On July 16 2012 08:54 calgar wrote:
Hey guys – excited to be playing with you all. Hope we have a great game! It’s interesting that half of you have had a lot of experience playing with each other already in XX – I’m curious to see how this will work out. As an FYI I live in EST time zone and am working full time M-F. This means my posting will be mostly focused in the 5-11PM EST during the weeks, but all times during the weekends.
So, day 1, no one knows anything eh? Let’s get the conversation rolling and pull the lurkers out to get the mafia talking. The town benefits from clarity, transparency, and direction, so I’ll try my best to encompass these into my posts. Please call me out, for whatever reason, if you notice that this isn’t the case.
Typical early D1 filler post. Doesn't automatically mean anything one way or the other, townies and scum both make these posts. For giggles, though, remember he was talking about clarity and transparency, which line up so well with some of his later, emotion-invoking responses.
On July 16 2012 09:06 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 08:59 Evulrabbitz wrote:Since it's newbie games I feel people haven't really gotten a feel for their preferable playstyle and thus I deem meta analysis worthless.
I have to disagree with you here. We saw firsthand how hapa crushed hopeless last game with a thorough meta-analysis. This means it is at least worth something. Having said that, I think it will be less useful this game since those who saw what happened will be more careful to avoid similar mistakes. And some players (like me) have no history to analyze.
Mostly useless WIFOM gibberish, and makes a comment about not having meta to analyze. Could be seen as a dare, could be an effort to cast a faint pall of doubt over analysis, could be me giving him entirely too much credit. Also, as Hapa pointed out at the time, it could be a subtle playing of a noob card.
On July 16 2012 10:07 calgar wrote:
Here are my thoughts: this is a newbie game, after all, so bringing attention to newbieness is only useful insofar as creating an excuse/cover for anti-town play. “forgive me for acting stupid and spreading confusion, I’m a newb LOLOL”. If there is no suspicious behavior to cover up then it doesn’t have value as a cover.
Moreover, I think that the ‘newb cover’ strategy has been way overplayed. Kind of like the lurk-and-hope-no-one-notices-you strategy. I would imagine any mafia trying to use such an obvious excuse like that would only be drawing unwanted attention. In other words, a very poor game move so early that intelligent players would not make.
Here, Calgar throws huge WIFOM doubt on scumtells, saying that nobody smart would make easy mistakes to be called out for. Seems potentially shady, and getting this far into WIFOM doesn't really line up with that whole clarity thing he was talking about earlier.
On July 16 2012 11:45 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 11:35 JingleHell wrote:On July 16 2012 11:28 calgar wrote:On July 16 2012 11:21 JingleHell wrote:On July 16 2012 11:17 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Calgar: Well-posted, but I disagree with you on the newb-lurker strategy being "overplayed." Fact is, this is a newbie game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that stuff (or other "overplayed" tells) here.
I fully expect to see at least one player go too obviously "hard-counter" to the scum-tells in the various guides. If we don't get at least one high-profile scum, I'll be shocked.
You guys may end up being be right but I'm not expecting anything to come easily. I suppose we'll have to wait and see. Very quiet first night so far, though, so not much to be done really.
See, that's suspect in and of itself. "Wait and see" is trouble. Make something happen or lose.
I think you're reading into my words way too much. I mean them as plainly as possible - I'm not aiming to have any subtle ulterior-motive second speech going on. I agree, make something happen or lose. Difficult when people are not posting, though, agreed? Thus talking to try and instigate said discussion, agree? Should I rather become silent - no, disagree. I'm trying to be as productive as possible - and at least giving other people a little bit to go on and analyze to make decisions for themselves.
Show nested quote +And just your bit about not expecting things to come easily, just sounds like you're hoping to plant seeds of doubt early, so that you can point to it later when you go WIFOM crazy on us.
What on earth are you talking about here? Why are you predicting that I will point to seeds of doubt later that I haven't even laid?
What I said in my last post: 1: you guys may be correct that mafia will reveal with obvious tells. 2: i'm going to give them more credit than that though 3: very little dialogue occurring currently.
What you say: you're going to turn on us with your seeds of doubt.
Not very logical, imo.
The early "Wait and see" controversy. His main defense essentially boils down to "Honest guys, I'm not scum, I didn't mean anything bad by that." Followed by "Oh, and you think I said something scummy, let's call you illogical"
Clarity and transparency at their finest, would you like some cheese with that WIFOM?
On July 16 2012 12:08 calgar wrote:
I'm just trying to promote discussion since it's slow right now. I don't even think this conversation is really about anything, other than you being suspicious of my words in ways I didn't intend them to be meant, so why would I point to it later? Seems like accusations, voting, and who suspects who would be much more important down the line. I'm not following your line of reasoning there.
In summary - I seem to have stepped onto the hot plate, so to speak, but I'll accept that to generate discussion. I think you can read into just about anything as much as you want. I just don't think there's actually any substance here. I hope that makes sense.
Here, the italicized bit and the underlined bit seem mutually exclusive. Long winded, sounds reasonable at first glance, but actually just meaningless fluff to deflect accusations.
On July 16 2012 12:57 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 11:50 JingleHell wrote:
"Wait and see" is mutually exclusive with "instigate discussion".
The only reason you're in this discussion is because Jingle thought what you said was (or could be interpreted as) scummy. He explicitly prevented you from waiting by pressuring you now.
You have to understand that I voluntarily posted with nothing to post about (essentially). This post about, what I felt was nothing, started it up. So it doesn't make sense to dismiss my part in it as "bullshit". I felt like in this beginning scenario making a rather content-less post was better than not posting at all. I'm glad my post has caused him to pressure.
This post makes an effort to pull a "pro-town" spotlight on himself because he was under suspicion due to his word choice. Doesn't make much sense to me.
On July 16 2012 20:49 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 10:26 tube wrote:
in a game this small where everyone said "i will be active" i dont think lurking is a good idea for anyone, esp mafia
I found this post to be rather odd. It doesn't seem like you're putting any time or thought into your posts - just what randomly comes to mind. You said lurking isn't a good idea but that's what you've managed to do so far. I feel the same way about your intro post.
IGMEOY He was so mad about me inferring meaning from what he said, but he doesn't seem to mind doing it himself. Glad we got that direction he talked about right at the start of D1!
On July 17 2012 06:24 calgar wrote:I’d like to make two points.
One – I agree that tube has graced us with terrible posts. It seems like he may not entirely understand the game. His post history outside the game is mostly similar one-liners with little effort so that seems to be his overall posting style. His behavior is decidedly
anti-town as it stands.
Two – Nice of you to grace us with a single post, iamperfection. I feel like this may have been somewhat buried so I’d like to bring it back to people’s attention. I want to call to attention
poor logic and assumptions.
Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 00:42 iamperfection wrote:It means i got me eye on you google is kind of usefull.
Although calgar's premise is wrong. I think a mafia member is more likely to put much more thought into their posts then a non mafia member. From my 1 game of experience in which i played more of a lurker role as a mafia member the other 2 members put a ton of thought and effort into their posts. Even as going as far as having the coach review their posts before posting them to see what they thought.
Your logic:
Hmm, so my premise about his anti-town behavior is wrong, based on your limited observations of being mafia last game? What?! First, that’s a terrible sample size. Second, it’s fallacious to assume that anything in your previous games has any relevance on how people will act in this one. Poor logic and mafia-like. What relevance does your specific last game have at all to our situation here?
Show nested quote +You are by far looking the more sucpicious right now. The accusation on tube is telling to me. After the heat on you it seems you like you know want to set up a policy of lynching lurker or people that do one liners. Instead of drving the attention on one person it appears to me you are trying to get us looking at a whole group in order to confuse the town
FOS Calgar
Also, i think there is a possibility yourharry post was an attempt to get attention away from calgar
smaller FOS on YourHarry
It looks like you just scanned my post quickly and attacked it as “trying to shift suspicion”. Did you even read it or consider what I meant? It seems like many others agree with me about his anti-town behavior. It seems you’re defending anti-town behavior of tube here.
Why are you suggesting that I have some grand strategy of people to lynch? It looks to me like I made one very specific post about a single player. Yet I have plans of setting up a lynching policy to "confuse the town". Putting words into my mouth -
very suspicious.Your post strikes me as if you were mafia and were planning how to enter the game late. You decided to jump onto someone’s reasoning bandwagon to try and avoid attention. Why do I say this? You make no effort in original thought. To me it looks like you scanned the thread, looked at who had been attacked, and said “Oh yeah I agree, FOS on the same two guys as jingle”.
This mostly looks like a mild OMGUS to deter suspicion.
After this, he spends a few posts piling onto tube, like everyone else did. If I'm missing something relevant by leaving them out, feel free to add it in. I guess a couple of highlights of his "Me-too" attitude from that point won't be amiss.
On July 17 2012 07:35 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 07:30 tube wrote:Also, if you think putting words into people's mouths is suspicious, take a look at JingleHell's early posts against me that sparked the entire bandwagon. He does it multiple times by saying that I basically said so and so and therefore was clearly playing against town.
Ah, your first real post of the game - congrats! There is a difference in the two, though. Jingle (and others) have made you talk. Discussion has been generated and you are using punctuation and sentences now. iamperfection came in, dropped a rash accusation, and disappeared. No discussion, no benefit to the town. Different, no?
Subtly adding himself to the people who pressured tube's play.
On July 17 2012 09:12 calgar wrote:Why have you been so quiet evul? Rather inactive recently besides picking at one of my posts.
Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 08:40 Obvious.660 wrote:You are correct about my reading. I didn't read it super closely. It still has your style laced into it, it's just hidden behind capital letters and almost-paragraphs. This is what I get for reading on my mobile device. Not that you're cleared of suspicion, but I tunneled on you hard and I need to back up and re-assess, and certainly give you the chance to participate before I throw you under the bus. My eyes were on you, and only you, and that's something scum would love to see if you are town. I'm sorry about that. I wish I had more to go on regarding my other suspicions, their inactivity left me not much else to look for.
We're coming up on 24 hours soon, which means 24 to go. Ample opportunity to change my vote. The vote remains until a more suitable candidate arises.
I understand what you mean about re-assessing; it's a big turn and it deserves careful thought. I think it's important to ask a few questions in regards to the 'change'. Is it such a big change after being nagged and attacked? I did request that he use sentences and punctuation. Would YOU have a philosophical change like that mid game? Does it make more sense for a townie or a mafia to change styles? Is the more complicated answer really the best one? This is what I've been thinking.
It's certainly suspect but I am currently inclined to read town. I think it's a very risky strategy to try and escape suspicion because of a philosophical change. Very prone to backfire and I would think he would have had to plan it before the game even began. His last game was in 2011 and he posted similarly to how he did at the beginning of our thread (for what little use that meta-analysis is).
This is him egging on the attention directed at Obvious for his attack on tube, and temporarily joining the fray.
On July 17 2012 20:39 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 13:30 iamperfection wrote:
And two can play at this game calgar i still got my eye on you.
You've managed to vaguely reply to my post, yet you've addressed none of the content.
You've lurked and been generally unproductive.
You come in and point two fingers immediately but fail to later support your case.
You get your case from another person and add no thought to it.
You use poor logic and disregard my direct questions to you.
##Vote iamperfection He starts jumping at iamperfection. Perfection is doing so little that scum would feel no qualms about throwing him under the bus to grab town credit, and if he isn't scum, he's townie that looks scummy enough to easily sell a mislynch.
On July 18 2012 04:07 calgar wrote:
Well guys, we have a clutserf*#@ of a mess here currently. I’ll do my best to outline my thoughts concisely.
1. @jingle and @hapa – jesus christ guys chill out already. Your back and forth is unproductive, distracting, spammy, and most importantly, anti-town. That is reason enough to stop, immediately. Deal with your issues outside of the thread.
2. My strongest mafia read is iamperfection. He has completely ignored my questions and has posted little. He has jumped to conclusions and used poor logic. He’s either mafia or a townie playing extremely poorly.
Once again he just targets whoever is already receiving heat, in this case obvious (his logic isn’t as terrible this time around, but still). Very safe vote to make that doesn’t require him to do anything risky. He backs off of me when I vote him to avoid any confrontation. I acted very differently when people accused me – I took them seriously. I gave thorough responses and addressed concerns. He has ignored them. I suspect he is sliding by right now because of the large number of other targets currently being thrown around.
3. @jingle – can you briefly summarize the crux of your suspicions in two or three sentences? I ask because to me, obvious reads town.
I think he reads town because:
1- He also has a read on iamperfection, who I think is a good d1 lynch choice
2- He casts FOS on yourharry early on, who I am inclined to think is mafia (see #4).
3- I think the ‘under the bus’ was read into similarly to how I was read into earlier
4- I think he tunneled and overanalyzed whereas a simpler solution may be more likely in the case of his rash tube accusation.
5- He tries to coax fulla into posting, which fulla ignores. I tried to coax evul into posting, which evul ignores.
6- In conclusion, obvious and I seem to be playing a very similar game. IMO, the only thing that separates him from me is his vote and unvote against tube. As an afterthought, he’s read me as town so I am slightly more inclined to believe him. Maybe a clever psychological play on his part.
4. I’m inclined to change my vote to yourharry now. I would like to go with my read but I realize my single vote isn’t going to matter if no one else feels the same way. Here’s why:
1- I like hapa’s case and think it is well-thought out. I agree with most of his points.
2- those one liners that yourharry posted really pissed me off. Anti-town play and spam.
3- he voted for jingle and I read jingle as strongly town
4- his posting style changes after he is accused. Look at his posts 1-14 in the thread. They seem to be useless, spam, and 1-liners. Until he is accused, and all the sudden he’s dropping paragraphs. Maybe he’s blue and trying to lay low but he played it very poorly if that’s the case.
##Unvote
##Vote YourHarry
His strongest scumread is perfection, so he unvotes perfection to vote Harry. This is where his voting pattern starts bouncing around like Bugs Bunny on cocaine.
On July 18 2012 05:18 calgar wrote:
@ people voting for obvious.660
I still disagree with going for obvious. He has tried to be active, promote discussion, and make reads. I think he's posted a little carelessly and everyone is targeting him now. These mistakes are being interpreted for mafia but I'm seeing it as a town who is trying to be proactive. We still have mufaa and iamperfection playing like sheep, like 2 posts, weak reads, no content. I consider both to be a better lynch than obvious.660.
Now that Obvious is in a precarious position, he starts taking a truly strong stance against voting for him. While talking about mufaa and iamperfection looking like the best targets. Of course, his vote is still on Harry at this point?
On July 18 2012 06:00 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 05:56 Hapahauli wrote:On July 18 2012 05:25 calgar wrote:
@hapa Will you consider swinging your vote to iamperfection? We can potentially bag him over obvious.660 if we can convince people. I think the argument against iamperfection is stronger than YourHarry now. He made some points and if his posting shapes up and continues like it has then we'll know more. At least we've 'aired the dirty laundry' on him, so to speak.
NOTE: I have to catch a train and I'll be gone until close to the lynch deadline. Can I rely on you to lobby for the iamperfection lynch Calgar? Yes, I'll do my best.
I'll vote for anyone at this point that I think is more likely to be mafia than obvious.660. iamperfection has a bad history so I think he is a good option instead. I don't mean to be wishy-washy and go back and forth but it's a scramble at this point to try and swing the vote.
##Unvote YourHarry
##Vote iamperfection Now that he's convinced Hapa to go for perfection, he's finally willing to change his own vote back to his top target. Except for all his other top targets.
And now, his next significant post, "VIGI SHOOT PERFECTION NAO!!"
On July 18 2012 11:08 calgar wrote:
@vigilante – I believe our next lynch has a high likelihood of being iamperfection. A number of people currently consider him the best choice now. It doesn’t look like he is bothered to respond to accusations or post much in general. I strongly advise to (carefully) consider a hit on him to save us a day, imo. Then on to the bigger fish.
If Perfection is scum, buys town cred, if he's town, he points to the same thing that happened with Obvious. Should have played better. Of course, he's tried to discredit me based on Obvious dying for that exact reason, so that would be awkward, huh?
On July 19 2012 02:43 calgar wrote:
@jingle Why do you propose sealing my fate to the vigilante kill? That doesn’t make sense because it would be poor play for both town and mafia. Why are you trying to bait me? It seems like only a mafia would try to set me up to look bad after the vigilante hit. I would only make that as town if I had delusions of grandeur and being the town hero. If I were right then I’d have made a big call. If wrong, then I would basically be giving the game away since 8 towns would go to 7 with the vig kill, then lynch on me to 6, then a night kill to 5. Game over, essentially, at the very least handed mafia a massive lead that requires perfect play to overcome. If I’m mafia then I doubt I would tie myself down to the verdict because I know I’d be lynched after.
Here, he very heavily implies I'm scummy. Remember that later when he gets to saying I'm one of his very pro-town reads...
On July 19 2012 07:30 calgar wrote:
Alright townies, I'll call it like I see it.
@hapa I’ll agree with you that it may be too soon to call a vig hit. I’m with you on the YourHarry case. Whatever they say, it’s process of elimination and if out of 11 players remaining there are 6-7 behaving town-ish and 3-4 behaving mafia-ish then we need to go for those in the 3-4. Fulla doesn’t know what’s going on which is funny to me in some sense. Better case for being a bad-townie I think than YourHarry. But it’s definitely anti-town play. I’d say YourHarry is higher on the list because his anti-town play is more extensive.
about iamperfection: The problem is that, as far as I’m concerned, we’re already at the end of the road. He’s either mafia or a bad townie. Watching him post more bad reads, contradictions, and poor logic (which he continues to do) isn’t going to change any of that. He’s already crazy suspicious, what is more dirt on him going to do? It’s still back to the basic problem of whether or not he’s just a bad town. An invest on him is risky because he is a likely candidate for the role change cloak since so much attention is targeted at him. I've got to laugh and shake my head at "ill be back later tonight" that he said. Did he consider the chance of being killed? So sure that he won't be? Probably right, since he's so anti-town. Even if he was town they wouldn't touch him. His haphazard play would be poor for both town and mafia so it's a tough call.
@fulla There isn’t much to say about you. I’ll start with your pledge at the beginning of the game “I will be active Very active /in x100” You don’t seem so excited now. You contribute absolutely nothing in the first 24 hours. You seem to have contributed a fair amount in your magic mafia game so don’t know what happened. You make one or two short posts that contribute relatively little content-wise. You said “Where the hell is obvious?” - my response to that is where the hell are YOU? I don’t even have anything to analyze here you’ve been so inactive.
@YourHarry You’ve been called out for anti-town play and you haven’t done a single thing in my eyes to change. I can’t come up with a list this long for any other player besides iamperfection.
1. Your “read” on how fulla is “positively town” is very bad logic. Piling on to a vote right before the deadline is far from pro-town. I’m pretty sure you’re the only one getting that feeling because he is crazy suspicious to me. You then backtrack – see #9.
2. You lack any strong reads or dedicated suspicion. See what I’m doing here with this list?
3. I think it’s possible that you bussed iamperfection in your post: “Jingle, iamperfection, tube... Can't be this easy right.”
4. Your analysis of obvious’ summary quote as sounding like “like forced narration to seem pro townie” is a weak justification for piling onto the veteran. In fact, your words sound like what is quoted.
5. My reads are all different than yours so maybe I just suck. Or maybe you’re purposely spreading suspicion on other players I have pegged as town.
6. “And, I want you guys to be convinced that if tube is town, so am I.” WHAT? You just called him out for being suspicious for piling on. Where does this one liner come from? Where is your reasoning, your logic? Why would a town drop random one-liners like that making vague suggestions about innocence. You don’t need to claim innocence, you show it, which you haven’t.
7. Your posts have attempted to spread blame to me (subtly), jingle, iamperfection, tube, and obvious. Which is it, now?
8. You began the game with contentless, spammy, directionless one-liners until you were pressured. Anti-town as I have said before. You even agree with me on this one!
9. Your votes lack conviction and you backtrack. Obvious backtracked also but we agreed on most things and he pressured people to talk. That's why I felt strongly he was town. You happen to share neither category with obvious.
10. Mind telling me what this great excuse that explains your anti-town play is? “(LOL, this is actually exactly how I acted on D1, but I have an excuse )”
Your days are numbered playing like this.
IGMEOY iamperfection, YourHarry, fulla
As for town direction, I propose to pressure the above and decide from there.
"Me-Too"s onto Hapa, changes his mind about wanting a vigi shot on perfection.
On July 19 2012 09:03 calgar wrote:alright Jingle. you’re a bull in the china shop; an elephant tip-toeing over the piano Keys. i knew; what can i say – you’re like arguing with a brick wall.
Your case is weak right now but I’ll grant you a reply.
Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 07:57 JingleHell wrote: If Perfection is scum, the calling for a vigi hit was an attempt to earn calgar town credit, and if Perfection is town, he's an easy sell for a mislynch.
Wait, what? If he is mafia, then you’re suggesting that I’m mafia and I voted to kill another mafia, to boost my town cred, when you are saying to leave the mafia alive for more questioning? Doesn’t that mean I am currently pushing for a mafia player to get killed, while you are arguing to leave him alive? Explain to me how that makes ANY sense. If he is town, we’ll never really be able to know – see my thoughts on him and why an invest isn’t very useful.
Show nested quote +Regardless, Calgar's late in the day effort to "Save" obvious once it became clear saving him would be difficult looks like an effort at town cred. It's heavy WIFOM, but it was a mediocre effort, and too little too late. Certainly not enough to make him look clean to me.
You argued to kill a town member, I argued to save him. How does this ‘mediocre’ effort by a vote you caused with a POOR READ reflect guilt on my part? It was clear to me by inactivity and lack of conversation that people were going to stick their vote and not listen. I don’t understand how trying to save the townie made me look more guilty. If hopeless and one vote had swung over, iamperfection could have gotten 5 votes first.
Show nested quote +Furthermore, he jumps votes like it's going out of style, and despite pushing his side bandwagon on perfection late D1, he didn't change his vote until he got Hapa onboard with it. Check the timing in the filter. Despite his seeming desperation to "save" obvious by pushing perfection, Calgar left his vote on YourHarry until AFTER Hapa changed votes. What?
I jump votes like it’s going out of style to SAVE A TOWN MEMBER. How has this escaped your notice? You have some master vision of my theory crafting and play in order to build credit. Don’t you think these pro-town actions might have a simpler expalantion? I didn’t change my vote until after hapa because I was being resourceful to pool votes to wherever they could go. I thought YourHarry or iamperfection were better D1 lynches so I would have voted either to save obvious. I switched because we got a third onto iamperfection and it looked plausible that we might swing it over.
Show nested quote +Go back to the very beginning of D1, he was pointing to his lack of history to analyze, and hoping to cast doubts on the various methods people can use to spot scum. He was actively spreading the seeds of doubt for any analysis that could be directed his way.
Your language is much more cloudy and less straightforward than mine. WTF do you mean with “seeds of doubt”. Why are you speaking like you’re a poet? Your previous argument was based on suspicious words like “under the bus”. Where did that get you?
Show nested quote +This second one casts huge WIFOM type doubts around, he can point to it later as needed. "See guys, I even said back then we should avoid watching this stuff".
I’ve voluntarily
chosen to be in the spotlight. This is a bad play for mafia – it’s even in the advice guide. Sooner or later you can’t keep up your town cred by making pro town votes (like trying to save a myslynch from you). WIFOM, whatever.
Show nested quote +Also, Calgar was, at first, one of the people calling me scummy for saying we don't have sufficient info for a vigi kill to feel really safe. When Hapa agreed, I'm suddenly not on Calgar's scumlist in his recent post? Again, "me-too"-ing on Hapa.
I’ve never called you scummy. You’ve never been on my scumlist. I read you as strongly town. I’ve said so before, check my filter.
I called you out there because your reasoning was stupid. You won’t agree because you are stubborn. That’s just what we have to deal with in a thread that includes you. I'll let it slide because sometimes townies don't always make the best calls (obvious).
Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 06:42 JingleHell wrote:
And frankly, I don't expect Obvious to be a mislynch.
I would imagine you don't think I'll be a mislynch, either?
@YourHarryCare to respond to anything? Nice OMGUS also. You were joking about defending me earlier. Asking people to claim? There's #12 on my list. "I do not want to disclose that right now." --> anti-town play. #13
Huge, emotion-inspiring pile of ad-homs directed at me, and denies he ever suggested I was scummy after he asked for a hit on perfection. Oops.
EPT
