Newbie Mini Mafia XXI

On July 16 2012 23:25 tube wrote:

idk what igmeoy means but i just didnt do any analysis

On July 16 2012 12:49 Hopeless1der wrote:

I don't care if you have a scummy meta, SCUMMY PLAY DOES NOT HELP TOWN! If I find your play scummy, I'm going to read you as scum and push for your lynch.

On July 17 2012 12:38 Hopeless1der wrote:
Except for MYLO i agree that no-lynch is usually no good. Away from my computer right now but I should be able to find that statistic mislynch vs nolynch stuff tonight

On July 17 2012 07:57 Obvious.660 wrote:


Remember this?



Nothing has changed. He's definitely a third mafia candidate (shitty posting history plus change in character to what looks like copy-pasted text from someone else) and it wraps up my theory quite nicely. The jig is up on the sacrificial lamb-ing and their strategy has been adjusted. His last couple of posts were completely out of character. Capitalization? Complete sentences? Total 180 and I don't think that a new-found passion for the game is going to change whether or not you type like shit.

If I'm right on this vote, it will mean my read was good (unless I change my stance on the other two I've listed, which is not out of the question by any means) and I can have more faith in my other suspicions. If not, well, it takes a town to vote.

~6 Hours since the last post from YourHarry
Still only one post from iamperfection.

On July 17 2012 20:06 Obvious.660 wrote:
There aren't enough fingers to go around at this point. I will share a few thoughts before I sleep, as I may not make it back in time for any further analysis. Seriously, the town play needs to improve overall or we're going to mislynch tonight. It's awful that I am reading more scum than town.

> tube still has my vote. Don't just look at the filter, it's better to read the actual thread when looking at him. Very few quotes to address the accusations against him in his responses will make analysis of tube troublesome without going through unfiltered.

> YourHarry: Highly, highly suspicious of this one. Not because he voted for me, but because of HOW IT WAS DONE.

> JingleHell is suspicious to me for his constant attacks on what words are chosen: "Wait and see" -- "Under the bus" conversations, where intent was pretty clear and he chose to always take it in the most negative context possible. He's railed on Calgar and me fairly hard.

> Hopeless1der makes a safe vote against the lurking Fulla. Wanted to know about no-lynch for whatever reason. Leaning scum here.

> Fulla seems to be lurking hard. Brings up a point of inquiry for some irrelevant statistic and probably goes to sleep.

> iamperfection read my post but clearly didn't follow the conversation in entirety. Points a few fingers, nothing overly suspicious. I would call the posting history semi-engaging but barely active. Leaning scum here.

> Calgar: My gut tells me town.

> Mufaa: Two posts. One starts analysis with the promise of more. The extra analysis is nowhere to be found. However, his line of reasoning regarding JingleHell seems to be spot on so far today.

> drwiggl3s: No scummy feelings here, yet.

> Evulrabbitz: Lurky, but lives in Sweden. 7 hours ahead of EST, if my just-before-sleep math is any good. I'm probably off by an hour. Look for something from Evul in the very near future, well before vote time.

> Hapahauli: Should be weighing in today. I have no strong feelings either way about his contributed play.

If you get nothing else out of this, town members need to take a good look at their individual contributions and ask themselves if they've done everything they can today to work towards a good day one lynch.

On July 17 2012 20:39 calgar wrote:
You've managed to vaguely reply to my post, yet you've addressed none of the content.

You've lurked and been generally unproductive.
You come in and point two fingers immediately but fail to later support your case.
You get your case from another person and add no thought to it.
You use poor logic and disregard my direct questions to you.

##Vote iamperfection

On July 18 2012 11:16 JingleHell wrote:
As it is, if he doesn't get NKed, we have almost 3 full days before deadline to try and force him to defend himself.

If, by then, he hasn't, he deserves what he gets. ?

On July 16 2012 12:49 Hopeless1der wrote:
I don't care if you have a scummy meta, SCUMMY PLAY DOES NOT HELP TOWN! If I find your play scummy, I'm going to read you as scum and push for your lynch.

On July 18 2012 06:13 Fulla wrote:


The first thing that springs to mind is IF this is the obvious thing scum do, why would he post this?

Why do people say this a useless worthless post? He gives clear reasonable arguments on each person. They are thought out and logical.

yet:


I thought this was pretty committed?
According to him: YourHarry, Hopeless1der and iamperfection are the 3 scum.

On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:
Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens.

Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.



Good point, I overlooked that.

Let's see what he flips then.

## Vote Obvious.660

On July 18 2012 23:39 Hapahauli wrote:
@iamperfection, you have a lot of suspicion on you right now. I suggest defending yourself and addressing people's concerns instead of chainsaw defending yourself by pointing out 3 different people (Fulla, Jingle, and a mystery 3rd "active mafia").

Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!!

Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players."

FOS iamperfection

On July 18 2012 23:39 Hapahauli wrote:
@iamperfection, you have a lot of suspicion on you right now. I suggest defending yourself and addressing people's concerns instead of chainsaw defending yourself by pointing out 3 different people (Fulla, Jingle, and a mystery 3rd "active mafia").

Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!!

Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players."

FOS iamperfection

On July 19 2012 00:04 JingleHell wrote:
I've actually been told in postgame that GGing someone who gets themselves mislynched looks like post-lynch guilt, and potentially scummy, as getting mislynched is frequently a sign of anything BUT a GG.

So yes, if a Townie gets themselves killed, I do think it's their own fault. This is not scummy, this is a fact.

On July 19 2012 03:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh forgot to clarify, I'm very suspicious of iamperfection's recent posts, and the only sentiment in his favor seems to be Jingle's "this is too easy" argument.

On July 19 2012 04:19 Hapahauli wrote:
I replied to your previous post here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=29#577

Also, I haven't commented at all on your vote on Obvious.660. It could be seen as a bandwagon, but I don't find it suspicious in itself. As far as your posting goes, I suggest looking at the filters of Calgar and Mufaa, who've pointed suspicion at you.

On July 19 2012 04:44 Hapahauli wrote:


I'm assuming the "throw out FOS" bit is in regards to my linked reply. I'm saying to take a strong stance against someone. You're wishy-washy and simply throw around suspicion without committing anywhere. This is a mafia-trait.

TBH, I don't even understand your question. Its not like you voted for Obvious - you voted for him when his fate was still in question. How does your vote for Obvious vindicate you?

On July 19 2012 10:46 JingleHell wrote:
Calgar got my attention when he screamed for a night hit on Perfection. Perfection, there's not much new to say on, so I figured address the one who's been skating by but seeming a bit off.

On July 19 2012 07:30 calgar wrote:

about iamperfection: The problem is that, as far as I’m concerned, we’re already at the end of the road. He’s either mafia or a bad townie. Watching him post more bad reads, contradictions, and poor logic (which he continues to do) isn’t going to change any of that. He’s already crazy suspicious, what is more dirt on him going to do? It’s still back to the basic problem of whether or not he’s just a bad town. An invest on him is risky because he is a likely candidate for the role change cloak since so much attention is targeted at him. I've got to laugh and shake my head at "ill be back later tonight" that he said. Did he consider the chance of being killed? So sure that he won't be? Probably right, since he's so anti-town. Even if he was town they wouldn't touch him. His haphazard play would be poor for both town and mafia so it's a tough call.

On July 19 2012 07:30 calgar wrote:

about iamperfection: The problem is that, as far as I’m concerned, we’re already at the end of the road. He’s either mafia or a bad townie. Watching him post more bad reads, contradictions, and poor logic (which he continues to do) isn’t going to change any of that. He’s already crazy suspicious, what is more dirt on him going to do? It’s still back to the basic problem of whether or not he’s just a bad town. An invest on him is risky because he is a likely candidate for the role change cloak since so much attention is targeted at him. I've got to laugh and shake my head at "ill be back later tonight" that he said. Did he consider the chance of being killed? So sure that he won't be? Probably right, since he's so anti-town. Even if he was town they wouldn't touch him. His haphazard play would be poor for both town and mafia so it's a tough call.

On July 18 2012 11:16 JingleHell wrote:
EBWOP: To be more clear, I'm not a vigi, but the way I see that, Perfection is too easy of a target. If I was a scum, Iamperfection (If we play hypothetical that he's a townie) would be easy to convince a vigi to shoot. Far too easy. We know his activity sucks. As it is, if he doesn't get NKed, we have almost 3 full days before deadline to try and force him to defend himself.

If, by then, he hasn't, he deserves what he gets. But a vigi shot, that's easy to sell, could be a disaster if he's just inactive.

I'm all for everyone stacking votes on him come daytime, at least until he starts talking.

Calgar, would you feel comfortable suggesting a vigi shot on him if we came to a consensus that if it flipped him town, you were next in line for a lynch?

On July 20 2012 01:10 YourHarry wrote:
Hapha is town.

On July 19 2012 05:32 YourHarry wrote:


Imagine a player who was wishy-wash about a player and then voted him, who then flipped town. The player would be very suspicious (LOL, this is actually exactly how I acted on D1, but I have an excuse ) ..So the other side of the coin is that, scums would act decisive and firm in their opinion - because typically that's how townies act and they want to fit in.

Also, you are saying everyone who didn't act wishy washy when they voted Obvious.660 is town? I think that's pretty much everyone except me.

On July 18 2012 10:38 YourHarry wrote:


You can say this for everyone who have voted for Obvious.660.

From scum's perspective, it is a choice between not wanting to look scummy by avoiding to contribute to a mislynch a player they know is town vs. putting their voting power in effect in order to favor a mislynch over a scum lynch.

On July 20 2012 11:48 JingleHell wrote:
The tag you wanted is

[green][b] Insert Text Here [/b][/green]

On July 21 2012 04:54 calgar wrote:
Ok, I’ll be switching my vote to drwiggl3s here.

I also want to propose a temporary solution to iamperfection. I may have been reading his actions on the wrong side of the coin. I’ve said in my previous posts that it boiled down to whether he was mafia or confused townie. At the time we didn’t have anything better to go off of so I considered it to be our best vote in order to maximize the % of killing mafia. What he’s said recently in his vote on YourHarry made me change my mind. His defense of YourHarry shows his reluctance to put the vote there, so he shouldn’t have any trouble changing to match with jingle again.

Anyways, what made me doubt my strong stance previously has a lot to do with the flurry of posting last night and today. YourHarry seems to have been pressured into making several revealing plays. Drwiggl3s has positioned himself to look good after the lynch. We can evaluate these more closely, soon. When iamperfection said that his best town read was jingle I understood about him following jingle’s vote. I’ve been sort of doing the same with hapa. Now, to ‘prove’ his townie-ness, let’s get him to agree to vote with jingle every vote. He says he believes jingle is essentially 100% town so he’s going to follow him. As long as he does so, then we have his vote with the town side no matter what his role is. He shouldn’t have any problem agreeing to this since he has said he wants to follow jingle’s vote. We can use this as a temporary stall to eliminate him from our suspects pool and try to root out member #2 after drwiggl3s. As long as he is voting with us, he is a temporary ally.

##Unvote
##Vote drwiggl3s

On July 21 2012 09:53 tube wrote:
i voted perfection because i didn't see why he was cleared of suspicion

On July 22 2012 01:56 tube wrote:
Relative periods of inactivity are not scumtells, they're quite frankly just times when someone doesn't feel like playing. A bandwagon on me doesn't tell the town anything because it was so easy for mafia to make me an attractive lynch, despite that the only thing I can be indicted for is inactivity.

I can't speak for hopeless or fulla but you guys are going to find some difficulty making sense of things when I flip town.
Also, my vote on perfection reflects my confusion as to why the suspicion on him is suddenly cleared. Wiggles was undoubtedly going to be the d2 lynch anyway.

On July 22 2012 02:20 Hopeless1der wrote:


Hapa, you make a good point about wiggles dropping the case after day1. However, I disagree with your point about the specific timing of wiggles' vote. I dont think it was 'firmly' set on Obvious. The votecount following wiggles' vote is:

+ Show Spoiler +

---

The votecount at deadline:
+ Show Spoiler +

There was still ample opportunity to get tube lynched and wiggles did make some effort to do so. Tube's posting history is most certainly against him, but I still think he is town.By no means do I expect this to change your mind, but I want it made clear that I think tube is town and I am not currently willing to push for his lynch.

---

I went through calgar's filter, and I especially took notice of his case against iamperfection.
Looking at the way the votes fell, I think Hapa and calgar might have had the right idea day1 voting for iamperfection. At the end of day1:
Jingle, Harry, Evul are all voting for Obvious' lynch and are pretty much confirmed townies. I think tube is also town, and Fulla doesn't read scum. which leaves iamperfection. (This all goes out the window when you consider tube or fulla being mafia, which at present I do not)

Calgar, I'm reading you as town now. I don't like the way you side with Hapa but not Jingle during N1, but I think thats the remnants of the Day1 'wait and see' business so I'm not going to count that against you.

I agree with your earlier case that iamperfection is scum:


However, I've come to that conclusion using a read that conflicts with your own (that tube is or isnt town). I'd like to get some more posts from both tube and iamperfection to confirm our reads, but I am most comfortable pushing for iamperfection's lynch tomorrow.

Most recently, iamperfection voices his concern that YourHarry is probably a bad idea, but doesn't switch his vote until after Jingle has moved on. It could very well be that he was scared of drawing attention, or he could be hiding behind Jingle's town cred. I see either action as being scum than being town. He made no pro-active effort to save YourHarry, and I count that against him.

On July 21 2012 04:46 Hopeless1der wrote:


In the event that YourHarry is lynched, I don't see a solid target to go after tomorrow no matter what he flips. If iamperfection is lynched and flips town, that's almost an autolynch on calgar. If drwiggl3s is lynched, I actually do think there is a good chance that he's scum based on the case you just made.

On July 22 2012 02:54 Hopeless1der wrote:

Overall you haven't done much for town. You're scummier to me than tube, or anyone else in the game right now. I don't think pursuing your lynch is a waste of time at all. It should generate some discussion and hopefully confirm some reads going into the next day, even if we end up lynching someone else

On July 22 2012 10:34 Hopeless1der wrote:


[/gives calgar a cookie]
I'm willing to get behind this vote, but calgar, I disagree with using the phrase 'confirmed' on most of us except YourHarry. Any one of us could be scum as far as I'm concerned. In the event that iamperfection flips town, I will consider you heavily implicated, despite the fact that you have played an active town role that has helped overall. You, me, Hapa, and speedbump are all candidates to be considered scum.

On July 23 2012 02:37 Fulla wrote:
It seems to have a went a bit dead...

@Iamperfection - who do you think is/are scum? What are your thoughts?

On July 23 2012 04:43 tube wrote:
I said more than that.

On July 23 2012 05:24 calgar wrote:
As far as I'm concerned you piled your vote onto YourHarry and doubted jingle's motives until well after he claimed JK with the crumb... How does that constitute a 'perfect read' - it had to be spelled out for you. You were pretty far from the truth in both cases.

On July 23 2012 06:35 Hopeless1der wrote:

@Perfection, there are a couple things you've brought up.
1 is my "trap" set for calgar. I originally suspected you two of bussing from the start, especially after calgar neglected to really push for your lynch day1.

On July 23 2012 22:19 tube wrote:
I didn't jump on the obvious bandwagon I saw reasons of my own to vote him and I think I was the second vote on him.
Wiggles was definitely going to die that day so I voted perfection to show that I still thought of him as scum.

"honestly mafia is laughing at you" wasn't at wiggles read the context again

On July 24 2012 03:37 tube wrote:
eh you guys are making a mistake lol

On July 22 2012 14:31 iamperfection wrote:
time= 1 am

condition= intoxicated

casino winnings= $300

Capitalization randomizer= operaTiOnal

Spell cehk = off

Grammer check= unlikely to not be on


log entry

Return from casino in great mood wons lots of money hit straight flush in 3 card poker. Return to accusations against the perfect one.. NoT cool. Hoever condition allows me to see things more clearly i see the end game i see the light i see what i have been looking. For.

Son of a bitch





You son of a bitch
@ calgar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dddAi8FF3F4

On July 23 2012 06:35 Hopeless1der wrote:

@Perfection, there are a couple things you've brought up.
1 is my "trap" set for calgar. I originally suspected you two of bussing from the start, especially after calgar neglected to really push for your lynch day1.

On July 21 2012 13:20 Hopeless1der wrote:
As a note regarding Jingle's request for protection, I really doubt we have a medic and a jailkeeper. Jailer can be used to simulate a medic if used correctly, and the balance of this game would be insanely town favored if we had both imo.
Can scum KP be roleblocked?
Because that's probably your only way to survive until tomorrow Jingle.

On July 23 2012 14:01 Speedbump wrote:
@Hapahauli: While I'm still suspicious of iamperfection, the cases posted against Tube are very compelling. Tube has spent no time defending himself and sounds like a mafia dying as quiet as possible.

@Hopeless1der: Based on level of suspiciousness each player has, the most probable mafia is tube, Fulla being the secondmost.

Tube is still posting in a manner that makes it very hard to believe that he could be anything other than mafia. Fulla has spent even less time posting towards helping town, mainly avoiding conversation by lurking and posting one-liners. The only time Fulla has tried to help town is through relentless railing of Hopeless1der, who I have a very good town read on.

@YourHarry: I also find the interactions between drwiggl3s and tube to be rather weird. I do not see a town tube to be so willing in his complacency in actively hunting mafia.
With these two posts tube made in Day 1, with the post analysis, the second post makes me adamant that tube is mafia.



As such, ##Vote tube.

On July 21 2012 19:11 Speedbump wrote:

I'm going to re-read everything tonight, and hopefully be caught up a few hours before the end of night.
(

On July 26 2012 00:08 Hopeless1der wrote:
Here's my problem with voting for a No-Lynch. We'd need to be prepared for the last minute vote from scum, because its plurality and they might be able to sneak the mislynch in today. I'm usually available at deadline, but I can't guarantee it, and I don't want to even give scum the chance to pull a fast one. If we can get 5 of us to agree to be around at the deadline I'll consider it.

On July 26 2012 09:55 Speedbump wrote:
I lost internet for roughly two days, only got it back today. T_T

First of all, Vote No Lynch. I honestly had massive suspicions of Fulla, but I lost internet access half-way through making a case on him. I agree that the safest course of action that town has is to go with a No Lynch. It means that town can play much more cautiously and still win.

My role is Senior.

At the risk of OMGUS, I think that this post from calgar is over-assumptive.


Bolded the logical flaw I see in your post. It's much easier to make assumptions about how replacements play, instead of actually playing the game. To answer your flawed analysis there; unless the player pre-replacement plays exceptionally poorly, I don't think that the replacement has any onus of burden to defend himself overzealously, like you're implying. In fact, overzealous play causes more problems for town, with potential mislynches.

But then, when one is reckless and grasping at straws the whole game, it would be easier to make more brash and reckless assumptions to mislynch and win. Have you got anything substantial to go on, or is this all purely WIFOM?

FoS calgar

On July 21 2012 04:38 calgar wrote:
I'll agree with you that drwiggles is a good lynch right now. Is he better than harry though? I'm planning to move my vote away from iamperfection - I may have come up with a solution to him, I'll post more on that in a little. Harry under fire has given us good reads on how several people have reacted.

On July 23 2012 05:24 calgar wrote:
As far as I'm concerned you piled your vote onto YourHarry and doubted jingle's motives until well after he claimed JK with the crumb... How does that constitute a 'perfect read' - it had to be spelled out for you. You were pretty far from the truth in both cases.

On July 28 2012 07:51 YourHarry wrote:
When's the deadline. Is it in 9 minutes?