EPTOn September 15 2012 07:32 Hopeless1der wrote:
Can I has a cookie?
Can I has a cookie?
You get biggest cookie. But please don't get lazy I can't do all the work.
TL Mafia LVII - Page 111
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slOosh
3291 Posts
You get biggest cookie. But please don't get lazy I can't do all the work. | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
On September 15 2012 07:38 slOosh wrote: You get biggest cookie. But please don't get lazy I can't do all the work. Already ate it. Sorry. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On September 13 2012 12:39 slOosh wrote: Hey Grush, what is your current read of strongandbig & Toad? Funny how this keeps coming up. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On September 15 2012 07:51 grush57 wrote: Hmm, the way he handled the auto confirm is a bit suspicous, and he like soft attacked Toad, so maybe botha re scum. Not too sure if I'm understanding correctly. Could you post the quotes that show this and specify the auto confirm thing a bit more? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On September 15 2012 07:52 Kreb wrote: S&B was buddying Toad a bit at the start though. Not sure why you'd buddy a mafia teammate.... Easy / planned dialogue, feigning contribution, avoiding connections for late game etc. Gotta look at what he is trying to achieve with it. Alright I think this is my last post of the night. Please don't let thread die. Otherwise we might repeat the D1 lynch -> D2 / D3 mislynch business again. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Based on this assassin read, Toad has used this as an excuse for himself to not pressure S&B or even mention him in the thread. + Show Spoiler [evidence] + On September 11 2012 01:21 Toadesstern wrote: Let's be honest here: I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one. So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. On September 13 2012 19:57 Toadesstern wrote: I said either BM or Foru are mafia later on. Something like d2, n2 or d3 I guess? So that one would be the more updated read on BM but not sure if that still holds. It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2. Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan? That's more than three times over the past 2 votecycles. During (and before) those 2 votecycles, Toad was pushing BKE, Z-Boson, and Forumite, all of whom flipped town or blue. Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Notice a pattern? They're all dead. TLDR: Toad has soft-defended S&B for awhile, pushed three straight townies for lynches, and anyone who made substantive cases on him has been NK'd. Now onto my post about S&B. I made that in the heat of the moment in my effort to get Gravan lynched. In retrospect, it looks scummy and stupid. That being said, I misread what S&B wrote about Gravan--I thought he was agreeing that Gravan was scum, when it is apparent now that S&B was actually soft-defending him. Since I thought at the time that Gravan was scum, anyone who came out before a lynch was inevitable on Gravan and made noises about lynching him earned town points in my book. Now that S&B has flipped scum, I retract that and I think Gravan is just a bad town who other scum tried to latch upon. Grav's behavior, in particular, over the past few hours has been very townie and returns my read on him to null. I have a few other players who look scummy to me: Rewok ShiaoPi Mementoss DarthPunk I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost. Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
## Vote Toadesstern | ||
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Quatol
Burkina Faso57 Posts
On September 15 2012 08:09 Shady Sands wrote: Just to make this clear: ## Vote Toadesstern It's night time. Use your noggin. | ||
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Gravan
59 Posts
On September 15 2012 08:06 Shady Sands wrote: In light of the S&B flip, I think Toad is scum, because Toad has continually tried to paint S&B as an assassin. Based on this assassin read, Toad has used this as an excuse for himself to not pressure S&B or even mention him in the thread. + Show Spoiler [evidence] + On September 11 2012 01:21 Toadesstern wrote: Let's be honest here: I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one. So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. On September 13 2012 19:57 Toadesstern wrote: I said either BM or Foru are mafia later on. Something like d2, n2 or d3 I guess? So that one would be the more updated read on BM but not sure if that still holds. It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2. Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's more than three times over the past 2 votecycles. During (and before) those 2 votecycles, Toad was pushing BKE, Z-Boson, and Forumite, all of whom flipped town or blue. Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Notice a pattern? They're all dead. TLDR: Toad has soft-defended S&B for awhile, pushed three straight townies for lynches, and anyone who made substantive cases on him has been NK'd. Now onto my post about S&B. I made that in the heat of the moment in my effort to get Gravan lynched. In retrospect, it looks scummy and stupid. That being said, I misread what S&B wrote about Gravan--I thought he was agreeing that Gravan was scum, when it is apparent now that S&B was actually soft-defending him. Since I thought at the time that Gravan was scum, anyone who came out before a lynch was inevitable on Gravan and made noises about lynching him earned town points in my book. Now that S&B has flipped scum, I retract that and I think Gravan is just a bad town who other scum tried to latch upon. Grav's behavior, in particular, over the past few hours has been very townie and returns my read on him to null. I have a few other players who look scummy to me: Rewok ShiaoPi Mementoss DarthPunk I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost. Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der. This really feels like scummy backtracking to me. Nothing that you used against me in your 'case' has changed. You haven't interacted with my defending myself at all - I think that you were hoping that by ignorning it i would get lynched anyway. I really think you are trying to sweep your previous actions and suspicions under the rug, and changing them to whatever is convienent at the time. Other people have voiced some opinions on toad, so you are latchig right on. | ||
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On September 15 2012 08:22 Gravan wrote: This really feels like scummy backtracking to me. Nothing that you used against me in your 'case' has changed. You haven't interacted with my defending myself at all - I think that you were hoping that by ignorning it i would get lynched anyway. I really think you are trying to sweep your previous actions and suspicions under the rug, and changing them to whatever is convienent at the time. Other people have voiced some opinions on toad, so you are latchig right on. Grav, read page 109 and 110. I said the S&B flip makes Toad and me look bad miles before anyone else started talking about Toad. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. Is that really so? I thought it hosts were randoming most of the time... | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
On September 15 2012 08:06 Shady Sands wrote: In light of the S&B flip, I think Toad is scum, because Toad has continually tried to paint S&B as an assassin. Based on this assassin read, Toad has used this as an excuse for himself to not pressure S&B or even mention him in the thread. + Show Spoiler [evidence] + On September 11 2012 01:21 Toadesstern wrote: Let's be honest here: I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one. So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. On September 13 2012 19:57 Toadesstern wrote: I said either BM or Foru are mafia later on. Something like d2, n2 or d3 I guess? So that one would be the more updated read on BM but not sure if that still holds. It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2. Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's more than three times over the past 2 votecycles. During (and before) those 2 votecycles, Toad was pushing BKE, Z-Boson, and Forumite, all of whom flipped town or blue. Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Notice a pattern? They're all dead. TLDR: Toad has soft-defended S&B for awhile, pushed three straight townies for lynches, and anyone who made substantive cases on him has been NK'd. Now onto my post about S&B. I made that in the heat of the moment in my effort to get Gravan lynched. In retrospect, it looks scummy and stupid. That being said, I misread what S&B wrote about Gravan--I thought he was agreeing that Gravan was scum, when it is apparent now that S&B was actually soft-defending him. Since I thought at the time that Gravan was scum, anyone who came out before a lynch was inevitable on Gravan and made noises about lynching him earned town points in my book. Now that S&B has flipped scum, I retract that and I think Gravan is just a bad town who other scum tried to latch upon. Grav's behavior, in particular, over the past few hours has been very townie and returns my read on him to null. I have a few other players who look scummy to me: Rewok ShiaoPi Mementoss DarthPunk I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost. Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der. I'd like you to explain why I look scummy, instead of just taking random names out of a hat. thanks | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
On September 15 2012 02:25 Mementoss wrote: How do you have a townread on SnB let alone a STRONG townread, wtf, this guy hasn't done shit all game. On September 15 2012 03:06 Mementoss wrote: Unbury The only person I would be willing to vote other than Mav today would be SnB. Everything slo0sh said is exactly how I felt reading everything SnB said this game. The fact that shady sands not only had a town read without reason on SnB but a STRONG town read on SnB and completely ignored my question of why or what evidence made him believe this, is super scummy. It's like he just said it to sway peoples mind and to say it, without having any reasoning whatsoever. Why would town need to try to force the lynch for the next day continuontly and say they have a strong town read without evidence on someone who had barely any votes at all at the time. On September 14 2012 05:53 Mementoss wrote: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ lets decide the lynch for tomorrow, cause thats helpful and creates discussion >_> | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
Of course there is the chance he expected someone else to switch onto SnB last minute and he wanted to look good, but I doubt this, cause he coulda sheeped onto Gravan instead. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I'm a tracker. That's the reason I changed my reads sometimes a bit without much of explaining and there's some interesting stuff. First things first: Checks are in that order:
There's a couple interesting parts here, the most interesting part certainly is the BM24 check because pretty much everyone assumes that he got bombed. I checked him n1. If he really was bombed I'd be dead. I'm not dead. That's the reason I wanted BKE dead so much after his claim of watching BC because I as well thought the bomber used his ability. That's not the case unless BKE lied and there's no reason for him to lie. What that means is that we've got a 2nd vig somewhere, possibly a town vig but it could also be a mafia vig. BC was killed by mafia KP BM24 was killed by mafia KP (most likely, could be the 2nd vig as well but I'd doubt that) GK was 100% killed by town vig Ottox was killed by either a town vig or a mafia vig who was scared of being tracked so that he could claim "town vig who shot Ottox like everyone said" BM24 returned visting imallinson but that hardly matters as BM24 was a NN. Btw some posts I did: On September 07 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: I'm actually looking suspicious considering BlackMamba24s flip I guess... I'd also got a bunch of assumptions about the set-up now that we have seen not a single blue flip but the suicide bomber flipped. I guess not talking about that is best though. But all that makes me want to lynch Forumite even more and yeah I'd say he's the way to go for today considering that Ottox and Dr.H are dead. Also I said this one for a reason: On September 13 2012 19:37 Toadesstern wrote: Oh I also don't think there's a medic. Should have probably told you about that earlier considering Z-bosons entire plan was based on being saved by the medic. Didn't think about that in time  The reason we assumed there was a medic to begin with was that we thought a medic saved someone n1 because we thought there was KP missing. There was no KP missing therefore I said this, again the only way for this to be true is knowledge that the suicidebomber did not use his ability. I never told you guys because telling you that would have required claiming and it was no important information. There could still be a medic out there for all I know, it's just not necessary as we suspected it to be earlier on. There was no reason to claim at all so I just ignored it. No Drawbacks from everyone thinking "well that probably means we've got a medic" (after all mafia shooting Assassin could be true as well, so the logic was flawed to begin with) No gains from telling people that I visited BM24 other than explaining why I wanted BKE dead so much (although I tried to make it sound reasonable because I didn't want to look like a blue). But I tried to get him lynched without claiming obviously. I would have claimed that day if we would have needed more votes on BKE, Foru returned visiting noone and I had a mafia read on him. Which made it all a little hard but I was still convinced in my read, so I sticked with it S&B also returned visiting noone. At that point I was kind of frustrated after the failure with Foru and left him be, wanted to check him today again to see if he was still visiting noone (VT) or ended up visiting someone (mafia). Again, same reasoning for BM24: I said I think he's Assassin because I didn't want him lynched before getting a 2nd track on him. With (probably) 3 mafia left there's only a 1/3 chance for him to be mafia if I consider my read to be right because 2 out of 3 mafias have to deliver a kill so I considered it quite likely that he's actually just a VT and my read was wrong. Saying I'd consider him to be mafia before the end of the night and changing it to a townread would have been weird and a blueslip, so I told people that I think he's an Assassin as a way out of it without looking to drastic of a change of mind because that would have been a blue-slip and I would have been killed. I did not want him to be lynched because of that. I called him Assassin as an intermediate stage to calling him town the next day if the track would have returned VT again. So yeah I was trying not to look like a blue. Answering some things (it's 2:30 am, want to go to bed soon so it's only one, big post): + Show Spoiler [Shady Sands] + On September 15 2012 08:06 Shady Sands wrote: In light of the S&B flip, I think Toad is scum, because Toad has continually tried to paint S&B as an assassin. Based on this assassin read, Toad has used this as an excuse for himself to not pressure S&B or even mention him in the thread. + Show Spoiler [evidence] + On September 11 2012 01:21 Toadesstern wrote: Let's be honest here: I think if we lynch into one of either Forumite, S&B, BM or Z-Boson we're going to hit "not-townie" all the way. That's the reason I didn't want to talk about S&B because I suspected him to be an Assassin (you're welcome \o/ ). If BM is Mafia Foru's got to be an Assassin (again, you're welcome \o/ ) and isn't actually mafia himself. Foru basicly claimed he's playing cautious on purpose so that fits the Assassin as well. Z-Boson and BM have some weird connection this day. I really don't like how Boson gets in here telling people BM is confirmed because of the blue thing, on top of that he instantly finds another breadcrumb BM apparently did and the knowledge BM had about austin is supposed to make him somehow town when there's no way mafia would have shot a vig n1, even if they knew about one. So if you take them all apart I'd be all up for lynching Forumite today. If we're considering them as a whole I'd rather lynch Z-Boson. I mentioned S&B as well but as I said, he's probably Assassin so noone should care about him right now unless we see another 3rd party flip and he's still kicking. On September 13 2012 19:57 Toadesstern wrote: I said either BM or Foru are mafia later on. Something like d2, n2 or d3 I guess? So that one would be the more updated read on BM but not sure if that still holds. It was based on the "there has to be a mafia vet" assumption and forumite flipping green (=neither red nor black) pretty much destroyed that, or at least it now has an interesting twist to it: As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. If that's the case we obviously don't have a mafia within those 2. If we don't have Assassins to begin with we probably still have a mafia within those 2. Not sure I want to take that gamble today. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's more than three times over the past 2 votecycles. During (and before) those 2 votecycles, Toad was pushing BKE, Z-Boson, and Forumite, all of whom flipped town or blue. Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Notice a pattern? They're all dead. TLDR: Toad has soft-defended S&B for awhile, pushed three straight townies for lynches, and anyone who made substantive cases on him has been NK'd. Now onto my post about S&B. I made that in the heat of the moment in my effort to get Gravan lynched. In retrospect, it looks scummy and stupid. That being said, I misread what S&B wrote about Gravan--I thought he was agreeing that Gravan was scum, when it is apparent now that S&B was actually soft-defending him. Since I thought at the time that Gravan was scum, anyone who came out before a lynch was inevitable on Gravan and made noises about lynching him earned town points in my book. Now that S&B has flipped scum, I retract that and I think Gravan is just a bad town who other scum tried to latch upon. Grav's behavior, in particular, over the past few hours has been very townie and returns my read on him to null. I have a few other players who look scummy to me: Rewok ShiaoPi Mementoss DarthPunk I'm going to be looking through their filters and will get something out before the daypost. Final note: in case this isn't obvious already, S&B lynch should serve as strong town-tells for Sloosh and Hopeless1der. That's one big pile of bullshit. I explained why I said he's an assassin although you obviously couldn't know about that. Then shortly before he leaves, he tries to narrow town's options to anyone but S&B. That's a lie, you even quoted it. I said I want Gravan or you lynched. That's not "anyone but S&B" although frankly speaking if you had asked I would have probably said anyone but S&B because of my VT read on him. But that's not the point, you're making something up. Why is that Shady Sands? I would understand it if you had said "anyone but Mav" because Mav, Gravan and you were the only 3 people who had votes, so I basicly said I don't want to lynch Mav. Why is "anyone but S&B" and not "anyone but Mav" when I say 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan? I was pushing BKE because I considered him a fakeclaimed, just like I considered Matt to be a fakeclaimer because I was fairly certain the suicide bomber used his ability at that time. I think everyone was and probably before my claim everyone in here still thought that's what happened. So you'll certainty agree that that consideration of mine made sense, don't you? Furthermore, look at who has questioned Toad over the game: BKE Hapa Z-Boson Are you mispresenting things on purpose?
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