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On August 16 2012 21:16 Shady Sands wrote:Finally, why did you just not even bother to respond to Solar's mega post fingering you as the scummiest reaction to his trolling?
I did respond to solar's accusation of me being scummy based his reasoning that I was being defensive of him.
On August 16 2012 15:50 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 15:11 Solarsail wrote:
I will be back in four hours with a full post but I want to address two things
1. I wasn't suspicious of Jhuyt because there was so little to work with. I have him down as a near-lurker and hence '?' for now.
2. Jhuyt and I have a specific history in a specific thread involving some deleted posts. It's understandable him and him alone would say that.
Point 1: You were suspicious of me defending you, but not of jhuyt for defending you? Looking back on what Jhuyt and i said about you, I was the one who expressed more suspicion of you. Yes, I did say that your behavior could be explained by you being town but playing extremely, extremely poorly. What you said is that your first few posts were troll posts, and that is correct if you are town or scum. Both what I said and what you claimed are both along the lines of "solar's first posts are town posts, but they are very unorthodox town posts." This is not dissimilar to things many others said. I also said that because of your posting style I was definitely most suspicious of you at that point in time, just for the reason of it being an odd posting style. Yet you claim that I was a target for being more defensive of you when I clearly said I was suspicious of you while jhyut did not? When you came clean about your troll posts, I as well as the majority vocal opinion at that time believed you. Now that I think back on it, I am not convinced that your early game facade is pro-town behavior. You say you wanted to get discussion going and to get reactions from players, and while that did happen, everyone became sidetracked on the argument between you and shady. That eventually gave way to a few other arguments that were either decided to be weak reads, or the outcome is still very ambiguous. 1: Why would a town player troll his first few posts? You say it is to generate discussion and make reads on people, but these are reads that (if you are town) only you will be able to make unless you can convince everyone else to believe you. 2: Why would a scum troll his first few posts? The answer to that has been made clearly obvious by the first 24 hrs worth of posts in this thread. What you did, regardless of it being pro town or anti town, in my opinion ended up having an anti town effect. If something has an anti-town effect, the easiest and simplest solution is that it was directed by someone who has anti-town motives. Point 2: That would be an acceptable answer, except that there is absolutely a 0% chance of anyone being able to fact check it. I'm still trying to figure out if there is any reasonable way for me to decide whether or not you're telling the truth about you and jhuyt's past. I am not yet suspicious of you being scum, mostly because of the strong pro-town vibe I initially got from reading your post-troll posts, but I do think that there are some holes in your arguments which I would like you to explain.
I bolded the part specific to your post. Once again, you are misreading or completely ignoring my arguments. You have continued doing this for so long that I'm really considering the possibility that you aren't misreading or ignoring, but that you are scum trying to frame me.
##FOS Shady Sands
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On August 16 2012 19:32 Shady Sands wrote:
Okay, I just posted and I immediately saw Ochrow and Thrawn both trying to get a train on Archrun going (both posting within 30 minutes of each other.) This just reconfirms my theory:
Ochrow and Thrawn are, at the very least, working together, and given how Thrawn's been so WIFOMy and sheepy for the game, I'd reckon they are not masons but scum.
Just to show you how absurd of an argument this is, I'd like to point something out. You said that you saw both ochrow and I, within 30 minutes of each other were "trying to get a train on archrun going." Well, you and Archrun both voted against me within 3 minutes. If I use the reasoning you used to link me with ochrow as both scum, I must also link you with Archrun as scum.
Really shady, your arguments against me have been quite a stretch, and over and over you have ignored my responses to your accusations. I do not think that if you are thoroughly reading my posts that you would still have the belief that I am scum. I will go over our conversation and try to figure out if I have been unclear in my responses to you, and I urge you to go through the conversation to see if you might have missed out on what I was trying to say. If we can't figure this out, then my only options are to think that you are scum and trying to set me up, or that you are town and making weak reads and terrible arguments. I think it is the former so I am going to vote for you. If it is the latter, I won't feel TOO bad about lynching a town player who makes bad arguments.
Whatever happened to your campaign to get everyone posting their previous game filters? Based on what you have done since demanding filters from everyone, I don't see a pro-town motive for your request. Your reasoning in asking for them was that having filters can be very useful in getting reads on people's posts that are made in specific circumstances, such as what a player usually acts like when accused of being scum. After asking for everyone's filters, you haven't even brought the subject back up. What was the point of asking in the first place if you are not going to follow through with analysis? If you wanted to view the filters for your own sole benefit, it would have been way easier for you to just find the filters yourself. If you wanted the group to view the filters so that the town can make better reads, then why haven't you provided any analysis of a player's posting within this game to their posting within previous games? I can't figure out why you asked from them in the first place, which leads me to the conclusion that your filter requests were fluff.
##Vote Shady Sands
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My vote against shady isn't an OMGUS vote. I am geniunly suspicious of him as scum. I think he has been very disingenuous in the way he his arguing his case, which is the motivation for my vote.
In response to shady's latest big post:
I feel like I am posting the same things over and over again in response to the same accusations. Is there anyone other than shady or archrun that want me to defend myself?
I'm going to bed....I've stayed up till 11am. I'm setting my alarm clock to go off in a few hours so I should be back in time to talk about things before the votes are due.
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On August 17 2012 01:58 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 00:00 thrawn2112 wrote:
Whatever happened to your campaign to get everyone posting their previous game filters? Based on what you have done since demanding filters from everyone, I don't see a pro-town motive for your request. Your reasoning in asking for them was that having filters can be very useful in getting reads on people's posts that are made in specific circumstances, such as what a player usually acts like when accused of being scum. After asking for everyone's filters, you haven't even brought the subject back up. What was the point of asking in the first place if you are not going to follow through with analysis? If you wanted to view the filters for your own sole benefit, it would have been way easier for you to just find the filters yourself. If you wanted the group to view the filters so that the town can make better reads, then why haven't you provided any analysis of a player's posting within this game to their posting within previous games? I can't figure out why you asked from them in the first place, which leads me to the conclusion that your filter requests were fluff.
##Vote Shady Sands This is just... I don't even know. The most hard to read piece of Irony in the thread. If you have a reason to vote Shady why is half your post such garbage? I have made far better arguments against shady and I haven't even voted for him. This is not a case, nor a read, and is certainly not enough to be the none OMGUS part of the post in which you vote for shady. This does nothing to aid in the scumhunting that is occuring. This is Fluff. It is distracting us from being able to clearly read the cases for and against you.
As I said earlier, my vote against shady is not just a OMGUS reaction. Throuought our argument, shady kept bringing up the same accusations which to my knowledge I gave reasonable and believable responses to. He ignored my arguments, and continued to make the same arguments over and over. From my knowledge (which is that I am the only one I know 100% is a townie) is that shady is either trying to set me up because he is scum or he is a town player making some of the worst arguments possible. I find it more likely that shady is scum because I really can't see how somebody could make such a bad argument. He even went so far as to say that it should be completely obvious to everyone else in the thread that my actions and ochrow's were coordinated. This claim was based on ochrow and I both putting a FOS on archrun within 30 minutes of each other. This is a nonsensical accusation to make. If I was scum with ochrow and trying to pin suspicion on archrun, I hope that my attempt would be way more subtle than what shady accused me of doing. I also pointed out that beyond the posting time and our both fos'ing the same player, he has given no evidence to support his claim. Anyone could easily use the same type of 'argument' against him, as he and archrun voted against me within 3 minutes of each other. By Shady's standards of evidence, the case for he and archrun being scum is even stronger than his case for ochrow and I being scum. I am not making a case that shady and archrun are both scum for those reasons, nor am I trying to prove that BOTH ochrow and I are innocent. It is just an example to show how truly unfounded shady's case was.
The filter posts were a result of me thinking shady is scum because of how he was presenting his argument against me, so I went back through his filter and that was the first thing that leapt out at me as additional evidence of him being scum.
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On August 17 2012 01:58 Solarsail wrote:
Sorry I missed DP's new post.
That is very strong. I would like to see Thrawn defend that.
Now that DP's argument is there in full with evidence, the line "mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?" is really, really out of place.
The last post mkfuba made before I posted that quote, was this:
On August 16 2012 02:14 mkfuba07 wrote:
So I've just quickly read through what I missed while asleep. I have a few appointments to get to, so this will be my only post until later this evening.
My read on Shady right now is slight townie. He was the driving force behind most of the first day so far, and has been sticking his neck out the entire time. I get null reads from the cases he presented, because though I disagree with the evidence for them, they promoted discussion when there was very little to discuss. He gets a townie point because of this discussion promotion and activity.
I waited to post my reads on YourHarry because I wanted to avoid an OMGUS reaction, but most of my feelings on him had been posted by GK. I really wanted to see his reasoning for dropping the votes on Solar. Since he's posted that now, I'm a strange point in my read on him. In response to his vague comments I started to believe that he had just read his role PM (since he delayed reading them in both D1s of XXIII) and realized that Solar was his Mason partner. That seems like a legitimate reason to hint at it without outright saying it, though it will make everyone suspicious of him. What I find most suspicious is YH's willingness to believe in a Solar/GK mason team with so little evidence of it. The post he quoted from GK "defending" Solar was a mirror of my views on Solar - that he's playing in a way that will distract us from true scumhunting for the rest of D1. I don't think GK's phrasing implied greater knowledge than he should have had as a vanilla townie, as I came to the same conclusion. As a result, I see YH's strong townie read on Solar as YH behaving as if he has more information than he should. Since he isn't mason, that only leaves scum.
FoS YourHarry
Solar's posts have me leaning towards a townie read for him. Pointing out how thrawn's defense of him may be considered scummy seems like a very town thing to do. He's not taking someone's defense of him as evidence of townie-ness, but being suspicious of his motives. I'm not sure I agree with his method of building discussion (in reference to his earliest, trolly play), since his first few posts could cast him in a suspicious light for the rest of the game. But if it was his plan to do so to build discussion in the first place, then he knew the risks and took them for the team.
Mkfuba puts a FoS on YH, with his reasoning being that YH was acting as if he had more information than anyone else concerning his read on solar and gk.
I then posted:
On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
Policy?
A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so.
Concerning the YH topic:
3 possibilities immediately come to mind:
One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned.
At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.
Solarsail
Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling.
mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?
My first paragraph under the YH topic is a little difficult for me to understand right now. I'll admit that I was in no way giving a clear picture of my train of thought. As I posted the night before I made my posts about YH, I was not sober that night. If you are curious about this then go check what other threads I post in as it might cause you to believe that I was likely to be telling the truth about not being sober. Despite not being sober I did lurk in the thread for 3 or 4 hours before sobering up after a quick nap. I take notes whenever I read a new post, and my scattered train of thought after my nap was probably brought on by taking notes in a scattered frame of mind before the nap.
The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH.
However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why.
I guess the lessons to be learned are to give reasoning behind my posts, and uh .... don't read the mafia forum if I'm not sober.
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On August 17 2012 02:39 Jhuyt wrote:
Thrawn, I have one question for you which I feel you haven't sufficently answered: What made you feel like Arch was more scummy than Me, Stutter, Golbat or the other lurkers up until the point you decided that Arch was the scummiest?
This keeps getting brought up, and I keep answering it over and over again, and nobody except solar has responded to any of my answers. Here is one of my several responses to this question:
On August 16 2012 10:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult.
At that point in the game there were a few people who were lurking. I didn't see any good scumhunting cases being made, so I decided to try and get the lurkers to post more. I went through all their few posts, and archrun's were the ones I found to be most lacking in pro-town content. Thus he is the best target of all the lurkers. I did not ignore the other lurkers, but being most suspicious of him I pressured him the most.
In my FOS of Archrun, before anyone had expression suspicions as to why I was targeting him specifically out of all the lurkers, I said:
On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting.
The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters.
Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts
Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy
Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts
Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post
Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker.
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On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote:
6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself.
You are exactly right about why I voted for shady. I was being accused of putting a spotlight on which was from my explained reasoning, the most scummy lurker. Shady kept drilling the same accusations over and over and the main focus of his case was on that I put a FOS on archrun, and his claim that ochrow and I were scum and working together to cause a mislynch of archrun. Someone above this post said that a more reasonable explanation of the odd timing of ochrow and my posts is that ochrow and I are masons. In someone else's position I would be way more likely to believe that thrawn and ochrow are masons rather than scum, and I really cant see why shady is being so aggressive over what from my perspective, is a completely fabricated case.
You hinted that you think the push to lynch me is likely to be somewhat a scum directed action. This is the conclusion I came to and I voted for Shady because he was (once again from my perspective knowing that I am town) being the most illogical and relentless about it.
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I think it is 4 hours and 30 minutes
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+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2012 04:52 Stutters695 wrote:My current vote is going to Archrun. I am suspicious of Thrawn but reading Mkfuba and GK's posts about him I'd like to see a little more out of him before coming to a conclusion on him. ##Vote ArchrunHere's why I think Archrun is our best lynch (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489&user=155910 - Full Filter for easy reference): Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:On August 15 2012 09:42 Shady Sands wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Thoughts on XXIII] +I'm still really mad at Hapa for essentially winning on luck in XXIII. Had GK actually spoken up in the game, Hapa wouldn't have had the GK lynch to work off of and we scum could have safely NK'd him without worrying about a medic save. Howdy town. Let's kick some scum ass. A few policy notes: - Lynch all lurkers. That's how town caught scum in XXIII. But don't overly rely on this, scum can fake D1 activity pretty well.
- Observe, observe, and observe. If someone acts strangely, lynch them. This includes checking everyone's metas from previous games.
- All players here--please list all the games you have played previously, as well as which roles you played, along with filters for your posts. Here are my links:
My XXIII Filter, where I was scum
My XXII Filter, where I was Mason with Keirathi
- If someone isn't forthcoming with information ("I have a read but I'm not going to share it because of blah") lynch them.
- If someone isn't actively pushing new cases with their posts, press them on it.
- Stop OMGUS wars. They're not productive. If two people are OMGUSing each other, tell them to stop, don't just sit there and let them keep yelling at each other. The only ones who win off mass OMGUSing are scum.
That's all for now, good luck everyone. This is my first time playing, but I did read XXIII in preparation for this game and the policy seemed effective, because even if the scum is being active everyone has a a good sample of posts to analyze and hopefully make more accurate reads. As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. So far he has a total of six posts in this game. I don't find that particularly suspicious but what I do find suspicious is that he looks active throughout without actually looking for scum.In his first post he says the policy from XXIII and that as a VT he promotes "any policy that helps us catch scum." Although you can't expect scumhunting this early, I wanted to point out his noncommittal attitude. Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote:On August 15 2012 10:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 15 2012 09:59 Shady Sands wrote:On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player.
If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK.
Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. Why are you so worried about the SK? SK is a bigger threat to scum than to town. I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game. Now he has two more posts for that day. The first one is agreeing with both Shady and thrawn's statements that a SK is a non-issue at this point for the town. This has already been agreed upon and he didn't contribute anything new with his post except that a team of 3 is more dangerous than a 1 man team. His only other post before disappearing for 24 hours is soft defending Thrawn from Shady. Fast forward 26 hours and we get to the point that really stood out to me and caused me to look into him more closely. First his case on Solar and Jhuyt: Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote:Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and SolarCase: Jhuyt puts: On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. then Solar puts: Secondly, the continued defence of me by Thrawn has no basis. I was clearly being anti-town. Some evidence:
"I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy."
"Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar?"
"Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts."
"Suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him."
There is little reason to defend me so much unless your motivation is to defend someone he knows to be town player for deflection reasons.
May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is. This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt? This plays out four ways: If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible. If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility. If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible. Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above. This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons. Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment. This appears to be his largest contribution to the thread. He has a premise and uses some facts to back it up. Most of the post is WIFOM and doesn't really contribute anything. The part I want to emphasize is the first part of his two-fold concern. "May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie.2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is." Now fast forward six hours to his next post: Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 19:32 Archrun wrote:Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally. Therefore, one of my premise is incorrect and I must remove my claim towards them. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I look into evidence about Thrawn and there was 3 main points against him: He was fluff, motive concerns by Solar and Z-Boson questioning of him. I came to the conclusion that he has shown some dodgy behavior. The beginning of the thread there was a lot of posts claiming Thrawn to being very fluffy, but the beginning was very chaotic and Thrawn was the only one. His posted definitely, picked up later. When Solar questioned Thrawn motive for defending his anti-town behavior Thrawn claims he changed Thrawn from Scummy to town who doesn't know the tone of the game. Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. No where does he explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie. Z-Boson questioned Thrawn about why did he choose me and not other lurkers and an accusation that Thrawn dodged Golbat. Thrawn has not explained himself to Golbat's concern yet. Thrawn rebuttal was mine had the most merit. Thrawn proceed to explain why I was a good candidate, but not why the other lurkers where not as good candidates. For those reason I am currently at ##Vote Thrawn2112--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ochrow was the first to claim against me and soon afterwards Thrawn join in. Therefore, I believe Z-Boson question on why should I be the focus over other lurkers stand towards him. Also, why focus on lurker lynching instead of scum hunting? did you not have a read on anyone as scum? Now this could just be my earlier suspicions talking as there is no real concrete evidence behind this, but it does seem that this was rather deflective, and if you did have suspicions as scum that those two were masons it would benefit you to try and get them lynched. I do encourage you however to prove me wrong, because as I said before I am not sure about this, its really more a feeling than anything. As it currently stands I am most suspicious of Arch for his lurking earlier, and the fact that as soon as he was called out on it his first reaction was an ooooh look this guy is scum post. And even with that post I felt that he was off the mark so until Arch or somebody else points out some reason or evidence that makes him look like a townie I don't feel like it was deflective because I brought up something that seemed wrong until solar set it straight(which I checked out). However, most people agreed that scumhunting is more than lynch lurking and there was quite a few people that had YH pegged as scum. If that is the case won't the safer play be to remain silent if I am scum? Also your example of it being beneficial for me to be to discover if they are masons assuming I am scum is unfair, because if I am scum then they would be either my partner which I am busing out of the blue or they are townies. If I am scum then I would want to make them look like scum, but in my argument I did not give a support to them being scum. But if I am a townie they discovering they are scum was be useful cause we would know who to lynch or if I was a townie knowing they are Masons would remove 2 people off a possible list of suspects leaving every townie that is not them 10 people to look at instead of 12. At the very start of this post he immediately refutes his previous case by saying "Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally." At this point from the start of the game until this post he has spent over 30 hours without contributing anything while appearing very active. Now moving forward to his case on Thrawn, the meat of it is in that Thrawn doesn't "explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie." However if you read the quote regarding it in Archrun's post it is explaining exactly why. Show nested quote +Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. The rest of his case is just sheeping off of Solar and Z-Boson's claims against Thrawn. His very last post is a bunch of quotes that I honestly have a hard time following but again he sheeps off of another player's accusations. Tl;dr - Read the post and see why Archrun has been hiding his lack of contribution while appearing active.
I would be in favor of voting for Archrun or Shady. Of course there is the obvious "they were the first two to vote on me" but I think the way the case against me was carried out was very scummy. Shady was the main driving force behind the case against me, and I have been suspicious of archrun since sometime during the first 24 hrs. And as I said, they were the first two to vote for me so I think that one and/or both of them are scum. I think shady should get the vote, because I'd rather vote for someone who seems scummy after posting a lot than someone who seems scummy but might actually be a town lurker.
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On August 17 2012 04:57 YourHarry wrote:Thrawn, do you standby the fact that your post was NOT affected by Ochrow's?
No, my post was not affected by ochrow's. The purpose of quoting his post was to show my agreement with his read on archrun. While our statements about why we suspect archrun sound similar, they are based on different theories. (I could be wrong, I have no idea what exact process ochrun used) A good amount of time had been wasted on weak accusations and I thought lurker policy would be a better thing to focus on than whatever was being discussed. I systematically went through the filters of the lurkers and tried to see if any of them stood out.
This is a basic summary of the investigation I made into the lurkers
On August 17 2012 03:23 thrawn2112 wrote:The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters.
Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts
Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy
Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts
Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post
Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker.
I do not know if ochrow used a similar method to choose a lurker to focus on, but regardless we both arrived at the same conclusion.
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Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum.
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A lot of your post was VERY difficult to follow. Not because of logic... I had to re-read sentences a few times because I couldn't figure out what you were trying to say. This has nothing to do with my read on you.... lol I'm honestly just having a hard time following your post.
I want to know what you think about shady. Whatever you have to say about him will greatly influence my read on you. As of now I am getting scummy reads from both of you.
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On August 17 2012 07:36 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 06:21 thrawn2112 wrote:
A lot of your post was VERY difficult to follow. Not because of logic... I had to re-read sentences a few times because I couldn't figure out what you were trying to say. This has nothing to do with my read on you.... lol I'm honestly just having a hard time following your post.
I am having a similar problem with your posts 
yeah... I haven't needed to use punctuation for a long time
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On August 17 2012 07:58 DarthPunk wrote:I am really uncomfortable with how fast a counter wagon on the most active player in the game sprung up. I urge everyone to read MY CASE on thrawn.
My initial FOS on yourharry was bad play. I didn't have sufficient evidence to put a FOS on YH. My suspicion was only based off of how many times yh had flip-flopped so I was wary of him. The FOS was unwarranted. I called FOS without putting enough thought into the decision.
I do think that I gave a good explanation of why I later believed he was town:
On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.
I clarified my argument after being pressed about it:
The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH.
However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why.
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On August 17 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip.
You say my justifications were poor, and I say they weren't.....
Harry referred to information that only he claimed to have. Later he took back the claim he made based off that information. He revealed the information to be that he thought that solar and gk were masons because of the wording of gk's post.
This statement.....
On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote:
Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now.
......gives credence to his story about him thinking solar and gk are masons.
After this post:
On August 15 2012 14:14 mkfuba07 wrote:
@YourHarry:
When did you check your role PM this time?
I began to think that yourharry and solar were masons. I realized later that I was reading way too much into everything.
My experience of thinking that solar is a mason and realizing that I was making a weak read is what caused me to trust yourharry's claim that he made a weak read on the mason-status of solar.
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You are exaggerating how much I "championed my read." The only championing I did was to ask mkfuba what he thought of my reasoning, because mkfuba had just recently called FOS on YH. My argument was enough to convince myself, but I was hoping to figure out if it was enough to convince others, which would allow me to move on from the issue.
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I would be willing to to vote Archrun if the town isn't going to vote shady. I have already explained why so I'm not going to waste time doing it again, we only have 5 minutes left.
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Somebody else is gonna have to do it first, otherwise If I am the onyl one to switch then I will be lynched.
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I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate.
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I've started going through Archrun's filter and I have some questions for him.
On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 15 2012 09:59 Shady Sands wrote:On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player.
If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK.
Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. Why are you so worried about the SK? SK is a bigger threat to scum than to town. I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game.
I don't accept that as an accurate description of an SK. You say not to worry about looking for an sk until later in the game, because an sk is "like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently." An SK isn't limited to killing scum, in fact they would probably have to kill more town players than scum players. The fact that you didn't point out hwo an SK would also kill town players leads me to think that you either didn't realize it, or that you are planting a false description of an SK because YOU are SK. What do you have to say about your original description of an SK and what do you think about my description?
In this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote:Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and SolarCase: Jhuyt puts: Show nested quote +On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. then Solar puts: Show nested quote +Secondly, the continued defence of me by Thrawn has no basis. I was clearly being anti-town. Some evidence:
"I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy."
"Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar?"
"Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts."
"Suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him."
There is little reason to defend me so much unless your motivation is to defend someone he knows to be town player for deflection reasons.
May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is. This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt? This plays out four ways: If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible. If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility. If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible. Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above. This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons. Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment.
You gave a very long winded and convoluted argument where your conclusion was that solar and jhuyt are possibly, depending on several variable factors, either both scum or masons. It looks like you were trying way too hard to appear like you were contributing. This doesn't mean that you are confirmed scum, because if you are town then I understand your motivation for making that post. You could have felt like you were under too much pressure and decided to post a long argument to convince people that you are town, but I think your argument felt forced. In your next post you take back your claim because jhyut's statement about solar's posting history proved to be true, which gives me a town read on that post. You show that you are trying to adjust your arguments based on new information presented by others which I think is pro-town behavior. No matter what your alliance is, your mason/scum claim on solar and jhyut looked like an attempt to show that you are contributing. I'm going to stick with town read on that one but there were things that happened later on in D1 that caused me to get a scum read on you. I haven't gone through your posts after the one's I referenced so I still need to form an opinion on your role in the lynch vote.
For now I'd like to hear what you have to say about my post.
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EPT
