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Emergency Mini Mafia! - Page 4

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Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 14 2012 18:40 GMT
#893
On June 14 2012 18:47 zelblade wrote:
The last part regarding my day 2 vote stuff. Hyaach gave me scummy vibes all through day 1, primilarly due to his first couple of posts which I felt were odd as well as a couple of other things. Which is also why at the start of day 2 I trusted blazinghand over hyaach - simply because I felt BH looked much better as opposed to hyaach. When hyaach's JK claim came, I was obviously suspicious of it due to the fact that it could be "confirmed" by using the mafia RB, as well as the fact that towns were unlikely to lynch claimed medics (which was, as he said, what he esentially was in this setup due to a lack of medics.) (Note that I am aware this isnt really the case in TL towns, but hyaach played somewhere else where this might have been the case, assumption here.)

However, what made me doubt myself regarding my read on hyaach and BH was a couple of things. First off ghost's post on BH's meta made me realise that BH's posting as compared to his meta was pretty different, and there was something fishy with how he reacted to the claim (I did consider this earlier but thought that it was possible that he was hiding the fact that he was actually a vig, only later realising that his reaction was instant, which was actually pretty suspicious), as well as me rereading hyaach's filter. Hyaach's posting in d2 made me feel that he was more off an annoyed townie rather than scum. It was more of a gut feel of course.

So why didn't you say this immediately? As it stands, you gave reasons for why Hyaach is scummy yet you ended up voting for BH. This did not change regardless of how you explain it afterwards. Why didn't you post these reasons when you voted for BH? If you had these reasons before you could've posted them. If you're making them up now it means you didn't have them when you were deciding on your vote which would still make your vote scummy as hell.

And yes I did think that 1 of BH or hyaach had to be scum. Because I didnt realise how SK interacted with being roleblocked till later on, and I didnt actually consider that possibility.

The primary reason why I felt the need to I needed to "fill myself with doubt" was because I was extermely unsure. There were things that made both of you look town, as well as things that made you two look scum, and I took a fairly long time to decide which one of you is scum. I find your meta agurement here weak, since I havent exactly been put in a (what I thought) was a 1-1 trade situation as town, and in a spot where I felt extemely unsure between two candidates.

Yeah, who would've thought an SK would not be able to kill if he got RBed. That makes a lot of sense.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2012 06:49 Snarfs wrote:
On zelblade, there are two things that make me think that he's the best chance at hitting scum we have tomorrow (that have happened in this game, much of what blazinghand said in his case was meta and I think Artanis showed just how biased meta can be):

The first one was the wishy washy post where he ends up voting blazinghand. BH and Artanis have discussed this already and I agree with them that there seemed to be quite a bit of cognitive dissonance between his thoughts and his vote.
For reference, the post is here: [click]

The second thing I noticed when reading zelblade was his strange insistence that claiming that there are 4 mafia in the game was a reason to lynch furerkip. Zelblade's reasoning wasn't that furer had scumslipped, but rather that furer had claimed that something was in the OP when it wasn't. This misrepresents what furer said though as he doesn't claim anywhere that it says in the OP that there are 4 mafia.:

First he tries to push the idea that furer claimed that it listed 4 mafia in the OP even though that's not what ghost says. ghost claims that "It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip". I personally don't think that scum would ever blatantly lie and believe that furer was guessing the number of scum based on the number of roles available. I find it very hard to believe that anyone actually thought he was saying that it literally says in the OP that there were 4 max scum:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2012 22:49 zelblade wrote:
On June 06 2012 22:40 ghost_403 wrote:
The post that I had originally thought was most scummy from Furer was this one. I don't like the fact that he says he's going to back off on VE since no one is jumping on his bandwagon. However, upon further reflection, I think he did exactly what I would have done in the situation: state that he still thought VE was scummy and move on to doing something else. I don't think that he's nearly as scummy after giving it further thought.

This post still bothers me a little:
On June 05 2012 07:38 furerkip wrote:
If you are wondering where I got 4 from, it's from the maximum amount of mafia as you can see on the 1st page.

I've checked the first page, and it doesn't say how many scum are in the game. It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip. If he does flip scum, I would assume that there are either four scum total, or, more likely, three scum and a serial killer.

I still don't like his stances on mislynches outside of LYLO, but that could be easily attributed to him learning to play outside of TL.

tl;dr: I was wrong, and my read on him has gone from scum to null.


Wait what?

I took his word for it and didnt check the OP -_-

I dont think that him claiming that there was 4 scum is scummy since its a somewhat plausible assumption and may be the norm where he plays, but him lying about it being in the op is just...

Then, zelblade attempts to gain support from other players for a furer lynch. He hardly tries to pressure furer at all and is waiting for others to jump on the wagon first:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2012 22:52 zelblade wrote:
I am actually willing to lynch furekip based on that alone. As said, there is no townie reasoning possible to lie about something like that. Sure scumslips are usually made by townies but I dont think that they would lie about their reasoning like this. The only problem with this is that it is so dumb as mafia too -_-

So furekip why did you lie about it?

He then continues to try and push furerkip for the next 3 days even though he has clearly disappeared from the game and would be perfect scum bait for a mislynch:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 17:50 zelblade wrote:
Also I want to lynch furekip if he doesnt give a good explanation for lying about the mafia team numbers thing.

Show nested quote +
On June 10 2012 11:13 zelblade wrote:
Well at least this flip gives us quite a decent bit of info.

Furekip and bh should be our next 2 lynches.


Thoughts?


The first part I covered above.

Regarding the second part, from furekips phrasing I think it is pretty clear that he said that the front page stated that there was 4 mafia, when it clearly didnt. I found it exceedingly odd primilarly because there is absoulutely no reason for any townie whatsoever to lie about it, whilst there is a least a probable scum reason to claim something like this (to cover a scumslip). Obviously this doesnt hold water anymore considering that we have 8 players and the game isnt over yet.[/QUOTE]
I found that post of his strange as well and I can't blame you for finding it suspicious. However, you implied you didn't think Meta was important.
First off your agurement is mostly meta but ok.
Yet in the first part of your defense you note
First off ghost's post on BH's meta made me realise that BH's posting as compared to his meta was pretty different

I'm curious. Do you think meta is important or not? If you do, there clearly are some similarities to how you played as scum in LI in regards of attempting to showcase yourself as town, where you didn't in MTG mafia. If you don't, then your argument for BH being scummy because of meta goes right out of the water. You can't have the cake and eat it too.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 14 2012 18:53 GMT
#894
On June 15 2012 00:01 zelblade wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2012 07:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Agreed, Blazinghand.

Given furerkip's statement about how long VE's claim was, I decided to take a look at his previous claim in MTG Mafia to compare the length.
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2012 08:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Cool.

I'll be brief. I want you to lynch me if you PROMISE TO LYNCH BUGS NEXT. Everyone seems to think either Bugs or I am scum or that we both are. As such, if you guys have a handle on this outside the two of us, I prefer you just get us out of the way first so whoever is left is confirmed whatever. Please guys, no one is going to listen to anything I say at this point and I'm just a distraction. Remove it. Also I'm the Doctor, so if you don't lynch one of me or Bugs, I'm dead tonight anyway.

Gg guys, sorry I allowed Bugs to mindfuck me so hard this game.

I had a null read on VE's claim at first because of the fact that both Millers and veteran mafia players should claim miller in a game where the miller is self aware, this does slightly push the case in favor of a mafia VE, but it's still a weak case. How VE will handle himself the rest of the game is going to be a lot more important. My concern however is that he shits up the thread regardless like he did in MTG Mafia where he tunneled WBG hard as town, and did the same as Toad as mafia, meaning that him tunneling someone isn't indicative of alignment. To be frank, I'm not sure how to read him.

Show nested quote +
Why would Miller claiming be good for the person claiming?

VE as a veteran is likely to get checked by a DT. By claiming early he prevents getting checked by a DT. We already know he would check red now regardless of whether he's lying or not, so a DT check is now useless.


I disagree with a few of the things said in here.
(1) I dont see why veteran mafia players "should" claim miller when it is a risky move since it would not only put said player under a ton of scrutiny, as well as the fact that a counterclaim = ve is fucked since it is exteremely unlikely for there to be 2 millers in a 13 player game.
(2) If both veteran mafia players as well as millers ought to claim miller, why is this a factor that makes him lean slighty that VE is scum? I dont understand this point at all.

This feels a lot like him dumping suspision on VE for no clear reason.

1. I told you why miller would be good for claiming in the damn post. VE is likely to get checked because he's a vet, and as a miller he would show up red and would probably end up getting lynched because of it. By claiming he prevents a mislynch in a later situation.
2. Point to me where I said that I lean slightly red on him in this post? I said he's a null read, and he was.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 09 2012 05:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
This shit is confusing the fuck out of me and I don't have enough time to read things through thoroughly at this time. My initial read on Hyaach was that his early comments were too dumb to be mafia. His RB claim after BH claimed to be RBed also feels like it's not something a mafia would do. Either he's playing dumb, or he's telling the truth. I wasn't planning on killing BH today but with no day kills it feels like someone has to be lying. The thing with BH not instantly bussing Pandain after his claim doesn't work in his favor either. My gut says Blazinghand, and that's where my vote goes.
##Vote: Blazinghand

On June 09 2012 20:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Okay, it seems that for Hyaach to be town there needs to be both a Town roleblocker and a Jailkeeper. For Blazinghand's claim, there just needs to be a vig and a mafia roleblocker. Going to go occam's razor on this.
##Unvote
##Vote: Hyaach


I have a problem with this vote.

First off lets analyze D2. Imagnie you are scum and you have 2 free mislynches lined up due to some crazy night actions. Blazinghand somehow survived your hit, but its prefectly fine. At this point you are probably thinking that BH got jailed, but who cares since town will lynch him and hyaach. You dont give a shit who gets lynched first, as long as one of them dies and flips town. However, hyaach comes along and claims JK. At this point, you realise that BH couldnt have been jailed, as two JKs are exteremly unlikely and hyaach has no reason to lie. You thus conclude that BH is SK. At this point, who would scum want to lynch?

If they lynch hyaach, they get not only a JK, but also a very likely lynch on BH the next day. 2 lynches not on them bringing the game to Lylo.

If they lynch BH, town will probably figure out that hyaach is innocent and piece together the informtion. Free mislynch gone.

Artansis's reasoning for his switch to BH is exceedingly wierd. He initally bases his vote off gut. Fine. However, he switches his vote, to a wierd occam's razor crap. First off, in hyaach's scineario there needs to be a town rb, a JK and a mafia rb. Not all that unlikely. In BH's case, there needs to be a vig, a mafia roleblocker, as well as another JK or roleblocker to stop scum's (missing) night hit. This reasoning for the vote switch makes 0 sense, and it feels a lot like him attempting to shift the votes off onto hyaach - because that is a better lynch for scum. (all this not taking SK into account since we werent considering possibility of SK at that point in time)

Let's analyze D2. Imagine you are Town and you have no clue what alignment either of these players are. You have no clue if their claims are correct. First you go with your gut because the last time I went with my mind (Pandain) I was wrong, and I voted Blazinghand. However, after this post I considered the actions neccesary to make Hyaach town too great compared to that of BH to still go with my gut. Shraft after that made a good point about how BH being town would require more blues than I thought as well which made me doubt a lot, as you saw at the end of the lynch period where I was willing to switch to BH if there was another person if a no lynch was the alternative given furerkip's absence.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2012 07:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Can't say I saw that shot coming. I was expecting myself, Snarfs or Shraft to get shot. Guess they got a blue read on her somehow, or her reads were making sense. Regardless, zelblade's case is still the strongest by far to me. It was also made by Blazinghand whom was doing anything he could to stay alive and is as unaware of factions as we are, so his case can be seen as legit in that regard. It also raised some good points regarding his behavior.
##Vote: Zelblade


Another post I have a huge problem with. Oh I may be biased and all since its regarding me but BH was definately trying to stay alive. Dont you think that he would attempt to stretch the case as best as he could - to make it look "better" than it was?

He would try to make a case on the person he thought was most scummy and yes of course he'd overdo it a bit. That's why I didn't agree with the first two sections of his case, but I did agree with the third part and asked questions rather than seamlessly taking over his case.

You also posted this earlier in reply to BH's post: + Show Spoiler +
On June 13 2012 03:46 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Blazinghand, I've been more than willing to discuss any cases which I have done plenty yesterday, as well as provide my own case on snarfs which you debunked well. Let me provide you with my interpretation of your case.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 09:59 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm here to talk about Zelblade. He's scum.

My argument against him is mostly going to be analysis, but I'll talk about his meta as well. The two sources I'm using for his meta are LI, in which he was scum (link) and MTG Mini, in which he was town (link) to get a better understanding of how he plays.

1) Zelblade played D1 start to his scum meta.

To get an idea of how Zelblade starts his scum games off, in LI he opened up with a bunch of questions and soft-defenses of town players (link)(link 2). This basically lets him make some minor contributions until he can find a safe wagon to hop on (link) but only after someone else, a townie, has made a case against that guy (link). He's not afraid to break ground with his vote, but he doesn't make any new cases. I'm not gonna talk about his D2 play from LI, because of the notorious 2-way bus that game-- our D2 was the opposite situation, where two players that weren't in his Scum QT where attacking each other.

In his town play, Zelblade is different. As he goes into MTG, Zelblade is lurking but comes out swinging with a case against VE AND a case against NT (link). Also, as an aside, he seems utterly unafraid to lurk. He's apologetic about it, but he goes long periods of times, sometimes days, posting like once or twice in a 24 hour span with meh posts. He's admittedly a low-post-count player, but he doesn't put a lot of effort into "appearing" town when he's town. He'll disappear 20 hours, make a one-line post (link), then disappear for another 20 hours without contributing. When he comes back, he comes back with a read and a vote (link).

I would hardly call that a case. It's two paragraphs. What you've posted right now is a case, what he posted in that post were some mild accusations. He's also asked a bunch of questions in MTG mafia. Three questions in a row:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2012 17:49 zelblade wrote:
By the way is there a voting thread. Because I dont see one and the OP states that there is one.

Show nested quote +
On May 22 2012 17:56 zelblade wrote:
Hey marv who are you suspicious of at this point besides mattchew? Can you also clearly state why you think nova is town based off meta alone? Because I cant see it being similar.

Show nested quote +
On May 22 2012 18:05 zelblade wrote:
Acid so what do you think of nova now? Why is marvellosity buddying with nova a scummy thing to do?

And he had many more questions. The lurking behavior is a sketchy claim at best; he's been inactive as both scum and town, though I will give you that he does appear to put in more effort when he's scum. I also don't feel he's put a lot of effort in "appearing" town in this game. Can you pinpoint out the exact posts this game where you feel he tried to "appear town"?

Show nested quote +
So how does Zelblade play here? Well, he starts off asking weird questions (link) and making a soft defense based on setup that was inherently reasonable (link). Typical Scum Zelblade. And as soon as the heat picks up on Pandain, he hops right on board. To really contextualize his Pandain vote, let's check out how he responds to claims.

I just showed how Zelblade asked questions in MTG mafia too, which means it complies with both his town and scum meta. He also hopped on the VE bandwagon in MTG mafia, and the Mouldy Jeb mafia earlier as well. You seem to find things that correspond with how he played scum and then completely negate to search for if he did these things as town too, which he has.

Show nested quote +
2. Zelblade voted Pandain like he does in scum meta.

As town he distrusts weird claims: (link), especially ones without check crumbs (link) to back them up, and immediately calls out Zealos for a bad claim. Sounds like that informed his Pandain reaction, but when we see HOW he went about it, it's a lot more like his scum play than his town play.

His reactions to Pandain's claim and Pandain's play D1 match his D1 scum play in LI almost perfectly. He calls out Pandain for diverting the discussion WHILE hiding behind other player's arguments (link):
On June 06 2012 22:21 zelblade wrote:
Either way I would be perfectly fine with a Pandain lynch. The blueslip feels exteremely fake to me. Slipping like that is akin to making a major scumslip... and one is more likely than not going to be more careful about leaking their role no? As pointed out, the random vig claim as well as the random mason discussion managed to severly derail the thread which reeks of scum. A couple more points is that he tries to dump suspision on me through a vauge statement.

JUST as he did in LI with his case and vote against Tunkeg AFTER ET made the initial case against Tunkeg (link)
On April 09 2012 21:54 zelblade wrote:
Giving my thoughts on the lynch candidates proposed so far.

My preferred lynch for today would actually be Tunkeg. He first starts off the day with his "random lynch", as well as a spreadsheet detailing the "scores" of everyone, and by extension, how "good" they supposedly are. Although he claims that his aim with this was to generate discussion, the content of the generated discussion, in my opinion, does not help town at all. Looking at the next couple of pages after his post, one will notice that what this has mostly done is do an excellent job of distracting town, instead getting most players to comment on how wrong his list is and agure what exactly a W/L ratio is. I personally dont feel that his list has managed to do anything in terms of scumhuting, and has actually distracted us from doing so.

//snip//

As such, this is why I believe that Tunkeg is scum. He has managed to waste a boatload of town's time discussing the vitrues of his so-called random lynch and why Jackal is bad, and his sput defense just doesnt click well with me.

This is how Zelblade operates as scum: he finds a townie who's already been pushed, usually for saying something irrelevant, but also talks about the D1 candidate "wasting town's time" or "diverting discussion" in addition to reciting main components of the case the others have.

What I'm seeing in these two different threads (one as mafia, one as town), the main difference I see is how much Zelblade tries to put in effort when he's scum to look town. Zelblade has jumped on bandwagons both as town and as scum though, so bandwagoning Pandain is not something that points to Zelblade being scum. The second part holds more water, but isn't enough for me to consider him mafia.

Show nested quote +
Contrast his town play in MTG when he votes to lynch MJ (link), in which he shoots down other cases and notably does not need to justify his case with talk about sidetracking the town, even though MJ WAS full of weird statements about consolidating evidence, jumping to conclusions, and odd vote justifications and non-justifications. He voted who he wanted lynched without fear and without worrying about repercussions.

On May 23 2012 00:00 zelblade wrote:
Apparently I screwed up that quote tag -_-

Eh I just realised its pluarity lynch lol. I am considering if I should dump my vote on zealos and see if it gains any traction or onto one of the three leading candidates. Kind of a hard decision since I wouldnt mind all of them dying.

Mattchew is still being a pain in the ass, though his posts are starting to get understandable, and he actually has more content than say, mouldy jeb. Probably not the best lynch today, think hes town.

I still think nova is scummy. But mouldy more so. Agree with marv's case generally.

##vote: Mouldy Jeb

Also I am going to sleep soon (school) so I probably cant change my vote (deadline sucks for me as usual -_-).


He talks about other players being scummy, but says this target is the most scummy. He does not waffle and waver. He doesn't justify his vote or ameliorate the hard edges his case with lip-flapping.

His D1 vote on Pandain looks JUST LIKE his D1 LI vote, and nothing like his voting and case-making when he's scum. This is Zelblade trying to deflect attention and make up easy reasons to vote easy targets, just like when he was scum in LI.

Wait, isn't he just talking about his case in both the previous two posts? It seems he pays more attention to making cases when he's scum rather than when he's town, where he talked more about the other suspects in the quoted posts.

Show nested quote +
Section 3: Zelblades Reaction to Hyaach v BH is scummy regardless of Meta

Zalblade's D2 vote on me (link) and his D1 vote on Pandain, coupled with the accompanying cases, look exactly like his scum voting, and nothing like his town voting. In fact, he spent so much time talking about how much he was "bugged" that scum would make my roleclaim and how Hyaach, who had to be town if I was scum, gave him "scummy vibes" that I thought he was voting to lynch Hyaach, not me.

Hey look, we have an actual argument. I like this point. I just searched zelblade's history on MTG mafia and saw him post nothing of the sort.

Show nested quote +
On June 10 2012 02:28 zelblade wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Well since no roleblocker is claiming and i cannot be around during the deadline I will be making my decision now.

At the start of the day I believed that bh wasnt lying. Well until ghost brought up the meta changes that is. I can understand him wanting to change his playstyle.... But i think that he would have said something like "I'm going to try to be less agressive" pretend if that was the case no? A minor point of course. I am unsure about his reaction regarding pandain's claim. I definitely think him playing it off was possible, but I found this post wierd.

On June 06 2012 11:18 Blazinghand wrote:
dude you are aware there are like RBs and shit in this game


Note the this is an instant reaction. Let's say someone claims a role that you have and it is exteremly unlikely there are two of the same role. Wouldt you stop for a little while and give it some thought about how you are going to react to what is very possibly a fakeclaim? I don't see why he would post this. By the way, this is before where bh claims he realized he slipped so.... It's not a cover up.

What is really bugging me is this - why in the world would a scum bh claim vig? It makes no sense. He didn't know he was getting roleblocked, and doing so would force a 1-1 trade with hyaach at best.

Onto hyaach, he has given me scum vibes at the start of the game. Not going to elaborate but his general posting and luckiness made me feel off about him.

Claiming rb as scum makes sense, I already explained why somewhere in my filter, so this is a null tell.

His jailkeeper claim is sketchy too. Exteremly convenient. The lack of a town rb claiming (not exsisting or simply not willing to claim?) weakens it quite a bit. I can see ehat he means when he says that he shot down every jk scinerio though. It's definitely possible that was faked. However, I'm actually inclined to believe this claim since my gut says so. His recent posting seem to have a fearless aura which makes me feel that he's town.

I'm going to just go with bh I guess.

##unvote
##vote: blazinghand


Look a tthis post and this vote. This isn't what a town player would do. If you were unsure, you would cast a vote for BH and say "yeah he looks scummier" and yeah, if you're gonna be afk for the rest of the day, you lay out your thoughts. But read this post and ask yourself-- is this how a town player writes a case, or how a scum player tries to duck responsibility and come out looking townie at the same time?

In fact, this is not how Zelblade ends any of his vote posts as town-- he never feels the need to justify himself or fill himself full of doubts like this. He probably anticipated me not flipping Mafia and didn't want to look too bad on the wagon. Typical scum play.

This doesn't look at all like MtG Zelblade.

This looks like LI Zelblade.

This looks like scum. Let's vote him, and not waste a lynch on the SK who wants to help town.

I don't like how his vote looks either. Yet I have seen many vote like this and still flip up town. However, this point coupled with him talking more about scummy vibes this game than his town game do give me the impression that Zelblade is red, where the first two points were more null. I might change my vote, I'm not sure yet. Giving some examples in this game where he tries to "appear" green would be helpful.


In here, you say that the points against me are weak. You even defend me from most of his points, stating that his meta analysis of me was not really accurate, and only a small portion of the case held water.

So I am the strongest case? No, from this I highly doubt that this would be your opinion. If you were town.

I said that point 1 and 2 were weak, but point 3 was decent and asked for clarification of where he thought you feigned to be town. He gave me that and that gave me incentive enough to be willing to switch to you. Now that he died, you are my prime suspect and still are.

Oh and another thing: Guess who was roleblocked n2? Wifom, sure, and whilst it is entirely possible that scum and BH stacked on VE, the other possibility that katina roleblocking him stopped the night kill exsists. It is already somewhere in my filter why scum would claim getting rb'd.

Ghost already showed that this actually makes it more likely for me to be town than scum. I claimed instantly after I got the pm because I know I'm town so I have nothing to hide. As scum I'd probably have to think if claiming is a good idea.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 14 2012 20:11 GMT
#896
That was about the length of the claim, not the claim itself. I compared the length of his claim to that of one he made in mtg mafia as someone had made a point about the meta.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 14 2012 20:21 GMT
#898
Very slightly, but yes, you are correct. I forgot about it since he didn't include it in the quote.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 14 2012 20:55 GMT
#899
On June 14 2012 18:47 Palmar wrote:
Here's the thing about this lynch, we're in lylo. If 5 people, other than me, agree on lynching zelblade, he's not scum. So far at least three people have agreed to lynch him. So either I must think that these three people are all town, or I must think that zelblade is town, there is no middle ground.

Which is why I'm going to read more, not only on zb, but also on the people voting him. There are only 5 townies in the game and we need to vote in a single block.

Yeah because Mafia totally never bandwagons their own members to gain town cred AND fuck with people's minds into thinking it's going too easily. This post alone will make it so that we can't rely on that as mafia knows all they need to do is vote their own member over 5 votes to get you to switch.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 14 2012 21:00 GMT
#900
On June 15 2012 01:48 Navillus wrote:
I don't like the zelblade lynch very much. First one of the primary driver's for the lynch seems to be the case BH made on him which I'm not happy lynching off of for a few reasons. One is that the case is almost entirely composed of meta and I'm just not comfortable lynching based on meta, meta changes, I wasn't in those games so I can't really say how he was acting there and just going over a filter after the fact usually doesn't give the same feel, and additionally the fact is BH is a very good player, probably could have made a good case on a lot of people, and we just don't know what his motivation was.

Wait, you don't like the case because it's meta and because you don't know the motivation for BH on making that post? Regarding the first point: What else would you like to lynch on? Meta looks at patterns that people have when they get a certain role. Some of that is done subconsciously and players aren't aware of it until someone else points it out, at which point it's too late. Secondly I can tell you quite clearly what BH's motivation was for making that case: Not getting lynched. What's the best way of not getting lynched? Making a case on the person that looks the most scummy. Who looks the most scummy? Zelblade. Of course he's going to make a case on the person he thinks is most suspicious because it's the easiest case to make.

The only other major thing I see here is shraft's argument which seems to be based on Zelblades sort of flipping between Hyaach and BH and his weird explanation for his votes, this is a little more convincing, but it also isn't huge because on the other hand I've seen town do this type of thing fairly often as well as townies are usually much less worried about staying really consistent with their votes and reads than scum and are more likely to be ok flipping between people or not trying to vote the person that looks like it makes the most sense for them. Right now I don't like a Zblade lynch.

Flip flopping is fine as long as you have good reasons for it. Zelblade basically said Hyaach looks weird, then voted for BH. That's not flip flopping, that's straight contradiction in one post.

MrZ on the other hand, would be a great lynch. he's been seriously quiet with his opinions about everything for a long time now, throwing in a number of one liners to look like he's contributing without ever saying anything that could be read or disagreed with. He jumped on both Hyaach and BH but never gives a solid explanation or a read that could be debated on either of them. He doesn't give arguments for why BH was scum or if not why we should lynch SK, he's basically been getting away with saying nothing. At this point in the game this is the ideal scum play if he can get away with it which he definitely will not. ##Vote: MrZentor

I still have to look at Artanis, I'm not sure about him yet.

Please do. Also, if you're going to vote someone that doesn't have a case on him yet you should make a case on him. This is far too easy and reeks of scum given no one's actually made a case on Zentor yet. It seems you want to split up the vote in order to potentially get a No Lynch. If you really want Zentor dead, make a case on him because this 5-line summary won't do.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 15 2012 10:29 GMT
#902
Where the hell is everyone?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 15 2012 16:52 GMT
#914
Actually I did mention my reasons for why BH looked scummy as well. Oh its definately jumbled up but its in there.

Yes, you mentioned meta. Applying that same meta to you makes you look scummy too.
I cant tell if this is sacarsm. If it is I just played PYP wherein SK's shot would not get blocked if he got RB'd, but his bulletproof would be gone, which happens to be completely different from this game.

Yes, it was sarcasm. The standard for a SK getting roleblocked is.. getting his shot blocked. I presumed that was obvious.
Meta is useful in certain cases. I think it worked pretty well in BH's case, though it isnt exactly going to work well in mine. The things that have been pointed out on me by BH are fairly small and unconclusive imo, which can be easily seen when I flip =/

My playstyle is generally is to just go with the flow and post whatever I feel like whenever I feel like regardless of alignment.

By the way, artansis, I highly doubt that you find BH's points on me as the strongest case.

So meta works when it's someone else, but it doesn't work when it's about you? That's some fancy piece of logic right there. I really hope this isn't the best defense you have. And yes, I do find you the strongest case. You're not doing much to make me think otherwise.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 15 2012 16:53 GMT
#915
Also, you haven't actually refuted any of the points I made in my defense, yet continue to call me the strongest case. Why?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 15 2012 22:04 GMT
#917
Modkill ftw.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 15 2012 22:07 GMT
#918
Actually suspected Palmar quite a bit already dude to the furer post and him claiming he was "basically confirmed town" which is something town shouldn't do, as well as the wifom thing about 5 people that aren't him voting. Now we at least have a lead on where to continue. Surprised that zelblade didn't flip mafia, but at least we have someone to go from. The zelblade wagon did form a bit too easily and now we know why. This clears Navillus a little bit.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 15 2012 23:29 GMT
#921
Initial thoughts, Snarfs? They'd be helpful.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 09:39 GMT
#923
Alright, here's what we're going to do. Until the night submit deadline at 21:00 GMT (+00:00), I want to see nothing but questions in this thread. No reads, no suspects, nothing. You will prepare a case on at least one player that you find most suspicious and post it at exactly 21:00 GMT (+00:00) so that we know players aren't influenced by one another. This will force Mafia to make a case too and they don't know who looks townie to who as well as we do. This is our best shot. We've gotten a free Mafia, we finally have information to go off on, so we have to be able to finish it from here. Let's do this.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 15:28 GMT
#925
Can you tell me why? I'd rather not give the mafia any leads for their shot, and I can't imagine the making a case part being a bad idea.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 17:48 GMT
#926
Navillus, Shraft, Snarfs, Ghost, do you agree with my idea?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 21:00 GMT
#927
I went through everyone's filter again and made notes (except Shraft, didn't get to him yet), and the person that jumps out as the most suspicious to me is Navillus. These are my notes as I read through his history:
-Shortest post history
-Comments on furer's mislynch thing
-Null read on VE, would have stronger read on other people
-Reads furer as slightly town
-Doesn't see the Ghost case
-FOS's MrZentor
-Proceeds to vote on Hyaach
-Weird reason for why he didn't vote on MrZentor
-Continues discussing off topic with Pandain
-Says he prefers to say too much (then why the short history?)
-Thinks Pandain's claim is dumb but doesn't see it as scum
-Keeps asking for other people to stop lurking, yet lurks himself quite a bit
-Continues to hammer on lurkers while lurking himself
-Believes BH's claim, votes Furer for a weak reason (inactivity), not dangerous for mafia as it never gained any traction
-Apologetic nature of posts (I'm on my phone, I'm busy, etc)
-Says he doesn't ignore BH's meta then basically does
-Votes Hyaach
-Suddenly doesn't think inactivity is a reason anymore
I don't think his disappearing from the game really has anything to do with alignment

-Says he reads Katina as town
-Wants to kill BH because he's an SK and a good player, ignores logic against it
-Goes after MrZentor when the zelblade lynch is basically locked in
-Says he still has to look after me, yet never does before the deadline, feels like a Mafia that already knows they've won so gets sloppy

First he defends Furer, then later in the game he calls his inactivity a reason for his lynch, then even later he doesn't think it's a reason to lynch anyone anymore. My suspicion is that this is because he thought furer would get modkilled and wanted to gain some town cred, but then when a vet like Palmar replaced him he suddenly didn't want to put any more heat on him.

His exchanges with MrZentor have been interesting too. He starts out by giving him an FoS, then votes Hyaach. He also goes in against the Pandain lynch which was gaining a lot of traction, which doesn't really mean much as Mafia wants there to be some resistance to a lynch as otherwise people will start to think it's going too easily.

Finally, he keeps commenting about lurkers yet he is the lurkiest player left. His posting history is only two pages long, and it really doesn't look good. Right now I want to see Navillus lynched the most out of all players, at least until I've examined Shraft.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 21:25 GMT
#930
That's an interesting claim. I had you pegged as a null, but it makes sense now that you'd try to explain my roleblock claim as Town. What I wonder though is why you chose these people to check. Given your posting history it seems more logical to check BH Night 1 and in your posting history I never saw you defend Hyaach that actively. Why?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 21:25 GMT
#931
Also, MrZentor is my biggest town read right now.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 21:44 GMT
#932
Okay, since I expect it's highly likely that I'll die today, I'm going to mention that my second biggest suspect is Ghost. This because of soft attacks on Furerkip while voting on someone else, attacking a lot of different people, causing chaos and now with this DT claim that doesn't line up with whom he suspected those days. The only part of it that truly makes sense is that he'd defend me based on his expected night actions, but that would make sense from a scum perspective too. It feels like he's making a play to go big or go home. Here's my notes on everyone else I made during the reading of the filters since I have the feeling everyone's getting a bit lazy. Should provide a quick overview of what everyone's said this game.
+ Show Spoiler +
Ghost_403
-Buys VE's claim on the ground of putting himself under a lot of scrutiny
-Has some self doubt
-Soft attacks Furerkips
-Posts case on BH
-Happier to lynch MrZentor
-Comes back from his attack on Furer
-Attacks MrZentor, votes him
-Attacks Zelblade
-Attacks BH
-Votes BH
-Keeps going after BH
-No longer thinks MrZentor is mafia but rather bad townie
-Hesitant to comment on Snarfs at first, then says he thinks it's null, prefers Zelblade
-Doesn't want to lynch Zelblade in favor of Blazinghand
-Doesn't want to discuss Zelblade with Blazinghand
-Clears my name based on night actions
-Votes Zelblade

MrZentor
-Null read/slightly pro town on VE
-Furer being a bit rash
-Calls out Ghost for legit reasons (Ghost claimed to misread VE always yet comes in with a read)
-Soft accuses Navillus for voting on someone nobody has accused
-Null read on Blazinghand
-Minor contradiction on saying that he has no idea despite having said he has a slightly pro town read on VE
-Suspects Ghost for suspecting Furer
-Switches to Navillus after a "super scummy post"
-Thinks Pandain might be green because of forced "accidental claim"
-Thinks he might be scum because of lying about accidentally claiming
-Votes Pandain
-Argues a lot with Blazinghand about confirming vigis
-Says he thinks neither BH nor Hyaach are scum
-Comes back from that and gives an explanation why he thinks Hyaach is scum based on actions
-Willing to vote Furer if a roleblocker comes up
-Thinks Snarfs is probably innocent
-Votes Zelblade

Snarfs
-Thinks Furer talks a lot and will be in trouble if he's scum
-Mentions it's dangerous to write him off as a newbie
-Asks questions at the start
-Asks for old meta of other players, never gets back to this
-Dissapointed by BH, votes on him
-Calls out Navillus
-Mild suspicion on MrZentor
-Doesn't want to focus on setup speculation
-Doesn't want to vote Pandain
-Gives a good reason to unvote Blazinghand
-Votes Hyaach
-Thinks BH's claim of being vigi is legit
-Recommends against connections until red flips
-Seems eager to see Furer flip
-Still thinks BH is probably vigi because of WIFOM
-Wants to lynch furerkip/Palmar (soft attack)
-Makes minor case on Katina
-Dismisses Shraft's case on Navillus
-Joins in on the case against Zelblade
-Asks people to give their thoughts on Zelblade
-Puts some pressure on Palmar to actually provide thoughts
-Says he'll give the thread a reread, hasn't come back since yet

Shraft
-Calls out furerkip for his interpretation of VE's post
-Keeps an analytical style of posting
-Analyses furerkip as someone that probably played a lot on Epicmafia
-Tries his best to understand Hyaach's posts
-Makes a case on Navillus, no vote though
-Thinks the case on MrZentor BH posted is sound
-Suspects MrZ for BH's case but doesn't specify exactly what. Says
He (MrZ) openly states that he has a hard time reading BH, while ghost says something and provides some reasoning on why it could be true, just to discredit himself in the next sentence.
which is more something against Ghost than MrZentor
-Happy with Pandain lynch
-Not happy with a Navillus lynch anymore
-Gut feeling that one of the mafia is lurking, kind of in contrast with his analytical approach
-Makes a case against Zelblade
-Thinks Zelblade and Hyaach are most suspicious
-After no one died, wants to lynch zelblade hyaach or furerkip
-Thinks furerkip probably is townie
-Unaware that there are no medics in the role list
-Believes BH's claim
-Changes opinion on BH after a post from Ghost
-Has a hard time deciding between Hyaach and BH
-Wants Town RB to claim
-Draws a bunch of situations with BH/Hyaach, doesn't consider the SK option.
-Goes with his gut after pointing out a few rational reasons why BH might be Mafia
-Wants RBer to claim
-Doesn't want to attach too much meaning to the Furerkip replacement
-Goes against his read by voting BH based on game mechanics
-Thinks it's likely MrZentor is mafia
-Doesn't think the Snarfs case was strong
-Unvotes BH when he claims SK (This I view as very unlikely to be mafia), considers both Navillus and zelblade
-Gives good reasons why he changed back to Navillus being suspicious
-Suspicious on Zelblade

I'd say don't blindly follow what I said here even if I flip today and flip green, but I would put greater stock in what Shraft and MrZentor say over Navillus or Ghost. I'd say my main doubt is whether Snarfs is mafia or not, but I find the Ghost case a bit stronger. Snarfs has some definite flaws too though and will need to answer for them. Be active guys. We can still win this if we try hard.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
June 16 2012 21:55 GMT
#935
MrZentor is town. I'm fairly sure. Though he bandwagons, he changes votes a lot depending on what happens in the thread. He gives me a very Town vibe despite the low content. We're not here to lynch anti town. We have to lynch scum. I don't think MrZentor is scum.
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