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+ Show Spoiler [EBWOP] +On May 18 2012 08:32 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 08:22 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote:
I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? just to make it clear because apparently people (hint: marv) are not getting what I am talking about when I am not explaining it explicitly and while I usually do that on purpose it's 1:30 am right now for me, so no time for games. I was referring to this one: Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote:
I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. You are the guy who says "give me KP and I'll give you dead scum". You are the guy who thinks CPR doc is equally good in towns hand because it's an infinite bullet vig. Clearly you don't want a noob to take it but someone like you would be really good with a CPR. Clearly you know that you tend to die early a lot if you are town. Remember saying something along the lines of "I'm sick of getting shot n1 as town" when we hydraed? Your train of though is just way off. 1) You want CPR to shoot n1, because apparently you die early A LOT as townie and if you don't shoot n1 what's the point of infinite vig because you usually get shot as townie n1 or n2. 2) You don't want noobs to get the CPR (I hope) because noone wants another AC happening. 3) Yet you still say it's incredible powerful due to the fact that it's infinite bullets which is just not adding up considering what I just said. 4) And you get in here telling us that we should no lynch now because you are apparently not sure at all about people. What happened to the guy "give me CPR and I'll give you a dead mafia" down the road? What happened to "cpr is awesome for town as well", what's the reasoning behind thinking CPR is awesome for town. How is that guy town.
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On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote:
My suspicions on Bottom 10:
Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting.
Please, feel free to request me for more opinions.
vote Sandroba and you're fine :3
Reasoning has been given.
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On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.+ Show Spoiler +
Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?
Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?
Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?
Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch?
This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1.
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On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote:
@Toad and Qatol
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)?
A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them.
We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3.
On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote:
One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.
Which is not indicative of alignment, yet
This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.
1/3 is horribly bad... You don't lynch into people that have a 1/3 chance of flipping red.... If I would consider sandro to be 1/3 I wouldn't even have mentioned him
To address some points:
risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.
Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.
WAAAAT?!?!?! Yeah, let's lynch into a green, shall we?
@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.
Yes you are. You say so yourself right below this
My scum rank for the three are:
1. Sentinel
2. risk.nuke
3. marvellosity
Awesome, you consider ALL three could possibly flip mafia? Wtf and you really consider lynching into them? That's not an educated guess. That's a straight rnd-lynch equal to the chances of a policy lynch hitting mafia
Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.
If I would consider Sandroba to have a chance of 1/3 to flip mafia I wouldn't even have mentioned him lol. 1/3 chance to flip mafia is HORRIBLY bad.
So no, lynching INTO one of those 3 WILL cause confusion. There's multiple people having multiple opinions and everything things someone else is the most likely townie in this constellation. If you can figure out 2 (!) of them are mafia FOR SURE (as in 85%+) fine, we lynch the 3rd guy. Unless that happens we don't lynch into them.
To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game.
Plus we get 0 information out of a Risk / marv / sent lynch because there's so many different opinions on that matter.
Why would you possibly want to lynch into something that has a 1/3 chance to flip mafia when you have an about 100% chance to know their alignment the next day. This is just beyond me.
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the last red part obviously was mafia = town. 5 am in the morning here and I'm sleepy...
But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far.
If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie.
So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies.
How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now
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Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched.
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Ok I'm really at a lose of word right now and I'm tired so one last try to get you people off those 3:
Consider my reads from C9++. That's what I had on d1 in C9++ #2
+ Show Spoiler [picture] +
Hinthint: Every town read was right. Mafia team ended up being VE + foru + Ace.
Here's my sheet considering those 3:
+ Show Spoiler [picture] +
Yes I'm that awesome now please just trust me for once.
Marv and Senti both are looking really townish and I REALLY doubt they have a chance to flip mafia right now.
Marv is ACTIVLY asking me ALL THE TIME what I am talking about when I am not explaining my thoughts. That looks a lot like a towny who's ACTIVLY trying to figure out what's going on in peoples head. That's one of the biggest town tells in the game. Could it be faked by a good mafia? Hell yeah, it's d1, but I have no reason to believe so yet.
Senti claimed VT who tried to pick Janitor. Think about the situation. Would a mafia claim that?
Both Risk and Marv claimed they are not janitor. If we somehow figure out they really aren't he is INSTA-BUSTED.
If he is mafia he shoveld his own grave with this action. Not today but d2 or d3 because if we find out about one of Risk / Marv being janitor (which is highly likely) he is insta-dead.
High risk of dying for mafia, about 0 gain. IF sent is mafia he went for a 1:1 trade with that statement. I am more than happy to take that trade, because we WILL figure that out soon enough without having to randomly lynch into one of those.
Risk is looking somewhat townish but he might as well be yellow. That's the one read I'm not sure about but I'm not willing to lynch into a yellow read either.
THE ONLY THING people are talking about are the lies. Liar doesn't mean mafia. I caught VE lieing in my first 30-man game. He claimed day-vig d1 in a game with an election and it was obvious to me that he was a liar and I was right about it. I came to the conclusion that he has to be a mafia because of that, which was completly bullshit.
He lied because he wanted to win the election for mayor because he knew his own alignment and thought a 100% proven town as mayor is better han a somewhat proven player who's a vet (VE wasn't considered a vet back then).
Long story short: Someone lying doesn't mean they have to be mafia all the time, especially if they have a good reason to lie about it and you ALWAYS have a good to lie about your role. ALWAYS.
I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy.
If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk.
I never like what he's doing.
About the same situation for marv.
Fancy conclusion:
I'm not even sure if one of them is mafia. Yeah it could be one of them is mafia but it's not bound to be like people said. If sent would have picked something else it would have been a whole other situation and THAT's why people started voting them because people misunderstood what sent said. Now that sent cleared those things up it should be clear that neither of them makes a good d1 lynch.
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On May 18 2012 13:12 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1. Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:
We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here.
You're getting an award for this. 1/4 is true random lynch, aka a lynch into someone without a second of a though done by a random generator. Yes 1/3 TRUELY are aweome odds...
And no I am telling you to only lynch people when you are AT LEAST (!!!!!) 50% certain they'll flip mafia. Everything else is a mislynch.
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On May 18 2012 13:38 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote:
One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.
This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.
To address some points:
risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.
Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.
@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.
My scum rank for the three are:
1. Sentinel
2. risk.nuke
3. marvellosity
Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.
To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations: 1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking. 2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended. I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him. ##Unvote: PaqMan
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
Just this one question: If sent is mafia, why did he take the risk to claim VT who tried to take janitor when both Risk and marv said they haven't picked janitor. That's an instant death for him if they really did that.
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On May 18 2012 13:47 Misder wrote:@Bluelightz As mentioned, one of them is lying about not having the Janitor role. Town cannot use Janitor in any way that would actually benefit town; therefore, only scum would have any reason to keep silent. @Toad Why did you want to assign Janitor pre-draft then? Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 12:02 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote:
@Toad and Qatol
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them. We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3. I also don't get how we get confirmed mafia. Janitor PMs during the night when he wants to clean up bodies. I don't understand why we want the Janitor to use his power at all.
mostly because it's a mess for noobs and people tend to freak out about it although it it's not really that strong.
It's more of a mental weapon than anything else.
IF we have a janitor'ed d1 lynch:
SENT is confirmed green because he told the truth about being a VT and knew there was a janitor.
Also we know that there there's a mafia between risk and marv. We either get to 50/50 by lynching into a townie to have one less tomorrow or we get into 50/50 automatically by wainting while lynching someone else who is ACTUALLY SCUMMY.
IF we don't have a jantor'ed d1 lynch:
We still have a blue roles who can check those guys and all 3 have things to look into that are confirming the other 2 guys but there's only 1 framer (if at all)
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If we have a janitor in action. A lynch d1 that is not flipped.
If we see a flip without role / alignment we know sent told the truth and one of risk / marv is a janitor =>
Therefore sent is confirmer town and one of risk & marv is pretty likely to be mafia. No townie would use the janitor power.
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I really shouldn't post at 7am, or at least check my spelling before pressing send... EBWOP
+ Show Spoiler [EBWOP] +On May 18 2012 14:04 Toadesstern wrote:
If we have a janitor in action. A lynch d1 that is not flipped.
If we see a flip without role / alignment we know sent told the truth and one of risk / marv is a janitor =>
Therefore sent is confirmed town and one of risk & marv is pretty likely to be mafia. No townie would use the janitor power.
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Next question for everyone: If you consider them all about equally scummy (1/3)
What are you going to do if the flip ends up being without alignment / role due to the janitor? Go on lynching the other 2 as well?
There's just a shitload of reasons not to lynch into those 3 until we're at least somewhat certain on who out of those 3 (if at all) is mafia.
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To get this straight:
If sent really is mafia he is a janitor, because he can't say he's a VT unless he knows neither risk nore marv picked janitor and he only knows that if he is a janitor himself or a mafiabuddy of his. So if sent really is mafia and he flipped without an alignment, what do you guys propose to do next? We have no idea abut what happend, 0 information (as I mentioned about 10 times) no idea wether we hit a mafia or hit a townie out of that constellation. Do we proceed to lynch Risk and Marv who are both town to go for savety or do we stop lynching them? Why do we stop? What's the point in only lynching one of them if one of the 3 is bound to be mafia (according to people...)? As you can see we would be forced to happily lynch into townies the next day even if a sent/risk/marv. lynch ended up being mafia
If Risk is mafia he is the janitor because he was first to pick after decunduo and got the role. That way sent and marv both told the truth. That way a lynch would be concealed. 0 Information about wether or not we actually hit a mafia or not. Same as above. Do we proceed to lynch the rest? If not, why do we stop? What's the point in lynching just one of them when we think one of them is bound to be mafia but don't know if we hit mafia last night. As you can see we would be forced to happily lynch into townies the next day even if a sent/risk/marv lynch ended up being mafia.
If Marv is mafia either Risk or Marv is the janitor. Both could be possible. If marv is the janitor same problems as above. If Risk is the janitor luckiest hit ever because that flip won't be conceiled.
Lynching any of those 3 forces us to lynch all 3 of them IF one of them really is mafia. If none of them are mafia people will be "come on, we hit a townie, now it's 50/50, better luck next time" and the one after that "well that was bad luck, but we at least now know that the last guy is mafia" and that's 3 mislynches in a row and game over.
If one of Risk / marv / sent is mafia lynching into them d1 is either pointless or it's game loosing depending on wether or not we keep on lynching until we hit mafia.
Hence my point to wait for d2 at least.
So again, d1 is not the time to lynch into those 3, even if you think they are mafia. It will cause massive confusion and it is bound to be a failure no matter what because we're either not told that we succeeded which will lead us into lynching 2 townies or we don't hit mafia at all for 3 cycles.
You don't lynch "it's either X or Y" or even "it's either X or Y or Z" when a janitor is alive because you don't get information so get the fuck off those 3 and get your votes onto Sandroba or for all I care on somebody else. I don't even care if we policy lynch someone else instead at this point of time because lynching one of these 3 is RETARDED.
So PLEASE don't lynch into one of them until you are really sure that ONE specific guy is mafia because only in THAT situation would be stop lynching with a conceiled flip.
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No player's role or alignment will be revealed upon death for that upcoming Day.
I read that as "no lynch information" oO
IF that's wrong screw everything I said and whatever. It's still bad to lynch one of them but we at least got a 33% chance to hit mafia...
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[gree]Hey GM, does "no information on day" mean no information about nightkills once day started or does it mean no information about deaths happening on day, aka the lynch?[/green]
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On May 18 2012 14:34 Toadesstern wrote:
Hey GM, does "no information on day" mean no information about nightkills once day started or does it mean no information about deaths happening on day, aka the lynch?
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I mean. A janitor that conceils night kills would be stupid. No need to deny that if that's the case.
We told townies not to use KP roles early on. So if it really is a night-kill janitor whatever, I'll vote sent to make a lynch happen but just to show you guys how wrong your are, so that we can carry on d2 and win this 
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Whatever. I had for the last 4 games as town in a row a 50-60% mafia hitting average on d1 reads. That's on average when talking about 3, 4 or 5 reads so that involves the lesser reads which means that if I'm town the good reads are usually way better than 60% of hitting mafia, but sure let's go for the 1/3 chance instead.
If none of those 3 come in here and explain the situation (aka who is the liar) prior to the lynch we at least have the chance to actually hit mafia because that way one is really bound to be mafia. And since it's too late to talk about this now because everyone's like "LYYYYNCH THAT" even if one of them is town noone will talk about it.
I'll be the one yelling "told ya" if he flips town, just so you know :p
Going to ignore the issue for now until the flip, not going to talk about it anymore. I tried everything I can and it failed :/
##vote sent
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On May 19 2012 01:06 zelblade wrote:
Also I find the fact that people are using "Sentinel is a VT anyway, if we lose him we lose the least" as a scummy and lousy reason for their vote. Apply actual analysis instead of basing it on the potential loss please.
Well I still disagree with the situation that we have to lynch into one of the three but at least that sentence is worth a fucking medal.
Finally I feel like I'm not the only one realizing what's going on (Palmar and Sandro know what's going on as well but Sandro somehow ended up saying "Sent CAN NOT BE MAFIA, therefore we lynch him" which I don't understand) but sadly you have to show people that they are wrong by lynching the mod-confirmed townie and shove his green head up their way and yell "SEE?!?! SEEE?!?!?!".
Sad thing that's how tl mafia works these days, so let us lynch the townie today and start off d2 anew with everyone realizing how stupid this lynch was. That way people might consider something else.
If people are willing to lynch into someone with the reason "at least he WILL (!) flip VT". not even giving him a good chance to flip mafia, there's really not much to say about this that could change peoples opinion. It's not getting any more obvious, ever, and we'll have to go through with this at this point...
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/tAFf3.png)
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