EPTPick Your Power: Redux
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 09 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote: Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. If you're mafia and pick CPR as pick 1, then you will draw a lot of fire if you're still alive and the kp has been 2+ for three nights in a row or something like that. Also dangerous because #1 pick is likely to be checked by some role or the other. Probably still worth it, but not without its drawbacks. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
are pregame announcements allowed? If so I'll totally announce what my number picks would be because I will pick the same regardless of alignment. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Are we waiting on foolishness' dis/approval of an expanded game? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
[6,9] [6,20] [1,1] [1,1] And they were ranked as listed above. This doesn't make sense to me from reading how the rules state the draft picks are resolved. My understanding is first you'd pick the 1s, those two would bump to the back. Then the sixes - those two bump behind the ones. Then it's as if because the second digits matched between the ones, they got bumped all the way behind the sixes, when I think it makes more sense for them to retain their position relative to the sixes, but get randomized within those spots, making the order: [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] It comes down to this statement in the rules: "In the event players picked the same 2 numbers I will once again reset them to the back of the queue(for the order they are in). " What does "for the order they are in" actually mean here? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
[19,19] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] algorithm as posted in the op + Show Spoiler + First digit - start with the 1s. Oh no there's two of them, back of the pack. [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] Then we look for 2s. None of them. Then 3s and so on til sixes. Oh there's two of them. Back to the back of the pack. [19,19] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] And then we look at 7s. Oh wow so many. Back to the end of the line. [19,19] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] Now... we look at second digits within the groups. Oh no two 1s, back to the back of the entire pack. [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,2] [7,2] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] Continuing on the rest of the way. 6 group - nope both are unique and ordered correctly no problem. 7 group - whoa there we got two 7,2s - back to the back of the pack, leaving the order as [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] [7,2] [7,2] ? Just doesn't look right to me, but that's how I read the rules as written. Reading how it's been applied in actuality though (PYP insane, for example), I think all the 7s would end up at the bottom because they are the least unique first digit group, but that rule isn't expressly written. I still think it would be best if it went uniques ranked from lowest to highest groups ranked by first digit from lowest to highest within groups, ranked by second digit lowest to highest. so that even if there were five [1,1]s they all come before two [2,1]s | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
ordered first by number of players clashing and then numerically by first number. My problem is that this double-ranking is NOT in the listed rules (specifically the part about the number of players clashing). I guess the only point from all of this is that GM just needs to spell out completely explicitly what algorithm he will be using so that there is no confusion. Gonzaw, you're exactly right. I thought it was stupid for anyone to pick anything but 1 from my reading of the rules the first time. The only reason you pick 2 as a second number is if you're sure that two other people are both picking the same first number, meaning the only reason you'd ever pick 20 as second number is if there were 39 people in the game and you were sure they were all picking the same first number. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
By the way, I still don't understand the need for a second number at all. I think we could have a perfectly good game without it and flips for tiebreaker instead. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 15 2012 01:37 sandroba wrote: Sandroba's denial plan (TM) 1.GF 2.RB 3.Janitor GF is there because it's powerful. RB and janitor are there because as soon as there are 2 rb claims or janitor is used you know the guy in that position is mafia. Also there is only 1 rb'er (besides jailer) so denying mafia rb makes claiming later much more powerful. Every guy after that picks what ever focusing on roles that are great for both sides or are extremely good for town first (kp/protection/investigation). I like this but I would swap CPR doc for GF at number 1. As toad is pointing out, CPR doc is way too powerful to have as scum (or SK). In fact I would make it so that #2 is required to RB the CPR doc as a failsafe until we decide it's really necessary to use it as a vig. Then both would have to be scum for them to use their powers otherwise (because CPR doc can confirm he was roleblocked since I'm assuming those roleblocked are told so). Also, why are people scared of GF that people want to pick it #1? It doesn't even seem like a good role for scum to have given how many KP roles there are. Furthermore I don't think there's much point in relying on the information roles in a game with framers and roleblockers and all that. We'll probably do just as well with old-fashioned analysis rather than waiting for parity cop/tracker/bullet bill/etc claims. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote: I agree with the denial plan. @mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext. I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what. something like picks 1-4 = denial roles 5-10 = tier 1 roles 11-15 = tier 2 roles 16-20 = tier 3 roles whats everyones thoughts on that? mmm I think it's dangerous to have things be too organized after the top few spots. Both town and mafia (assuming everyone is competent) should have a good idea of what to pick based on where they are in the draft. I think it's stronger to increase the chances for overlapping picks and vanillas, because while a VT is worth less than a blue townie, a vanilla scum is worth far less than a blue scum (purple scum?) since scum can coordinate. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Why you should pick 1 (or maybe 2) as your second number: You want to have the lowest most unique first number. If you’re in a group of one, then it doesn’t matter what your second number is. But you don’t know that going in. So there are a number of possibilities. You could end up in a group of two (fine), a group of three (ok), or a group of four (not so good). I won’t discuss group of four because while it can and will happen, by that point you’re going to be in the back half of the pack no matter what your second number is and will be picking from the less important roles. These are the possibilities you face (your pick in blue: Group of one: [n,w] Group of two: [n,w] , [n,x] Group of three: [n,w] , [n,x] , [n,y] So what do you pick? Let’s start with group of two possibilities where you pick 1. In bold is the total number of each case possible. + Show Spoiler + [n,1] , [n,1] (1) [n,1] , [n,1] (1) [n,1] , [n,x where x > 1] (19) Total possibilities: 21 First – 20/21 Second – 1/21 What if you pick 2 in a group of two? This is obviously bad: + Show Spoiler + [n,1] , [n,2] (1) [n,2] , [n,2] (1) [n,2] , [n,2] (1) [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] (18) Total possibilities: 21 First – 19/21 Second – 2/21 Ok group of three where you pick 1: + Show Spoiler + [n,1] , [n,1], [n,1] (2) [n,1], [n,1], [n,1] (2) [n,1] , [n,1] , [n,1] (2) [n,x where x > 1] , [n,1], [n,1] (19) [n,x where x > 1] , [n,1] , [n,1] (19) [n,1] , [n,x where x > 1] , [n,x where x > 1] (19) [n,2] , [n,x where x >1] , [n,y where y > x] (153) Total possibilities: 216 First – 174/216 Second – 21/216 Third – 21/216 Group of three where you pick 2: + Show Spoiler + [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,2], [n,2] (19) [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (19) [n,2] , [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,x where x is not 2] (19) [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] , [n,y where y > x] (136) [n,1] , [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] (17) [n,2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (2) [n,2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (2) [n,2, [n,2] , [n,2] (2) Total possibilities: 216 First – 157/216 Second – 38/216 Third – 21/216 Total of both group of 2 and group of 3: Picking 1: First - 194/237 Second – 22/237 Third – 21/237 Picking 2: First – 176/237 Second – 40/237 Third – 21/237 So what? You might ask why show all possible combinations. What if you’re playing against people picking only 1 or 2 as their second number? Ok, let’s assume you pick 1 against them. Here’s your possible outcomes for groups of one to three: + Show Spoiler + Only the second digit is shown for clarity. Commas delimit between separate players’ second number picks. Your pick is in bold: Group of one: [1] Group of two: [1,1] [1,1] [1,2] Group of three: [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,1,1] [1,2,2] [1,2,2] [2,1,1] [2,1,1] Basically, you get first 7 times, second 4 times, and third 3 times. Now what if you pick 2? Same thing: + Show Spoiler + Group of one: [2] Group of two: [2,2] [2,2] [1,2] Group of three: [1,2,2] [1,2,2 [2,1,1] [2,1,1] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] [2,2,2] You get first in your group 6 times, second 5 times, and third 3 times. Note that in this analysis, this compares across three group sizes. If you think only about a group of two, picking 1 gets first place 2/3 times, while picking 2 gets first only 1/3 times. In other words, picking 2 only has a real chance of doing you any good if you’re pretty sure that you’ll be in a group of three. Caveat: In the end, it should be clear to everyone that most of what’s posted above doesn’t matter too much for the overall draft order. The uniqueness of the first number is what matters there – the lowest unique number picks first. But if you assume that people will attempt to maximize uniqueness for this reason and avoid picking numbers that they think might put them in groups of three, then it basically only makes sense to pick 1 as your second number. The only real scenario for picking 2 as a second number is if you’re interested in dealing with the inevitability of someone picking [1,1], since you might assume that 1s might end up in a group of three. Someone will pick [1,1], and it almost forces at least one, possibly two people to pick [1,1] as you can’t know if that person is town or scum (both sides have incentive to get first pick, perhaps slightly more so for town). | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:36 Toadesstern wrote: I think the CPR is way more dangerous than the GF. Yes I agree the GF is strong but it's nowhere near as strong as a CPR in the hands of a SK or mafia. If we tell people that #1 picks CPR that's 15/20 (75%) chance that it's going to be a townie. If we tell people that #5 picks CPR that's a 19,36 % Chance that a townie ends up with the CPR role if my windows-calculator is correct (15/20 * 14/19 * 13/18 * 12/17 * 11/16) which means we're screwed. In short do no like The reason I do not like it is because of what I posted pregame: + Show Spoiler [click me!] + On May 09 2012 05:31 Toadesstern wrote: Just a little example for your: Mafia team: 3 (CPR + vig + RB/framer/GF/janitor) + 1 traitor = 4 => Town team = 11 people. So it's 11 vs 4 let's say town mislynches d1, which is not unlikely at all => 10vs 4 => nightphase with 3 KP => 7vs 4 and it's lylo after a single cycle. Who cares about what happens 3 cycles after the game started when you win in 2 cycles if you manage to not shoot into protection / vets / hider. Edit: And I'm not saying that because I think it's imba, it's more about that people should think about the set-up because mafia will most likely have an awesome plan if they're in irc or in a Mafia QT argueing about what's the best thing to do given the drafts. Mafia is probably not going to srew up the picks imo, but I could see townies screwing up the picks. That's why I am talking about those things because I think we need to be on an equal stage to start the game or it's instant gg :p There's some roles that are really nasty for both town and mafia and I think CPR is something mafia should never lay there hands on if town wants a chance. GF is pretty awesome as well given the changes and so is a pardoner if you use it the right way. Edit2: Oh and that's talking about a 3 vs 12 set-up. I don't actually know if it's going to be something like that. Usually a mini is 12 players and 3v9 or something like that, so maybe it's even a 4v11 setup, who knows :p Yes it gets a little better because the game got a little big better, so mafia KP was kind of nerfed because it did not increase while the townie number did. However we now got a SK with one KP as well. Yeah that guy might end up hitting mafia as well but I'd rather not count on that to be true and win myself. So in short: I don't think the situation got better and it's still as dangerous as it was pregame. I'd like to make it either: #1 Pick CPR #2 Pick CPR or #1 Pick CPR #2 Pick RB and let him RB the CPR. Personally I agree that the GF is a lot stronger than the usual GF but I don't think it could end up gamebreaking like the CPR will if it gets into SK / mafia hands. Same about janitor / RB / framer) so I do not think we need to deny those. If someone is not sure what to pick, go ahead and pick one of those. A one-time vengeful GF is not going to hurt town THAT much even if noone denies it that we need it gone no matter what. I think a nice townie blue role is about as good as someone picking GF / Janitor to deny mafia taht role because those are 1 hit only and RB / Framer are still really good for mafia but nothing like the other roles that were mentioned. So if someone is not sure if he really should pick a strong blue role pick one of those. I agree with this wholeheartedly. CPR doc is way stronger for mafia than GF. GF is one shot, maybe. CPR doc is an extra KP every night. I'm not even sure scum team picks GF when they could pick day vig, which would essentially be the same thing to them (except kill someone right before they're lynched - in fact if the vote were close enough it might even save the scum day vig, allowing for an extra vote the next day). | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
| ||
