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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote: Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all. On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote: Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3. So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 28 2012 05:24 Golbat wrote: Okay, now I'm back. It looks like pretty much everyone else in the thread seems to think I'm scum. Well that's not good, because i'm not. You all seem to think that my incredibly poor play has something to do with me being scum, when that's not the case at all. I'm town. I'm very town, I'm just bad. I Honestly thought all of my posts were helpful when I posted them. I can see now why they aren't. I also think you can do better than lynching me. I propose instead that today we lynch someone who hasn't been a part of the conversation much, as it's entirely possible that the mafia has decided to sit back and let me and Mord go at it while the town analyzes itself to pieces. I feel that in that regard, Keir has been suspiciously quiet so far. Besides defending himself from Mord's suspicions early on, and this post, + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:32 Keirathi wrote: @goodkarma: I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him  On July 27 2012 11:46 Keirathi wrote: @Goldbat: At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. I had to sleep and go to work. I'm not really sure how that is "lurking". People have obligations outside the game, which I also mentioned (but you didn't quote that, of course, because it would make your case weaker). Just reading through your filter so far, I feel like you are saying "Oh shit, I made a mistake. Now how can I fix it?" The problem wasn't voting Mordanis early. You voted him without giving a solid reason why, then as soon as someone called you out on it, you backed off with "Sorry, I'm an over-zealous noob." Being wrong doesn't make you scum, but not having conviction and flip-flopping that fast is certainly suspicious. As far as "not contributing to the scumhunt", I'm not going to make bad cases just to put pressure on people. Like I also said, making cases is what keeps the game moving, but when they are just bad cases you give the scum ammunition to push their own agendas. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote: I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:02 Shady Sands wrote: So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing: Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. ##Unvote ##Vote: Shady_Sands To be fair, he said he looked through 20 mafia games (which I assumed was an exaggeration, but I'll let him clarify), not that he looked through the *LAST* 20 games, or specifically looked at newbie games. Overall, I'm leaning townie on Shady despite the case against him. He feels like a townie getting caught up in wild conspiracy/connection theories rather than a scum. I don't think scum can be quite that obvious about it, especially this early into day 1. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 28 2012 07:39 Golbat wrote: Of course people have to sleep and work. But how can we tell if you're sleeping/working or just lurking if you just abruptly stop posting in the middle of a discussion. Context clues would be a good start. My tag says I'm in the US, and my last post was around 3:30 am CDT or so. I think its a pretty easy assumption that I went to sleep. On July 28 2012 07:39 Golbat wrote: What do you mean I didn't have a solid reason to vote for Mordanis? I meant you didn't make a case about why his post was scummy. I mean, you SAID it was scummy, but you just questioned him without firmly stating WHY you thought it was scummy. + Show Spoiler + Golbat wrote:From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. was the closest you came to a real reason, but thats pretty WIFOMyYou then followed that quote up with questioning Mordanis' reply, then immediately afterwards voting him. It's just suspicious that you jumped on the bandwagon on the first person getting any real heat, but then flip-flopped off of him so quickly. You can't keep using being a noob as an excuse. EVERYONE is a noob, thats a given. On July 28 2012 07:39 Golbat wrote: You could read over someone's filter and point out inconsistencies I guess you forgot where I pointed out a perceived inconsistency in your list post. You deflected it, but to say I haven't pointed out anything is ludicrous, especially when it was directed at you. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two. I think its folly to assume that all the mafia are lurkers. If mafia sits back and lets the town lead discussion each day, then when it gets to be "do or die" time, they don't have any influence in discussion and swinging votes. If you want to see how a "good" scum plays, check out Promethelax's filter from Newbie XIX. He went out of his way early to get people on his side, and by the end of the game he had everyone in the town eating out of his hands because he was active and involved in the town proceedings. In fact, 2 of the 3 scum in that game were the "town leaders", while only 1 was actually lurking. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: In the quote below he acknowledged himself as a smart suspect (which I find it hard to believe a townie would do). Then just moves on and redirects his discussion towards MrMedic and then other already discussed candidates. Redirection and "blending in with trending town arguements" are scum plays. I don't see why a townie wouldn't recognize that they are potential suspects to everyone else. In fact, that quote actually makes me less suspicious of him because he didn't feel the need to spend a ton of time defending himself and instead carried on with his own reads. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: Also, a smaller point: your analysis is one of the most important things you can bring to the town, so why does aRyuujin encase it in spoilers? Maybe this is his writing style, or maybe it's because he doesn't want people following his analysis closely. But it does feel like a smart thing for mafia to try. Thats a big maybe considering thats exactly what filters are for; to follow people's changing thoughts and patterns. If he didn't want people following up on what he said, it seems like it would make more sense to just not say it. That said, I'll concede this point for now and read through his filter again and keep an eye on him. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I assume karma, but you quoted my post. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 28 2012 11:56 goodkarma wrote: Lurkers are a good target, especially when you don't have any good leads to go off of. That's the whole problem with your argument. Within 48 hours we should ALWAYS have a good lead to go off of. I don't see how anyone as town can read through day 1 and not have any reads at all on the other players in the game. Even if those reads are wrong, without them the discussion grinds to a halt, and our eventual lynch doesn't give us any information even if they flip scum. I don't disagree that townies lurking is a bad thing for town. The more townies lurk, the easier it is for a scum or two to blend in with the crowd. But certainly they can't ALL lurk. That's a recipe for them losing. Your posts, however, seem to be attempting to shift the scumhunt from the active people onto the lurkers. Every time someone starts pushing reads, you chime in with another post about lurkers. That kind of thinking is what causes chaos. People need to be posting thoughts and discussion based on what has been posted, not on what hasn't been posted. You can WIFOM all day about someone who hasn't posted anything, but its just speculation. I agree that we need to encourage people to post, but lurking isn't inherently scummy. About your case on Ryu; I agree with you that he hasn't posted anything of substance yet, which is bad. Neither has ~half of the town, though. I just give him some townie points back for not feeling the need to defend himself. He's pretty thoroughly a null read for me. @Ryu: I kind of wish you would stop posting in haikus though. It was novel for a bit, but it feels like you dont have enough depth to your messages because you are using the artificial sentence structure. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Again, my fault for not reading carefully enough. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Golbat (as an aside, am I the only person that has trouble typing Golbat instead of Goldbat?) :[
Two other people that I am minorly interested in: goodkarma I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Mordanis While I don't find his initial case against me particularly suspicious (other than the fact that it was pure WIFOM) because it could reasonably have been made by either town or mafia, he hasn't full escaped my notice. He repeatedly tried to assert that I wasn't blue. What good is that information to town, and why did he feel the need to point it out? Town never has a reason to "blue hunt", but scum always does. I really feel like Golbat is our best chance of flipping scum at the moment, so: ##Vote Golbat | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Really? You were gone for 14 hours and that's all you have to comment on? What are your current feelings on my Golbat case? Mordanis? goodkarma? What about people like aRyuujin who was getting some heat as well? I don't understand how "townie" Promethelax can be a worse player than the scum Promethelax I played with in XIX. Shady Sands The main argument against him seems to be him saying + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 20:39 Shady Sands wrote: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure. On July 18 2012 08:10 Risen wrote: Why should we not lynch you? Your flip gives us so much information. If you're scum Mattchew is in a rough spot, if you're town scib/Keir are pretty much dead men (unless mason claim) He gets some townie points back though for his active scumhunting. I dunno if he's been right or not, but he has what no one else has had yet this game: conviction. He lays out his reads without caring what other people think of them. He's pushed cases on Mordanis and Golbat that for the most part had solid reasoning based on fact and logic rather than WIFOM. Honestly, I find the townie points in his filter to outweigh his scummy points, and therefor I would be highly against with lynching Shady today. There are just flat-out better candidates imo. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
We need everyone to be contributing. Can you comment on the current cases please? Also aRyuujin, alan, Obvious, and Prom: you guys have overall been pretty quiet comparatively as well. At least you guys have posted cases, but you really need to step up your amount of input. EVERYONE needs to be giving reads as much as possible. Being wrong isn't a crime, but sitting back and letting others lead the discussion just means you have less "town power" and people are going to be more hesitant to listen to what you have to say when you do randomly decide to chime in. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote: While your defence sounded solid, it comes to do whether if we believes if you are lying about the statistics or not. What could he possibly be lying about? He said specifically that he did a thread title search for TL Mafia. Do the search yourself and compare the results. I'll admit he used a less-than-optimal set of sample data, since the TL Mafia games are generally 25-30 player games rather than minis, but he didn't lie. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
My only real problem in this game is just the general lack of activity. I really, REALLY encourage people to start posting more. You make it extremely hard to win if you aren't saying anything. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
GG Golbat, sorry we lynched you. My advice to you is to work on doing thing that make you SEEM town, instead of relying on saying you are town. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 29 2012 06:43 ghost_403 wrote: MrMedic has been pardoned for failing to vote, and will not be modkilled. Well where the heck is he? He certainly hasn't posted here. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 29 2012 08:01 MrMedic wrote: ##Vote Golbat A bit late considering day 1 is already over and Golbat flipped Vig | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 29 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote: I just woke up and I need to get some food. I will go through the day post again when I am back with the information we got now - Golbat flip blue. I hope everyone else do the same. This. 1000 times this. EVERYONE please read back through the thread before tomorrow with the knowledge that Golbat was a townie. I understand its a lot to read through, but the new perspective can really change your insight. | ||
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