EPTThe difference in you and I is that I value information and you seem to think its a fruitless endeavor that has zero chance of helping. I'm willing to make a sacrifice in the name of gaining said information because if there is information, then we are in a better spot tomorrow.
Newbie Mini Mafia XVIII - Page 31
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
The difference in you and I is that I value information and you seem to think its a fruitless endeavor that has zero chance of helping. I'm willing to make a sacrifice in the name of gaining said information because if there is information, then we are in a better spot tomorrow. | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
A no-lynch scenario for information and time only makes sense if there's a lot of people and little information. Get it down to the wire like this, where there's almost no time left, and there's plenty of available information to sift through, and lynching makes sense. This isn't a game of chance, it's an educated guessing game. Some of us are actually trying to play that. If you want to play odds, try cards or dice. | ||
monk
United States8477 Posts
On July 03 2012 03:32 Keirathi wrote: No. You are twisting my words. My point is that the combined effects of better voting odds (you can't argue that 3/8 is better than 3/7) is better when COMBINED with the possible information from an extra night, than having a "spare town vote". The difference in you and I is that I value information and you seem to think its a fruitless endeavor that has zero chance of helping. I'm willing to make a sacrifice in the name of gaining said information because if there is information, then we are in a better spot tomorrow. This is way too much theorycraft for my taste. 3/7 is only much better than 3/8 if it's a game of chance. With educated guesses, the odds are quite far from that. Yes, we might get extra information tomorrow, but we just might as well get another blue role killed. And if Esspen is mafia, which imo is a high probability, then we'll be in a much better spot tomorrow than if we no-lynch. Again, I think we should focus more on who else is suspicious rather than waste time with this discussion. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 03 2012 03:28 NrGmonk wrote: Also, I don't think Keirathi is considering just the thought power that comes with 4 townies instead of 3. If we lynch a mafia member today, assuming we pick right, it will be 4 townies to 2 mafia tomorrow. If we decide no lynch, then in two days, it will be 3 townies to 2 mafia. The first case scenario is much much more desirable in terms of the ability for the 4 townies to reason and not get overwhelmed. We're basically betting that Esspen is mafia to get a 4:2 townie to mafia ratio instead of a 3:2 ratio, which again, is a bet I would definitely make. Finally a reasonable argument that I agree with. The only small problem is that we can't be wrong today, which you seem to understand but discount as a possibility. JingleHell wrote: This isn't a game of chance, it's an educated guessing game. This, I think, is our fundamental disagreement. I firmly believe it is a combination of both, based on past experiences. But, I'm tired of the arguing. I'm obviously not going to convince you, and I fundamentally disagree with you. You've backed me into a damn-if-I-do, damned-if-I-don't corner. | ||
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monk
United States8477 Posts
On July 03 2012 04:18 Keirathi wrote: Finally a reasonable argument that I agree with. The only small problem is that we can't be wrong today, which you seem to understand but discount as a possibility. No, I take that into account. Rather, my argument was that if Esspen is townie, we're almost as screwed if we don't lynch him(as opposed to lynching him), because of how uncooperative he's being. | ||
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BioSC
United States636 Posts
The problem with No-Lynch in my eyes is that it relies too much on unknowns. We don't know if there even are any more blue roles, or if they are even going to be helpful in a MYLO/Mass Claim scenario. I would rather put my trust in voting someone who's been acting scummier and scummier as the game goes on. ##Vote Esspen | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
You can gamble in a game where the random factors aren't what make the game. Yes, this game is about educated guesses and gambles, nobody argues that. But luck isn't what determines the outcome. The hosts don't throw an eight sided die and the corresponding player gets lynched. That's russian roulette, essentially. We pick, based on all available information. And I've already pointed out, numerically, why the odds are stacked against your plan of combining a throw of the dice and WIFOM and hoping lady luck is with us. What you're trying to do now is railroad a bad plan over everybody. I don't know if it's emotional investment or ulterior motive, but given that Monk has used similar reasoning and you didn't respond to him nearly the same as you did to me, it's clear that you've got success of something tied to this plan in your mind, and it somehow involves me. Now I'm with Monk. We should forget about this no-lynch nonsense, and start working on the next set of suspicions. However, I'm getting a little frustrated right now, so I'd like some time to compose myself before I start my work on that, to avoid tunneling or confirmation bias, as I'd like to be objective so we can be as sure as possible of catching the scum. Does anyone have any reads to post? | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
As far as arguing with you: I only argued so vehemently because you attacked me with your arguments. Monk was non-confrontational, so he got a non-confrontational reply. | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
Trying to evoke an emotional response to avoid debate doesn't help anyone, except maybe the scum, so stop doing it. In particular, when I've already hinted I'm done with the discussion, and said I want time to compose myself before making a case, you trying to push the argument just looks like an effort to discredit any future reads I make. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
JingleHell wrote: you trying to push the argument just looks like an effort to discredit any future reads I make. That's exactly what you've done to me. Seriously, where do I go from here? If I refuse to vote Esspen because I truly believe my plan can work, then I look scummy. If I vote Esspen, then I didn't really believe it in the first place, so I look scummy. I'm really in a lose-lose situation now. | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
On July 03 2012 05:36 Keirathi wrote: That's exactly what you've done to me. Seriously, where do I go from here? If I refuse to vote Esspen because I truly believe my plan can work, then I look scummy. If I vote Esspen, then I didn't really believe it in the first place, so I look scummy. I'm really in a lose-lose situation now. No, if you're town and truly believe your plan can work, that's up to you, although in light of the arguments against it, it comes back to what I said earlier about hopeless optimism. I did suggest that as a possible alternative to scum. I'm not going to make a case against you based off of just one thing, or off of an emotional reaction. I'm committing words, more than once now, to both of those being distinct possible alternatives to scum out of your behavior. Under the circumstances, you should be glad for that, as it's a big grain of salt that can be applied to any reads on you based on everything you've done, although I still intend to go through your filter with a fine-toothed comb. | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
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monk
United States8477 Posts
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vaderseven
United States2556 Posts
On July 01 2012 09:47 Blazinghand wrote: You can only use features other users have access to, such as filters  Blazinghand should be warned and or reported to the TL staff for telling a mod how to use his powers. P.S.  Don't imitate bolded red mod edit text, you noob. LEARN TO TAG RIGHT U NOOB | ||
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monk
United States8477 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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monk
United States8477 Posts
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