EPTPick Your Power: Redux
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 09 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote: Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. If you're mafia and pick CPR as pick 1, then you will draw a lot of fire if you're still alive and the kp has been 2+ for three nights in a row or something like that. Also dangerous because #1 pick is likely to be checked by some role or the other. Probably still worth it, but not without its drawbacks. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
are pregame announcements allowed? If so I'll totally announce what my number picks would be because I will pick the same regardless of alignment. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Are we waiting on foolishness' dis/approval of an expanded game? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
[6,9] [6,20] [1,1] [1,1] And they were ranked as listed above. This doesn't make sense to me from reading how the rules state the draft picks are resolved. My understanding is first you'd pick the 1s, those two would bump to the back. Then the sixes - those two bump behind the ones. Then it's as if because the second digits matched between the ones, they got bumped all the way behind the sixes, when I think it makes more sense for them to retain their position relative to the sixes, but get randomized within those spots, making the order: [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] It comes down to this statement in the rules: "In the event players picked the same 2 numbers I will once again reset them to the back of the queue(for the order they are in). " What does "for the order they are in" actually mean here? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
[19,19] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] algorithm as posted in the op + Show Spoiler + First digit - start with the 1s. Oh no there's two of them, back of the pack. [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] Then we look for 2s. None of them. Then 3s and so on til sixes. Oh there's two of them. Back to the back of the pack. [19,19] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] And then we look at 7s. Oh wow so many. Back to the end of the line. [19,19] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] Now... we look at second digits within the groups. Oh no two 1s, back to the back of the entire pack. [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] Continuing on the rest of the way. 6 group - nope both are unique and ordered correctly no problem. 7 group - whoa there we got two 7,2s - back to the back of the pack, leaving the order as [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] [7,2] [7,2] ? Just doesn't look right to me, but that's how I read the rules as written. Reading how it's been applied in actuality though (PYP insane, for example), I think all the 7s would end up at the bottom because they are the least unique first digit group, but that rule isn't expressly written. I still think it would be best if it went uniques ranked from lowest to highest groups ranked by first digit from lowest to highest within groups, ranked by second digit lowest to highest. so that even if there were five [1,1]s they all come before two [2,1]s | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
ordered first by number of players clashing and then numerically by first number. My problem is that this double-ranking is NOT in the listed rules (specifically the part about the number of players clashing). I guess the only point from all of this is that GM just needs to spell out completely explicitly what algorithm he will be using so that there is no confusion. Gonzaw, you're exactly right. I thought it was stupid for anyone to pick anything but 1 from my reading of the rules the first time. The only reason you pick 2 as a second number is if you're sure that two other people are both picking the same first number, meaning the only reason you'd ever pick 20 as second number is if there were 39 people in the game and you were sure they were all picking the same first number. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
By the way, I still don't understand the need for a second number at all. I think we could have a perfectly good game without it and flips for tiebreaker instead. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 15 2012 01:37 sandroba wrote: Sandroba's denial plan (TM) 1.GF 2.RB 3.Janitor GF is there because it's powerful. RB and janitor are there because as soon as there are 2 rb claims or janitor is used you know the guy in that position is mafia. Also there is only 1 rb'er (besides jailer) so denying mafia rb makes claiming later much more powerful. Every guy after that picks what ever focusing on roles that are great for both sides or are extremely good for town first (kp/protection/investigation). I like this but I would swap CPR doc for GF at number 1. As toad is pointing out, CPR doc is way too powerful to have as scum (or SK). In fact I would make it so that #2 is required to RB the CPR doc as a failsafe until we decide it's really necessary to use it as a vig. Then both would have to be scum for them to use their powers otherwise (because CPR doc can confirm he was roleblocked since I'm assuming those roleblocked are told so). Also, why are people scared of GF that people want to pick it #1? It doesn't even seem like a good role for scum to have given how many KP roles there are. Furthermore I don't think there's much point in relying on the information roles in a game with framers and roleblockers and all that. We'll probably do just as well with old-fashioned analysis rather than waiting for parity cop/tracker/bullet bill/etc claims. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote: I agree with the denial plan. @mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext. I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what. something like picks 1-4 = denial roles 5-10 = tier 1 roles 11-15 = tier 2 roles 16-20 = tier 3 roles whats everyones thoughts on that? mmm I think it's dangerous to have things be too organized after the top few spots. Both town and mafia (assuming everyone is competent) should have a good idea of what to pick based on where they are in the draft. I think it's stronger to increase the chances for overlapping picks and vanillas, because while a VT is worth less than a blue townie, a vanilla scum is worth far less than a blue scum (purple scum?) since scum can coordinate. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Why you should pick 1 (or maybe 2) as your second number: You want to have the lowest most unique first number. If you’re in a group of one, then it doesn’t matter what your second number is. But you don’t know that going in. So there are a number of possibilities. You could end up in a group of two (fine), a group of three (ok), or a group of four (not so good). I won’t discuss group of four because while it can and will happen, by that point you’re going to be in the back half of the pack no matter what your second number is and will be picking from the less important roles. These are the possibilities you face (your pick in blue: Group of one: [n,w] Group of two: [n,w] , [n,x] Group of three: [n,w] , [n,x] , [n,y] So what do you pick? Let’s start with group of two possibilities where you pick 1. In bold is the total number of each case possible. + Show Spoiler + [n,1] , [n,1] (1) [n,1] , [n,1] (1) [n,1] , [n,x where x > 1] (19) Total possibilities: 21 First – 20/21 Second – 1/21 What if you pick 2 in a group of two? This is obviously bad: + Show Spoiler + [n,1] , [n,2] (1) [n,2] , [n,2] (1) [n,2] , [n,2] (1) [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] (18) Total possibilities: 21 First – 19/21 Second – 2/21 Ok group of three where you pick 1: + Show Spoiler + [n,1] , [n,1], [n,1] (2) [n,1], [n,1], [n,1] (2) [n,1] , [n,1] , [n,1] (2) [n,x where x > 1] , [n,1], [n,1] (19) [n,x where x > 1] , [n,1] , [n,1] (19) [n,1] , [n,x where x > 1] , [n,x where x > 1] (19) [n,2] , [n,x where x >1] , [n,y where y > x] (153) Total possibilities: 216 First – 174/216 Second – 21/216 Third – 21/216 Group of three where you pick 2: + Show Spoiler + [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,2], [n,2] (19) [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (19) [n,2] , [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,x where x is not 2] (19) [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] , [n,y where y > x] (136) [n,1] , [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] (17) [n,2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (2) [n,2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (2) [n,2, [n,2] , [n,2] (2) Total possibilities: 216 First – 157/216 Second – 38/216 Third – 21/216 Total of both group of 2 and group of 3: Picking 1: First - 194/237 Second – 22/237 Third – 21/237 Picking 2: First – 176/237 Second – 40/237 Third – 21/237 So what? You might ask why show all possible combinations. What if you’re playing against people picking only 1 or 2 as their second number? Ok, let’s assume you pick 1 against them. Here’s your possible outcomes for groups of one to three: + Show Spoiler + Only the second digit is shown for clarity. Commas delimit between separate players’ second number picks. Your pick is in bold: Group of one: [1] Group of two: [1,1] [1,1] [1,2] Group of three: [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,2,2] [1,2,2] [2,1,1] [2,1,1] Basically, you get first 7 times, second 4 times, and third 3 times. Now what if you pick 2? Same thing: + Show Spoiler + Group of one: [2] Group of two: [2,2] [2,2] [1,2] Group of three: [1,2,2] [1,2,2 [2,1,1] [2,1,1] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] You get first in your group 6 times, second 5 times, and third 3 times. Note that in this analysis, this compares across three group sizes. If you think only about a group of two, picking 1 gets first place 2/3 times, while picking 2 gets first only 1/3 times. In other words, picking 2 only has a real chance of doing you any good if you’re pretty sure that you’ll be in a group of three. Caveat: In the end, it should be clear to everyone that most of what’s posted above doesn’t matter too much for the overall draft order. The uniqueness of the first number is what matters there – the lowest unique number picks first. But if you assume that people will attempt to maximize uniqueness for this reason and avoid picking numbers that they think might put them in groups of three, then it basically only makes sense to pick 1 as your second number. The only real scenario for picking 2 as a second number is if you’re interested in dealing with the inevitability of someone picking [1,1], since you might assume that 1s might end up in a group of three. Someone will pick [1,1], and it almost forces at least one, possibly two people to pick [1,1] as you can’t know if that person is town or scum (both sides have incentive to get first pick, perhaps slightly more so for town). | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:36 Toadesstern wrote: I think the CPR is way more dangerous than the GF. Yes I agree the GF is strong but it's nowhere near as strong as a CPR in the hands of a SK or mafia. If we tell people that #1 picks CPR that's 15/20 (75%) chance that it's going to be a townie. If we tell people that #5 picks CPR that's a 19,36 % Chance that a townie ends up with the CPR role if my windows-calculator is correct (15/20 * 14/19 * 13/18 * 12/17 * 11/16) which means we're screwed. In short do no like The reason I do not like it is because of what I posted pregame: + Show Spoiler [click me!] + On May 09 2012 05:31 Toadesstern wrote: Just a little example for your: Mafia team: 3 (CPR + vig + RB/framer/GF/janitor) + 1 traitor = 4 => Town team = 11 people. So it's 11 vs 4 let's say town mislynches d1, which is not unlikely at all => 10vs 4 => nightphase with 3 KP => 7vs 4 and it's lylo after a single cycle. Who cares about what happens 3 cycles after the game started when you win in 2 cycles if you manage to not shoot into protection / vets / hider. Edit: And I'm not saying that because I think it's imba, it's more about that people should think about the set-up because mafia will most likely have an awesome plan if they're in irc or in a Mafia QT argueing about what's the best thing to do given the drafts. Mafia is probably not going to srew up the picks imo, but I could see townies screwing up the picks. That's why I am talking about those things because I think we need to be on an equal stage to start the game or it's instant gg :p There's some roles that are really nasty for both town and mafia and I think CPR is something mafia should never lay there hands on if town wants a chance. GF is pretty awesome as well given the changes and so is a pardoner if you use it the right way. Edit2: Oh and that's talking about a 3 vs 12 set-up. I don't actually know if it's going to be something like that. Usually a mini is 12 players and 3v9 or something like that, so maybe it's even a 4v11 setup, who knows :p Yes it gets a little better because the game got a little big better, so mafia KP was kind of nerfed because it did not increase while the townie number did. However we now got a SK with one KP as well. Yeah that guy might end up hitting mafia as well but I'd rather not count on that to be true and win myself. So in short: I don't think the situation got better and it's still as dangerous as it was pregame. I'd like to make it either: #1 Pick CPR #2 Pick CPR or #1 Pick CPR #2 Pick RB and let him RB the CPR. Personally I agree that the GF is a lot stronger than the usual GF but I don't think it could end up gamebreaking like the CPR will if it gets into SK / mafia hands. Same about janitor / RB / framer) so I do not think we need to deny those. If someone is not sure what to pick, go ahead and pick one of those. A one-time vengeful GF is not going to hurt town THAT much even if noone denies it that we need it gone no matter what. I think a nice townie blue role is about as good as someone picking GF / Janitor to deny mafia taht role because those are 1 hit only and RB / Framer are still really good for mafia but nothing like the other roles that were mentioned. So if someone is not sure if he really should pick a strong blue role pick one of those. I agree with this wholeheartedly. CPR doc is way stronger for mafia than GF. GF is one shot, maybe. CPR doc is an extra KP every night. I'm not even sure scum team picks GF when they could pick day vig, which would essentially be the same thing to them (except kill someone right before they're lynched - in fact if the vote were close enough it might even save the scum day vig, allowing for an extra vote the next day). | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
you seem very reluctant on assigning it, when the kp role you proposed assigning (GF) is only one kp. And GF is probably not even better than the other one kp roles (day vig, angry vig, JOAT) nor the two kp role (vig) from a scum point of view. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
I'd prefer something like 1.CPR 2.CPR 3.Janitor After that I agree that KP roles should be high on everyone's list that ends up near the top. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
This risk.nuke thing is very interesting. I didn't interact much with him in space ship - sandroba was he a pretty hard-headed player that didn't like changing his mind and always trusted his own opinions over others? I view him as having hotshot townie syndrome at the moment. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 17 2012 03:23 Snarfs wrote: Here's something that should be a safe question for some of the more experienced PYPers: Which VTs should claim their choice? Since I'm fairly low on the queue, there's a good chance that my pick does not go through. Of the possible roles, which should I claim if I picked one and it didn't work? I'm thinking at least all the ones listed under "Mafia" roles, but any others? I'm not an experienced PYPer by any means but I'll go ahead and point out the obvious that just because a "mafia" role was picked doesn't mean that mafia has that role of course. It could mean that or it could mean that someone denied it. I also think VTs should be cautious about claiming that they bounced. In a game where there are only one or two VTs, it doesn't really matter and in fact might even be useful. In a game with a lot of VTs, then if all of them claim it makes the mafia's decision about who to kill at night a lot easier. I would only claim VT if I had a specific and productive way of applying the information that gave me. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 17 2012 04:20 Toadesstern wrote: OH and @slOosh please flip a coin or true-randomize it somehow like that. Please don't get influenced by this risk-shit and think that you have to choose Janitor know that risk has told people that he might not choose Janitor. It is very much possible (although incredibly paranoid^^) that that is the goal for mafia right now. So please, pick randomely no matter what What? Where is this post coming from - what does sloosh have to do with the janitor pick? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Mattchew to be scum makes little sense. That's the scum team wasting two roles and one member to get an unknown CPR doc and pray that when Mattchew is still alive at the end no one gets suspicious. Mattchew being sk also makes little sense. There are better roles for sk to pick, eg politician, that have late game potential, which is where the sk has to win after all. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
(I'm trying to account for the possibility that Nuke picked janitor thinking he had convinced everyone he wasn't going to, and then got fucked by sentinel saying that he would pick janitor) Funny thing is that if I were scum in nuke's position, I would have taken vigilante straight up no question. you had already told people that you weren't going to take janitor - now you get to take vig. and mafia has 3 potential KP right off the bat - they might not even need to use the CPR doc right away if they're scared of trackers or roleblocks. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 16 2012 20:59 deconduo wrote: We had agreed on a plan. There was plenty of opportunity to voice any objections to it before the draft list was revealed. It was also mentioned that there would be no changing after the draft was revealed. And yet you come out of nowhere saying you might not follow the plan, and you give no reasoning behind it. It looks a lot like a scum wanting to be able to use janitor without having any consequences. 'Oh janitor was used? I didn't like the plan so I didn't take it, it wasn't me.' Might be because my initial plan was to take GF, when I figured it was a bit stronger than it actually is. However its pretty obvious that I abandoned that plan ages ago, and agreed with the current one. No idea why he would bring it up again now. On May 17 2012 01:11 deconduo wrote: Yeah and so the only reasons for risk not to want the plan to succeed are: -He's town that wants to take traitor safely -He's scum that wants to be able to use janitor without getting lynched -He's SK that wants a better role than janitor On May 15 2012 01:40 deconduo wrote: Oh yeah, I forgot about dropping roles down. I'll try to think of a way to compensate for that, maybe a check on me first night? Though with a possible framer as well it gets annoying. My hope was to have the framer as the only possible way for scum to fuck with DT checks. On May 16 2012 07:20 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Dammit didn't think that through. Well there's another point for the town rolecop. Next question - Why would Hider be an important defensive role? From my point of view it seems like an information role or a role that defends others would be much more important. The only use I could see for Hider is an active/veteran player being able to voice his opinions without getting shot. Worth noting that deconduo gives the exact scum reasoning for why you would say you're not going to take janitor when in fact you do. Could mean that this plan was already afoot, although pointing out in the open like that is somewhat brazen. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 17 2012 20:28 zelblade wrote: First off regarding the decundo shot. I agree with a few others who have already stated so - this shot, whilst actually managing to luck into scum, actually had terrible grounds. I can easily see a whole host or reasons why a mafia team wouldnt have any of their members pick [1,1], one of them mainly being that positions 1,2,3 suck for scum this game unless they have something like both positions 1 and 3, allowing them to drop the role somewhere. Copy Cat definately needs to claim asap if hes town, in which case mattchew is probably town (though theres still the vauge possibility that scum failed on a copy cat pick, I dont see a scum mattchew going through with his shot in that case). I highly doubt hes SK though considering that day vig sucks for SK. Anyway, moving on, Janitor needs to claim. I am relatively sure there has been some shenanigans occuring at the top. Qatol's case on Paqman is interesting. To be honest - I think that paqman's reasonings for his posting are actually pretty decent. I can understand what he means by not being able to contribute much due to fact that plans were discussed during his absense - this is actually similar for me - I was in school for most of the draft phase, and by the time I got back there wasnt much to do other than give opinions on the plan. Explain this. You made this statement before 1) Marv claimed that he wasn't Janitor 2) Marv claimed that he did not RNG between Janitor and CPR and in fact picked something else 3) Before Sentinel claimed that he did not get Janitor 4) Before Risk.nuke said he wasn't Janitor Essentially, before all the "shenanigans". How are you so prescient? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 16 2012 20:59 deconduo wrote: We had agreed on a plan. There was plenty of opportunity to voice any objections to it before the draft list was revealed. It was also mentioned that there would be no changing after the draft was revealed. And yet you come out of nowhere saying you might not follow the plan, and you give no reasoning behind it. It looks a lot like a scum wanting to be able to use janitor without having any consequences. 'Oh janitor was used? I didn't like the plan so I didn't take it, it wasn't me.' Might be because my initial plan was to take GF, when I figured it was a bit stronger than it actually is. However its pretty obvious that I abandoned that plan ages ago, and agreed with the current one. No idea why he would bring it up again now. Also note that he was talking to risk.nuke when he made the comment I bolded. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
I've been thinking all along that the most logical possibility is that Marv is scum. He was the scummiest behaviorally before all this went down anyway for sure (lotsa one liners, tendency to jump to spamming up the thread - see his exchances with risk.nuke prior to daybreak). Let me now show you The Marvellosity Hypothesis Let us first examine the scum's reason for taking Janitor but saying they didn't. We shall hear from the horse's mouth itself, Deconduo: On May 16 2012 20:59 deconduo wrote: We had agreed on a plan. There was plenty of opportunity to voice any objections to it before the draft list was revealed. It was also mentioned that there would be no changing after the draft was revealed. And yet you come out of nowhere saying you might not follow the plan, and you give no reasoning behind it. It looks a lot like a scum wanting to be able to use janitor without having any consequences. 'Oh janitor was used? I didn't like the plan so I didn't take it, it wasn't me.' Might be because my initial plan was to take GF, when I figured it was a bit stronger than it actually is. However its pretty obvious that I abandoned that plan ages ago, and agreed with the current one. No idea why he would bring it up again now. To understand what's going on it's necessary to examine the sequence of events. 1) Draft order resolves, and scum team gets CPR doctor at #1. This is great. They have no reason to buck the plan. Then, 2) Risk.nuke comes in going crazy, saying he will not follow the plan. I actually think that his behavior gives mafia the idea to do it as well. 3) Deconduo Publicly scolds risk.nuke for his avoidance of the plan. Does a scummate really call a scummate scummy for something they know that the other guy is going to do? REALLY? No. What makes more sense is that the scum team was thinking of doing the same thing as risk (taking janitor but saying they didn't) but what they were really setting up for is laying the blame at risk's feet when the janitor power was used. 4) Marv states that he is going to RNG between the two, looking for all intents and purposes like he is following the plan. Fine. 5) Sentinel says "I will pick Janitor but I'd rather Risk complied, please comply risk!" He never states after that that for sure he will pick Janitor. If he is town, then scumteam doesn't actually know that he in fact will do so. 6) Risk picks his role. For the sake of argument, let's assume he picks vigilante. Because he probably did and everyone's already thinking it so I doubt I'm clueing in the scumteam. 7) Zelblade picks his role. Zel is 6th - and for whatever reason he also picks vigilante. I actually have thought that behaviorally zelblade is the scummiest guy here and if he picked vig at the 6 spot I think it would be consistent with a risky scum move though not necessarily indicative of one. 8) Zelblade posts that "there have been some shenanigans at the top" and therefore that "the janitor needs to claim". This is before ANY of the other claims against Janitor have been made. He knows that something fishy is going on because he picked a role that bounced - why he is certain his bounce is related to the janitor choice and not just off sentinel is something that needs to be carefully considered. 9) Immediately after zelblade's post, Marv states "I am not Janitor" 10) Zelblade asks for confirmation, giving Marv the opportunity to state that he did not pick either CPR or Janitor, but thought that by saying he would he would keep the players above him in line. Ok, fine. This could be true for town, and it also fits the requirements of what deconduo has already told us: take janitor but say you didn't. He probably should have claimed CPR - VT if he's scum, as zelblade sets him up to do, but he doesn't. 11) Sentinel then comes in an says "I did not get Janitor". If he is scum - why??? Why does he draw attention to himself like this? Here's the case for it, if I really think about it - he thought he was forced to say he picked Janitor based on what he had posted earlier, even though that post didn't make clear that he actually would do it. Therefore he felt he was forced into a lie. Why on earth does he lie that he tried for Janitor and didn't get it - I have no idea. This makes incredibly little sense. He should have lied that he took another role or tell the truth that he is Janitor. The scum team is already down one member at this point - by lying he's really hurting his team if he's scum. The other possibility of course is that he's not lying, and is town. 12) Risk.nuke confirms that he did not take Janitor. 13) Clusterfuck ensues. The real key here is events 2) and 3). If it's sentinel - why would the scum team be already showing that they had this idea, when they had no idea what Marv would do? Are they really saying "Oh, Risk isn't going to take Janitor - well maybe Sentinel can try for it." Sentinel could have just taken angry vigilante, or day vig (which is the same as GF), or any other great scum role, and avoided the possibility of hitting the wrong side of a 50/50 flip. If it's Risk.nuke, then why is he so adamant and cocksure about defying the plan? Why is Deconduo calling attention to him about it, literally spelling out why the plan is scummy? That's too silly if risk is scum - then risk uses janitor later and deconduo has already planted the seed that he's scum? Doesn't make sense. If it's Marv, then it actually makes some sense - he was #3, and suddenly risk is saying he's not going to pick janitor. Great! Now he can pick it. But he still needs to eventually come up with a lie that says that he didn't pick it. This is the weakest part of this case, because I think his optimal lie is what zelblade suggested to him: CPR - VT. But what he went with wasn't that bad either. Suddenly sentinel comes along and fucks everything up by saying that he might pick janitor too - and then he does and claims it. I think if Marv knew that this was for sure going to happen, he would have claimed CPR - VT. But he probably figured that Sentinel didn't pick Janitor at all, which would lead everyone to believe it had slipped lower in the cracks or hadn't been picked at all. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:20 marvellosity wrote: talis - why would I think Sentinel wouldn't pick janitor? Because his post didn't say that he would - he said he was ok with it, but would rather risk cooperated. He never committed. It's also possible that you had already picked at that point. I still would like to clarify this point: Were players allowed to change their rolepicks up to the deadline? Or was it only one shot and no do-overs? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:20 marvellosity wrote: talis - why would I think Sentinel wouldn't pick janitor? In addition, you and deconduo had already been working together to set Risk.nuke up to take the fall for this, given how both of you attacked him during the rolepicking phase. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
2 scum are dead I think, maybe even until there's only 1 scum left. Even if your stab misses scum it would still help town by eliminating a possibility and help you by getting rid of a good role no matter what. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Mason at number three would be a bad pick for scum but I kinda think it would be a bad pick for town as well. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
If he picked vigilante and bounced with someone, then, at the time he made his post, it could have been either risk, marv, or sentinel. But if he picked Janitor - wouldn't he have said so by now??? And why on earth would a town zelblade go for janitor at spot 6. And why, if he were scum, would a risk.nuke take janitor as town and then lie about it this vehemently for this long? It seems more likely that he took non-Janitor, which means risk isn't Janitor, which means it's sentinel as traitor or marv as scum even though that's looking really far-fetched at the moment. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
(assuming you're town) | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
As an aside, this game is really fun right now :-) | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
:-) | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
cheers! | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Great well that clears that up and very parsimoniously too. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
deconduo [1,1] - Mafia CPR doc (DayVigged by Mattchew) risk.nuke [4,2] - Vigilante marvellosity [7,2] - Mason [UoN]Sentinel [9,1] - Mafia Jack of All Trades (Lynched Day One) Mattchew [11,x] - Day Vigilante zelblade [12,x] - Vanilla Townie (Picked JoAT) Bluelightz [13,x] talismania [15,1] Misder [2,2] PaqMan [2,2] slOosh [10,x] Toadesstern [10,10] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Barundar [3,1] Zephirdd [3,2] hiro protagonist [3,x] Palmar [5,1] - Pardoner Snarfs [5,1] Qatol [5,1] sandroba [5,1] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Probulous - Vanilla Townie (Modkilled) Bolded players voted for Risk.nuke, the italicized players voted for Sentinel. From looking at the numbers I'm starting to think that the scum team wasn't smart enough to deliberately clash with each other. It's also telling that the fate of sentinel wasn't sealed until way late in the day, so scum probably wasn't bussing him early. Or maybe they were? I don't want to assume that they're acting logically any more after what sentinel did haha. But looking at the list of italicized players, I think we can move Mattchew to the end of the possible scum list because he shot deconduo. For zelblade to be scum, he would have to making a "cut your losses" move which would actually be pretty brilliant of him in that position - but rather farfetched seeing as to how he would have had to set it up way far in advance... yeah he's at the end of the list of scum possibilities too. Toad I think got his mind tangled in knots yesterday and I don't really think he's scum. Maybe. Hiro Protagonist has been posting exactly like a young townie. His posts are notably unfiltered. Behaviorally then I think townie. Zephirdd, if scum, deserves an oscar for his on the spot reaction to mattchew's dayvig post. I don't really see a scum pulling that off, but maybe. (Would scum be rushing to make a post seeing matt's dayvig thing? Or sitting back going "oh shit"?) that leaves Paqman and Palmar Both deserve extreme consideration tomorrow. Paqman because he got himself kind of entangled in the sentinel mess trying to explain himself and his vote reasoning, and for just being generally scummy as qatol has shown. Palmar because he played yesterday like he flew too close to the sun with "I'm so ballsy I'm out in the open as scum" tactics. Also the guy took a role that's really only ever going to be useful to scum. And then he tried to say he would definitely use it on sentinel. Then he said he was actually going to use it on sentinel. Then he changed his mind. The only problem with him being scum is that ironically his best move in that case probably would have been to leave his pardon on sentinel (zelblade had not claimed yet when he announced he wasn't going to go through with it). Of course, there could be a scum (but I doubt two) in the bolded players. Probably someone who voted earlier rather than later for sentinel when it wasn't even clear there would be a lynch. But for now I think focusing on the italicized player is more productive. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Risk if you're going to shoot anyone, it should be palmar or paqman. I would not be opposed to seeing either of them flip as soon as possible. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Sandroba was vote 8 or so on sentinel which doesnt really make sense to me if he's scum. He could just as easily gone for risk at that point rather than put his teammate who gets to use a kp if he survives the day so close to being lynched. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Sentinel was joat and had a kp. Surely they would want to preserve that and waste the day two lynch as well. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 20 2012 07:13 hiro protagonist wrote: One small corection to that vote list: talismania switched from marvellosity to sent. In fact, he was the hammer, as without him, there would not have been a majority. Im gonna have to reiterate what palmar said; I did not think scum do something like what sent did. He shot himself in the foot for no reason... well, whatever. I think we should lynch PacMan next, I'm not sure if I was the actual hammer - I think I was 9 and marv was 10. Regardless the vote list is also reflected in my earlier post, where the italicized players voted sentinel and the bolded ones voted risk.nuke. On the idea that a smart player on the scum team wouldn't let sentinel do what he did yadda yadda that's floating around - does anyone really think sentinel consulted the team before doing it? I'm almost positive he just got flustered about saying he might pick janitor and then ended up tripping over his own shoelaces before the scumteam could tell him that it was o.k. to just wear sandals. Sorry for that analogy >_> | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 07 2012 13:10 zelblade wrote: Happy birthday qatol! The original plan was to surrender once sk died but after zeph rb'd risk and palmar looked like he was getting modkilled decided to just give it a go. Outing sentinel wasn't intentional I didn't think that he was going to claim he took janitor. And if you look closely snarfs was the one who instigated and pushed the who is janitor thing, and I felt that it was somewhat likely that claims would have gone out either way and wasting a day to get some attention off paqman wasn't a bad idea =/ The mass claim wasnt a good plan for town, but It was difficult to know at that time considering that no one thought I was scum yet. I needed to find bullet bill and cop ASAP because the number of confIrmed innocents was getting way too high and I couldn't afford any more. Guess it did catch sk and zeph though. Yeah no one realized that you didn't intend to out sentinel. You didn't even comment on the situation until I forced you to, after I caught you out for your "there has been some shenanigans in the top three" statement. And then you didn't claim your pick until after the lynch was settled. People just forgot this later in the game :-( Zephirdd I can't believe I saved you! I thought there was no way that two scum would be dying N1. Bah. Also chaoser didn't tell me I was dying, hence the fact that I didn't reveal I was the witch and all that. Anyway, it was a fun D0 - D1 at least! | ||
| ||
