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Pick Your Power: Redux - Page 53

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
May 19 2012 15:52 GMT
#1041
Well like I said earlier palmar the fact that you didn't pardon him doesn't fit the model for you being scum. But at this point I'm a little leery of assuming scum is acting logically. Sentinel certainly didn't.

Sandroba was vote 8 or so on sentinel which doesnt really make sense to me if he's scum. He could just as easily gone for risk at that point rather than put his teammate who gets to use a kp if he survives the day so close to being lynched.
risk.nuke
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden2825 Posts
May 19 2012 17:11 GMT
#1042
First of all, just because Palmar nobly refrained from doing one bastard anti-town move it does not nullifiy his earlier anti-town moves. I know Palmar is smart. In Hammer Mafia when scum proposed their plan he like myself saw through it immidietly while the rest of the town were beeing played. He is a good player and knows a bad plan from a good plan. His actions during day 1 are just atrocious and add to that the Palmar-rule. If Palmar doesn't scumhunt day 1 he is scum.

And don't be fooled by people voting for sentinel. It's not that hard to understand that he would had died eventually and that scum might have chosen to get on him earlier to make themselves look better. I'm not saying it is so but you have to take that possibility into consideration. Noting is absolute.

Marv: I'm not going to shoot you. It's just something the morons got in their head because they are morons and either can't follow a simple train of thoughts or are just not caring to read my filter.

And where are you Sandroba?


Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
May 19 2012 17:15 GMT
#1043
I agree that there might be one scum voting for sentinel, but both?

Sentinel was joat and had a kp. Surely they would want to preserve that and waste the day two lynch as well.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 19 2012 17:19 GMT
#1044
On May 19 2012 18:54 risk.nuke wrote:
Sentinel going awol was the smartest thing he did. It made you guys to ignore how obvious he was the scum and caused 2 unnecessary roleclaims and he even nearly got away with it.

Palmar the only excuse I "might" had been able to buy from you would have been a "sorry I haven't cared about this game". Your neglect to have any input on any plans, lack of scumhunting continuous support for bad plans and dumb actions just isn't possible from town a perspective.

As much as I would love to kill palmar I think it's too complicated for me to do it when we don't know where the roles are. I think a better plan would be to say. Jailer, Roleblocker and Angry Vigilante should all go for him and see if they can manage to take him out.

With 2 scum in the upper draft dead and the current situation I'm thinking about if maybe it would be good to do an organized mass roleclaim. I'm thinking we start at the bottom of the draft with Sandroba and after he's posted what role he sent in it's Qatols turn. When he have posted it's clear for snarfs to go etc. The manner of the roleclaim I think should be What role you sent in. OBS: Not if you got it or not. Thoughts?

Angry Vigilante can't shoot tonight. In fact, tonight should be very illuminating about what happened with the Copy Cat. If I'm not mistaken, there are only 4 possible shots tonight because JOAT is dead: Vigilante, Copy Cat (CPR), Mafia, SK.

Why on earth do you want to give the mafia/SK more information right now? A mass roleclaim MIGHT make sense if we need to hunt for the Copy Cat. But what value would it give us right now? All it would do is tell the Mafia and SK which players they should be gunning for. I'd like to keep the locations of roles like the Doctor, Role Cop, and Bullet Bill as hidden as possible, thank you. (Doctor is by far the highest priority target for SK right now, Role Cop is probably second, depending on what role the SK got. Mafia also don't want to see a town Doctor in the game, depending on their role selections, Role Cop could also be very bad, and Bullet Bill is definitely extremely bad for mafia.)

On May 19 2012 22:40 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2012 13:29 Qatol wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote:
This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position.


I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play.

On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread.

Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet.


And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town.

Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying.

Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively:
1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd
2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd
3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla
4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla
5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla

Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor.
1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him?

I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further:
1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.)
2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened:
2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars.
2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars).
3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him.

So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early?

Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying.

If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated:
We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason.


Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target?

I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates.


hinthint:
As you said, there have to be 2 liars OR risk is the liar because if Risk is the liar it all works with only one liar as well.
Occhams razzor says we should lynch risk.

No, if risk was lying, then zelblade or marvellosity must have been lying as well. Occam's Razor says lynch Sentinel, who only required 1 liar.

On May 19 2012 23:37 Mattchew wrote:
I think any townie with a gun should shoot barundar

Why, exactly, is Barundar the best target?

On May 20 2012 00:11 marvellosity wrote:
Please protect me

Is risk definitely telling the truth now?

I think Doctor should use their best judgment on who to protect, considering the roles at stake as well as probable alignments of players. Jailer should jail Risk. Witch should consider using their ability tonight (it really should be used either tonight or Night 2), depending on the likelihood the witch thinks they will get shot/lynched before Night 2 vs. the potential chance to block the Angry Vigilante's shot.

Risk probably isn't mafia, at least. It would be completely insane (as opposed to just incredibly gutsy) for them to pull a stunt like they did with Sentinel if 2 of the 3 players in that group were scum. That being said, he isn't confirmed either.
Uff Da
risk.nuke
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden2825 Posts
May 19 2012 17:28 GMT
#1045
Yes thanks you three people have reminded us that the angry vigilante can not shoot tonight and I never even said he should. I ment if we're going to try to take out the serial killer with a vig then I am ill-suited for it. I'd prefer to lynch Palmar tomorrow so there can be no janitor shenanigans.

And you avoided answering what you thought about roleclaiming. Ofcourse we're not doing it tonight. What part of what I said made you believe I wanted to do it tonight? I'm not asking you to roleclaim now. I'm asking if you think it's a good move or a bad move.
Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
May 19 2012 17:32 GMT
#1046
What do people think of Toad?

I've often found him pretty confusing this game and he has a bunch of long-winded posts.

In Wheel of Fortune he said he was making a specific effort as town to appear more townie and cut out the shitting up the thread, but he seems to have gone back to that here to an extent.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 19 2012 18:17 GMT
#1047
Is there a particular reason why we go bottom up rather than top down?
Is it because the mafia are likely in the lower drafts so they have a harder time lying?
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 19 2012 19:23 GMT
#1048
On May 20 2012 02:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Yes thanks you three people have reminded us that the angry vigilante can not shoot tonight and I never even said he should. I ment if we're going to try to take out the serial killer with a vig then I am ill-suited for it. I'd prefer to lynch Palmar tomorrow so there can be no janitor shenanigans.

And you avoided answering what you thought about roleclaiming. Ofcourse we're not doing it tonight. What part of what I said made you believe I wanted to do it tonight? I'm not asking you to roleclaim now. I'm asking if you think it's a good move or a bad move.

I think it doesn't make sense to roleclaim right now. It might make sense in the future, and I'll address it again at that time. But for right now, I'm very much against it. I assumed you were asking for a roleclaim tonight because you proposed it right now. My apologies if that wasn't your intent.

On May 20 2012 03:17 slOosh wrote:
Is there a particular reason why we go bottom up rather than top down?
Is it because the mafia are likely in the lower drafts so they have a harder time lying?

I think the idea is that people don't know for sure if the role was taken by someone higher up if you go bottom up. But that only matters if you only do a partial mass roleclaim. Otherwise, the only rationale I can think of is that it's harder to claim you picked a role already picked but got vanilla. The second phase of the role claim would have to be a claim of whether or not you got the role you aimed for.

On May 20 2012 02:32 marvellosity wrote:
What do people think of Toad?

I've often found him pretty confusing this game and he has a bunch of long-winded posts.

In Wheel of Fortune he said he was making a specific effort as town to appear more townie and cut out the shitting up the thread, but he seems to have gone back to that here to an extent.

He isn't the best lynch right now, in my opinion. At least he somewhat helped resolve the Sentinel/risk.nuke/you situation by coming out and backing up your claim on a role I don't think it's very likely the mafia selected.
Uff Da
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 19:32 GMT
#1049
On May 19 2012 23:37 Mattchew wrote:
I think any townie with a gun should shoot barundar

according to my sheet Sandro is mafia and Barundar is the SK. Sooooo, idk my read yesterda was horrible :p

I will make it something like this post from now on until I adjusted accordingly, no pushing from my point until I am back on track. I'll give you a couple of updates on my reads but won't explain a lot and I don't even think anyone will take them into consideration given how d1 worked out.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 19:47 GMT
#1050
Oh and about the "is toad a good lynch?" question just my point of view as a last explanation to make you understand what I thought process was, although it's pretty much what Palmar said:
  • I thought Sent would have been perfectly fine as mafia if he had just not claimed at all or just claimed JOAT to deny mafia a KP, like we said pregame. Noone would have said that's a reason for a lynch considering how both Risk and marv didn't follow the plan as well
  • I thought it is very unlikely that a mafia pushes himself into a "it is either him or me" situation when he would have been perfectly fine without claiming or just claiming the truth.
  • Therefore I thought it's a townie telling the truth because it's just way too retarded for mafia. If he is mafia he tried to get himself lynched with that claim and succeeded in doing so
  • I did not think he would try to get himself lynched therefore I sticked with the "honest townie"-read

I honestly still have no idea how noone in his team told him about that. That wasn't even a move like "herpederp I'ma going to vote myself"-so-stupid-mafia-would-not-do-it. It was a mafia-shot-mafia-at-night-stupid move.

That's why I called him Town because I never could have imagined a mafia doing that mistake and rather thought it's a townie not having a clue what he's doing because I was really certain a mafia buddy would have explained him what he did if he was mafia.

Random thought
Massclaim is stupid and only helping mafia. Townies know what to do themselves and even if someone else who is a townie knew your role his advices are not going to help you because townie #1 makes decisions on the same information townie #2 has. Therefore massclaim would be free information for mafia with only very limited information for town. We could catch a mafia like that but they could just as well claim the truth or go for roles they know aren't around and claim VT (mason, Joat, stuff like that) and noone could really tell the difference between a townie and a mafia claim imo

Next update from me tomorrow :p
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 19 2012 21:42 GMT
#1051
I think it would be useful to have a full vote count for day 1. Just something to keep in mind for later. (Reposting this from the voting thread.)

[UoN]Sentinel: 9
Snarfs
risk.nuke
Qatol (from PaqMan)
Misder
Barundar
Toadesstern (from sandroba)
Bluelightz
slOosh (from PaqMan)
sandroba
marvellosity

risk.nuke: 8
Zephirdd
Mattchew
[UoN]Sentinel
zelblade
Toadesstern (from [UoN]Sentinel)
hiro protagonist
Palmar
PaqMan

marvellosity: 1
talismania

PaqMan: 0
Qatol
slOosh

sandroba: 0
Toadesstern (from Bluelightz)

Bluelightz: 0
Toadesstern
Uff Da
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
May 19 2012 21:44 GMT
#1052
shit, posted in the other thread by mistake

isn't there a vote missing?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
risk.nuke
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden2825 Posts
May 19 2012 21:56 GMT
#1053
prob modkilled day 1.
dec shot day 1.
Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
May 19 2012 22:09 GMT
#1054
On May 20 2012 06:56 risk.nuke wrote:
prob modkilled day 1.
dec shot day 1.


Sorry, yes

I presume GMarshal must have counted talis' vote on Sentinel though, as 10 would have been needed for the lynch?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
hiro protagonist
Profile Joined January 2009
1294 Posts
May 19 2012 22:13 GMT
#1055
One small corection to that vote list:

talismania switched from marvellosity to sent. In fact, he was the hammer, as without him, there would not have been a majority.

Im gonna have to reiterate what palmar said; I did not think scum do something like what sent did. He shot himself in the foot for no reason... well, whatever.

I think we should lynch PacMan next, or if any vig prefers, shoot him tonight. nvm, we still dont know if there is a janitor around, we should hold shots for now...

"I guess if you climb enough off-widths, one of these days, your gonna get your knee stuck and shit your pants. Its just an odds thing really" -Jason Kruk
risk.nuke
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden2825 Posts
May 19 2012 22:19 GMT
#1056
hiro, nice of you to resurface. what do you think of Qatol and Toad?
Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
hiro protagonist
Profile Joined January 2009
1294 Posts
May 19 2012 22:22 GMT
#1057
EBWOP: also, marv, you should us an encryption site to encrypt the name of your mason buddy, and give him the key while you post the encrytion in a spoiler in the thread. that way, if you die, he can post the key at anytime to confirm him/herself.
"I guess if you climb enough off-widths, one of these days, your gonna get your knee stuck and shit your pants. Its just an odds thing really" -Jason Kruk
hiro protagonist
Profile Joined January 2009
1294 Posts
May 19 2012 22:25 GMT
#1058
On May 20 2012 07:19 risk.nuke wrote:
hiro, nice of you to resurface. what do you think of Qatol and Toad?

Toads a null for me. I know he can talk alot as both town and scum. I did not like how he posted what roles he was trying to go for when I told him not to take the mason role.

Qatol is ether town or the SK. Im like 95% he is not mafia.
"I guess if you climb enough off-widths, one of these days, your gonna get your knee stuck and shit your pants. Its just an odds thing really" -Jason Kruk
risk.nuke
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden2825 Posts
May 19 2012 22:26 GMT
#1059
I think marv should just claim. They are just going to help draw fire from blues.
Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 19 2012 23:18 GMT
#1060
On May 20 2012 07:13 hiro protagonist wrote:
One small corection to that vote list:

talismania switched from marvellosity to sent. In fact, he was the hammer, as without him, there would not have been a majority.

Im gonna have to reiterate what palmar said; I did not think scum do something like what sent did. He shot himself in the foot for no reason... well, whatever.

I think we should lynch PacMan next, or if any vig prefers, shoot him tonight. nvm, we still dont know if there is a janitor around, we should hold shots for now...


Thank you. I did miss talismania's vote switch. Vote counts are so hard to do correctly.

On May 20 2012 07:26 risk.nuke wrote:
I think marv should just claim. They are just going to help draw fire from blues.

What is with you and claiming? Why can't the masoned player BE a blue? There is no requirement in the mason role that the player selected be a green and not a blue. It just says "Pro-town person."

I agree with hiro protagonist that they should breadcrumb the masoned player though (there are lots of ways to do it, encryption is a good one). That way if marvellosity gets killed and flips town, we can determine the mod-confirmed innocent mason target.
Uff Da
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