flips green. So yeah, if you're a town-vig feel free to shoot him. I'm feeling somewhat uneasy about most of the vets. All of them have their minor issues except for BC right now. BM looks a little to opportunistic and I can't stop thinking that he's buddying me. Foru's posting a little to cautios for my taste Dr.H's posting feels just off. Can't really put my finger on it though. Like that post when he asked BC wether or not he understood why he didn't trust BC. That probably was the most odd post of the vets I've seen this game. However, those are all very minor things not worth a damn on their own and frankly I doubt that more than one of them is going to flip mafia. I guess you could call this a "don't treat them as town warning" although I don't want them to be shot. Just pay attention in case I'm dead by tomorrow. If either BC or I end up dead tonight something's wrong with our medics or we don't have medics lol. Watchers are, as already mentioned, also incredible good for us as we're unlikely to be visited by something like town trackers / vigs / mad hatters. So if someone visits us and we end up being roleblocked or shot that's Jackpot for the watcher. | ||
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On September 06 2012 08:37 Bill Murray wrote: "and mafia is " why did you feel the need to add that, toad? wtf? you also admit ottoxlol is town you've gone from town to leaning scum in my mind reaaaalllly fast if you need punctuation there, perhaps you should try EBWOP again. copy & paste. I hade it the other way around when I wanted to post it and changed it to the that clusterfuck with gosu c&p The original would have been something along the lines of "he either is town and mafia is going to push him for a mislynch and noone's ever going to analyze that as everyone's going to agree that he has to die, or he's a mafia and and has to die". That's why the "and mafia is" was in front there. Figured I needed to shorten it a little and made it the other way around because clearly people should be still smart enough to read that much out of it without me pointing their noses at it. | ||
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On September 06 2012 08:41 Bill Murray wrote: Regardless, Toad just majorly backtracked and EBWOPed because he called ottoxlol town and encouraged a vig... he's lying, and nervous about it, imo. I feel like he knows that ottoxlol would need a vig... toad has slipped up quite a bit, but i'm not 100% on him. no I did not backtrack. I said he's either mafia or he's town and in both cases he needs to die given the situation. | ||
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On September 06 2012 09:27 DoYouHas wrote: I've been thinking about Hopeless for a while now, but I was waiting for Matt's flip to put together the case (it wouldn't have held much water if he had flipped town). And yes, I am a slowish reader and it takes me hours to put together cases. I tailor them quite a bit. I understand you don't like me lurking. But at least address my case. ? | ||
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On September 05 2012 13:07 BroodKingEXE wrote: No, his response was belivable based on posts he made after his sloosh interaction. Ottox has replaced him due to the fact that he is pushing a "Matt is an assasin/townie scheme" instead of pushing his scum read toad. On September 05 2012 23:39 marvellosity wrote: Updated Vote Count: Mattchew (21): The great unwashed Toadesstern (2): BroodkingEXE, Ottoxlol Yet to vote: Lvdr, Mattchew, Shady Sands Important part of the quote in red. Nothing else changed. That's it for today for me | ||
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On September 06 2012 09:43 Z-BosoN wrote: So you are saying that even if he is somehow confirmed town, he still needs to die? yeah | ||
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About DYH: On September 06 2012 10:08 DoYouHas wrote: @BC and Toad - I disagree. If Matt wasn't red then Hopeless' actions no longer are an attempt to divert a bandwagon on scum. At least half my case is showing that he did exactly that. If Matt was green then Hopeless' case on Forumite becomes far more innocuous. [...] That wasn't actually the reason I made a "?". You're case results in Matt being bussed by Hopeless1der and you said your case would be way weaker without Matt flipping red. The important part is not wether or not you think he got bussed (clearly he got bussed). The important part is your order of thought.
That is a mafia approach to make cases. Hopeless1der bussing Matt is the conclusion you should get from making a case. It never is the reason to make a case. You saying that your case only holds true with matt's red flip shows that you did the case the wrong way. | ||
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On September 06 2012 11:11 DoYouHas wrote: Except this isn't my thought process behind the case. It looks much more like this
2. If Matt is scum then I think it is likely someone from his team tried to divert the wagon while they had the chance (before Palmars post) 3. I find the person I think fits that the best. Hopeless does, and has been suspicious to me before. 4. I find that Hopeless also fits the mold for a lurky scum. 5. I find that Hopeless' voteswitch is suspicious. 6. I come to the conclusion that Hopeless bussed Mattchew, but only after indirectly stop the lynch. I started from the assumption that Matt was scum, which is why I thought that it was essential to my case. (BC disagrees) I created a profile for what I was looking for with scum, and Hopeless fit the best. - What part of my case made you think that I started with "You think Hopeless1der bussed Matt"? The way I see it you could construe any case on anyone who makes connections to Matt's alignment and voted Matt in the end (pretty much everyone) to be starting from the assumption that PlayerAccused bussed Matt. I'm curious what makes you bring it up. the fact that you explicitly mention, that Matt needed to flip red for your case to make sense. | ||
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That being said I still (somewhat?) agree with the conclusion but I'll post shortly before deadline :p | ||
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Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post (+ Show Spoiler [click me!] + On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. People who are not vets but should be a topic Ottox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia.Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ... Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. | ||
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I'd also got a bunch of assumptions about the set-up now that we have seen not a single blue flip but the suicide bomber flipped. I guess not talking about that is best though. But all that makes me want to lynch Forumite even more and yeah I'd say he's the way to go for today considering that Ottox and Dr.H are dead. | ||
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On September 07 2012 07:48 Forumite wrote: =( Toades, what do you want most, an answer to the case on me posted during the night, or my top scumreads. It´s late and I´m too tired to do both right now. I don't consider the case on you to be good and I don't agree with it. I want to lynch you because of method or elimination. So I'd rather see you talk about targets for today. | ||
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On September 07 2012 07:37 grush57 wrote: Yea but it's better than just about any other townie. Better than say the vigi going crazy and shooting Toad or something. On September 07 2012 08:48 grush57 wrote: This is hard Town is REALLY active and good this game. Wouldn't mind lynching him either. first one: I agree, Ottox dead is good but I don't like the 2nd part. Why me? I'm your strongest townread? Or am I your most influential townread? The latter one would mean mafia agenda. second one: what did that post refer to? I'm not understanding what you're trying to say here and out of context saying "This is hard Town is REALLY active and good this game." sounds pretty contradictory. Like you're obviously happy that town is active and good this game (right?). If that's the case what's hard? Out of context it really sounds like you don't like town being active and good, neither does it sound like you're part of "town". So what's the meaning of that post? Anyways, see you tomorrow. | ||
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On September 07 2012 19:18 strongandbig wrote: So why should I in particular be scared of you in particular? Is it because I should be quivering in fear of your particularly stellar scumplay? Cause something about the ridiculous way you died last game makes you seem a lot less scary, as irrational as that is. Now, I'm not sure how you think I'm buddying you. Unless you mean the "we're the only ones in the thread" thing - I see game-related buddying like 'ooh your reads are right on yeah way to lead the town' as being a lot scummier than 'hey man sup in the thread at this european hour or whatever', but whatever. I was actually just going to ignore this whole thing because there's really not much for me to say about it ("you're buddying me! No I'm not! Yes you are!" doesn't really help anything), but it made me think a bit about you this game vs last game, and I wanted to ask something. This is from last game - this game, instead it's What changed? And don't say your alignment, from how highly you talk of your own scum play I know you wouldn't be doing something as simple as coming down on different sides of a policy question as scum vs town. Now in terms of your process of elimination thing - the obvious biggest problem with that is that it assumes you're town. You've done this before, like when we were playing in mtg mafia. You even actually came right out when the last vet was dead other than you and said "but why would I say that as scum, it's setting myself up to be lynched later." That argument worked that time, but it also taught me to watch you when you start talking about vet balance. That said, I think forumite is looking scummier than you are atm. I still really don't like his "don't use meta on vets" comment, and I don't think that's been addressed since I brought it up last time Yeah I think the same person is looking bad as you do even though you just accused me of buddying you, deal with it. Quite in a hurry so I'll answer really quick: You played the magic game as well didn't you? And yeah I still think I played good in PTP although that game is still ongoing. So yeah I just really thought you're going to play a little more like WBG did in PTP. Not much has changed. We had Matt claim mafia d1. Do you want me to get in the thread yelling "HERPA DERP BUT I WANT TO LYNCH A VET INSTEAD"? We had the perfect lynch d1. He also might be a vet depending on who's judging so I don't see the problem. Probably within the top8 skillwise or something like that this game. So on top of the slip he actually fit perfectly. And don't give me the "what? he slipped like a newbie, how is he good?" bullshit if someone is going to talk about this :p About the "I don't like the cases on foru / vets so far". I said I don't like the cases and the very first thing I said this cycle was that I'd like to lynch Foru. I don't like the cases on Foru because I think they're done poorly, not because I think we should lynch someone else. Pretty sure I said something along the lines of "I dislike the cases on Foru although I agree with the conclusion". So again I don't really see the problem. | ||
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On September 08 2012 01:31 slOosh wrote: Psh, what's most damning about Maverick is the fact that he has scum reads Forumite and DYH, and agrees with the case on BKEXE and yet for some reason waffles and ends up wanting to lynch a lurker. Good followup lynch. exactly this. If I were a multi-shot dayvig there would have been a crazy amount of dead people by now because we've got a shitton of people posting stuff like what you just mentioned. We've got a complete luxury problem today as we have way too many good lynches we could go for and too many people posting cases about everyone and their dog. The issue we have today is not wether or not we got a good lynch today, the issue we've got is which one's the best out of all those weird guys posting like "well maybe we should just lynch a random lurker today instead" because clearly not everyone can end up being mafia. | ||
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On September 08 2012 02:13 Maverick32x wrote: I honestly have no problem voting BKE. I thought I was clear with reason I voted for Shiao... I wanted him to post... And look!! He's had more posts after be called out than all game! Also yes- I'm considering more than one person as scummy or pointing out odd behaviors... that's really not the issue here. If someone who I know to be decent would have posted On September 07 2012 13:12 Maverick32x wrote: @DoYouHas- Solid defense, and you're right- I was probably tunneling too hard on filters. I still think the reliance on 'Meta' is not a reliable way to contribute to THIS game... @Forumite- I guess we have different perspectives when it comes to scum hunting? The majority of players are town.. so wouldn't it be smarter to do some 'innocent until proven guilty'? As opposed to just blasting everyone because everyone else is doing it? All this being said- I'm wondering if we should just lynch a lurker? I feel like allowing scum to lurk is a bad plan? after saying that we've got a bunch of decent targets that'd be an insta-lynch for me. For some reason we've got crazy amounts of people posting like this in this game though, which makes it hard to figure out who's posting weird because he's mafia and who's posting weird because he's new. | ||
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But I had almost no time today as friends came over so I'll have to reread things tomorrow. Haven't even read what happened the last 4 hours so far except for an incredible fast read. | ||
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On September 08 2012 07:17 Z-BosoN wrote: I'm going to leave the BKE thing on hold for now, until we hear what he has to say. If he says nothing and doesn't bother scumhunting and gracing us with his thoughts on the game, then my vote will be on him 100%. Meanwhile, I've done reading the post by Toad, and also took the time to read his filter from LI and what was the "best bus in TL history" he mentioned. Your post had a ton of stuff to read, and I have some issues and some doubts regarding it. Let's do this. First off, you post this: Can I ask, what conclusion do you agree with? Because the conclusion on the case against forumite is this: But that doesn't make sense with your "I don't like the case on forumite". Please do explain what conclusion you meant. Now, onward to your (seemingly classic) motherfuckin wall of text. Ok, so I've referenced the writings in red so you have an easier time answering. The quantity of asterisks in each number indicate how much I would like an answer from you. Btw, you sure have a high opinion of yourself. Also, I forgot to reference this, but since I do not want to change the whole numbering now, also, please answer this: 5.5*) Why should S&B be scared shitless of you? About the conclusion: I agree / agreed with the conclusion that Foru is mafia. Not sure what to make of him considering the most recent BKE posts though. 1 +2 ) Yeah. It was a "trap" if you want. I wanted to see whether they went for the easy way and just attack me with the usual "but toad is unreadable"-fear mongering or if they did not. Yeah I'd consider fear mongering a mafia trait when talking about vets, so yes I would have definitely attacked someone like Foru if he had done that. 3) I never said I don't want to target vets (I think?). I obviously didn't mess around with talking about something like that d1 because we had a confirmed mafia. What point would there be in lynching someone else. I considered the case on him weak because I didn't think what was mentioned (some specific points in the case, not everything but a bunch) was alignment indicating considering who we were talking about. I didn't get into detail with what I disagree about the case because I obviously want Foru to talk about it. Why would I want to defend him if I think he's mafia (for different reasons)? After all that's more chances for him to show poor performance, no matter if the case in question was decent or not to begin with. 4) Again, I'm okay with targeting vets I just haven't found anything that screams mafia at me when going through forus filter, yet I've got the feeling he is + I've got the feeling the rest of the vets are looking way better. Combine those two and I'm feeling quite good about lynching him in general. It's a question of who looks the worst and explaining why we should lynch foru is just hard to do right now. When we've got other people who I'd consider to be about equally scummy right now that's just not worth the fuss. Especially if my "feeling" on foru is so vague it's really going to be a pain in the ass to explain why I want him dead right now. 5) I'd say / I thought one of them will end up being mafia, yeah. But the most recent BKE talk is making me a little uncertain here. It's something with a lot of different things taking into consideration like meta, balance and whatever else so if people like BKE / S&B, who are good as well, are considered vets I might have to scratch that though. Given that I don't think very highly of those 2 right now I'm still trying to figure out what's the best target for today and wether or not that assumption from yesterday was correct or if I should forget it for the time being and just stick to "traditional" targets, aka the one we've got cases on. 5.5) I thought he's feeling quite alright about me before he did his most recent post, which I considered to be odd because he saw my most recent games as mafia. In PTP3 I played quite decently as mafia, he was in that game as well. In Magic I totally destroyed town on my own manipulating town. Same thing happened in the infamous Annul-game. I get that people who haven't played with me a lot don't know these things but like other vets he should know himself that I'm pretty decent as mafia. Basicly I expected him to go in this game with a bias (at least a little one) thinking I'm mafia no matter what given what the most recent games happened. I just didn't see that happening. 6) Yes as mentioned, it's quite a luxury problem we've got today: We've got a lot of good lynches. There's bound to be townies within those possible lynches and it's about who truely is the best for today. 7) Well not particually hard if you're in a 30 player game and you end up calling 100% of the vets mafia + 10 random other people. Surely you've got to be right about some :p | ||
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On September 08 2012 07:37 Hapahauli wrote: @ Z-Boson - it's funny you bring Toadsstern up, because if it wasn't for the BKE slip I found, I probably would have made a case on Toad instead. That "goodbye" post looked so scummy to me, and I find things like this to be huge scumtells: 1) Toad had been screaming that he's "town" throughout the day. This is pretty excessive considering there's very little reasoning why he should be considered town at all. 2) Toad says he's town, then gives a bunch of reads without any reasoning. Like read his goodbye post, then read the quoted selection. He never gives any reasoning for his reads. 3) If toad thinks he's going to get shot, why is he claiming town??? This is the most absurd thing ever. Anywho, I have a scumread on toad, but I want BKE lynched first Good stuff Z-Boson wat? Number 1 was already explained and I said I did that on purpose. Number 2 was already explained in the post itself as I said it's already quite a wall of text and I don't want to spam up the thread even more. I don't feel like posting way more cases right now either for that reason. We've got a bunch of cases and there's no need to spam more right now. Number 3 is supposed to mean what? I claimed town, so what? Think mafia is going to shoot me because they now know I'm town, which they knew before I "claimed" as well? It's not like I claimed a role. Claiming town makes no difference about whether or not I'm going to get shot. It's not like they're going to say to themselves "crap, that dude just claimed town, we've got to deal with him NOW". | ||
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On September 08 2012 08:20 strongandbig wrote: lol i was worried toaaaaad why do you say grush is mafia? ps this is a serious question. grush is like by far the easiest rando free scumread to throw around. He's playing to serious to be town. When he's kidding around he's trying to look ballsy for the sake of looking ballsy rather than just looking weird like he does when he's town. For example the "just lynch me" post. Doesn't look like something I'm not yet allowed to talk about I guess | ||
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On September 08 2012 08:34 Hapahauli wrote: 1: You said you did it on purpose, and it had already served its purpose. There was no reason for you to continue doing it after alerting the thread to your "ploy." However, this ties more in to my response in #3 2: The last thing you should be concerned about when making a "goodbye I'm going to get shot" post is spamming up the thread, especially when you believe you have critical information that could help the town. WTF is the point of pointing out your reads to other players in a goodbye post if you're not going to provide your rationale? 3: It's more of a scumtell that marvellosity described to me a while back. When someone's trying to tell you they're town and tell you a bunch of other people are suspicious/scummy/whatever (without reasoning to boot), they're likely mafia. But claiming town literally makes no sense in the context of the post. It's a goodbye post. There's no reason to claim town in a goodbye post. If you think you're going to get shot, why the fuck would you claim town? It's pretty goddamn self-evident. 1) Did I do it afterwards? I don't think I did o.O 2) As already mentioned it's was a combination of multiple reads and thoughts about meta that brought me to the conclusion. That kind of stuff is literally impossible to explain to other people. Either people agree with it or they don't, I even said I've got nothing special that screams mafia for a vet yet but the combination of a lot of little things make be think the way I do. 3) Well that's just wrong for 2 reasons:
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From PTP3: vs this game: On September 04 2012 08:22 grush57 wrote: He's probably just pressuring him. Plus BM has a reputation. Bunch of serious, yet easy to do posts: + Show Spoiler [click me] + On September 04 2012 08:26 grush57 wrote: NONONOONONO As town ALWAYS tell town if you got hit/roleblocked unless some weird setup or something. On September 04 2012 09:27 grush57 wrote: Town needs all the information possible. Mafia will already know this information.If it was a blue vigi shot then the blue willl already know and they won't have to tell town without outing themselves. Mafia will know if there were vigi shots because they killed the other people. As if town-grush would ever say something like that. He's trying to look good saying something like that. Town-grush wouldn't even care about something like this. On September 05 2012 05:12 grush57 wrote: Well, looks like Mattchew slipped and all the noobs on his team are now scrambling. So.... ##Vote: Mattchew Miltonkram after this lynch?(Assuming that Mattchew flips scum which he will) Already setting up the next lynch without giving an explanation at all? On September 05 2012 05:16 grush57 wrote: And all of you new players as town you gotta make stances, lists of reads do jack shit. A lot of you are sounding scummy and probably just because you're new, but actually town. nothing, easy to do. Neither does he do that himself nor would town grush care for something like that On September 07 2012 09:31 grush57 wrote: So we're in good shape right now. I'll look through some people's filter tomorrow. as if lol Buddy-Buddy posts: + Show Spoiler [clicky me] + On September 06 2012 09:55 grush57 wrote: Damn BC you're on a roll, though that slip isn't 100% confirmed mafia but adding that with the other bs he said definitely scum. On September 07 2012 07:37 grush57 wrote: Yea but it's better than just about any other townie. Better than say the vigi going crazy and shooting Toad or something. Last but not least those 2 posts that don't really fit a special topic: On September 08 2012 07:12 grush57 wrote: Kill me it will help the town I promise :D If someone tells me to lynch him the best thing to do usually is to lynch him. It's either trying to be manipulative and trying to appeal for emotions (in which case he's mafia) or he's given the game up (in which case he can be both) or he doesn't care about the game and is going to be anti-town no matter of alignment. I highly lean on the first one though. On September 07 2012 08:48 grush57 wrote: This is hard Town is REALLY active and good this game. Yeah I asked him about that and he answered but I can't stop but get the feeling that was supposed to be a post for a mafia QT lol. tl;dr So yeah I feel quite strongly about grush. He's hard to judge because he really doesn't seem to care about games and play anti-town no matter of alignment but that guy got to die. | ||
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the semi seriousness is something that might be worth more considering meta but even on itself it's worth a lot because he's trying to look good for some reason. He's trying to look helpful when pointing stuff out like Town needs all the information possible. Town-Grush doesn't care about whether or not he's looking good. Mafia will already know this information.If it was a blue vigi shot then the blue willl already know and they won't have to tell town without outing themselves. Mafia will know if there were vigi shots because they killed the other people. The first 2 quotes (PTP3 vs something this game) is a complete contradiction. The bottom 2 quotes are looking as bad as it can possibly get and I would instalynch anyone saying something like that if it wasn't Grush. However, given the rest of his filter I'd say taking it into consideration isn't bad. | ||
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On September 08 2012 10:18 Forumite wrote: @Toades After the D2-post you said you didn´t like the case on me provided by Hapless and Hapa, but you still thought I was probably scum. The only reason I remember was elimination, out of the people you stated are vets they are either dead or me, and those who died flipped town. Is that your case, "There should be scum among the vets, and now that some flipped town, the living ones are probably scum"? Because it´s a very convenient thing to say for scum, if people say there must be scum in a group, then scum kill half the group if it´s full of town, and leave it alone if there´s a scum in it so their buddy can hide better. I´m not saying that´s what happened, but it´s shaky to claim this early in a game that the last survivor of a group of must be scum event though the others flipped town. Apart from that you said you thought I wasn´t as aggressive as usual. Partly that is because I don´t keep myself as updated as I usually do due to more stuff happening IRL than usual, but I also don´t want to make the mistake I did in DF-Mafia. Anyway you need more reasons to you call me scum. What is it? I said the main aspect I'm getting from you out of this game is you playing cautious, right? Just take that post of yours for example: Because it´s a very convenient thing to say for scum, if people say there must be scum in a group, then scum kill half the group if it´s full of town, and leave it alone if there´s a scum in it so their buddy can hide better. I´m not saying that´s what happened, but it´s shaky to claim this early in a game that the last survivor of a group of must be scum event though the others flipped town. | ||
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On September 08 2012 16:06 Shady Sands wrote: Shouldn't you have also gotten back Blackmamba as well? Or was Black not concurrently killed by the suicide bomber? He's saying: Blackmamba got targeted by the Suicider BC got shot by GK only If DrH had visited BC and got killed by the suicider as well he himself would have died as well for visiting BC. Therefore that's not an option. So we've got 3 problems with that claim imo:
Something's fishy here. ##vote BKE Only got like 3 more hours time right now. I'm going to have friends at my place again and it's possible I'm going to miss the deadline so if there's something important tell me NOW. | ||
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On September 08 2012 23:14 Toadesstern wrote: He's saying: BC got targeted by the Suicider Blackmamba got shot by GK only If DrH had visited BC and got killed by the suicider as well he himself would have died as well for visiting BC. Therefore that's not an option. So we've got 3 problems with that claim imo:
Something's fishy here. ##vote BKE Only got like 3 more hours time right now. I'm going to have friends at my place again and it's possible I'm going to miss the deadline so if there's something important tell me NOW. EBWOP mixed the names up, sry | ||
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BM can't be the target of the suicide bomber because if that'd be the case BKE would be dead by now as well, if his claim is legit. Therefore BC was targeted by the suicide bomber according to BKE and BM got shot by a single mafia hit, which is incredible weird. | ||
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On September 08 2012 23:37 Shady Sands wrote: I thought Watcher wasn't affected by suicide bomber? Anyhow, if your interpretation of the rules is true, that just makes BKE's claim even less likely to be true. Why should a watcher not be affected by the suicide bomber? OP You are Crazy. Blow shit up man, that's what you do. You one night in the game suicide into another player. That player will die, regardless of protection, and everyone who visits that player that night will be killed unless protected. You can in addition perform one KP on behalf of the mafia every night, including the night you suicide. everyone who visits that player reads to me as everyone. Or was there something I'm missing? | ||
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On September 08 2012 23:41 austinmcc wrote: This. GK as suicide bomber could still deliver a kill. And if you're scum and you lose mattchew D1, you're suiciding GK N1, you're 100% gonna use him as a shooter because he can't get caught delivering a kill, he's gonna be dead. We're basically narrowed down to BM24 being double stacked and BKE lying OR BM24 single shot, BKE watcher, and a medic save. Unless mafia shot Ottoxlol, which seems...unlikely. I'm pretty sure Grush wasn't the only one doing that. Toad did it at one point (or multiple points), everyone and their mother discussed vigi shots on half the town. Morning laziness means I'm not finding those quotes for you, but I'm almost certain there were a decent number of similar posts, but less concise. If a medic had saved someone (scenario would be: BC got suicide bombed, BM got shot with 1KP, someone else got shot and protected for 1KP) we would have had some guy claiming the hit though, wouldn't we? Any yes you're correct, I said something along those lines as well. I said I want medics on BC+myself. | ||
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On September 08 2012 23:49 austinmcc wrote: I hope not. No offense to BKE, but if the medic claims then it's a bad deal. Medic backs up BKE's claim; we don't mislynch BKE. We get an almost confirmed town in the medic's target, scum gets a medic and a watcher identified. We could still mislynch today even after all that. It's a bad trade. If we had a medic save, from a medic who possibly got an intelligent protect N1 and might get some more, guy should stay quiet. Scum comes out ahead in that trade, because they get lots of blue info whereas town just goes from a definite mislynch to a maybe mislynch with the next target. Not the medic is supposed to claim. The guy who got hit should claim being hit, if there is someone like that to begin with. That doesn't reveal the medic. It gives an almost confirmed townie for the medics point of view and a decent town read for everyone else judging the guy. There's no reason not to claim being hit as a townie, therefore I'd say there was noone being hit and we've got another screw up lol. | ||
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However, I still consider it weird that BM24 was suicide bombed and not BC according to BKE. | ||
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On September 09 2012 00:11 Shady Sands wrote: Agreed. That claim does not make BKE look any less scummy imo. What do you think about GRush? On September 08 2012 06:52 Toadesstern wrote: grush is mafia. BKE's probably; if BKE's not mafia it's probably foru? But I had almost no time today as friends came over so I'll have to reread things tomorrow. Haven't even read what happened the last 4 hours so far except for an incredible fast read. hasn't changed that much. | ||
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On September 09 2012 00:26 austinmcc wrote: Right. Either he's a watcher OR he chose a fakeclaim so bad it could be disproven pretty much by flips alone. And it wasn't a pressure claim, he was getting called out all yesterday, then claimed while nobody was doing anything. I'm currently believing the claim since it seems like a giant risk to take when you're already down 2. Heck, why go with a terrible fake claim when you could name anything? BM, where you at? We discussed scum having/not having some sort of leader earlier. I'd like to hear your updated thoughts. Ottoxlol flipped town, so it's not a case where mattchew/ottox/gravan all messed up and looked scummy D1. 2 vets died, so they're not options as some sort of mafia general, commanding the troops. Now we've got this BKE claim. Do you believe that claim? Are there players you could see saying, "hey you, go make a terrible fakeclaim that's so bad people will have trouble thinking it's from scum"? I don't see BKE, if scum, going that route, because you don't really gain anything compared to a better fake claim. Well he kind of is about to be lynched. Sure it's a risk if you're already down by 2 but what other options do you have? Not claim and getting lynched without saying a word surely isn't going to improve the situation for his team either if he's mafia. I just really don't buy the "BM24 was the guy being suicide bombed" thing at all. And on the I don't see him going for this claim instead of a better one as mafia: There really isn't a lot. Tracker and Watcher are almost impossible to claim unless you do it the way he did it. If we let him survive to prove his claim he can just call being rb-ed all game long (you don't get notifications but the RB still happens so you probably get SOMETHING back like "no result") Vig is the easiest fakeclaim ever for mafia, mad hatter is pretty much impossible to prove as well. Claiming Medic and Jailer sucks for obvious reasons. There really isn't a good alternative for mafia in this game. oh and I haven't actually voted yet so ##vote: BKE | ||
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It just really doesn't make sense right now. The only thing I dislike about BKE's claim is that he claims BM24 was suicide bombed and not BC because I consider BC more likely to be the target, but BM24 being the target isn't out of the ordinary that much. On top of that with Palmars statement it really could be he's telling the truth and if something like: Suicide vs BM24 1KP vs BC 1KP vs other vet (myself, maybe Foru or whoever else) or someone being really active (not going to call names here for obvious reasons) who got protected isn't that unlikely at all. The thing about late switches is they almost always turn out bad because they're not thought through and mafia has an easy time to manipulate. I'm pretty sure that either Shady or Grush is mafia right now and I could see both flipping red (though not both), so we could go for either of those two but as mentioned, those things really go wrong all the time... | ||
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On September 09 2012 01:13 DarthPunk wrote: Wait. There is more. When I just posted in the Voting thread it seems as If he has unvoted BKE and moved to Shady despite posting that BKE was the best candidate. The reasoning? This kid is suspicious as hell. BKE. Please read my case on grush and give me your thoughts. I am delaying bed for a bit because I think lynching a blue claim is a huge mistake and would like to find and consolidate another candidate. exactly. That vote grush did is incredible bad. It's meaningless at this point of time, especially given his explanation. On top of that it's not committing at all. What kind of townie would go around throwing his vote away like that? | ||
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On September 09 2012 01:21 DarthPunk wrote: It Is also bad to potentially mislynch a watcher. I would rather mislynch a VT then a Watcher. If that is the worst consequence from mafia manipulation. So be it. Of course it's bad to lynch a watcher but we can't consider that a reason to not lynch him and have to take both lynching a VT and a Watcher as equally bad. If we don't we're giving mafia the easiest time ever to just get in here "LOL I'm a mad hatter" and everyone insta unvotes because of something that can't be proven at all. That being said I still dislike the BKE lynch right now and would prefere a grush lynch. | ||
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On September 09 2012 01:32 DarthPunk wrote: Hmm I hadn't thought of that. In my last game The scummiest player claimed vig after a vig shot. He was so scummy no one believed him and he was lynched, In the obs QT Marv said that lynching blue claims was something newbies loved to do. I understand your point about all scum making easy claims. But this wagon smells. Grush smells. I skimmed through the thread and alarm bells started blaring in my head. well yeah I agree. I really don't like the situation we're in right now. Lynching BKE sounds really stupid right now and I don't like Grush's attitude at all. I'm going to vote for Grush. I've still got about an hour left before I have to go so let's see what we can do and whether or not it's possible. ##vote Grush | ||
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On September 09 2012 01:36 Shady Sands wrote: Alright, let's get this wagon going. ##Vote Grush god why are you calling it a wagon. You're giving me the worst paranoia ever right now | ||
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No way someone would force himself into reading THAT. About the watcher question: I'd say we probably got multiple watchers. Something like 2 sounds reasonable, maybe just 1, maybe even 3. That of course depends on the the other blue roles out there but normal DT's are not in the set-up, watcher and trackers are weaker than DT or at least harder to play and there's got to be some information roles in the game. Of course it could be that we've got like 6 trackers and not a single watcher but that'd be out of the ordinary. So sadly not much we can get from that point of view imo. | ||
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On September 09 2012 02:14 austinmcc wrote: How does this make you feel about Z-boson? Insert you really think someone would do that meme. not sure. I lie as town all the time about stuff like that because I feel like I should read something when someone gives me a link to an old game or mentions it, so I say I'll read it, hoping that I'll do it but in the end will never end up doing it because I'm way too lazy. Not to mention that if I'd do that with everyone (reading old stuff) in the game I'd be doing nothing but reading old games. So I usually end up lying about stuff like that because I feel like I should do it although I know it's bad to lie like that. Haven't played with him so no idea if he does that as well but I don't really take it as mafiatreat. Maybe he just overlooked the game really, really fast without actually reading into detail in which case I could see him saying what he said. | ||
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On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote: I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1. I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense. I thought the same thing but than again, what's the point of claiming he watched BM24? If he's mafia he could as well just swapped it and made it the other way around. He could have easily said "sup dudes, watched BM24 yesterday and BC got suicide bombed" as frankly most people expected it that way. What I'm taking from this is that he's telling the truth about who got suicide bombed either way. If he's mafia he said that because he didn't even think about it the other way around and just claimed what really happened + a fake for himself. No need to lie about who got hit / suicide bombed. If anything that's just more chances to screw up somehow if someone tracked him or watched something else. If he's town he said that because it really happened that way. | ||
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On September 09 2012 02:44 Toadesstern wrote: I thought the same thing but than again, what's the point of claiming he watched BM24? If he's mafia he could as well just swapped it and made it the other way around. He could have easily said "sup dudes, watched BM24 yesterday and BC got suicide bombed" as frankly most people expected it that way. What I'm taking from this is that he's telling the truth about who got suicide bombed either way. If he's mafia he said that because he didn't even think about it the other way around and just claimed what really happened + a fake for himself. No need to lie about who got hit / suicide bombed. If anything that's just more chances to screw up somehow if someone tracked him or watched something else. If he's town he said that because it really happened that way. Oh it could also be that he's an assassin if there are some in the game but if that's the case we shouldn't lynch him and just outsource the problem. If he's an assassin just screw him and let the other Assassin deal with him. No need to waste a lynch on that. I could actually see that happening seeing the weird nature of this claim but there's no point in talking about that because as mentioned, if that's the case he'll die himself just fine lol. | ||
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BKE is still a good lynch due to everything besides the claim, it's just that I'd say a grush lynch is better because he's equally scummy without the off-chance of hitting a blue, but a grush lynch is not not going to happen. | ||
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Why should I be scared? The assumption that mafia was looking d1 and therefore suicided GK is complete bullshit. They suicided because they wanted to kill blues, not because they thought they could afford it. That's the worst reasoning ever. Even if they thought they could afford it they wouldn't just do it until they think it's worth it so what you've got is an action that made sense from a scumpoint of view no matter of "standing". If they considered it a -EV move they wouldn't have done it no matter how good or bad in a spot they thought they are. If they considered it a +EV move they would have done it no matter how good or bad in a spot they thought they are. They apparently thought they're going to get a bunch of blues when bombing into BM24. Everything else would be playing against their wincon as they'd be giving away "charity" lol | ||
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On September 09 2012 09:43 Z-BosoN wrote: Well, it was because they wanted to kill blues AND because they thought they could afford it. If they thought they couldn't afford it, they would probably suicide GK later in the game. It could also be that they felt forced to suicide him because he was posting ultra-scummy, and he would have been a nice delicious lynch choice for day 2. You should be scared just like you were scared in night 1, remember your-good-bye-they-are-going-to-kill-me post? Especially now, with two vets gone. What is a +-EV move? There's no difference in when you use the suicide-bomber except for the fact that it is better the earlier you use it because with a lot of people alive it's more likely to kill multiple people. The KP is stable, it's no difference whether they lose him n1 or n2 or n3 except for the fact that doing it later might actually risk not being able to use his ability because he might be lynched (although quite unlikely at that point of time). There's not a single reason to use that role late except if you don't want to use it at all because you're going to lose that one guy no matter what. The night has just started I'm not going to post something about my reads right now lol. a +EV move is something from poker, something that gives you more advantages than drawbacks, while -EV is the opposite. For example if you have to pay 1$ to role a dice (6 sides) and get 10$ if you role a 6 but don't get something when rolling 1 to 5 that's +EV because you'll end up making money by doing that. If you have to pay 1$ but only get 5$ it's -EV because you lose money. Same thing goes for mafia. If they thought they could bomb away multiple people they thought it has more advantages than drawbacks. Like if they thought they'd kill BM24 + 2 blues in exchange for 1 mafia memeber that might be worth the trade no matter of position, or if they considered it likely to get BM24 + 3 blues, go figure. If they think it's worth the trade they'll do it no matter what position they're in because it always improves you position, no matter if you've got 5$ in your pocket or 100$, doing the 1$ to win 10$ thing always makes sense. If they think it's not worth the trade they wouldn't ever do it because no matter if you've got 5$ in your pocket or 100$, doing the 1$ to win 5$ will always but you at a worse position in the long run. So what we get from that is that mafia thought bombing BM24 will kill a bunch of blues. Nothing else because if it's -EV they wouldn't have done it no matter what, if they thought it's +EV they would have done it no matter what. | ||
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If we don't have a single tracker we could easily have 3 watchers. If we have like two Trackers there might just be 1 or 2 watchers in this game. If we've got a shitton of medics / jailers we're not going to have more than 1 watcher. As noone has an idea about what roles there are in this game (total numbers) there's no way to figure out how likely there's just going to be 1 watcher or more than 1 watcher. Usually watchers are quite rare but this game has no DTs at all, so Tracker + Watchers are the only information role and are going to be more frequently in this game than in usual games. Both Tracker and watcher are weaker than a true DT so it's quite likely that we've got more combined tracker+watcher than we would have had DTs if this was a DT set-up but again, the set-up has to make sense as a whole. I don't know how Palmar usually balances his games vet-wise and if he does at all. I know Kita doesn't for example but I'd say the majority of hosts does it in SOME way, so yes I naturally like the "one of the vets got to be mafia" approach, which is the reason I mentioned foru. If someone knows about Palmars hosting habbits and he really is someone who doesn't care about vet-balance (honestly from how he's posting I'd doubt he's balancing vet-wise, he likes games without vets) we might have to scratch that idea. | ||
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Also make sure to read the obs-QT and especially Syllos opinion on forumite (click me!) I know I don't usually ask people to read older games because it's a pain in the ass but this one is important. When you're done reading I want you to think about forumite. There's 4 major things that come to my mind when thinking about forumite:
It's the very same thing we had in WoF. Town-Forumite is useful, good and will do STUFF. Can you think of one important post forumite has done this game? Just one that instantly pops into your mind? I can't without having his filter opened because there's really not much that sticks out. His most important post probably was this: + Show Spoiler [click me] + On September 09 2012 06:32 Forumite wrote: Kreb (Miltonkram) (0) BroodKingEXE (16) Hapahauli slOosh imallinson Hopeless1der ShiaoPi Rewok DoYouHas Maverick32x Forumite Gravan strongandbig grush57 Toadesstern Shady Sands Z-BosoN Kreb (Miltonkram) DoYouHas (1) Bill Murray ShiaoPi (0) Maverick32x (0) Shady Sands (0) grush57 (1) DarthPunk Z-BosoN (2) austinmcc BroodKingEXE Not yet voted! (1) Lvdr (mkfuba07) LOL About his cautiousness: I already quoted this but just as an example for this, you'll find multiple posts like the following in his filter: On September 08 2012 10:18 Forumite wrote: @Toades After the D2-post you said you didn´t like the case on me provided by Hapless and Hapa, but you still thought I was probably scum. The only reason I remember was elimination, out of the people you stated are vets they are either dead or me, and those who died flipped town. Is that your case, "There should be scum among the vets, and now that some flipped town, the living ones are probably scum"? Because it´s a very convenient thing to say for scum, if people say there must be scum in a group, then scum kill half the group if it´s full of town, and leave it alone if there´s a scum in it so their buddy can hide better. I´m not saying that´s what happened, but it´s shaky to claim this early in a game that the last survivor of a group of must be scum event though the others flipped town. Apart from that you said you thought I wasn´t as aggressive as usual. Partly that is because I don´t keep myself as updated as I usually do due to more stuff happening IRL than usual, but I also don´t want to make the mistake I did in DF-Mafia. Anyway you need more reasons to you call me scum. What is it? You'll find stuff like that all over his filter. He's always making sure to have a possible retreat when posting and not committing in the slightest. He only really posts when he has to: On September 07 2012 07:48 Forumite wrote: =( Toades, what do you want most, an answer to the case on me posted during the night, or my top scumreads. It´s late and I´m too tired to do both right now. On September 07 2012 08:17 Forumite wrote: I have two scumreads right now. I had Ottox down as scum, I was wrong but it shouldn´t affect the other reads. They are both based on the time around Matts claim. The first one is Maverick for his first post in the game, it was a reaction to Matts claim and the situation around it, and he was basically trying to divert attention to everyone else, without committing to anything. The second one is Hapa for his posts during the same time. The post below sums it up well. When I read this post at first, I see Hapa buddying up with Matt and throwing suspicion on those attacking him. It didn´t feel right, Matt claiming didn´t arouse any suspicion in him. He said hi to Matt and then chided those attacking him. That´s the ones that jumped out at me when reading the thread. Yes, I should reread all the spam from yesterday, I´ll see about that tomorrow. tl;dr: Hapahauli Maverick32x That's something we rarely see when looking through foru's filter: He's talking about his read after being pressured by me and giving some minor insight on what he thinks is happening. However, why is that only happening after I call him out as mafia? I tell people he's mafia, he instantly gets in the thread and posts something like that when all the time people weren't talking about him he did nothing like that. That my dear friends is scummy as shit As mentioned I don't think he's interested in what's happening. I can't remember a significant post foru did because there was none. He isn't even trying to help. No "shut up guys, here's what's going on: XXXX, Therefore we lynch Y". No pushing his reads to make sure the best possible lynch ends up happening. He's just completly standing by, posting some minor things if he has to but nothing else. Town-Foru would be interested in what's going on. Town-Foru would be pushing his reads. Town-Foru would be actively trying to help town and not just stand by. It's just the same thing as WoF. He was mafia in that game and did apeshit. For some reason he never ended up being lynched although Sandroba and I called him mafia straight from d1 and sadly nothing happened. Let me assure you, Foru would be doing SOMETHING to help if he was town. He isn't. Forumite is mafia Also vote me for mayor | ||
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On September 10 2012 02:54 austinmcc wrote: can you give a # for syllo's post on Forumite in obs? #232 and #233 No when he is town he is actually useful He's just not useful at all. He's doing apeshit this game sliding by, sometimes agreeing with people, sometimes voting but he isn't doing something himself. He's one of the top #3 vets this game had when we started (I'm not within the top #3!). He should be out here trying to guide town, trying to stop people bullshit, trying to focus town to something he consideres to be a good lynch, he should be trying to take the lead, especially now that BC and Dr.H are dead, especially as I said I'm not going to have much time yesterday and two days ago and said that I'll be away, not making it in time for the deadline. | ||
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On September 10 2012 03:04 austinmcc wrote: EBWOP: Is there more than "when he is town he is actually useful"? Or is that what you're pointing to? yeah there's more but I just realized that was mostly in irc 8( | ||
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On September 10 2012 03:52 austinmcc wrote: Making notes but will put them in thread so you can see my thought process: Reading WoF scum QT : + Show Spoiler + Forumite not a scum leader, but seems to be thinking about whether his actions look town or scummy. Choosing targets to go after based on who his town self would go after. Some of not being the scum leader could be the fact that he's scum with Ace, who he and VE probably deferring to. Based off that, I don't expect to be able to look at who Forumite is pushing and say "scummy target," but perhaps the logic will be slightly different/lacking. Unsure whether to expect Forumite to be pushing scum's agenda or not. Reading WoF itself : + Show Spoiler +
Reading current game : + Show Spoiler +
Thoughts on Toad's case Agree that Forumite has not been involved. Gone most of BKE lynch, no comments on Grush apart from one "he's trolling with that awesome sesame street song and I want to lynch him" bit. No comment on Z-BosoN. However, at points he has commented on random extra stuff - last night's argument and saying he thought it was silly and everyone was town. Your cautiousness section is weaksauce. You posted a very mushy "Forumite is the vet I feel least confident" post/case-ish-thing, then noted that you disliked the cases others made on forumite, while still liking the forumite = scum conclusion. End result - I'm not entirely convinced. He doesn't look great. But while I think he's still doing a lot of questioning and not a lot of his own contribution at this point, the questions feel slightly different. I wish he'd give thoughts on other players, but scumForumite in WoF was picking apart a lot of cases that didn't focus his target. Forumite is not doing that here, he's on Maverick but doesn't really keep poking at other people to try and get them off their cases and onto Maverick. Right now I would not vote for him. However, I'll go read another game or two of his either before day or if I survive. I don't like drawing all my conclusions from (1) a game where he was scum and (2) a mini. Especially for those of us who haven't played with him much, of course he's going to look bad if we only read one scum game and see comments like "Forumite usually helpful" "Forumite usually pushing his reads." I'd like to confirm those thoughts with my own reads of other games. dude, 3rd party Forumite gets shot n1 in his games because he's too helpful for town while trying to blend in. Town forumite is helpful for town as well. Only mafia forumite is doing apeshit. | ||
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On September 10 2012 04:02 austinmcc wrote: Third party forumite got shot for being too helpful in a game where I thought he was scum. That was the first case I made in that game before going nuts about your bandaid. I gave my thoughts on WoF Forumite and this game. Right now I wouldn't vote for Forumite. Reading past town games might change that. You consider posts like: On September 06 2012 08:26 Forumite wrote: andWeird, I see what you mean, and I agree. It´s a bad idea to tag you on as a regular suspect at the end of a scumlist. You deserve a top position for your first post on Matt before the Palmar confirmation. That´s a top-grade wishy-washy chainsaw-defence scum post. My reads: Maverick32x (Scum) Everyone else (Null) On September 07 2012 08:17 Forumite wrote: I have two scumreads right now. I had Ottox down as scum, I was wrong but it shouldn´t affect the other reads. They are both based on the time around Matts claim. The first one is Maverick for his first post in the game, it was a reaction to Matts claim and the situation around it, and he was basically trying to divert attention to everyone else, without committing to anything. The second one is Hapa for his posts during the same time. The post below sums it up well. When I read this post at first, I see Hapa buddying up with Matt and throwing suspicion on those attacking him. It didn´t feel right, Matt claiming didn´t arouse any suspicion in him. He said hi to Matt and then chided those attacking him. That´s the ones that jumped out at me when reading the thread. Yes, I should reread all the spam from yesterday, I´ll see about that tomorrow. tl;dr: Hapahauli Maverick32x as not cursory? That's pretty much the only thing he did this game. | ||
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On September 10 2012 05:12 Z-BosoN wrote: [...] What's nagging at me, is that you completely shat on hopeless1's case, saying you didn't like cases against vet's in general. Also, in his case, there are some parts where he mentions some of the things you did on his case against forumite. If you were inclined to think that forumite is scum, why didn't you give emphasis to some of those parts? [...] I did not completly shat on hopeless1's case saying I didn't like cases against vet's in general. I said I don't like it that much because it's far-fetched. What I meant with that is that I see some points on foru and I agree with them but I also got some things I completly disagree with in his case as I do not think everything he pointed out is a mafiatrait or scummy at all. Also about the I don't like cases against vet's in general-phrase as at least 5 people have asked about that by now and it seems no matter how often you guys ask about there's always someone who's still misunderstanding what I said back than. What I meant was I don't like the cases we've got on foru (or vets in general) so far, saying the cases on vets we've got are not good as they're far-fetched. I never said or intended it to sound like I don't like cases against vets. I think I should have made that misunderstanding clear by now but apparently people come back to that all the time and ask me about it... About other Mafiareads: Not much right now. We've already got 2 flipped mafias and there're not going to be 191518696 more mafias in this game. I'm still standing by my point that either Grush or Shady has to be mafia. They're both giving me a hard time and everytime I want to get something going on Grush, Shady gets in the thread saying something that just screams "LYNCH ME" and vice verca. So I'm kind of having a hard time on those two. I'm still suspicious of S&B but I don't really want to go into details about him for a reason. | ||
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"not posting at all, lurking not contributing" so I wouldn't say his play is off meta-based at all. Yeah it's hearsay because I haven't played with him myself but that's not a reason to lynch him. If it is you would have to say BM is mafia as well while we both seem to agree that BM looks somewhat townish. Shady looks bad because of posts that just scream "LYNCH ME" like those: On September 09 2012 01:36 Shady Sands wrote: Alright, let's get this wagon going. ##Vote Grush | ||
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But the other thing you quoted, me telling people to shoot Ottox no matter wether or not you think he'll be taken care of is something I posted 10 seconds prior to the deadline, for a reason. The moment people read that the deadline was already over and I could not have possibly influenced someone. It was just a "if he survives this night you have to lynch him". | ||
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Ottox got (probably) shot by a townvig BM24 got (probably) bombed by the suicidebomber BC got single-stacked by GK according to BKE | ||
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On September 10 2012 08:51 Bill Murray wrote: Forumite's appeal to me to unvote him (though implied) shall be heard at this time. I will be honoring my word as a man, and voting Shady Sands. Z-BosoN is town, as is Toad, and possibly Forumite. This I have decreed. I have decreed that I will hence forth be known as Toad, the Confused because this is giving me headaches. Why can't vigs just claim 5secs prior to deadline (that is if what Grush posted is truely the case) like they are supposed to do... Would make things way easier to figure out, especially in a game without notifications. See you tomorrow... need to reread A LOT | ||
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On September 10 2012 07:58 Forumite wrote: I get the feeling that scum decided on those nightkills very close to the deadline, since Hapa and austinmcc dropped suspicions on BM, Toades and me right before dying. About Toades case on me, I´ve been busy and haven´t been putting much effort into the game. Yes, I´m more cautious than my usual meta, which unfortunately puts me closer to how I behaved in Wheel of Fortune Mafia, my scumteam kept a low profile while town lynched eachother, this tactic worked well in that game. There´s not much more to say except that I have some serious rereading to do. Are you claiming blue or are you claiming third party here? Might as well get over it if you post like that 8( | ||
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On September 10 2012 10:11 Z-BosoN wrote: Because he would have killed austin N1!!!!! Confirmed blue role >>>>> vet townie Why should he? In PTP3 Matt was not just a 2-shot vig but a confirmed INFINITE-vig and everyone knew it. Mafia let him alive because he was wrong with what he said and Matt ended up killing a shitton of townies not targeting a single mafia for the whole game. The only mafia he killed was when someone used "confusion" against him which redirected his vig-shot to someone random and the hosts /rnd-25 hit a mafia n1. There's no reason to kill a townvig from a mafia PoV, especially if he's wrong with what he's saying/thinking, that is if he was wrong. That's an incredible easy judgement to do. Also as someone said otherwise: there's no reason to not claim vig prior to deadline if you are one. If you hit mafia you are instantly confirmed town and that's more helpful than a 2nd hit that may or may not hit another mafia. If you hit town mafia will leave you alive, won't RB you and will just play the wifom "why is he still alive" game while you keep on shooting townies. The fact that Austin did not claim is quite troublesome to be honest... I checked his filter and I wasn't able to find a breadcrumb for n2 either, so no idea if he shot while that information could possible give us an almost confirmed mafia right now.... Haven't checked for his n1 posts yet but I'll do that later and if I or someone else can find something there we're probably best to assume that he did not shoot n2. If nothing is to be found it's just a null. | ||
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On September 11 2012 00:23 slOosh wrote: This shows that Forumite doesn't care about the game. This is his very first mention of Z-boson, he is picking a target that is easy to hop onto, the reasons for scuminness could have been cited D2 but never were and he was not present for any of the discussion concerning him D2. Furthermore, he has not even drawn anything from the discussion as the only behavior he mentions is from D1. Couple this with several more instances of him not reading and general apathy to the game, appearing only when people start suspecting him. ##Vote: Forumite but than again he is right that Z-Boson looks bad. Why can't I be the Joker in a game like this Just shoot em all. | ||
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I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one. So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. | ||
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The drawback is that he could really flip Assassin... while someone like Z-Boson is either going to flip mafia or town and it's more likely to be a mafia flip. But unlike Forumite he has a somewhat realistic offchance to somehow flip town. On top of that the big issues I've got with Z-Boson and BM are all because of what happened today with that blue BM apparently figured out and I think I'm seeing connections there. I like lynching into people when I see connections but pretty much every other vet tells me not to do it because it could be anything I'm seeing. That being said the case on Forumite is the strongest on itself if we ignore the "what if X is mafia" arguments. ##Vote: Forumite | ||
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On September 11 2012 06:35 imallinson wrote: The case against Forumite seems pretty damning and stuff like the weak vote on Z-boson doesn't make him look more town. My only reservation is that I really don't like BM's attempt to claim he is confirmed town and Z-boson backing that up. Vig seems like someone mafia would like to keep alive unless they had their gun aimed at one of their own so I don't buy the "I knew austin was vig day one so I can't be scum" argument. Obviously both Forumite and a Z-Boson/BM team both being scum seems very unlikely. I think Forumite is probably the best looking lynch at the moment but I think Z-Boson and BM need a good look at if he turns out to not be scum. Final thing to note I'm still not fond of Gravan's posting. He is lurking in the shadows only posting a minimum amount to seem like he is contributing. ##Vote: Forumite yeah pretty much exactly this | ||
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I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. It's really as I said, we're bound to find "not-town" in there no matter what and I'm really leaning 3rd party on Foru atm while Boson and BM are more likely to be mafia. The thing about BM is that he's like a Kenpachi junior. You lynch him with knowledge you gain from other lynches or bye process of elimination and not because of what he said because he's always weird. | ||
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On September 11 2012 23:31 DarthPunk wrote: OK I just read through Forumites filter a couple of times and I tried really hard but failed to find anything particularly scummy about him. I even began some cases on him but they sort of fell apart as soon as they began. I am not saying that Forumite is town. What I am saying is that the case on him could be a case on several people in this game and the one thing that differentiates Forumite from these others is the meta claims. He lead a case against Mav day 2. But he then drops it to sheep his scum read Hapa's case on BKE. I found it weird that he dropped scum reads on hapa and Mav and then failed to pursue them any further after day 2 but I don't view this as damning evidence. The accusations that BM have been throwing at Forumite since day one and the defense of them which take up a large part of his filter are also hardly damning. Forumite has not been a particularly active scum hunter. Sheeped the Matt and BKE lynches defended himself when questioned. This could describe many of the players currently in the game. The weirdest thing is how he dropped his reads on hapa and mav, never to return and sheeped his scum reads case so easily. All in all I find Forumite mildly scummy but not any more so than the multitude of scummy players in this game. I do not see anything particularly damning and I find it odd that so many people are voting for him over almost identical candidates. The thing about Forumite is that he is as scummy or as not-so-scummy as everyone else, as you just mentioned but unlike everyone else he's not just like everyone else, he's Forumite. You usually don't find mafia-vets by scummyness or something they posted because they don't screw up that badly. Yeah sometimes something weird happens and this game & Matt are the perfect example that these kind of things happen every 10 games or so but in general nothing like that will happen. So what you want to look out for is stuff that is NOT happening. There is no other way to figure out vets. That method isn't working with other people because for it to work you need to know that the guy in question knows what he's doing which is almost never the case unless you're a vet or have been around long enough to be considered decent. | ||
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On September 12 2012 22:50 Kreb wrote: Of course. But given the fact that he pretty much told us we should be paranoid as fuck about him (which I very much am) due to how supposedly good he was as mafia, I at least think we could demand a comment. As I said Im not suspicious, Im just paranoid. I trusted him for this lynch, that trust took a bit of a hit. Im wondering if I should renew the trust or not. hey am back, haven't read a thing yet and yeah I agree with what you "proposed" although it's for a different reason. Only got like half an hour time until I've got to leave again but I'll have time later on (like 4 hours prior to deadline) to post something. However reasoning for medics considering me: I don't think medics / Jailers should be protecting me as well. Right now there's pretty much no way mafia is going to shoot me because people are getting paranoid about me. Mafia are probably not going to shoot me because they want that paranoia. Yeah I could be saying that as mafia as well giving an explanation why I survived yet another night but it really works both ways. For all I care, if you're paranoid just track me if you think I'm mafia and frankly I'd actually say that already happened given my "most people are afraid about me" post either n1 or n2 anyways. Of course if you're a tracker it's up to you when you want to track me because if I was mafia I could just tell people to track me and be the guy who's not delivering a KP (assuming more than 2 mafia alive). So waiting until we've got rid of another mafia might be the way to go for trackers, but it's up to you, I've got nothing to hide :p | ||
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On September 13 2012 02:32 Z-BosoN wrote: That's bullshit. If you were actually any real danger to mafia based on your scumhunting abilities you would certainly meet the same fate BC and DrH had, no matter the amount of "paranoia" you claim. If you are indeed not mafia and you don't get shot, that's because either mafia doesn't feel threatened by you and it's good keeping you alive, or because you got shot n1 as an assassin (which I'll assume is not what happened). You made one case on forumite in N2 and pretty much did nothing for the rest of day 3. Mafia isn't scared of you, period. paranoia on me is a reason not be afraid of me as mafia no matter how you see it though. If mafia thinks they can get a mislynch on me they will leave me alive for that reason and also because they feel that they can divert the right lynches I'm going to push because of that paranoia. That's the whole point. I'm btw pretty sure I got shot n1 and protected, which apparently is the reason they didn't shoot me n2. I can't imagine someone else being shot AND being protected at the same time, that'd be way to convenient to make sense. | ||
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Because from what you post it sounds like you found something that you consider to be a scumslip. If that's the case why don't you just post it? That shouldn't take too long. However, I'm not mafia and therefore you won't find something like that but you're probably getting yourself killed. Have fun being dead and all, unless of course you are mafia YOURSELF, won't shoot yourself tonight (obviously I'd say) and want to play the "see that confirms Toad as mafia. If he was town mafia would have shot me to get 2 kills out of 1KP!" game tomorrow. So I propose this: Trackers go and track Z-Boson. If he's a Mad Hatter as he says he is and he genuinely believes me to be mafia he already has the bomb placed on me (as he just claimed) and therefore doesn't need to visit someone as he doesn't need to change the bomb and can just leave it on me. If that guy visits someone we've got ourselves a mafia :p | ||
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Just Shoot Z-Boson tonight. If he's really stupid enough to be a Mad Hatter and claim like that I'm dead anyways because Mafia will shoot him to get 2 kills out of 1 KP. If he's not he's fakeclaiming that on purpose because he's mafia and wants to play a wifom game because obviously he's not going to get shot, which will result in me not being blown up. Either way it's a perfect scenario for mafia thanks to Z-Boson. Worst case: He really is a stupid townie he's dead by now and wether or not he gets single-stacked or doublestacked really isn't that much of a difference. All we lose is a single bullet while the townie was dead anyways Best case: You kill a mafia You really can't go wrong on this one if you're a vig. So please no protection on him and if we still got a vig just shoot him. | ||
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But if you're scared a vig on Z-Boson will do just fine, as mentioned no Watchers needed. Trackers are only needed if we don't have a vig, which we don't know | ||
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On September 13 2012 06:05 Kreb wrote: Actually, with all actions happening simultaneously, he should be able to move the bomb should he get killed by the mafia (if hes town). So mafia should still be wary shooting him for that reason, the bomb might end up anywhere. I'd still prefer not tracking him though, if hes mafia theres no way he'll do the night kills, and even if the claim is true that doesnt mean anything because he wont necessarily move the bomb. Watchers might wanna watch him though. If people think that way it's a pretty decent reason for mafia to choose him as the guy dealing the KP. That's why I want trackers on him, to deny him that chance. It's really only about whether he's smart or "not-so-smart" right now. What I've said was said for a reason but I stand behind what I said: If we got a vig shoot that guy no matter what you think about him. If he's town he's dead anyways and I'm as well if he really told the truth. | ||
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On September 13 2012 07:28 Kreb wrote: Yes, thats what I thought too. But thats 1KP on Boson. Would the 2nd KP really be on mkfuba? I dont see that making sense.... I guess they changed the kills in the last second and had not much time to think about it. Maybe Z-Boson got doublestacked but that kind of defeats the purpose of shooting him to begin with. So yeah I think both got killed by mafia. | ||
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On September 13 2012 16:01 DarthPunk wrote: That's exactly right. You can defiantly lean town on him but going from that to confirmed makes me uncomfortable. Especially when people are talking about sheeping him immediately. I consider the fact that mafia usually don't shoot themselves a way better indicator for my townieness. Just saying. Though yeah, when playing mafia I'm pretty bold but I doubt I'd be that nuts. | ||
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It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2. Not sure I want to take that gamble today. | ||
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On February 09 2012 02:19 Palmar wrote: I claim two-face too, you see, the role is shared between two people who are basically masons. That's why I told Toad he was dumb. I threw some suspicion on him day 1 without ever intending to lynch him (we're confirmed town to each other, obviously). Also I told him not to claim, but he refused to listen to that. He's the "good" part (DT) and I'm the "bad" part (vigilante) So yeah, I can confirm Toad's claim. If BM knows what I'm talking about he's good but should shut up at the same time :3 | ||
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On September 13 2012 21:22 Bill Murray wrote: cute you're still scum. role=/=alignment. I'm not talking about roles unless of course I want to make it look like I'm talking about roles, in that case I'm totally talking about roles. But I guess you're good. | ||
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But I'm willing to sheep someone else today, for the good of town! | ||
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See you happened to be my #1 out of these 3 2 hours ago. Now you're down to #3. That's a start, isn't it? | ||
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On September 14 2012 01:25 strongandbig wrote: Also toad, have you considered Sloosh as one of the assassins when you do your scummy-vet-balance stuff? It would explain why he only started playing for real when he got called out on not playing to his town meta. Also also, I'd just like to point out how once again you're not including yourself when you do vet-balance stuff. This is like the fourth game I've been in with you where you've done that. nah sloOsh is not a vet. And I'm including myself. I'm town :3 You're saying This is like the fourth game I've been in with you where you've done that. but I don't see the problem. Unless of course you just wanted to point out that you don't like that in general and want me to change that attitude in future games no matter of alignment. | ||
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So I don't really want to talk about it as it's incredible pointless right now. | ||
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On September 14 2012 01:51 strongandbig wrote: Yeah I think people shouldn't do things that hurt their team when they're town just because they help their team when they're scum. but wrt sloosh - you said that BM and I are the assassins, but I'm not a vet either It's not hurting town. My town play doesn't include doing things I can't get rid of as mafia, it's actually the other way around: Being honest with what I say and including mistakes I'd make as town as well is what I'm doing as mafia. The thing is it's not hurting town because it's all based on the assumption that I'm town to begin with. If you don't think I'm town you obviously don't give a shit on my assertion about my assumptions either way. No need to post a "oh well and if I'm not town everything I said is obviously inevitably flawed". I trust people to be smart enough to figure that out themselves. | ||
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On September 14 2012 04:25 Mementoss wrote: I have two questions about the night: Why is sloosh and toad still alive day 4? Why was MKFuba killed? Are you reading the game? Or did you just forget that we had someone claim having a bomb on me? They shot Z-Boson, the guy who claimed Mad hatter who placed a bomb on me to get a free kill (hinthint: I was supposed to be the free kill). Why should they shoot the guy who is supposed to be a free kill on top of having the bomb do the job? Unless of course they didn't believe the claim, which can't be because if that's the case they could have just shot me without having to shoot Z-Boson. Furthermore the kills seemed to be rashly rearranged to fit the changed situation with Z-Boson claiming. I really don't get what you're asking here. Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far. You should put your paranoia somewhere else. Maybe something good will come out of it if you target someone else. | ||
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On September 14 2012 05:10 Mementoss wrote: Yeah but if you were mafia you would have shot Zboson to make yourself look more townie. You said this DIRECTLY after the mad hatter claim: So you being alive after Mad Hatter claim and boson is dead means nothing to me and should mean nothing to anyone. 1) If your town, mafia shoots ZBoson and hopes to kill you as well 2) If your mafia, you already were confident it was a fakeclaim and killed Zboson to somewhat confirm yourself. The fact that you act as it somewhat confirms you as town anymore than anything else is concerning. acting confident in the thread as mafia and shooting the guy in the balls who claims to have a bomb on you are two very different things. Again, yes I'm a bold mafia player in general but that? Risking everything when I'm totally fine (assuming I'm mafia) with just shooting someone else who did not claim to have a bomb on me? You now know that Z-Boson is town because he flipped town but you think anyone would have considered lynching me after his post? Even if both Boson and I survived I wouldn't even look bad because of that so there's not a single reason for me to take that gamble that could possibly lose my team (still assuming I'm mafia) the game just on the whim that I'm thinking the guy is fakeclaiming. There's just no reason to shoot Boson from a mafia perspective if I am mafia. Not a single one that isn't overshadowed by massive drawbacks even if I considered it to be a fakeclaim while there is a shitton of reasoning for shooting Boson if I'm town. Just stop it, go scumhunt somewhere else. You won't find something at my place. | ||
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On September 14 2012 05:27 Shady Sands wrote: Toad, look at Grav and tell me how you don't see a scum. I very much think he's scum. I like my vote on Mementoss better for the moment though. If only for the reason that I no longer want to lynch Mementoss first. | ||
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On September 14 2012 05:36 Shady Sands wrote: I think MMT's continual harping on this subject is what he's using to substitute for actual scumhunting. He knows no one is going to ever lynch you, so his mislynching efforts will never see the light of day. That being said though, I think it's better that he dies tomorrow. Today is a day for Gravan. What do you think about him? On September 14 2012 05:36 Toadesstern wrote: I very much think he's scum. I like my vote on Mementoss better for the moment though. If only for the reason that I no longer want to lynch Mementoss first. Yeah it's between Grav and Mav for me. Leaning on Grav right now. Mementoss is not going to get lynched and I don't want him to get lynched right now, probably not even tomorrow. Don't think a mafia would so violently tell everybody how I'm looking stupid when he in fact knows that I'm town. A mafia usually wants to be on the right side of things if possible without killing his allies and therefore I'd assume mafias to be the ones going easy on me or actually defending me in front of other people to look good later on. Now way I'm going to get him lynched :p | ||
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On September 14 2012 05:50 slOosh wrote: So you are saying you think MMT is town now? well I'm at least doubting his scuminess to a point that I want Grav and Mav lynched first. | ||
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On September 14 2012 05:52 Mementoss wrote: The bolded part is pretty hilarious consider this:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325046 You and VE started bussing eachother very early when you were both looking pretty fine. Highly risky play is it not? I'll drop it for the moment, but I think its important for people to know. For now I would like to get some good stuff out of you. Whats the best lynch for today and why, and do you have any other strong scum reads or cases to present? that was in a situation when a we needed 2 mislynches to win the game. With the bus we considered 1 mislynch to be granted for free (anyone saying otherwise really is retarded btw) so we basicly put town into 5 lylos in a row with that bus. I don't think mafia is having that great of a time this game. | ||
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On September 14 2012 05:57 slOosh wrote: But your posting says otherwise. This is a clear town read. You would never say this to scum. sure, I want to know wether or not my doubt is justified. For that to happen I need him to stop acting all paranoid about me. | ||
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On September 14 2012 06:13 slOosh wrote: Something is definitely out of order here. It's like you don't care who get's lynched. How did your scum reads change so drastically? I explained that like 3 times. Do you want me to quote it or are you going to search for it yourself? | ||
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yeah, I think Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Explains the situation I'm in pretty decently | ||
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On September 14 2012 07:03 Mementoss wrote: Don't mafia usually try to at least list one fellow team mate in these things lol. Yeah. I'm usually telling people to make it somewhat of an 1/3 mafia + 2/3 town mix when coaching or talking with people in QTs when I'm mafia myself. Obviously depends on the situation but I'd highly doubt there's no mafia in that list. | ||
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On September 14 2012 07:08 Gravan wrote: I am trying to incite some discussion on the topic. I am still reading through toad's filter and I find it very difficult to get a read on him. He spends a lot of time arguing meta and boasting about how great he is at mafia, but he also appears to contribute. Really, I just want to point out that, if you guys do lynch me, when I flip green, to take a good hard look at Toad's interactions with Shady - something I am currently doing. You're still reading my filter. Yet you feel like telling us that if you flip green people should look into my conversation with Shady? What has you flipping green to do with my conversation with Shady? Why is it only of importance if you flip green? Are you going to have a better read on me or Shady by the time you flip green? | ||
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On September 14 2012 12:14 slOosh wrote: Guhh ... why do you guys wait until now to play properly? What Maverick did just now was a very very town thing. Feigning activity and making cases is easy. Calling the runner up lynch candidate town when you have the most votes is not. The only motivation to do that is that you are town, and you think this person is town. You can see that he doesn't value his specific survival over the town's interests. His case really shows his thinking process and also clarifies past contradictions (e.g. he left out Graven from his scum reads) - consistency like this is hard to setup as scum. Gravan ... it's really weird with him. As Maverick points out he is playing consistently (regardless of quality). I remember thinking he was newbie town making lots of mistakes, and it could be he is scummy because of this. Also strange is the nature of the maverick counter wagon. Still thinking this one through. ShiaoPi: his treatment of Mav is townish. Timezones are timezones. Select stuff in his filter make me think he is town and explain his actions but will not divulge unless there is a large enough body of evidence against him. This leaves me with two people: SnB has not cared at all about the past two lynches. You can see from his filter that he jumps on the Forumite lynch with little to contribute while also discrediting Rewok. He jumps on the maverick lynch with little to add and also makes sure people know that everyone could be scum ("MMT made the case on Mav but you never know maybe he is scum"). His latest posts are pure setup speculation. He treats Toad very strangely - I'm not sure if he thinks Toad might be scum and hunting for reactions or he is pretending to engage in meaningful conversation. Toad is someone who has flared up upon a proper reread of the Z-Boson mad hatter business. I originally thought him town after our little spat at the start of the game. However if you reread his filter carefully, you will notice that he uses "vet balance" to get Forumite lynched, but after that he says "oh I guess I was wrong, oh well". He seemed to taunt Z-boson near deadline and called for vig shots on him even if he was town because he would die anyway. I know I said mafia wouldn't kill a potential mad hatter but I forgot that there is a very good chance of a roleblocker in the game, as we still don't know about austin's 2nd shot. I find the explanations for his dismissal of SnB and BM to be beyond just strange, as he is ignoring possible scum on raw setup speculation. Thoughts please, we need to get this lynch right. dude, that's totally not working if I announced it yesterday | ||
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I doubt you'd be rolefishing so openly as mafia though. Obviously a mafia would want to know whether the townie (assuming you are mafia and BM is town) is right or just found some bullshit to figure out if a kill is on *supposed to be blue* is needed or good. I'd say a mafia is going to read the filter or tell his buddies about it so that they read it (because people are lazy). Townies sadly end up rolefishing quite a lot in games because they think that will somehow improve their reads on someone or they think that everything somehow makes sense once you figured that out. So I'm not giving to much into you rolefishing although you are. | ||
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On September 14 2012 21:49 Shady Sands wrote: Toad, how am I rolefishing? I've been pushing a Grav wagon for 20+ hours now, and BM said we shouldn't lynch Grav because he is blue. I went in and asked why he thought Grav was blue, because if BM doesn't give me any reasons why he thinks Grav is blue AKA not scum, then how can I persuade BM that Grav is scum? Well that kind of is the definition of bluefishing. Let's assume BM really found something. You're trying to make him tell you what he found, so you can not only figure out whether or not he's right but also what kind of blue he is because a "blueslip" or whatever else made BM think he's blue is usually very specific. Sure claiming someone else is borderline retarded as well if you really think so but as this seemed to be a joke I don't care enough to get into details on that one. I don't really see the problem here to be honest, which is the reason I didn't post about it until asked: Shady thinks Gravan is mafia BM thinks Shady slipped and accidently told people his buddy Gravan is mafia and not town. Seems to me like we should lynch Gravan and decide wether or not that typo was a slip or just some bullshit later on. | ||
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Curiosity is a bitch and gets in peoples way no matter of alignment though | ||
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So if there's someone having a fancy plan spill it out, I don't have all day and will keep my vote on Gravan unless something happens. | ||
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On September 15 2012 00:45 Quatol wrote: Vote Count: Gravan (6) : imallinson, Shady Sands, slOosh, ShiaoPi, Toadesstern, Darth Punk Maverick32x (4) : strongandbig, Hopeless1der, grush57, Mementoss Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray ShiaoPi (1) : Maverick32x Yet to vote: Rewok, Kreb Currently Gravan is set to be lynched. 6 and a quarter hours to deadline! What this tells me is mainly that I don't necessarily want to lynch into Mementoss or Mav today. That leaves us with Gravan or a voteswitch to Shady Sands from my point of view. What it also tells me is that I really don't like any of you guys right now, which makes it quite hard for me and I'm getting paranoid as well, which probably is the reason why people get the "Toad is seemingly willing to lynch a bunch of people" feel today, because it really is that way. The people I'm not willing to lynch aren't on the "do not lynch"-list because I've got townreads on them at all. They're on that list for different reasons. I'm gone in roughly two hours from the time of this post. If you want to say something, say it now. I am interested in hearing your thoughts about todays lynch. I don't mind if you repeat yourself and re-post cases or something like that. I want to know what people are doing right now. | ||
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On September 15 2012 01:50 imallinson wrote: I find it interesting that the two top candidates for a lynch haven't voted for each other. This doesn't really make sense from a town perspective. If you are town you know 100% you are town and the same cannot be said for the other person. Surely in that case it is better for town to lynch the person you are not 100% sure is town. The only reason you wouldn't want to vote for the other person close to being lynched is if you were both scum. It's very unlikely at this point that shady or shiao are going to get lynched yet mav and gravan have their votes on them. it makes no sense no matter of alignment. You usually don't want to be lynched no matter of alignment, as town because as you mentioned the other guy is at the max a 99% sure town, which still leaves a 1% chance to flip mafia while you're a 100% town. As mafia you want to survive because, therefore you want the other guy to die, therefore you vote him. If both are mafia you bus hardcore and make it look like it's only one of you two who is mafia while the other guy is town. Yes it's not making sense at all. That's the point here. | ||
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There's multiple good choices for today and I highly doubt all of them are mafia, which kind of speaks for itself I guess... See you after the lynch, hopefully with a dead mafia. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I'm a tracker. That's the reason I changed my reads sometimes a bit without much of explaining and there's some interesting stuff. First things first: Checks are in that order:
There's a couple interesting parts here, the most interesting part certainly is the BM24 check because pretty much everyone assumes that he got bombed. I checked him n1. If he really was bombed I'd be dead. I'm not dead. That's the reason I wanted BKE dead so much after his claim of watching BC because I as well thought the bomber used his ability. That's not the case unless BKE lied and there's no reason for him to lie. What that means is that we've got a 2nd vig somewhere, possibly a town vig but it could also be a mafia vig. BC was killed by mafia KP BM24 was killed by mafia KP (most likely, could be the 2nd vig as well but I'd doubt that) GK was 100% killed by town vig Ottox was killed by either a town vig or a mafia vig who was scared of being tracked so that he could claim "town vig who shot Ottox like everyone said" BM24 returned visting imallinson but that hardly matters as BM24 was a NN. Btw some posts I did: On September 07 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: I'm actually looking suspicious considering BlackMamba24s flip I guess... I'd also got a bunch of assumptions about the set-up now that we have seen not a single blue flip but the suicide bomber flipped. I guess not talking about that is best though. But all that makes me want to lynch Forumite even more and yeah I'd say he's the way to go for today considering that Ottox and Dr.H are dead. Also I said this one for a reason: On September 13 2012 19:37 Toadesstern wrote: Oh I also don't think there's a medic. Should have probably told you about that earlier considering Z-bosons entire plan was based on being saved by the medic. Didn't think about that in time The reason we assumed there was a medic to begin with was that we thought a medic saved someone n1 because we thought there was KP missing. There was no KP missing therefore I said this, again the only way for this to be true is knowledge that the suicidebomber did not use his ability. I never told you guys because telling you that would have required claiming and it was no important information. There could still be a medic out there for all I know, it's just not necessary as we suspected it to be earlier on. There was no reason to claim at all so I just ignored it. No Drawbacks from everyone thinking "well that probably means we've got a medic" (after all mafia shooting Assassin could be true as well, so the logic was flawed to begin with) No gains from telling people that I visited BM24 other than explaining why I wanted BKE dead so much (although I tried to make it sound reasonable because I didn't want to look like a blue). But I tried to get him lynched without claiming obviously. I would have claimed that day if we would have needed more votes on BKE, Foru returned visiting noone and I had a mafia read on him. Which made it all a little hard but I was still convinced in my read, so I sticked with it S&B also returned visiting noone. At that point I was kind of frustrated after the failure with Foru and left him be, wanted to check him today again to see if he was still visiting noone (VT) or ended up visiting someone (mafia). Again, same reasoning for BM24: I said I think he's Assassin because I didn't want him lynched before getting a 2nd track on him. With (probably) 3 mafia left there's only a 1/3 chance for him to be mafia if I consider my read to be right because 2 out of 3 mafias have to deliver a kill so I considered it quite likely that he's actually just a VT and my read was wrong. Saying I'd consider him to be mafia before the end of the night and changing it to a townread would have been weird and a blueslip, so I told people that I think he's an Assassin as a way out of it without looking to drastic of a change of mind because that would have been a blue-slip and I would have been killed. I did not want him to be lynched because of that. I called him Assassin as an intermediate stage to calling him town the next day if the track would have returned VT again. So yeah I was trying not to look like a blue. Answering some things (it's 2:30 am, want to go to bed soon so it's only one, big post): + Show Spoiler [Shady Sands] + On September 15 2012 08:06 Shady Sands wrote: In light of the S&B flip, I think Toad is scum, because Toad has continually tried to paint S&B as an assassin. Based on this assassin read, Toad has used this as an excuse for himself to not pressure S&B or even mention him in the thread. + Show Spoiler [evidence] + On September 11 2012 01:21 Toadesstern wrote: Let's be honest here: I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one. So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. On September 13 2012 19:57 Toadesstern wrote: I said either BM or Foru are mafia later on. Something like d2, n2 or d3 I guess? So that one would be the more updated read on BM but not sure if that still holds. It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2. Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's more than three times over the past 2 votecycles. During (and before) those 2 votecycles, Toad was pushing BKE, Z-Boson, and Forumite, all of whom flipped town or blue. Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Notice a pattern? They're all dead. TLDR: Toad has soft-defended S&B for awhile, pushed three straight townies for lynches, and anyone who made substantive cases on him has been NK'd. Now onto my post about S&B. I made that in the heat of the moment in my effort to get Gravan lynched. In retrospect, it looks scummy and stupid. That being said, I misread what S&B wrote about Gravan--I thought he was agreeing that Gravan was scum, when it is apparent now that S&B was actually soft-defending him. Since I thought at the time that Gravan was scum, anyone who came out before a lynch was inevitable on Gravan and made noises about lynching him earned town points in my book. Now that S&B has flipped scum, I retract that and I think Gravan is just a bad town who other scum tried to latch upon. Grav's behavior, in particular, over the past few hours has been very townie and returns my read on him to null. I have a few other players who look scummy to me: Rewok ShiaoPi Mementoss DarthPunk I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost. Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der. That's one big pile of bullshit. I explained why I said he's an assassin although you obviously couldn't know about that. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's a lie, you even quoted it. I said I want Gravan or you lynched. That's not "anyone but S&B" although frankly speaking if you had asked I would have probably said anyone but S&B because of my VT read on him. But that's not the point, you're making something up. Why is that Shady Sands? I would understand it if you had said "anyone but Mav" because Mav, Gravan and you were the only 3 people who had votes, so I basicly said I don't want to lynch Mav. Why is "anyone but S&B" and not "anyone but Mav" when I say 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan? I was pushing BKE because I considered him a fakeclaimed, just like I considered Matt to be a fakeclaimer because I was fairly certain the suicide bomber used his ability at that time. I think everyone was and probably before my claim everyone in here still thought that's what happened. So you'll certainty agree that that consideration of mine made sense, don't you? Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Are you mispresenting things on purpose?
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 15 2012 07:18 strongandbig wrote: gg i guess obs qt plz apologies to my team for my lack of activity. working 11PM to 7AM really fucked with my head On September 15 2012 07:19 slOosh wrote: No hard feelings snb. Now to make a list to lynch into and win the game. That's kinda funny. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 15 2012 18:32 Bill Murray wrote: toad's claim - really weirdly timed mafia wouldn't wifom that, so he is up for lynch tomorrow, especially since his "track targets" are partially dead. I'm claiming because I'm still like 97% confirmed "Not-mafia" like Z-Boson explained and people for some reason consider me a possible lynch candidate. I'm claiming because it proves that I had no knowledge of the nightkills n1, which again, proves I'm not mafia. I'm claiming because I know there's a 2nd vig out there somewhere (unlike you) and if people keep on harping about how I am mafia because all the people who kept saying I'm town are dead by now (how in the world is that mafiatreat for me?). It's better to claim like this and possibly lose my role than to be shot by a vig at night because some idiot told him "duuude, toad is mafia because people said he's town!" On September 15 2012 20:38 Kreb wrote: With a nights sleep and soem thinking I thought I'd try and update a bit on the situation as I see it. People I'd consider high priority voting target atm: Toad, Rewok and maaaybe BM too. Not gonna spend another big post on BM, but I'll spend one on Toad and Rewok respectively. Toad - Woah, theres too many little small things here I'd like to mention, but without a doubt the biggest one is his interactions with S&B and his continous assassin painting of him. But, as Ive explained before Ive been very paranoid about Toad. That probably means Ive thought a lot more about "Why would Toad want to write this here if he was mafia?" than Ive done with any other player. I'll just list a bunch of things I thought were very conviniently said, or things which happened which would be very convinient for a possible mafia-Toad (incoming overusage of the word convenient): 1) This post: + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 06:59 Toadesstern wrote: Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post (+ Show Spoiler [click me!] + On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. People who are not vets but should be a topic Ottox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia.Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ... Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. And in particular this part: That, to me, looks like pre-defending against the normal "Toad is unreadable" posts. Convenient to do for a mafia. No it's not convenient to do as mafia. It's a necessity to mention if you want to stop people posting bullshit like that. That's an early: Don't even think about posting something like that. If you want to attack me, attack me with arguments. I'll consider everyone who says "Toad is mafia because he is unreadable" to be mafia or derailing the thread on purpose. That's not an excuse, it's telling people to not post useless stuff that has no meaning to it but looks like contribution. Defending against "woah Toad is mafia because I'm paranoid" isn't even possible in the first place. If that's your argument it can't be early defending because there's no point to attack that "argument". I'm basicly telling people to not post fluff and instead post actual arguments. 2) However, following that thoght, I think his post had a bit of a backlash. Remember me posting this: + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2012 22:50 Kreb wrote: But given the fact that he pretty much told us we should be paranoid as fuck about him (which I very much am) due to how supposedly good he was as mafia, I at least think we could demand a comment. As I said Im not suspicious, Im just paranoid. I trusted him for this lynch, that trust took a bit of a hit. Im wondering if I should renew the trust or not. And I also think I remember someone else also expressing paranoia about Toad, dont quote me on that though, not gonna read through everything to find a sentence about it. I might be wrong. But anyway, after that we saw Toad saying stuff like this: + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far. You should put your paranoia somewhere else. Maybe something good will come out of it if you target someone else. And this: Very convenient to try and get rid of the fact that people have expressed paranoia about him. Well as mentioned. Paranoia is not an actual argument. What am I supposed to do about that besides saying "cool down a little, try and scumhunt elsewhere or at least give me some actual comments. What you're doing is pointless"? 3) Him posting an extensive case on Forumite, but not really trying to push the wagon on it. He left that to other people (there was someone pointing this out, dont remember who, not gonna spend the time looking for that one phrase). Very convenient to plant the seed and let others do the hard work. That's just a lie. I was the guy who pushed Forumite the most. When people asked why we're lynching Forumite people referred to my case, people referred to "yeah let's sheep Toad". Fine if you think it's scummy to be wrong that would be one thing but saying I didn't push Forumite and made other people do the legwork is a straight up lie. Pretty sure if you asked people "who was the reason for Forus lynch?" everyone would have answered saying my name. 4) Him compltely going "sit back and watch" style for the last night kill. He was very lightly discussing who to vote. We saw posts like these: Now these wouldnt have been all too strange if he hadnt been a lot more pushy in his previous cases. Now hes seemingly fine sitting back and enjoying the show. Very convenient. Now you're even admitting that you lied when talking about 3). if he hadnt been a lot more pushy in his previous cases I thought the reason I'm scummy is because I wasn't pushy at all when pushing Foru and made the other people do the legwork?You're contradicting yourself. You're saying when pushing foru I wasn't pushing hard enough therefore I'm mafia and when pushing foru I was pushing way harder than later on, which means I am mafia because I pushed foru so hard. That just doesn't make sense 5) Also not how he switches people very fast in those quotes (MMToss -> Grav/MMToss/Mav -> SS/Grav. And he doesnt seem to keen on explaining why he is switching around all those names. Its like he doesnt have a will at all and just wants to follow. And I do think we can be pretty sure Toad has a will. I think I explained my reasoning pretty well and you're just like SS here, you apparently read the thread but haven't understood what was posted... The vote on MMToss (and the switches in stances) was to see how people would react. That's why I asked about how people feel when asking about specific people, because I wanted to know who's going to answer and how he's going to answer. Again here's what happened:
That's not switching reads at all. That's starting with a bunch and decreasing the number until I'm down with someone I like the most to be lynched. Yet you're only looking at the votes, not even reading the explanations I gave because frankly you haven't understood the situation at all 6) Him coming into the thread with a "perfect" setup defense at 2.30 am when he (at least according to what he said) wasnt present at lynch time. Hmmm. It's "perfect" because it's the truth... way to confirmation bias. Of course it's simple to explain things if I have to just write what actually happened lol. Actually here's one thing about my mafia play everyone knows: I NEVER lie about anything unless I have to. I always leave the facts that are true as they are and just change my own alignment to fit the situation but I'm never lying about something like nightkills or something like that. If you consider me a mafia you also have to think that I lied when I claimed. Now why I breadcrumb something like a track on BM24 the guy who we (assuming I'm mafia) suicide bombed if I really was lying about my claim and that never happened to begin with? Why did I pick BM24 to breadcrum? The only guy it's impossible to breadcrumb about if I'm really a liar when I (unlike SS I think?) knew about the Suicidebomber and that it affects Trackers and Watchers + Show Spoiler [lookylooky] + On September 08 2012 23:37 Shady Sands wrote: I thought Watcher wasn't affected by suicide bomber? Anyhow, if your interpretation of the rules is true, that just makes BKE's claim even less likely to be true. This just proves that I had no knowledge of the nightkills. If I had I would not have picked BM24 for two reasons: 1) The guy got shot by mafia. Why would I want to possibly tell people "dudes I visited the guy who got shot by mafia yesterday" 2) Why did I pick the guy who got suicidebombed (assuming I'm a liar/mafia) instead of someone that just makes sense? Again, that's from the n1 deadline. And btw you can check the entirety of my mafia games. I'll ensure you won't find a single game in which I'm preparing breadcrumbs ahead of time as mafia because I'm way too lazy to do that. 7) The claim itself, where he claims tracker (no other confirmed track so far, convenient) and how most of his reads are impossible/hard to confirm. Same thing as 4). That's confirmation bias. Obviously there's no other tracker so far because I'm a tracker. But you're saying the fact that there's no other tracker so far means I'm mafia who picked that on purpose. How is that the option but simply thinking "well, might be he IS a tracker" isn't an option? That's the worst kind of confirmation bias I've ever seen. Also Tracker is a bitch to claim. It's literally impossible to claim for mafia. For all I care you could tell me who to track today (one of the reasons I CLAIMED RIGHT NOW, to confirm myself), I'd do that and bam, there's no way for mafia to fake that. I either am a tracker or I'm dead. Why would I claim that as mafia? Why would you want to risk killing me if it's literally impossible to fakeclaim a tracker as "not-tracker" and time will tell whether or not I'm a tracker just fine 8) Bringing back the same quote from before: Now, he didnt say anything about his town-play in that big post he made early on where he explained his awesome mafia play. But he has certainly done a descent amount of talking about what vets are and that they are good at the game. Then hes suddenly claiming to be an average town player (when we should be asking ourselves why he isnt dead yet, especially since there was a quite unanimous view that he shouldnt get any protection last night). Very convenient to build yourself as an average player to stop such questions from popping up? Oh yes. Yeha, again someone who hasn't read the thread. Have you forgot there was someone who claimed to have a bomb on me? Because I'm pretty sure someone asked me that as well a couple of days ago and completly forgot about the Z-Boson claim: Z-Boson claimed to have a bomb on me. Mafia shot him because they thought he had a bomb on me. Why in the world should mafia place KP on me if they think there's a bomb on me? That's wasted. Of course I'm still alive. Also I did a good job of promoting the idea that we've got a medic while that was complete and utter bullshit. Mafia is dodging high priority targets, as can be seen when checking out the nightkills. They're afraid of medic protection and want to have safe kills rather than dead vets. BM is still alive, no one is bitching about him, are you? 9) In light of his tracker claim, doesnt this come off as a bit odd? Why would you try to direct trackers somewhere if you were a tracker? Why shouldn't I? Again, you're using confirmation bias to make me look like a mafia. You're saying "dude is a liar, therefore he is not a tracker, therefore this makes no sense" but if you look at it from another angle and just assume I'm not a liar for a second it makes perfect sense. If I'm a tracker I don't think it's likely there's more trackers in the game, maybe a 2nd but not a 3rd with a watcher already flipped. I said that to not look like a blue while being 70% certain it won't affect people at all because there's no 2nd tracker to begin with. It would have been troublesome if I had told anyone but trackers to be on Z-Boson because that would have been a serious request while saying something about trackers is a moot point because there's most likely no other trackers in this game and I don't influence people at al. And to remind you all: These are IN ADDITION to the constant assassin painting of S&B. I already explained that. If you had a VT check on your mafia read. What would you do? Get in the thread claiming "sup I'm a tracker and S&B did not visit anyone last night, therefore he's most likely a VT!" ? Of course not, you'd try to subtle implant the idea that you were wrong about S&B to not look like someone who changed his mind about S&B out of nowhere because he suddenly got some new information because that's a blueslip. Again, you're using confirmation bias to make me look bad. Paranoia or not, with the S&B flip I do think this looks a bit too fishy to leave alone. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 15 2012 22:29 Shady Sands wrote: Scum has been pushing ballsy play all game long (Mattchew). Anyhow: If we are to believe Toad, then a townie vig somehow sniped GK. Hence my vote is going to stick on Toad unless a townie vig comes forward and claims for the GK nightkill. (Needless to say don't claim until after the Daypost.) Translation: He's willing to put everything on a coinflip. If Austin was the vig who shot GK and a mafia-vig (or another town vig) shot Ottox he is going to vote me because there's no (possible) claim. If Austin wasn't the vig who shot GK he's willing to think about not voting me. LoL | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 15 2012 23:19 Mementoss wrote: Toad you were clearly around for alot of the last lynch, you played the role of town leader for the first 3 days, why did you decide to be useless for the latest lynch and throw out a bunch of "I don't giva fuck who dies" type posts. You yourself even said there were too many people sheeping and lurking, and you do it yourself that whole day. Content to kill anyone that becomes popular to kill. I was still somewhat set on S&B and as mentioned wanted to track him a 2nd time. However I ended up calling him an Assassin to give myself the oppertunity to either go back to "nah think he's town" or "nah screw that, he's just mafia" depending on the 2nd check. If he had returned not visiting someone I would have ignored him for the time being. If it had returned visting someone dead I could have instantly pushed him without slipping as a blue that way because going from "think he's assassin" to "think he's mafia" isn't that big of a change. When I said I'm the most uncertain about the lynch yesterday I wasn't kidding. I considered S&B to be suspicious but did not want to lynch him until I got my 2nd check back so I forced to go for a target I considered to be inferior. I had huge troubles deciding between Grav / SS / Mav / yourself at that time and ended up thinking Grav or SS are both decent lynches while you and Mav are probably not. Though that was a conclusion I considered to be weak. I didn't feel comfortable to push a lynch completly based on my gut read / reaction on how I think you or Mav would have react as mafia instead. On September 10 2012 06:06 Toadesstern wrote: [...] About other Mafiareads: Not much right now. We've already got 2 flipped mafias and there're not going to be 191518696 more mafias in this game. I'm still standing by my point that either Grush or Shady has to be mafia. They're both giving me a hard time and everytime I want to get something going on Grush, Shady gets in the thread saying something that just screams "LYNCH ME" and vice verca. So I'm kind of having a hard time on those two. I'm still suspicious of S&B but I don't really want to go into details about him for a reason. That was probably the worst post I ever did. Quite funny noone considered that to be something except for one guy (don't know who it was) who considered it to be a mafiatreat (lol I wouldn't post like that as mafia) for not explaining. That's basicly the reason I backpaddled to Assassin because I was forced to explain it somehow. But as mentioned, backpaddling to Assassin was quite convenient as an intermediate step to whatever the the 2nd track would have made me think. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 15 2012 23:36 Kreb wrote: @Toad 1&2: Had you been town, these are obviously nothing, and your reasoning is correct. But these two are kind of adding up to the whole picture to me. Alone, they are nothing. 3&4: Ok, my wording of you being "pushy" was probably bad wording on my part. And you focus heavily on me being contradictory (which, if you want to interpret the word pushy in the way you did, theres reason within your claim that I indeed was). But the fact still stands that the way you acted those two nights are very different. And the asking around what other people think (4) is to me very much not your style (see the sentences about will). That, you still havent attempted to explain. 5: Its still an awful lot of switching. And we have this: It explains that you are willing to switch off MMToss, but it doesnt explain why you are willing to. Also, I dont see why you'd consider voting on SS unless you at least have an equal scumread on SS as you did on Gravan. If you did have such a scum read, you have explained why (again, why is the key word) you were willing to vote swtich. If you did not have that scum read, you shouldnt have considered SS at all and stayed on Gravan. 6: It was my weakest point probably. And quite frankly your reply to it doesnt really relate to my point six (and you cant really defend yourself against it either, since it was mostly just me going "it seems pretty strange he got that post together at that time so fast"). About what you said in the defense though: Nothing of what you claim you did would be impossible to do as mafia in preparation for later defense. And your point about what happened N1 (which as I said have nothing to do with my point 6) I have a bit of a hard time to relate to since I wasnt there at the time. And about you not planting breadcrumbs as mafia, thats a null-read from my PoV. If someone I trust as town can confirm it, I'll take it into account. 7: Agreed its confirmation bias. Not one of my better points. Just another one of those "this does fit a bit too well" moments. Maybe I shouldnt have mentioned 6 and 7, but as 1&2 neither of them are strong at all on their own, but together they make something, so I added them. And quite frankly I dont think you can defend yourself against 6 or 7 so you probably shouldnt bother. Blame my paranoia would make more sense (since if I'm all wrong in all of this, I will be the first to admit that my paranoia totally got me on the wrong track). 8: You totally didnt reply to my point at all. My point was about you painting yourself as average town player at a time when we should be asked why you arent dead (being vet and all). The timing of that was VERY telling and nothing you wrote relates to that at all. As for the Z-Boson situation (why is this on my point 8 lol?), you yourself said you're awesome as mafia. Would you really say you, supposing you are mafia, are unable to make the read Boson was bluffing and then call for the kill on him to clear you? As someone who claimed to be awesome as mafia, dont you agree you should be able to make that call? I have that faith in someone making such a claim at least. 9: Cant really reply to that one. I think its strange you tell where trackers should go when you're the tracker. You say you did it to not look blue. Thats possible. Up to everyone to decide whether they believe you or not I guess. Personally im very sceptical. I'm going to answer the ones we disagree about. There's really no point in talking about 1,2,6,7,9 right? 3,4 ) Yeah it was different because I wasn't anywhere near as comfortable picking the right lynch as I was the day before that. However you're saying my actions in 3) are weird and therefore I'm scummy and my actions in 4) are weird, therefore I'm scummy while they're completely contradicting arguments. Let's put it this way: Yes I wasn't as pushy yesterday. If you consider that a scumtreat I can't really say something to that other than that I didn't feel comfortable deciding the lynch target myself as I had a very hard time distinguishing between those reads and figure out who's the best / word lynch imo. The reasons I didn't want MMToss and Mav lynched are all minor reactions I saw. 5) Pretty much my last sentence I just wrote The reasons I didn't want MMToss and Mav lynched are all minor reactions I saw. . I explained it a little but those things are awfully hard to explain. I'm pretty sure I said somewhere along the lines that I did not think MMtoss would attack me the way he did about Z-Bosons 97% confirmed post as mafia because mafia usually wants to end up being on the right side and saying "sup guys, Boson is right, Toad is totally town" is an easy way to get towncred for mafia (assuming I'm town, which I myself know to be true). Mav looked weird due to the voting tally I quoted.SS was simply the only guy who had votes besides Gravan if you exclude MMToss and Mav. I also think I mentioned Shady quite some time over the last couple of days as possible mafia and never retracted that at all. 8) You're kind of asking me "why did mafia not shoot you". How am I supposed to know that. I mentioned the Z-Boson situation because that's an easy explanation for one of the nights. The first night I obviously didn't get shot because they prioritised BC and BM24. Ever after that we had an awful lot of talk about a medic because everyone assumed there was one for sure, so as mentioned they probably tried to get safe kills rather than vet kills when they were already low on numbers after losing 2 mafias d1/n1. But again, I have no clue. How am I supposed to know why mafia did or did not shoot me. It's just a guess and I can't answer that question. | ||
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On September 16 2012 00:17 Bill Murray wrote: Toad, in both scenarios, who are your reads for scum? I don't think it's 3 mafias left. I think Ottox and BC were right to assume 5 mafias. You usually have 6 mafias in a 30 player game. 5 mafias makes perfect sense in a 25 (26) player game. Additionally we may or may not have Assassins. If we don't have Assassins they don't interfere with that because they don't exist. If we have Assassins those are probably considered town favoring because they can soak up mafia KP and the only way to get killed is by lynch => they'll try not to get lynched while they don't care about whether mafia or town gets lynched. That being said I'd say 6 mafias total is really unlikely. ShadySands is my top mafia read followed by a bunch of people who are a about equally scummy. Like Gravan. Unlike yesterday I've got a bunch of decent townreads I don't want to get into detail today for obvious reasons. Oh and @MMToss: I actually did not consider the option you mentioned. That could be the case but yeah I'll leave it with that. | ||
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On September 16 2012 00:41 Bill Murray wrote: Toad is scum vig Toad killed GK with scum vig powers, hoping watcher/tracker would confirm him you know what? Screw this. That's just ridiculous. I'm not going to answer stuff like that. If you think I'm mafia and you've still got your 2nd bullet (whoever the 2nd vig is) shoot me end let's get over with this. Sometimes you just have to shove someones green/blue head into peoples faces to show them how wrong they are and if people consider something like that there's really no point in arguing at all. That way you can at least get down to lynching Shady Sands tomorrow without much of a "well I think Toad is mafia and not SS" vs "yeah and I think Shady is the better lynch" fuss. That way you at least got a decent chance tomorrow. | ||
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No you probably don't because you're still not reading the thread. Unless of course you're saying I'm scummy because unlike the other days I didn't put myself into a leader position telling people what to do. Yeah because I wasn't sure what to do that day. But I guess that's a mafiatreat nowadays. I still posted way more than you (for example). The case revolving around the soft defense of SnB is either 100% accurate (if you don't believe my claim) or it is 100% wrong (if you believe my claim) because if it's the latter one it's perfectly explained. There's pretty much nothing inbetween. If the S&B "thing" is all there is about me it comes down to wether or not you believe me. But of course you're telling people we should ignore that part and just lynch me because I didn't want to lynch S&B although I explained it perfectly. Just lynch this guy tomorrow pretty please. | ||
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On September 16 2012 05:04 Toadesstern wrote: you realize that I told you guys 24hours in advance that I'm not going to be around the final hours of the lynch and won't make it for the deadline at least 3 times? No you probably don't because you're still not reading the thread. Unless of course you're saying I'm scummy because unlike the other days I didn't put myself into a leader position telling people what to do. Yeah because I wasn't sure what to do that day. But I guess that's a mafiatreat nowadays. I still posted way more than you (for example). The case revolving around the soft defense of SnB is either 100% accurate (if you don't believe my claim) or it is 100% wrong (if you believe my claim) because if it's the latter one it's perfectly explained. There's pretty much nothing inbetween. If the S&B "thing" is all there is about me it comes down to wether or not you believe me. But of course you're telling people we should ignore that part and just lynch me because I didn't want to lynch S&B although I explained it perfectly. Just lynch this guy tomorrow pretty please. EBWOP That was obviously directed at Shady Sands. | ||
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On September 16 2012 06:16 Shady Sands wrote: I read through the filters of Rewok, ShiaoPi, et al, and didn't find enough to push any of them into scum territory. I also looked through BM's filter and I found him conspicuously absent during the SnB wagon. He didn't even mention SnB until after the lynch was over. All he did was pressure Hopeless1der, who, as we know, dropped the hammer on SnB and should be considered town. While it doesn't push my read on him clearly into scum territory, it is the first clear read he's given out all game long, since the rest of his filter consists of trolling. Hence, ##FoS Bill Murray You consider me to be mafia. If that's the case: Why should I die tonight? I'm not going to kill myself if I'm mafia. Unless of course you believe my claim is true and there really is a 2nd vig, which you just told me a couple of hours ago is almost impossible according to you. So if there's no 2nd vig and I'm mafia, how am I supposed to die tonight? | ||
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My bad, I didn't realize you're actually believing me but at the same time thinking I'm mafia who's making up bullshit. | ||
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Apparently the chances are not good because people thought I'm mafia once I started to derail the thread on purpose so town won't win by a rockslide after the n1 disaster :p Anyways, had to take my chances and I shot Graven. Let's hope I get an bullseye :p | ||
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Ultimately that almost got me lynched although I still played with a town mindset (just a gonzaw-style town mindset). So yeah, kind of saw myself to do a Palmar (from AC) although I didn't want to | ||
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On September 24 2012 07:24 Toadesstern wrote: btw sorry at everyone for playing 140% hypno-toad. I totally intended my role to be played like a town aligned survivor and just not get lynched while randomly checking people and hoping the other assassin just gets lynched. And I really did that early on but after n1 was over (so starting something like 2nd half of d2 or something like that) I thought I had to make this game as impossible to scumhunt for town as possible or town will just crush mafia before I get the chance to win. Ultimately that almost got me lynched although I still played with a town mindset (just a gonzaw-style town mindset). So yeah, kind of saw myself forced to do a Palmar (from AC) although I didn't want to EBWOP, we're allowed to edit every post-game, right? :p Btw I really took a shot n1 and so did sloOsh I think. Most pro-town 3rd parties EVER. | ||
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On September 24 2012 07:28 Z-BosoN wrote: Reading the scum qt, my mad hatter idea was not that bad actually As I had suspected, I was gonna get shot anyways. At least my death would confirm toad town/assassin, and in case a medic did indeed save toad, I would have gotten saved. except for the fact that people did not understand and pressed for my lynch for some reason nevertheless lol. I was so scared when you claimed mad hatter and just played cool while going "shitshitshit, if he really blows up I'm confirmed assassin" in my room :p No way in hell would I have shot you as mafia even though I did those "yeah that's a fake" posts. | ||
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On September 24 2012 07:33 marvellosity wrote: you should really have found sloosh. No idea how you didn't. I had a timestap mistake. I had him down as "can't be assassin" because he was one of the three guys nonstop asking "why is Toad still alive?" and I thought that post was 2 days ago when in fact it was only 1 day ago. If it was 2 days ago I figured I'd be already dead if sloOsh really was 3rd party so I never considered him until the very last moment and tossed a coin between 3 guys: sloOsh, the guy I shot and someone else who had a shitton of Assassin mentions in his filter while the other 8 or 9 guys never mentioned the Assassin role once. So yeah, that's why I never considered him. | ||
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On September 24 2012 13:37 strongandbig wrote: lynching me wasn't a team decision or anything. imallinson just did it while I was off playing dota, and I'm still not sure why he did. and re the fake nosy neighbor claim, claiming like that is "super dumb" in an open setup where it is actually verifiable. If you're going to do it at all it should only be done either in games where self-aware millers are confirmed to exist or in games with a closed setup like deathnote, where I had just done the exact same thing but where I knew that the hosts wouldn't tell anyone how the miller mechanic worked or even whether there was one. There's absolutely nothing wrong with doing the following via pm: "sup Palmar, your OP doesn't exactly state it but something in there *include whatever reason here* makes me think the millers/NNs are self-aware. Is that true? I'm kind of considering to claim that" "no dude they're not" "kk thanks, almost claimed NN! :p" /// Edit: I mean even if Palmar answers with bullshit like "can't tell you that" that means that if someone else asks the same question they won't get confirmation either which means you're good to go. /// I really don't get it how something like we had this game can happen. Matt's definitely the new VE when it comes to claiming I guess. | ||
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On September 24 2012 21:57 marvellosity wrote: Matt has a splendid Normal resumé with LI and LVII  you know what I was referring to sweetie | ||
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DUDE matt, what are you doing with the games I thought I already won when I'm playing them. Edit: Wasn't Matt also the Pikachu in PTP that ended up shooting me with a rnd-23 roll and killed me n1 with that bullshit? Wtf my mind is blown right now. | ||
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On September 25 2012 00:48 marvellosity wrote: Hey, you won as mafia at lylo. Doesn't seem too shabby to me. With regards to you specifically, there were a couple of things that you could improve on: 1) you posted masses at the beginning, and then your posting dropped off markedly. Private life aside, this is a pretty big tell (BloodyC0bbler had you pegged as scum because of this) 2) At some point you said you were too lazy to make a case on someone. This is a tell for you particularly, because in that Newbie game you were the precise opposite of lazy as town with GK + co. most people actually treat the 2nd one as a major towntell because most mafias (especially new ones) are to scared to say something like that and they HAVE to be aware of what they're posting whereas townies sometimes (or "all the time", pick accordingly) post without thinking for a second. So most people really treat it as 1) unlikely a mafia would post that although it's obviously a flawed argument 2) likely a townie would post that No idea how he played in his last game though I wouldn't say that post was bad at all. Everyone changes something pretty much every game. It's never about whether or not something is right or wrong, it's just about what people make of it and in this case most people usually take it as a towntell. For some reason people also think talking about townreads is something "good" or talking nonstop about your reads in general (remember that one big list post with reads about everyone that basicly said "everyone's a null for me"? That was awful and I would have insta-vigged him as a townie day-vig) but that's another topic :p | ||
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On September 25 2012 00:59 DarthPunk wrote: hmm. I don't want to Sacrifice my town game for my scum game. I guess I just have to suck it up and do the hard work if I want to be any good at this. But yeah. Scum is way harder to play then town. For me at least. don't try to find scum as mafia, that's not possible and people will realize that. Try to find scummy behavior as mafia. Townies play scummy all the time. That requires reading though, which is the hardest part of playing mafia I guess. You know you don't have to figure people out after all so getting motivated really is harder than getting motivated as a townie. | ||
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On September 25 2012 01:08 DarthPunk wrote: That is good advice. Thanks. I tend to agree with you that it is harder to be motivated as scum. But I could totally just find scummy townies instead of trying to fake it, or just not really scum hunt at all like I did this game. Yeah as mentioned: This game had a shitton of townies who played scummy like crazy and getting rid of those instead of lynching vets like I (obviously) wanted would have been way better for town but it would have also given you a lot of oppertunities to just blend in there pointing at 2 or 3 townies, pointing out a bunch of mistakes / bad play, mix in one of your allies who plays alike and end in "there's no way those 4 people are posting like this as town. That's too many inconsistencies to be random-(bad)luck" and you're good to go. Obviously that's very basic advice and if you post like that you're going to get lynched but it's okay as a roadmap and you can change things up or make it fancy as you go, but that's the basic idea. On September 25 2012 01:17 marvellosity wrote: Yeah, I think there are few people who genuinely really enjoy playing scum. People like VE, Ace. Maybe wbg? I'm sure a couple of others. I'm pretty ok at scum but I waaaay prefer playing town. screw you. I'm not in that list? What's wrong with you | ||
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It was like 10 minutes in the game and I vote sloOsh out of nowhere who ended up being the other Assassin. Must have looked pretty fishy for Assassin-#1 to vote Assassin-#2 within a couple of minutes :p Besides that, that opening was awesome. Literally the best opening I ever saw. Noone was talking about set-up bullshit and everyone was talking about the game instead. Quickest start to a game ever. | ||
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