EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 34
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 09 2012 05:14 Release wrote: thank you very much sir. After the day post before the evul claim. The only way you would know he was confirmed townie is if you were the last scum. GG. Scumslip in open air. Release, can you explain this? Hapahauli posted that minutes before your reply - well into Day 2 and after evul cleared Jingle. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:07 YourHarry wrote: Release, can you explain this? Hapahauli posted that minutes before your reply - well into Day 2 and after evul cleared Jingle. he didn't pursue Jingle in the time after the Day post but before evul cleared him. Unless you want to take into account "is vs was" i'll assume he meant Jingle was a confirmed townie, and that he meant it for that period of time (which again, was before evul cleared jingle.) | ||
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
Is it me, release, hapa and most likely Xen? | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 09 2012 05:51 Lazermonkey wrote: While I agree with that Release looks bad, Hope's meta case on him is just shit. It's massivly dependant on the fact that Release have the abilty to be active the same amount of time in all of his games. While it may be true that he is lying about being bussy, this is just WIFOM and can't possibly be used as an argument against him. I don't claim to understand Release but I played XVI where we both were town. His play soso. The good part of it was his activity level but his reads were kinda off. He were tunneling alot and didn't really look at motives nor did he swap his target too often. He got alot of critique on that so it just makes sense that he would be trying to change his play this game. I'm going to assume you meant my case against Release, and I appreciate the comments. The majority of my case isn't based around Release's activity - its based on his posting style. Several of his posts on day one are massively out of character with his townie persona. Release in his other three games is never unsure of himself, never wishy-washy, and will never passively fingerpoint people. I'm sure he didn't receive any advice to start doing this, yet look at some of these posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=13#248 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=19#368 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=21#409 Townie Release NEVER posts ANYTHING in his townie meta similar to the 3 posts above He is fickle about his opinions, sounds passive, and fingerpoints multiple people within individual posts. Not only is it out of character with Release's town meta - its out-of character in a mafia-oriented way. My case on Hopeless was built on the exact same meta argument - Hopeless was being different from his town meta (being passive/diplomatic/fingerpointing) with mafia motives. I'll give some more detailed comments on your case about Zen tonight, but from what I've seen so far, Zen has been far too quiet for me to make a solid judgement. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:17 Mackin wrote: I want to kill either Zen or Release atm. Preferably Zen. I'm okay with lynching you if we can't lynch neither Zen or Release. I'm certainly not lynching Hapa. Not today.Who are we suspecting at the minute then? Is it me, release, hapa and most likely Xen? | ||
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:28 Lazermonkey wrote: I want to kill either Zen or Release atm. Preferably Zen. I'm okay with lynching you if we can't lynch neither Zen or Release. I'm certainly not lynching Hapa. Not today. Good. The odds of Hapa being mafia are very low, and I'd only recommend it a day or two down the line. I have a feeling I'm gonna get lynched today or tomorrow but I don't mind because the odds are in our favor anyway. I'm not the guy you're looking for, but Zen has been very very quiet as you've said..... | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
and i think we'd get an honest opinion which i think would be nice. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
It will be done. Give me some time. One thing though - Zen hasn't posted in a good while so my read on him will be not as good. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:26 Hapahauli wrote: I am not arguing that he is playing diffrent from his last game, I'm arguing it's bad to use meta as a form of analyse, especially in newbie games where people havn't found their preferable style yet. His town play in those games were far from perfect in it's perfectly understandable that he is trying to change his play style.I'm going to assume you meant my case against Release, and I appreciate the comments. The majority of my case isn't based around Release's activity - its based on his posting style. Several of his posts on day one are massively out of character with his townie persona. Release in his other three games is never unsure of himself, never wishy-washy, and will never passively fingerpoint people. I'm sure he didn't receive any advice to start doing this, yet look at some of these posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=13#248 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=19#368 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=21#409 Townie Release NEVER posts ANYTHING in his townie meta similar to the 3 posts above He is fickle about his opinions, sounds passive, and fingerpoints multiple people within individual posts. Not only is it out of character with Release's town meta - its out-of character in a mafia-oriented way. My case on Hopeless was built on the exact same meta argument - Hopeless was being different from his town meta (being passive/diplomatic/fingerpointing) with mafia motives. I'll give some more detailed comments on your case about Zen tonight, but from what I've seen so far, Zen has been far too quiet for me to make a solid judgement. Just because you got Hope lynched doesn't mean meta is good way for deciding who is scum. Also your case on Hope was not purely built on meta but also usual scum hunting. This is why people voted for him, he was being anti-town. I like the case on Release not because of meta but becuase he is acting in an anti town way. My case on Zen is not built fact that he is lurking but rather his insanly scummy voting patterns. | ||
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
Release: What can I say here? There's nothing in particular in his last couple of pages of filter that gives any vibes of scum? Or am I missing something. Did Hapa in fact say Jingle was confirmed townie before Evul posted his claim? I don't remember that and I'll check after this analysis you asked for Release. Harry: + Show Spoiler + On July 08 2012 18:50 YourHarry wrote: Anyways town victory is almost a certainty. Even if we randomized all of our actions, as long as we lynch from unconfirmed list, we should cruise to victory. According to my calculations, something like 3% chance of losing. Additional strategy. Both detective and tracker should publicize who they will target. They should pick two different players. The medic can randomly protect tracker or detective, but if either detective or tracker makes it known that he will target the medic, do not protect that person (for example, detective plans to target A and tracker plans to target B, and if A turns out to be the medic, medic should protect the tracker who's targeting someone other than medic). Guidelines on day 3: Tracker and detective should immediately report. The perfect scenario is if any power role receives "innocent" or "no visit". As long as we have one additional confirmed townie, we are guaranteed a 100% victory. If detective is alive and he received "guilty" on player X, we should lynch X regardless. If detective is dead and tracker targeted the player Y who "visited Z", we should kill Y as long as Z got lynched at night. Again, Y cannot be the medic here because nurse should have protected the detective if tracker publicized his plan to target the medic (And yes, tracker is more powerful than detective at this time). I really want to play through this game, but I feel the responsibility to volunteer to lynch myself. I am a vanilla townie and I do not want to risk having to force the medic to claim. Good job Hapah, if you are town  If not, you lose Good game everyone and good luck!! ##Vote YourHarry Wait, what? Just when Release asked me to look at Harry, I look more closely at this (marked in red). He posts "almost certainty" and goes on to provide clear analysis on how the game should/can progress. But what's wrong with that Mackin? --- Reasoning below: First off, I don't like how he says almost certainly, could be trying to lure us into false sense of security, all the while knowing there is that chance of getting away with it. But there is always the chance that the mafia player will get the correct lynch and then things roll more and more into their favor that he could be that mafia working his magic. He posts good analysis like that of a townie, but he could be scum trying to point out the odds for us so we think its won. I'm certainly not saying its 100% but voting for yourself seems strange and the attention was took off him when someone told him to be quiet and no need for the noble sacrifice blah blah blah. There is another post he done with good analysis but it could be a cover up of "almost certainty win" when he's planning to bluff his way as far in as possible. ZenMan I'm not liking how quiet Zen's gotten. If he is mafia, and we lynch him it's just gonna have been too easy. Maybe Mafia has given up, but not given up. Anyway for how little he has posted I'm thinking he could be mafia just gave up... For now, I'm gonna: ##vote ZenMan | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Anywho, some comments on your case of Zen - since his filter's so short, I'm just going to break it down in a "timeline." 1) Zen opens the game with a case on Mackin - (You mention this is not a major reason for your scumread, so take this with a grain of salt). I don't find this post scummy at all. While he does take a stance against a passive player/eazy target, calling out lurkers is a townie trait, as it helps spark discussion. The content of the post itself is a pretty legitimate attempt at analysis as well. In addition, ignoring the first few pages of shitposting is not necessarily a bad thing - it can be interpreted as lazy town play, or a townie who doesn't see any value in 2)Zen's suspicious D1 voting - This makes him look pretty bad. He goes from voting Hopeless ("Hopeless IS Mafia"), to posting a pretty bad case against you and keeping his options open ("i am equally suspicous of Lazer as i am Hopeless"). His vote-switch three hours later for unclear reasons is suspicious as well - given that it put LazerMonkey into the voting lead. I think you've said all that needs to be said here, however, I can't justify voting for him on a voting pattern alone. Now some of my own reads on Zen that could strengthen/weaken your case: Zen's overall "lurkiness" - Zen has 1 page of filter so far, and only has a couple of pretty useless posts after the D1 lynch. In particular, his posts emphasize stalling and taking non-controversial opinions (click for reference). I don't think this is enough to make a judgement, but Zen is not helping his cause and is showing some mafia-motive. Zen's "analysis" - Zen has two attempts at analysis so far, one being a decent early-game suspicion of Mackin, and a pretty bad bandwagon case on Lazermonkey. While the timing of the case is interesting, it actually is an attempt at analysis despite it being pretty bad content-wise. While Zen has shown very suspicious behavior, we only have lurkiness/voting patterns to go on. I feel that both Release and Zen have been very suspicious, but there is simply not enough information on Zen for me to make a judgement. I might go through his game-history later to get a feel of meta. As it stands, we have a lot of information (meta and otherwise) on Release and he's the better D2 lynch IMO. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
Yeah but it could be the lurkiness of a mafia not giving a shit. Wanting to see how far he can get with as little effort possible due to the odds stacked against him. Also someone said scummy voting patterns that another thing I'll have to check out. Good night all! | ||
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