EPT/in
Questions
Will the game start with Day or Night?
Can medics save themselves?
When will the game start?
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
/in Questions Will the game start with Day or Night? Can medics save themselves? When will the game start? | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote: What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler + I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course. On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler + I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues. I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote: Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already. In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town. Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious. Hey sciberbia, remember this ##Vote: sciberbia ...heh heh heh Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler + soooooooooooooooooper serious My current opinion + Show Spoiler + FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I would like to know, about the setup. It says "You will know which roles may appear in the game but not the number", does it mean it is possible to have, for an extreme example: 3 godfather, 8 cops, 0 medics, 0 vet, 0 jailer, 0 vig and 1 VT? I know this is an extremely imbalanced setup but I just want to know if I can assume: a) Not all roles will be given. b) Not all roles are unique (more than 1) | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. Well, you were the one asking for my opinion on what has already posted. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. You can decide if I am honest about writing the post before s0lstice, which was also stated in my post. (I refreshed to see if there are new post before I "submit") I also shortened it to avoid long repeated post. I wrote the possible motivations behind suki's case. I don't see how it is "anti-town" or "just fillers", as these were exactly my thoughts on the case. FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed. IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-town As a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 11:03 roflwaffles55 wrote: Sure! When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1. As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2. roflwaffles55 also mentioned that I somehow "bandwagoned" and provided little to no additional content on suki's case, which I don't think is true. Well, he also voted me on these insubstantial reasons. Of course, he also missed one or two post made by Miltonkram and austinmcc, which posted something more or less what I said. Also, if I am the only one not bringing up cases, there should be at least 11 other cases already. Of course, those were ignored and he proceed to vote me. @trackd00r + Show Spoiler + Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO. This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him. My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. That said, Crossfire99 is still missing while HeavOnEarth only has his opening post. I would like to see other people's thought on suki and rolfwaffles55's cases. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. I also noticed you were focusing a lot on me, from asking my opinion to my opening post, proceeding to accuse me of supposedly leaking "scum-tells", and then voting me. I thought of your possible motives, and it made sense for both town and scum plays. (see summary) But enough of you, it is late over here so I think it is better for me to notify my leave as well as writing a summary. + Show Spoiler + I feel like there are still not enough post to build any case on. Maybe because of time difference everyone is sleeping while I am refreshing the page every 3 seconds. My standing on voting. + Show Spoiler + I know I might be talking votes too seriously as stated, but IMO townies should behave seriously and cast every votes (even if it is retractable) as if they are not allowed to retract, in other words, use ##FoS to declare an "eyeing" instead. Furthermore, I think it is beneficial to town if people cast votes seriously. Of course, I do agree on using it to apply pressure, but the effect diminishes if everyone just throws it around. @roflwaffles55 Current strategy seems to be "pressing one guy until he is dry", which make sense for both Scums and Town. Scum:+ Show Spoiler + <pick one target> and hope (s)he is inexperience and find out if (s)he has a power role. If (s)he slips, proceed to pursue for a mislynch. Town: + Show Spoiler + There is very little activity right now. <target> seems most scummy, lets see what we can squeeze out of him, and even if I am wrong we can get people to talk more. @suki First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r. Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful) That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to + Show Spoiler + Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse. I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people. I took too long just to type out a post (constant googling, spell checking) I only listed two person here because they stood out more to me: I planned to write a summary for everyone but it is too late now. Living at the other side of the hemisphere from the rest of players kind of suck. Will be seeing you guys in 7 hours, off to bed. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I am not sure if this is a impulsive call caused by the below statement I made: + Show Spoiler + @suki First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r. Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful) That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to - Hide Spoiler - Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse. while one hiding in the dark. I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people. I see you changed from soft defending me, to an instant "write a case->vote". But given that you aren't, l will just refute to the summary you made. + Show Spoiler + Summary 1. He's pro-actively defensive + Show Spoiler + I was tunneled by rolf, and I choose to confront it head on hoping it will clear myself. 2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions + Show Spoiler + How else am I going to defend myself other than justifying it? And you claimed I did not make "pro-town" actions. I beg to differ. I actively throw out all the possible motives. I believe later on day 2 when more solid facts are present (killing pattern/blue role have more ideas), we can rule out some of these motives to get a better picture. Right now, I am merely focusing on reading every player's patterns. 3. Defensive Aggression + Show Spoiler + You just repeated point 1. 4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle + Show Spoiler + If you are referring to the "red text mocked up case" I posted in defense of rolf's case by "proof by contradiction". 5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there. + Show Spoiler + How is rolf controversial? Also, I don't find my theory "questionable". I merely listed what happened. Please provide clear "questions" instead of vague accusation. 6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town. + Show Spoiler + Throwing random "solid reads" without proofs or substantial supporting reason is just as well as filler. I did not throw "solid reads", instead I posted the possibilities, which because of (refer to reply to #2), I think it is not scummy or even anti-town. ##vote alan133 + Show Spoiler + Another vote? I hope you read my stand on the weight of votes. It seems to me like you are either trying to start a bandwagon, or is not interested to play in a serious manner, which to me, is a solid anti-town behavior. Also, + Show Spoiler + This is extremely extremely scummy to me. What he's saying here is essentially this: "If not giving throwing out suspicions is anti-town, then I will prove my towniness by throwing out suspicions.", followed by attacking the person who attacked him. He finishes the post by saying My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. There is a mental disconnect here. 1. He feels throwing out suspicions is bad for town 2. He tries to prove his towniness by throwing out a suspicion at his attacker 3. He reinforces his belief that staying neutral is not bad town play If he really was town and he really believed that his way of playing was optimal, why would he have the need to go completely against his beliefs to prove his towniness? In his next post, the same trend continues. He spends time justifying his red text: The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. but the interesting thing is.. if it was so easy for him to build a case against waffles, why didn't he? Of course, because he didn't have any. He was simply defending via attacking. I did not build a case against waffle because it was merely a "proof by contradiction". I did not proceed to make a case against him because I want to refrain from being bias, which should agree with my policy. I just reasoned with myself why people think being neutral is bad. Pressuring someone even without firm evidence does not mean it is bad, even when the target is innocent, it gets people talking, and we can observe people's response and analyse the pattern. I got too paranoid of being too bias in my judgement. I also realize why people despise neutrals like what I originally wanted to be, that is because neutrals are seen to be afraid to face the consequence when people realized he lead a lynch on a townie. I hope people don't go "oh u contradicted your original policy" but nevertheless, I will change my game plan after seeing how it is beneficial. As for my opinion on the game right now, my attacking policy is to find "patterns" or indications of players "working" in a group. For day 1, there is no kill pattern to analyse. I suggested a "theory" based on a pattern I noticed, and was hoping third parties will comment on it, but unfortunately, only rolf and suki, the subject of my observation, commented on it. I am going to take on rolf and suki. I know it may seems like I am retaliating whoever that pressure me, and it could be bias, but this is what I honestly feel. This is my revised "conspiracy theory". + Show Spoiler + Suki screwed up with a really bad case. Rolf tried to divert attention from suki, so suki can retract "easily". -Rolf picked a weaker target -> me -Rolf ignore suki's case Both rolf and suki was convinced they got the scums in their opening case, but was easily swayed when they get little to no support. -Rolf toned down a lot when he sees no support Rolf's case gain more popularity. Suki jumps on the bandwagon and proceed to vote me. -Although this point is much weaker now consider that I provoked her I question Rolf's quote Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. Scum slip? That statement does not benefit town at all, and it seems like you were testing if I was "blue". Suki seems very sloopy. In the first case she bought up, it seems like she was convinced. Rolf share similar traits, however was less obvious. Summary: 1-Suki and Rolf is working together 2-Rolf avoided commenting on suki's case 3-Rolf took suki out of the spotlight, or at least, brought another person into it 4-Rolf can be seen to be scum hunting 5-Suki and Rolf confidently brought a case, and is easily swayed when they get no support. (staying out of the spotlight much?) 6-Suki hops on the bandwagon All in all, suki seemed more scummy than rolf. Rolf has understandable reason to suspect me, but suki start off with a bad case, followed by bandwagoning me to for a lynch. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Summary: 1-Suki and Rolf is working together 2-Rolf avoided commenting on suki's case 3-Rolf took suki out of the spotlight, or at least, brought another person into it 4-Rolf can be seen to be 5-Suki and Rolf confidently brought a case, and is easily swayed when they get no support. (staying out of the spotlight much?) 6-Suki hops on the bandwagon | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
My final vote would be: ##vote suki This is based on the reason given above. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@austinmcc I thought spoilers are supposed to keep it neat and more readable, but apparently not, so I will avoid that from now. Edit: I unconsciously included spoilers tag where it was appropriate, hope you won't mind. @Crossfire99 The majority seems to agree that Crossfire99 is one of the potential lynch target. I beg to differ. His posts was generally neutral, did not put pressure on anyone. I would like to say the case against Crossfire holds the same premise with the case rolf against me: not applying pressure while playing passively. The difference is Crossfire did not actively defend himself + Show Spoiler + edit: until now Not under suspicion currently @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler + And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + rolf@me suki@trap Very Suspicious @Mouldy Jeb's He echoed what I said, and came to the conclusion that it is dismiss-able without anything at all. Pure filler. The gut feeling about rofl is really weird. Look at this: Rolf said: Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself! Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r? I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence This is confusing as hell, and I don't think I want to read too much into it. His other posts were also echoes of what other people have said. He seems to still have an issue with Milton's "joke" vote, but never pursue it without saying why. I am interested to see what his views are, which he promised will be post shortly. Mildly suspicious Can't believe I took 1 hours just to write all this down. I also did a filter check on s0Lstice since no body has suspect him, and I realize I was writing a lot of fillers, and my conclusion is indecisive-he currently looks town, so it is gone. I refreshed and realize suki is still running her case upon me. @Suki Let me address your reiterated summary. 1. It's not that he is defensive. It's the way he's being defensive. He was extremely conscious of misinterpretations of his words in the beginning. He attacks his attackers. Despite feeling that throwing suspicions around was bad town play, he threw suspicions at roflwaffle to prove his towniness. I don't buy that his response was 'proof by contradiction', the tone is completely off. I am playing this game seriously. I reason people won't don't spoils the game, and that is both bad town and bad scum play. I know carelessly written post may lead to many different interpretation. I am trying to avoid that while struggling with the language itself. My first mocked-up case against rolf was indeed me attempting a "proof of contradiction", nothing more. Believing me or not is a subjective matter so I won't comment more than that. I do agree I did intensify my tone when I defend myself, I can't deny that, and if I am offer a chance to explain, I felt challenged. Also, attacking head on is nothing but defensive. I brought the spotlight to myself, trying to be as transparent as possible, believing it will establish my innocent. 2. He is inconsistent. He states that he doesn't like throwing out suspicions, that he thinks neutral play by town isn't bad for town. Yet he throws suspicions at those attacking him, and he continues to work with this idea that rofl and I are working together as a mafia ploy. Is that really the most suspicious part of this entire thread, are roflwaffle and me really the most suspicious people out of everyone else? I highly highly doubt it. He is inconsistent because he doesn't like throwing out suspicions (his reasoning for not commenting on anyone else it seems), yet he freely throws suspicions at his attackers. I did explained that I rethink on the "neutral" issue, and my conclusion is pressing someone is actually good. My second attack based on the theory is real. My "conspiracy theory" was based on a plausible scenario, given what stands out more to me. I don't want to be biasly attacking my attackers, but it is also bias if I consciously avoid to voice out what I think is wrong just because my subject attacked me. I also included you as scum in my theory when you were defending me, did I not?. A more precise way to describe it is that "I attack those who deem suspecting to me, whether they are defending me or attacking me, they brought me the most attention" When I first mentioned the "theory", I was still being neutral, and I originally intended to list it out as a possibility. Your bandwagoning on me also diverted my attention, with you and rolf focusing on me, I naturally re-focused on both of you. In addition, Alan's suspicions on rofl and I have more been about finding a way to make our play scummy, rather than pointing out scum motivations and tells. I stated my policy on coming out with the theory: finding group patterns. It strikes me as rolf was "defending" suki, suki later bandwagoned on rolf when he get more support. I did not want to make an excuse on "I am new", but I am still figuring out the meta-game, as I did with "being neutral" 3. He still hasn't done any analysis on any other players. Why? Has it not been made clear to you that your opinions are needed? Let me say it clearly: What are your opinions on everyone else? Do something productive for the town for once. Yes. Refer above, although time spending refuting your case could be used to look at other players. I also feel reluctant to give analysis after rolf's case, criticising me on repeating other people's point and has no opinion. That took me another hour, thanks suki -.- That said, I am willing to put down my theory for now due to this reason: Suki's first "meh" post was not as bad as I initially thinks. I read + Show Spoiler + Day 1 doesn't truly begin until someone makes a 'meh' case against someone else with a few 'meh' points. Of course, don't count this "theory" out yet, I am leaving it aside for Day 1. Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy ##unvote: Suki ##vote: HeavOnEarth I am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
1. It's not that he is defensive. It's the way he's being defensive. He was extremely conscious of misinterpretations of his words in the beginning. He attacks his attackers. Despite feeling that throwing suspicions around was bad town play, he threw suspicions at roflwaffle to prove his towniness. I don't buy that his response was 'proof by contradiction', the tone is completely off. I am playing this game seriously. I reason people WHO* don't PLAY SERIOUSLY* spoils the game, and that is both bad town and bad scum play. I know carelessly written post may lead to many different interpretation. I am trying to avoid that while struggling with the language itself. My first mocked-up case against rolf was indeed me attempting a "proof of contradiction", nothing more. Believing me or not is a subjective matter so I won't comment more than that. I do agree I did intensify my tone when I defend myself, I can't deny that, and if I am offer a chance to explain, I felt challenged. Also, attacking head on is NOT* defensive. I brought the spotlight to myself, trying to be as transparent as possible, believing it will establish my innocent. Proof check after post -- Genius. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Are we allowed to post after the deadline, 4:30 hours later? Are we allowed to post during the night? | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
| ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@mouldy/unforgiven_ve swap - my thoughts @sciberbia - my slight suspicion due to his discussion about night actions. @suki and rolf "conspiracy theory"- dismissing it @my thought on O.Golden_ne vs austinmcc. My suspicion on Golden has grown while austinmcc's filters strikes me as being town. @my prime suspect - roflwaffle55, please look at my reasoning before judging if I have a bias. I am aware I focused on him and suki a lot and seems to be counter attacking hard. I don't see why I should hide my suspicion just because I fear people will take it wrongly. Judge my reasoning!! I have not focused on other players yet, I will post my content soon. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I am not sure what to think of this, I feel like it has reset MJ/unforgive's rather bad position. Question + Show Spoiler + Is it cheating if I used mod's actions (modkill/player swapping) to backup my reasoning? I don't see this in the "cheating" section: I am not posting sharing mob's PM, just pointing out a very visible action mod did. I removed my reasoning as it potentially breaks the rule, but you should be able to see what I was going to talk about. @sciberbia I find his night post similar to the day post: giving advise. I am fine with the day post, but not with the night post Keep in mind the mafias game that I have played (outside TL, non forum-ish), discussions is not allowed right after the role flip. I may have overlook the "neutrality" on sciberbia's suggestions. That said, my idea was night action should never be discussed as it might reveal a blue. The only information that mafia does not already have is who among us has a power role. I also find the role block claim suggestion weird, especially he mentioned there is may or may not be a Jail Keeper and we can't differentiate which is what. This made me look through his filters again. His filters reveals that he has been focusing a lot on suki's cases, and has been defending me against her case. He is also having doubts on suki, but is with a valid reasoning. sciberbia is also one of the few who brought our attention to heavOnEarth. At that time, almost no one else paid attention to him, and I think there is no reason to "bus" a scum buddy in this early part of the game, unless it is a really (to avoid confusion) "high level mind game". I looked through his filter and seems like there is nothing else fishy about him, other than the night post, his analysis seems objective and clear, and is generally helping town. I know I am inconsistent with me deeming him "suspicious" in my summary post, but I did not read in detail at that time and now I actually think he is neutral if not, town sided for calling out a good read. sciberbia is off my radar for now @O.Golden I find Golden carelessly friendly. + Show Spoiler + Reluctant to vote on suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons. i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?). He don't "feel" like any of us is scum. He thinks Alan and suki is town. Then he commented about Crossfire + Show Spoiler + Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character. He thinks crossfire is townie, until this + Show Spoiler + honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers. GauldenWahn How are you sure sciberbia is not a scum, trying to misguide you? You seems to agree with anyone, but when someone else is questioned, you suddenly turn your Super Scum Detector towards said person. I find his reason for voting HeavonEarth echoes from other players, while this is a non issue consider how late he is and there is nothing much to add, These sentences really bothers me. + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang. in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. The first highlighted sentence seems to me you are trying to avoid a fight, you are afraid to stand out too much, even after being able to reply with a convincing answer for your defense, you just want it to stop right here, right now, "don't look at me". While I understand not everyone wants to stand out - The second statement set off alarm for me. Unless neutrals are involved, everyone "knows" themselves as town. This just shows me you are constantly aware that you want to present yourself as "town". + Show Spoiler + comments: i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm. SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying. This post agree with how I painted you so far. You diverts attention to me. What did you add to that post?
But wait, what did you said a few post ealier? + Show Spoiler + Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. You contradicted yourself saying I was being tunneled too hard and is not able to contribute when you defended me If I overlooked anything, please point it out. My point:
O.Golden is my secondary Suspect @austinmcc Looking at austinmcc's filter, he seems to be playing very dis-trustingly. This strikes me as a town trait for being uncertain of the situation. I would like to mention that in his Lurker and broken promise post, he did not mention Heave. He also did not vote Heav. Regardless, it wouldn't change the outcome, there is no risk of a NK. His reasoning behind voting Cross instead of Heave was pretty convincing too. austinmcc looks town to me @suki and rolf "conspiracy theory" Other than the reason I stated in my previous post how I over weighted suki's scum tell, I don't find her response consistence with my reading. If they were indeed partners, I don't see any motivation behind scum suki's outburst and openly confronted me. If scum suki is scum, she would have been intentionally defending me against her buddy. She should be aware that I wasn't only attacking the ones that attack me. Scum suki would want to stay quiet, like what rolf did. He simply did a "OMGUS", ignoring the reasoning I gave, while repeating his case with the exact same points. Suki, on the other hand, did a case with valid reasoning on me, and she was pushing her agenda on me until she got a satisfying answer. This gives me a town read on her. I would like to see other people's standing with suki. Suki-rolf scum-buddies scenario is unlikely. Suki's seems probable town to me @rolfwaffle55 I will dedicate a separate post just for you. I have more than enough proof in your Day 1 play to write a decisive case on you. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@blue action discussion I am backing off my "night action discussion issue" from sciberbia. The first glance I thought it is weird for someone to post such a thing in the middle of a game, I feel like it is making blue obvious. While thinking about it I realized I failed to see this is exactly the "discuss blue strategy" in the beginning, which, while I think it is abusable by scums, I don't see why it does not benefit town. My two cents: @Cops should not check rolf. We have a very strong case against him already. I don't see him getting out of this. @Medics should save more influential or talk-active players. @Vigils should just shoot rolf, I don't see him getting out of this, so rather than wasting a lynch I suggest killing him right here right now. @The case against rolfwaffles55 I don't have time to write a long post, basically sciberbia covered what I wanted to say. The part that gives me a 100% confidence towards rolfwaffles55 being scum #2 is this post. + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote: I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it. Crossfire99 Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it. His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live. alan133 I've already tunneled the crap out of him, and his defenses have been drastic and overly reactionary. If he were left alive, I honestly think he could do a fair bit of damage as scum, just because he defends very well and seems to have people convinced as to his innocence. HeavOnEarth His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum. Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on. suki It would be self-serving of me to defend suki, as she took my case against alan133 and improved it, I believe in her case. But for the benefit of the doubt, let's assume she's scum. The strength or lack thereof (trapd00r case) of her cases imply that she's trying to lead the vote towards those that aren't scum. If she is scum, she could be quite dangerous later on. All of that theorizing on what they "could" do if they were scum being done... I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched. ##vote Crossfire99 This post screams SCUM in my face. The priority in a day 1 lynch is to discuss who is the best candidate to kill, not who is more dangerous if left alive. There is not even one, yes, not even ONE legitimate motivation for a townie to say. No. Instead, it makes a lot of sense in the scum's POV. Scums, if possible, has all the motivation to look for the most potentially dangerous townie to lynch. This is pretty much the nail in the coffin. "Okay, lets not get away with ourselves. What if rolfwaffles55 is just making a big noob mistake." No. This is a noob scum mistake. Besides, go through his filter if you must. He show no sigh of being town, constantly accusing people for not standing to the spotlight, but he contradicts his own policy by backing off when he gain no support for his case. He leave a case because no one supported him, not his target give him a satisfying answer. There, thanks sciberbia for writing. It saves my time from a few hours of constant googling. I think rolfwaffle55's case is rock solid and we should start looking for a 3rd scum now. I would like to know other people's opinion on my O.Golden's case. I was not suspicious on him until I looked closely on his filter. I would also like to see s0Lstice's 3rd scum. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Crossfire I love your analysis post on who voted Heave. I hope you can do one based on Heave and rolf's actions, FoSes and votes too. I did a quick look myself, but I think it will take too much time for me to write it out, and it is going to be really hard to read anyway. I think we can used this to rule out bad townie play from scummy methods. @Unforgiven Welcome! Given that Heave is Godfather, and rolf being second scum, their actions suggests MJ was simply being a very bad town player. I suggest people reread their filters @me on Golden Based on the patterns of both scums, I lowered my suspicion towards Golden. To refute my own point about trusting me and suki, there are already a few posts ahead of him indicating our innocents. I still don't like how he changes his judgement based on other people's opinion. For now, I want to rule him out because it is inconsistent with heave's and rolf's motives. @suki on trapd00r I do not have time to evaluate trapd00r's filters and it is really late now. Upon quick investigation, I somehow found something that I never really pay attention to before. On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote: @trackd00r This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him. Expand quote to see trackd00r's attempted to put words into my mouth. Rolf bandwagoned later. If rolf and track are really scums, I feel like that picked a wrong target. It is 3:14 am here and I am going to bed. I will most likely be back after the day post, so just in case I die, here is my current view and hopes for future town direction. I think rolfwaffle55's case is decisive. Tomorrow there will be a kill so if rolf was not shot, please evaluate that kill pattern. Who did they went for, what was their stand. Think about if they were trying to push a victim's misread before he die. Think of all the possibilities, and if there are too many clashing possibilities from both sides, skip it. It won't lead you anywhere. I hope crossfire can contribute by evaluating HeavE's and Rolf's actions in day 1. I hope suki can continue to pressure trackd00r the way she pressured me. I hope rolf dies in a night kill  Stay focus on getting the last scum, don't throw out FoS all over the place, work together and analyse one player at a time, and we should be on our way to an "Overwhelming Town Victory" | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I wrote: I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote: @trackd00r This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him. Cheers. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I just woke up and have something to attend to, so here is my quick thought. @austin I was on the fence on austin, but I will look at the kill pattern later. @s0Lstice VIGIL DO NOT CLAIM. There is no advantage for town to get hard confirmed townie right now, only scums benefits from that. I get rather suspicious on s0lstice, but it could be a logic flaw from a townie. I am going to look at his filter later when I am free. I think I came to a solid analysis on my rolf + suki case, but since s0l brought it up I will do a quick review to see if I missed anything. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I see. I missed a few things and underestimated the town benefit with a vig claim. Originally I thought scum is just going to kill off a confirmed target, but that is not really a good kill for scum considering vig is now officially a VT. However, I think unless the vig is among the lynch candidate, or is in danger of getting lynched, he should not claim. There is no reason to claim if everyone has a strong town read on him. If a claim is made: -If it is a fake claim, real vig should always COUNTER CLAIM. -If there are no counter claims, I suggest we take his word for who he is, and pick another candidate for a lynch. I also think that if there is a cop and has a guilty, out with it, if not, continue hunting. That is enough discussion on blue's action. Unless there is anything I said is flawed, we should now concentrate on hunting the last scum. I hope there is more post from other people I will post my summary soon once I am done with my analysis. EDIT: Just noticed I clicked on preview not post | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@s0Lstice on suki - I am defending suki @analysis on austinmcc'd death - He avoided the spotlight and looks fishy to me. Motivations for scums to kill him. @My main FoS O.Golden_ne - friendliness, no sense of him protecting himself against Lies, and supporting evidence. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@ Golden Oh Golden, you mean this+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 19:07 alan133 wrote: @O.Golden I find Golden carelessly friendly. + Show Spoiler + Reluctant to vote on suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons. i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?). He don't "feel" like any of us is scum. He thinks Alan and suki is town. Then he commented about Crossfire + Show Spoiler + Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character. He thinks crossfire is townie, until this + Show Spoiler + honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers. GauldenWahn How are you sure sciberbia is not a scum, trying to misguide you? You seems to agree with anyone, but when someone else is questioned, you suddenly turn your Super Scum Detector towards said person. I find his reason for voting HeavonEarth echoes from other players, while this is a non issue consider how late he is and there is nothing much to add, These sentences really bothers me. + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang. in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. The first highlighted sentence seems to me you are trying to avoid a fight, you are afraid to stand out too much, even after being able to reply with a convincing answer for your defense, you just want it to stop right here, right now, "don't look at me". While I understand not everyone wants to stand out - The second statement set off alarm for me. Unless neutrals are involved, everyone "knows" themselves as town. This just shows me you are constantly aware that you want to present yourself as "town". + Show Spoiler + comments: i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm. SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying. This post agree with how I painted you so far. You diverts attention to me. What did you add to that post?
But wait, what did you said a few post ealier? + Show Spoiler + Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. You contradicted yourself saying I was being tunneled too hard and is not able to contribute when you defended me If I overlooked anything, please point it out. My point:
O.Golden is my secondary Suspect I will reformat the contradiction part Earlier, you said: Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. But later a few post later: We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game There is a mental disconnection. There is nothing in between. You simply agree with people when they post a case. I don't see how you answered my question: and alan i dont see the contradiction you underlined. you were being tunnelled. when you get tunnelled by someone its incredibly hard to do anything but defend yourself for a whole day. thats what i was saying. no contradiction. My premise: You started out defending me, and suggested I got tunnelled too hard. Later, you say I "obviously" should be tunnelled. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I agree her first post is a blunder. Pointing out contradictions when there are non, and boldly vote based on that. I also don't like the way she back out from her "meh" case against trackd00r. Someone pointed out that she said it was a "not so strong contradiction" instead of apologizing for misunderstanding. However, her later posts were more creditable. When I wrote about a "conspiracy" between rolf and suki, rolf shys away while suki attacks me head on. Suki's case was focused on what I have said, and mentioned rolf only for factual references. I like the way suki backed off from me. She provided a reason other than just switching votes. Also, during her tunnelling, she did asked me to do something "good" for the town to show my alignment instead of just pressuring me. Her second case on trackd00r was more than just a "meh" case. Her reason was solid, and I suggest that you read it . I don't see why she shouldn't make a case on trackd00r just because she did a "meh" case on him before. On her crossfire post, she was making an analysis on him and is still on the fence regarding crossfire, I don't see that as a scum move. If you are not sure, there's no reason you shouldn't say so. I don't think she bounces like a ping pong ball. Her actions were justifiable, and give her other townie traits I am putting her on the "town" side. @Austin's death I originally thought it was going to be either sciberbia, s0Lstice or me biting the bullet. I don't have a strong impression on austin before the Day 2 post. I have a slight town read on him, but I remain cautious of him, and thought he had a low profile. The part where he voted Crossfire seems really weird to me. I kept wondering if this is a WiFOM, or he feels he have strong enough reasons to think Crossfire is scum, and it does not cause a NL, so why not. I went over austin's posts without doubting his town role and realized he contributed much more than I originally thought. He didn't seem to post much, but his analysis is very strong. I thought scum's decision is bad, but now I really wish austin was among the ones that is still alive here. Austin's main FoS towards the end of the day was Crossfire. However, Crossfire has legitimate reasons to be missing + Show Spoiler + Hope you're okay btw. I noticed austin's post on O.Golden_ne that no one seems to give a damn about, perhaps other than trackd00r. His case on Golden strikes me as it being similar to the case I brought about. His main argument against Golden is most of Golden wrote was fillers, despite it looks like he is contributing. All for all, reading austin's post convinced me to re-raise my suspicion towards O.Golden_ne. @O.Golden_ne Despite me refuting myself previously, I would like to re-establish my case against Golden due to austin's filters. The reason that caused myself to doubt this case was due to HeavonEarth's vote on Gold, but now I dismissed it as it can potentially be a bus. Please take a look a the spoiler on the previous post I wrote, I dumped my whole case against him there, and I don't want to spam my case My summary for Golden is
All in all, O.Golden_ne looks really fishy and right at this moment, I am comfortable to lynch him @Suki on Trackd00r My day 1 impression on Trackd00r is that he is very careful around people and fast to accuse. I felt like this is because he don't know who to really trust. It also looks like he is trying to contribute. He posts his analysis and has his original opinion. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
If scum decided to go after him at night, he is taking the shot for any other potential blue. I am the Vigilante and I shot roflwaffle55 @O.Golden_ne Addressing to some of your answers: + Show Spoiler + •O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone. Crossfire + Trackdoor I am talking about in your day 1 play, it strikes me that you treat everyone as a townie •O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums I dont agree with you. Town or scum, no one will agree getting themselves lynched •O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said. Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok.... I am saying •O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree. you are a retard. I suggest you keep clam. If there is something wrong about it you can simply say it out. Personal attacks and flipping out is a anti-town trait •O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off. I agree. Scum and town will want to do this. •O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler + i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar. I can actually come out with a better answer for you First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: I missed this. alan113 proposes that we lynch anyone who is friendly. On day 1, townie has 0 clue. Being friendly shows that you are not concerned about a person's alignment, that would fit a scum's PoV. I looked at the HeavonEarth's post that have a link to one of Gold's game's filter as town. He is wrongly accused yet he replied calmly. This makes me curious: when Austinmcc questioned Gold, Gold seems slightly annoyed. Gold is obviously annoyed at my questions. I see quite a contrasting personality. Seems like HeavonEarth's went so far to do a Gold analysis. I counted out Gold in my last last post because of this, then it strikes me: It feels like Gold is the only person HeavonEarth cares about, so I don't count out a bus. Also, Gold, I find your analysis interesting and opened me up to a different perspective. I am waiting for more people to comment on my case on you. Also, trackd00r, who is your FoS and what do you think of Gold? | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 02:42 s0Lstice wrote: Nice shooting there tex! Alright, check this out. I have a plan We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose? Right now: 8 town, 1 scum After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory) By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects. All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one. Here is my proposed list: 1. suki 2. O.Golden_ne 3. Unforgiven_ve 4. trackd00r In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99. I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this. Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town. Everyone please tell me what you think. I think this is a pretty good idea, but I prefer this queue. 1. s0Lstice 2. O.Golden_ne 3. trackd00r 4. -undecided yet- I had a town read on you, but your suggestion flashed a big BIG WARNING sign. Don't take me wrong, I think it is normal for a townie to suggest this, but this has no guarantee. This is my scenario: Assuming s0Lstice is scum In this scenario, it is scum's guaranteed win. Advantage/Disadvantage from SCUM's POV +Scum guaranteed win +After town agreed upon a fixed lynch target, it halts all discussions. +I foresee chaos when villagers begin to doubt on the lynch targets, closer and closer to the end. -Bussing early puts scum in a very bad position no matter how you look at it, but this is what he cooked up all the while, and if he managed to pull it off, this is a confirmed scum win. -It will take 15 long days for the game to end, assuming host will not allow a change in day/night time. The short answer is I am not a big fan of the plan. If I ever agree to go with this, s0Lsitce has to go first for a fail safe. After that, we will have to narrow down to 3 scummiest player. 3 out of 7 (1 confirmed) by random chance, a little less than 50% (42.86%), not really bad since we can also rely on town/scum reads. Given my condition that you must die to proof your innocent, do you, s0Lstice, still want to proceed with the plan? Others: I want to hear your opinion on this. Think about my doubts on the plan and my condition, but the priority is still to get your 3rd scum read. It is late over here, so I will go through s0Lstice's filter again tomorrow morning. My comfortable lynch targets for today is O.Golden_ne and trackd00r See you guys. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Other than that my only suggestion would be to make sure our list is flexible. If the potential scum is outside of that list, they would of course give you the green light on this plan. Make sure that this list doesn't destroy our ability to effectively pressure and hunt scum. Keep other players on your radar. Keep up pressure on players. This nullify the existence of this plan. With or without this plan, we will always have a list of most scummy to least scummy player. Also, take a look at my condition. I suggest everyone read through my view on s0Lstice's case. Its in my previous post. Unless s0Lstice agrees to sacrifice himself, this is a no go for me. @s0Lstice I am eager to see your answer: Will you proceed with the plan if you were to be the first to go? I will expect an explanation. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Sorry I skipped through your answer I sensed this could be possibly a last ditch effort to get a scum win. I got a town read on you, does not mean you are a confirmed townie. In fact, there is no way to confirm. I don't want to draw another case based on speculations, but lets be real. There is no guarantee that you are town, and if you are not, it became a guaranteed scum win. I sincerely would not feel bad if you flip green, no offence here, but I play to win, and that's the only way to guarantee a "guaranteed town win". If anything, I'd want to make sure you win with me. Right now, this plan the way you proposed, it only guarantees your victory, be it town or not. Of course, if you are town, I don't really mind BUT, let me repeat again, there is no guarantee, until you true colors are shown.Also, both O.Golden_ne and trackd00r must be in the list, which was not in your revised order. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@s0Lstice I hope you can get into my head by now. Assuming sciberbia, another player that I+ Show Spoiler + and assume you too Also, upon re-analysing, I don't see why we shouldn't make a list of scummy players, but why fix it? You mentioned we have 3 mislynch, that gives town a big advantage right now, but what have your suggestion improved town's advantage? Upon rethinking into your plan, it feels like it is what we are supposed to do in normal circumstances, but you suggested no more discussion after we fix it. Fix it or not, we have 3 mislynch regardless. Is it me, or I am sensing a scum slip?. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I see, thanks for your input. I scrapped the case I was writing going after s0Lsice, but I am no longer confident with my town read on him. I see you were in past game with s0Lsice, did he usually make logical flaws when he is town? He made a few in this game: vigil not Nking obvious lynch target, the "plan" he came up with. I hope to see your read on who is the 3rd scum. I am still debating over this, but my brain is not functioning well at this hour. Should we get everyone to claim? I want to see your thoughts. @s0Lsice I did not FoS you merely on your post. There are other tells, for instance: suki defended your case against her. I defended her. I am not sure if you replied, but I did not read it if there is one. If you did not. you still insisted suki is suspicious even without a good reason. @Everyone else I really got to go to bed now. Do not do an analysis on s0Lsice's plan for now. Focus on getting a 2nd day lynch target. Don't be afraid to list down multiple suspect even when there is only one left, of course, don't list down everyone of course, and please provide a reason. Signing out. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I see I misunderstood your "plan", so you were just listing down people to lynch, and say we are lynching these people over the 4 days, forcing a reaction from them. We are officially dropping this right now. I would like to ask for your FoS, but I see you have strong opinions on suki. Please post your case on suki, or direct me to your response to her defence/my defence. I couldn't see suki as scum. I see her sudden change of stance from defending me against a scum and attacking me upon looking at my "conspiracy theory" to be an instinctive solo action. I don't see a connection between her and rolf, and her backing off me was pretty reasonable. Her changing votes to HeaveonEarth was also reasonable, given that she was focusing on me most of the day. Good hunting. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I somewhat lost confidence in my scum hunting abilities. This is partially due to the people that I regard has high analysis skill pushing the lynch on suki, while I have a town read on her. You can read my defence for her. The other thing is, I did not thoroughly consider s0Lstice's conditions when he proposed his plan. I failed to see the townie's motive and spent my time going through his filter, attacking him and sabotaged his plan. I don't know if he truly understand my doubts against him, but the response from him suggesting no, and I feel like a scum s0Lstice would easily get what I said and start defending. Regardless @Suki My view on suki remain unchanged, I went through s0Lstice's and defended for her. However, if you missed my spoiler, with 3 strong analysis pushing a lynch on her, I think I could be wrong. I hope they consider her defence, and mine. I am not willing to lynch suki. Unless it risks an NL, I will not put my vote on suki. @O.Golden_ve I went through one of his game's filter in his history as VT, and I notice he is similarly defending both sides when two people are tunnelling one another, stating they could be just two townies tunnelling each other. I find his friendliness is consistent in this game. However, when I brought up a case against him here, he got mad. It contrast his last game. When a case was brought up to him, + Show Spoiler + that eventually got him lynched, The first point directly debunk my main point in FoSing him: being too friendly. I will still keep an eye on him, but I think I got a better lynch target. @trackd00r I noticed in Day 1 he throws weak cases about. I mentioned in a post that he stretched my words following rolf's case against me. Suki posted a case on him, so please read that as if someone else as wrote it to avoid bias. I intentionally asked trackd00r for Golden's case. I was hoping he leaks scum tales. Assuming scum trackd00r, one of the reason to kill austin, is to push austin's agenda for lynching Golden day 2, and it is consistent with his day 1 vote. He did not mention any of this, but he is aware that town is having high morales and scums are probably shitting themselves right now I am not sure if this is anything of significant, but I could be a far sketched scum slip. trackd00r votes O.Golden_ve, like HeaveonEarth did. Golden pointed this out and I originally thought this is way too obvious to be a scum tale, but the possibility is there. I changed my mind on Golden's case. I will reserve judgement until trackd00r flips town, that also means I am going to push a lynch on trackd00r. EDIT: While writing trackd00r's case, I refreshed and saw s0Lstice's case. This gives me my confidence back. Anyone wants to build a case on me for bandwagonning? ##vote: trackd00r @sciberbia I don't know if I am allowed to tell the time, but here is some of my "inner monologue" during the night. I have a strong scum read on rolfwaffles55, and is pretty convinced he is scum. I was debating against myself if I should shoot him right away. There is no clear scum #3. I originally wanted to let him live, hoping that he will slip and reveal his partner. However, I later debates that it is not guaranteed for rolf to slip his partner, he probably will lurk through both days, and if I don't take the shot now, we will waste one whole day cycle just to get him lynched, especially he is on the top of the most wanted list. Also, I don't know if dead scum is allowed to contribute in the scum chat, but leaving the last scum with no allies destroys his morale. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@sciberbia I think I am too far fetched from your original intention for asking about my lynch time, but I you can tell I switched to focusing on getting a 3rd scum in the middle of the night phase, and I posted my pm long before. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@sciberbia I think I am too far fetched from your original intention for asking about my lynch time, but I you can tell I switched to focusing on getting a 3rd scum in the middle of the night phase, and I posted my pm long before host's blue text. The confidence is making me way more careless :S | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
We already got two scums and by right townies should be very comfortable. I am not going to build a case on you now to keep the focus on trackd00r, he looked scummier to me, and if he turn red, I'd say it's a nice clean town victory. I casted my votes on trackd00r, and I am afraid I won't be around close to lynch time. Do not NL under any circumstances. It's Monday morning here (1:20 am) so I need to sleep now, cheers. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I want to start with a few questions for the mods When a scum is dead, is he/she still allowed to contribute in the scum chat? I read the answer regarding scum RB and killing. If there are 3 scums with killing ability, are they allowed to kill 3 person (1 person each) provided they don't use their role's special ability? @Blue Night Actions I don't know if we should discuss blue night actions now, but given that I already am a confirmed one-shot vigilante that has already used up his shot, here are my suggestions: Cop: I know it is obvious I am town, but if you aren't convinced I am Vig, there is no reason real vig don't counter claim, so use it on someone else. I think the priority comes down to this. Use it on the person you FoS most. If you can't come out with one, use it on a lurker, since they are really hard to read. However, if I am cop, I would have picked s0Lstice. He reads town, but the suggestion really throws me off. I really want to know if I can really trust such an influential player, especially when he proposed his plan. Medic: Don't use it on me. I am basically a VT now. Use it to save other potential blues. If I were you I will use it on my most comfortable town read, and if there is a tie, I will go for the most influential and analytic one. Jailer: Go for your main FoS. If there is a kill, he is certainly clean. If there is no kill, it could be: The person you jailed is scum. Medic saved victim. Scum No kill <---- (unlikely) If scums are jailed, I assume they can't kill that night, no? Vigilante: I don't know if there is another one out there, but if there is, shoot only you are certain. Don't hide even if you kill an innocent, just out it so we can identify another 100% clear. Also, don't shoot me. If multiple vigs went for the same target, do they all lose their bullets? Veteran: If there is a second one, claim in Day 3 if you are hit. @O.Golden_ne Now that trackd00r flipped town, you are my next FoS as stated in my day 2 post. I think given our current situation, it is okay to be a little depressed. Can you explain why this game made you so anxious as you stated in day 2? I think town was in pretty good shape in day 2 and if anything, it caused me to get careless. If you are town just answer truthfully, don't lie just because you think the truth is less convincing. Give your last day's post, your FoS is Crossfire now. This is due to the vote thing, but Crossfire did not vote because he was involved in an accident and is unable to return to vote, so that clears him off your radar. Who is your main FoS currently? @Suki Many people has mentioned suki. I think she is the current "most wanted" person. I will reserve my judgement until I re-examine her again. Day 3 stuffs that is currently not important and shouldn't be the priority in current discussions: Should we mass role claim in day 3? If PMs are allowed I would have asked for everyone to PM their roles in day 2 already. I want to know if anyone agrees/disagree. I hope we all keep an open mind. As long as someone is not 100% confirmed, leave some rooms for doubts. And if that last scum wants to take me out, COME AT ME BRO. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I wrote a post without writing my agenda first, I started a long time but later I saw crossfire's post. I did not intended to write anything against sciberbia even though I find him acting "weird", and only wanted to say "if sciberbia and s0Lstice lived through the end, be wary of them". After seeing crossfire's post, I decided to add on to what I find sciberbia weird. About day 2 Even before sciberbia did not point out rolfwaffles, I am already debating with myself if I should shoot him, and I consulted my mentors if I should just shoot someone I am convinced is scum, or just spare him and see if he leaks the 3rd scum. I was quite sure rolfwaffle is scum reading his scum slip post, and that happens just as I was reading a mafia guide on how to find scum slips, and the example provided in that guide is strikingly similar to what rolfwaffle said. Given that, a scum scriberia, will probably pick that up and recognize rolfwaffle's slip cannot be savior, why not point it out himself? I can see why rolfwaffle did not post at all after his "yay mafia died" post. I assume he is told by a stronger player to stop posting in care he leaks anything else. I will try to finish my post. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I meant to say night 1, not day 2. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On June 18 2012 13:00 s0Lstice wrote: Suki, you are saying then that HeavOnEarth, confirmed scum, began bussing his teammate in his very first post, and spent his entire time in this game trying to get his teammate lynched. Please explain this. I am the one who said that. I noticed how HeavonEarth started his post by writing a case on O.Golden_ve. He went so far to post a link to Golden's filter from another game. That is when Golden posted only once. HeavonEarth's first post seemed confident that Golden is mafia. Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him. He did not attempt to call out any other player. He bandwagoned on Crossfire when austin called him out. He then went back to voting Gold without a reason. I thought trackd00r has a high chance to flip scum since he also voted on Golden D1 based on my reasoning, even though it seems too obvious to me, but I was wrong of course. I analysed rolf's filter, and there is one player that was never ever mentioned in his posts, not even in the content of his direct quotes: O.Golden_ve. In his post [spoiler]that he slipped hard, about how "dangerous" is it to not lynch someone, he soft defended HeavonEarth. While what I am going to say may seem sketchy, he had suki in it, but he did not mention Golden_ve. He also said that we can't get anything out of HeavonEarth's posts even if he flips mafia, which tickles my curiosity. He forgotten Heavon's accusation on Gold. It also seems like everyone thinks newbie mafias are not likely to conduct a bus, I beg to defer. That is like saying bronze/silver/gold players are less likely to cheese in a SC2 game. I don't think even a highly sophisticated player wants to bus both of his player in day 1 given the time needed to win. The closer to the end the worse he gets, unless he can kill role checking blues. Each day pass means at lease one more conformed townie (that died) I understand how people came out with suki as the most possibly scum by the process of elimination. I think many people rule Golden out because he was tunneled by Heavon. If it came to the conclusion that scum has bussed, I would like you all the consider Golden as a potential lynch. Also, s0Lsdice, in your argument for the process of elimination, you did not do an analysis on Suki. You simply pushed her to the end of the list, gave town reads on everyone before her, and say there's no one else. I don't like that. I know I am protecting suki hard, and if she really flips scum I will look like a total idiot, but I hope we play fair here. Arguments for O.Golden_ve Mafia Golden -Golden's aggressive towards those that accuse him, unlike him in another game where he is town -Golden's anxious in day 2 after 2 scums has died Townie Golden -His friendliness is consistent with his other game, other than the aggressive defense -When I read HeavonEarth's filter, it feels like the Godfather genuinely want to push for a mislynch. -He did contributed in bringing out ideas. His friendliness is very muck alike with my "neutral" policy. I treated everyone as potential scum and he treated everyone as potential town. -The first 2 scums were kind of new and made very obvious mistakes, I don't think mods will assign all mafia slots to 3 weaker players. + Show Spoiler + sorry rolfwaffle, HeavonEarth and Golden. I put myself in this category so I too) Other traits: -HeavonEarth paid most attention to him. He flips Godfather. -Rolfwaffle paid absolutely no attention to him. He flips goon. -Golden talked about the lynch votes, and suggested trackd00r/Crossfire should be lynched because they did not vote for Heavon. This could be seen as defensive scum move since it rules him out of the lynch targets, but I don't think a scum Golden will be bold enough to lead a wrong lynch. @Crossfire I refreshed and saw Crossfire's post. I thought sciberbia acted weird at times (with different reasons) but I dismissed it because I see the "townie-ness" of sciberbia. I thought my points are going to be insignificant especially when I usually got really little supporting points, so I didn't talk about it, and I want to avoid creating too many cases and cause a confusion. I did not post a summary but I meant to say be weary of him if Golden and Suki did not flip mafia, and that he don't die. When s0Lsdice talked about his plan, one thing comes to mind: what if the players that I have a strong town read turns out to be scum? I thought scum s0Lsdice will benefit the most from a fixed lynch, but it seems like he did not get what I wanted to say so I don't think s0Lsdice is mafia. His intention is good. Scriberbia said he did not like the fixed lynching. I asked for Scirberbia's opinion if s0Lsdice is scum, and he simply say this: + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 06:30 sciberbia wrote: @s0Lstice, alan It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now. about the plan I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not. I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads. @alan I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia.. My first impression is scriberbia trusted s0Lsitce a lot, but why? There is no reasoning to back up to, but I thought maybe I think too much, or there is a certain explanation to that trust. Also, trackd00r seems to agree with me in day 1. s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia? I also don't like his sudden jump on Suki on day 2. It seems like he has zero opinion on suki, and then suddenly jumped the gun and came out with suki. When I asked for a third target yesterday, he did not out with any. I really dislike the Milton case. Being unsure of the situation is typical townie strait. In day 2 I am unsure of Gold and trackd00r, so I jumped back and forth, but because I am a confirmed blue, I wasn't targeted for a lynch. I also don't like how he jumped the gun and think only good players can conduct this bus. I find O.Golden scummy and it is plausible that he is involved in the bus, but sciberbia does not see any of that. It also seems like sciberbia is constantly trying to remind everyone he is as clueless as everyone else: -He stated that he wanted to know why austin was the target -He asked about 3 Nks. I find this silly since he played a few games already so he should have known the rules. I think crossfire did a good job with analyzing scribebia, I want to see the response from scribebia himself. Summary I think Suki is on the death toll tomorrow. I still think she is town regardless what was posted, but I will vote for her if it risks a no lynch. Remember town, 3 more mislynch for us, so never ever NL. Suki, if you are blue, please post your actions tomorrow if you can't convince them to put the votes off you. Please do so as soon as possible because not many people are around to make the switch. I also think I am going to die tonight. I rule out controversial players and think its either me, s0ldice or Crossfire biting the bullet this time. I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly. There are 7 townies and 1 scum. It is very likely anyone can be town, but it also means it is easier for scums to hide and create chaos. I think the pattern identified by cross on scibebria is very sound and fits in a well played mafia motivation. Things that I wanted to share before but did not out with it because of fearing scums will take advantage of this, but just in case I die: *There is a high possibility for cops to exist, although it is not 100%. Think about why Godfather exist. Question: Do people get a message when they are role blocked even they have no roles? *Please out with the role block tomorrow if any. Come to think of it, did scibebria mentioned outing rb when you were role blocked during 1st night? This seems like a day 2 action for townie, but a night action for scum | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
About Golden's case, if you read correctly, I actually have more point supporting him rather than against him. About the motivation behind a bus, please do remember that this is a newbie game. It is even harder to read Sorry that I didn't mention my above post was regarding after Suki is lynched and flipped town, I know this is a bit far fetched, but I am just thinking scums might hit me.. or will they? I think the general consent is to lynch suki. Your case against suki in night 1 She defended herself and I defended her, but no one even care to comment on them. When I asked for one, you simply said "that has not changed my mind, sorry". Even so, I am all for lynching suki if everyone thinks she is scum. No reason to be a straw man here and cause more chaos. Given at this point of time, we can safely do a mislynch, so do lynch her to either proof her innocent, or win the game and embarrass me for my silliness. Seeing that you didn't read Cross's case against Sciberbia, I am not surprised you find my case weak. I did not include what Crossfire said because I don't want to repeat after him, but do read his case. I have an uneasy feeling when you came out with your plan. I was comfortable with my town reads: You, sciberbia, crossfire, MJ and suki. Except for the last one, I think everyone generally feels this way. However, when you mentioned about a fixed list, I keeps me thinking. What if my reads are wrong? What if the one that appeared most honest and pro-town to us turns out to be a scum? There is no 100% sure. I know, there is strong reasons for why sciberbia is not scum, but it is all based on words, and no guarantee. I do comment that if sciberbia is scum, he is seeing to win this game 15 days later. What I want to say is, yes, everyone wants to lynch scum, and the best outcome is for her to spill red, even if it makes me hit my head thinking how stupid I was, I prefer that. However, what if she don't? I suggest you all re-evaluate everyone from that point onward. I don't like sciberbia's case on miltonkram. I read it beforecrossfire's case on him, but as soon as I read his case against milton, I kept thinking that he is actually scummier. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Basically, if suki flipped green, nullify all the reads you have and do a reevaluation. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
You're right. I read through crossfire's case thinking "omg no wonder I feel sciberbia is acting weird so this is why". I will do as you suggested. @sciberbia I understand you have life responsibilities.. But it'd be a lie if I say I don't mind it. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Blue roles @Cop Out with a guilty, else don't out. @Other blue roles Jail keeper should have at least 2 innocent that is still alive. @Last Mafia Concede now Please correct me if there is anything wrong with my suggestions, if not lets get on to scum hunting I am reserving my judgement until more player shows up. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I did not go through his filter, but I think the sample size is really small, and I agree on bandwagon theory on him being an easy target to attack for a mislynch. @sciberbia I want to hear some opinions on Don't feel obligated to response to this, but this reminds me of Crossfire's case against you. I will go into your history now. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
PLEASE come online and post more. I doubt he is scum. *The way he misses his votes seem careless enough. I think killing s0Lstice is a very good choice. *The mods would have just ask for night actions in the scum quick topic if they were the ones not posting actions, assuming mods can post there Are mods able to post on mafia quick topic if they really needed to? @suki To me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early. Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1. You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story. You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like:
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's "The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive Suki, I made a case against both you and rolf based on far sketched logic and knee-jerk defense. I later defended you to death and stated there is no way Suki and Rolf can be partners. I would hate to be wrong again changing for changing my mind the third time, but I can't ignore my own reads and stays stubborn. For all fairness, here are some few points that is for suki:
However, I don't think it out weights your "scumminess", give your slip. Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia? | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Damn it. I wrote an entire post and accidently hit refresh. When I hit back my text was no longer there, but below is more or less my post: I totally missed s0Lstice's case on Unforgiven. Back off my mind he reads Unforgiven town, and if anything he probably based it after you are lynched and flipped town. If that is true, you were jumping back and forth, thus increasing my suspicion towards you, ultimately leading me to think you are actually the final mafia. Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. [green]May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context: + Show Spoiler + Mods not banning Unforgiven/MJ for missing a vote twice I am convinced by his case. However, I am weary of his NK. It seems too obvious to me and can be used easily by another scum to push the lynch on Unforgiven. However, like s0Lstice's said, "the most obvious shit is the shit".. I mean, you know what I meant. Side Note: Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? Now that I think from a townie Suki POV, it seems like you are confused because you can't even think of another scummier player than yourself. You got town read on everyone else, and everyone else is pointing their finger towards you. I seriously don't want to make another read on you anymore. I jumped 4 times, starting with linking you and rolf, then defending you because I don't see my link, and back to accusing you, and now I am- Never mind, useless information. @Unforgiven_ve Please respond to your accusations. If you are blue please claim your night actions, now. If you think you can stop the lynch without replying: ##Vote Unforgiven_ve Things I noticed:
We also cleared Unforgiven_ve based on one thing: MJ/Unforgiven was bussed by 2 scums day 1 and it is "unlikely". However, like sciberbia said, there is no "danger" of getting MJ lynched. I wrote a long case on Unforgiven, but many of the idea was gotten from reading s0Lstice and scribebria's case. I just wanted to point this out: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote: Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself! Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r? I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. While this doesn't seem important, at that time I was thinking, why was rolf being so friendly at MJ. MJ was echoing exactly what I said, and his case on me was that I echoed scibebria when I debunks suki. This may not hold merit since rolf is a scum: he could done it just to "buddy up" a townie. I see very little of Unforgiven and I want to see his responses under pressure. @If Unforgiven was not Scum I know I am drawing a lot of speculations here. But what if Unforgiven was not scum? Townie should not feel demotivated since he lurked and hardly contribute. I also think Unforgiven has a chance to flip blue, so unforgiven, if you are blue, Please out with your night actions before you are lynched My policy is to stay neutral If Unforgiven is Blue + His lurked. Fits in a blue situation + Mod not killing him for not voting - However, he is generally not helpful and never came out with a stance - His opening post randomly attacks one target Unless a blue backs him up (be careful cops, there may be 2 godfathers), or he provided a satisfying defense, I will not change- + Show Spoiler + nevermind. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
| ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
How do we lynch a dead guy  ##Vote: HeavOnEarth I agree. I thought people claiming "I am town" is weird already. Who would say they are not? I did not point it out because so many people started his/her first post by saying "Hi guys, I am town". However, claiming vanilla town is totally different. There is no reason to claim VT, unless you really like to WiFOM, which confuses fellow townies and scums alike, unless you are scum. @Correction to my previous post Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context: I reread and noticed he only used Xatalos' post as one of the argument, not entirely based on it. However, this does not change my mind on his case. If Unforgiven_ve flipped town.. I don't consider that as a possibility. We will talk about it until he did. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I see. After reading rwhat mod said I thought it was weird s0Lstice based his argument on Xatalos's post. Mod Said: I commented on some stuff in the obs qt and xatalos posted something on the line of "zel slippin information in the obs qt". Not related to anything actually happening in the thread so you can ignore that ^^ from s0Lstice's case: I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away. Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player Perhaps Xatalos gave away more than what mod and you mentioned to me, but basing on what you both said: "zelblade has been slipping information on the obs QT." More speculations and random thoughts drawn on this piece of information
Why is no one else commenting? @Unforgive_ve I am still waiting for your defence. @Golden_ve + Show Spoiler + I just noticed both your names ends with "_ve" I noticed you have not commented. You were active Day 1 and 2, why the sudden change after my case on you? Please don't be afraid to post because of that. There is only one more scum to go. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
You forgot to mention Golden. Your case @ Miltonkram also fits him. However, he acts the same in another game i checked, except for the hostile response part. @MJ/Unforgiven_ve Rereading moudly jab's first day's posts, I don't feel like he is scum. He throws a random suspicion on rolfwaffle and rolfwaffle55 was really friendly to him. It feels like he is buying townie for rolfwaffle. I am now no longer certain if Unforgiven_ve is scum. However, if no one views the same with me, then we will go ahead with the lynch. Now, assuming Unforgiven_ve flips vanilla town like he said he would, what's next? My next FoS is going to be s0Lstice. If O.Golden_ve failed to show up, I hope mods modkill him without replacement or something. I don't know. I am not gonna lie. I don't like how he lurks and I feel like if he is town he is throwing the game away for town by not contributing, so O.Golden_ve, please come back and contribute. @s0Lstice It sucks to say this, but after knowing what xatalos originally said, I feel like s0Lstice jumped too far in his analysis of Unforgiven. It seems like he is frustrated at figuring out who is scum, and as soon as he get a first vibe, he jumps on it. + Show Spoiler + Kinda like when I was in my Maths exam. When I think I figured out something, I jumped on it and don't want to care anymore. He basically based his case on 3 things, please correct me if there are more:
Why did he died
Case on unforgiven I strongly doubt unforgiven or any of his "scum mentor" would suggest to kill him. That makes his case so much more powerful, and he won't be able to retract his reads. Of course, disregard any WIFOM that may exist. If unforgiven flips green, Last scum is looking to push a mislynch on unforgiven. My next question is "who"? @Suki - Back to you, honey. It was suki who was the first to jump on Unforgiven and I immediately thought she must be the last scum. Now that I step back and think, it is an understandable reaction. Suki thinks she is going to be lynched day 3, but she couldn't figure out who is scum. She have town reads on everyone and is confused. When s0Lstice pointed out that we cleared MJ/unforgiven based on a fragile reason, and she immediately thinks to herself "that's why!" and jumps on it eagerly. The same situation can be described by a scum's point of view, but it felt like it was too obvious if anything. @sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything? The second person who jumped on the Unforgiven bandwagon was sciberbia. Crossfire built a good case on him, but why did he back down? Sciberbia plays a lot like town, and he is known to be a very good player-I assume he is good at covering his tracks. S0Lstice is known to be a good player, and he defended sciberbia. Suki has a problem with sciberbia being scum because of the insta rolf bus. However, in order for me to see sciberbia as town like s0Lstice suggested, I studied two of his game as town. This is my analysis. My analysis on sciberbia based on past games He always started out with a policy talk, blue strategy or setup strategies in general. He list down his reads systematically. He do ask for other people's opinions on his case. I also noticed, in both of his games, the ones he called out were actually mafia. I would be lying if I said I am not impressed. Overall, his plays seems similar and there is not much to suspect........+ Show Spoiler + NOT After I have a good read on his filters in other games, I came back to his filters on this game. There is no You are scum post in day 1. None. Instead, he listed down already controversial players, and comment on them honestly. When I mean honestly I mean, trying to make comments based on townie's POV Passive comments that made sense without applying pressure on anyone, which seems like a big issue in his other games. Newbie Mafia XV + Show Spoiler + sciberbia's case on Suki In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia - he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything - he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance - he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik - he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos @Town If you agree with me about suki, please say so, and indicate what in particular you find scummy. If you disagree, I'd like to hear you at least say so and give a reason why. Personally, I'm more confident about suki than anyone else so I will... ##Vote suki + Show Spoiler + Newbie Mafia XIV Sciberbia's case against Miltion ... IN SUMMARY: I think milton is scummy: - he hasn't posted a ton but enough not to be lurky - he tried to pile supsicion on me but was wishy/washy about it - he isn't sticking his neck out on anything Have we seen any post like these from sciberbia in this game? None at all in day 1, and note that these posts were made in Day 1 in both games. Also, this bothers me: + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote: alan133 There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler + suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire defensive: me no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth More of my thoughts on alan+ Show Spoiler + With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent. It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it. I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do. Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared. @MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him? What? I checked his past games, and there are moments where players who he have a town read is getting lynched. What did he do in those games? + Show Spoiler + I am running out of time and this is getting really long, so I am not posting more quotes. Ask if you need it I will post it directly quoting your request. Also, this may be over-speculation, + Show Spoiler + but sciberbia was VANILA both games. I am sure many people have caught an eye on him due to him calling out mafias in both games day 1, and I think many people wanted to see how he fair as scum/blue. Townie points for sciberbia The only scum that he directly called out was rolfwaffle in night 1. This may be the only point holding people back. I would be lying if I was not swayed by this. No reason for him to bus rolfwaffle, it will take 15 more days to win, and I think people rarely wants to sit through this 15 days. I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is. Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting? Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him. I am all for lynching Unforgiven despite what I've said. I hope unforgiven spill red, and if so I am sorry for reading this wrong, sciberbia. I am out of time, I will be back in a few hours later. Sciberbia, I reread your case on unforgiven and I thought those were solid arguments. I also noticed you were not free during day 1, so you could not come out with a solid scum read like you had in past game. Can you tell me why you changed your mind on suki? Other than you now a better lynch target. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
There is no use denying blues anymore if you are a blue. We are set to lynch you. Please out with your actions before it's too late, it will help town a lot. + Show Spoiler + Shesh. I would like a confirmation of scum reads from everyone, given that Unforgiven flips green. @sciberbia Him killing s0Lstice and changing lynch from suki to Unforgiven seems logical. Sciberbia has no scum slips, but it would be expected to avoid them judging on his accurate scum reads and strong analysis on his previous games. If he is scum, he probably made a list for "what to never ever post" @Golden Given that he did not get mod killed (He posted nothing today, and I hope he really got modkill since it is spoiling the game for town given he is town), he would be my second FoS. However, given his history (I did not check, I based it on mod's pregame comment on him), this is why he get mod killed. @Suki Suki's defense is really strong, and sciberbia mentioned it seems like suki is acting like the game will go on after she's dead. I beg to defer. It is easier to fake something like this especially when you're aware of it. + Show Spoiler + sorry suki if I am wrong @Austin's dead I would say mafia was searching for blue. Rolfwaffle was practically dead and the best scums could've hoped for is to kill the vig/or there is no vig. This will give them one extra day. I can totally see sciberbia wanting to bait and see if there are any vigilante slip by outing it. This is far sketched, but I won't be surprised if that is the case when he flip scum. Austin aren't the most active poster, giving him some "blue points". @s0Lstice's dead I think this is more of a "kill strong trusted analytic townie". This is a good scum move. I sincerely thinks this is better than "kill the confirmed vigilante that can't write english well and occasionally change his mind/counter argue himself." I don't want to out my "next expected victim if Unforgiven_ve flip town". I don't know how good my analysis is, but in case they are good, I don't want scums to get advantage from it. Please think who is scummiest. Suki, if you are town, do the town a favor and regain your confidence. Don't worry about pushing the wrong lynch. Everyone does that. When we lose we will just laugh about it and learn. Don't be afraid to make mistakes. We need your help. If suki flip scum I can see how every is going to LOL at me. may I have a vote count? What will happen if Gold fails to post and vote? | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I was talking about your first case against trackd00r @sciberbia Indeed, sharp as always. @golden please vote @crossfire please vote | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
gg Unforgiven_ve. I don't blame you since you're busy but only if you were more active.. Sigh. + Show Spoiler + I let out my frustration on sciberbia and how the town worships him as if he is God. My message was s0Lstice is a 100% confirmed townie, sciberbia is not. Trackd00r is an easy lynch. Unforgiven_ve is an easy mislynch, and I am not gonna drop my speculation about how scum killed s0lstice just to push this mislynch, although there are 10,000 other reasons for scums to kill him. I am going to look for filter one by one when I got back from work. For now, I don't like how sciberbia jumped from suki to Unforgiven_ve without reconsidering s0Lstice's case. I believe no matter how good a scum is, there must be a leak somewhere, I just had to find it. Screw circumstantial talks, screw speculations. I am sorry but I am truly frustrated at the current situation. Laters. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Please help me out by posting more reads. What is your stance on Suki's case on Miltonkram? @Suki I will analyse Miltonkram later, I just came back and I need to go out for something again. Please look more closely at sciberbia since you have made up your mind about Miltonkram. What if Miltonkram flip green? @Miltonkram Less time defending, more time analyzing. Who is your next FoS? @Sciberbia Everyone put you on the townie read. Everyone. Even if I am convinced that you are scum I believe it is hard to push a lynch to you. I am just gonna say this: I hope my brain is all fucked up and kept going after you, everyone is right and I am wrong. If I die tonight I don't see Sciberbia is ever getting lynched, on the other hand, I would think this is a wifom. I rather the wifom situation since I will still be able to do reads and influence other players. I am going to read through everyone else's filter, then yours. @Blue Action -Cops: I hate to say, but I should have recommended you to investigate lurkers. However, I'd like you to investigate Miltonkram. -Medic: Do not heal me nor Sciberbia -Jailkeeper: I would like you to jail Sciberbia. If there is no kill, then its done. If anyone suggested scums did not kill because of my suggestion: No. -Vig/Me: Only if I have another bullet | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@scberbia Sorry for the hard tunnel (if this is considered one). For the exact reason you mentioned I can't read anyone as scum. I want to think that you are scum because I believe he is good enough to hide this well. @Blues Jail keeper-please out the guys you kept. They are innocent Cop-I hope you can save us from day 3. Even you didnt nail scum you should have some few innos @Golden He turned out just to vote He did not defend himself his hostile reply to my case i don't know. I hate to know we spent 3 days and overlook one scum like this. He did not bother to defend himself everytime I mentioned him. I cleared him by my self arguing. Please look at him more closely. Sorry for the late late post, | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
-Feel anxious even when town is in a good lead. If we can overlook MJ for bandwagonning, why not Gold. -Gold, since you seems disinterested, do you want to concede as scum? | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Don't worry, not gonna disappear anytime soon  @All GG all, was fun while it lasted, off to the obs to see if they are raging at me right now :p Good luck town! Its up to you all now. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On June 27 2012 09:40 EchelonTee wrote: wat That's crazy, 2 mafia dead N1 yet town can't win? >< that's the worst feeling... Indeed, especially after trackd00r flips veteran in Day 2 lynch.. Is it me or everyone's last reads were mislynch? xD | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I meant the players who post a last case in the game xD Austin - ??? s0Lstice - Unforgiven_ve alan133 - Golden_ve sciberbia - suki | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I feel like if trackd00r and Golden did not ditch us with "omg u suspect me I keep quiet and make u cry" we would have won this much easily. Is this common in TL Mafia games? :/ | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Town was at a very good advantage in day 2 and I was confirmed blue, I feel like I took whatever advantage that we had for granted and started producing noises and sloppy reads. Additionally the pressured applied by rolf and suki in day 1 contributes to my "super paranoia detective" mode and causing me to throw suspicion on people by making very bias reads. (the opposite of being "neutral", which I am accused of.) Reading HeavonEarth correctly also contributed to my ego and hence playing more carelessly. I feel like I am partially to blame for the lost. I didn't even put Milton out in any of my reads. Always shoot scum I debated myself if I should keep rolfwaffle alive so he can slip the 3rd scum, but I think killing him in night 1 is certainly the correct call. There is no guarantee he would slip; he may produce more noise if anything, and we spend one whole day cycle just to lynch a target that everyone agrees. Miltonkram To be totally honest, you were one of the person that I have no reads throughout the game prior to my death (even after death). You never appear especially townie nor scummy, and there is always someone scummier than you out there. I always ran out of time when I do my reads, and I always pick yours to skip. I don't blame Crossfire for lynching Suki over you, since I would do the same. I read your thoughts on the game in the scum QT, and I think your sciberbia's kill is excellent, seeing what he wrote in his last post, looks like you nailed it perfectly. [/list] Things I learnt
I can see why townies are depressed. Hell, I would be lying if I say was not. Unforgiven's analysis really nailed what I feel about myself looking back at the game. Trying to play super detective or lead the town when I don't know how, and throws out cases that I aren't even sure myself and pretended that I was- Suki and Sciberbia's was "desperation" case because I thought scums is smart enough to hide in my "townie read" group. In reality, last scum is in my "not sure about alignment" zone all the time, yet I did not pay attention to them. GG, I hope there's another game I can play. The next two newbie game is already full, I hope there is a new one soon. | ||
|
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Why I wrongly accused Sciberbia I don't know what motivates you to look at sciberbia, but when I started looking hard at sciberbia I thought everyone in the game looks green to me. I ignored Golden's non-existing defense against my case and his non-existing contribution ever since, and I ignored my Miltonkram's "not-sure-what-side-he-is" read. I thought scums must be good and it motivates me to re-read everyone's filter and I started with the player that I think is the best: sciberbia. Over-confidence Cases I think over-confident cases aren't bad. If you want to build a case against someone, go all out and assume your target really is mafia, if you are wrong, all you need to do is to say sorry. Of course, that does not mean that you should shut down whatever defense posted by your target. The reason why you want to build a case is to force a response, not only from the target, but from other people. It is by no means "you are mafia ##votes you kthxbye". (Sorry sciberbia) but I really dislike one thing he said once or twice in the game. + Show Spoiler + I couldn't find it yet, sciberbia's filter is 6 pages long lol. I will edit this if anyone wants me to quote it. It goes something like- "I know there is always possible town-sided explanation for the points I brought up against you, so I am going to ignore your defenses" That's one of the reason why I suspected sciberbia. I think instead of just focusing on the content itself, we should look at the tone of the defense, did the person make silly excuses, look for any slip etc. Did anybody else made slips. Building cases at night I don't know, but I feel like building case at night is bad, especially scums can use it as a wifom by killing you off. s0Lstice got killed right after he posted a case on unforgiven. We could have interpreted it wrongly, and he won't be here to "change his mind." Also, by leaving behind a case like this, I honestly thinks it carries more weight than it deserved. In the day where Unforgiven was lynched, I changed my mind from thinking he is scum because s0Lstice mentioned a "leak", until I learn that the "leak" was far sketched. I even feel uncertain about the lynch later when I reread MJ's posts, but I went ahead with the lynch without trying to fight it off because:
I think it also works the other way round. What if you were right but you did not post and got killed off? I think unless you got a solid read or a irrefutable scum slip, not speculations (host slipped, host did not modkill etc etc), I think it is better to post your reads on multiple players, instead of one big case where no one can challenge it when you die. Correctly Get Milton I think Milton played really well. While he is not the most townie looking guy, he is also not the scummiest, and I kept re-reading filters from players that are from both extremes. There is also a bonus: no one will be suspicious of him not dying. There are no obvious slips and I think everyone agrees with me that scanning through the filter, he looks townie. I think the only way to "catch" him is that the fact he doesn't even flinch when we get closer and closer to LYLO, his tone remains the same, if not, it feels like he is getting more confident mislynch after mislynch. He also show no resentment for pushing for the wrong mislynches, but he didn't really do much to get the lynch going, really. Summary Overall, I think suicidal blue, "screw you for reading me scum" townie, Unforgiven's non-commitment first few days due to RL constraints and townie tearing themselves up nullify any advantage we had in day 1. I also noticed scums wins the majority of the newbie games, I wonder if it is the same for normal games? + Show Spoiler + <joke>Mafia is imba, nerve Mafia plx</joke> | ||
| ||
