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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular. I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered. Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target? Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'm going to attempt to put ourselves in a good position going forward by claiming Town Detective. Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me. This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why. 1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town. 2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth. 3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic. HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal. Clawtrocity, I hope you're telling the truth. I am not afraid of dying tonight. In order to round out this temporary alliance, I would ask that any other medics out there, please heal Clawtrocity. We should be safe for the time being. I think this is a better way to protect our key roles than the 1/7 random chance of mafia choosing to kill me. | ||
FirmTofu
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Your move, mafia. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic: Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic. Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. Say what? You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea. Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak. Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me. Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 02 2012 13:29 Gummy wrote: There is less than a 50% probability conditioned on the history of past games of there being EITHER a jailkeeper another medic or both. Therefore this isn't a risk at all for the mafia. Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum. I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle. Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately. I'm sorry I haven't played many games on this site, so I don't have preconceived notions as to how games are balanced. While you may very well be right about there either being a jailkeeper OR a medic, you aren't exactly explaining your position very well. I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations. To be clear, I do believe you are town. I just would like you to see where I'm coming from. | ||
FirmTofu
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Posted right after my role claim: On May 01 2012 20:16 Gummy wrote: We still haven't heard anything from AcesRequiem. Just fyi, in case you vote me off, I currently suspect Clawtrocity and Paschl. I am almost certain that ange777 demorcef dahdum firmtofu are good guys. I believe Matriarch and AcesRequiem, so far, to be entirely useless. >Claims he is almost certain I am a good guy. On May 02 2012 02:42 Gummy wrote: Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl. >Claims Claw is scum to a very high degree of certainty. Absolutely no reasoning to back up his accusations. >Poses the conditional that if he dies, Claw and Paschl are mafia. No explanation given. On May 02 2012 02:45 Gummy wrote: If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu. IMMEDIATELY AFTER: >Poses a contradictory statement to the one he JUST posted that implies that in the event Claw flips mafia, I am mafia. Again, no explanation. On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic: Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic. Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. >Finally attempts to explain his cryptic accusations. Is now dead-set on me and Claw being mafia. Note that this is a complete reversal from his previous conclusion that Claw and Paschl are mafia. Flip-flopper? I'd say so. I did not post a single time between these posts made by Gummy. However, Gummy completely changed his stance on his views on me from 100% confirmed town to 100% confirmed mafia. He makes no real case for why he did this other than posing hypothetical scenarios and saying they will occur with a 100% degree of certainty. Conclusion: Gummy should not be taken seriously. He knows absolutely nothing of value and is contributing nothing to our discussion. I am completely dumbfounded by his train of thought because it doesn't make sense for ANY alignment to act the way he is right now. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and conclude he is merely inexperienced before I jump to any conclusions about his role. I'll look into it more later. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them. Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information. ##vote: No Lynch | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well. This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote: You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw claimed medic. Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 03 2012 08:26 FirmTofu wrote: I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic: -Claw claimed medic. Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. FIXED! | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 03 2012 08:30 Gummy wrote: None of your evidence includes any of my painstakingly crafted game theoretic models. That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that. I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? | ||
FirmTofu
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Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic. At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:45 Gummy wrote: So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. | ||
FirmTofu
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Poll: When is day going to start? When Gummy switches his major to Greek and Near Eastern Mythology (4) Dec. 21 2012 (1) Now (0) Exactly an hour from now (0) Tomorrow (0) When paschl commits suicide because of Gummy (0) When MKP wins a GSL (0) Never (0) 5 total votes Your vote: When is day going to start? (Vote): Now I must know! | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 04 2012 10:12 paschl wrote: isnt dec. 21 2012 and never basically the same thing? I guess it depends... Will Gummy ever change his major? Will MKP ever win a GSL? Are these also the same things as never? Particle-wave duality. The universe is one with us. *Insert New Age stuff here* | ||
FirmTofu
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FirmTofu
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On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. He is supportive of the survival of these three people currently in the spotlight. Therefore, we can assume that none of these three people would have had the motive to kill him. Essentially, these three people are less likely to be mafia. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. dahdum also has no motive to kill DeMorcerf because DeMorcerf was supportive of him. This makes him an unlikely mafia suspect, for now. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet. Matriarch remains a suspect because DeMorcerf remained neutral on her. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: ... Ange seems like a very likely suspect for mafia. She was actively criticized by DeMorcef and seems to be the person who would gain the most from his death. It's hard to be sure, but that's where we stand as of now. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"? Another great suspect for mafia. He was called out by DeMorcerf for scummy behavior and DeMorcef died last night. He also has a motive to eliminate this threat. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime). I'm willing to give paschl the benefit of the doubt here. While I did agree that he seemed a bit spammy and didn't read the rules carefully, I attribute this to his relative noobiness at the game. Although he did have some incentive to kill DeMorcerf, I don't think it was sufficient to warrant a hit on him. To round up this post, I will reveal who I checked last night. Matriarch appears to be Town. My List of Suspects(Most Suspect to Least Suspect): 1) Aces 2) Ange 3) Clawtrocity 4) Gummy 5) paschl 6) dahdum 7) Matriarch (Town) Let's hear your defense, Aces and Ange! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 04 2012 15:49 paschl wrote: fwiw, and i know this is my ego talking but i cant stop it, ive played >50 mafia games over the last 2 years. thats not counting turbos. i just signed up for the newbie game because my regular forum is down and since i have played <3 games on TL i thought id see how different the games here are to what im used to. and im not sure how much help the analysis you did will bring us. the most important thing for the mafia is killing blue roles. killing someone just for what they said about you on day 1 is a really, really, exceptionally bad play. especially since nobody had been peeked at the time. Some evidence is always better than no evidence. Here's an analogy for ya. You have a multiple choice test in front of you. There are four choices and you're petty much stumped. You realize one answer is obviously incorrect Do you: a) Make an educated guess by choosing between the other three choices at random? or b) Not attempt to answer the question? I'd say a) is the obvious answer. That's essentially what I've done here for you. I've narrowed down the list of suspects so that the likelihood of hitting mafia rises. It's the best I can do for now. Unless you have any better ideas, I suggest we go with this. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote: im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt. he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone. I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on. They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make. It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 04 2012 16:58 dahdum wrote: I would think they'd take a chance and try to hit one of 3 blue claims, but Demorcef as a target isn't too surprising. His posts made sense and he didn't stir up confusion. Firm, your check on Matriarch confirms her as an inactive townie, I don't understand the reasoning to check her over the rest of us, she's not contributing at the same level and if she was scum, we'd learn nothing about anyone else. Regardless, we now have a confirmed innocent. I don't know what to think on the Gummy/Claw v/v theory, seems unlikely to me but one *has* to be the medic. So even if the other is 100% scum, I don't think it's worthwhile to lynch on a 50% chance when the medic can continue to heal Firm. It's late here so I'll reread in the morning for more analysis. 1) Possibility of framer on Gummy/Clawtrocity is relatively high. 2) Everyone else seemed relatively innocuous, but Matriarch seemed a bit passive/aggressive with a few lurking tendencies. 3) She was at the top of my list of suspects after reading Day 1. Aces was a close second, so I had a hard time deciding. I almost wish I had chosen Aces, but we'll see how things go. Okay, NOW I'm going to sleep! ^_^ | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 03 2012 07:44 Gummy wrote: YOU WILL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS YOU WILL BE IN TODAY WITH ONE FEWER TOWNIE. On May 03 2012 07:15 Gummy wrote: @Demorcef. Your logic behind your No Lynch is flatly wrong. Rethink your logic and vote Clawtrocity please. Matriarch and Dahdum. Change your vote to me or claw now or your votes are equivalent to No Lynch. If you are a townie, and you apparently believe in LAL, just pick somebody. Your votes are complete cop-outs at this point. The Next Day... On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch Oh, I get it. He's Mitt Romney. | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 05 2012 07:23 Mementoss wrote: Don't spam memes/pictures, especially huge ones, they have there time and place, not three at a time. Alright, got it. I rather enjoyed making it though :D | ||
FirmTofu
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On May 05 2012 12:56 dahdum wrote: Would another no-lynch day be in our interest? According to Paschl we have 1 more no-lynch day, but we're likely to lose another town (unless medic risks not healing FirmTofu). If we believe there is a framer, the detection is suspect, but I assume we'd go through with a lynch on odds alone. I'm fairly confident that Ange777 is scum after reading her reply to my accusations. Considering we don't have any other info to go on other than everything we had on day 1, I say we proceed with this lynch. #vote: Ange777 | ||
FirmTofu
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##:vote: Ange777 | ||
FirmTofu
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##vote: Ange777 | ||
FirmTofu
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After Night 1, we all saw that his prediction of optimal play did not work(None of the claimed people were attacked), yet you all follow him like a bunch of sheep. Apparently, I can't even get a few hours of sleep before you all bandwagon Clawtrocity with no legitimate reasoning or backing whatsoever. Gummy is clearly scum at this point or is simply not playing to win. Gummy may sound smart, but he is manipulating you all with a clear objective to confuse and derail discussion. Everything he said showcased his single-minded illogical tunnel-visioning and it's sad that you all fell for it. For the record, I was never trolling, I was pointing out the blatant hypocrisy of Gummy in a humorous fashion. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
How would a medic react when a grand total of 2 other people claim medic? Why wouldn't they reveal their role? Wouldn't they want either Clawtrocity or Gummy dead? I must think on this further. As for the rest of you, stop voting people randomly. Thanks. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I need to medic hidden and on me for the remainer of the game. Our survival depends on the medic staying hidden. The longer he does, the better chances we have of winning the game going forward. | ||
FirmTofu
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Gummy returned as mafia. Thank god. | ||
FirmTofu
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It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition. Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest. But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological? I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia: 1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency) 2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility. 3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action. So why did Gummy claim medic? A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself. For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions. What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1: + Show Spoiler + If I claim medic and get Claw lynched... what will people think of me? He will either flip vanilla townie or medic and both of those flips would make me look bad. If he flips vanilla townie, I might be able to get out of a lynch, but if he flips medic, I'm screwed. How sure am I that this guy is a medic? Is he worth a lynch if he isn't? But what's the point? Either way I end up looking bad for no real gains for my team! Yeah, I might be able to get a medic lynched, but that would be at the cost of my own life! Conclusion: I should NOT claim medic and try to get Clawtrocity lynched. Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake. I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death. Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory. | ||
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Votes on Gummy(Need 4 to lynch): paschl FirmTofu Ange777 dahdum GG. I didn't even read his counter-arguments because they are all Gummy flailing at town hoping to appeal to emotion. For the record, Claw's fallacies were quite on target this game. It's a shame you all killed him instead of Gummy. | ||
FirmTofu
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Honestly, I didn't believe Gummy was mafia until I got a guilty on him. Then, I forced myself to rationalize the check and convince everyone else to vote for him. Like everyone was saying, you can't rely on the detective all the time, we've gotta be scumhunting too. Gummy threw me off completely and I never really recovered even though I had Ange high on my scum list day 2. Any tips for me to improve? | ||
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