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I would think they'd take a chance and try to hit one of 3 blue claims, but Demorcef as a target isn't too surprising. His posts made sense and he didn't stir up confusion.
Firm, your check on Matriarch confirms her as an inactive townie, I don't understand the reasoning to check her over the rest of us, she's not contributing at the same level and if she was scum, we'd learn nothing about anyone else. Regardless, we now have a confirmed innocent.
I don't know what to think on the Gummy/Claw v/v theory, seems unlikely to me but one *has* to be the medic. So even if the other is 100% scum, I don't think it's worthwhile to lynch on a 50% chance when the medic can continue to heal Firm.
It's late here so I'll reread in the morning for more analysis.
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On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote:
im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt.
he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on.
They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make.
It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today.
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imo Matriarch is a good peek. If Firm doesnt peek her she will probably be lynched at some point.
And i just threw the gummy/claw v/v thing out there. If im scum and gummy/claw are v/v i will probably let the village take care of it. (no i wouldnt, id kill gummy so fast your head would spin  ).
But I didnt realise that if there is a medic there probably is a roleblocker too.
So why didnt they just roleblock one of the medics and go for Firm? If it fails they block the other one today.
Something doesnt add up here.
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On May 04 2012 17:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote:
im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt.
he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on. They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make. It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today.
The thing is they dont have to kill him
They can just try to convince him itt that theyre not scum. Killing him on night 1 puts them out there. Especially after the day 1 we had.
Who suspected a demorcerf kill? Everybody is gonna look over his posts and see what he can find.
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On May 04 2012 16:58 dahdum wrote:
I would think they'd take a chance and try to hit one of 3 blue claims, but Demorcef as a target isn't too surprising. His posts made sense and he didn't stir up confusion.
Firm, your check on Matriarch confirms her as an inactive townie, I don't understand the reasoning to check her over the rest of us, she's not contributing at the same level and if she was scum, we'd learn nothing about anyone else. Regardless, we now have a confirmed innocent.
I don't know what to think on the Gummy/Claw v/v theory, seems unlikely to me but one *has* to be the medic. So even if the other is 100% scum, I don't think it's worthwhile to lynch on a 50% chance when the medic can continue to heal Firm.
It's late here so I'll reread in the morning for more analysis.
1) Possibility of framer on Gummy/Clawtrocity is relatively high.
2) Everyone else seemed relatively innocuous, but Matriarch seemed a bit passive/aggressive with a few lurking tendencies.
3) She was at the top of my list of suspects after reading Day 1. Aces was a close second, so I had a hard time deciding. I almost wish I had chosen Aces, but we'll see how things go.
Okay, NOW I'm going to sleep! ^_^
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@paschl - An inactive isn't a good peak unless it tells us confirms/denies/implies something about others. At best her innocence implies me since I proposed to lynch her. I can see the reasoning not to check the blue roles (why confirm for mafia) but that leaves Ange, you, Aces, and myself. We all have enough content to pick at for clues.
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Its a good peek because she is inactive, it makes the mafia get rid of her for us (sorry matriarch ^^).
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Wow DeMorcerf killed  I didn't see that coming.
@Tofu:
On May 04 2012 15:20 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:
Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: ...
Ange seems like a very likely suspect for mafia. She was actively criticized by DeMorcef and seems to be the person who would gain the most from his death. It's hard to be sure, but that's where we stand as of now.
I already explained DeMorcerf's concerns earlier. In my second post I claimed townie as I assumed that this is the way this game is played. That does not prevent me from saying that it does not make any sense to me.
If roleclaiming on day 1 while denying it's usefulness makes me scummy, this rule would have to be applied to Claw as well, as he claims his role while critizising this strategy.
On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote:
I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.
I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.
I still believe that we would have done better with a lynch on day 1. This kill does not give us much information. While you could say, that Aces and I are suspicious because DeMorcerfs had his doubts about us (which would be just stupid as people might suspect us) , I could also say that it's suspicious that none of the blue role claimers got killed. There could be one scum hidden in between them who by not breaking up this triangle could stay alive for a long time. I could also say that Paschl and dahdum tried to set Aces and me up by killing DeMorcerf just after he criticized us.
Just to be clear, I am not actively pursuing any of these theorys. I just want to point out that there are tons of possibilties and each of them is as likely as the others. After being somehow "fooled" by Gummy's theory who I believe has some explaing to do, I need to reconsider all of this first.
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So cool. I'm alive. I'm going to take another strategy and simply comment on what I see. Apparently game theoretic logic is not a good way to convince people of arguments on forum mafia.
My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me.
My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^
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@ FirmTofu, your theory has been proven not to be that effective by Ange777 and paschl already, if you still have reason to think I'm scum, please feel free to go into discussion with me.
I think it's pretty clear why the mafia didn't kill anyone of the sacred triangle of Gummy, FirmTofu and Clawtrocity. The obvious reason is they want to keep the Town in confusion about who the real medic is.It's a dumb move on the maffias part to not try to target the medic or cop, but on the same time the Town is still not quite sure about the blue roles. However opinions change.
And mine is changing quite a bit. FirmTofu, at first I did not agree at all with your inspection, especially because of the framer.
We can also quite safely confirm they have no roleblocker on their team. Reason is they would surely have blocked you, even if they doubted your claim. You can't just let a cop inspect every/a single night, it's simply not a clever thing to do. However not killing any of the suspected blue roles is also not a very clever thing to do imo as I have stated before, so we need to watch out for this mafia team as it seems they won't do the most logical thing the Town think they'll do.
Clawtrocity, you immediatly claimed you put your heal on FirmTofu whiel Gummy hasn't said A SINGLE thing yet about his heal. This is a very huge thing in my opinion.
Gummy, please don't change your playstyle. I liked how you were agressive and how you made paschl go nuts sometime. It's a very scummy move if you look at it from a certain perspective and together with the heal claim I mentioned above, you ARE looking more and more scummy to me. Or you just your hopes on this game for the second time, remember when you were sure maffia would kill you?
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I'll defend myself it it looks like there's going to be a majority on me. Given my confidence in the fact that Claw is scum, and given the irrelevance of any claims I make regarding who I saved going forward.
Logical deduction isn't the engine for this particular game, so I'm going to sit back and observe. Maybe I'll have a better time with forum Mafia next game.
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Wow, shit, mayor type error in this sentence, I'm a fucking idiot: FirmTofu, at first I did not agree at all with your inspection, especially because of the framer. I meant that I do agree with you on the possiblity of a framer in the mafia team. However, now the framer has one night to also frame either Gummy or Clawtroicity, depending on who he framed first. Maybe one of them is a likely target for this night because they would both be framed, right?
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My punctuation in previous post was messed up. I meant the second sentence of the first paragraph to be the subordinate clause leading into the first sentence of the second paragraph. My bad.
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##Unvote: Clawtrocity
##Vote: No Lynch
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On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote:
##Unvote: Clawtrocity
##Vote: No Lynch
I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority.
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On May 05 2012 01:22 Gummy wrote:I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority.
So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways.
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On May 04 2012 22:48 Gummy wrote:
So cool. I'm alive. I'm going to take another strategy and simply comment on what I see. Apparently game theoretic logic is not a good way to convince people of arguments on forum mafia.
My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me.
My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^
Gummi you saw the setups i posted earlier itt right?
Every wolf team had a roleblocker. So why wouldnt claw just block you and kill Firm?
The day after it would just be the same story again, both of you claim your heal was blocked.
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On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2012 01:22 Gummy wrote:On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote:
##Unvote: Clawtrocity
##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority. So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways.
Pretty sure I can.
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On May 05 2012 04:23 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote:On May 05 2012 01:22 Gummy wrote:On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote:
##Unvote: Clawtrocity
##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority. So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways. Pretty sure I can.
Someone else can get the train rolling today.
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EPT
