iGrok's Good Clean Old-fashioned Mafia - Page 6

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 17 2012 13:53 GMT

#838

Man, D1 Brownbear is super scummy. After that he gets better, but not by a whole lot.

However, I can't shake that I think Palmar is a better lynch, and that I don't think Palmar and BB share the same alignment.

I DO find it extremely odd that Palmar randomly slots in Wiggles as one of his top scumreads, but if Palmar knows he's getting lynched then it's all WIFOM anyways. Wiggles could be scum that he's trying to look good, or just a hope that the lynch will swing to Wiggles.

The combo of Palmar's suspicion and Wiggles driving a prplhz lynch is strange though.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 17 2012 16:12 GMT

#841

On June 18 2012 00:57 BrownBear wrote:
I think Greymist is town because I haven't really been able to read through his filter, and don't have much of a read on him. I will do that.

Also gonzaw, don't try to play when you're drunk. Bad things happen. I'll wait for you to come back when sober and clarify what you meant by all of that.

That's hardly a reason to see someone as town.... In fact, it's not!

Basically what you're saying in this post then:

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 17 2012 11:59 BrownBear wrote:
Alright, I'm back.

My resoning behind the Palmar lynch is basically what gonzaw and others have posted. He's not playing the way he normally does when he's town, but he was definitely trying to act like he was Day 1. He's switched his opinion on everyone all the time, without ever providing reasons, and hasn't been called on it until now. He's basically skated, and I don't really understand why we didn't call him on it sooner.

He's definitely my target for today, unless something crazy happens, so I'm gonna look forward. One thing I was considering was the possibility of SK choosing to shoot tonight (and I think someone else mentioned that possibility). Given that the game is winding down, I thought it might be a possibility we'll have to account for. In the end though, I really think SK will not shoot tonight, because it's in his interest to shoot at the last possible moment (preferably when it will end the game). If we mislynch and Palmar is town, then SK will be forced to shoot red to keep the game alive (I think) but given the unlikelihood of that possibility, we're going to have SK KP to worry about.

So I think we lynch Palmar today, then worry about who's SK starting today and tomorrow. My "group of scum" would be:

Palmar
Radfield
prphlz
Wiggles

Palmar, case is proven. The other three I'm much less sure about. I'm certain the SK is one of them, though. All 3 have been trying very hard to play pro-town, but little things about their play have just thrown me off and made me question them.

Is that other than Gonzaw, and the player you haven't filtered, you think everyone is in the "group of scum".

So in other words, you think Gonzaw is town, and everyone else is scummy.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 00:15 GMT

#856

Well done Gonzaw. I'd like to think I would've put it together eventually, but you made it so I didn't have to.

I strongly disagree with BB being the last scum. I feel like the things your pointing out as links are the things I'm seeing as the opposite.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 00:24 GMT

#858

I think BB is town, I think Greymist is Prob Town. I'm sure Gonzaw is Town or SK, and he will almost certainly get shot tonight, unless the last scum thinks he is the SK.

That leaves Wiggles and Chaoser/Prplhz as the last scum, and very possibly as SK too. Scum first though.

I still find Palmar's play in relation to Wiggles very strange.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 00:25 GMT

#859

You feel fairly strongly that Greymist is Town Gonzaw?

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 00:32 GMT

#862

Prplhz looks like scum from his filter. He's pushing fairly clear mafia objectives(arguing against a Palmar lynch, pushing me as scum for being alive, pushing Gonzaw as scum/sk), until he finally decides to shift gears and hop on the bandwagon.

If he went down to the wire with his read and didn't vote Palmar, I would see what you mean. But his complete turn-around post looks like he decided Palmar was toast, and needed a reason to jump on board.

I'll have to recheck everyone else, but he looks like the lynch at the moment.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 00:44 GMT

#865

Let me re-look over BB, and I'll tell you my thoughts. The main feeling I've had is that his interaction with Palmar was genuine, and that it looked like he was putting in effort.

I just looked over Wiggles' last cycle or so, and I think he look not-scum. His reasoning on the prplhz situation is sound, and he was strongly pushing prplhz as scum(In addition to Palmar), and he's been strongly pushing Chaoser all game. I think Palmar including Wiggles randomly is meant to throw us off and think Wiggles might be scum. It's double WIFOM, but pretty standard really. I don't think he's scum.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 00:44 GMT

#866

I'll check over BB in the morning actually.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 21:05 GMT

#885

prplhz, you need to start writing a lot.

Gonzaw, I haven't got around to looking at BB yet.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 21:44 GMT

#886

Man, Brownbear, Greymist, Wiggles, Prp. Who do you guys want to lynch tomorrow? Who do you think is strongly NOT scum?

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 21:44 GMT

#887

I looked through Brownbear. I agree he doesn't look great, but I don't think he's the last scum.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 18 2012 21:45 GMT

#888

On June 19 2012 04:49 prplhz wrote:
You write a lot.

You're getting lynched tomorrow, because you've given us no reason to keep you alive. The prplhz I know is pretty good at being town, and pretty good at giving his thoughts. What gives?

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 19 2012 00:11 GMT

#905

Well played Gonzaw. Very solid effort.

Prp, if you are town, you are going to get mislynched and lose the game. I need a solid effort from you in the next 24 hours. If you are not the last scum, who do you think is. Find him and push him.

I'm going to be rereading everyone, there's no reason to slack off now folks. Wiggles, I want you to assume Prplhz is town, who is the last scum if that's the case?

Greymist, you haven't done much of anything lately. Are you convinced prplhz is the last scum?

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 19 2012 21:13 GMT

#909

I haven't really looked hard at your case on Greymist, because it's way easier to find the last scum first.

Do you think Greymist has a chance of flipping scum Wiggles?

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 20 2012 03:15 GMT

#911

You or prp is last mafia. Not sure which one yet, though I agree the case on prp is strong. There is some strangeness going on with you and Palmar though, I just need the time to work it out. Not sure when I'm going to get that time though...

What do you think of when Chaoser defends Palmar on Day 1? Do you think that looks like scum defending his buddy?

Pretty much anyone could be SK right now, it's difficult to tell. Certainly the last few days SK would have been playing hard to find scum, so the first several days are the key.

Greymist has a lot of interaction with Palmar, and it all looks pretty natural.

Brownbear has a TON of interaction with Palmar, as well as voting Palmar day 1 when Palmar was up for lynch.

Greymist and Brownbear, do you think wiggles could be the last scum? Do me a favor and reread his filter, see if anything grabs you.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 20 2012 11:03 GMT

#914

I definitely have some problems with Wiggles filter, though I'm not sure yet if he's the best lynch.

I'll post my thoughts at lunch when I get a chance. I don't like his post after Day 1 though(the people who did not vote MZ or Palmar post), nor do I like his attempt to switch the lynch to prp.

I'll read a bit more though.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 20 2012 15:26 GMT

#915

OK, here's the blitz case on wiggles.

Day 1 is obviously a write-off, as he does nothing of consequence, and votes himself.

Fairly quickly he gets back after the deadline, and I found his post very odd:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341558&currentpage=22#433

He mentions the three players who DIDN'T vote MZ or Palmar, which was very strange. A townie was just lynched, so who cares about the singleton votes. It makes far more sense to focus on the MZ voters. However, if you know that Palmar is mafia, it all of a sudden makes more sense, because the people who didn't vote MZ/Palmar are people who were afraid to weigh in when a scum death was on the line. From a mafia perspective, it makes sense to have those three look scummy(because it looks like they both wanted to save Palmar, yet didn't want to link themselves in the voting lists)

The entire case he builds on Chaoser+ Show Spoiler +

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341558&currentpage=23#458
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341558&currentpage=24#466

is stretched and overstated. Early plays like Chaosers RNG thing can only be taken so far in a case. However it's mostly the tone that gets me, as it seems like Wiggles is trying not to convince us that Chaoser is scum, but rather to convince us that Wiggles is Town. A lot of the paragraphs are spent relating stories and analogies.

A refusal to post a read on Palmar:

It wasn't worth commenting on because it wasn't completed. When Palmar does stuff, sometimes it's for different purposes than it just appears to be on the surface. When he makes that post on Gonzaw, I have no clue if he actually thinks Gonzaw is scum, or he just wants to pressure him for a reaction, or he wants to see if someone else reacts, or whatever. Like I said, it didn't give me any reason to vote gonzaw and goes against my own read. Besides that, it's palmar doing palmar stuff. I normally ignore that stuff until I think he's scum for it, or it becomes something actual i.e. people actually voting, an actual analysis, a follow-up post, etc.

I also don't particularly like Wiggles play surrounding his Hesmyrr reasoning. I have no real salient point to make with it, but something seems off. You guys be the judge:

If I change my read on chaoser, or need to vote to get him lynched, I'll switch onto Hesmyrr. I like the case on him, and what BB added. His Day 1 vote made me a little suspicious, but I wasn't ready to call him out completely on it, as well, I didn't like his case on VE very much. It had a couple points that were OK, but a big part of it seemed like it was just completely ignoring the content of VE's posts in favour of calling him scum for them. I want to see what he has to say in defense as well.

I mentioned the stance on Day 1, and his case on VE as my own reasons. That he doesn't commit to what he said with a vote shows that he wanted to distance himself somewhat from the lynch, and the VE case doesn't follow logically from what VE posted. It just looks like he decided to make a case on VE and needed reasons to call him scummy; it's grasping. I also agree with what you and BB wrote about the wishy-washiness and wanting to just sort of blend in. I also like when it was pointed out that Hesmyrr just sort of pops up whenever he's being talked about. That's pretty much the definition of active lurking, and is also a strike against him.

He just kind of hits all the reasons in these posts. It feels like he's throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

Wiggles obviously also tries hard to divert the lynch off of Palmar onto prplhz. I'm not going to go into it deeply, but it's obviously scummy by definition. The arguments are not really the prplhz is necessarily scummier. Wiggles puts forward that HE thinks prplhz is scummier, but he never really labors and tries to convince everyone else of that fact. He mainly tries to argue that from a logic standpoint lynching prplhz makes more sense, which is a strange argument.

That's my blitz case on Wiggles. It's not exceptionally strong, as I haven't been able to really flesh out my case. I'm not necessarily making a judgement on Wiggles, as I want to first reread prplhz/chaoser. I'd like to hear Grey's and BB's thoughts though.

Wiggles, if you want to respond to this, that's fine, though most of my case is built on tone and motivation. Additionally on Palmar's interaction with you, which I didn't touch on.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 20 2012 19:36 GMT

#916

Alas, I had hoped to avoid lurker lylo, but it appears that's the reality. Here's hoping people show up to vote.

I'm checkin out prplhz now, and I'm going to decide which one to lynch. If you guys just want to sheep me, that's fine.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 20 2012 19:49 GMT

#917

Fuck, I'm not sure if prp/Chaoser is the last mafia.

Prplhz's filter looks awful though, so that might be what I have to go on. gah

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

June 20 2012 20:01 GMT

#918

OK, we take down prplhz. For better or worse, he's the lynch.

##vote: prplhz