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Now, on to my rebuttal:
AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Keirathi popped in as a replacement for a scummy player and posted scummy-looking reads of every player in the game (never mind that he put vague numbers before his "everyone could be scum" list), and you're surprised that I took the time to contradict his points? Debate of that nature is the core of the game that we're playing; the fact that Anacletus and Impact felt no need to defend themselves against our accusations is exactly the reason that we're in the predicament we find ourselves in.
So who has demonstrated enthusiasm for Hopeless's analysis so far? Only Keirathi, who (not to overly belabor a point) seems to have a strategy of flinging poo in every direction and seeing what sticks.
I've gone back and forth on Hopeless since the start of the game, but I am now firmly convinced that we'd be well on our way to winning this game if JH and I had gotten more support to ban him day 1. His case against Blind-RawR day 2 was not a clumsy attempt at provoking a mislynch; it was a clumsy attempt at bussing his way out of the scummy read he'd developed day 1. Now he and Blind-RawRKeirathi are pushing cases every which way, while making sure to disagree just enough, and to post their suspicions of each other. I smell an attempt to see where the kernel of a mislynch forms so that they can drop the hammer and end the game. And if the worst happens and one of us smells that something's up, they've got a couple of nice juicy posts to quote for towncred.
So what did you want me to do, coming into the game? I felt it was my job to make a thorough investigation of everyone with "what-if goggles", and read through with the assumption that each individual person COULD be mafia.
Also, you took time to contradict my points, but like Prom, didn't care enough to commend on my counter points. Do you want to defend yourself, or not?
Enthusiasm for Hopeless's analysis? I made comments because that's what I've been asking EVERYONE to do.
Pushing cases every which way? I guess I can understand why you think a general analysis of activities I thought could be scummy behavior if you assume the person is scum before they said it could be flinging poo. But I haven't actively tried to push a target because I just don't fucking know. So I've just been begging forr other people to come throw in their own input, and responding to arguments they make. You even acknowledged that debate is the core mechanic of this game.
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On July 07 2012 01:14 iamperfection wrote:
time check please
4 hours, 45 minutes left I believe.
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On July 07 2012 02:44 Miltonkram wrote:
Hold the phone. What do you guys think of the scumslip I posted on iamperfection?
I feel like I found a pretty major scumslip by him. I think he's our best chance of flipping scum. I know Hopeless1der looks scummy, but that is mostly from his D1 play. He has since improved, whether from PMing the coaches or Mafia QT I'm not quite sure yet, but he's improved enough to the point where lynching him makes me feel uncomfortable. I'd really like people to take a look into his case.
Your accusation was accurate, but so many people have done the same thing this game. Its weird to demonize one person for it, but not the others.
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On July 07 2012 03:43 BobTheLob wrote:
No, I'm saying his post is useless, but for my opinion on what's going on right now as it seems that I won't be lynched today.
The No Lynch is a good idea if we can actually get a read tomorrow, unfortunately I doubt that. A No Lynch is fine if we have any blues left, but I don't think we do.
I really hope we have more than 1 blue role in a 12 player game. That seems like pretty bad odds for town. These games are supposedly looked at by the balance team before given the OK and put in the queue. I feel sure we have at least 1 more.
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On July 05 2012 22:25 ghost_403 wrote:
Just so there's no confusion, you cannot vote for a no lynch. The no lynch can still happen by voting in such a way that no one has the majority (5 votes at the moment), but you have to cast a vote for someone still in the game.
We cannot.
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Yea, I really don't think we're going to come to a consensus at this point. So I'm for no-lynch.
##Vote Miltonkram
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On July 07 2012 04:43 iamperfection wrote:
vote count
From my count its:
AmericanUmlaut (1): hopeless1der
BobTheLob (1): iamperfection
Hopeless1der (2): AmericanUmlaut, Promethelax
iamperfection (1): Miltonkram
Miltonkram (1): Keirathi
Keirathi (1): BobTheLob
Not Voted: Myles
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On July 07 2012 04:51 iamperfection wrote:
Isnt there only 10 mins left?
No. 1 hour, 10 minutes.
06:00 forum time.
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I don't think he would get instantly mod-killed.
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As much as I hate to do this, its LYLO so I'm going to give us the best chance of winning, even though it will probably cost me my life.
I am Motbob (Detective). I've hinted at it a few times already, not that that's proof or anything, but maybe someone picked up on it.
On Night 2, I investigated Myles. He returned Innocent. You'll notice that I gave him a high read in my night post, but then I laid off pressing him during the day. The possibility of a GF makes me still not dismiss him 100%, but I wouldn't vote him unless there was only 1 maf left and he was still alive.
Tonight, I am investigating Hopeless1der. I had a decently strong read on him coming into D3. His posting has improved a lot since N1, but I'm not entirely convinced after the no-lynch. However, if he returns innocent, then there's a decent chance that one of UA/Prom are mafia. We shall see.
I'll be posting the result on him as soon as I get the PM.
I had a hard time deciding who to Investigate tonight. If I look at everyone with what-if-this-person-is-mafia goggles, I can make a reasonable case against every single one. The main reason I decided to go with Hopeless in the end is that because of UA's last second unvote plan, we get information on 2-3 people instead of just 1.
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I was roleblocked 
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GG Milton. Sorry you had to come into a bad spot from a player who gave up.
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On July 08 2012 08:27 Myles wrote:
I still think bob voting himself is a tell that he is scum. My reasoning is that a real townie, even a dumb one, would consider the fact that putting a second vote on themselves makes it possible for scum to hop on and seal the lynch in that situation. Since he is scum it didn't cross his mind because he was focused on looking pro-town and going along with the no-lynch.
AmericanUmlaut suggested that we all vote for ourselves a while back when I mentioned that we would all have to have different votes for a no-lynch to work. Assuming he read that and remembered it, it was not necessarily a scum slip, just not paying attention and thought that was still the plan.
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@Promethelax: I did drop some hints about my role.
On July 05 2012 06:00 Keirathi wrote:
I feel like its my job as a townsperson to thoroughly investigate everyone individually
On July 07 2012 01:14 Keirathi wrote:
I felt it was my job to make a thorough investigation of everyone with "what-if goggles"
On July 07 2012 03:50 Keirathi wrote:
I feel sure we have at least 1 more [blue role]
As far as my first check, you can see in my notes that I had him as my second highest %, but once the day started I barely mentioned him except when I was specifically replying to Hopeless's post, and then I mentioned that I was giving him the BOTD and not pursuing his case.
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EBWOP: As far as who I think is scummiest, I'm leaning towards Iamperfection right now. I'll take another look through him and Hopeless tonight and decide on who I would want to push.
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I just thought of something I would like to mention: if Au and Prom are such global town reads, where's the benefit to the mafia to leave them alive? They've been two of the more active people, and have presented cases on nearly everyone.
I know thats a bit WIFOM, but its really, really fishy to me.
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On July 08 2012 17:19 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
In fact, if they have faith in Keirathi's work thus far, they may have even considered Promethelax and myself to be better chances at getting a mislynch than Milton.
Another possibility, which I consider less likely, is that Promethelax really is scum and has been playing brilliantly (obviously I have proof for my own part that I'm town). I would say that we should return to the possibility and give him a harder look if we are at a loss for better scum reads. Our priority for today, though, is to survive one more day, and that requires that we lynch the best scumread we have. At the moment, my opinion is that that is Hopeless1der -- not just because of my hammer trap; that was just the cherry on top of a delicious scumcake.
I highly doubt that. At least 4 out of the 7 players have shown some support for one or the other of you. Fencar/Milton was still a null at best, I think.
As far as this scenario: it makes very, very little sense. If Prom is scum, there's virtually 0 chance that Hopeless is too. So do you believe that Prom could be scum or not? This is something you can't wait until later to decide if you plan to vote for Hopeless.
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Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked.
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On July 09 2012 09:20 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2012 06:57 Keirathi wrote:
Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked. Is this poor play or a scum claim? How does a townie with an active blue role forget about the possibility of a role block? Sure, some roles can't be blocked but the active ones all suffer from that possibility just to balance the game. I have a hard time believing that you didn't take this into account, ah well, you aren't my number one scum read. But if I am right and Hopeless is scum you are the clear follow-up, unless you give us a real read the next night (which is backed up by either a tracker or a watcher, if we have a tracker I would urge him to track Kier to be able to counter his claim of checking someone in case it is false) or are NK'd
I just didn't think it through very well. I misjudged my odds of actually being roleblocked because I was late getting home from work and was trying to get my claim post out before the night ended. Mafia got lucky, I got unlucky.
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After mulling over this absolutely as much as I can stand, I believe that my vote today is going to go to AmericanUmlaut.
On top of the arguments Hopeless made + Show Spoiler +On July 05 2012 03:24 Hopeless1der wrote:Unfortunately our strongest reads have either flipped town or have been replaced, so its hard to stick to the case on Fencar/Miltonkram, or to build a solid case on BLiND-RawR/Keirathi. Fencar was decisively anti-town, but perhaps not scum. I know JH and others were adamantly against lynching when I wasn't certain of scum, but if I can't confidently identify scum, I'd rather lynch anti-town behavior on the chance that I get scum, which is what I view Fencar's play as. If my reasons or reads are not good enough, I'm trusting the rest of town to point out the scummier player to me when I don't see it. The most suspicious person I've identified based on the way the game has progressed is AmericanUmlaut. While he's been active, he hasn't posted very detailed reads. He also backed the Intact case, essentially copying mine and expanding on it, but never actually acknowledged that I'd made a case. In addition, the way his "Lurker PBU" Post went, he completely brushed off the actual lurkers in favor of the case he really wanted to discuss. He was also involved in both mislynches, but switched his vote Day1 after the bandwagon had started to roll. His vote was against me, but he has never really gone into any detail about his read on me, just piggy backing JH's case from Day1. This suspicion hasn't been addressed by him, but he's carried it through at the end of his Intact case, which as I've pointed out came AFTER mine: + Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:The lurking PBUThere are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote:
I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote:
In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help. Regarding the bolded in the last paragraph of the quoted post above...serious conflicting ideas there considering I'd just posted a large case that unfortunately contributed to lunching a VT. He completely agreed with my case though, even if he never referenced it. Since then he still kind of keeps my scumminess on his backburner but never addresses the case against me, and it feels like hes waiting for someone to bring it back up so he can jump on it. I'm stuck in null-read (I hope) limbo and I feel like I'm an easy bandwagon target so I'm very suspicious of his play regarding the case on me. Once Keirathi posted his detailed read of the thread so far, Umlaut felt it was necessary to piece-by-piece defend himself but has been pretty mute on the course of events otherwise. This isn't pro-town and sounds like he just wants to deflate Keirathi's contribution so that we end up with less credible information. Then again, so did Promethelax, and I'm watching him a bit more closely now, but I don't feel Keirathi's read on him is as strong as he's made it out to be. In addition, Prom didn't really attack Keirathi's post, and felt like a much calmer, reasoned defense than the tone of AmericanUmlaut's. FoS: AmericanUmlaut There is still the issue of Fencar/Miltonkram's case to look at...I guess I'll wait until Milton has a chance to catch up? Or possibly what turns up after the NK. There isn't anything new to pursue on Fencar aside from drawing arbitrary conclusions on why he chose to give up and that is not worth it to me. We're kind of forced to push that case based on what we had before Milton came in or else we lose a lot of our previous reads based on Fencar's behavior-related scumminess because Milton now has the opportunity to correct it even if he turns out to be scum.
1) Besides 2 of his "scumteam" flipping green already, he used Promethelax's scumteam verbatim.
2) JH was suspicious of him Day 1 and was NK'd on N1. Not that that is conclusive evidence, but it is circumstantial evidence, and something to keep in mind.
3) He got very defensive as soon as I mentioned him in my notes, despite giving him a light read.
4) His unvote yesterday only makes sense if Hopeless was scum, which I don't believe at this point. The fact that it didn't work leads me to believe that at least one of Prom/UA were scum, so the "gambit" was just show to buy town cred.
5) The thing that really sealed the deal for me, though, was Hopeless's argument about the votes on Anacletus day 1. When you put that on top of everything else, it pushes him to scum read for me.
After UA, the only other person I would feel comfortable voting for today would be iamperfection.
1) Extremely non-committal all game until:
2) Conveniently showed up on the MYLO day and gave his only really big read and push for someone.
3) Again, back to Hopeless's argument about votes: if you assume that mafia were trying to avoid putting all 3 of themselves on the Intact bandwagon, then perfection is the only person still in the game who didn't vote for Intact. (Well, I guess BlinD wasn't on the Intact vote either, but he also only had 1 post in all of day2 and didn't make a vote at all).
4) The death of Milton right after he made the read on perfection is fishy, but again, not concrete evidence, just circumstantial.
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EPT
