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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:05 ghost_403 wrote:
In order for not lynching you to be good, we would need to lynch scum today and have you shoot scum tonight. You've only given us one scum. Not lynching you still isn't a good trade for town.
READ MY FIRST POST. Even if we lynch scum today and I shoot town tonight (and I might accidentally shoot scum!), town has a higher win rate.
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Yeah, no.
If we lynch BH, we lynch someone that admitted to being anti-town.
If we lynch zelblade, we lynch someone who we think is anti-town.
I have no idea why any townie would chose the first option over the second.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:07 ghost_403 wrote:
Yeah, no.
If we lynch BH, we lynch someone that admitted to being anti-town.
If we lynch zelblade, we lynch someone who we think is anti-town.
I have no idea why any townie would chose the first option over the second.
BECAUSE IT HELPS YOU. Because after you lynch me, tomorrow, you're gonna be at 5-3, and will have to survive 3 days of LYLO. You know your odds are slim. Take a look at my plan! It makes the town odds better. It makes mafia odds WAY WORSE. Yes, it admittedly gives me a chance to win-- that's why it's my plan-- but I'm only pitching it because it holds up to scrutiny. READ IT.
Scum don't like my plan cause it makes it very hard for them to win. They may even have to waste another bullet on me!
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This is all assuming you ARE sk.
Which you aren't.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:14 MrZentor wrote:
This is all assuming you ARE sk.
Which you aren't.
But I am! Do you really think that scum could pull off an N1 NK? What was my plan for the N1 NK when there was only going to be one kill?
Here's an infographic for those of you who don't get the ramifications of my plan:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jGxGV.png)
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Like I think we all know that a vigi fakeclaim isn't really doable as scum in this setup, but is TOTALLY PLAUSIBLE as SK. Like, the reason I figured Pandain wasn't a vigi was that it wouldn't make sense for there to be an SK AND a Vigi (since, given the role choice WBG presented me, to appear town to claims or to have an extra night life, I assumed we had a cop).
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Something I'm still waiting for an answer on.
On June 12 2012 02:14 ghost_403 wrote:
And what if you're not the SK? What happens then?
You forget, the only thing that we have to prove that you actually are the SK is your claim. There has only been one night kill the entire game so far, so we can't even be certain that there is even an SK in the game.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:17 ghost_403 wrote:Something I'm still waiting for an answer on. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 02:14 ghost_403 wrote:
And what if you're not the SK? What happens then? You forget, the only thing that we have to prove that you actually are the SK is your claim. There has only been one night kill the entire game so far, so we can't even be certain that there is even an SK in the game.
So your story is "oh, BH isn't the SK. He was scum trying to fakeclaim as vigi, and he'd totally have some way to justify the single NK N1 as a vigi"
cause that's a bad story.
Look, that aside, check out my zelblade case. Good case, yes?
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It's not nearly as conclusive as
On June 12 2012 01:55 Blazinghand wrote:Ok guys, fine. You caught me. I fucked up and you caught me. I am the Serial Killer.+ Show Spoiler + N1 I fired at Furerkip, and was RBed. N2 I fired at VE. I did so because given a town JK and a town RB, it was weird that we'd have a miller. The Mafia haven't killed anyone yet this game. Don't lynch me YET, town. I CAN HELP YOU. I have infinite bullets. I don't know if I still have my night life, but I can at least try to kill a scum tonight, and maybe they won't shoot me anyways because you'll have to lynch me eventually. I know as an SK it's terrible to claim, but if I die today I definitely can't win. Let me help you. I even fuckign crumbed my goddamn SK role cause I thought it might come down to this. I was super sure Mafia RBed me AND shot me N1, too! On June 09 2012 16:32 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 16:24 Hyaach wrote:Read the quote again its not just about his meta. Its about him failing to pressure Pandain after the fake claim and going up with MrZ Why bother to argue about game mechanics and balance like Mason claiming On June 06 2012 11:54 Blazinghand wrote:On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
1. Blue roles will have more information in executing their actions. There will be 2 less chances for each blue role to waste a check/shot/roleblock on a townie. Times that by the amount of power roles we have and that is a significant deal. We won't be able to do that if they claim at the very end of N1.
We don't have a vigi AND masons AND an additional blue role and you know it.On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
2. We have more information. This is good, not just becuase we won't lynch the masons, but for all the information that springs out of confirmed townies. Your right, BH, confirmed townies aren't 100% right. But the fact is that they aren't scum, and that lets us make sure town runs the scene, not scum. I'd rather have an idiot town help guide town than any scum.
Given that the lynch seems to have consolidated onto me (or navi), I'd be very, very surprised if a mason somehow revealing themselves would change things today, unless Navi or me are masons, in which case my idea of "don't claim D1 unless you're gonna get lynched" applies quite well.On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
Masons getting shot = more blue roles able to do stuff.
Blues(if even that) getting shot = we still have confirmed townie.
Right... but one of these two things is gonna happen ANYWAYS. all that claiming NOW does is let scum choose which one. Claiming now is terrible. On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
Basically we'll have more information, and now. We already (are pretty sure) that VE is a miller, I'm a vig, if we have tow additional masons that = 4/12 people already accounted for! Then factor in individual analysis and guesswork! That's a HUGE deal in lynch one! 1) Whether or not VE is scummy is a function of his play, not his claim. 2) We don't know you're a vigi at the moment, as you yourself have said. 3) all of this works just as well with masons claiming N1 unless a mason is gonna get lynched, in which case they shoudl claim. MASONS: don't listen to pandain. Don't claim D1 unless you're gonna get lynched. and what does the bold post shows again? His saving crumbs for a possible fake mason claim as well? Oh, of course, IT TOTALLY MAKES SENSE FOR SCUM TO FAKE A MASON CLAIM. Yeah. Clearly. That doesn't even look like a crumb for a mason claim. What the dicks are you talking about? Like, I don't even know how to argue with this. It's like I'm arguing that a certain belief is epistemologically sound and my opponent is just shouting "grail" at the top of his lungs with no context or explanation as though that's an argument. My crumb is Grail, an out of place word that is a holy vessel-- and Vessels are the signature unit of SK terran. SK = Serial Killer. Yes, I'm not town-aligned. But don't kill me today. Let me help you. My only crumb for the VE kill was that he was the first guy I mentioned in my just-before-day post. I wanted it to be obtuse because I was hoping the town RB would claim and save me, but he's either an ass or he realized i'm the SK.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:21 ghost_403 wrote:It's not nearly as conclusive as Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 01:55 Blazinghand wrote:Ok guys, fine. You caught me. I fucked up and you caught me. I am the Serial Killer.+ Show Spoiler + N1 I fired at Furerkip, and was RBed. N2 I fired at VE. I did so because given a town JK and a town RB, it was weird that we'd have a miller. The Mafia haven't killed anyone yet this game. Don't lynch me YET, town. I CAN HELP YOU. I have infinite bullets. I don't know if I still have my night life, but I can at least try to kill a scum tonight, and maybe they won't shoot me anyways because you'll have to lynch me eventually. I know as an SK it's terrible to claim, but if I die today I definitely can't win. Let me help you. I even fuckign crumbed my goddamn SK role cause I thought it might come down to this. I was super sure Mafia RBed me AND shot me N1, too! On June 09 2012 16:32 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 16:24 Hyaach wrote:Read the quote again its not just about his meta. Its about him failing to pressure Pandain after the fake claim and going up with MrZ Why bother to argue about game mechanics and balance like Mason claiming On June 06 2012 11:54 Blazinghand wrote:On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
1. Blue roles will have more information in executing their actions. There will be 2 less chances for each blue role to waste a check/shot/roleblock on a townie. Times that by the amount of power roles we have and that is a significant deal. We won't be able to do that if they claim at the very end of N1.
We don't have a vigi AND masons AND an additional blue role and you know it.On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
2. We have more information. This is good, not just becuase we won't lynch the masons, but for all the information that springs out of confirmed townies. Your right, BH, confirmed townies aren't 100% right. But the fact is that they aren't scum, and that lets us make sure town runs the scene, not scum. I'd rather have an idiot town help guide town than any scum.
Given that the lynch seems to have consolidated onto me (or navi), I'd be very, very surprised if a mason somehow revealing themselves would change things today, unless Navi or me are masons, in which case my idea of "don't claim D1 unless you're gonna get lynched" applies quite well.On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
Masons getting shot = more blue roles able to do stuff.
Blues(if even that) getting shot = we still have confirmed townie.
Right... but one of these two things is gonna happen ANYWAYS. all that claiming NOW does is let scum choose which one. Claiming now is terrible. On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
Basically we'll have more information, and now. We already (are pretty sure) that VE is a miller, I'm a vig, if we have tow additional masons that = 4/12 people already accounted for! Then factor in individual analysis and guesswork! That's a HUGE deal in lynch one! 1) Whether or not VE is scummy is a function of his play, not his claim. 2) We don't know you're a vigi at the moment, as you yourself have said. 3) all of this works just as well with masons claiming N1 unless a mason is gonna get lynched, in which case they shoudl claim. MASONS: don't listen to pandain. Don't claim D1 unless you're gonna get lynched. and what does the bold post shows again? His saving crumbs for a possible fake mason claim as well? Oh, of course, IT TOTALLY MAKES SENSE FOR SCUM TO FAKE A MASON CLAIM. Yeah. Clearly. That doesn't even look like a crumb for a mason claim. What the dicks are you talking about? Like, I don't even know how to argue with this. It's like I'm arguing that a certain belief is epistemologically sound and my opponent is just shouting "grail" at the top of his lungs with no context or explanation as though that's an argument. My crumb is Grail, an out of place word that is a holy vessel-- and Vessels are the signature unit of SK terran. SK = Serial Killer. Yes, I'm not town-aligned. But don't kill me today. Let me help you. My only crumb for the VE kill was that he was the first guy I mentioned in my just-before-day post. I wanted it to be obtuse because I was hoping the town RB would claim and save me, but he's either an ass or he realized i'm the SK.
Really? No other comments?
Like, ok, at the VERY LEAST, let's assume I'm an SK trying to help town lynch scum, and let's try to talk about Zelblade. As a town player, you must assume I'm trying to lynch scum today (since if we lynch town I MUST hit scum overnight or lose). That way, after I flip SK, you at least have some discussion on something other than "BH is SK"
I suggest this for two reasons. 1) it might get people to take me seriously and 2) IF YOU'RE TOWN, COME ON, ACT IN YOUR INTERESTS.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Here's what town is thinking right now:
"Wow blazinghand is either really desperate SK, or maybe a really desperate scum who was really really stupid N1. I may want to lynch him just cause he's the SK and may be Mafia, but I'm gonna read his case on Zelblade anyways cause it might be reasonable, and we need something to discuss anyways."
Here's what scum is thinking now:
"BH is a threat, and I want to make sure there's no discussion D3 that could endangerous our impending victory. Better NOT discuss anything important here, just talk randomly about BH. Discussion bad. sheeping good."
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Here's what I'm thinking right now:
"Wow, blazinghand is really scummy, self admittedly antitown, and has made a quarter of the posts in the entire thread."
Stop spamming.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:31 ghost_403 wrote:
Here's what I'm thinking right now:
"Wow, blazinghand is really scummy, self admittedly antitown, and has made a quarter of the posts in the entire thread."
Stop spamming.
If you think there's any chance I'm an SK, you will take a look at the case I wrote about zelblade and you will respond. If you're town and not scum, you're not afraid of WRITING OUT YOUR OPINION BEFORE I FLIP.
You know this to be true.
Quit dodging.
Help town.
Discuss.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Every town player should take note at who wants to only discuss my (basically unavoidable) lynch, and who wants to actually discuss other things. What makes sense to you, town players? What seems like something scum would do where they want to just point back on it and said "Look, i helped lynch an SK!" while at the same time shutting down important discussion time leading into 3x LYLO?
What makes sense as town?
Accusing me of spam and ignoring the case I've made entirely, shutting down discussion?
Or reading and responding to my post talking about my motivations (link) and my case against zelblade (link)?
Keep track of who does what for when I flip.
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BH as I understand your argument a fairly large part of it relies on you missing town WHEN YOU'RE SHOOTING FOR TOWN. I'm sorry but you don't suck that much, this is convincing and all but you had to admit that at many of these points you are trying to screw town and we basically need you to screw up to not lose, as I said earlier I am not relying on you not screwing us intentionally or by accident.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:52 Navillus wrote:
BH as I understand your argument a fairly large part of it relies on you missing town WHEN YOU'RE SHOOTING FOR TOWN. I'm sorry but you don't suck that much, this is convincing and all but you had to admit that at many of these points you are trying to screw town and we basically need you to screw up to not lose, as I said earlier I am not relying on you not screwing us intentionally or by accident.
Ok, that's a fair point. But let's say I do everything perfectly and hit town!
There's still the chance mafia will shoot me, thinking they'll fare better in 3-1 than in 2-1-1.
Then, even if we get to 2-1-1, all we have to do is lynch a townie and town gets a 50% winrate due to kingmaker scenario! It's no problem.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 12 2012 10:52 Navillus wrote:
BH as I understand your argument a fairly large part of it relies on you missing town WHEN YOU'RE SHOOTING FOR TOWN. I'm sorry but you don't suck that much, this is convincing and all but you had to admit that at many of these points you are trying to screw town and we basically need you to screw up to not lose, as I said earlier I am not relying on you not screwing us intentionally or by accident.
And believe me, if Town had a good chance of winning at this point I'd be screwing you guys and not scum. I'd LOVE to screw you guys, but you don't have much win% for me to TAKE from you at this point. I *have* to screw scum.
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Day 3 Vote Count
Palmar (0)
Blazinghand
Blazinghand (8)
Katina
ghost_403
Navillus
zelblade
MrZentor
Shraft
Palmar
Snarfs
Artanis[Xp]
Snarfs (0)
Artanis[Xp]
Blazinghand
zelblade (2)
Blazinghand
Shraft
Blazinghand is currently set to be lynched. The day ends in 4.5 hours at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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EPT
