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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
So here's what I understand of how Snarfs plays as town judging by his play in Wiggles MMII (link) as a Doctor.
Snarfs is unafraid to move his vote around several times in the same day. He calls out cases that he thinks are bad (link) and will vote people for scummy play and move his vote around at the deadline (link)
When he writes cases, they are typically big and monstrous quote-beasts (link). We can see from DF2 that he does his homework and tries to read people's meta as well (link).
This is how Snarfs defends his case and increases the pressure on paperscraps in Wiggles MMII: (link).
What we see is a player who regularly does a lot of research and writes long, complex posts. He's not abrasive, but he's not afraid to get into a logical discussion with someone as a town player. He doesn't post a huge amount, and a fair number of his posts are one-liners, but his cases and his votes are typically connected to a lot of analysis.
Let's examine Snarfs' play in this game:
He opens up by pressuring multiple players (link) and eventually voting me early in D1 (link) in a fashion that is typical of snarfs opening play as townie. He pushes me more aggressively here in a post directed at 2 people, as he did in Wiggles MMII (link). He does change his vote later in the day, but this could be because of his previous pandain experience. He votes for Hyaach for weird reasons, but this also falls in line with his late-day vote switch shenanigans. (link)
Where I see Snarfs going "off the rails" a little is that he doesn't interact with Hyaach with the same sort of large posts we see out of him usually (interacting with Hyaach) but he has pushed some players with short posts before (BL in DF2). The big thing that strikes me as odd is his strident defense of me in the face of all opposition. But if we examine his play overall, we see 2 common themes: one, he flip flops a lot and is willing to post and vote based on relatively weak reads, and two, he will occasionally do a good deal of work to support an existing read of his.
Although I haven't Snarfs do a hard defense of someone before, given sureness about me, it fits within his meta of flip flopping on some things but sticking to his guns on things he's sure on. I'm not willing to lynch him any more.
##unvote
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Oh I get it nobody wants to unvote me cause they can't find someone scummier. Time to make a case. And eat lunch. Bbl.
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lol Blazinghand
gg scum, see you later.
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I think your defense of Snarfs is good. Thanks for that.
##Unvote
##Vote Blazinghand
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I mostly believe BH's claim, that said I don't have a target that I would rather switch to, I don't like the lesser but still existing possibility that he's using this as mafia as a last ditch attempt to avoid the lynch, and frankly I don't really care. He's likely SK and no matter how much he sounds like he's trying to play pro-town his wincon is still just as much against us as it is against mafia, he will attempt to screw us in the end and he's a good player, I don't want to give him that chance. I am not going to be the stupid townie that thought we could control or contain him. He clearly will have a plan to win himself and I'm not gonna wait until we have to choose between letting him get the win or mafia.
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BH's SK claim makes sense, and I think we need him to help us win. With the unanimous vote on him, I don't think it is likely that he is a fake-claiming mafia either. I'd rather lynch someone else. I think Navillus or zelblade both make for fine lynch targets.
##Unvote
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EBWOP: Navillus and zelblade.
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Shraft: Given how dire the situation for BH looked, it's very possible that his scumteam is bussing him for some town cred. Also, at worst, he's an SK. Regardless, he's anti town. You're going to have to make a very strong case on someone to change my mind.
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@shraft: Which one would you rather lynch and why?
@Artanis: Let me take a look at Snarfs and get back to you.
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@artanis: I'm not seeing Snarfs as scum at the moment. At worst, he's a null, and I have people I'd much rather lynch than him. Zelblade pops to mind.
One thing that I did note: At the beginning of the game, he requested links to previous games from a few players, and noted that he was going to read up on me as well. He hasn't referenced any previous games in any of his analysis so far. It doesn't look like he did that in Wiggles MMIIIWiggles MMIII either, so I'm not sure what to make of that quite yet.
I'll spend some more time thinking about it in the next few days. Lynching BH should give us plenty of time to figure this out.
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On June 12 2012 08:22 ghost_403 wrote:
@shraft: Which one would you rather lynch and why?
I'm not sure, but I'm quite fine with any of them.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On June 12 2012 05:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I think your defense of Snarfs is good. Thanks for that.
##Unvote
##Vote Blazinghand
A regrettable, but understandable vote. I'm kinda dissapointed since I know there are 6 town players who aren't helping discuss anything but whether or not I am the SK.
Let me lay it out for you guys-- how a claimed SK can win, and why this means helping town. This is the only win plan that can possibly work for a claimed SK, and you don't need to "control" me to do it:
+ Show Spoiler +
Currently, We are at D3, 6-3-1.
If we lynch me:
N3: 6-3
D4: 5-3 LYLO with 3 scum -- very, very difficult. Even with good lynches, you'll have a D5 LYLO with 2 scum and a D6 LYLO with 1 scum, both of which will be hellish.
If we lynch mafia instead:
N3: 6-2-1
Now good things can happen-- Mafia and I will both try to shoot town, but I might hit Mafia and maybe Mafia wants to shoot me, both of which help town. Even if the worst thing happens and we both shoot town:
D4: 4-2-1 LYLO with 2 Mafia!
Here we need to lynch scum again. IF we do so, then at the start of N4:
N4 4-1-1
Here's where things get interesting, I think. Scum will want to shoot town and so will I, but if I hit scum, town wins. That's a 20% chance right there (since the 3rd and final scum will be the one who is best-hidden, we're assuming random shots).
BUT EVEN IF I SHOOT TOWN AGAIN (which I'm trying to do), town can STILL WIN.
D5: 2-1-1
This is a special scenario. It looks like game over, right? WRONG. See, at 2-1-1, you want to lynch a townie. If you lynch me, scum shoots a townie and wins. If you lynch scum, I shoot a townie and win. If you lynch a townie, N5 is 1-1-1 and scum has to shoot me, and I'll shoot and whoever I don't shoot wins (and I won't know which faction will win, either!). So N5 is a 50-50 win-chance between town and scum!
What this means is during a 2-1-1 D5, town wants to lynch town, and I want to lynch scum. Honestly, scum wants to lynch me, but has to pretend to want to lynch town. So we try to lynch the towniest player on D5, doing our best not to lynch scum. From our current gamestate, this is the only way I can win-- by getting it to 2-1-1, and lynching the scum player. There are numerous paths to the 2-1-1 where town can win, and even when we get there, there's a 2/3rds chance we lynch a townie, which gives town an additional 50% chance to win.
"Now, wait, Blazinghand, what if we lynch town today? Won't we be boned?"
Well, not quite. If you lynch town, I'll do my best to shoot scum overnight, since I don't want scum to win any more than I want you to win. If I shoot scum, we're back to the normal deal with the 50% winrate N5 and the various ways for you to win including me shooting another scum, or scum deciding to shoot me because I'm too sexy dangerous.
And if I shoot town overnight? Well, then it's over. But after you lynch me, it'd be over after one mislynch anyways. Think about it-- I'll give you a second bite at the apple.
I don't want Town to win. But now that I've claimed? My only POSSIBLE route to victory gives you a strong chance to win, a much stronger chance to win than it gives scum.
You see, currently after you lynch me there are 3 LYLOs in a row. I shot VE for another reason, besides him attacking me in a smart way and the fact that he might be scum, and it's the same reason scum did: VE could possibly lead this town through multiple LYLOs if not shot. Without the JK saving him, scum took their chance to shoot him. He's a strong player.
We don't have VE now. All we have is us.
So, to summarize: Lynch me, and you have 3 terrible days of LYLO. You and I both know how TL towns do at LYLO 3 times in a row: not well. Lynch scum, and I have multiple chances to accidentally shoot scum, making things super easy for you guys, or even if I don't shoot scum by accident, you get a 50% chance of winning during N5! You only have to lynch scum at ONE LYLO in order to get this high chance of winning, compounded on all my accidentally shooting scum possibilities. In fact, there's a good chance scum will try to shoot me a second time sometime during this, leaving you with an extra lynch in the pocket!
I don't WANT to help town, it's the only way I can win. Don't waste your only mislynch on me. Let's lynch scum. I'll try to shoot to keep us at LYLO, but I CAN'T let Mafia win. My goal is to make it to a day where it's 2-1-1, but frankly there's a good chance I'll get shot or shoot scum, and even if we make it there, there's still a chance a townie gets lynched and I'm stuck in a kingmaker scenario where I don't know who's who! 50% town victory!
The odds are better if you let me live. Let's lynch scum, guys. It'll lower the scum win chance, and increase the town win chance, and yes, my win chance-- but it'll still help you. I claimed because I know as well as you do that I'm forced to try to help the town. If we mislynch and are dealing with MYLO tomorrow, I *will* try to shoot scum tonight. I will give us an extra bite at the apple! You know it!
So now that you're convinced it's better to lynch Mafia than me, let me present to you the player who I think is Mafia. This case will be so convincing you'll realize it's better to lynch him than me. It'll give you something to unvote me for. I'm doing this for my own good, but it will incidentally help you.
Let me help you.
Let me lynch Zelblade.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
I'm here to talk about Zelblade. He's scum.
My argument against him is mostly going to be analysis, but I'll talk about his meta as well. The two sources I'm using for his meta are LI, in which he was scum (link) and MTG Mini, in which he was town (link) to get a better understanding of how he plays.
1) Zelblade played D1 start to his scum meta.
To get an idea of how Zelblade starts his scum games off, in LI he opened up with a bunch of questions and soft-defenses of town players (link)(link 2). This basically lets him make some minor contributions until he can find a safe wagon to hop on (link) but only after someone else, a townie, has made a case against that guy (link). He's not afraid to break ground with his vote, but he doesn't make any new cases. I'm not gonna talk about his D2 play from LI, because of the notorious 2-way bus that game-- our D2 was the opposite situation, where two players that weren't in his Scum QT where attacking each other.
In his town play, Zelblade is different. As he goes into MTG, Zelblade is lurking but comes out swinging with a case against VE AND a case against NT (link). Also, as an aside, he seems utterly unafraid to lurk. He's apologetic about it, but he goes long periods of times, sometimes days, posting like once or twice in a 24 hour span with meh posts. He's admittedly a low-post-count player, but he doesn't put a lot of effort into "appearing" town when he's town. He'll disappear 20 hours, make a one-line post (link), then disappear for another 20 hours without contributing. When he comes back, he comes back with a read and a vote (link).
So how does Zelblade play here? Well, he starts off asking weird questions (link) and making a soft defense based on setup that was inherently reasonable (link). Typical Scum Zelblade. And as soon as the heat picks up on Pandain, he hops right on board. To really contextualize his Pandain vote, let's check out how he responds to claims.
2. Zelblade voted Pandain like he does in scum meta.
As town he distrusts weird claims: (link), especially ones without check crumbs (link) to back them up, and immediately calls out Zealos for a bad claim. Sounds like that informed his Pandain reaction, but when we see HOW he went about it, it's a lot more like his scum play than his town play.
His reactions to Pandain's claim and Pandain's play D1 match his D1 scum play in LI almost perfectly. He calls out Pandain for diverting the discussion WHILE hiding behind other player's arguments (link):
On June 06 2012 22:21 zelblade wrote:
Either way I would be perfectly fine with a Pandain lynch. The blueslip feels exteremely fake to me. Slipping like that is akin to making a major scumslip... and one is more likely than not going to be more careful about leaking their role no? As pointed out, the random vig claim as well as the random mason discussion managed to severly derail the thread which reeks of scum. A couple more points is that he tries to dump suspision on me through a vauge statement.
JUST as he did in LI with his case and vote against Tunkeg AFTER ET made the initial case against Tunkeg (link)
On April 09 2012 21:54 zelblade wrote:
Giving my thoughts on the lynch candidates proposed so far.
My preferred lynch for today would actually be Tunkeg. He first starts off the day with his "random lynch", as well as a spreadsheet detailing the "scores" of everyone, and by extension, how "good" they supposedly are. Although he claims that his aim with this was to generate discussion, the content of the generated discussion, in my opinion, does not help town at all. Looking at the next couple of pages after his post, one will notice that what this has mostly done is do an excellent job of distracting town, instead getting most players to comment on how wrong his list is and agure what exactly a W/L ratio is. I personally dont feel that his list has managed to do anything in terms of scumhuting, and has actually distracted us from doing so.
//snip//
As such, this is why I believe that Tunkeg is scum. He has managed to waste a boatload of town's time discussing the vitrues of his so-called random lynch and why Jackal is bad, and his sput defense just doesnt click well with me.
This is how Zelblade operates as scum: he finds a townie who's already been pushed, usually for saying something irrelevant, but also talks about the D1 candidate "wasting town's time" or "diverting discussion" in addition to reciting main components of the case the others have.
Contrast his town play in MTG when he votes to lynch MJ (link), in which he shoots down other cases and notably does not need to justify his case with talk about sidetracking the town, even though MJ WAS full of weird statements about consolidating evidence, jumping to conclusions, and odd vote justifications and non-justifications. He voted who he wanted lynched without fear and without worrying about repercussions.
On May 23 2012 00:00 zelblade wrote:
Apparently I screwed up that quote tag -_-
Eh I just realised its pluarity lynch lol. I am considering if I should dump my vote on zealos and see if it gains any traction or onto one of the three leading candidates. Kind of a hard decision since I wouldnt mind all of them dying.
Mattchew is still being a pain in the ass, though his posts are starting to get understandable, and he actually has more content than say, mouldy jeb. Probably not the best lynch today, think hes town.
I still think nova is scummy. But mouldy more so. Agree with marv's case generally.
##vote: Mouldy Jeb
Also I am going to sleep soon (school) so I probably cant change my vote (deadline sucks for me as usual -_-).
He talks about other players being scummy, but says this target is the most scummy. He does not waffle and waver. He doesn't justify his vote or ameliorate the hard edges his case with lip-flapping.
His D1 vote on Pandain looks JUST LIKE his D1 LI vote, and nothing like his voting and case-making when he's scum. This is Zelblade trying to deflect attention and make up easy reasons to vote easy targets, just like when he was scum in LI.
Section 3: Zelblades Reaction to Hyaach v BH is scummy regardless of Meta
Zalblade's D2 vote on me (link) and his D1 vote on Pandain, coupled with the accompanying cases, look exactly like his scum voting, and nothing like his town voting. In fact, he spent so much time talking about how much he was "bugged" that scum would make my roleclaim and how Hyaach, who had to be town if I was scum, gave him "scummy vibes" that I thought he was voting to lynch Hyaach, not me.
On June 10 2012 02:28 zelblade wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Well since no roleblocker is claiming and i cannot be around during the deadline I will be making my decision now. At the start of the day I believed that bh wasnt lying. Well until ghost brought up the meta changes that is. I can understand him wanting to change his playstyle.... But i think that he would have said something like "I'm going to try to be less agressive" pretend if that was the case no? A minor point of course. I am unsure about his reaction regarding pandain's claim. I definitely think him playing it off was possible, but I found this post wierd. On June 06 2012 11:18 Blazinghand wrote:
dude you are aware there are like RBs and shit in this game Note the this is an instant reaction. Let's say someone claims a role that you have and it is exteremly unlikely there are two of the same role. Wouldt you stop for a little while and give it some thought about how you are going to react to what is very possibly a fakeclaim? I don't see why he would post this. By the way, this is before where bh claims he realized he slipped so.... It's not a cover up. What is really bugging me is this - why in the world would a scum bh claim vig? It makes no sense. He didn't know he was getting roleblocked, and doing so would force a 1-1 trade with hyaach at best. Onto hyaach, he has given me scum vibes at the start of the game. Not going to elaborate but his general posting and luckiness made me feel off about him. Claiming rb as scum makes sense, I already explained why somewhere in my filter, so this is a null tell. His jailkeeper claim is sketchy too. Exteremly convenient. The lack of a town rb claiming (not exsisting or simply not willing to claim?) weakens it quite a bit. I can see ehat he means when he says that he shot down every jk scinerio though. It's definitely possible that was faked. However, I'm actually inclined to believe this claim since my gut says so. His recent posting seem to have a fearless aura which makes me feel that he's town. I'm going to just go with bh I guess. ##unvote##vote: blazinghand
Look a tthis post and this vote. This isn't what a town player would do. If you were unsure, you would cast a vote for BH and say "yeah he looks scummier" and yeah, if you're gonna be afk for the rest of the day, you lay out your thoughts. But read this post and ask yourself-- is this how a town player writes a case, or how a scum player tries to duck responsibility and come out looking townie at the same time?
In fact, this is not how Zelblade ends any of his vote posts as town-- he never feels the need to justify himself or fill himself full of doubts like this. He probably anticipated me not flipping Mafia and didn't want to look too bad on the wagon. Typical scum play.
This doesn't look at all like MtG Zelblade.
This looks like LI Zelblade.
This looks like scum. Let's vote him, and not waste a lynch on the SK who wants to help town.
##vote: Zelblade
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I've got an idea.
We lynch Zelblade today.
Then get BH to shoot himself tonight.
Yeah, that'll work. This is a good plan.
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WAIT!
BH is bulletproof.
New plan. Let's lynch BH, then zelblade.
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I have a better idea, we kill BH.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:02 ghost_403 wrote:
I've got an idea.
We lynch Zelblade today.
Then get BH to shoot himself tonight.
Yeah, that'll work. This is a good plan.
Man, read my post above my zelblade case. The only way for me, a claimed SK, to win, gives town a higher chance to win than (IMO) 3 consecutive days of LYLO.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:03 ghost_403 wrote:
WAIT!
BH is bulletproof.
New plan. Let's lynch BH, then zelblade.
I have an extra night life, a single one, and scum shot me N1, so they could easily shoot me tonight and kill me. I don't see how that's relevant though.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:03 MrZentor wrote:
I have a better idea, we kill BH.
Really? You want 3 days of LYLO rather than a real chance at winning?
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In order for not lynching you to be good, we would need to lynch scum today and have you shoot scum tonight. You've only given us one scum. Not lynching you still isn't a good trade for town.
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EPT
