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Let me retract all my pedantic and excessively jargon-filled arguments from before and try to simplify my case.
It seems that FirmTofu and Clawtrocity, regardless of their alignment, aren't so much playing to win as playing to be unpredictable and to troll. That kind of behavior can only hurt the town. You can't confuse the mafia by being trolly since the mafia know who you are. And since the mafia read the same thing on the forum as everybody else, consistent assessments will result in consistent actions.
Without getting too formal....
We say that an assessment of a situation is consistent if what you think about it is what other people think that you think about it. If I think I'm fat, but nobody else thinks that I think I'm fat, then my initial assessment was consistent.
In particular, we are interested in how actions affect what the town thinks, and affect what the mafia thinks that the town thinks.
Let's walk through some cases
Case 1: You troll hard enough so that the townspeople think you're mafia, then you have trolled enough for the mafia to think that the townspeople think that you're mafia. This only hurts the town because if the townspeople genuinely think that you're mafia, you only get lynched during day play.
Case 2: You troll just hard enough so that the townspeople don't think you're mafia, but that the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is beneficial, but this is what you would call an "inconsistent" assessment. Since Mafia have access to a superset of information, regarding alignments, as the townies during day play, it is illogical to think that mafia think that the town believes something it doesn't. <- Lots of I think that he thinks, but if you read that last sentence a few times it should be pretty clear.
Case 3: You troll hard enough so the townspeople think you're mafia, but the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is a double-edged bad situation. You get yourself voted off in day play, and just to be sure, you haven't reduced the probability of your being targeted in night play.
Case 4: You don't troll enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia, and the mafia know that you haven't trolled enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia. This is the only consistent assessment that doesn't hurt the town.
Conclusions: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Dahdum, Aces, and Matriarch, and to a lesser degree Ange, are more or less inactive. They haven't said anything of import in one way or the other. Basically only echoing previously posted sentiment or posting one off comments without having those comments materialize into legitimate accusations or votes. There is really no point in lynching any of them at this stage in the game when it is clear that lynching one of the three troublemakers (me, tofu, or claw) will actually reveal information, even if we flip a VT. If I flip medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been unfounded. If Claw flips anything other than medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been right on. My case against claw has been heavily documented and you can see it by using the filter command on my posts or his. I'd rather not get into that again.
Tofu, on the other hand, has made an interesting play. He illogically claimed detective and then apparently illogically used his vote on an inactive, which he knew would 90%+ chance yield no information. If, as he claimed, he was afraid of wasting his check on claw or me, he could've used it on Demorcef or Paschl, who actually have taken stances that alignments might shed light on. And this fear, again, was based on the assumption of there being a godfather or framer who would be lucky enough to target the same person he did (in the case of a framer) or just a 1/9 chance of him accidentally hitting a godfather.
Given that a check on me or claw would be gamebreaking, and given that his chance of being roleblocked was significantly less than 50% assuming any reasonable belief about the presence of either a Godfather or Framer and the distribution of the Framer's choices, his play was (however you look at it) suboptimal.
+ Show Spoiler [proof of suboptimality] +
Let's say he believes that, as in each of the previous 11 games, that there has been 1 roleblocker for the Mafia and that there was a p probability that that roleblocker was a framer and a 1-p probability that the roleblocker was a Godfather. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on there being a godfather was 1/9. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on their being a framer was less than or equal to 50% (which is a minimax safe strategy in a symmetric guessing game achieved by randomly choosing me or claw). Then, his probability of being roleblocked was p*(1/2) + (1-p)*(1/9), which we can see is maximized (through first order conditions and resulting corner case) where p = 1. Therefore, his probability of being role blocked in the very worst case was 50%. If, however, he more reasonably believed that the chance of a framer or a Godfather was equal (p=1/2) then his probability of being blocked was only 5/18.
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I meant "if I don't flip medic" in the 3rd to last paragraph.
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Ehhh.... the more I look at it the more I see suboptimal play all around.
I guess in a newbie game, it's a weaker argument than it might be otherwise. I guess the best way to address suboptimal play is with more suboptimal play.
Whatever. Vote me off and make what you will of my medic flip
##Unvote: No Lynch
##Vote: Gummy
It's probably better than a no lynch at this point since this actually gives you guys information you can trust without having to work through deduction or math, and since you guys don't seem to have the balls to make reasonable votes on candidates who might actually get a majority. ^_^ GL HF friends!
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##Vote: No Lynch
maybe its best to take the no lynch today..
im not gonna be useful and im not confident in any vote im going to make.
perhaps we can make the mafia untangle the medic situation.
at this point im starting to trust firm is the cop since i cant see nobody counterclaim in a newbie game.
newbie game is the point btw gummy. you cant expect everyone to play optimal in a newbie game. i dont even think you can expect everyone to know what the optimal play is.
the mafia kill is a perfect example of it.
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and fwiw selfvoting is almost never the optimal play 
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Only chance of a vote passing. Won't even let that happen.
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Gummy, reading your latest posts was like reading someone entirely different posting than on day 1. Why didn't you just play like this earlier?
As Gummy says the only way we get any real information is if we break up this triangle of Claw, Tofu and Gummy. Setting aside Tofu's detective claim leaves us with Claw and Gummy again! Just like day 1. So how to get out of this?
Paschl, you suggested no lynch and hoping for the mafia to reveal the real medic.
Although that might be possible, Mafia could also continue their strategy of confusing us and leaving us in the dark. They could just kill someone else they believe is townie. Of course they could risk getting checked but who says that this isn't a risk they are willing to take? Apparently they did take it on night 1. If they killed anyone other than Claw, Tofu and Gummy, we would be stuck again on day 3 with the same doubts about the real blue roles.
Right now we have 6 townies, 2 mafia. If we go for a no lynch and mafia just aims for killing a random townie we will be 5 townies and 2 mafia on day 3 with no clue again. Of course Tofu might be able to reveal some information but if we are unlucky his check could target a townie, a framed townie or even the killed player of the night.
I don't understand why we have to wait for another cycle to hope for more information if there is a way to get this information ourselves.
Gummy, if you truly are the medic, which I am assuming right now, than please stop this nonsense vote for yourself. Even if mafia decides to kill you in the next night, you suiciding right now is not helping at all. If we lynched you, you fliped medic, than mafia is safe to kill Tofu. If on the other hand we lynched Claw, he flips not medic, than mafia still has to kill you to be sure that they won't waste a kill on Tofu because the medic is still out there. Which would give us hopefully one more night of checking.
Therefore
##Vote: Clawtrocity
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@Paschl: Köln? Or Kaiserslautern? ^^ We from Frankfurt can't complain at all 
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##unvote:gummy
##vote:clawtrocity
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I suggested no lynch because the mafia has to start going after blues soon.
And i seriously doubt there being a framer or godfather, they would seriously fuck the balance of a small game.
Every day the cop lives we have another clear player in addition to the claimable roles.
If we want to lynch fro claw/gummy id vote claw. Im still tempted to vote gummy but the chances of the mafia claiming medic first are so much greater than the chances of the mafia counterclaiming a medic claim on day1.
And Köln 
My heart got broken today. Well thats not entirely true, my heart got broken every game this season.
:'(
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Vote Count:
Clawtrocity(2) - Gummy,Ange777
Ange777 (1) - FirmTofu
No-Lynch (1) - Paschl
With 8 alive it is 5 to lynch! Currently no one is set to be lynch.
Remember EVERYONE is required to vote, even if it is for no-lynch. Night post incoming in little less than 4 hours.
If the vote count is wrong, PM me.
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Saddest game of mafia I have ever seen no lynch is a pretty good way to lose.
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Best hope for town is probably a mod kill on claw.
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##vote: Claw
As I have said before I believe either Claw or Gummy are scum. I'm voting Claw because I personally do not want to see another no lynch. Even if it ends up that Claw was telling the truth, we will have some pretty good information.
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I thought before it wasn't the worth the risk to lynch Claw, but I don't think another night kill is worth the 1 check Firm can do, and a no-lynch day when there are fewer people and more information is better than right now.
##vote:clawtrocity
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We need the lynch for info or this situation is gets even worse. Since everyone has voted for this person already
##Vote: Clawtrocity
@Matriarch, get your format right please.
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##Vote: Clawtrocity
@Aces, happy?
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EPT
