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On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote:
At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight.
Why is it suspicious that I am questioning archrun? I clearly expressed my reasons for doing so.
On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate.
Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight.
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On August 18 2012 07:43 DarthPunk wrote:In case I die my top scum reads are ThrawnShady was an obvious counter wagon that sprang up very quickly and with the kind of momentum that comes from scum coordinating to push a mislynch on someone. He was also the top scumread of now townie shady sands and was very active in pushing the shady mislynch. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 06:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight. He is now trying to paint Archrum who didn't vote for the shady mislynch as a more likely suspect than those who were influential in orchestrating the counter wagon on shady. Namely himself and Your Harry. My second Scum read is Your Harry The half hearted and altogether too late masquerade to alter his vote to Archun seems like an rather obvious attempt to distance himself from the shady mislynch and to set up a mislynch the following day. He is guilty of the exact thing that he accuses Archun of and yet the way he is going about it is far more suspicious. He also maintained a vote buffer on shady sands throughout the voting cycle and based it on some interplay with Thrawn. Although he says only one townie had to switch to Thrawn two actually did The thing that makes me very suspicious of these two is that they are now trying to paint themselves, two of the people who lead the obvious counter wagon on shady as being confirmed town after shady's flip and are now obviously trying to set up another lynch on someone whom suspected thrawn on a questionable interpretation of a single post for a reason that they are both now far more guilty of. I will post far more detailed discussion on both these players if I live. However If I die. Town, please seriously consider lynching Your Harry and Thrawn ASAP @Your Harry and Thrawn: Yes I understand what you are saying about Archun. However I don't buy your case or your interpretation of the post it is based on.
So you're saying I should be investigating myself and yourharry instead of archrun?
I'm not sure what to make of yourharry. He has flip flopped more than anyone else throughout the entire D1, and I think he is reading too much into archun's post where archrun said "either shady or thrawn is scum." It is a strange thing to say, especially without including the option that both shady and I could be town, but for yourharry to call it "clearly scum motivated" is a little unjustified. My (very weak) read on him is that he is town, but it is a weak read because of how often he flip-flopped on his reads and votes during D1.
Just to clarify to darthpunk: My suspicion of Archrun is not based on his 'lynch thrawn if shady is town' post. Yes it's a weird post, but it isn't one of my main reasons for going through his filter and I never said it was.
The town has not been active at all since shady's lynch. All you others need to say something because you're making this more difficult than it should be.
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On August 18 2012 08:26 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 08:17 thrawn2112 wrote:
So you're saying I should be investigating myself and yourharry instead of archrun? No. I am not saying you should investigate yourself. Is that what you genuinely got out of my post?
No I do not think that you think that town thrawn should investigate to determine if thrawn is town or scum lol. But you seem to think that I and harry are most deserving of suspicion, and my post was an attempt to show why I, as town thrawn, am investigating archrun. I explained my read on yourharry, and the 'investigate myself' comment was a (probably lame) attempt at humor.
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On August 18 2012 08:59 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 08:44 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 08:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
No I do not think that you think that town thrawn should investigate to determine if thrawn is town or scum lol. But you seem to think that I and harry are most deserving of suspicion, and my post was an attempt to show why I, as town thrawn, am investigating archrun. Yep, which is why the post was not really directed at you. Because I think you may be scum. Why are you constantly addressing yourself as town thrawn? You seem pretty desperate to establish your townieness. Or perhaps as Scum Thrawn you need to constantly think about what your towny alter ego would be doing and that is coming out in your posting. Sounds somewhat similar to zork from XXII.
You always describe my motivations as how they make sense to scum thrawn, I am trying to get you to see how they are more reasonable coming from town thrawn.
There have been quite a lot of things said about me and it will take a good amount of time to write up a post. Expect one in the next couple hours.
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Lets look at the events that have happened during D1/N1
Shady was lynched and flipped town
Archrun was killed and flipped town
Mkfuba was killed and flipped town
Goodkarma and Darthpunk both claim to have very strong reads on me as scum. Their reasoning is that I was pushing for shady and archun to be lynched, and both of them flipped town.
Mkfuba wrote a very long post on why he had a town read on me:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote:Trying to get into school is running me ragged, so this will be my only post for the moment. If anyone has specific questions they'd like me to answer, let me know so I can get to those as soon as possible (preferably before the lynch). Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. Show nested quote +I'm not sure I'm getting why you think this is scummy, could you explain? His posts since that point are what caused me to be suspicious of him, but I never quite understood the reasoning behind your initial interrogation. This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point. 3) Show nested quote +At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game. 4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on.
Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were.
On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote:
Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum.
Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town.
Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town?
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On August 18 2012 10:22 YourHarry wrote:
thrawn, do you think there is SK? quick question, yes or no?
I don't think so. My reasoning is that mkfuba was killed fore being my strongest defender, and I killed Archrun. If there is a Sk he chose not to kill, which doesn't make sense because if I was SK I would choose to kill someone every night.
No, based on the events of N1 I don't think there is an SK.
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On August 18 2012 10:28 Solarsail wrote:
The Archrun death completely validates gk's post. I was already wavering on Thrawn yesterday early on and Ochrow's most recent post (before GK even said anything)
I'm less convinced on YourHarry since there is no direct link and I had a soft town read from yesterday, but there's two good candidates right there.
Lol Thrawn your vigilante claim is ridiculous. Vigilantes do not reveal that they are vigilantes over such a trivial matter as defending themselves, as the role is so powerful that scum have no choice but to kill you immediately.
##Vote: Thrawn
##FoS: Ochrow
Why would I have a reason to not reveal myself as Vig? After using my 1 bullet my role is worthless and I have nothing to gain from hiding it. Therefore claiming to defend myself is not ridiculous, because I have no reason to keep it a secret anymore.
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On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote:-snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote:
Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum.
Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town.
Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason  . ##Vote: thrawn2112And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow##FoS: YourHarryI'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum.
Did you read all of my post? You didn't mention anything about the arguments I made concerning mkfuba.
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Darthpunk:
Right before I claimed vig I read the "General Guide to Mafia." This is what I read:
"Claiming that you shot player X as a vig after the fact is usually a good claim if you have no shots left, especially if you hit a red, as you bring new information to the table that the mafia cannot punish."
The guide takes a pretty strong stance against role claiming, with the exception of Vigilante.
You say that my argument concerning mkfuba is wifom. However I think it provides a very strong reason why I wouldn't kill mkfuba as scum thrawn. He was the MOST convinced that I was town, and wrote a very long argument as to why he believed so. He had the strongest town read on me, and was killed. I cannot conceive of any possible mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town.
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I'm going to take a break from reading this thread. I'm not going to become a lurker, I just need several hours of time off. I was awake and posting for pretty much all of the 2nd half of day 2 and I stayed up for more than 24 hours to do so. I've only slept a few hours since then and I'm becoming frustrated. I'm going to go try to get some sleep and not think about this game for awhile.
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One last post
On August 18 2012 10:52 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:28 YourHarry wrote:EDBWOP: I just read your post. I believe you. I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway. Of course YOUwould be the one to see this weak as shit breadcrumb. If it is even a breadcrumb. Of course YOU would Immediately accept him to be vig without any discussion whatsoever.
You're right, it wasn't a breadcrumb.
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On August 18 2012 12:26 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP: But, unless there is a counter claim on vigilante, why don't we wait and see how many night kills there are tomorrow?
I don't think anyone will agree to this.
The people that are calling me scum are also calling you scum and will say that you being scum, are presenting this plan with which you intend to manipulate the results (by not using a mafia kill) to convince everyone that I'm not your scum buddy.
Even if people agree to this I'm not sure how I'd feel about the basis for me being assumed a town player to be based on what could be a setup created by people who are calling you scum.
wifom everywhere..... this thread is a big giant wifom circlejerk at the moment. people including myself are basing cases on wifom arguments. people are using wifom arguments to accuse other people of making wifom arguments.... and in the meantime 3 town players have died. on reflection I think we should have taken the lurker policy seriously.
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Is it possible that there are 2 vigilantes?
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On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn.
Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is.
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On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante...
The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.
And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie.
I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad.
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On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum.
Could you outline why you want to lynch me other than that you are in agreement with what others have said? Since shady was lynched all you have said was this:
On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote:
I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn.
##Vote Thrawn
also, ##FoS YourHarry
His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says.
There was not very much substance in that post and it's the only post you've made since the lynch where you explain your current reads.
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On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking.
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can.
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Darthpunk, you have been twisting everything I've said to you into more reasons why I'm scum, and for that I'm going to be looking closely at your filter. It seems like you're less interested in seeing what I have to say and more interested in convincing town I'm scum regardless of my arguments. Goodkarma on the other hand even asked me to defend myself. I can sense sincerity in his motivations but you just seem focused on interpreting everything I say as evidence against me.
@goodkarma
dont worry it's coming
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On August 18 2012 08:57 goodkarma wrote:So, I have a pretty long post I’ve been putting together on my latest scum reads. I now strongly believe that Shady was on the right track. Thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are the three scum. Evidence of a shared QT:First, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the evidence that both Thrawn and Ochrow are sharing a QT. Shady has brought this up before, and so have I, but I don’t feel everyone has looked back on their filters to determine how obvious this is. Listed below, for your reference are the two posts that show this most clearly. Notice the timestamps, as they are identical. There is zero chance that one came in and later “copied” the other: Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
Policy?
A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so.
Concerning the YH topic:
3 possibilities immediately come to mind:
One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned.
At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.
Solarsail
Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling.
mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Now look also at the nature of the posts. What is discussed is almost identical. Both talk about Solarsail, and both conclude that he is not currently suspicious. Both also conclude that YourHarry is town. This point should bring up red flags on everyone’s radars, as this is simply not the prevailing viewpoint of the thread at the time, and they both give pretty weak reasoning for their conclusion. Both also discuss policy lurker lynching. Here, Ochrow FoS’s Archrun (in the same post), and thrawn FoS’s Archrun about two hours later. What are the odds that that many different topics were discussed by two people randomly at the exact same time without the help of a QT? I’d say pretty much none. As I originally posted, though, I felt that two scum associating themselves this closely was nearly suicidal. I suspected them to be masons. But neither have come forward with such a claim, even as Thrawn was nearly lynched day one. Additionally, neither of them have been interested in scum-hunting, spending much of their energies with wishy-washy “I don’t know” posts on others’ reads and pursuing the lurker lynch of Archrun. I will lay this out in my posts against each candidate below:
You say there is 0 chance that we copied each other. I say that there is 0 chance a scum team would post eerily similar arguments so close together. I have been questioned over and over for what was an unfortunate coincidence.
Case against Thrawn:
So the underlying theme here is that none of these three is interested in scum-hunting. Let’s summarize Thrawn’s posting history, in chronological order:
-Wastes a bunch of time discussing the possibility of an SK
-dismisses case on solarsail as emotional response either town or scum could do
-casts light suspicion on YourHarry
-Summarizes stance on solarsail, magically decides YourHarry is now town, and starts “lurker lynch” policy
-Tunnels Archrun
-OMGUS votes Shady
I did not "waste a bunch of time discussing the possibilty of an SK." I only made one post at the very beginning of the game when everyone was focusing on policy. I dropped the issue because nobody posted saying it was an issue worth talking about. "Wastes a bucnh of time" is such an extreme exaggeration of a single post at the beginning of the game.
I did not go after Archrun for no reason. I have explained my reason several times, he was one of the lurkers, and was was the only lurker that had not contributed anything useful to discussion.
My vote for Shady was not an OMGUS vote. It was based on me not being able to understand how he could possibly think I was scum after all the counter arguments I had given him. Not knowing how he (as a town player) could think I was scum, I began to think he was scum and that he was trying to set me up. He continued being unreasonable so finally I thought he was confirmed scum and voted for him.
That pretty much sums up his play to date. The only real stances I’ve gotten from his play so far:
-YourHarry is town because his mason case was “believable.” He has to date not said anything to address the scum behavior others have pointed out in YourHarry’s play. This is a weak claim with very little to back it up. I find it interesting that he doesn’t go so far as to determine Solar to be town by the same logic. Most players would say YourHarry is a neutral read by Thrawn’s logic, as believing YourHarry’s mason case was genuinely made does not in any way support that YourHarry’s case was made with a town motivation in the first place. He also has mentioned his FOS on YourHarry was hastily made, which is true. It didn’t really feel like he had any conviction behind it, and it feels like two scum trying to distance themselves. I originally said that he was thinking in binary. “If I can’t confirm YourHarry is scum, then he’s town.” But looking at how wishy-washy he’s been on SolarSail, this isn’t the case. This was a deliberate choice, and why I believe scum Thrawn is covering for scum YourHarry here.
Regarding my play:
My play at the beginning of D1 was pretty weak, but I think I was right for FOS'ing archrun based on what he had posted so far. As D1 came to an end I think I drastically improved my play. I was able to present logical arguments backed up by a lot of quotes from filters, and I did participate in scumhunting.
I think that if not for me, Shady wouldn't have been lynched. I went out on a limb to vote for him, because my reasoning for voting shady was based on me being town. This is not information other people had so I was in no way bandwagoning onto a shady lynch. My vote for shady was based on something only I knew, which was that I was town.
My next post will contain my FOS candidate. I can only request that those of you who are convinced that I am scum to investigate my next scum read because when I flip blue you won't have wasting precious scumhunting time.
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FOS yourharry
Yourharry has a long track record of posting one liners. One liners are likely to come from scum, as the scum can appear active and even appear to be scumhunting without saying anything of substance for the town to analyze. I have gone through his filter and quoted all his one liners. I tried not to include posts that shouldn't be relevant, such as asking mods questions and things like that. There are several posts I didn't include that were very short but at least were composed of more than a single sentence
+ Show Spoiler +On August 15 2012 12:06 YourHarry wrote:
I think solarsail is scared ... On August 15 2012 12:09 YourHarry wrote:
Did we just catch 2 scums?? On August 15 2012 12:09 YourHarry wrote:
Shady, don't leave us. Let's find the third scum. On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote:
Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on.
##Unvote On August 15 2012 12:27 YourHarry wrote:
Shady, do you agree? On August 15 2012 12:34 YourHarry wrote:
Right now is not the good time to explain. Really, you don't see it? On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote:
GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you? On August 15 2012 13:54 YourHarry wrote:
I found mkfuba scummy, but I may have been too focused on people trying to target Solar. On August 17 2012 05:32 YourHarry wrote:
BTW, I still think GK is scummy. On August 17 2012 05:34 YourHarry wrote:
Whether or not it's a plurality, what is the point of casting a vote on someone who is not going to get majority of the votes? On August 17 2012 05:39 YourHarry wrote:
I will be back before deadline. Count on it. On August 18 2012 10:22 YourHarry wrote:
thrawn, do you think there is SK? quick question, yes or no? On August 18 2012 16:21 YourHarry wrote:
Keep busing your scum partner.
Yourharry has flipflopped more than any other player.
Here is one example:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=8
On this page he votes for thrawn. The next two posts are back to back, Darthpunk is suspicious of solar and shady issues an FOS on solar. The next post is yourharry unvoting thrawn and voting for solar. His explanation in that post is a quote of something solar said at the beginning of the game. Harry does not present a case, he only quotes solar and votes for him. This looks like someone who is trying to fit in with the current opinion without having to give a good explanation for his read. There are many other times he has flipflopped and he has been called out for doing so throughout the game.
Yourharry made votes for shady, solar, thrawn, goodkarma, and archrun. Near the voting deadline, he votes for shady, after people such as myself, mkfuba, and jhyut have done. At that point it is looking like either shady or I will be lynched. Then there is discussion about how voting for a lurker such as archrun (who is starting to get more votes) is a safer alternative than lynching shady or myself. Even I make a couple posts about the possibility of switching my vote to archrun. Right before the deadline, literally minutes before the deadline, yourharry switches his vote to archrun. He switches his vote to what people are saying would be the "safe" option. He quotes the "either thrawn scum or shady scum" quote from archrun and switches his vote giving a short two sentence explanation for his vote. To sum up, he votes for shady when other people start doing so, then switches his vote to archrun when other people start doing so, and his explanations why weren't very good. At the start of N1 he is defending me, but once the town is all saying that I am scum (excluding lurkers, where are you guys?) he changes his read.
At the beginning of the game I was suspicious of yourharry because of how he posted during the solar trolling. After him giving his explanation for his nonsensical posts about information only he knew I accepted his explanation and from that point on I haven't paid too attention to him and had a slight town read on him. I should not have stopped watching him, his behavior of posting one liners, flipflopping, bandwagoning has not stopped.
Am I reading too much into his posting style and his flip flops? When I think about the way he has posted and changed his reads to whoever the town had a scum read on over the course of the game, I am starting to think he is scum. I'm not confident enough in my read to vote for him but I think his general behavior has been very suspicious.
Regarding WIFOM:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM
I read the definition, and have come to the conclusion that people keep using that word and I do not think it means what they think it means.
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