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Pick Your Power: Redux - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 14 2012 21:00 GMT
#375
On May 15 2012 05:56 marvellosity wrote:
To be simpleminded for a moment - is the general advice to pick whatever numbers you like?

Pretty much. Town wants to clash with the mafia/ give them uncertainty about which numbers to pick, so pick whatever you want.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 14 2012 22:52 GMT
#390
On May 15 2012 06:42 hiro protagonist wrote:
EBWOP:

Basicly, I think that using roles to control the top spots picks is superior to using double picks because:

*power roles that can cotrol the cpr doc are more usful later in the game when we can use the role for towns advatage.
* choseing a RBer denys' the role for scum.
* Double picking will lead to VTowns, but not VScums.
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 06:16 deconduo wrote:
If we do decide to go with set picks, we need to have a solid decision before the draft order goes through. Mafia will change their preferences based on what positions they get so we can't have any more discussion once the order is revealed.

100% agree. We make a plan, and there is no changing it after the draft phase.

I also agree that the assigned picks shouldn't be changed after the draft order is announced.

I offer an alternative to double picking both Janitor and CPR: have the 3rd player randomly pick one of the two roles and select it. I'm okay with a 50/50 gamble to discourage the mafia from allowing the role to fall down. If they are wrong, they lose a member (the player who didn't select the role) AND the role. I think that's enough to discourage such a gambit.

You could try to control the pick with the roleblocker instead, but then you risk having the mafia allow a role like CPR to fall and you wind up roleblocking the wrong player for a while until you figure out there's an extra KP. I still don't think roleblocker is a high priority scum pick, so the denial value is limited. And I think the town benefits a lot more from having the location of the roleblocker remain hidden.

As far as the traitor goes, we can't control when or if it will be picked. But neither can the mafia. I think the best policy regarding that role is to remind everyone that whenever it is picked, it has been picked twice, usually within the top 10, so you don't tend to last long with that pick. And the player doesn't even get to join the mafia chat or anything this time. Our best policy for the time being is just to ignore the role and worry about it once the picks are in.

On May 15 2012 07:32 slOosh wrote:
Also I want to discuss the Copy Cat further - it says that it copies the first power role, and with the possibility that scum will take something like angry vig and shoot whoever to copy cat the janitor/cpr? Shouldn't it be a role up for denial solely because it has the capability to copy roles that are up for denial? (Unless I'm misunderstanding something here).

The SK shot is resolved before the Angry Vigi's shot. So is the day 1 lynch. While the mafia shot comes first at night, there is obviously a high incentive to protect one of the first 2 players on night 1. Plus there's always the witch protection (witch is better when used night 1-2ish anyways to keep more potential blues in the game longer, slow the game down more, and reduce the risk that the witch will get shot before using the protection). I don't think the copycat is a particularly appealing role for the mafia in this kind of setup.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 14 2012 23:16 GMT
#394
On May 15 2012 08:12 Toadesstern wrote:
Also someone (I think Qatol?) said something about the Tracker being a horrible choice for town. I actually like it way more than the two DT's and think it's the best information role together with gun-bob for town.

What's the reasoning behind saying the Tracker is a horrible choice for town?

Tracker only follows mafia/SK to the kill if they used their role to make the kill or they are vanilla. For example, a serial killer veteran would never seem to go anywhere if tracked. Similarly, a doctor mafia member protecting a teammate would be tracked to the teammate, not the mafia kill.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 14 2012 23:52 GMT
#398
On May 15 2012 08:30 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 08:16 Qatol wrote:
On May 15 2012 08:12 Toadesstern wrote:
Also someone (I think Qatol?) said something about the Tracker being a horrible choice for town. I actually like it way more than the two DT's and think it's the best information role together with gun-bob for town.

What's the reasoning behind saying the Tracker is a horrible choice for town?

Tracker only follows mafia/SK to the kill if they used their role to make the kill or they are vanilla. For example, a serial killer veteran would never seem to go anywhere if tracked. Similarly, a doctor mafia member protecting a teammate would be tracked to the teammate, not the mafia kill.

that seems stupid. Why include a tracker when mafia / SK don't have to deliver the killing blow oO
Do we have that stated by GM somewhere?

Can the Tracker find out about a Goon mafia or a Goon SK killing someone when following them?

If that's the case, yeah Tracker is really stupid for town but I can't think of GM including a Tracker if he can't track normal mafia / SK kills.

It's in the role description.
On May 06 2012 03:06 GMarshal wrote:
Tracker Follow someone and find out the first person they visited that night. (role abilities supersede alignment based abilities for the purpose of tracking. E.G if you were to track a scum roleblocker, you would see who he roleblocked, not who he killed. If you tracked a scum Veteran, you'd see him stay home, even if he carried out a kill, as his role ability (Veteran) is what you track, not his factional kill)
This is also how it worked in previous PYPs (PYP2 for example).
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 15 2012 01:15 GMT
#403
On May 15 2012 09:34 Zephirdd wrote:
Anyhow, what do you guys think about the dayvig+copycat thing? Imagine, for instance, that the number 1 actually picks CPR and mafia is aware, and they picked both dayvig and copycat.

Instant CPR for them, right? That said, I think town should really consider picking either dayvig or copycat when you find yourself on the first half of the draft.

They're welcome to try it. I'm willing to trade an easy early mafia kill for them getting CPR. Plus if they happen to whiff on selecting dayvig, they risk getting a copycat role which is completely useless to them (for example, alignment cop). And they risk having someone lower in the list whiffing on copycat, thus narrowing the potential CPR candidates. Doing something like that is a huge gamble for them.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 15 2012 02:37 GMT
#407
On May 15 2012 10:19 PaqMan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 09:35 talismania wrote:
Paqman, the plans being discussed all revolve around setting the roles to be picked by the top three or so draft winners. In effect, they are pre-claiming the roles that those three people will get.


But what if the top three winners, regardless of alignment, simply choose to not follow one of the plans laid out? That's what I'm wondering, if nobody in the top 3-5 chooses CPR/Janitor/RB then should whoever gets that power claim?

Who are you thinking wouldn't follow the plans? Nobody is even arguing against them right now. Are you suggesting that there are 3-5 people who think it is better to disagree and silently act on their own rather than talking about their concerns openly right now? That's pretty anti-town behavior on their part. If anyone has reservations about assigning the roles as we are discussing, please bring them forward now. However, if the plan isn't followed and someone lower in the queue happens to get the Janitor or CPR Doctor (as I mentioned earlier, you should consider all roles fair game just in case, no matter where you are in the queue - use your judgment based on your reads on the people above you and your location), then yeah, they should claim after the Copy Cat has been assigned. It creates accountability, which is never a bad thing.
Note: this is only with regards to the CPR Doctor and the Janitor roles. This is not an invitation to claim your role (or lack thereof) for no reason later.

It's possible that these plans won't work if the top 3 picks are all mafia/SK, but then we can figure them out via the KP numbers. And it isn't like they won't drop like flies once we figure out what happened. This is the whole point of slowing down the game - to give the town time to organize.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 15 2012 18:22 GMT
#454
Ugh, you people post too much.

Toadesstern, I'm sorry you feel like I'm stealing your thunder. It wasn't intentional. Like PaqMan said, your posts definitely aren't being ignored. Nobody is calling your ideas retarded. In fact, most of us agree with them! I'm willing to talk to you more in depth about your posting, but I don't think mid-game is the right context for that. Shoot me a PM after the game ends/ after we both die and we can talk. Also, I think I have you beat by a few years on the idea of assigning specific roles to specific draft slots.


Sandroba, there is also a reason that a lot of games involving a lot of town KP end in disaster if the KP is used early (see Responsibility Mafia for example). Assigning the role does accomplish what we want to accomplish. It puts the role at a known spot in the queue, which allows the role to be roleblocked by a Roleblocker or Jailkeeper later in the queue if they wish. It also forces the mafia to take the role with the first pick if they want it. Meanwhile, if a townie gets the role, then we have effectively taken one of the most dangerous roles out of play for the mafia. Assigning the 50/50 pick for the 3rd player isn't just about denying CPR, it's also about denying Janitor. The point is we don't want to see the role used at all, it isn't just that we are worried about finding scum after the role is used (although that is a perk).

Regarding the Godfather, the point everyone else has is that the Godfather role simply isn't that strong a selection for the mafia. There are far more concerning selections anyways. Plus, if you're worried about the role, just consider taking it (if you don't have a top 3 pick). This advice applies to everyone and every role. The point is that we don't want the mafia to feel safe taking anything (other than Tracker). Also, could you re-post the Carolus Magnus post on your Sandroba account? You're messing up your filter for later if you don't.


Barundar/Bluelightz, the problem with denying more roles than just 2 is you wind up in a situation where the mafia has a very good idea of what each player is going to be selecting. This is problematic for a few reasons.

First, the mafia/SK can simply take roles they want before they are assigned and feel relatively comfortable that they will get their role. We don't want them to feel comfortable selecting anything, especially not the roles they specifically want. We want them to have to weigh the danger that a role will be selected against the value that role brings to their team. We want to force them to select roles they don't want as much because they're worried that selecting the roles they do want will be too dangerous. Alternatively, we want them to try to select a role they really want, but miss and wind up with vanilla members. Both situations are a huge win for the town.

Second, we don't want the mafia/SK to know where to shoot to hit the roles they are concerned about. The problem with assigning too many roles is the mafia/SK know where those roles are, so if we want to commit to keeping them alive, we have to use our protections on them, which gives the mafia/SK more confidence when shooting other players. We want them to spend their time shooting into players with defensive roles and/or players who have defensively selected a role but don't intend to use it. The odds that they will do such a thing go up significantly if we assign fewer roles.

Barundar, the problem with your role cop plan (as mentioned by zelblade and Bluelightz) is that there aren't enough roles which can confirm role selection. Because of this, it is not worth the drawbacks (mentioned above) of assigning every role in exchange for allowing 1 role + 1 JOAT check (note: it is a role check only) + sometimes a Bullet Bill check the ability to check if people followed the plan. For all you know, the mafia may even want the role they are assigned, which causes even more problems.


Regarding roles, I'm surprised people are pointing out the danger of Angry Vigilante when I find Vigilante to be far scarier. Sure Angry Vigilante bypasses the first protection. But how often do we get medic protections anyways? And what are the odds that the player shot will be protected by a medic. It allows the mafia to beat a medic and kill an experienced player night 1 if they want, but it's a one-shot ability and the mafia are still gambling that the player didn't pick something like Hider or Veteran + attracted protection or happens to be the SK. Meanwhile, Vigilante allows the mafia to take out 2 players and speed up the game that much more - a far more dangerous ability.

SK Politician is a powerful selection. However, it only assists the SK in the lategame. It is the town + the mafia's job to make sure that the SK doesn't make it to the lategame. Besides, the selection isn't without its dangers - if a role check is used on the SK, it's going to be pretty obvious what his alignment is if he has Politician and hasn't claimed it.

Pardoner doesn't scare me - it slows down the game and I'm more worried about the mafia speeding the game up. While it can be used to confuse the town, it isn't as devastating as other selections they could make. Remember, the mafia have to use one of their 4 role selections on this role. I think they have more value elsewhere.

Misder, please read my earlier posts on the copycat. Mafia only have 1 KP, so they can't stack on anyone. SK shoots before any roles get their shots, so Mafia would lose the ability to control the copycatted role.

Deconduo, I disagree with using a tiering system (labeling specific roles as picks people high in the list should consider). And I definitely disagree with you that Witch, Jailkeeper, and Hider are bad roles. Hider is probably the best defensive role out there because you are completely immune to night kills as long as you are hiding behind a low priority kill target. Personally, I think it is much stronger than Veteran. Witch and Jailkeeper are 2 of our 4 protection roles (along with Doctor and JOAT). Why on earth are you trying to take them out of play? Both of them are better selections for most town players than something like Roleblocker for example.

I only partially disagree that Framers should be lynched if checked. I think Framer is a decent denial selection for a townie. However, I think this role has to come with a caveat: if you get it, you have to claim it.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 15 2012 20:40 GMT
#458
Deconduo, I don't like the idea of a tiering system because I don't want people locked into the idea of "X role isn't good enough to be picked this early" or "X role is too good to be picked this late." Such a system results in CPR Doctor being picked at 20, Meth Man making it to 16, and Copycat slipping down to 24 (all from Pick Your Power Insane). I know it will still happen to a certain extent, but I want to minimize it. If it's a good role, I want to see it in the game and I want to see it in the hands of someone who is comfortable using it. That should also keep interest and activity levels higher for the town. I realize that you left things relatively open, but I think any sort of tiering system will push people into this mindset more than I'd like to see.

Jailkeeper in particular synergizes well with CPR doctor. Generally, it's an extra doctor, but it also has the benefit of denying the use of roles you don't want to see used anyways. Alternatively, we can use it as a second roleblocker. You would take it instead of roleblocker or doctor because you think the other role is being picked or just because you want to give the game a little more flexibility.

Hider is a gamber's role, but only to a certain extent. Notice that Hider does not die if he hides behind mafia any more. This means that you just have to think about the players you think the mafia/SK are unlikely to hit.

The biggest benefit of Witch isn't that it reduces KP, but that it definitely automatically gives a free blocked hit. This alone makes it stronger than Veteran unless someone is silly enough to shoot the Veteran twice but not on consecutive nights. It may also be stronger than Doctor because of how hard it is to block a hit in the first place.

I disagree about claiming a denial role straight away. Claim it only after the Copy Cat has been decided. We don't want to give the mafia ideas about other players to shoot and grab good roles.

Say a Hider hides behind another player and then the Hider is targeted by the Angry Vigilante. Does the Hider die? It looks to me like he would not, correct?

Similarly, the Witch seems to indicate that it will simply prevent someone from dying. Does this mean that the Witch protection will stop an Angry Vigilante shot?


On May 16 2012 03:50 Barundar wrote:
A few corrections, first bluelightz was the one suggesting the role cop plan, I'd never agree to a follow the cop scenario, but he seems to have pulled it off the table anyways.

I interpret your argument against denying more roles as you don't want to have to deal with copy cat shenanigans by having scum powerroles die night 1, is that correct? If so I feel a lot better about not regulating the CC.

Second angry vigi can't be used on first night, making it even less of a threat.

My apologies. It was bluelightz and not you who suggested the role cop plan.

My argument for denying roles is I don't want to deal with the scum having those power roles, or at least I don't want them to feel secure taking those power roles. I to force them to think on their feet because they're more likely to make a mistake that way. And if we wind up with a vanilla goon/SK, we are in much better shape. I believe the copy cat will be dealt with either by the day 1 lynch or medic protections. I don't believe the mafia will shoot into the Janitor/CPR players for fear of a doctor, which means they have to guess as to who has which role, a situation I'm okay with. If they do shoot the CPR/Janitor and run into a medic, then the SK shot determines the role of the Copy Cat, which I'm also okay with. But the best way to deal with the Copy Cat is to get a lynch off on day 1. I already have a strong candidate in mind, in fact. However, I don't want to discuss that kind of thing until we have sorted out the number selections and the drafting phase. We need to remain focused on what is going on right now.

You are correct about the Angry Vigi. Nice catch. I feel a little embarrased about missing that one.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 02:03 GMT
#478
On May 16 2012 07:55 Snarfs wrote:
Catching up:

I'm okay with either

CPR
Janitor
CPR/Janitor 50/50

or

CPR
CPR
Janitor

Qatol, it looks like your argument against the second option was that it didn't prevent the Janitor power from being used (please correct me if I have this wrong). However, in either situation, if mafia gets the Janitor spot on the queue, they can use it in exchange for a member of their team. Either way if Janitor is used we lynch into the Janitor spot on the queue.

I also don't really mind if people post their own rankings of the roles. It can be useful for newer players who haven't seen many of these roles, such as myself, to see the discussion. As long as everyone looking for advice doesn't take it as a "you have to pick these roles in these positions", it seems more beneficial than harmful.

Yeah you're right. Either way, I'm standing by my earlier position of doing CPR, Janitor, 50/50.
I'm okay with people posting opinions/rankings/tiers for roles, but I am NOT okay with us trying to force a tier or order system on people. I think that should be left up to the judgment of each individual player.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 02:11 GMT
#480
Why are people posting their numbers? It doesn't help anything. It is useless spam. The numbers theory from PYP1 only worked because the mafia hadn't thought of it. Now that it has been used, the numbers don't serve any purpose because the mafia could have taken that plan into account and deliberately clashed with each other. Heck, in PYP:Insane, the mafia 3x clashed with each other.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 05:31 GMT
#491
On May 16 2012 13:44 talismania wrote:
If people are worried about being spammy with posting their numbers then just post them at the end of a non spammy post. As paqman says it can't hurt town or help scum.

I'm okay with this attitude. Posting your numbers as part of something more constructive is fine. And to practice what I preach, I picked [5][1]. Regardless, a post such as this:
On May 16 2012 10:24 talismania wrote:
I picked 15,1
does nothing for the town except add one more post on that page. I want people to try and read the entire thread. I also want people to remain as active as possible. Spam encourages people to skim or not read the thread right now because "there are too many pages to go through." I don't want the thread to have that effect on people.

On May 16 2012 13:21 PaqMan wrote:
Yepp, I don't understand that. Some discussion is always better than complete silence. Makes it too easy for scum.
The problem is posts such as the one I pointed out don't even qualify as "discussion." The only thing worse than silence is spam. Spam allows the mafia to blend in but still remain completely useless to the town (which is what they want to do anyways in an ideal situation). Plus, like I mentioned before, then people are less likely to want to read the thread or read the thread less carefully and miss important posts.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 13:56 GMT
#519
A couple of things:
Palmar, please play the game seriously or don't sign up. You're just acting like a jerk at this point. I realize you're trying to make points by mocking/parodying other posts, but it really isn't a very nice way to play and it doesn't reflect well on you as a person or mafia player. You're better than this.

Everyone, just stick to the plan. Risk, even if you don't buy that CPR is dangerous, you mentioned yourself that Janitor is extremely dangerous for the mafia to have. There's your reason to prevent the Mafia from having the ability to use it. Just take it, please. You don't even need to worry about CPR, so just don't.

Marvellosity, don't let the discussion here confuse/WIFOM you. You should still be randomly generating (like random.org or dice if necessary) between Janitor and CPR. We want as little predictability as possible for the mafia in the role selection process.

I agree with zelblade that we shouldn't be talking about scum reads right now. I also agree with hiro protagonist that too much discussion of roles will just reveal what we are planning to pick. I also agree with PaqMan that complete silence is bad for the town because it allows the mafia to hide too easily. So I offer an alternative discussion topic which should allow some discussion of roles without revealing much about what you want to pick. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to involve the people with middle picks easily because there's such a huge variance in the roles they could be selecting.

Proposed discussion topics for the day
Deconduo, risk.nuke, and marvellosity, feel free to jump in on any of these discussion topics.

[UoN]Sentinel, Mattchew, zelblade, Bluelightz, talismania, and misder:
What two pro-town roles would you like to see taken for sure by someone in the queue? These can be roles you are considering taking yourself. The point is you want to see this role in the game for sure and you think there is a chance the role will be passed over entirely.

hiro protagonist, Palmar, Snarfs, me, Sandroba, and Probulous:
What two roles do you think the mafia/SK want to grab early? These can be roles which will help the town a ton which you think the mafia/SK will try to deny or these can be roles which you think will help the mafia/SK significantly. These can still be roles you are considering taking yourself.

Players with the middle picks can consider the responses from both groups of players.

I'd like to see some comments on this idea (until say, 19:00 GMT (+00:00), which would give us 6 hours to talk about roles still, and we can speed this up if there is an overwhelmingly positive or negative response) before anyone answers these questions. I realize that it may cause a little more predictability for the mafia/SK, but it should also be effective in making sure that people in various parts of the queue are looking at important roles. More importantly, I'm a little worried that my not-quite-awake brain hasn't considered a major drawback to doing this.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 14:56 GMT
#542
On May 16 2012 23:15 zelblade wrote:
@Qatol

Why do you want us to reveal what roles we would like to be taken for sure? All this does is give a decent amount of information for scum considering how most people would probably pick what they feel is best - AKA what they reveal in the thread to be the best for town. This seems like its going to give mafia a rough idea of what people are going to pick, allowing them to not only snipe important roles but also discourages town from selecting stronger roles in fear of clashes.

For instance, if Sentinel states that he thinks, say, medic and JOAT are important roles, scum will know that he is probably going to pick either. This not only discourages town from picking one of these really useful roles up (since they think that sentinel probably is selecting one and dont want to become a VT) but also lets scum know that he is, more likely than not, one of these roles.

The point was supposed to be that people with low picks can give advice to people with high picks and vice versa. The idea was that this way people can try to give advice to players in another part of the queue without revealing their pick. That was why I specifically left out the people in the middle of the queue. Notice that the question directed towards people higher in the queue says that the role has a danger of not being picked at all. This is an attempt to allow people give advice to people in the middle/bottom of the queue without too much danger of talking about your role choice or tipping your hand in any way. Notice I also said it can be a role you want to take yourself.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 15:08 GMT
#547
On May 17 2012 00:02 risk.nuke wrote:
Qatol that sort of discussion will benefit the mafia more then town.

That's why I asked for comments. Can you explain why in depth?
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 15:10 GMT
#548
On May 17 2012 00:08 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2012 00:05 risk.nuke wrote:
On May 17 2012 00:02 marvellosity wrote:
On May 16 2012 23:55 risk.nuke wrote:
I said it wont affect them at all if you bothered to read before you spurted out your bunch of nonsense.


Accusing me of not reading when you're the one who had an entire day to raise objections to the plan being raised and yet sat there twiddling your silly little thumbs.

Nice.

Why I did not read the thread last night is completely irrelevant to you not reading the posts of the person you are arguing with. Now don't spam post unless you put some thought behind it.


You obviously aren't coming across very clearly then, are you?

Show nested quote +
On May 16 2012 23:36 risk.nuke wrote:
Ebwop: If you don't understand why it's beneficial to have a confused and panicking scumteam worrying about reads when they are picking their roles I hope those underlined words helped you figure it out.


This reads as you think discussing scumreads will cause panick and confusion. If this isn't what you meant, then write better.

Guys please stop insulting each other. It isn't helping anything.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 20:35 GMT
#580
On May 17 2012 05:09 Toadesstern wrote:
We all agreed to a plan before the game started.
If you are going to playing anti-town I will make sure you get lynched with everything I can do. Maybe I even got the dayvig :p

Toad, it only makes sense to lynch him for playing anti-town if he is also the strongest candidate out there to be mafia/SK. Trust me, he isn't. Besides, we can adapt easily enough - just have [UoN]Sentinel take Janitor. He may or may not get it depending on what marvellosity takes. But at least we have insurance. It can be frustrating for something like this to happen, but this is the best we can do right now.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 16 2012 21:00 GMT
#584
On May 17 2012 05:43 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2012 05:35 Qatol wrote:
On May 17 2012 05:09 Toadesstern wrote:
We all agreed to a plan before the game started.
If you are going to playing anti-town I will make sure you get lynched with everything I can do. Maybe I even got the dayvig :p

Toad, it only makes sense to lynch him for playing anti-town if he is also the strongest candidate out there to be mafia/SK. Trust me, he isn't. Besides, we can adapt easily enough - just have [UoN]Sentinel take Janitor. He may or may not get it depending on what marvellosity takes. But at least we have insurance. It can be frustrating for something like this to happen, but this is the best we can do right now.


Do you really think he can possibly be town if he ends up being NOT janitor?
Don't you think a townie would have just told us about that? If he told us about that this whole situation would be no problem. We could have made a Plan-B for this scenario or everyone else saying that they won't stick to the plan.
But he did not.

I am not trying to get him lynched. In fact I am the guy telling people (like deconduo) that it is very much possible Risk is town and has some weird plan that in his mind imagination will somehow end up helping town while still picking Janitor to not get him lynched d1 although he looks bad right now.
Unless of course we got confirmation that he actually is mafia (read: if he ends up picking something other than Janitor).

I don't dispute that what he's doing is very much anti-town. That being said, I don't think he's the strongest candidate for lynch/ day vigi on day 1 for several reasons:
1. Copy Cat. There is a role out there good enough that risk.nuke is willing to call all of this onto his head for the chance of taking it. I don't want to see whatever it is copied because it's likely a pretty strong role. I'd rather go after someone a little bit lower in the picking order.

2. I have found a much stronger candidate for the day 1 lynch.

3. Yes, I think it is possible that he is town but is stubbornly doing his own thing. It happens. Look at Bill Murray in PYP1 for example. He also decided to go rogue on the town out of nowhere, but was a townie himself. At least risk.nuke told us now that he isn't picking janitor so we can do something about it. I'm not saying that he doesn't merit watching carefully in the future, but I don't want to see him lynched right now.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 17 2012 01:14 GMT
#604
Let me preface this discussion by stating that we have seen very little arguing between players so far. The number selections being completely random and the discussions about roles have gone almost completely without debate. This is a very pro-town atmosphere and tells me that the mafia are trying to blend into the discussion rather than keep the town from working together. The mafia haven't been working towards encouraging arguments at this point. Therefore, the people we should be looking at first are the ones who are hovering around the edges of the discussion without adding much.

As promised, I give you my strong lynch target: PaqMan

First, he undergoes a stark change in attitude after the game starts. When the game is still in its setup stages, he's positively giddy about the game starting.
On May 11 2012 12:00 PaqMan wrote:
Woot! Pretty psyched about getting in!
However, once the game starts, his posting undergoes a major change. He becomes much more conservative in his posting, to the point where he might be considered apathetic about the game. He spends most of the number selection phase lurking in the background asking a question or two here and there, but not really making much of an attempt to contribute. Where did the pregame excitement go?

Notice this post:
On May 15 2012 10:19 PaqMan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 09:35 talismania wrote:
Paqman, the plans being discussed all revolve around setting the roles to be picked by the top three or so draft winners. In effect, they are pre-claiming the roles that those three people will get.


But what if the top three winners, regardless of alignment, simply choose to not follow one of the plans laid out? That's what I'm wondering, if nobody in the top 3-5 chooses CPR/Janitor/RB then should whoever gets that power claim?
The question to ask is "why would he post something like this?" Note that nobody at the time was posting any reservations about the number selection plan at all. So why would he ask this? Because he's trying to make it look like he's involved in the discussion and making useful posts without really advancing the main discussion at all.

These posts made part of one of his next posts even more surprising:
On May 15 2012 13:20 PaqMan wrote:
I noticed it, Toad. I tend to not comment on things if I can't make any sort of contribution. I'm not really sure how to explain this but Qatol just seems more aggressive in asserting his opinion and getting the point across, or something.
But yeah don't think that your posts are being ignored.
Then what was that comment earlier? And why have you been asking questions up to this point without giving your opinion on anything? Up to this point, you haven't contributed anything at all! We literally know your opinion on nothing. But you are still highlighting different parts of the plan.


Now let's compare this to another recent game where PaqMan was a townie: Mafia 'Area' LIII
He started very similarly, chomping at the bit for the game to start.
However, notice his posts once the game started:
On April 21 2012 10:49 PaqMan wrote:
I like Gonzaw's idea of the vig's claiming. Only problem with that is that Scum will have a list of vig's and won't have to do any sniping..
So now that I think about it, I don't really like that idea at all lol.

Town can't keep assuming things this game. It'll make an ass out of u and me. We don't know how many of what roles there are and continuous speculation isn't going to help at all.
There is a HUGE difference between how he acts here. He's comfortable asserting his opinion when questioning an idea. Notice that he has done nothing of the sort in this game other than pointing out that posting numbers doesn't hurt the town if done in the context of a larger post.

Now look at one more post from Area LIII which draws an even bigger contrast to the posts he has been making in this game:
On April 21 2012 12:01 PaqMan wrote:
But I do agree with you VE. Giving scum any more info puts them in an even greater advantage over us. A mass vig claim would be the same as handing them a hit list.
some of gonzaw's points however are pretty valid (no late-game chaos with vig claiming before lynch, etc etc).

Either way, I can't see a vig following either one of y'alls policies.
He claims, town lynches him and nothing is gained.
He claims, chance of mafia taking him out or keeps him alive, either way there's chaos.

I suggest that our vigilante (if we have one) doesn't claim at all. If he's about to be lynched then he needs to defend himself as a normal townie because claiming vig is going to create a shitstorm for us, which gives scum the upper hand.
If he's going to use his kp one someone, he doesn't need to claim before or after the kill. It's going to create too much confusion and WIFOM and finger-pointing and shit.

So I think that vigilantes should not make any claims this game.

This is a wonderful pro-town post. He points out potential flaws in a plan and suggests an improvement. He hasn't even come CLOSE to doing something like this in the current game even though all we have done so far is talk about plans! He has the ability to do so, he just hasn't.


So, in summary, PaqMan fits the profile we should be looking for as a mafia, we saw a dramatic shift between his pre-game and current posting styles, his posts show that he is scared to give meaningful contribution to the ongoing discussion, he clearly doesn't care about the well-being of the town, and his history tells us that this is completely out of character for him. All of this adds up to Mafia.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 17 2012 01:27 GMT
#615
I would like to point out that this in no way confirms Mattchew. The main reason for this is because the Copy Cat just got the CPR Doctor role. If you got the role, claim it and don't use it. If nobody claims the role, I'm going to have to assume it went to an anti-town player.
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 17 2012 01:40 GMT
#620
Oh I forgot to add the most important part to my earlier post:
##Vote: PaqMan
As a standing policy (like most other games), I propose the following: If you vote in the voting thread, you post it here as well. That way people can get a feel for how the voting is looking and votes can't come in under the radar.
Uff Da
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