Missed the last newbie mafia, time for another one :D
Newbie Mini Mafia XXII
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Missed the last newbie mafia, time for another one :D | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Some questions:
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
]b]Questions: How do mason work? This is my guess: [A] Mason:Townie Pairs 1) Masons are selected at the start of the game. 2) They will be given a random townie, and the link for the QT. 3) The selected townie will also receive the link for the QT. 4) Mason and townie relationship is 1:1. 5) If there are 2 Masons, each of them has a separate QT, that allows each pair to chat with each other, but it is in isolation with other pairs. Mason Underground Society 1) Masons are selected at the start of the game 2) All selected masons will be given the same QT link 3) Selected masons can chat in private, and there can be n >= 2 masons. Which one more accurately describe the mason role? Or are they totally off? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On July 25 2012 09:31 Promethelax wrote: Are Millers self aware?..wait...are there even Millers? I don't think we have Millers in this game. There are Masons tho. Regarding townie roleblocker. Normally the townie roleblocker is a jailer, and it does more than just role block: it also prevents the target from being targeted by other players. So our townie roleblcoker merely role blocks: it does not grant immunity to the blocked player? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
GLHF all. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@My stance on Day 1 Lynch I am strongly against day 1 no lynch. Scums starts with an information advantage while townies starts without a clue. I believe by pushing a lynch can lead to more clues (e.g. vote pattern like Shady mentioned). The best outcome, of course, is to get a scum kill, but as long as we don't mislynch a blue, it would still fairly benefit town overall. @Blue role discussion There is no reason to talk about blue actions at this point of time. I suggest we drop it and focus on scum hunting instead. @Lurkers Lurkers are bad anti-town play. Also, based on circumstances, lynching a scummy lurker is the best outcome. Look at my previous game for correctly lynching a scum lurker in day 1. I partially blame town lurkers for causing town to lose in my previous game, especially when we got 2 mafias in the beginning of day 2. (Correct d1 lynch + correct n1 vigil kill). @My policy I think we should be careful not to base our cases on speculations and far fetched logic. I will look for both townie and scum motives that fits in a person's action and weight accordingly. Also, that also means unless I am certain of your alignment, I am going to doubt every single word you say. @Mordanis's case on Keirathi I think Mordanis reads too much into Keirathi's first post. From what I have read, he is merely suggesting roleblocker not to use its power just because they can, its like telling vigilante not to shoot night 1 without a good reason: there is nothing wrong with it, at least not in the light Mordanis put him in. Mordanis also put words into Keirathi's mouth, say he "soft claimed" roleblocker when I don't read it as such no matter what. While this is scummy, I could also interpret this as an over-sensitive town play, and both are as likely. Ninja'd I started writing this post at 9:30 a.m. and is currently it is 11:30 a.m. due to work, and it takes a long time for me to type things out. I refreshed to forum I see Mordanis is currently under fire for his post. After reading Darth's case I don't think he is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason.
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
After reading Darth's case I don't think | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Mordanis My argument for Mordanis is that he is the first person who throws out a case. Loosely quoting someone else in my previous game: the scum hunting starts when one person build a "meh" case against another player with "meh" reasoning. It would not make sense for scum Mordanis to trigger the scum hunt while putting himself in the spot light. That said, the problem I had with Mordanis is he is reluctant to give up on his case against Kei despite how other people has pointed out how weak it was. (Refer to his second case) It seems like he is trying to start a bandwagon on a random townie based on their first post. This part caught my attention: All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch Why would you want to find out who is blue or not? That is not the priority here. Are you suggesting it is okay to lynch Kei because he is not blue? What do townie possibly gain from trying to find out who is "not blue"? TL:DR Townie Mordanis characteristics
Scum Mordanis characteristics
I originally had a slight town read on Mordanis, but now I am inclining to think Mordanis is possible scum. ##FoS Mordanis However, I am still reluctant to jump on the bandwagon, mainly because I haven't gone through everyone else's filters, and there a handful people that have yet to produce anything of significance for any analysis whatsoever. I will do so when I'm off work a few hours later. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too. Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Mordanis You said:- + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 19:07 Mordanis wrote: What is it that has changed your mind? You went from "Mordanis could go either way, started scumhunt but didn't agree with everyone" to "scum", without saying what changed your mind. In fact I just want to point out that if internal contradiction is grounds for lynching, I think pretty much everyone's dead D1. And I really do want to know why Alan is suspicious of me, because I see one mistake (over-pursuing my case on Keir), and I'd argue that this post is equally a mistake. So I wait patiently. What is it that has changed your mind? You went from "Mordanis could go either way, started scumhunt but didn't agree with everyone" to "scum", without saying what changed your mind Refer to the quote below. When I think you were slightly town it was before you posted your second case.I know that was posted AFTER your second case, but in all honesty I did not read it as I click on "post". I did another evaluation on you so you can see from my quote below. On July 27 2012 16:22 alan133 wrote: This is my read on Mordanis @Mordanis My argument for Mordanis is that he is the first person who throws out a case. Loosely quoting someone else in my previous game: It would not make sense for scum Mordanis to trigger the scum hunt while putting himself in the spot light. That said, the problem I had with Mordanis is he is reluctant to give up on his case against Kei despite how other people has pointed out how weak it was. (Refer to his second case) It seems like he is trying to start a bandwagon on a random townie based on their first post. This part caught my attention: Why would you want to find out who is blue or not? That is not the priority here. Are you suggesting it is okay to lynch Kei because he is not blue? What do townie possibly gain from trying to find out who is "not blue"? TL:DR Townie Mordanis characteristics
Scum Mordanis characteristics
I originally had a slight town read on Mordanis, but now I am inclining to think Mordanis is possible scum. ##FoS Mordanis However, I am still reluctant to jump on the bandwagon, mainly because I haven't gone through everyone else's filters, and there a handful people that have yet to produce anything of significance for any analysis whatsoever. I will do so when I'm off work a few hours later. [/spoiler] Also, unless I missed it, you have not address my accusation against you, correct? Especially this part: + Show Spoiler + All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch Why would you want to find out who is blue or not? That is not the priority here. Are you suggesting it is okay to lynch Kei because he is not blue? What do townie possibly gain from trying to find out who is "not blue"? Can you explain a possible town motivation for this? Also, the reason why you were getting more and more suspicious to me. You wrote a counter-case against Golbet, and went so far as to counter-vote him. I thought it was actually decent if you were town. However, you failed to follow through, you did not apply any pressure on your target whatsoever. So yea, if you're asking what makes me think you're scum the more I reread the filter, there you have it. @Ange777 Mind you I am a paranoid person when it comes to playing Mafia, so if you're asking me what do I think, I would say Mordanis appears to be more scummy to me, but I also read Golbat's play as slightly scummy. However I did not go after Golbat lynch because Mordanis is after Golbat, and I don't see both Mordanis and Golbat being scums together. Hence I logically assume Golbat's is a townie playing badly. (Ignoring WIFOM/bussing) Since someone else (you) flashed Golbat out, I would also like take the opportunity pressure Golbat clearing my doubts. @Golbat As of now, I am letting you slide. I am not building a case on you, merely wanting you to convince me why Mordanis isn't what I think he is. I am heading home now, will be back within an hour. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady I skimmed through Shady's filter since other people has rise suspicion, and I found this: I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. I honestly dislike this. It seems like he is pushing to lynch Golbat if Mordanis flips town. Is there something I missed? How are you convinced that scum must be in one of them? For all I know it is possible that both could flip town. I have came out with 2 explanation: A town Shady could have just simply overlooked this possibility, while a scum Shady could be trying to get 2 mislynch knowing both are town.I think both scenarios are equally plausible. It also seems like he is advertising "lynching the other player if one flips town" all over his post. However, it also make me thinks that it is too careless for a scum Shady to do this. TL;DR I am indifferent about Shady's alignment @Golbat The thing that raised my brows is his sudden backing off Mordanis without a satisfying reason. He do stated that he stood back and realized he is rushing towards things. However, this does not automatically discredit the scummy traits we caught on Mordanis. That said, I believe that he is being honest about his feelings and it is reasonable for him to back off. TL;DR I am not comfortable with lynching Golbat @Mordanis I think you misunderstood me. I was asking why do you need to mention if someone is blue or not. I am not saying you're trying to lynch a "blue". I am suspicious of you because you actually care who is blue. I see this as mainly scum motivated. Also, this is a list of things I based my suspicion on you.
Like I mentioned, your first post actually gives me a slight town read on you despite it is based on a far fetched reason, and being the first to make a case that's actually a town favoured trait. However, your later posts shows that you are not ready to back down from your weak case, and go so far as to say something like "Kei must not be Blue", why would you even care if Kei is blue or not? Even in the Townie PoV I suggested in my list, you are trying to say it is okay to lynch Kei, which is anti-town at best. We lynch people because he acted scummy and is possible scum, not because you think it is "okay" to lynch him. You also mentioned you never wanted to lynch Kei. That totally took out the "Townie PoV" I suggested, which means you are trying to hunt for blue roles, unless you can provide me with another reason why Townie would want to go "Player X is not a Blue". I personally thinks it is a scum slip on your part. TL;DR I think Mordanis is the best lynch candidate right now Also, I would like to call out MrMedic, Obvs and aRyuujin. While I am not saying these three people must be scum, I hope they contribute more so we can hear more from them. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I disagree that we should focus on lynching lurkers at this point of time. We have better lynch targets out there, so I suggest we focus on them. The problem with lynching lurkers day 1 is that it is much harder to make the correct call this early on. Later into the game, townies get more information so we can make a better decision when it comes to low content poster. Also, when it comes to lurking, there are two types of them: 1) Those that post very little, and 2) those that post a lot of junk post. I suggest we drop the lynch lurker discussion and go on scumhunting. It is fine if you want to call out a lurker but with better evidence other than "he lurks". The first successful lynch we got in my last game was a lurker, and despite having very little post count they are all really scummy. The reason you voted aRyuujin also fits in a few other players, MrMedic, Keirathi and Zorkmid to name a few. You addressed one more point why you intend to lynch him instead of the others:
I don't think you should pursue a aRyuujin lynch as of now, a few players have argue that they are not in favor of a lurker lynch (That includes me). I skimmed through his post and the scummy thing I got off him is his poems, which he stopped doing. Current Situation That said, I am feeling very uncomfortable with how the game is progressing. Compare to my first game, the activity level is really poor, and the "active posts" were mostly about Mordanis, Golbat and Shady, based on what has been brought up since 24 hours ago. Also, I did not count, but the impression I got was that is set to be lynched. I feel discouraged because I read Golbat is the least scummy one, of all 3. So I did a re-read on all their filters. Shady I went through Shady's post. Skimming through his filter reminded me of this eerie feeling when I read about his policies and advices, which a few other players have highlighted, so I am not going to repeat after them. There are also one other post in his filter that I am not a big fan of: I'd go with Golbat right now as I think lynching him does one of two things: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure Like I said, our focus is to lynch a scum, not what happens if player x flips scum. This is the kind of post that got Scum killed in my first game. However, the severity aren't as bad as the one since it is not a list of "what if we kill this player". Also, although my last game has a successful day 1 lynch, I thought Shady just missed it since there are so many games out there. However, Mordanis' did a list of day 1 lynch and from there I saw day 1 scum lynch is not as uncommon as stated. I originally think Shady's willingness to do his research on other games is a townie trait, and I did not put my pressure on him because of this. However, with this new information, I believe Shady lied. TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. Golbat After re-reading Golbat's filter, my stance on Golbat is townie remain unchanged. Here is my defence for him. Golbat reminds me of my first game. I basically was wishy-washy because I believe we shouldn't jump to conclusions and town is going after me because of that. I spent most of my entire day 1 defending myself. Someone mentioned Golbat spent most of his time explaining why he is town. I say this is a normal newbie townie reaction when people is after you. Golbat's pulling out of Mordanis' case is his biggest scum tell. However, follow this logic: Assuming scum Golbat. Why would he pull out? There are 3 more players after Mordanis if I am not wrong. Assuming Mordanis is town, he could have easily gotten a mislynch. Also, if Golbat is red, pulling out means he would not want to associate himself for pushing for a mislynch. Why would he blatantly say that? So that all of you would jump on him? Town sided Golbat would fit in this behaviour. However I also want to add that lynching aRyuujin could potentially be a boon to town because his writing in haiku is really really annoying and despite vomiting poems all over the thread, he has hardly said anything original or useful. I maintain my position that our focus is to lynch a scum, nothing else. However, reading through this thread I found quite a few players doing it, and obviously they all can't be scum. I suggest focus on scum hunting with what information we have now, instead of thinking what information we could get if we lynch the person TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. Mordanis His post has improved after the ones that accuse Kei for being not blue. Also, he went so far as to check on other games just to find out if Shady is lying, suggested that he is willing to go through the trouble to scum hunt someone for what he said. There is also scum sided explanation: he could be a scum over-committed to twist every word to get a mislynch. However, I think the later is less plausible. With him being the first one to start the scum hunt game, I am willing to overlook the part where he "cares about who is not blue". TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now As the dead line is approaching, I suggest we narrow down the lynch targets. I believe we need at least 7 votes to lynch. I am strongly against no-lynch. That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands based on the reasoning above. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady While your defence sounded solid, it comes to do whether if we believes if you are lying about the statistics or not. While I don't find it hard to believe, the problem I had with your post is that you believe random lynch would benefit the town better than actual scum-hunting-based lynch. + Show Spoiler + So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing: Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Proof check edit: I re-read and realized you could be saying that statistically speaking you should be able to find more successful case than none. With this explanation, given that you are not lying, it makes me feel very bad to leave my vote on you right now. Also, while I only noticed when Ange brought it up, he has pointed out that contradiction you made. Although I don't believe contradictions were scum tells, I would like you to explain why Golbat and Mordanis can't both be town? The only conclusion I could draw from this is that they (appears to) not trust each other. @Golbat Re-reading his filters makes me worry. While I still believe he has the least chance to flip scum as compare to Shady or Mordanis, the cases he writes were mainly already raised by a previous person. (Other than Mordanis, which he retracted) Also, there are little follow up to the cases he post. It seems like he thinks it is not important, especially when he kept reminding us that he is a newbie previously. (Which he stepped away from now) No matter what side he plays I must acknowledge that at best it is anti-town. However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady I believe you meant to say if Mordanis flips green then Golbat looks really scummy since he is the first to bring out a case on him, and Golbat looks scummy to me, too. but no vice versa. I am really sensitive to posts like this. "So you think [b]player X[b] is scum. We will lynch you, and if you are innocent, then we will believe you and lynch him later". I know this is off by a bit, since you actually have more argument that that, but such logic is so easy overlooked and scums love to make use of silly logic like these, and make a second easy mislynch. @Golbat Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely agreed upon. I hope I just suck and Golbat actually flips red. I am off to bed, later. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I will address Ange and Kei. Post this so you guys know its coming. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
EBWOP: @Golbat Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
It's 3am right now so I am skimming through goodkarma's filter and give an general impression: hope you don't mind. Please do ask if you need me to elaborate on any particular detail: While I disagree with his lurker lynching policy, he is consistent with it and follow through with pressuring lurkers. One thing that raises my eyebrow is that he decided to go after aRyuujin and aRyuujin only, when there are several other players that is also lurking hard(There might be explanation that I missed). Also, I dislike how he lightly dismisses Mordanis' case, totally ignored Shady's (well, I guess shady's far from being a lurker) and most importantly, ignored Golbat's case right until the end. If Golbat flips scum I might have something to say about it, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. @Kei He could be lying about trying to look for the games, but I would be lying if I say I checked using the filter he suggested. However, my point is that he seems to assert the notion that random lynch is actually better than scum-hunting lynch, which during my proof read I realized he might have meant something entirely different. I added that after I concluded that Golbat is less likely to be scum, and decided not to change my vote. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Golbat, + Show Spoiler + my advise to you is to do everything to stay alive as blue. Defend defend and DEFEND yourself. It is okay to continue your scumhunt too with minimum-defence, but don't make flip flop around making weak cases. Also, be confident in your defence. You know you are a townie, so every "Scummy" thing people pointed out can be interpreted to be town motivated. Don't just go "I am a newb so that is a newb mistake". Just state why you do what you do instead, honestly, and it is 100 times better than "I am a newb". GG Golbat, I hope you learn something and get something out of this. I looked through the night post and I think people should be careful of what they say during the night. I am not discouraging discussion here but in my last game, the person who got killed is always the one with the wrong case, and scum used that to push mislynch after mislynch. A couple blue advise @Medic should be on the person they think is less scummy/more helpful to town. @Cops should be checking on lurkers. I am in favor of Shady's logic about "loud scum". @Roleblocker - As discussed, random blocking could end up blocking a fellow blue, so it is advisable to not use your ability unless you are sure of the scum. @Vig - If there is another one, reserve your bullet unless you are 100% sure someone is scum. Please correct me if the advise given was wrong. I just woke up and I need to get some food. I will go through the day post again when I am back with the information we got now - Golbat flip blue. I hope everyone else do the same. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
went through a few filters would like to throw out a few points I noticed, in case I die. @Keirathi After going through Kei's filter, goodkarma's case on Kei made much more sense. Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case. (Note: I directly copy paste text so text formatting is not preserved) To be fair, he said he looked through 20 mafia games (which I assumed was an exaggeration, but I'll let him clarify), not that he looked through the *LAST* 20 games, or specifically looked at newbie games. Overall, I'm leaning townie on Shady despite the case against him. He feels like a townie getting caught up in wild conspiracy/connection theories rather than a scum. I don't think scum can be quite that obvious about it, especially this early into day 1. @goodkarma: I am not going to post his entire filter, look at his filter and I would be surprised if you don't agree with me.I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him This is the only post where I found him writing a case I'm not sure what time I'll be able to get on tomorrow because my grandpa was put in the hospital today, so I want to lay out my cases for today preemptively so that people have time to discuss them. Golbat (as an aside, am I the only person that has trouble typing Golbat instead of Goldbat?) :[ The only reasoning he gave for hopping on the Mordanis vote was + Show Spoiler +. Saying "that's scummy because I read it was supposed to be scummy!" isn't really making a case. Minor point, but he said + Show Spoiler +, then still voted for Mordanis before everyone has posted. I understand that the vote was in response to Mordanis' second big post, but still inconsistent. Another mintor point, since he refuted it, but in his list post, he called out Mordanis for and OMGUS vote against him, but in the same post he questions why I didn't make an OMGUS case against Mordanis for his early case on me+ Show Spoiler +, despite the fact that I defended myself both times. No convictions in his reads, giving himself an out if he is wrong + Show Spoiler + He's so wishy-washy there, even though just 2.5 hours before he had said + Show Spoiler + Along the same line of being flip-floppy, as soon as anyone questioned his vote, he immediately hopped off of the Mordanis vote and asserted that it was only because he was an over-zealous noob + Show Spoiler + Repeatedly uses being a noob to excuse his play. We are all noobs, it's not an excuse. Throwing it around like that just feels like a desperate attempt to correct your mistakes. Along the same lines, I find it scummy that he repeatedly feels the need to proclaim his townie status. EVERYONE is going to say that they are townie, so repeating it a bunch of times to sheep town into believing it doesn't necessarily make it true. I used a similar argument to nail Promethelax as scum in Newbie XIX after he kept repeating that he was townie over and over again in the thread. From his post responding to karma: + Show Spoiler + Didn't he do the same thing (cast suspicion on MrMedic) in his big list post? Yes, yes he did + Show Spoiler + Ryu pointed this out, but I just want to expand on it. Farther down in the same post, he said + Show Spoiler + So he say this can be an inconsistency? Then why has he done it not once, but TWICE? + Show Spoiler + While I don't believe that saying you're willing to change your mind in the light of new evidence is necessarily inconsistent, I don't get how you can call someone else out for doing something that you are doing yourself. Two other people that I am minorly interested in: goodkarma I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Mordanis While I don't find his initial case against me particularly suspicious (other than the fact that it was pure WIFOM) because it could reasonably have been made by either town or mafia, he hasn't full escaped my notice. He repeatedly tried to assert that I wasn't blue. What good is that information to town, and why did he feel the need to point it out? Town never has a reason to "blue hunt", but scum always does. I really feel like Golbat is our best chance of flipping scum at the moment, so: ##Vote Golbat Also, this post gives me a "funny" feeling: Also aRyuujin, alan, Obvious, and Prom: you guys have overall been pretty quiet comparatively as well. At least you guys have posted cases, but you really need to step up your amount of input. EVERYONE needs to be giving reads as much as possible. Being wrong isn't a crime, but sitting back and letting others lead the discussion just means you have less "town power" and people are going to be more hesitant to listen to what you have to say when you do randomly decide to chime in. While there is nothing wrong to urge other players to contribute, I feel uneasy when this comes from a person where his filter consist of one case against players that are already being presented, and the rest of them were mostly him passively commenting on other people's cases, I feel like there is plausible + Show Spoiler + although speculative Keirathi also said this: I'm not going to make bad cases just to put pressure on people. Like I also said, making cases is what keeps the game moving, but when they are just bad cases you give the scum ammunition to push their own agendas. Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? @MrMedic I hope you don't miss your next vote, and since you claimed you are going to be free, (And I doubt scums would target you if you aren't one yourself), I would like to see more post from you in day 2. Don't worry, if you are town, just post when you see someone doing something scummy, and don't wait for another person to say it first: It will almost paint you in the wrong light. I refrained from looking at Shady Sands and Mordanis because the filters that I have been reading the entire time was theirs + Golbat's. I noticed Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. One thing that is important for everyone in town to start watching for now is activity patterns and posting patterns. Scum will tend to post with an identifiable ringleader and others following in their footsteps... and they will often all make excuses about IRL commitments to assuage any doubts about odd patterns in their collective posting histories. So looks like you will be FoS me too, since I have been giving "excuses about IRL commitments"? I think it is best to declare when you're available to play so when you're being called out at least people knows you won't be around to response. That said, it's late over here so I won't be around in 8 hours, so in case I got killed, please consider my points here. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Office work is busy today so I am not able to post until now, I will take a better look at the filters once I got home. @On the NK or lack thereof I highly doubt Scums would risk a no-kill. Scum's goal is to get rid of townies and survive the day lynch. They would want to end the game quickly before town figure out who the scums are, especially in a 48 hour day/24 hour night cycle. Not killing would have meant giving town another 72 hours to figure out who they are. I know it is redundant, but If it is a medic save, then the medic now have a confirmed townie, while if it is a roleblocker, the person you block is scum. Of course, there is the possibility that both roles exist, so I would advise against outing, but it is up to you to decide. @goodkarma I think you misunderstood my advise on the "be careful with what you say". I did not suggest that we halt reads all together. There's always a chance that you get night killed and whatever you found that could be vital is forever lost. The thing that happened in my last game were a couple people posting one long case dedicated to just one player, and suggesting that we lynch them in the morning. Guess what, all of them died, and their targets subsequently mislynched. The way to prevent this is to write what you noticed based on several targets, not just one, I might add. But enough with the night talk and lets move on to scum hunting. @Kei + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 04:13 Keirathi wrote: You are right, scum can push agendas from "bad" discussion. That's exactly what I said. My point was that pointing out every little thing that you find scummy isn't helping the thread find scum, because one or two little scummy blips does not a scum make. THAT'S the reason I put my scum reads all into one big post. Its much harder for scum to refute a lot of points at one time than one or two points on multiple occasions. Also, things like my reply to goodkarma ARE scum hunting in a sense. By saying that I find people townie, I am narrowing down my suspect list. The problem I have against you is that you were not standing out nor wanting to commit to a case. You argued that you don't want to make "bad cases" in case scums make use of it. While I don't totally agree: How are we supposed to scum hunt during the day without putting the pressure on based on any little evidence we found, in the night post you changed your position and suddenly encourages us people, who made cases based on one or two scumslip, to keep up with building more cases. It seems like when you talk about not wanting to build "bad cases", you are putting yourself in a position to sit back, while encourage other players to go at against each other, and then finally build your own case based on how the discussion is going. The "refrain from building bad case" was meant to excuse yourself when people accuse you of lacking scum hunting commitment. I don't buy the "narrowing down" suspects as a form of scum hunting. I've got to go now, I study the filter extensively once I got back. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I have a question for alan133: How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please. I somehow mistaken Kei for aRyuujin. At the back of my mind Goodkarma specifically picked Kei out of the 3 lurkers in his day 1 case before switching over to Golbat, which when I looked for it found out it was actually Ryu. I apologize for my mistake and to avoid further confusion: EBWOP: On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote: @Keirathi Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case. While I apologize for the mistake, I don't think it discredit my points raised against Kei. I would like others to look into my reasoning. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On July 31 2012 00:28 Zorkmid wrote: @alan133 What do you say about Obv's case against you? The post was almost two hours before yours, but you make no mention of it. Did you just not see it? I read back and was wondering what Obvious' case, and then I saw this: + Show Spoiler + (Direct copy paste of text. Text format will be lost) First I'll take a look at alan133's posts: Some behavior analysis: consistent in his methods for determining his best scum target. His vote on Shady Sands was not willy-nilly, and he considered the cases against Golbat and Mordanis as well before casting his vote. Solid play on this end, in my opinion, at least throughout D1. On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote: However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch. At this point there were 5 votes for Golbat. Two possibilities for this rather well timed post: Town alan133 wants to make sure we don't get into a no-lynch scenario, as that gives us little to work with for actual information that can be 100% confirmed (a flip) or Scum alan133 is setting himself up to ensure a mislynch won't end up looking bad on him if he has to put his vote in as the one of the last people on the Golbat vote list. Of these two scenarios, I'm more easily convinced that alan133 is acting in the best interests of the town. I did want to mention this though if any suspicions arise regarding his votes or actions in the future. I have a question for alan133: How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please. I did answer his question, but I mistaken him to be Mordanis. Mordanis was the one who suggested we look at non-Golbat lyncher, so when I saw the big chunk of green and red text I naturally thought this was coming from Mordanis. EBWOP On July 30 2012 20:09 alan133 wrote: @ I somehow mistaken Kei for aRyuujin. At the back of my mind Goodkarma specifically picked Kei out of the 3 lurkers in his day 1 case before switching over to Golbat, which when I looked for it found out it was actually Ryu. I apologize for my mistake and to avoid further confusion: EBWOP: While I apologize for the mistake, I don't think it discredit my points raised against Kei. I would like others to look into my reasoning. I've mistaken two players twice, and in one of them I am EBWOP-ing for mistaken a player for another. I apologize for playing this poorly, I will be more careful next time. Now onto the "Alan could be a scum trying to distant himself from a mislynch". This is all based on Mordanis' "I think scum could be trying to distant himself from the mislynch". I did not vote for Golbat because his play was strikingly similar to mine in my last game, which coincidently I am also a VIG. Of course, there is no way to tell, and people who voted for Golbat has decent arguments. However, I voted for Shady because I believe he is much likely to flip scum compared to Golbat. There is no reason to not go with my read, especially when it does not risk a no-lynch. Also, I agree on Mordanis' logic. Looking back at Golbat's post, his later characteristics such as "unsure who to vote" could be easily interpreted as scummy. One scum could have easily start the bandwagon on him, and the remaining ones could have easily hide. I believe it is highly possible that there is at least one scum hiding among the non-golbat vote crowd. Following this line of logic I also realized MrMedic failed to vote, so is he in the "not on Golbat's bus" group? While I don't think this automatically qualifies him as scum, I absolutely hate players who missed a vote; there is no commitment made for us to judge such players. @Keir Seems like Keir has not replied, I noticed he is sleeping, so while I eagerly wait for his response: When I read about your night post urging other people to make cases, my impression on you is that you were scummy to try to wait for other players to chip in their cases, which allow you to judge who to go after that could have benefit scum. I went through the day 1 post up to Golbat's lynch focusing on your posts and found you it matches what I thought: your filter reveals while you were posting a lot, you did not make any hard stance against any players. You made one case which leads to your vote on Golbat, and spent most other time deflecting cases against you, and other times defending players, or trying to befriend new players. I moved over looking at your day 2 posts and found out you actually did some scum hunting on your own, which partially negate my claim that you were "not aligning early towards any scum reads". However, I am not a big fan of your "small talk" with Promethelax about a past game you guys were in. Please focus on this game only, unless you meant to mention how Promethelax plays in the past to build a case. Also, I found this: + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 16:32 Keirathi wrote: Holy cow. Nice case. This is the the kind of analysis that takes really careful combing through filters and picking up on extremely subtle patterns. I'm eagerly awaiting a response from Ange now. While some may not find this post scummy at all, it fits into my reads on you, that you "did not make a stance", "Wait for other players to talk", and then "push accordingly". I guess you did indeed imply that you agree with Mordanis' case when you say it is a nice case, but these were not very committing stance that can always be dismissed when needed. TL:DR I am not a big fan of Kei's "passive" scum hunt play that allows him to sit back and judge the direction townies headed, while possibly moulding his own stance to get the best out of scum. I would like to see Kei's response. @Shady Sands While I agree with Mordanis' logic, it feels kind of weird that Shady Sands suddenly switch from "Mordanis is very red" to "we are best friends eva!!!" + Show Spoiler + They knew how whichever candidate was up would flip, so they had the ability to determine where in the vote they would go to minimize their chance to get lynched D2. I think Mordanis hits the nail right on the head here--this is the main lens through which we should be analyzing every single D1 post. Voting order is very important here. Who joined the Golbat train, and when? Also, we all are familiar with Shady's "If Golbat is town Mordanis is very red" talk. Shady seems to forget that he is one of the main force behind Golbat lynch when he is actively selling that idea. Shady was very firm about his conviction even when other players were trying to point out why it is flawed. Somehow, all this made sense to him immediately after Mordanis' post. While I am not a big fan of accusing someone when he/she actually "changed" according to what other people have told him/her to, I argue that Mordanis' later posts is very townie and even Shady could not continue to pursuit a Mordanis lynch. This seems like "an easy way out" for Shady. One other thing I noted is that Shady Sands is not included in the "not on Golbat train" list. This smells to me like he is trying to exclude himself from the "to watch" list to shift the focus away from himself. Also, remember the "active scum" thing he mentioned? [It is late here (3:00am, started writing on 12:00am) I have to end this post ASAP, but if you need any details or quotes please ask me], it seems like he is selling himself as an plausible "active scum" (he is very active) to avoid a day 1 lynch. Also, compare his post's content of day 1 and day 2, and you see a massive drop in actual content posted. TL:DR Shady Sands looks very scummy - I believe he will flip red I am off to bed now, cheers. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 10:47 Keirathi wrote: @GK: Can I get a response to this? For reference, heres the post I got that from: + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote: Just a small update: I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same... I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him. Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too... Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...). Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town. I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made. Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. It doesn't make any sense for a townie to claim that he has reads and not share them before the night ends. If you had died, you never would have gotten to post them, and you would have completely wasted your time and hurt the thread overall. Were you completely unafraid of dying? Also, you said you would post them before the night ended in your previous post + Show Spoiler + On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote: With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. Let me answer that for you. In my night post I advise that we should be careful of what we post because scums can kill you off and make use of what you say, and twist your words without you there to clarify it. You can find multiple example in my previous game. I put my summary of my last game in a spoiler as it relates very little to this game: + Show Spoiler + We got 2 scums in first day and night. You got it right. TWO. And we lost. Everyone became so confident they go super batman mode posting wild cases and there is always this one person who post one long case against one person in the middle of the night, and they got killed. There is no way that person can defend himself against someone who is dead, and I am not gonna lie, there is always this guilt of "what if the dead guy is right?", and then you proceed to lynch that person, later, you secretly put the blame on the dead guy who posted the case when their target flip town. However, I believe by posting factual finds on multiple targets, for example, "player x votes for player y without giving his reasoning, player z jumps votes", you can prevent scums to twist it any further than that, as in, compare to "A does B, I think this is because he is scum and I think this implies C is town". While I am not saying Goodkarma must be town, I want to clarify because he is getting pressured for following my advise (although misunderstood its intent). As far as changing my position and suddenly encouraging people to make cases based on one or two scumslips after the night post, can you point out exactly where I did that. I looked back through my filter and I don't see me saying that at all, so I'd specifically like to know what post you misunderstood. Reading back I realized it is a bit of speculation, but it is this post: + Show Spoiler + MrMedic, Zorkmid: Where are you guys? We need everyone to be contributing. Can you comment on the current cases please? Also aRyuujin, alan, Obvious, and Prom: you guys have overall been pretty quiet comparatively as well. At least you guys have posted cases, but you really need to step up your amount of input. EVERYONE needs to be giving reads as much as possible. Being wrong isn't a crime, but sitting back and letting others lead the discussion just means you have less "town power" and people are going to be more hesitant to listen to what you have to say when you do randomly decide to chime in. First, you separated yourself from the crowd who stood out and post cases. When people points that out, you simply say you don't want to make cases based on one or two silly slips. I assume you are saying those who already made case were acting in this regards. You also said it might potentially lead to a bad case, which scums can make use of, so you're trying to avoid it. I saw this as a criticism against people who already made cases. When you call for other people to make case, it occurs to me; didn't you disagree with that method of scum hunting that you're avoiding from? Why are you asking for them to post now? It occurs to me that what you said about scum making use of "bad cases" is just an excuse for you to stay passive. I re-read your filter and realize I might be locked on you around conformation bias. I do notice your cases on a few people when I wrote my case on you, but I read you were merely rehashing what other people has done and you were very non-committal. Upon closer inspection the cases were actually based on cold hard facts instead of WIFOM, and you did indicate if these actions by other players were scummy or not. Your argument about compiling all evidence into one post starts to make sense and I do see townie motivation now. I would like to drop my case on you for now. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I was going through Zorkmid's and Goodkarma's filter since they seems to be the other lynch candidates. @Zorkmid I personally am not a big fan of his sudden disappearance. He later reappears twice: once to post one case on Golbat and Mordanis each using arguments that were mostly already laid out by other players, another one is to vote Golbat. His day 2 post were much better. There are more reads, but he rarely follows up. His "hostile" reaction when pressured reminded me too much of a mislynch that I am partially responsible for. Someone reacted hostilely towards a case against me that include personal attacks. I recognize this as a scum trait and posted another case on him because of it later- then he flipped town. I am incline to think this is somehow a townie trait: Dismissing WIFOM, I assume scum would be more cautious about his/her case and would want to maintain a "healthy" relations towards other players. TL:DR I am not a big fan of lynching Zork right now, but I will keep tab on him @Goodkarma My impression on him was that he has a stance on lurkers and seems like he plays to get rid of them. I don't see his posts as "trying to create noise for town". He did state his policy clearly and it does not betray the way he approaches the game in day 1. I have a null read on day 2. That is because he is mostly defending himself against people who build cases on him based on his publicly announced lynch policy. While I personally disagree with focusing on lurkers when there are already candidates out there, his case on Promethelax was not only based on his policy, but has shifted to actual scum hunting play. However, I am vary of "friendly" posts like these: + Show Spoiler + @alan: Thanks so much for this advice! This is exactly the kind I needed to hear. My concern with giving multiple suspects was more along the lines of what if one of those people is guilty and the other two are innocent? The guilty party has the strongest scum read. Wouldn't giving multiple suspects just make it easier for the mafia to get behind one of the two innocent lynch targets, than if you stuck with the person you consider most suspicious? But you suggest from actual in-game experience that only giving one player may be even more damaging when you have multiple scum reads... I can follow your line of reasoning, and can agree with it. I understand that Prox is looking for more transparency from me, and I feel that presenting an arguement like alan's would have been more helpful than tossing his vote. The reason for keeping my suspects "mysterious" is this fear that the mafia can use that list against town. While I don't think I played poorly other than messing up names twice and have poor grammar/general language skills, and last time I check I am not a 100% confirmed townie, and only scums know a person's alignment. I am not pushing a case based on one silly speculation, but If you're town sided, letting your guard down does not help. TL;DR I don't find goodkarma as scummy as some of you has paint him in, and I don't fancy lynching him @Shady Sands I saw your post about your brother. I hope everything's fine. I would like you to look at my case against you, and post a defence when you are available. However, you can ignore the argument where I said you were lurking in day 2 as it seems like you have a legit reason. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=27#525 That said, I believe Shady Sands is still scummy based on his day 1 play. I will look at Promethelax's filter because it seems like he is set to be lynched. @Promethelax I don't have a deep impression on him. Back in my mind he posted a lot of fluffs but I didn't pay much attention to him since he seems to agree with my reads (at least about Shady) The people he has a scum read in two in-game days is Shady and Goodkarma. That's about 5-6 post spent in about He stays away from Mordanis and Golbat's cases dismissing them as "two player OMGUSing each other". I have to admit Golbat's play was not the best, what makes him so sure about their alignment? I find Promethelax a bit "too trusting". Ryu was posting in haik.. poems. I did not comment on it as he stopped pretty soon. I believe scums could easily twist town Ryu's words while scum Ryu can twist around his own words to cover his slips. Promethelax seems to be okay with it. Also, I couldn't help but notice his buddying up Keir. He claims he has an explanation for that and will post it before the end of night 2. I don't buy it. As far as I know he was the one who was after Goodkarma hiding his "mystery suspect". I know this is in different context, but I believe having a "mystery reason" to be "revealed" after the day lynch (so don't lynch me) is just as bad. I know other players has mentioned it, but the "town ring" thing he posted seemed very suggestive. He went so far as to dismiss it as a joke, which I strongly dislike. I believe making jokes are bad, it leaves up a lot of room for interpretation, and a scum player can always claim they were joking about something that said which is scummy. I deem Promethelax's passive lurking, non committal cases, friendly attitude and general bad play to be very scummy, in fact, reminds me a lot of the last scum that we never caught in my last game. ##vote: Promethelax | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@JingleHell Welcome to the game. I saw your play in NMM XXI and I am a big fan of it. I hope your replacement will fire up the town's activity and can provide a new perspective to town, that is if you are a part of us, which I hope you are. @Shady Sands Unless I missed it and he has not addressed my accusation on him. I know that he have his brother issue and all for missing out entirely on Day 2, so I am reserving judgement until he posted more. I won't be around for the rest of the 12 hours or more. There is a certificate exam I need to take soon and I need to study for it. If I failed I would have around 100 USD subtracted from my monthly pay because employees have to pay for the examination fees if they failed. That is a huge amount if you're living in Malaysia. I will try to chip in my thoughts before the day 3 post. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady Sands Shady is confirmed Mason. His "Kei's Will" post is minutes after the day post, so I doubt he could write all that up while molding it to fit Kei's post history in that short time. @goodkarma I'll lightly comment on my vote on Promethelax over Shady day 2: I backed off Shady after I am convinced that Promethelax is scum. My biggest problem with Shady is his non-existence Day 2 presence and his sudden change of view of Mordanis. Later he came back with a (I assume valid) reason that I have little doubts of, which took away some of the weight in my case. I did not pay much attention on Promethelax until that one post. I spent a long time writing his case and it convinced me he was scummier. Look at my case on him for clarification. Mind you it took around 2 hours for me to come out with all those, and lynch time is extremely close, so I made no mention of why he is the better lynch target in there. Current Situation It sucks when everyone I have a read on flips town, or is a confirmed townie. I will need to reset my reads and do a reassessment of everyone based on what we have now. I believe we have enough information so it should be much easier to pin point a scum today. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Mordanis Your argument about me "soft-defending" people The only person I recall myself soft-defending was Golbat. I believe he was the less scummy among all 3 first-day lynch candidate. I explicitly said that he plays similar to my previous game, and was inclined to not lynch him. I don't recall myself calling him scummy, other than maybe this :"I agree that his play was anti-town". Remember, we are lynching scum, not bad townies. About "X is scummy but Y is scummier so vote Y" If you are referring to my Promethelax vote over Shady's, I don't see a problem with that. Why would you vote for someone that is less scummy? I know my late vote on Promethelax made me looks a lot like a scum bandwagon, but I started writing my case on Promethelax a few hours ago. I was finishing my Zorkmid, Goodkarma and Shady post and I intended to vote Shady, but when I refreshed the page I saw 3 votes on Promethelax, there when I spent another 2 hours to analyse and wrote my analysis on him. There's where you found my "contradiction". I started with very little impression on Promethelax and ended up thinking he is more scummy. I suggest you read into my reasoning in between my case on him. That was over a few hour span, believe it or not, and time was short. Also, I apologize if you feel like my day 2/night 2 activity is not up to standard. I was indeed very busy over the weekdays. Meetings to attend, certificates to take, but enough excuses. I have just passed my certificate examination and have tonnes of time for the game now. However, due to my typing speed, it will take a long time for me to write a post. Believe it or not, the above text took me 1 hour and a half to complete. I need to drive a friend somewhere, so I won't be back in 2 hours. But I will do this in the future: I will write a Summary and my intention so people knows when I started my post. I am working on a post, and this is my agenda
And thats another 30 minutes. I will be back. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On August 02 2012 20:58 Ange777 wrote: @alan: Did you see my post about Zork's scumslip? Yes, I saw it right after I finished writing my defence against Mordanis, but I did not comment on it as I don't follow the logic, and I am in a rush out. Do you mind explaining where the slip is? I read that as:- "Saying something like that is scummy. No green or blue will say this. I won't say it because it is so scummy to say it." While I am not a big fan of the over-exaggeration on the "scumminess" of just one phrase, I don't see the slip. Why would town want to say something that he thinks is "scummy"? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Why I thought he was “cleared” on day 2 This is based on his day 1 play. He was the first person who started the scum hunting, albeit with an extremely weak case on Keir, I dismissed that as I thought scum would not want to stand out like that in the spot light, while starting up what would benefit town greatly. + Show Spoiler + Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green Also, he went so far to check on Shady Sand’s claim about finding the rate of successful Day 1 lynches. At that time I thought it was an indication of a hardworking townie, and I don’t see any scum motivation in this. Scum would want to distract us from facts, deny us information, or generally, create distortion, so I thought. Other than that, reading his filters strikes me as him trying to be as transparent as possible; posting every single thought that pop up to his mind, and the advices given was generally good. What made me change my mind? It started from here in a case he has written against me: The whole case is here in case you are interested. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=37#724 While I responded to his post, I did a quick look at his filter and my impression is that all his advises for scumhunting is directly opposite to what he has done in the past. The first seems like he's just trying to jump on the bandwagon, the second and third contradicting seem like a way to try to make himself sound like he was more sure of his case than he really was. Obviously admitting that you think a case is weak hasn't worked out too well for me, but to me this seems like he was just trying to avoid pressure once Prom flips by trying to make a solid case. So you openly admit you aren’t sure about a Promethelax lynch, but you voted for him anyway, arguing there are no other stronger reads than him. You get called out for it. Now you suggest doing the opposite is equally scummy. I find my reasoning for voting Promethelax is reasonably solid. My “contradiction” isn’t “contradiction” at all given that I have written one of them before I read the filter, and another one, after. If you think otherwise, why don’t you attack my arguments instead? Another similar case can be found here: + Show Spoiler + Ok, so hopefully you guys aren't so sure I'm scummy you'll hear me out. Part of the reason that I was having trouble coming up with reads D2 is that I had no solid read on what strategy the scum were trying to use. Obviously they were trying to win which includes forcing mislynches and using their kp, but there is so much more to scum strategy. They could be trying to snipe blues, stall scum lynches as long as possible, force a few mislynches before having one blatant scum slip that destroys all lines of discussion, in hopes of "starting anew", bussing, etc. The playstyle for each would be different, so what traits would the scum exhibit? In this way the lack of a KP N1 actually harmed my analysis, as I couldn't think what scum traits to hunt for. Then they kill Keir. As I had mentioned earlier, I don't think Keir's play matched that of a blue, so the scum weren't trying to blue-snipe. Keir had no really solid outstanding cases, so they weren't looking to take pressure off themselves. Keir was, however, an even tempered and logical townie. Scum seem to be trying to destabilize town, either to put themselves in "mayor" position, or to simply eliminate a player whom few seemed to be suspicious of. The more everyone is suspicious of everyone, the less obvious scum slips are. Alternately, Keir may have been a random kp designed to simply keep town from getting more information. Traits that should be looked for then are people who are trying to gain a position of confidence, or active scum, or hardcore-lurking scum. I don't really think anyone is in a position of trust except for SS. It would have been hypothetically possible for scum to have a "will" written out beforehand, with just the name needing to be changed. The will was posted 12 minutes after the flip, and it contains the people whom he mistrusted, and some other things. If scum were to fake one of these, it would require only one "will" written per night. Assuming the broken link (when I click on the link that was provided in the will, I get a fun TL broken link message) actually provides pretty good evidence, SS is pretty much cleared. Analytical-Active scum tend to try to out-logic their opponents. Players whose playstyle has been dominated by arguing in pure logic include: No one. Maybe JH at this point, but he's new. Ange, Obvious, Alan, GK, Aryuu, Zork and myself don't fit. The first 5 because they haven't really posted a case, and myself because I've made some pretty bad mistakes. Over-pushing the thing about Keir not being blue, shitty D2 play, and no content N2 when people said I would seem really scummy if I started to go inactive are really dumb mistakes. Mistakes that I should not have made, but they don't fit the motives for an analytical-active scum. This leaves inactive scum. I am most sure there will be at least one inactive scum 1.) because inactivity by its nature contributes no content, and scum have been trying to deprive us of content, and 2.) there's been basically no pressure on lurkers except for the votes on Aryuu. The main thing I find scummy about GK's play (his timing for policy-talking about lurkers when there was an active scum-hunting conversation happening) has already been discussed, so I'll move on to my other reads. This huge chunk of text can be summarized here: + Show Spoiler + I hope you listen to me. Scum kills Kier. Kier is clam and logical and does not seem blue. Scums’ goal seems to be getting rid of strong townie reads. We can safely assume scums were the active posters trying to lead town, or the lurking scum letting town kill each other. BTW Shady is cleared. However, besides Jingle, ME and everyone else who were active cannot be Analytical-Active scum, since we are playing badly and did not really post a case. (what?) This leaves inactive scum. Inactive scums were the ones who post no content, therefore I find Goodkarma pushing on lurker scummy. I wrote a case on him so I won’t repeat. Notice how he maneuver around his analysis suggesting he cannot be scum? Also, re-reading the night 1 analysis he posted: + Show Spoiler + Anyways, I've been enlisted to do a ton of work and I don't have time to do much analyzing, but I have had more time away from the computer to think. The main goals of the mafia for the D1 lynch were to force a mislynch (unless they are really bad at bussing :D), and put themselves in a position where they can relatively easily avoid a D2 lynch. They knew how whichever candidate was up would flip, so they had the ability to determine where in the vote they would go to minimize their chance to get lynched D2. The people who didn't vote for Golbat are DarthP, Alan, Obvious, Promethelax, and Golbat himself. Darth was tunelling me all day, Alan defended Golbat, Obvious posted two real posts, and Promethelax's play is confusing me too much right now. Right now, Alan, Obvious, and Promethelax are the people I'll be looking at the most. Obvious has the perfect excuses in line (I was away and I voted for Shady), Alan's soft defenses strike me as suspicious (This player seems kind of scummy, but this player seems much more scummy, so vote for him), and I really need to figure out what Promethelax has been trying to accomplish. Sorry again for the brevity, I hope someone else will be able to use this if I die tonight :C This is basically him saying “look at people who did not vote for Golbat, I am pretty sure scum is in there.” While I agree on the circumstances and the logic of his post, I also noticed he voted for Golbat himself. I did not suspect much when I first saw this, but now it seems to me Mordanis is deliberately trying to take attention away from himself. Mordanis' tips and/or analysis hides subtle suggestions that he himself is not a scum. His general inactivity in day 2 contrast greatly with his active day 1 posts. There are people going after him for these reasons, but I would like to add: + Show Spoiler + Speculation: This could due to the no-kill in night 1. From this post In this way the lack of a KP N1 actually harmed my analysis, we can see he is trying to justify his inactivity by stating there is a no kill. Can't believe that all took 3 hours I won't be able to post more. Its almost 3 am and I really need some shut-eyes. These arguments I wrote, I believe, was not covered, but please refer to other people's case on him for:
Also, I am not able to comment on, perhaps lightly: I intend to point out Obvious's scummy behaviour -emphasizing on his non-vote on Promethelax -His OMGUS against pressure I intend to point out Zorkmid's scummy behaviour -Lurkiness in day 1 -His cases based on one liners I intend to point out aRyu's scummy behaviour -(What do you call those again?) Poems writing in day 1. -Disappeared throughout day 2 and not voting -Disappears again after posting one case in day 3 All those took 15 minutes, that's without re-checking filters for confirmation, and impression based on the back of my mind. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Also, ##vote: Mordanis | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Mordanis I am disappointed. No one ever look at any case I wrote. Are they that bad? Am I being ignored? No. Not even Mordanis feels he needs to waste his energy posting a defence. Do you think it suck so bad it does not even matter, or you are just ignoring it, like how you have been ignoring other people's case on you, for being widely inactive, and over-apologetic. Why was MY post never taken seriously all the time? Do I suck that bad? Why are you ignoring my defence on your case against me? Did you just randomly pick two players and attack them? Once one of them sparked a Zorkmid bandwagon you totally forgotten about me? Do I still deserve my FOS or not? Did my defence cleared myself out of doubt or not? Why are you playing in such a way? You started the first ever case, and lingers on it despite you're calling yourself "trying to spark the scumhunt?" Why do you switch to Golbat, Shady and Golbat again? Are you desperate to hunt scum, or are you desperate to @Ange Yes. I saw your case on Zork. I don't see the OBVIOUS SCUM SLIP. Your arguments on him was that he is wishy-washy, never built a real case himself, which yourself suggested that it satisfies a whole lot of players in this particular game. Then you jumped to OMG I MISSED SCUM SLIP. I failed to understand how speaking from a thrid-person's PoV imply you aren't part of that person's circle? SO you are also suggesting Mordanis must not be scum because he is speaking from a thrid-person's PoV every single time he talk about scum's possible motivation? + Show Spoiler + I can't believe I missed that TOWN SLIP! @Zorkmid What the heck is your game? Where Why did you sheep? Why were your cases a rehash of everyone else's case? Where is your own reads? You and all the lurkers are all hurting town, or is being INCREDIBLY LAZY SCUMS. @JingleHell + Show Spoiler + What the hell? What's up with that most painfully narrow tunnel I have ever seen? Why do you make me regret saying I adore your play? How does:
Why do he needs to explain a townie motive? How do you explain one? What motive could he have, at all. How about, give me a townie motive for tunnelling and voting on such a ridiculous case? I don't see a townie motive. Mind explaining yourself? I suggest you drop your case on Ange, and votes one of the candidates here instead, as it is very possible that there is a SCUM in here. + Show Spoiler + Oh wait I need to explain a townie motivation. How about REDUCING THE RISK OF GETTING A NO LYNCH?. In all seriousness, mind posting something that is other than: + Show Spoiler + Target's latest defence against No! You did not explain a town motive! I vote you ##v0t3 example1 over a thousand times? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
ActIvity seeMs woefully slow. I guess that Most of you Are on diFferent clocks that I Am. Done. ##Unvote: Mordanis ##Vote: Zorkmid | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Jingle Why did I not vote for Zork Because Mordanis has not answered my case against him, and I don't think it is entirely OMGUS and has some valid point in it. Disagree if you want, but at that moment I think Mordanis is than Zork. On August 04 2012 07:41 JingleHell wrote: Also, look through Zorkmid's filter. If you'll notice, there's one person who swapped even later than I did, who even I suspect, who Zorkmid NEVER seemed to be interested in, despite this player being in the game the whole time. That's Alan. Zork was never really interested in anyone except for maybe GoodKarma, if I was not wrong? Zork's "breadcrumb". Judging from the content of the breadcrumb and the location of the post he quoted for the breadcrumb, it is obvious to me this is a scum trying to take down a blue with him. Alan starts by wanting to discuss tons of policy. Link If you noticed that was my first post, and it was fairly early in the game with little scum hunting going on. Huge WIFOM, no commitment. Link I said him starting the scum hunting is a huge townie trait for him, suggest it could be WIFOMed into saying it has scum motivation, but I did not use them in my argument. Wishy Washy on Golbat, creates distance from a mislynch. Link I defended Golbat and push for Shady lynch. I believe Shady is scum while Golbat is playing badly as a newbie town, so I am pushing for a Shady lynch. The "creating distance" is another fantasy of yours. Defends Zork lightly. Link I thought Zork's angry reaction was a town trait. I made my stance on him based on that. Kisses up a little, and references a game where out of several cases made, I only had a 50% scum lynch record. Link I was following that game because I missed it, and my impression was you caught the first scum. Scum was in a fairly strong position right now and I was hoping you to tip the balance. OMGUS against Mord Link I don't think this is entirely OMGUS. My case on him was not based on my own speculation or fantasies. It is based on reading his filter in general, and the small things that I picked up along the way. How about stating a townie motivation for:
| ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I am in the middle of writing a defence on Mordanis, in fact I started an hour ago, gimme a sec. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On August 04 2012 19:36 Mordanis wrote: GOGOGOGOGO Town!! @SS Before I begin, I want to question how you can praise Ange (when she even took inspiration from GK, so if you're looking for the first suspicion D3 against Zork, its GK) for her case + call her confirmed townie and condemn me for "leading a hit squad that almost forced a no-lynch"? You're making me sad TT... Also, the fact that so many people are convinced that scum wouldn't bus one of their one at this point means that it was probably the best play for them, regardless of what really happened. I'm not willing to dismiss any sort of bussing yet. Moving on, I come to back to my case against Alan. Once again, Alan does one of his massive posts where he soft-defends two players and "pushes" the third. The third in this case was Prom. Interestingly, Alan picks up the "emotion" post that I said seemed contrived and used it as a way to meta-soft-defend Zork. Keir picked up on this post too, and he's flipped town, so this isn't a definite case, but the anecdote from the previous game is exactly the kind of non-stated psychological manipulations I've been looking for in scum. It isn't anything you can argue with, but it's something that begs to be sympathized with. Also, scum who contrive posts to exude "good townie frustration" would likely want their scumbuddies to follow through and say that frustration is a townie trait, but this is getting into the realm of WIFOM. I see this as motivated by scum goals, as it isn't anything that can come back to bite him in the ass until Zork flips, defends scum, and it doesn't help hunt scum. Another thing that struck me as scummy about his play is his attempt to simultaneously jump on my bandwagon and OMGUS me. He claims that it was not purely an OMGUS, but he voted me before posting any analysis. He sticks to his vote for me based on my not defending myself from his case, + Show Spoiler [I digress] + Just as an aside, If I had defended myself by picking apart every line of every accusation posted against me, I'd never have done anything but defend myself, which wouldn't have helped town. Instead I defended myself against the two main cases, and since there were basically no counter-arguments, and then hunted and found scum. + Show Spoiler + On August 03 2012 23:35 alan133 wrote: I just came back from working after hours. @Mordanis I am disappointed. No one ever look at any case I wrote. Are they that bad? Am I being ignored? No. Not even Mordanis feels he needs to waste his energy posting a defence. Do you think it suck so bad it does not even matter, or you are just ignoring it, like how you have been ignoring other people's case on you, for being widely inactive, and over-apologetic. Why was MY post never taken seriously all the time? Do I suck that bad? Why are you ignoring my defence on your case against me? Did you just randomly pick two players and attack them? Once one of them sparked a Zorkmid bandwagon you totally forgotten about me? Do I still deserve my FOS or not? Did my defence cleared myself out of doubt or not? Why are you playing in such a way? You started the first ever case, and lingers on it despite you're calling yourself "trying to spark the scumhunt?" Why do you switch to Golbat, Shady and Golbat again? Are you desperate to hunt scum, or are you desperate to @Ange Yes. I saw your case on Zork. I don't see the OBVIOUS SCUM SLIP. Your arguments on him was that he is wishy-washy, never built a real case himself, which yourself suggested that it satisfies a whole lot of players in this particular game. Then you jumped to OMG I MISSED SCUM SLIP. I failed to understand how speaking from a thrid-person's PoV imply you aren't part of that person's circle? SO you are also suggesting Mordanis must not be scum because he is speaking from a thrid-person's PoV every single time he talk about scum's possible motivation? + Show Spoiler + I can't believe I missed that TOWN SLIP! @Zorkmid What the heck is your game? Where Why did you sheep? Why were your cases a rehash of everyone else's case? Where is your own reads? You and all the lurkers are all hurting town, or is being INCREDIBLY LAZY SCUMS. @JingleHell + Show Spoiler + What the hell? What's up with that most painfully narrow tunnel I have ever seen? Why do you make me regret saying I adore your play? How does:
Why do he needs to explain a townie motive? How do you explain one? What motive could he have, at all. How about, give me a townie motive for tunnelling and voting on such a ridiculous case? I don't see a townie motive. Mind explaining yourself? I suggest you drop your case on Ange, and votes one of the candidates here instead, as it is very possible that there is a SCUM in here. + Show Spoiler + Oh wait I need to explain a townie motivation. How about REDUCING THE RISK OF GETTING A NO LYNCH?. In all seriousness, mind posting something that is other than: + Show Spoiler + Target's latest defence against No! You did not explain a town motive! I vote you ##v0t3 example1 over a thousand times? Alan: Why were you angry at Zork for playing scummily? I will address a few points: Why I am angry at Zork Before that, I was coming back from a bad day, so it might affect to the tone of that post. I got mad because the post I took hours of effort to write up, ended up being ignored. I was generally mad in that post, and not only to Zork. I was also generally referring to other lurkers, instead of just Zork. I was not mad of Zork's for posting the "scum slip", but rather, my intentions is to pressure Zork to explain his "making a big fuss out of a stupid post". I still believe Mordanis was scum and I thought he was capitalizing on Zork's bad play to get away from yet, another lynch. All I could say is I am wrong. However, re-reading that part myself, it seems like it could be interpreted to "scum alan getting mad at his scum buddy Zork for playing badly." This certainly looks like it fits scum motive, but I certainly hope you look past that. I can only say I was fairly certain of my own reads, which is unfortunately, wrong. Why I voted you before writing a case My post writing is slow. I am usually free 6 hours before the deadline, and then it takes me 2-3 hours just to write one case, which always ended up short with all the spoilers. Someone mentioned "post a FOS as early as you can so we know your intentions". I agreed, and posted the "summary" there based on my impression at that time, accompanied by my vote. Why the bring out 3 case, defend the other 2, vote for one. Most of the 3 case I brought up was people being discussed. I weight their "townieness" and "scumminess" accordingly and make the best vote. No contribution in Scumhunt That is depressing. As much as I want to say something about it, all my targets flipped townie, or is confirmed townie, or is "kinda" confirmed townie, and I even defended one scum. All I can say is that I am either unlucky, or my scumhunting ability is just bad. I am relying my reads on the previous game, but unfortunately it does not help here. I know where these FoS are coming from, so all I can now do for town is to avoid a mislynch on myself. 2nd and 3rd scum @aRyu I went through aRyu's filter and found out there is not much to draw conclusion from, other than missing out day 2 entirely. Promethelax seems to like him: aR reminds me of some really great townie players who have given themselves posting limitations (Foolishness in Aperature and Mattchew in the first MTG) if he can convey his reads and everything else in Haiku more power to him. His play thus far is slightly green to me but not far from null. However, the posting limitation he put himself is a bit "too much". He votes for Golbat day 1 and Mordanis switch Zork day 3. Where Golbat and Mordanis votes accompanied with a case. @Jingle Jingle doesn't exist until night 2. Before that there is MrMedic, and other than his post-lynch analysis/vote, there is I can't do a read on. We all knows about Jingle's tunnelling on Ange. I am not going to repeat the case here, many people has made a case based on that already. However, as annoying as his tunnelling is, it fits his meta from XXI, where he is a townie. That is, unfortunately, all I am able to gather from these two other potential day-4 lynch, at least for now. It is 1 am here, spent hours writing this. I highly doubt I will get NK'ed, so I will respond tomorrow if any more case on me. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Jingle Jingle doesn't exist until night 2. Before that there is MrMedic, and other than his post-lynch analysis/vote, there is @Ange Yes, that is how long it takes me to write a post. Unfortunately it was a defence post with minimum scum hunting. I am going to bed now, night. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Jingle Jingle doesn't exist until night 2. Before that there is MrMedic, and other than his post-lynch analysis/vote, there is | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Accidentally closed the page I was writing a post on, and had to rewrite everything. @Ange On August 05 2012 02:30 Ange777 wrote: EBWOP: If it indeed was his town meta, than I suppose it would not be far fetched to at least see him tunnel someone else right now? And yet when I see his case on you and compare it with him endlessly tunneling me I feel there is a huge huge difference. I will answer in Jingle's case below. @Jingle I hope Obvious can justify my claim about Jingle. He was in the NMM XXI, where Jingle threw him out there and ended up getting mislynched, as a blue. However, later Jingle used the same tunnelling technique and caught a scum in day 2, and is subsequently killed and flipped town. Here is his filter in that game if you want to verify it yourself. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=159089 I saw and replied Jingle's post against me. I feel like it is a summary of my entire filter and quote one or two phrase I wrote and append a scummy motivated explanation on it. I can say both townie or scum Jingle would want to convince Town to not vote him, however, blatantly throw out someone else so they shift their focus on that person instead? I am leaning it to be [red]scum motivated. If he is trying to say "If you guys trail me based on these arguments, Alan fits in more". I don't think that is entirely correct. I don't know what others think about my cases, but I made them based on reading filters and my own impression. I don't think they are full of WIFOM (Perhaps a little) but I thought they were logically sound.[/b] | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Yes, I am leaning towards a scum Jingle for the same reasons. His shift his FOS towards me seems like a desperation move to shift the focus away from himself. I think even a townie Jingle would be more careful when he suggest a new lynch, as the town's goal is to lynch scum, not just to survive. I went through aRyu's filter once and did not come out with anything else that has not been said about him already. I think his lurkiness is generally anti-town, so I did not put it in my post. @aRyu I went through the filter again and I thought I should share something I found. It is a bit WIFOM: + Show Spoiler + aRyuujin/MrMedic Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Here seems like aRyu is kicking MrMedic(Jingle's predecessor) out for sheeping on DP. Ignoring WIFOM, it is unlikely scum aRyu and scum MrMedic (now Jingle) interacts publicly in such a manner in such an early stage. I would say if one of them is scum, the other is kind of cleared. I am not saying both can't be town (or with WIFOM, scum), but it won't make sense if both are town, unless there is some ballsy bussing maneuver going on in day 3. @DarthPunk The conclusion I made above convinced me DarthPunk is the potential last scum, given that no bussing occurred. I went through his huge filter and was hoping to find one slip that can nail him, and have yet to find anything substantial. His blatant defences on Zorkmid is definitely scum motivated, and I know I also "defended" zorkmid, I hope you all see that I have been consistent with defending people who I thought was being called out for the wrong reasons. I would like to put my vote on VOTE## JingleHell, and FOS## DarthPunk. I believe we got this in the bag | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I started writing my case not long ago. But if you want to make the final decision, I will keep my vote on JH, but is fine with changing it to DP. Both are the scums in my eyes and it does not matter who gets lynched first. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@aRyu It did not occur to me that I am putting myself in a position to lynch you once Jingle flips town. In fact, I intend to use that as a basis to come out with a Jingle/DarthPunk scenario. If the remaining scums are in fact, in all four of us who voted for Mordanis before changing votes, and if both you and Jingle are townies, then it means me and Darth Punk are the scums. This won’t make sense, unless there is a third mafia hiding among the early Zork votes. If you think I am using this to set up a lynch on you, I am not, and I apologize if it came out that way. I don’t think there is a chance for Jingle to flip town at this point in time. @Jingle His recent post has somewhat improved; he stopped the tunnelling thing and moved on to OMGUS town. (lol) There are no follow up to my case, and no follow up to Good Karma’s either. However, his reaction to DP’s scum slip seems very believable, and the counter-vote seems to give him huge townie points. It could be another attempt to “seems pro town” by “catching” DP, as DP has gained quite a lot of FOS-momentum at that point. + Show Spoiler + WIFOM: Could it be scums trying to sacrifice another scummate so the last one can gain a more advantages spot? I think this is very unlikely, but no entirely impossible. @DarthPunk I said I could not find any scummy things to penalize him in his huge filter, how eager is he to prove me wrong. I am sure many has caught and mentioned his scum slip ever since he started defending himself. (Oh the irony) Even Jingle himself talks about his “slip”. I would like to know, why Jingle gives you a townie vibe, other than that you yourself is getting tunnelled right now? I would also like to add that that was posted before you were tunnelled, so any other reasons? No? Also, this: If shady votes for me I will vote for myself etc Well, in this case, if you are a town, you are allowing town to mislynch you-an anti-town play. If you are a scum, then LOL. Please tell me this is not a slip? If you intend to buy “townie points” with this, then you failed miserably. Town wants to lynch scum, not martyr himself to prove he is town. I am fine with voting any of these two players, but I will keep my vote on Jingle for the moment. I think we got both scums. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
GG DarthPunk. Will lightly defend Jingle's case, will be rushing to the office after this. + Show Spoiler + On August 07 2012 08:54 JingleHell wrote: This makes me look suspicious, apparently. But, minutes later... It's ok from Zork. One was stating you were tunnelling on Ange based on a bizarre over and over again, without accepting any of her defence. You may argue that she has not answered your "town motivation" question, but the scenario was already far fetched (her trying to frame you) and you even proceed to vote for her. Also, you voted for Mordanis just because Ange was voting for Zorkmid. I am not repeating your case here, but this is much scummier than just being "angry". Anyway, even if you get me lynched, you would still have a long way to go, and seeing you're a replacement and all, why don't you concede instead? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Ange 1. Pushing for a mislynch while soft-defending the lynch candidate. There is no defences for this, I indeed pushed for a mislynch on Promethelax and Mordanis, and that's it. My soft-defending "lynch candidates" were those in my eyes were bad case, or cases that I do not agree with. For instances, Mordanis' early cases for voting Kei, Jingle's tunneling on you and so on/fourth. 2. Subtly implying that his scum buddy is not as scummy as the other lynch candidate and therefore should not be voted first. And many others when there is a list of lynch candidates. I have explained this before. 3. Bussing his scum buddy when all hopes are lost to survive the next lynch himself. If you think my stance on DarthPunk was wish-washy, I do hope you actually followed my case against him WAY before the one that I said I will keep my vote on Jingle. I logically deduced DarthPunk must be scum, based on one single post on aRyujin's filter: he was kicking MrMedic out way early in the cycle, and the other Mordanis vote was either me or DarthPunk. I don't know saying: "Jingle and DarthPunk are the two scum. Lynch either of them is fine by me." @Shady I don't know what is with the claim medic thing or die, because I am not. If you want to waste a lynch on me, it is fine, but the game does not end there. I will be busy for the day, will be replying to any more cases against me much later, and add my own. I am not, but if you all are set to lynch me, please look at the other scenarios where I am not the scum. The game will go on after I flip. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I don't know how by saying: "Jingle and DarthPunk are the two scum. Lynch either of them is fine by me."is wishy-washy | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Ange So I was talking about you trying to push the Jingle lynch while stating that DarthPunk should be scum but is not more scummy than Jingle. Look at the time of the post. I have clearly stated I could not find anything any particular scumslip going through his (kind of) huge filter at that point in time. If he is scum, there should be one slip or two given his bold play. I did mention the countless times of him trying to defend Zorkmid, which I think is enough based on my logic below: You claim that through logical conclusion you deduced that DarthPunk had to be the last scum. Please tell me how? I thought I explained it cleared enough. I considered both remaining scum must be in the Mordanis lynch group. This is based on the vote timing of all players who voted for Mordanis prior to Shady's vote switch. Scum group: Me, DP, Jingle, aRyu Condition: Me is not scum. Jingle and aRyu can't both be scum. Possible outcome: Jingle/Darth or aRyu/Darth I don't know why it is so hard to follow, perhaps I should worded it more clearly. Also, if you're asking me why if I think Darth was 100% scum but did not switch votes to him, my answer: I think Jingle's play is very scummy and is almost certain to flip scum. About you giving Jingle some town cred and accusing DarthPunk in the same post as confirming that your vote stays on Jingle Me giving Jingle "town credit" was a sarcastic statement. Perhaps I should include a sarcastic tag when I say something like "Jingle's recent play is gain him more townie credit when he switched away from mindlessly tunnelling someone to OMGUS-ing sheeping townies when he was called out for not defending himself" If you think I intentionally misunderstood your arguments against me, I am not. If you have any more problem with me just say it, but I suggest you start looking at someone else since you said everyone else in your scum list died or is a "strong" townie. Given my condition I doubt any amount of defence will prevent my lynch. @Others I am not going to spend too much time defending myself. I have put myself in a bad position. Mind that everytime I come back to the thread there're always other cases already. If you think I never wrote any substantial case, I am disappointed. I consciously look for points that has not been brought up before and put them on the table, and weight accordingly. These posts took me hours to write and people IGNORE it entirely, and just to come back and say they are wishy-washy and unsubstantial or generally, is meaningless. @The last scum Something does not add up. I seriously don't understand what is happening right now, if anyone wants to attack me more, try not to, but mind you you are only attacking a set-to-be-lynched townie. I could not find any scum reads, I couldn't make sense of the whole Mordanis/Darth Punk lynch situation. I looked at Ange's filter and she was one of them who started the Zork train. I looked at Karma and he can easily tip the balance towards a Mordanis lynch safely if he wishes to. I look at Jingle and aRyu and I cannot say I don't recognize them to be the main driving force behind DarthPunk's lynch, and Obvious, who is Obviously dead, and lastly Shady, who is a confirmed townie. I see that all evidence is pointing towards me to be the last scum, hell, I would have voted myself if I am not myself. I hope you guys can see past that in the case that I flip town, and don't waste your discussion on how to cook me for dinner. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I spent 3 hours writing the summary of the game from my PoV, and the my browser crashed ._. I couldn't spend another 3 hours on this, so I am going to address lightly what I said. My Strategy
Day 1 I defended Golbat hoping to gain some towncred, and even if they see through this, I had good reasons to defend him: Why would scum Golbat reconsider his vote when so many others has voted for the same person? Night 1 Picked Kei for kill, picked non to block. No block reasons being there is no clear target to block, and I don't want town to know a role blocker exist. Kill Kei: reasons being there is some "blue" signs, and safe kill (so we thought): not particularly active, not particularly townie in our eyes. Suggested look at the Golbat vote. Little information to get from there. Mordanis correct call that one or even two scums aren't behind the lynch. Suggested be careful what to post at night. Mistake by me. Too townie for my own good, could have make use of bad reads. Posted small case on Kei. Reasons being: show some active "scum hunting" while freeing myself up to push for other people based on the situation in day 2. "My main fos in night 1 died " Reread filter, thinks Zork scummy, asked if disinterested in playing and if we can bus, got strongly retaliated. @Zork Did not meant to be hash, sincerely thought you were disinterested or not free. Thought can lift your burden and we can gain some advantage from it, not a "OMGUS uninstall game plz". Day 2 Kei saved. Knew it was Medic save. No one RB-ed. Suggest hunt for medic in Scum QT. Made use of my "small case" on Kei to try to draw medic out. No one else paid attention to Kei so was not very successful. Identified Mordanis and Promethelax as potential medics. Former due to the only one who paid attention to Kei day 1, later because of his buddying up Kei. DP initiated the PrometheWagon, succeed. Would like to see the reason for buddying up Kei: I have an explanation for the buddying thing that you are unhappy with that I will reveal before the end of the night cycle. It has a good motivation and I promise town that I will explain it before the end of n2. Could be strong townie reads, interested to see why.Night 2 Picked Kei block Mordanis: Kill because 4 reasons:
Block was not a decision by me. Told DP to make the decision for me, probably to block "potential medic". Positioned into pushing Shady Sands. Jingle joins replacing MrMedic. Really followed NMM XXI, sincerely admired play, good logical-analytical skills. Awesome pressuring skills. Knew about the straw man bussing potential. Thought could make use of, but didn't plan to keep you alive for long. Day 3 Kei dies, clears Shady Sands, not a big fan of the outcome. Jump on Mordanis bandwagon, interrupted by Ange's Zorkwagon. Suggested to bus at 4 vs 4 votes. Reasons being: Thinks that Zork's case overwhelms Mordanis' case. Momentum is on Zork's lynch, but if bus here, on the surface, Alan secured a Zork lynch, could have bussed with more arguments against Zork I collected on day 1. Massive town credit. However, plan not well received. Zork was not here. DP thinks Zork can be saved. Scrapped my plan, tried to save zork. Accidentally brought my frustration into the post. Thought it was a bit careless, but could have make excuses: "Was not only mad at Zork, but also all the lurkers, and people don't look at my case. Also mad at Jingle for silly tunnelling" Distracted Jingle, Jingle thought no one understands the word motivation. Planned to further provoke Jingle. Wanted to counter Jingle's post with "Not everything can be explained by a motivation. I accidentally ran over an elephant. I feel sorry for elephant, but I don't have the "motivation" to kill said elephant". Scrapped it last second because Jingle voted for Mordanis. Bad play from me. Should have pressured Jingle. Discredit Jingle, easier lynch. Had potential to swing the Zork lynch to Jingle lynch Asked Zorkmid to claim medic. Sincere request to Zork so he can clear himself, or at least bring down medic with him, not the silly "obvious fake claim" to switch vote "less scummy-ly" that people thinks. Half-assed attempt by Zork, everyone knows how it went. Night 3 DP lost motivation. So is Alan. Communication broke down. Kill Mordanis role blocked Jingle
Block for no particular reason. Thought Jingle could be medic, but he will certainly say something about it. Day 4 Mordanis flips VT. Jingle brought attention by talking about role blocker. Townie distrust him. Everyone voted for him. Thought case set. Positioned myself to get aRyu lynched next day, but will forced to vote for DP if people are after him. aRyu read my plan perfectly, as with any scum plan I had I can rub it off with townie explanation, but ground is shrinking. Missed DarthPunk's post about defending Jingle and pushing on GoodKarma. Huge mistake by me for missing it. Bad decision by DarthPunk.
@DarthPunk Thought you played a good game. Bet no one really suspect you among the 4 lynch candidate prior to slip. Feel bad for you, you were playing really well but had to fall because of one single mistake. Jingle reacted immediately. Although given up on the game, caught DP pants down. Instant vote on DP, huge town credit, no way to call bus. aRyu burst into Godlike posting mode. Strong analytical posts on DP. No way to refute. One of the main lynching force behind DP Both came out with massive town credit after DP flips. Night 4/ Day 5 Killed Obvious, blocks no one. No particular reason, almost given up. Meant to end my last post with a case, looked through filter, could not attack anyone. Everyone is good at establishing themselves as townie, even the supposedly gave up Jingle can't be accused without involving WIFOM. Town could afford another mislynch, so even if with good case I would most probably be lynched. Summary Sorry for this shorten version of what is supposed to be my long summary post. Addressed everyone at one point or another in the original post that disappeared along with my browser crashing. Please bear with grammatical error and spelling errors Things I learnt
Again, GG all, nice playing with you all. | ||
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